politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Obama’s “back of the queue” response on a US trade deal is

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Is there any reason I am getting e mails from pb every few minutes?

Click the cog in the top right. Edit profile. Click notification settings on the menu on the left hand side, and tweak to your desired settings.

Thanks for that - seems to have fixed it - very grateful

I see Robert had managed to do what I've always feared doing.

John_N4 said:

OllyT said:

Leavers are lashing out in all directions precisely because Obama's comments were so effective in undermine them. That is the truth of the matter. That is why Leavers are frothing at the mouth on twitter.

I'm a Remainer, but on the matter of Obama's threat I'm frothing as much as any Leaver.

Do you not recognise the possibility that many Leavers simply do not like the leader of a foreign country coming to Britain, talking as if Britain is some kind of supplicant dependent on his own country's largesse, and threatening that our country will suffer if our people decide to change the country's relationship, not with his own country, but with some of our European fellows on this side of the wide Atlantic Ocean?

Seriously, regardless of whether you disagree with the position, do you not think it is a reasonable position for a person to take?

Yes but I didn't expect him to be so forceful. The question now is has he delivered a fatal blow to leave and also Boris. What on earth was Boris thinking. I want him in the cabinet post 23rd June but he lost all hope of PM today in my opinion

alex. said:

kle4 said:

There is a feeling most remainer MPs are merely gutless leavers kowtowing to the leadership. That seems unduly optimistic to me. More likely they played up their skepticism before. The membership seems more clearly skewed to leave, so a leaver direction and leader might make things easier, but the idea it would end the duvision seems as laughable to me as the idea this going to be a civil Tory contest.

Who is this wonderful "Leaver" that the Tory MPs are lining up to be their next leader, and not just next leader - the next leader is by default the next PM? The fact that it appears that Gove is the current frontrunner shows the problem - voters will run a mile from him.

Given a choice between Gove and Corbyn, voters will unhesitatingly - rightly - plump for Gove.

Given a choice between Gove and somebody who knows how to fill out a tax form and does not have to spend all his/her time explaining their links to far right groups and the shadier members of Islington Labour Party, voters will unhesitatingly - rightly - plump for the latter.

This is where the truly cretinous delusion of Labour that they could vote for somebody who made them feel good about themselves because they were going to get another whipping in 2020 really comes home to roost. If Yvette Cooper were leading the Labour Party right now, any bet on an election in 2017 followed by a Labour government would be free money.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap.

One of the great leftwing leaders of our time ;-)

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723601725391777796

alex. said:

kle4 said:

OllyT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

Why are some Tories assuming that the next leader will need to be a leaver for the sake of unity? Who's to say that would create unity? Why would the remainers fall in behind - particularly if it's someone with a history of rebellion.

Because the infuriated and embittered activists, backbenchers and associations will demand it, or threaten huge rebellion, splitting the party in two.

If the Tory party is a machine-for-winning, as JackW says (I have my doubts) then it will see the sense of acceding to this pressure. The REMAINIANS should be thankful they won the most important vote of all, pocket their triumph, refrain from gloating, and let the LEAVERS have the silver medal.

It's the only way to heal the party. To do otherwise would be foolish and possibly suicidal. These REMAINIANS like Matthew Parris threatening a "reckoning" and a "purge" after a REMAIN win are just nuts.

It's reasonable to believe there will be a purge, and a reckoning, but it's unlikely to be of Leavers. This may be the Tory party's chance to rid itself of the pro-euro tick that has been feasting itself on the party for decades.

The Tory party does not have and has never had a majority of MPs in favour of leaving the EU. Not now, not in Thatcher's day. Delusional

There is a feeling most remainer MPs are merely gutless leavers kowtowing to the leadership. That seems unduly optimistic to me. More likely they played up their skepticism before. The membership seems more clearly skewed to leave, so a leaver direction and leader might make things easier, but the idea it would end the duvision seems as laughable to me as the idea this going to be a civil Tory contest.

