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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dr

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I agree on the whole, though it's not true of animal policy in general - for instance, there is much more public scrutiny and challenge of animal experiments in Sweden than Britain, and one of the most controversial projects in primate research moved to Britain after being banned in Berlin. I suspect that farmers are a much less powerful lobby in Britain than experimenters, while the opposite is true in, say, France.
    I would also be keen that the UK continues to push for higher standards of animal husbandry in the EU, via our continued membership.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    I agree on the whole, though it's not true of animal policy in general - for instance, there is much more public scrutiny and challenge of animal experiments in Sweden than Britain, and one of the most controversial projects in primate research moved to Britain after being banned in Berlin. I suspect that farmers are a much less powerful lobby in Britain than experimenters, while the opposite is true in, say, France.
    Agreed. I spent a great amount of time when I was at University campaigning on behalf of the BUAV and it was always very slow going. But the point we were discussing was on animal husbandry standards and we are well ahead of most of the rest of Europe and of EU standards as a whole on that subject.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421

    No - This is new in that if remain wins, the vote of confidence in the UK will be substantial and many opportunities will open to both UK companies and those looking for inward investment. Ultimately the only way to address the current account deficit is to grow through business investment and innovation
    Again, we've heard similar so many times before.

    £172bn of overborrowing and the largest current account deficit on record are by comparison facts not bluster.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    From New York to LA

    Trump currently has 848 delegates, and needs 1,237 to secure the nomination prior to the convention. However 1,200+ should see the nomination in his hands on the first vote.

    We can make a fair number of assumptions about states still to come:
    • Trump wins Delaware (16 delegates)
    • Trump wins Pennsylvania (17 bound delegates)
    • Trump loses Nebraska
    • Trump wins West Virginia (direct election, 34 delegates)
    • Trump loses Montana
    • Trump wins New Jersey (51 delegates)
    • Trump loses South Dakota
    That puts Trump on 964 and leaves just eight states up for grabs.

    In two, Washington and Oregon, we have no polling. However both are proportional and are therefore no particularly sensitive to vote shares. We can safely assume for the purpose of argument that Trump wins 35% and fifteen and ten delegates respectively. A similar result in New Mexico would be consistent with the only polling there, netting Trump a further eight delegates. All these estimates are slightly under 538's experts, but there you go - also note that New Mexico votes right at the end of the process and is more vulnerable to swings designed to put Trump in or keep him out.

    That leaves Trump on 997, therefore needing 240 from the five remaining states of which the first three are in just three days' time.

    [Post 1 of 2]
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    [Post 2 of 2]

    Connecticut (28 delegates)

    Two polls put Trump on 48% and 50%, with leads of 20% and 24% over Kasich. That would be enough to win Trump all five congressional districts, a total of 15 delegates. Trump is likely to secure over 50% in the polls (since 15% are undecideds) and therefore get all of the remaining 13, too. Otherwise he will win six. However I'm going with all 28 here - the movement in New York was to Trump compared to the polls; it's a closed primary which favours Trump and he has the momentum to carry into this contest.

    Maryland (38 delegates)

    Polls put Trump on 43 to 47%, a lead of 15% to 20% over Kasich. Therefore we can be confident of a statewide win for Trump (14 delegates) plus most of the direct elections in CDs, if not all. I've counted in 35 which would allow for one CD to go against Trump, seven to go with him.

    Rhode Island (19 delegates)

    This is a two stage proportional state. Each of the three candidates is likely to score over 10% and under 67% in each of the state's two CDs, therefore each candidate will scoop two. A lack of polling hinders a precise figure; 50 to 60% is likely for Trump, approximately seven further delegates - a total of nine.


    Round 1 would therefore net Trump 72 delegates, leaving just two states likely to decide the nomination: Indiana (57 delegates) and California (172 delegates) - Trump would need 168 between them.

