politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dream
Remember the government’s EU renegotiation? It was a big deal back in February when it was agreed after a marathon European Council summit and has been little heard of since. True, the five points do briefly appear in the government’s referendum leaflet but hardly any of the campaigning for or against membership has bothered to reference them. They are now essentially an irrelevance.
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Congratulations Rob!
Computers are a pain in the **** sometimes, aren't they?0 -
Seconded. P/S Yes they are.MyBurningEars said:Congratulations Rob!
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Congrats Rob0
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When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.0
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Must disagree. Still, if we end up staying, perhaps I'll be proved wrong.0
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Thanks, Rob! The backup solution wasn't bad either.
On topic, I agree with David, but one has to concede that change in the EU, for good or ill, is slow. Gradual reform is a feasible project, as is gradual integration or gradual scaling back. Dramatic stuff, good or bad, won't happen. Which in turn is a reason why some of the scare stuff - European army, for instance - is misplaced. I should like to see serious integration to the point that people routinely say "I'm European", but I don't expect to in my lifetime.0 -
Normality returns with ease - Thank you Robert.
I doubt repair will be that easy or quick for the Tory party after the referendum. Not sure they did a back up before marching into vitriolic dispute.
The real question is what would a split on the Tory party do the the odds or likelihood of a split in Labour too? Ages ago I suggested that both parties could split post referendum, and i still think it is a possibility.0 -
US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.
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Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that0
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Well done Robert to get the server back up and running. Next Donate button funds to go towards an AWS instance?
On topic. The EU is IMHO unreformable. The only thing that might shock the EU elite out of their complacency is one of the two large net contributors telling them to stuff their project up their...
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Its all kicking off in the Premier League today. Failed drugs tests and injunctions (which again took all of 2 secs to work out, why do they bother...the papers have got really good at dropping enough hints to be able to deduce who it is)...Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
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Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.
All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.
Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...0 -
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.Sandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditableGIN1138 said:Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.
All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.
Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...0 -
That might be the case, but I for one could have been persuaded by a better deal, although it would be unlikely as it would need to be a very very good one, and I think the calculation was even a good deal after more crises would not pass the public.
Sceptics would no doubt argue that another year would have made little difference; that the EU has had decades to reform and has done nothing more than accrue powersThe EU still hasn’t really come to institutional grips with the Eurozone crisis, never mind the challenges of the recent mass migration... That necessity offers an opportunity to those wanting a quid pro quo written into the treaties.
That's not a reason why things might change. It's a reason things should, but as you say they haven't come to grips with the problems yet, why would they now?there comes a point when the domestic electoral consequences outweigh the diplomatic gains from appearing a Good European. That point is already here for some and near for others.
You'd hope. Where's the proof? The EU has always talked of reform and caring about concerns of people, but when push comes to shove speaks with absolute contempt of those who suggest genuine changes. Juncker talked about the EU meddling too much in the little things, but still suggested they needed to cooperate more in economic matters, and no way they cooperate more, integrate more, in one area and not the others if they can help it.
Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.
…money. Those countries that most need reform in the EU are by and large those which pay in most. That is a powerful lever to extract concessions from the rest.
I wish that were so, in the event of Remain, but I fail to be convinced – you’re arguing to cumulative effect of these three strains of pressure for reform mean it will have to come, but I think it underplays the extent of bull headedness.
Either way, Cameron’s February negotiation is likely to have been only the starter; the main course is still to come.
Fundamentally the EU bureaucracy doesn’t believe it needs to change, and presently an easy majority of the EU and it’s most powerful nations also don’t think it needs to change. Not in any meaningful way, just minor things to shut populists up. Without genuine acceptance of need for change, I cannot believe real change will come, that’s what turned me from a Remainer to a Leaver in the first place, and I cannot see what in the halls of power of the EU will change – the same pressures will be there, even worse than before, but in event of Remain they’ll have dodged a bullet and continue on as usual.
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I well remember one celeb injunction that the Mail had great fun with, the silhouette sample graphic wasn't hard to recogniseFrancisUrquhart said:
Its all kicking off in the Premier League today. Failed drugs tests and injunctions (which again took all of 2 secs to work out, why do they bother...the papers have got really good at dropping enough hints to be able to deduce who it is)...Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
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We are irrelevant alreadyBig_G_NorthWales said:
The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditableGIN1138 said:Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.
All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.
Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...0 -
The EU has got progressively more difficult to reform as it has grown bigger. From a UK perspective this is not an accident. The UK were very supportive of the introduction of the eastern European countries of the former soviet bloc for a range of reasons but an important one was that it was thought that this would make further integration difficult creating a broader but shallower EU and the control previously exercised by the Franco-German axis would be diluted.