Who is this wonderful "Leaver" that the Tory MPs are lining up to be their next leader, and not just next leader - the next leader is by default the next PM?

I didn't say there was one. But if Leave win they'll have to find one, quick, as Cameron won't be around long after that. The fact many will want him gone even if he wins convincingly shows they won't countenance him staying if he loses, even were he minded to try.

alex. said:

GIN1138 said:

This looks like the biggest US intervention in internal British politics since Suez... Remind me what happened to the Prime Minister then?

#GetCameronOut

Er, wasn't that an intervention against the wishes of the British PM?

Different circumstances of course but doesn't mean the outcome (I.E. the evisceration of an utterly inept Prime Minister) can't be the same.

Surely the Tory Party can't continue to allow Cameron to stay in office much longer?

Tykejohnno said:

One of the great leftwing leaders of our time ;-)

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723601725391777796

Still waiting for Chilcot...

Tick.Tock. Tick.Tock.

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

One of the great leftwing leaders of our time ;-)

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723601725391777796

Still waiting for Chilcot...

Tick.Tock. Tick.Tock.

Turns out it was everyone's and no-one's fault. Bit of an anti-climax really.

But in any case I'll wait for the audiobook.

John_N4 said:

OllyT said:

Leavers are lashing out in all directions precisely because Obama's comments were so effective in undermine them. That is the truth of the matter. That is why Leavers are frothing at the mouth on twitter.

I'm a Remainer, but on the matter of Obama's threat I'm frothing as much as any Leaver.

Do you not recognise the possibility that many Leavers simply do not like the leader of a foreign country coming to Britain, talking as if Britain is some kind of supplicant dependent on his own country's largesse, and threatening that our country will suffer if our people decide to change the country's relationship, not with his own country, but with some of our European fellows on this side of the wide Atlantic Ocean?

Seriously, regardless of whether you disagree with the position, do you not think it is a reasonable position for a person to take?

I saw the speech on the news and I don't interpret it in that way at all. I am absolutely convinced that the Leaver reaction to Obama is because of what he said not because he expressed an opinion per se. In isolation you might have a case but it's been the default setting of Leave for weeks now to attack and abuse anyone who makes a criticism of Brexit.

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

Floater said:

Back of queue eh Obama?

That is how you treat a key ally?

Nothing but utter contempt for the man.

He really can CENSORED

I know several people who will be infuriated by that.

Judging by the hyperventilating Leavers on here I would say Obama's comments were bang on target.

I think you Remainers need to be a bit nicer about Leavers.

They are passionate about this country, and restoring its self-govenance

SeanT said:

A note of caution.

There were several moments in indyref when a huge intervention was made, from non Scots, about the dire consequences of a YES vote. e.g. Gideon on the currency, Carney on the BoE, some EU leaders on EU membership, and so forth. After each one lots of commentators thought and said Well that's it, NO have it in the bag.

I remember saying that myself a couple of times.

But often the reaction was counter-intuitive, and the polls swang to YES.

Voters don't like being bullied, and sometimes react the opposite way intended. Independence referendums are strange things.

I don't expect huge interventions to convert many Leavers to Remainers (apart from the artificial conversions trailed on here) but what the Government is trying to do is drive up turnout amongst soft Remainers, so Remain wins hands down on a high turnout.

They might succeed. But there's a catch 22 here: if it looks open & shut, turnout won't be as high depressing Remain, and some nervous Leavers will firmly vote Leave if they think they'll definitely lose anyhow.

I'll be a little nicer to Leavers once they stop telling me I'm a traitor to my country because I prefer to stay in the EU.

watford30 said:

I'd be surprised if Cameron even survived that long after a Remain win. The damage he's done to the party is astonishing, even before this afternoon's Sub/Dom session with Obama.

Like Gin, I wonder if he'll even last as long the Referendum.