    Indiana is easier to call. The state votes on May 3 - there are no roadbumps for Trump on the calendar before then. Both recent polls put Trump on a small lead in the state, which I believe is achievable. The days of a late swing to Cruz will be gone. Thirty delegates go the winner, and the CDs are winner-takes all, with Trump likely to secure 5 of 9 (if he does win the state). Therefore he will leave Indiana with a haul of 45.

    Trump would need 123 delegates out of California. In March the consensus polling position was a single digit lead for Trump, which looked likely to falter at the ballot box. Now polling puts him 18 or even 27 points up, and likely to secure 123 delegates from the state. This is more difficult to call because Californians (well, Republicans, since it's a closed primary) will know that they can make or break Trump.

    Therefore I rate Trump's chance of winning before the Convention as highly as 50%; his chance on the first ballot 80%; and have bet accordingly.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    Do we know how many Tory MPs are planning to retire at the end of this Parliament?

    No idea. It will be interesting to see if CCHQ manage to change the rules as they proposed to remove power from the constituency parties to choose candidates.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues
    Why should remaining in the EU mean we enter a period of higher growth?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Good afternoon, my fellow queuers.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    I would also be keen that the UK continues to push for higher standards of animal husbandry in the EU, via our continued membership.
    So changed your tune then. Gone from claiming EU membership forces Britain to adopt higher standards of animal husbandry to saying that we should stay in to male the EU adopt our standards.

    What price consistency?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Good afternoon, my fellow queuers.

    You've been watching the Formula E race in Paris?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421
    Big_G in 2010:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2011:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2012:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2013:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2014:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2015:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Big_G in 2016:

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

  • Why should remaining in the EU mean we enter a period of higher growth?
    New investment and innovation
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    On topic, this theory about the EU being all ready to remake themselves in the form of a vague incoherent British Conservative alternative has already been tested several times and failed each time. The reason it fails every time isn't because the time wasn't right or the PM didn't try hard enough, it's because it was never going to happen in the first place.
  • A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues
    What growth?

    I'm loathe to mention this, but unlike one of his predecessors Osborne has failed to abolish the economic cycle and we're heading towards the 'bust' part.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,518

    Why should remaining in the EU mean we enter a period of higher growth?
    Because all the immense talent on the Leave side will start spending their time more productively?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    Yorkcity said:

    In 12 Angry Men it needed one to see the truth and build a consensus.
    True but that was only a matter of life and death. This is something far more serious :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    According to Twitter, the leader of Germany's Pirate Party has been arrested for citing the anti-Erdogan poem outside the Turkish embassy in Berlin.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,928
    edited April 2016

    Big_G in 2010:

    Big_G in 2011: Big_G in 2012: Big_G in 2013: Big_G in 2014: Big_G in 2015: Big_G in 2016:
    That is so funny seeing as I only joined in PB in September 2014
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    If it was so easy then why has it taken so long?
    Because the EU doesnt like what they are selling, or least feels it is politically unpopular so has to be seen to be pushing against it. I would be very surprised if much ends up changing after all the posturing, its rather more likely that one party walks away from the table. Not that it matters much, its got very little chance of being ratified in the US in the present climate.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Indigo said:

    Forgive me, but this is starting to sound like a CCHQ press release ;)
    I thought he had a pager set up regurgitating their propoganda.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Sandpit, seen a couple of races, but it doesn't really grab me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421

    That is so funny seeing as I only joined in PB in 2015
    But we all know that you were reading from the CCHQ propaganda sheet for many years beforehand.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    edited April 2016

    New investment and innovation
    And why should that happen? Why should companies invest in the UK after a Remain vote when they weren't willing to 3 or 4 years ago? It is simply fanciful. Why should we be more innovative inside a stagnating bloc than outside?

    What is far more likely is a gradual move of finance companies from London to Frankfurt as the EU imposes more and more restrictions on non Eurozone trading.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421

    On topic, this theory about the EU being all ready to remake themselves in the form of a vague incoherent British Conservative alternative has already been tested several times and failed each time. The reason it fails every time isn't because the time wasn't right or the PM didn't try hard enough, it's because it was never going to happen in the first place.

