politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A minority government by another name

Second, like Spurs

rottenborough said:

For a full list of Leave's fiascos and inept messaging this week:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3555819/DAN-HODGES-Air-Force-One-landed-right-Brexiteers.html

A good read.

kle4 said:

So bottom line, his majority is not big enough for even small rebellions, none of the other parties have reason to work with him even if they agree with him, and whatever his skills resolving intra party tensions has never been one of them and is now worse than ever.

It is for this reason he will be gone before 2018(possibly even 2017) even if Remain wins - he won't be able to act.

edmundintokyo said:

On the little things he can live with it, if they mess with him on the big things he can deselect them and call a new election. He's up against Corbyn, he'd win it.

He probably would. But could he get to that point? He'd face a leadership challenge before that happens, and as we know you can win the first round of those and still have an untenable position.

Honestly, I don't mind the man continuing on if Remain win, gods knows the other candidates aren't filling me with confidence and I don't care what internal difficulties the Tories have, but I cannot see them letting him stay on. And no, Gove et al saying they want him to doesn't mean a thing, as it won't be up to them either even if they believe it.

I mostly agree with that, but this is where I disagree with Antifrank: Narked off as the skeptics may be, Cameron will be a lame duck; He won't be getting much done, and there won't be much worth stopping him from doing. If the right started organizing against him then he'd have some cards to play but that's a good reason for them not to bother.

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now.

Most optimistic post of 2016 contender right there!

So, the emergency brake on immigration - nothing to stop it being pulled now is there?

MaxPB said:

http://www.france24.com/en/20160423-german-orchestra-accuses-turks-pressure-genocide-row

Another example of why Leave must push the Turkey angle. Make it about Erdogan getting anything he asks for and how our PM got nothing.

If Cameron offers to take in 2.7 million Syrian refugees then he'll certainly have Merkel's attention.

FPT

Barnesian said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Surely the PB received wisdom, that Dave's successor will have to be a Leaver, has taken a pounding. Gove has made too many unforced errors and Boris has confirmed some dark suspicions. Many Tory MPs will conclude that this Leave lark really isn't worth the bother - why jeopardise your reputation and prospects by being associated with jokers. This has been a dark week for Tory euroscepticism. Meanwhille Osborne is firmly back in the frame.

Osborne loses to Corbyn, apart from that, a flawless plan.

My prediction.

Remain will win.
Cameron will continue as PM until the next GE with his successor ready to take over after the election.
Cameron will invite Gove back into the fold but Boris will be left out in the cold.
Boris and perhaps up to 30 Tory MPs will switch to UKIP where Boris will be elected leader.
Osborne will continue as Chancellor.
The next recession will hit in 2017/18 but by 2020 UK economy will be growing strongly with tax cuts.
Osborne's star will rise again and he will be elected Tory leader against May.
Corbyn will continue as Labour leader.
The result of the next GE will be Tory 32%, Lab 33%, UKIP 17%, LibDem 9% leading to a Labour minority Government lead by Corbyn.

Bold.

For my part, I think if Remain win, it won't by much, which is critical, as the bigger the win the longer I think Cameron can stay on to prepare the way for his successor (theoretically for time for Osborne to recover, but I find it hard to believe that's possible again, especially with economic trouble brewing).

I think Boris and Gove will both be offered something, but Boris a lesser job (somewhere above NI secretary, but below the Great Offices), daring him to openly say his first Cabinet post would be beneath him.

No more than a few defections to UKIP, if any. The grumblers will be there and very angry, but if it is a close Remain win they'll plan a leadership challenge this year they think a Leaver will win regardless, so no point in jumping ship.

Corbyn is safe for a few more years at least.

Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.

It is not just about Europe. Look at Tory councillors' consternation at plans to nationalise the schools, for instance. It goes back to GE2015. The problem is not the small majority per se but the way it was won: not by a popular campaign in favour of anything at all but by microtargetting the message that Ed Miliband was a bit of a prat The election did not, as Labour's had in 1997 with its pledge cards, involve pointing all Conservative MPs in the same direction, let alone the electorate.

This is not to question the validity of the result. Cameron won a majority -- but not a mandate to do anything in particular.

Mr. kle4, defections to UKIP would be foolish, given there's to be a change of leader. If a pro-EU sort got it, then there might be defections, but leaving the party ahead of a decision like that wouldn't be very clever.

Doesn't mean they won't happen, of course.

Indigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

On the little things he can live with it, if they mess with him on the big things he can deselect them and call a new election. He's up against Corbyn, he'd win it.

How does he deselect a MP. That is the job of constituency parties, and a lot of them are none to happy with him either at the moment and might just tell him to p*ss off.

I'm not an expert in Conservative Party rules but I thought the central party had the power to veto someone being a candidate for selection?

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?

Luckyguy1983 said:

The only party within a party is the Cameronites. They are a splinter under the nail of the Tory party, and it needs to be expelled.