This analysis was pretty much cross party followed on by the Blair government every bit as much as Major. Blair's "mistake" about not phasing the introduction of freedom of movement to those countries was based on a serious miscalculation of the draw factor of the UK but it was driven by a desire to find new friends and allies in the EU who would help shape it the way we wanted.
Now we are in a position where we actually wanted reform, albeit of a nature that only a minority in the EU would want and we are hoist on our own petard. Reforming the EU so that those not in the EZ have adequate protections proved beyond Cameron and would almost certainly have proved beyond anyone else. Ironically, the best prospect of reform now is by the UK leaving, probably with at least 2 other non EZ members and the EFTA type arrangement becoming the associate style membership we and the EZ both need.0 -
My understanding is that usually UEFA punish the player not the club, unless doping is considered institutionalised at the club.Sandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
As a remainer I do not enjoy seeing leave in the position they find themselves but that is not remains fault. There is a strong argument for both remain and leave but leave are failing to make itMarkHopkins said:US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.0 -
I seemed to remember (based upon a previous recent case) there are specific rules about if you have more than x players fail the tests, the club is punished, otherwise it is the individual. I can't remember the number for x, 4 rings a bell for some reason.TheScreamingEagles said:
My understanding is that usually UEFA punish the player not the club, unless doping is considered institutionalised at the club.Sandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?0 -
If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop itAlanbrooke said:When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.
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Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
Goddamnit Liverpool. I don't suppose they'd accept the argument that in most cases having Sakho play is actually a benefit to our opponents.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
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Apparently Cameron's inability to persuade his own electorate is a strengthMarkHopkins said:US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.0 -
BBC now saying that it's a player charge and there can't be sanctions against the club. Let's hope so, but he will be missed today and on Thursday. Fingers crossed he's not done anything stupid, but if he's guilty then he needs to be punished appropriately.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.Sandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
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https://twitter.com/Iandennisbbc/status/723856351923961856Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.Richard_Tyndall said:
If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop itAlanbrooke said:When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.
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Would serve their fans right though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.0 -
Didn't he score against Dortmund and is this test from that game. Sky seem to say it could have ramifications for LiverroolSandpit said:
BBC now saying that it's a player charge and there can't be sanctions against the club. Let's hope so, but he will be missed today and on Thursday. Fingers crossed he's not done anything stupid, but if he's guilty then he needs to be punished appropriately.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is claimed it is a "fat burning" drug. Seems to be the drugs du jour of many athletes.Sandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.0 -
The new generation of fans, that is those of us who were spermatozoa at the that time, don't deserve that though!nigel4england said:
Would serve their fans right though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.0 -
Nor did we back then.kle4 said:
The new generation of fans, that is those of us who were spermatozoa at the that time, don't deserve that though!nigel4england said:
Would serve their fans right though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.0 -
If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.0
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That will be the result whether we stay in or not. It has to be for the Eurozone to survive (at least the reducing member state power bit)AlastairMeeks said:If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.
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Perhaps "back of the queue" isn't such a bad place to be.
We vote Out, no deal with anyone, we abolish tariffs on imports.
Then it's up to us whether we choose to impose the protections on the NHS which the left calls for. That would be a safer route to that goal than relying on the EU and QMV.
The same goes for any other industry or activity we may (albeit foolishly) wish to protect.
If the French want to protect champagne from British exports, fine. There are other markets.
Meanwhile we enjoy world prices for our imports.
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Indeed, it gets more remarkable by the day.Alanbrooke said:
Apparently Cameron's inability to persuade his own electorate is a strengthMarkHopkins said:US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.0 -
Seems Sakho drug charge relates to the second leg at Man Utd. I can hear lawyers warming up0
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Without I hint of irony, I would trust Corbyn to resist the encroachment of the EU project on British rights more than I would Cameron's Tories. There's not a shadow of a doubt in my mind.another_richard said:
Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.Richard_Tyndall said:
If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop itAlanbrooke said:When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.
It's not even that they are reacting to things in a supine way; they are actively working to bring it about. Listen to what Fallon, Hammond, Osborne are saying. You could really weep.0 -
The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
Things will change. But not in the way we want. A future post-Remain PM would be wise to look at the speech given by Hirohito in 1945.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditableGIN1138 said:Sorry David there will be no "reform" in the EU now or in the future.
All that we'll happen after we vote to stay is that the next wave of "integration" will be thrust upon us to make it impossible to for us to ever go through an in/out referendum in future.