I can understand the anger of those on the leave side but more than half David Cameron's MP's are for remain and he is fighting to win. The surprising thing to me is that leave have simply no easy to understand proposal to put to the voter despite the time they have had to agree on one. I do believe that it is very wrong for those in the remain camp to disrespect leave's views and vice versa but that's politics

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723608322205691904

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

alex. said:

kle4 said:

There is a feeling most remainer MPs are merely gutless leavers kowtowing to the leadership. That seems unduly optimistic to me. More likely they played up their skepticism before. The membership seems more clearly skewed to leave, so a leaver direction and leader might make things easier, but the idea it would end the duvision seems as laughable to me as the idea this going to be a civil Tory contest.

Who is this wonderful "Leaver" that the Tory MPs are lining up to be their next leader, and not just next leader - the next leader is by default the next PM? The fact that it appears that Gove is the current frontrunner shows the problem - voters will run a mile from him.

Given a choice between Gove and Corbyn, voters will unhesitatingly - rightly - plump for Gove.

Would they though? You lay out reasons why, although he is presently disliked, Gove would be the rational choice in your opinion, and I am no fan of Corbyn at all...but I am far less confident people would be so unhesitating as you suggest in that scenario or similar.

Yes.

Gove has no more strident critic than me. But he has not made common cause with fascist governments. Or shared platforms with Holocaust deniers. Or endorsed the actions of murderers. Or failed to investigate serious and well-supported allegations of child molestation. Or been accused of tax evasion. Indeed (*grits teeth*) to his credit Gove has been proactive in acting against alliances with some very dubious regimes and in rooting out child sex offenders in education, although I know nothing about his position on tax avoidance.

There is no way Corbyn could win an election without a Mugabe style fraud operation. If Labour don't ditch him, the only way the Conservatives can lose the next election is if they elect Osborne leader. And even then it's only a 50/50 shot.

Some people argue BP is not really a British company any more but nevertheless Obama revealed his true colours to me over his vindictive attitude to them following the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. The notion he has British interests at heart is laughable.

Should Remain win, regrettably, it will at least be very interesting to see if the righteous anger of an at least significant minority of current Tories is manifested, or if the 'nowhere to go' gang will be proved correct. Will the LDs and Labour see an uptick, even though they are even more for Remain, on the basis it makes no difference and at least punishes the Tories? Will UKIP surge anew? Will they just stay at home and cause even Corbynite Labour to be in with a chance? Will it prove just talk?

It's not consolation, but it will be entertaining.

stodge said:

Evening All.

Not sure why anyone is in the least surprised at Obama. Every President from Nixon would have said the same and for Washington dealing with "Europe" is much easier than dealing with France, Germany, the U.K, Italy and the rest.

Once De Gaulle was out of the way, our fate was sealed and while we have some freedom of action, it is the freedom of the caged animal to walk freely within the confines of the cage. Washington has always wanted the UK in both NATO and the EU. On that basis we "enjoy" the support of the United States.

All today has done has brought home the reality of Britain's true place in the world since Suez and arguably before that.

Quite so. This country is still living in the shadow of Suez, and the fall of Singapore.

One day it will change. I hope. But we have to vote for it.

MP_SE said:

watford30 said:

I'd be surprised if Cameron even survived that long after a Remain win. The damage he's done to the party is astonishing, even before this afternoon's Sub/Dom session with Obama.

Like Gin, I wonder if he'll even last as long the Referendum.

The Tories need a strong Eurosceptic leader. Michael Fallon's comments today were "interesting":

"Britain will never go to war without its European allies again, Defence Secretary claims - but denies backing an EU army"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552388/Britain-never-war-without-European-allies-Defence-Secretary-claims-denies-backing-EU-army.html

I can't quite see any country in Europe joining us to defend the Falkland Islands...

I can see the UK becoming increasingly involved with Frontex and Europol using the threat of terrorism as the perfect excuse. Then the threat of Russia can be used as an excuse to join the energy union. Can the same people who dragged us into the European Arrest Warrant be trusted?