For party unity sakes maybe, although that splinter did get them elected (whatever the flaws of Ed M, the alternative even to a poor opposition needs to remain plausible and, this is key, nonthreatening)

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, defections to UKIP would be foolish, given there's to be a change of leader. If a pro-EU sort got it, then there might be defections, but leaving the party ahead of a decision like that wouldn't be very clever.

Doesn't mean they won't happen, of course.

For years it seems there have been plenty of Tory MPs who seem like they wish they were UKIP but didn't have the guts of Carswell and Reckless. If they can't work up the courage to do so now, during the referendum, it is hard to see what circumstances they will.

If say 30 Tory MPs, led by Boris, form a "paraparty" (or more likely join UKIP with Boris as leader), then we might get better government. A minority Tory government will not get away with partisan legislation. There will be less legislation and what there is will be less controversial.

Barnesian said:

If say 30 Tory MPs, led by Boris, form a "paraparty" (or more likely join UKIP with Boris as leader), then we might get better government. A minority Tory government will not get away with partisan legislation. There will be less legislation and what there is will be less controversial.

Optimistic, it presumes partisanship only runs one way - obviously the Tories do and have tried to get controversial stuff through, but pretty inoffensive stuff is also probably stymied by the opposition from time to time for their own partisan purposes.

So it's right in that they will propose less partisan stuff, but also the non-partisan stuff will still get stopped too.

Barnesian said:

If say 30 Tory MPs, led by Boris, form a "paraparty" (or more likely join UKIP with Boris as leader), then we might get better government. A minority Tory government will not get away with partisan legislation. There will be less legislation and what there is will be less controversial.

I'm going to make a bold prediction here: Boris won't join UKIP and seize its leadership.

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?

Yes, lets all be one big happy family, never mind the voters, what do they know. If the government comes off sounding remotely high-handed about this, and we know if will because Cameron can't help himself, that's going to be a large chunk of disappointed Tory voters who are going to feel taken for granted, and you cant afford 2% to sit on the sofa's come 2020, never mind 10-15%

I'm not suggesting that anyone comes off high-handed, just that either way the result should be respected. That really should be uncontroversial.

Rehashing these battles for the next four years will achieve what precisely? The key to get the disappointed Tories to feel a part of the fold again is not to keep rehashing the reason why they're disappointed but to acknowledge their disappointment and move on with respect onto issues where agreement can be more readily found.

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

Hung parliament in 2020, Labour coalition government as 10 years of Tory rule combined with absolute failure to meet their own targets mean the fear of economic trouble from Labour is lessened and the SNP fear isn't effective enough to counter fatigue of Tory government.

Hopefully Dan Hannan will throw in the Tory towel and form the "Fed Up With The EU But Not A Bunch Of Incompetent Fuckwits Party", most of the sensible Kippers and the Tory right will leave to join it, the remaining selection of fruitcakes and loons will stay in UKIP and go the way of the BNP.

A party built around the principles of Hannan and Carswell but without the UKIP egos would be very attractive.

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?

But tomorrow's challenges will be.... the EU.

Mr. EICIPM, or maybe an existing PBer is *your* alter-ego!

Ed Miliband may be playing a long game*.



*Of Dungeons and Dragons^.


^I apologise to any D&D players we may have here.

Mr. EICIPM, is he a level 7 Socialist?

EICIPM said:

Ed Miliband

STR 1
DEX 1
CON 3
INT 20
WIS 10
CHA 2

Jeremy Corbyn

Str 7
Dex 3
Con 8
Int 4
Wis 1
Cha 16

Chaotic Neutral

SeanT said:

Norm said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

Firstly I'd only call it a triumph if the margin is something like 56:44 or better which is somewhat open to doubt. Secondly given the number who are only reluctantly voting Remain triumph seems to be an odd word to use anyway. It implies the man using is gloating behind his whisky.

56/44 is not a triumph. That's the NO win in Scotland and it didn't feel like a triumph, more a huge relief, and the margin wasnt big enough to put the issue to bed for a month, let alone a generation.

Cameron needs 60/40 to call it a triumph. And if he gets it he will then be able to retire with some respect.... before Europe does something awful and his deal is proven worthless and everyone decides they hate him. Then the referendum demands will start again.

Maybe so but it is about the margin where he could feel safe from the accusation that his personal duplicity etc was a decisive factor in affecting the outcome.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?

But tomorrow's challenges will be.... the EU.

I think the economy, the deficit, tax rates, health, education etc could be challenging too ...

If you think the EU is suddenly going to become a non issue if we vote to Remain then you are in for a very nasty shock. And it won't be the Eurosceptics driving it, it will be the EU itself.

The only good news here is that Osborne has almost no chance of being handed the leadership a la Gordon.

chestnut said:

felix said:

Since the clear alternative to Centrist Cameron Conservative govt is Labour under the current lunatic the lunatics on the right have clear options - it's a 1997 style rout or suck it up. Simple.

Eerily reminiscent of New Labour arrogance. It will end the same way.

