Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
I would have predicted with that many Lab voters the Cons would have won on preferences but apparently not. Interesting to see how the votes broke.
I have to go to Falkirk Sheriff Court on occasion, or at least I did before most appearances were on screen. It is, to put it kindly, a dump, deeply depressed like so much of central Scotland with a High Street of empty shops and full of drug addicts. I find the Tory performance there astonishing and Labour's even more so in a less good way.
The retiring Labour Councillor was the former Provost so I presume he had a personal vote.
I am enjoying the FBPE remainer contortions. When the supply chain and HGV problems are in the UK it is BrExIt when it is the rest of the world it is "special issues" or "not the same"
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
No, it is both.
There can be no doubt Brexit has played a part but far too many in the media and on here try to hang everything on Brexit when that is manifestly untrue
There is denial on both sides. But I'm not sure that thinking Brexit was a mistake is denial.
Brexit definitely isn't the problem but we can fix it by abandoning part of Brexit, part 793 in an ongoing series....
The government wants to change how frequently overseas HGV operators can deliver in the UK to help solve the current supply chain problems https://trib.al/LrU5tWn
A Boeing pilot involved in testing the 737 Max jetliner was indicted on Thursday by a federal grand jury on charges of deceiving safety regulators who were evaluating the plane, which was later involved in two deadly crashes.
Prosecutors said that because of Forkner’s “alleged deception”, the system was not mentioned in key FAA documents, pilot manuals or pilot-training material supplied to airlines.
Chad Meacham, acting US attorney for the northern district of Texas, said Forkner had tried to save Boeing money by withholding “critical information” from regulators. “His callous choice to mislead the FAA hampered the agency’s ability to protect the flying public and left pilots in the lurch, lacking information about certain 737 Max flight controls,” Meacham said in a statement.
Chicago-based Boeing agreed to a $2.5bn settlement to end a justice department criminal investigation into the company’s actions. Boeing said in the settlement last year that employees had misled regulators about the safety of the Max. The settlement included a fine, money for airlines that bought the plane and compensation for families of the passengers who died in the crashes.
Hmmm, not impressed by this. $2.5bn is nothing for Boeing. The top brass should be on trial too.
Think that's bad? The prosecutor who dealt with this case has changed jobs.
The whole thing is utterly corrupt. Boeing got away with a fine that is little more than a slap on the wrist; senior corporate figures are not being prosecuted, and instead someone low-down the chain is being the fall guy.
That’s utterly appalling.
To be cynical, any Boeing fine big enough to hurt would need to be compensated by a hidden subsidy NASA or Pentagon research contract, as per usual practice.
Except Boeing is repeatedly failing on such projects. The Boeing Starliner problems are at least partially understandable: space is hard (*). Boeing's problem is that the rot has migrated down into their bread-and-butter. Not just with the 737 Max; their 777X was due to be delivered in 2020; it is now expected in 2024, for reasons including " The FAA cited a serious test flight incident involving an "uncommanded pitch event" and a lack of "design maturity"."
Yep, they've got a design that can have uncommanded pitch events. After the 737 Max debacle.
Then there are their military contracts. Remember the hot mess from 13/14 years ago when the USAF chose an Airbus/NG refuelling tanker instead of a Boeing one? The deal was redone, on terms highly favourable to the Boeing bid, and Boeing won. Their winning bid, the KC-46, is a steaming pile of poo. At least four years late, with leaks, debris being found in fuel tanks, and lots of other issues. Meanwhile the base Airbus design is fairly happily in service with multiple countries.
Planes are Boeing's bread-and-butter. And they've forgotten how to make them.
(*) Though I'd argue not *that* hard.
IIRC it’s not that they have forgotten how to make them but they came up with a different way - trust the computer. Someone posted a long article on here a year or so ago which went through it in detail
Boeing did the classic C-suite thing of declaring that nearly everything "isn't our core business"
They decided that they would design planes, buy chunks of planes from 3rd party interrogators who would in turn contract out work etc etc. Yes, this is how much of aerospace works - but they took it to new heights. Or depths depending on your point of view.
This results in a couple of things - the real engineers tend to leave your company, to work for the 3rd parties you are contracting with. You end up losing a lot of real knowledge.
C-suite thought that they were outsourcing risk - that they can specific a chunk of plane, and if it doesn't do what it says on the tin, they can sue the contractors. But if the design is shit.. and the big lesson from 2008 is that you can't put risk in a box and sell it to people. It always finds it's way home.
So, you've lost your design skills, control of risk and then you have to integrate chunks of plane and do the final testing. Ah, but we can save money there......
Anyone with an interest in engineering management should read the internal Boeing document that was made public in a shareholder lawsuit against Boeing after the Dreamliner debacle “Outsourced Profits - The Cornerstone of Successful Subcontracting” by J.L. Hart-Smith.