    Indeed.

    And the EU makes no secret of that.
  • Yorkcity said:

    I thought he had a pager set up regurgitating their propoganda.
    Why would anyone listen in CCHQ to me. I am my own person and am prepared to express my view as honestly as possible and hopefully debate with courtesy anyone who does not hold my view. At 72 life is too short to get angry
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    On topic, this theory about the EU being all ready to remake themselves in the form of a vague incoherent British Conservative alternative has already been tested several times and failed each time. The reason it fails every time isn't because the time wasn't right or the PM didn't try hard enough, it's because it was never going to happen in the first place.

    Indeed. It is, I am afraid, a peculiar arrogance of the Europhile British politician that he thinks he can mould the EU in the way he moulded the Empire.
  • But we all know that you were reading from the CCHQ propaganda sheet for many years beforehand.

    I do like your comment. It is good to have a sense of humour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Tyndall, they probably feel better telling themselves that than admitting the UK is changing to suit the EU rather than the other way around.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    because they will all be jockeying for position and most of them will want to kill off Osborne.

    Dave will become increasingly irrelevant in a party he has struggled to manage.
    Alan when Cameron goes , do you think he will get fulsome applause from the Conservative parliamenterians as Blair did in 2007 ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    So changed your tune then. Gone from claiming EU membership forces Britain to adopt higher standards of animal husbandry to saying that we should stay in to male the EU adopt our standards.

    What price consistency?
    I cannot recall arguing that the EU forces better standards of animal husbandry here. Can you quote me saying that?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Indeed. It is, I am afraid, a peculiar arrogance of the Europhile British politician that he thinks he can mould the EU in the way he moulded the Empire.
    I'd be very surprised if he thought he could either. The renegotiation thing was a device to get Cameron through the last election without telling the voters whether he supported Brexit or the status quo.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421

    And why should that happen? Why should companies invest in the UK after a Remain vote when they weren't willing to 3 or 4 years ago? It is simply fanciful. Why shioulod we be more innovative inside a stagnating bloc than outside?

    What is far more likely is a gradual move of finance companies from London to Frankfurt as the EU imposes more and more restrictions on non Eurozone trading.
    Its no point in discussing facts with faith fanatics.

    Big_G has faith that this 'new investment and innovation' will come because the high priests of his faith (the leadership of the Conservative party) have told him it will.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    On topic, this theory about the EU being all ready to remake themselves in the form of a vague incoherent British Conservative alternative has already been tested several times and failed each time. The reason it fails every time isn't because the time wasn't right or the PM didn't try hard enough, it's because it was never going to happen in the first place.

    And that's why we should Leave.
  • timetrompettetimetrompette Posts: 111
    edited April 2016
    Yorkcity said:

    Alan when Cameron goes , do you think he will get fulsome applause from the Conservative parliamenterians as Blair did in 2007 ?
    That was a low point for the Tories wasn't it?

    Cameron the disciple, was saluting his mentor.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    No - This is new in that if remain wins, the vote of confidence in the UK will be substantial and many opportunities will open to both UK companies and those looking for inward investment. Ultimately the only way to address the current account deficit is to grow through business investment and innovation
    The economy can grow but that does not mean the current account deficit will deficit will decrease. For that to happen we must export more and/or import less; GDP per se is irrelevant.

    Inward investment is also not a universal good. The likes of Honda setting up a modern car factory here is definitely a good thing. Someone buying a UK business stripping out all the IP and then shutting production also counts as inward investment but is actually harmful.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. Tyndall, they probably feel better telling themselves that than admitting the UK is changing to suit the EU rather than the other way around.

    It has been a bit of both over the last 4 decades, we have become more like them, and they are more like us.