Fallon is yet another sell out hoping to use a Remain vote to accelerate this Government's europhile pro-integration agenda.

It is in the national interest for the Remain margin of victory to be as small as possible.

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just as it was obvious to all but the most deluded that Cameron was always going to advocate staying in the EU, so it is obvious that giving the UK beneficial trade deals post-Brexit is not going to be a priority for the US or any other major trading nation. This is realpolitik.

Of course it will be in the US's interests. It just isn't in their interest to admit it right now. That is realpolitik.

Not really - does the US need more access to the UK market than it has now enough to give the UK more access to the US market than it has now? No, it has bigger fish to fry. And the same applies to all other major trading nations. They'll do a deal if we give them what they want whilst not giving us what we want, but otherwise they won't.

We are the fifth largest fish in the world. Since the US isn't seeking to make a deal with itself, that makes us the fourth largest fish in the world for them to catch.

We are also very aligned culturally and economically. A deal will be valuable and easy to make.

It just doesn't make sense to say so.

What does the USA sell to the UK which they could not sell otherwise ?

That's not the question. The question is "is it in the interests of the USA to make a deal with their fourth largest trading partner, yes or no?"

We don't need a 'trade deal' with the US, this is a chimera. We trade very successfully with them now, on the export side. With Brexit we can remove barriers to US imports the EU currently imposes - that will reduce import costs and benefit UK households. This obsession with 'market access' misunderstands how international trade actually works and most crucially how it generates welfare gains and losses for countries.

The reaction of the Brexiteers today has been joyous. Like the Nats, they thought they had the referendum won, without actually working out the answers to any of the hard questions, and expecting their opponents just to lie down.

@alexmassie: Statements of the bleedin' obvious are only "threats" if you dislike what they say. Obama today; Osborne during indyref etc etc.

Trump's just predicted wins for himself in Delaware and New York.

Might be a bit optimistic !

Pulpstar said:

Trump's just predicted wins for himself in Delaware and New York.

Might be a bit optimistic !

Presumably in November?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump's just predicted wins for himself in Delaware and New York.

Might be a bit optimistic !

Presumably in November?

Yep 1.02 shoo in for Delaware, should probably be 1.01.

runnymede said:

Philip_Thompson said:

surbiton said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just as it was obvious to all but the most deluded that Cameron was always going to advocate staying in the EU, so it is obvious that giving the UK beneficial trade deals post-Brexit is not going to be a priority for the US or any other major trading nation. This is realpolitik.

Of course it will be in the US's interests. It just isn't in their interest to admit it right now. That is realpolitik.

Not really - does the US need more access to the UK market than it has now enough to give the UK more access to the US market than it has now? No, it has bigger fish to fry. And the same applies to all other major trading nations. They'll do a deal if we give them what they want whilst not giving us what we want, but otherwise they won't.

We are the fifth largest fish in the world. Since the US isn't seeking to make a deal with itself, that makes us the fourth largest fish in the world for them to catch.

We are also very aligned culturally and economically. A deal will be valuable and easy to make.

It just doesn't make sense to say so.

What does the USA sell to the UK which they could not sell otherwise ?

That's not the question. The question is "is it in the interests of the USA to make a deal with their fourth largest trading partner, yes or no?"

We don't need a 'trade deal' with the US, this is a chimera. We trade very successfully with them now, on the export side. With Brexit we can remove barriers to US imports the EU currently imposes - that will reduce import costs and benefit UK households. This obsession with 'market access' misunderstands how international trade actually works and most crucially how it generates welfare gains and losses for countries.

Well said.
Outers should just ignore taunts "what deal will you have post Brexit?". No deal, just open up to tariff-free imports. If others countries want protection for their special interests let them have it. Only their consumers bear the costs.

