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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dream
Remember the government’s EU renegotiation? It was a big deal back in February when it was agreed after a marathon European Council summit and has been little heard of since. True, the five points do briefly appear in the government’s referendum leaflet but hardly any of the campaigning for or against membership has bothered to reference them. They are now essentially an irrelevance.
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Computers are a pain in the **** sometimes, aren't they?
On topic, I agree with David, but one has to concede that change in the EU, for good or ill, is slow. Gradual reform is a feasible project, as is gradual integration or gradual scaling back. Dramatic stuff, good or bad, won't happen. Which in turn is a reason why some of the scare stuff - European army, for instance - is misplaced. I should like to see serious integration to the point that people routinely say "I'm European", but I don't expect to in my lifetime.
I doubt repair will be that easy or quick for the Tory party after the referendum. Not sure they did a back up before marching into vitriolic dispute.
The real question is what would a split on the Tory party do the the odds or likelihood of a split in Labour too? Ages ago I suggested that both parties could split post referendum, and i still think it is a possibility.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.
On topic. The EU is IMHO unreformable. The only thing that might shock the EU elite out of their complacency is one of the two large net contributors telling them to stuff their project up their...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gioTzvFxiUY
All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.
Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
Fundamentally the EU bureaucracy doesn’t believe it needs to change, and presently an easy majority of the EU and it’s most powerful nations also don’t think it needs to change. Not in any meaningful way, just minor things to shut populists up. Without genuine acceptance of need for change, I cannot believe real change will come, that’s what turned me from a Remainer to a Leaver in the first place, and I cannot see what in the halls of power of the EU will change – the same pressures will be there, even worse than before, but in event of Remain they’ll have dodged a bullet and continue on as usual.
This analysis was pretty much cross party followed on by the Blair government every bit as much as Major. Blair's "mistake" about not phasing the introduction of freedom of movement to those countries was based on a serious miscalculation of the draw factor of the UK but it was driven by a desire to find new friends and allies in the EU who would help shape it the way we wanted.
Now we are in a position where we actually wanted reform, albeit of a nature that only a minority in the EU would want and we are hoist on our own petard. Reforming the EU so that those not in the EZ have adequate protections proved beyond Cameron and would almost certainly have proved beyond anyone else. Ironically, the best prospect of reform now is by the UK leaving, probably with at least 2 other non EZ members and the EFTA type arrangement becoming the associate style membership we and the EZ both need.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?
They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.
We vote Out, no deal with anyone, we abolish tariffs on imports.
Then it's up to us whether we choose to impose the protections on the NHS which the left calls for. That would be a safer route to that goal than relying on the EU and QMV.
The same goes for any other industry or activity we may (albeit foolishly) wish to protect.
If the French want to protect champagne from British exports, fine. There are other markets.
Meanwhile we enjoy world prices for our imports.
It's not even that they are reacting to things in a supine way; they are actively working to bring it about. Listen to what Fallon, Hammond, Osborne are saying. You could really weep.
They need to resolve quickly
"The situation has developed, not necessarily to the United Kingdom's advantage"
£50m lawsuit coming.
Leave is 3.25 on main market but arbitrage opportunity - all Leave bands on bands market only sum to 3.75.
As a liberal, why do you want to meddle in the affairs of other nations?
first they came for the satirists, then they came for the journalists now they're coming for the symphony orchestras
Turkey demands Dresdner Sympnony Orchestra pulls production becuase it features the Armenian genocide.
Amazingly the germans have started making concessions by shutting down the turkish web page for the production.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/buehne-und-konzert/tuerkei-interveniert-gegen-konzertprojekt-der-dresdner-sinfoniker-14195273.html
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
Remain means further in, not the status quo. And as Justine Greening said on 'Any Questions' last night, there won't be another referendum in the next decade.
We should start by being clear about what is meant by 'reform'. A UK perspective would be that this means less trade protectionism, less intrusive regulation, a return of powers to member states, perhaps a reduction in the powers of the Commission. No rise in the budget.
For most Europeans, this agenda would be considered 'anti-reform', Their agenda might include - moves to a common fiscal policy, full banking union, and increase in the EU budget possibly financed by more EU-wide taxes, a single judicial system and increased integration of foreign and security policy.
It should be obvious that these two visions are entirely incompatible, and the likelihood of the former being followed is very low given the balance of opinion in the EU.
Another reason the EU will be keen to speed up agenda 2 i.e. tighter political integration is that the economic integration approach is getting close to exhaustion. The single market has not created a massive increase in integration, contrary to initial expectations.
This has been most striking in the case of the UK - because the EU is growing so slowly compared to the rest of the world, the structure of UK trade is now tilting sharply away from the EU and this pattern will continue despite the structural factors (EU protectionism) that bias UK trade toward the EU. The income effect is dominant.
Even in the case of 'REMAIN' in June, the EU is likely to become increasingly less important to the UK economically. This raises the danger of ultimate exit. As a result, the EU will I think quickly move to try to make future UK exit more costly/difficult by speeding up integration in other areas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.
Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
"The dates of Patrick's life cannot be fixed with certainty but, on a widespread interpretation, he was active as a missionary in Ireland during the second half of the fifth century."
As others have said, the most likely any "reform" will be either nothing of the sort or a blind for further power grabs from the center, making the situation worse not better.
Remain, are however, pushing strongly against Leave, and Leave are struggling to combat their onslaught.
I correctly guessed 7 of the 8 plays featured.
Unless born of a simple malevolence toward British food production, how do you justify this position?
- M. H. Thatcher, Tory Conference 1983.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvz8tg4MVpA
I would like to see evidence that chlorinated chicken is harmful, if there is evidence then trade barriers are reasonable.
Plus ca change etc
Is there something wrong with that ?
https://twitter.com/NoThanksEU/status/723865755205394432
I think the Obama thing could play very badly for Remain. At my work this morning, people (even ones who said they liked Obama generally) were incensed at the idea of "America again coming over and treating us like their poodle, telling us what to do".