    Its whether you like this process or not that drives people to choose sides in this referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Miss Plato, suspect the Angered figure is the key one. Annoyance or being pleased will be easily forgotten in a few months. Anger might not.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Dr. Foxinsox, over recent years we've lost (given away by the smirking charlatan) half the rebate, surrendered vetoes to QMV, seen our contributions rise and... what have we got back, exactly?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Indeed. It is, I am afraid, a peculiar arrogance of the Europhile British politician that he thinks he can mould the EU in the way he moulded the Empire.
    Isnt that exactly what has happened though? We have witnessed the Thatcherisation of the continent as a direct result of the Single Market. Now State Aid is only allowed under proscribed circumstances and the forced marketisation of whole swathes of the economy, from transport, energy, and whole other areas on top of the more traditional battles during the eighties.

    There is still a lot of subsidised industry in the EU, but under the banner of the single market, and the ECJ insistence that governments do not subsidise in order to give a competitive edge over other member states this has reduced and continues to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,152
    Hmm. Personally sceptical of this poll. We'll see in the coming days.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Dr. Foxinsox, over recent years we've lost (given away by the smirking charlatan) half the rebate, surrendered vetoes to QMV, seen our contributions rise and... what have we got back, exactly?

    Quite a few things. A decline in the CAP to 38% or budget from over 70%, and that shifting from producer subsidies to stewardship of land and rural development. We drove the expansion of the EU to the East, drove down protectionism across the continent, drove the single market in services. That sort of thing.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    I'd be very surprised if he thought he could either. The renegotiation thing was a device to get Cameron through the last election without telling the voters whether he supported Brexit or the status quo.
    Apologies. I wasn't actually thinking of Cameron in that particular case. I agree that was just him trying to get re-elected. I was thinking of those who advocate full bloodied involvement in the EU and believe we can shape it to our vision.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    That was a low point for the Tories wasn't it?

    Cameron the disciple, was saluting his mentor.
    Cameron read the Unfinished Revoultion by Philip Gould and copied Blair hook line and sinker.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Again, we've heard similar so many times before.

    £172bn of overborrowing and the largest current account deficit on record are by comparison facts not bluster.
    What spending would you like to cut? What taxes would you like to raise?

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    Makeshift camps will be set up to help the sick if Accident & Emergency departments cannot cope with the first ever full walk-out by junior doctors next week. Hospitals have cancelled more than 125,000 operations and appointments as health officials warned that the service is facing “an unprecedented situation during a time of heightened risk”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/23/makeshift-nhs-camps-set-up-to-cope-with-casualties-during-strike/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954

    That was a low point for the Tories wasn't it?

    Cameron the disciple, was saluting his mentor.
    Dave just wanted to look gracious, knowing he was the one on the way up.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421
    perdix said:

    What spending would you like to cut? What taxes would you like to raise?

    EU
    Overseas Aid
    Quangos
    Pretendy charities
    HS2
    Hinckley C
    HTB
    Triple lock pensions

    I'd also surcharge Letwin for the Kids Company money and Cameron for the cost of the EU propaganda

    Taxes to be increased on consumption of imported tat and housing.


  • A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Why should remaining in the EU mean we enter a period of higher growth?

    New investment and innovation

    And why should that happen? Why should companies invest in the UK after a Remain vote when they weren't willing to 3 or 4 years ago? It is simply fanciful. Why shioulod we be more innovative inside a stagnating bloc than outside?

    What is far more likely is a gradual move of finance companies from London to Frankfurt as the EU imposes more and more restrictions on non Eurozone trading.

    Its no point in discussing facts with faith fanatics.

    A lot of the Companies will be high tec high wage ones as UKPLC enters a period of sustained growth with higher tax revenues

    Why should remaining in the EU mean we enter a period of higher growth?

    New investment and innovation

    And why should that happen? Why should companies invest in the UK after a Remain vote when they weren't willing to 3 or 4 years ago? It is simply fanciful. Why shioulod we be more innovative inside a stagnating bloc than outside?