It’s a clear-eyed view of when outsourcing does & doesn’t make sense, and how an engineering company that decides to fully out-source it’s core-competency and reduce itself to an assembler of outsourced components and a brand is asking for trouble.
Regarding Brexit, I think it is possible that it will end up getting cancelled. A few people will be fuming; but most will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life.
Not a chance in hell.
It can't be cancelled, it's happened. And it won't be reversed either.
Neither politicians nor the public are going to want to go through that again, and even if we did have a collective reversal the French would say non.
England will never again be a part of the EU.
It can. All it takes is for a government consumed by woke thinking to declare the whole thing as racist and proscribe any opposition to rejoining the EU on the same grounds. And then they can just sign us back up again on whatever terms the EU demand. You think that this is mad but that is how a lot of woke remainers think.
Or perhaps more accurately, how you think 'a lot of woke remainers' think. You have at least given us some insight into how you think...
I had my company leaving drinks last night. I was sitting in the corner with an ex-colleague (alumni of the firm) who's a very dark skinned female Egyptian in her mid-40s who - totally unprompted - spent 3 minutes ranting to me about how Woke the firm had become and how it was totally OTT. We were both slightly worse for wear but she was fed up being categorised and its divisiveness.
An ever bigger smile crept across my face as I listened and I eventually had to politely interrupt her to say I agreed with her 100%. 110%. 500%.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The strange thing about pitting ‘workers’ against ‘non workers’ is it makes the latter sound as though they’ve never done a days work in their lives and are just rich, entitled, Tories, born with a silver spoon in their mouth. When in fact they are generally people who have done more work, and probably harder work, in their life than ten 20 somethings
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
No, it is both.
The starting point is surely that bigger markets can absorb shocks better than smaller ones; there's more internal degrees of freedom to match up supply and demand. The UK's invisible hand is acting in a smaller box now, so it can't do as much.
That may be worthwhile, but it's a real cost.
Talking of which ...
The Transport secretary was responding to complaints that new relaxation of rules on foreign lorry drivers makes it easier for EU drivers to come to UK without any reciprocal easing of rules to allow British drivers to go to EU.
BREAKING: NHS Test and Trace have suspended operations at the Immensa Health Clinic’s Lab in Wolverhampton following negative PCR tests after positive LFTs
I would have predicted with that many Lab voters the Cons would have won on preferences but apparently not. Interesting to see how the votes broke.
I have to go to Falkirk Sheriff Court on occasion, or at least I did before most appearances were on screen. It is, to put it kindly, a dump, deeply depressed like so much of central Scotland with a High Street of empty shops and full of drug addicts. I find the Tory performance there astonishing and Labour's even more so in a less good way.
The retiring Labour Councillor was the former Provost so I presume he had a personal vote.
Possibly, but that too is indicative of the problem. What is left of SLAB is a generation that were very much used to ruling the roost in Scotland and appointing their pals to sundry quangos and public bodies. Below that, in the current generation, there seems to be nothing, a waste land. As people like that Provost retire from the scene what is replacing them?
The Conservatives in Scotland should become a distinct party which takes the Tory whip at Westminster, called the Unionists. The door is there, its wide open and it has been for a while.
“ Norway rampage suspect is an unstable jobless loner with drug convictions ( guess which drug) . Yet authorities seek to categorise the Kongsberg crime as terrorism. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1… via @MailOnline”
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
The thing with IR35 is that I actually don't think most drivers should have ever been outside IR35 - someone this week tried to use the Ready Mixed Concrete case as a justification for being outside (it's a core case for determining employment / self employment) but missed the fundamental fact that the driver who was outside provided all his own equipment including the tanker.
The logistics industry was one of the worst for using any trick possible to keep costs low while retaining some profit.
The UK’s baby boom of the early 2000s is about to flood universities and colleges with tens of thousands more school leavers every year, according to the former universities minister David Willetts.
Willetts warns, in a report published on Friday, that the comprehensive spending review needs to fund an expansion in further and higher education to absorb the increase, or risk too many young people being trapped in low-paid work.
Allocate 5% of them to HGV training and 5% to GP training. But this time pay for it, so it actually happens, rather than announce yet another 5 year recruitment target and simply forget about it, then wonder why we are worse off in 5 years time. What else?
I'm so old I remember when everyone was saying who in their right mind would go into trucking since AI would be driving lorries within a few years.
Another look at something vaguely politics related in Etymology Etcetera - sycophancy, sycamores and their relation to figs..
Both syc- words share as their root the ancient Greek σῦκον (sûkon) meaning "fig".