Scott_P said:

The reaction of the Brexiteers today has been joyous. Like the Nats, they thought they had the referendum won, without actually working out the answers to any of the hard questions, and expecting their opponents just to lie down.

@alexmassie: Statements of the bleedin' obvious are only "threats" if you dislike what they say. Obama today; Osborne during indyref etc etc.

It's been joyous watching you post your 5001 post for remain when you pretended to be neutral - lol

Tykejohnno said:

Sandpit said:

watford30 said:

I object to being lectured by a foreign power, whilst the British PM stands idly by grinning like a w*nking chimp. Don't you?

And I have no problem with Remain fighting hard to win. But foolishly, I expected Cameron to do so with a bit more dignity, HMG giving a fair and balanced view of the benefits and downsides of membership.

Clearly I was mistaken. Like many party members, I won't fall for the same again. And I suspect that I won't be alone in quitting after the next leadership elections.

Well said. I just caught up on what Obama said and was completely shocked by the forcefulness of it.

I'd be posting my membership card back tonight if it wouldn't cost me my vote in the inevitable leadership election.

Was today the day the PM lost his party? The language used by him in the past few days has been completely unnecessary, he must know that it's going to infuriate the majority of his party members and activists - is it possible that Graham Brady gets enough letters for a vote of confidence in Cameron BEFORE the referendum?

Do we know the numbers for the conservative membership ? When was the lowest ever recorded membership levels for the Tories,is it now ?

Probably going down by a few over the next couple of months I'd think!!

Somewhere around 100k-120k at the last election but accurate figures hard to come by, as collated locally in the constituencies rather than at CCHQ.

Alistair said:

Nats, starting from a 37% point gap, thought they had the referendum won?

You really claiming Eck thought he was going to lose?

His comments today were tragic.

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump's just predicted wins for himself in Delaware and New York.

Might be a bit optimistic !

Presumably in November?

Yep 1.02 shoo in for Delaware, should probably be 1.01.

At least we could say Trump had won in Kent, Sussex and New[c]astle.

The indepenent front page headline will NOT go down well with the British public,we might be a shit hole according the remain camp but I know one thing,the british people don't like threats.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/723621665884778496

Bromptonaut said:

Oh this gets funnier and funnier. The anger. The pompousness. The futility.

Especially since SeanT is likely to come out for Remain at least once before the actual vote...

Tykejohnno said:

Sandpit said:

Tykejohnno said:

Sandpit said:

watford30 said:

I object to being lectured by a foreign power, whilst the British PM stands idly by grinning like a w*nking chimp. Don't you?

And I have no problem with Remain fighting hard to win. But foolishly, I expected Cameron to do so with a bit more dignity, HMG giving a fair and balanced view of the benefits and downsides of membership.

Clearly I was mistaken. Like many party members, I won't fall for the same again. And I suspect that I won't be alone in quitting after the next leadership elections.

Well said. I just caught up on what Obama said and was completely shocked by the forcefulness of it.

I'd be posting my membership card back tonight if it wouldn't cost me my vote in the inevitable leadership election.

Was today the day the PM lost his party? The language used by him in the past few days has been completely unnecessary, he must know that it's going to infuriate the majority of his party members and activists - is it possible that Graham Brady gets enough letters for a vote of confidence in Cameron BEFORE the referendum?

Do we know the numbers for the conservative membership ? When was the lowest ever recorded membership levels for the Tories,is it now ?

Probably going down by a few over the next couple of months I'd think!!

Somewhere around 100k-120k at the last election but accurate figures hard to come by, as collated locally in the constituencies rather than at CCHQ.

That low - wow

It would be interesting if any party insiders here could comment on what's happened to numbers in the past year - I'd guess up a bit since the election, but those who joined last May will be getting requests for £25 more any day now.

From a betting point of view, Shadsy's 2/1 on the PM not lasting this year must have some value tonight. Even some Remain PMs will be pissed off at the way he's dealt with the referendum.