    What is far more likely is a gradual move of finance companies from London to Frankfurt as the EU imposes more and more restrictions on non Eurozone trading.

    Its no point in discussing facts with faith fanatics.

    Big_G has faith that this 'new investment and innovation' will come because the high priests of his faith (the leadership of the Conservative party) have told him it will.


    No one tells me anything (apart from Mrs Big G)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Dr. Foxinsox, that shift, according to Wikipedia, is from 1984 to 2014. It's still around €58bn. I'd also want to know how the EU budget varied, because if it doubled over that period then the actual amount spent on the CAP has increased rather than declined.

    I'd also like to know what we contributed in 1984 or thereabouts (tried searching, couldn't find it).

    As a list of plus points, it's unpersuasive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,152
    Day two (or is or is it three) of Obama visit, and still leading Leavers are busy attacking the man and the process:

    "the third-rate president of the United States"
    Heffer in Daily Telegraph.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Here's the photo we've all been waiting for!!!

    https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/723900840805838848
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited April 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Here's the photo we've all been waiting for!!!

    https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/723900840805838848

    Oh god, I thought I was joking earlier when I posted a snarky post about hasn't Obama got a tee time to make...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Hmm. Personally sceptical of this poll. We'll see in the coming days.
    Polling rule #173, present many options where you're going to lump them together later.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,073
    The 41% are the same 41% who would have voted Out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited April 2016

    Day two (or is or is it three) of Obama visit, and still leading Leavers are busy attacking the man and the process:

    "the third-rate president of the United States"
    Heffer in Daily Telegraph.

    I don't agree with Heffer on much, but he is right about Obama. His time as president will be defined simply as first black president, the rest is a rubbish and he spends more time pissing about on the golf course than all previous presidents put together.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,421
    Sandpit said:

    Here's the photo we've all been waiting for!!!

    https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/723900840805838848

    Is Cameron being the caddy ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,073
    notme said:

    There is still a lot of subsidised industry in the EU, but under the banner of the single market, and the ECJ insistence that governments do not subsidise in order to give a competitive edge over other member states this has reduced and continues to.

    Is there much subsidised industry in the EU anymore?

  • I don't agree with Heffer on much, but he is right about Obama. His time as president will be reminded simply as first black president, the rest is a disaster.
    Who was the last Democrat you approved of, FU?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,488

    Hmm. Personally sceptical of this poll. We'll see in the coming days.
    Me too. There seem to be more negative options than positive ones; it's not anything like a real Likert scale. 'Concerned' should have been an option; this is Project Fear after all. Commissioned by a Leave supporting paper? On the other hand, the annoyed and angered numbers are interesting.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited April 2016

    Who was the last Democrat you approved of, FU?

    There were actually a lot of positives about Clinton time in office. Bonking everything that moved obviously not being one of them.

    But Obama has managed to make Bush look sensitive, especially the "stunt" when he did the brief press conference after the American got beheaded and then seen laughing and joking around the links 5 minutes later.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Anyways today or in the next few days York City will be relegated from the Football League.
    The club are still waiting to go to their new gound away from the city centre.
    With promises of a new start after years of renegotation ,with the local authority , business and other intrested parties.

    Hopefully not a metaphor for how Britian goes over the next few years.
    An old established club with no debt shafted by owners, who transfered the assets and sold the ground to a holding company.
  • Makeshift camps will be set up to help the sick if Accident & Emergency departments cannot cope with the first ever full walk-out by junior doctors next week. Hospitals have cancelled more than 125,000 operations and appointments as health officials warned that the service is facing “an unprecedented situation during a time of heightened risk”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/23/makeshift-nhs-camps-set-up-to-cope-with-casualties-during-strike/

    In the meantime Dave's out playing golf with his 'special relationship'.