DecrepitJohnL said:

It is not just about Europe. Look at Tory councillors' consternation at plans to nationalise the schools, for instance. It goes back to GE2015. The problem is not the small majority per se but the way it was won: not by a popular campaign in favour of anything at all but by microtargetting the message that Ed Miliband was a bit of a prat The election did not, as Labour's had in 1997 with its pledge cards, involve pointing all Conservative MPs in the same direction, let alone the electorate.

This is not to question the validity of the result. Cameron won a majority -- but not a mandate to do anything in particular.

Absolutely so, Mr John.

It will be a bit ironic, won`t it, if Cameron can get his policies through only when they enjoy the support of the SNP. Irony in trumps.

But Cameron only "won" the last election by grossly overspending, having found a loophole in electoral law.

And nine of his sitting MPs ought to be disqualified immediately anyway, for not complying with electoral law. No loopholes for them!

kle4 said:

EICIPM said:

Ed Miliband

STR 1
DEX 1
CON 3
INT 20
WIS 10
CHA 2

Min maxing can be be effective, as I understand it, in the right circumstances, Though I like the idea of assessing Leaders this way.

David Cameron

STR 6
Dex 15
Con 6
Int 12
WIS 9
CHA 12

Jeremy Corbyn

STR 12
DEX 1
Con 13
Int 2
WIS 1
CHA 5

Note: I've never played D&D

I would give Dave a high CON value as he seems immune to poisoning attempts e.G. by IDS.

Jeremy: a Chaotic Left Monk
Dave: a Lawful Right Bard

Michael Fallon: Barbarian for hire

Crosby: Neutral Evil Sorceror

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

No. The Tory MPs must be getting bored with the whole EU thing now. It's just a lot of grief for no other purpose than giving their more 'colourful' colleagues too much airtime. When Remain triumphs I can see everyone keenly moving on to something else.

The attempts to handwave away the views of 40%+ of the electorate never cease to amaze me.

It's not waving it away, it's accepting the result whichever way the chips fall and moving on to something more productive. What point is there rehashing yesterday's battle when there's tomorrow's challenges to unite around instead?

But tomorrow's challenges will be.... the EU.

I think the economy, the deficit, tax rates, health, education etc could be challenging too ...

If you think the EU is suddenly going to become a non issue if we vote to Remain then you are in for a very nasty shock. And it won't be the Eurosceptics driving it, it will be the EU itself.

Nah the EU has bigger fish to fry and reigniting "the British problem" is the last thing on their mind. Their priorities are saving Schengen, saving the Euro, Greece and resolving the migrant crisis. All of which we are absent partners from. We are the last thing on their mind.

Be interesting to see threads on this and Kipper prospects in those seats.

Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.

The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils if people vote as the polls currently suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/

@David_E

I believe the 'designated nomination officer' is/are (paid) contractual employees of central office. They'll do what Feldman tells them to do.

cf howard v flight in 2005 for leader's powers during GE campaign.

The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less

Telegraph:

Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.

NickPalmer said:

The D&D ratings are fun - worthy of a Xmas column.

On topic, I suspect that we are in the last 3 months of DC's premiership. If he loses, he'll quit instantly. But if he wins, I think he'll also quit, in a glow of quiet satisfaction. He'll have won the last big battle before the next GE. Why would he hang on so as to have a year or two of tedious squabbles?

Because he feels he has things left to do. Big Society etc

Mr. P, I'm sure that'll help restore harmony to the Conservatives

If people had been paying attention during the AV referendum, they would know Cameron plays to win.

What is most entertaining is the posters who were cheering him on that time, now "betrayed, disgusted, shocked and OUTRAGED" at him doing exactly the same thing, for the same reasons, and expecting the same result.

EICIPM said:

The problem will not be that LEAVE lose, it'll be that REMAIN and Cameron in particular have made it a grudge match by playing dirty. They should have expected no less

The Eurosceptics made it a grudge match in the 90s. What is happening now is just a realisation that they are on the losing side.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, I'm sure that'll help restore harmony to the Conservatives

I am not sure that is necessarily a desirable outcome. It might be better for all concerned if the closet Kippers were actually honest with their electorate and stopped standing under a false flag

Scott_P said:

Plato_Says said:

Yup, but grinning whilst Obama disses us

When is "back of the queue" a diss?

WTF has gotten (sic) into these people?

Do you never join the back of a queue? Must make you really popular in Sainsbury's

I join the back of the line when visiting Walmart in Florida.

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sounds convincing to me and was convincing enough to the electorate. Can add Foot and others to the lists.

IDS-style histrionics are far less convincing.

Nah, "vote for me because the other guy is more crap" is just a call to stay on the sofa. I want to have a reason to vote for a party, otherwise it's just the political equivalent of high street banking, where they all offer a crap service and try to win your custom on the basis of not being quite as crap as their competitors. After a while the sliver of crapness differentiating the options is so small as to be insignificant, or they are all sufficiently crap options that you can't be bothered to vote for any of them

Nah vote for me for sound governance and the other guy is crap is the entire purpose of the Conservatives. The world's oldest political party for a reason. Issues change, crap opposition is eternal.

Conservatives have reigned continously at the Buckinghamshire County Council longer than any political party has governed continuously anywhere else in the world - over 130 years.