Ten years from now a PM will be urging the Brit's to "do their patriotic duty" and ditch the Pound, submerge our army in the the USE armed forces, etc...
"The situation has developed, not necessarily to the United Kingdom's advantage"0 -
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
Didn't Sakho score a goal in the game against Dortmund?Big_G_NorthWales said:Seems Sakho drug charge relates to the second leg at Man Utd. I can hear lawyers warming up
£50m lawsuit coming.
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The E.U will reduce member states power wether we stay or not. We have no power in the E.U as evidenced by Camerons "deal"AlastairMeeks said:If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.
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No.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
Harsh, but true.nigel4england said:
Would serve their fans right though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
They got all English clubs banned in the eighties.0 -
Betfair showing real movement - the 45% to 50% band has moved right out from about 4.5 to 5.5.
Leave is 3.25 on main market but arbitrage opportunity - all Leave bands on bands market only sum to 3.75.0 -
Which would be entirely their prerogative. I don't want to influence the French or the Germans. Their future should be left up to them, without Britain having collywobbles about it and/or getting a say.AlastairMeeks said:If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will reform. The reforms, however, might not be an improvement: it would probably reduce member state power and increase protectionism.
As a liberal, why do you want to meddle in the affairs of other nations?0 -
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?0 -
ROFL
first they came for the satirists, then they came for the journalists now they're coming for the symphony orchestras
Turkey demands Dresdner Sympnony Orchestra pulls production becuase it features the Armenian genocide.
Amazingly the germans have started making concessions by shutting down the turkish web page for the production.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/buehne-und-konzert/tuerkei-interveniert-gegen-konzertprojekt-der-dresdner-sinfoniker-14195273.html0 -
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.0 -
As long as West Ham finish higher in the league than Liverpool, I will be a happy LEAVERTheScreamingEagles said:
/twitter.com/Iandennisbbc/status/723856351923961856Big_G_NorthWales said:
Liverpool suspending Sakho must give credence to the story. It would be a sad end to Liverpool's revival if this see's them banned from EuropeSandpit said:
Oh crap. Hope it's a misunderstanding but no sympathy if it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news: Liverpool suspend Mamadou Sakho after he has failed a drug test. Questions being raised not only for Sakho but also Liverpool's win over Dortmund and their place in Europe. Who would have expected that
UEFA cup semi final is this Thursday, so if UEFA are going to try and do something stupid regarding the fixture they will have to act very quickly.
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Ah, but the wishful thinkers all say that we'd be allowed a vote on that.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly
Remain means further in, not the status quo. And as Justine Greening said on 'Any Questions' last night, there won't be another referendum in the next decade.0 -
Since their official position is 'Remain' that would be highly unlikely.another_richard said:
Even assuming a British government would want to stop it.Richard_Tyndall said:
If Remain win they will not just go back to the trend but will dramatically accelerate it. They should have be doing so years ago but could not for fear of driving the British out. With that fear gone they would be mad not to take rapid action to increase political integration as fast as possible as a means of reinforcing economic union. It is entirely understandable and inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that the British Government will be able to do to stop itAlanbrooke said:When Remain win, they will simply breathe a sigh of relief and go back to trend, taking of course the precautions to make any future exit impossible.
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An elegant but not very convincing article, and I am not sure David H really believes his own headline, either.
We should start by being clear about what is meant by 'reform'. A UK perspective would be that this means less trade protectionism, less intrusive regulation, a return of powers to member states, perhaps a reduction in the powers of the Commission. No rise in the budget.
For most Europeans, this agenda would be considered 'anti-reform', Their agenda might include - moves to a common fiscal policy, full banking union, and increase in the EU budget possibly financed by more EU-wide taxes, a single judicial system and increased integration of foreign and security policy.
It should be obvious that these two visions are entirely incompatible, and the likelihood of the former being followed is very low given the balance of opinion in the EU.
Another reason the EU will be keen to speed up agenda 2 i.e. tighter political integration is that the economic integration approach is getting close to exhaustion. The single market has not created a massive increase in integration, contrary to initial expectations.
This has been most striking in the case of the UK - because the EU is growing so slowly compared to the rest of the world, the structure of UK trade is now tilting sharply away from the EU and this pattern will continue despite the structural factors (EU protectionism) that bias UK trade toward the EU. The income effect is dominant.
Even in the case of 'REMAIN' in June, the EU is likely to become increasingly less important to the UK economically. This raises the danger of ultimate exit. As a result, the EU will I think quickly move to try to make future UK exit more costly/difficult by speeding up integration in other areas.
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As an Irishman I share your painTheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick0 -
Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?
Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.
Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
0 -
Weren't we assured that Dave's flagrant duplicity surrounding the renegotiations and his worthless 'deal' would swing it for Leave - an enraged public lusting to punish his treason and his lies?0
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That same argument applies to the renegotiation, the idea that we were the 5th biggest economy so it is implausible that we would be irrelevant, except we are, and we were, Dave came back with nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem leave have is that they have to trash any idea that things might change as it would be very unhelpful. However as leave say the UK is the 5th biggest economy and the idea that we will be irrelevant in this chaotic europe is just not creditable
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Still in Tory Racist mode, I see?TheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
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Could be worse - wasn't Ireland's saint British? So long as St George wasn't French.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.0 -
Well I'm off to the cinema, but before that I'm going to have a proper English lunch. A chicken tikka masala.Alanbrooke said:
As an Irishman I share your painTheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick0 -
No, St. Paddy's OK on the TSE front:Alanbrooke said:
As an Irishman I share your painTheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick
"The dates of Patrick's life cannot be fixed with certainty but, on a widespread interpretation, he was active as a missionary in Ireland during the second half of the fifth century."0 -
I doubt the EU would reform in any meaningful way until the last possible moment and probably too late. They are in abject denial over so many subjects, even in the event of brexit I can't see them reforming until after another member decides to leave.
As others have said, the most likely any "reform" will be either nothing of the sort or a blind for further power grabs from the center, making the situation worse not better.0 -
No you weren't. Fantasy land again.Stark_Dawning said:Weren't we assured that Dave's flagrant duplicity surrounding the renegotiations and his worthless 'deal' would swing it for Leave - an enraged public lusting to punish his treason and his lies?
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There is a demand for more money waiting in the wings for after the referendum, it was tabled earlier in the year to expand the EU budget by a significant amount, but inexplicably put in a drawer for a few months when the referendum came along.kle4 said:
Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.0 -
I think both sides are failing to make an actual case for their cause. In particular, I seriously can't think of a single actual advantage in staying that has been put forward by Remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a remainer I do not enjoy seeing leave in the position they find themselves but that is not remains fault. There is a strong argument for both remain and leave but leave are failing to make itMarkHopkins said:US President Barack Obama has told an audience of young British people to reject isolationism, pessimism and cynicism.
http://news.sky.com/story/1683935/obama-tells-uk-reject-pessimism-and-cynicism
Smearing anyone who wants freedom from the EU. Sorry Remainers, but this is insulting. You may like it, but it is still insulting to many British people.
Cameron has failed to make his arguments, so he's trying to use a well-respected US President to do the job for him. I find this level of interference extraordinary, so probably shows behind the scenes how desperate Cameron & Osborne are.
Remain, are however, pushing strongly against Leave, and Leave are struggling to combat their onslaught.
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To be fair, St Patrick did at least go to Ireland, even if originally by kidnapping.Alanbrooke said:
As an Irishman I share your painTheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick0 -
FPT
So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling.foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).
Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.
Unless born of a simple malevolence toward British food production, how do you justify this position?0 -
On other matters how many people have seen the Shakespeare google doodle ?
I correctly guessed 7 of the 8 plays featured.
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Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Still in Tory Racist mode, I see?TheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.0 -
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So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
It was cold then, we had to do something to boost tourist numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
To be fair, St Patrick did at least go to Ireland, even if originally by kidnapping.Alanbrooke said:
As an Irishman I share your painTheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Patrick0 -
"There is no such thing as public money. There is only taxpayer's money."another_richard said:
Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?
Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.
Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.
- M. H. Thatcher, Tory Conference 1983.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvz8tg4MVpA0 -
I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?0
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5/8 - Not bad imho, for a literary philistineanother_richard said:On other matters how many people have seen the Shakespeare google doodle ?
I correctly guessed 7 of the 8 plays featured. 0 -
Where's your evidence for that statement? The Government never put leaving the EU or the euro on the table, and there were leaks concerning the accuracy of the polling.foxinsoxuk said:
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?0 -
With a Tory Racist tinge!TheScreamingEagles said:
Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Still in Tory Racist mode, I see?TheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.0 -
No. I was talking purely about the Eurozone countries. It is entirely possible to be a member of the EU without being a member of the EurozoneRichard_Tyndall said:
So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
That is already the situation, with both Danish bacon and also Thai chicken for example.Luckyguy1983 said:FPT
So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling. Unless born of a simple malevolence for British food production, how do you justify this position?foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).
Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.