    I'm guessing he was told at the first tee, that Obama was going to win regardless of the score.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,152

    I don't agree with Heffer on much, but he is right about Obama. His time as president will be defined simply as first black president, the rest is a rubbish and he spends more time pissing about on the golf course than all previous presidents put together.
    It doesn't matter whether he is crap POTUS or not, my point is that there is yet another Leave article moaning about Cameron and his tactics (this time using his old basketball buddy Obama). It's all process, process.

    Where is the reasoned response to Obama's points about the mythical anglo-saxon trading nirvana that will exist after we leave?

    Silence.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2016

    Dr. Foxinsox, that shift, according to Wikipedia, is from 1984 to 2014. It's still around €58bn. I'd also want to know how the EU budget varied, because if it doubled over that period then the actual amount spent on the CAP has increased rather than declined.

    I'd also like to know what we contributed in 1984 or thereabouts (tried searching, couldn't find it).

    As a list of plus points, it's unpersuasive.

    In 1984 we were the 3rd biggest net contributor to the EU budget:

    http://money-go-round.eu/Year.aspx?year=1984&method=abs

    Of course the EU was much smaller then, so you would expect it to have a smaller budget.

    Just one of the many changes that we have encouraged in the EU. QMV was something that Thatchers government wanted in order to get past the French veto.

    We certainly have had a positive effect on the EU in our 4 decades of membership.
  • Is Cameron being the caddy ?
    He could certainly do with the exercise.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    Is there much subsidised industry in the EU anymore?

    EDF? In all seriousness there seems to be an awful lot of subsidised industry and not just in the EU (Boeing?) as countries continue to look after what they perceive as their core interests. In the UK, BAe aside, no.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    It doesn't matter whether he is crap POTUS or not, my point is that there is yet another Leave article moaning about Cameron and his tactics (this time using his old basketball buddy Obama). It's all process, process.

    Where is the reasoned response to Obama's points about the mythical anglo-saxon trading nirvana that will exist after we leave?

    Silence.
    Oh I am sure his "star power" and all the media still fawning over his coolness won't hurt the Remain cause.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977


    I don't agree with Heffer on much, but he is right about Obama. His time as president will be defined simply as first black president, the rest is a rubbish and he spends more time pissing about on the golf course than all previous presidents put together.

    I doubt he beats Eisenhower on that score.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,152

    He could certainly do with the exercise.
    Ouch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,073
    edited April 2016

    The economy can grow but that does not mean the current account deficit will deficit will decrease. For that to happen we must export more and/or import less; GDP per se is irrelevant.

    From a straight technical perspective, that's not quite right. GDP is calculated as:

    Spending (sometimes called Aggregate Demand)
    +
    Exports
    -
    Imports

    So, if you could lower imports, without lowering aggregate demand, then you would decrease the current account deficit while increasing GDP.

    It is also important to know that the one economic measure which correlated almost perfectly with the current account deficit is the savings rate. Countries where people save more (Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands) have current account surpluses; countries where people spend more (us, the US, and Spain and Portugal in the old days) have current account deficits.

    Policies that attempt to get the economy moving by suppressing saving - as have happened under various policy moves by our current government - will tend therefore to increase the current account deficit.

    A lot of the 'solutions' to solving the current account deficit are attempts to solve the symptoms. Unless we - as a country - collectively save more, we cannot sustainably improve our current account.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,073

    EDF? In all seriousness there seems to be an awful lot of subsidised industry and not just in the EU (Boeing?) as countries continue to look after what they perceive as their core interests. In the UK, BAe aside, no.
    EDF is owned (85%) by the French state, but it does not receive cash injections from the French government. It supplies electricity to French businesses and consumers, charges for it, and pays dividends to its shareholders. (Which include the French state.)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of the 'solutions' to solving the current account deficit are attempts to solve the symptoms. Unless we - as a country - collectively save more, we cannot sustainably improve our current account.