Scott_P said:

Bromptonaut said:

Oh this gets funnier and funnier. The anger. The pompousness. The futility.

Especially since SeanT is likely to come out for Remain at least once before the actual vote...

You have some nerve -

You came out for remain while you was telling us you were neutral - 5001 remain post later - lol

SeanT said:

We will get our payback.

As deluded as the Zoomers.

https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/723181837820919810

The Special Relationship gets us a place at the back of the queue.

Special, my @rse.

@JamieRoss7: It must be awful to strongly believe in Brexit and be watching your campaigns make an absolute horse's arse of it.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Simple rule - if Tim Montgomerie is on your side& supporting what you are doing, you are probably not winning - the Eddie Izzard of the right.

Nonsense, how can you doubt Montie, who posted this tweet during last year's election campaign?

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/678877529562853376

SeanT said:

But they did get their payback, in spades. The Nats now own Scotland. And they destroyed Scottish Labour, and crippled UK Labour. And have significant leverage in Westminster.

But instead of the only thing they ever craved, the single thing they have got is enough rope to hang themselves, which they seem intent on doing.

Payback's a bitch...

Front pages not looking good for the PM, with even the more liberal papers leading with Obama's "Back of the queue" comment - which as others have said is definitely a British rather than an American expression. The latter wait in lines not queues.

Just how stupid do the Brexiteer's think the public are?

@DPJHodges: Dominic Raab says Barack Obama's comments "don't reflect US trade policy". Dominic Raab or Barack Obama on US trade policy. Your choice.

So much for the special relationship... Quite sickening to see the likes of Osborne cheer on Obama snubbing the UK.

@STE_BBL: Obama used the word queue before in his life (amazingly enough). So can we put that conspiracy to bed please. https://t.co/2p3N4cD7yw

Unlikely, but worth asking

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

The Special Relationship gets us a place at the back of the queue.

Special, my @rse.

Today a US President said exactly what a UK PM wanted him to say.

1) I can't see an American President doing that for other countries

2) Shows Cameron's and The UK influence on America and The Special Relationship

Or today a weak british PM who couldn't convince his own electorate begged a US Prez to threaten them because he couldn't carry his argument

you decide

Scott_P said:

@STE_BBL: Obama used the word queue before in his life (amazingly enough). So can we put that conspiracy to bed please. https://t.co/2p3N4cD7yw

Unlikely, but worth asking

but did he use the expression jizzbaiting in his speech ?

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

Here's Boy George lapping up Obama coming here to threaten and bully the people that gave him and Cameron their jobs;

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/723576747044810753

They are really unwise to keep parroting this "back of the queue" shit. No doubt they focus-grouped the phrase before asking Obama to use it, but I reckon it is too strong. We shall see.

Newsnight focus grouped it and it was, to use a Obama phrase, a slam dunk. Boris came across as not very convinced in his denial and looking, frankly, rather unhappy and shifty. Leave must be utterly gutted tonight.

Tykejohnno said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Simple rule - if Tim Montgomerie is on your side& supporting what you are doing, you are probably not winning - the Eddie Izzard of the right.

but Eddie izzard's on your side,be very afraid ;-)

true... but montie.... great eg grom tse.

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

Here's Boy George lapping up Obama coming here to threaten and bully the people that gave him and Cameron their jobs;

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/723576747044810753

They are really unwise to keep parroting this "back of the queue" shit. No doubt they focus-grouped the phrase before asking Obama to use it, but I reckon it is too strong. We shall see.

Newsnight focus grouped it and it was, to use a Obama phrase, a slam dunk. Boris came across as not very convinced in his denial and looking, frankly, rather unhappy and shifty. Leave must be utterly gutted tonight.

Mr rottenborough,are you in the remain camp ?

GIN1138 said:

Here's Boy George lapping up Obama coming here to threaten and bully the people that gave him and Cameron their jobs;

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/723576747044810753

Wanker.