I would like to see evidence that chlorinated chicken is harmful, if there is evidence then trade barriers are reasonable.0 -
The 'back of the queue' bewailing of the EVERCLOSERUNION supporters is reminiscent of the 'in the slow lane' bewailing after Britain left the ERM and the 'left on the platform' bewailing after Britain didn't join the Euro.geoffw said:Perhaps "back of the queue" isn't such a bad place to be.
We vote Out, no deal with anyone, we abolish tariffs on imports.
Then it's up to us whether we choose to impose the protections on the NHS which the left calls for. That would be a safer route to that goal than relying on the EU and QMV.
The same goes for any other industry or activity we may (albeit foolishly) wish to protect.
If the French want to protect champagne from British exports, fine. There are other markets.
Meanwhile we enjoy world prices for our imports.
Plus ca change etc
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Vladimir Putin?Stark_Dawning said:I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?
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Two calendar months to go to save the UK's independence and freedom!0
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I'm floored by that verdict; I really am.Stark_Dawning said:I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?
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At which point you will rapidly find that supposed non-discrimination agreement isn't worth the paper it is printed on.TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
Err, to make no change to our independence and freedom....Sunil_Prasannan said:Two calendar months to go to save the UK's independence and freedom!
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Luckily Cameron is good at resisting those demands. Remember the £1.7 billion that Osborne paid over last year. Ah. I see.Indigo said:
There is a demand for more money waiting in the wings for after the referendum, it was tabled earlier in the year to expand the EU budget by a significant amount, but inexplicably put in a drawer for a few months when the referendum came along.kle4 said:
Again, you'd hope. It hasn’t worked so far, no reason it should. Maybe they could just cut their bloody spending, yet apparently that reform is impossible.0 -
£13bn split between 31m workers equates to a £420 tax bill (round figures) for every worker.another_richard said:
Not surprising when you consider the endless billions Greece has had from the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?
Correction not FROM, VIA the EU.
Its been coming FROM my taxes, your taxes and the taxes of every other PBer.0 -
I'm sure the British government will show their gratitude by sending British soldiers to the 'front of the queue' in America's next war.Stark_Dawning said:I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?
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Patriotism necessitates racism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
With a Tory Racist tinge!TheScreamingEagles said:
Apparently I'm in Traitorous Pro EU mode for the next few months.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Still in Tory Racist mode, I see?TheScreamingEagles said:
He was a bloody foreigner who never stepped foot in England.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Bloody foreigners coming over here and taking over our patron saint.
0 -
So far Mr Putin has left the decision to the british public.foxinsoxuk said:
Vladimir Putin?Stark_Dawning said:I get the feeling that Obama's intervention is a big nail in Leave's coffin. Who have they got to counter that sort of heavy artillery? John Howard?
Is there something wrong with that ?0 -
Not really. You're at the periphery not the core.TheScreamingEagles said:
No. I was talking purely about the Eurozone countries. It is entirely possible to be a member of the EU without being a member of the EurozoneRichard_Tyndall said:
So you mean we will have to leave. Those are the only two options based on your first statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we have to join the Euro?TheScreamingEagles said:The EU will struggle whilst some of its members have a currency union sans a political union.
They need to resolve quickly0 -
Farmers aren't bothered as long as they get the UK taxpayers cash rinsed via Brussels, aka subsidies.Luckyguy1983 said:FPT
So to clarify, you are happy that British farmers are forced to observe minimum standards, but you are also happy that inferior food products that fall *well* below that standard can be imported and compete without labelling.foxinsoxuk said:
I am happy that there is some regulation of animal husbandry to a minimal standard. I would be happier if those standards were far higher, but am quite able to apply those standards in my own life. I do this mostly by eating less meat, and am vegetarian most days (very affordable in the UK).
Obesity is very much a class issue, it would serve poor people as much as anyone else to eat less food and be more selective in what they eat.
Unless born of a simple malevolence toward British food production, how do you justify this position?0 -
Country that would be a basketcase outside the EU wants to stay in the EU shock. Sooner or later the Germans will get tired of paying for their basketcasery.foxinsoxuk said:
Even at the depths of the Greek crisis, Greeks favoured both staying in the EU and staying in the Euro, they just did not want austerity. When forced to choose they opted for the EU.Plato_Says said:The mess that was Greece over the Euro showed me that the determination of the wagon circlers is quite extraordinary.
Nothing was going to deflect them from powering ahead, Merkel over migrants is another. The EU is an appalling mess. If you wouldn't vote to join now, why vote Remain?0 -
ANECDOTE ALERT
I think the Obama thing could play very badly for Remain. At my work this morning, people (even ones who said they liked Obama generally) were incensed at the idea of "America again coming over and treating us like their poodle, telling us what to do".0