    Which means saving has to look attractive to the man in the street, and at current interest rates, and with current levels of government meddling with the public finances, it doesn't.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I don't agree with Heffer on much, but he is right about Obama. His time as president will be defined simply as first black president, the rest is a rubbish and he spends more time pissing about on the golf course than all previous presidents put together.
    Bush (jr) used to take a lot of grief about his golfing habits.

    Yet Obama who plays even more seems to take less stick over it, curious.

    I should point out that I am not a fan of the Bush presidency, but Obama has been pretty poor also.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    EDF is owned (85%) by the French state, but it does not receive cash injections from the French government. It supplies electricity to French businesses and consumers, charges for it, and pays dividends to its shareholders. (Which include the French state.)
    Errr hasn't the french govt just put in a whole pile of cash in to EDF ?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-power-utility-edf-to-raise-4-billion-in-new-shares-to-finance-projects-1461352100
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    So, if you could lower imports, without lowering aggregate demand, then you would decrease the current account deficit while increasing GDP.

    It is also important to know that the one economic measure which correlated almost perfectly with the current account deficit is the savings rate. Countries where people save more (Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands) have current account surpluses; countries where people spend more (us, the US, and Spain and Portugal in the old days) have current account deficits.

    If you are maintaining aggregate demand and lowering imports then it follows you must be capable of fulfilling that extra demand domestically, which requires domestic manufacturing, which is a bit of a problem for us when the government is strangling any manufacturing it sees, and you need that manufacturing to be competitive with the imported tat so people buy local tat, which isn't going to happen with third world labour rates and idiotic UK energy prices.

    I guess the point about saving rates makes sense. If you are putting your money in the bank, you are not spending it on imported tat, so the level of imports should be lower.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,073

    Errr hasn't the french govt just put in a whole pile of in to EDF ?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/french-power-utility-edf-to-raise-4-billion-in-new-shares-to-finance-projects-1461352100
    My understanding, and I am by no means an expert on this, is that EDF is having a rights issue, and the French government is excercising its pre-emption rights, as a major shareholder.
  • timetrompettetimetrompette Posts: 111
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    My understanding, and I am by no means an expert on this, is that EDF is having a rights issue, and the French government is excercising its pre-emption rights, as a major shareholder.
    So, a clever way of getting around the subsidy rules?

    It's a shame other governments cannot follow their lead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Lots of empty seats at Wembley. If they wanted to play in the evening they should have gone to Villa Park or St James's Park.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    rcs1000 said:

    Is there much subsidised industry in the EU anymore?

    Implicitly, yes, via trade protection. Which though not very high in the conventional sense i.e. tariffs, remains significant in the form of non-tariff barriers.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    rcs1000 said:

    My understanding, and I am by no means an expert on this, is that EDF is having a rights issue, and the French government is excercising its pre-emption rights, as a major shareholder.
    well it's one of those fun mysteries is it a rights issue to expand or just bail them out ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667



    Agreed. I spent a great amount of time when I was at University campaigning on behalf of the BUAV and it was always very slow going. But the point we were discussing was on animal husbandry standards and we are well ahead of most of the rest of Europe and of EU standards as a whole on that subject.

    Yes, you're right.

    Amazing how often we agree on stuff, isn't it? Shows the limitations of the left-right axis in defining how much people overlap.

    By the way, the London postal votes landed today. Jez we Khan!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    My understanding, and I am by no means an expert on this, is that EDF is having a rights issue, and the French government is excercising its pre-emption rights, as a major shareholder.
    If one were being cynical, one might suggest that the whole structure of EDF was set up to skirt carefully around EU procurement and state ownership rules.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    From a straight technical perspective, that's not quite right. GDP is calculated as:

    Spending (sometimes called Aggregate Demand)
    +
    Exports
    -
    Imports

    So, if you could lower imports, without lowering aggregate demand, then you would decrease the current account deficit while increasing GDP.

    It is also important to know that the one economic measure which correlated almost perfectly with the current account deficit is the savings rate. Countries where people save more (Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands) have current account surpluses; countries where people spend more (us, the US, and Spain and Portugal in the old days) have current account deficits.

    Policies that attempt to get the economy moving by suppressing saving - as have happened under various policy moves by our current government - will tend therefore to increase the current account deficit.

    A lot of the 'solutions' to solving the current account deficit are attempts to solve the symptoms. Unless we - as a country - collectively save more, we cannot sustainably improve our current account.
    Well said.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    There were actually a lot of positives about Clinton time in office. Bonking everything that moved obviously not being one of them.
    Clinton has wall-to-wall charisma, and the sort of folky way that makes him easy to like. For me the big problem with Clinton were

    a) repealing Glass-Steagall (although to be fair it was mostly toothless by the time he got to it)
    b) Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 - letting depository and casino banks merge.
    c) Community Reinvestment Act - pressuring banks to lend to bad credit risks

    Resulting in...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Indigo said:

    Clinton has wall-to-wall charisma, and the sort of folky way that makes him easy to like. For me the big problem with Clinton were

    a) repealing Glass-Steagall (although to be fair it was mostly toothless by the time he got to it)
    b) Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 - letting depository and casino banks merge.
    c) Community Reinvestment Act - pressuring banks to lend to bad credit risks

    Resulting in...
    C) I think is the most valid of the criticism.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    rcs1000 said:

    The 41% are the same 41% who would have voted Out.
    so disproportionately more likely to be Conservatives.

    Clever Cameron
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    well it's one of those fun mysteries is it a rights issue to expand or just bail them out ?
    It would be ridiculous to draw a line between raising capital from the French government qua shareholder and the French government qua national government.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667



    Agreed. I spent a great amount of time when I was at University campaigning on behalf of the BUAV and it was always very slow going. But the point we were discussing was on animal husbandry standards and we are well ahead of most of the rest of Europe and of EU standards as a whole on that subject.

    Yes, you're right.

    Amazing how often we agree on stuff, isn't it? Shows the limitations of the left-right axis in defining how much people overlap.

    By the way, the London postal votes landed today. Jez we Khan!

    Edit: the postal voting is SO bloody complicated. Fill in form 1 using this electoral system, then form 2 using that electoral system (personal Assembly vote), then form 3 using a third electoral system (party Assembly vote), then put them all in envelope A, filling out details on the detachable postal voting slip, but do not detach it, then seal envelope A, no you can't seal it by licking the envelope, stupid, that would be too easy, you've got to find the fucking removable adhesive strip contra-intuitively located at the hinge, then carefully insert in envelope B.

    Look, I have a PhD in mathematics and I'm a former member of Mensa, but really, if they'd set out to make it a challenge, they'd have done well.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    The 41% are the same 41% who would have voted Out.
    31% don't know, don't care, don't pay attention.

    Turnout ceiling 69%?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Woops looks like my musing about (censored) in preparation for (censored) got censored.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The 41% are the same 41% who would have voted Out.
    Not exactly what we found this morning. Some REMAINERs and Undecideds very upset with Obama.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132
    edited April 2016
    I'd been wondering why there's been a recent dearth of regurgitated tweets from Iain Martin by his number one fan.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/723862570139017216

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/723863670611169280
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    What do they give as a reason? Here it is overwhelming down to delays / changes in people benefit payments, rather than not enough benefits.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    I would hope that young George's nursery school discourages the use of phrases like "piss off". Time for that when he gets to junior school.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132

    I would hope that young George's nursery school discourages the use of phrases like "piss off". Time for that when he gets to junior school.
    That's what happens when you spend too much time with great grandpa.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Britain would be (X) effective at fighting terrorism if it left the EU: More: 24% Less: 28% [No diff.]: 40% (via YouGov / 22 Apr)

    Britain's special relationship with the US would be (X) by leaving the EU: Strengthened: 7% Weakened: 23% [No diff.]: 59% (YouGov / 22 Apr)

    Plato must have forgotten to post these two bits of the poll :)
This discussion has been closed.