The tree that we call a sycamore is not the same tree as the original, biblical reference. Our tree was introduced to Britain in the 15C and is now naturalised here; it's entirely unrelated to the biblical tree, and is in fact part of the lychee family. I presume it being once named the sycamore was the result of some ancient erroneous taxonomy. The "original" sycamore (or sycomore) ficus sycomorus, known now as a sycamore-fig or a fig-mulberry, comes from the ancient Greek fig plus μόρον (móron) the word for mulberry. There also may have been some influence in the derivation of the word from the Hebrew for it: שִׁקְמָה (shikmá)
But what can that possibly have to do with sycophancy?
The -phancy part of the word is derived from the Greek φαίνω (phaínō) meaning I show or demonstrate. So sycophancy is literally "the showing of figs", which makes no sense until we get into some fig sauce..
σῦκον was also the ancient Greek metaphor for a vulva. But sycophants weren't ancient Greek lady flashers, baring their bits to boys. The σῦκον was also a very insulting hand gesture, where the thumb was pushed up between two finger to (supposedly) resemble a vulva.
Ancient Greek politicians would, it seems, secretly arrange for their followers to 'flash their figs' at their opponents to ridicule them in public. The people prepared to run after politicians waving fanny gestures at them were the original sycophants.
I'm actually quite surprised - I'd have thought the 52% would have stuck with it for a bit longer. This must show that many weren't hardcore euro-phobes but simply shits-and-giggles merchants. Tories beware!
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
I would have predicted with that many Lab voters the Cons would have won on preferences but apparently not. Interesting to see how the votes broke.
I have to go to Falkirk Sheriff Court on occasion, or at least I did before most appearances were on screen. It is, to put it kindly, a dump, deeply depressed like so much of central Scotland with a High Street of empty shops and full of drug addicts. I find the Tory performance there astonishing and Labour's even more so in a less good way.
The retiring Labour Councillor was the former Provost so I presume he had a personal vote.
Possibly, but that too is indicative of the problem. What is left of SLAB is a generation that were very much used to ruling the roost in Scotland and appointing their pals to sundry quangos and public bodies. Below that, in the current generation, there seems to be nothing, a waste land. As people like that Provost retire from the scene what is replacing them?
The Conservatives in Scotland should become a distinct party which takes the Tory whip at Westminster, called the Unionists. The door is there, its wide open and it has been for a while.
Then the Scottish public can be like the Northern Irish public. Bitterly divided on Nationalist vs Unionist lines with both sides shouting at each other - and utterly ignored by the rest of the country as the UK government uses its own MPs from its own Party to set the agenda.
It's definitely all Brexit. Those ships in California, the container price quadrupling, gas prices rocketing. All of it is Brexit. Now we can add empty German supermarket shelves.
What isn't Brexit responsible for?
Those of us who voted for it should obviously be ashamed. Spoiling the German's Christmas like that.
This, and the various articles about similar problems in the US, really show that the media's desperation to blame current difficulties on Brexit is both dishonest and parochial (ironically). It may have a short term effect, as Mike's thread header indicates, but cynicism about what we are being told, which was a significant part of leave's success, can only be increased as the absurdities multiply.
They've learned nothing from the 'there are no strawberries in the shops' claims.
Bloody hell that article on Germany had an interesting little fact - price for petrol is €2 per litre! Absolutely mad. We're in the middle of a domestic price spike and it's about €1.65 per litre. Greece was about €1.75 per litre. What the fuck is going on in Germany?! Are their refineries and forecourts price gouging?
I dont think that is correct. Not in Freiberg im Breisgau where my stepson lives and this is an expensive station, others are cheaper
The UK’s baby boom of the early 2000s is about to flood universities and colleges with tens of thousands more school leavers every year, according to the former universities minister David Willetts.
Willetts warns, in a report published on Friday, that the comprehensive spending review needs to fund an expansion in further and higher education to absorb the increase, or risk too many young people being trapped in low-paid work.
Allocate 5% of them to HGV training and 5% to GP training. But this time pay for it, so it actually happens, rather than announce yet another 5 year recruitment target and simply forget about it, then wonder why we are worse off in 5 years time. What else?
I'm so old I remember when everyone was saying who in their right mind would go into trucking since AI would be driving lorries within a few years.
Self driving cars / lorries were always 3 years away until suddenly that 3 years became 10 as the niche cases arrived.
There's a kerfuffle about 'cabotage', which is a strange restriction on trade that I was previously unaware of. It seems to prevent non-brits carrying out transport services within Britain. Does it have legal force? If brexit has brought this to the fore then that is a plus imo.
Another look at something vaguely politics related in Etymology Etcetera - sycophancy, sycamores and their relation to figs..
Both syc- words share as their root the ancient Greek σῦκον (sûkon) meaning "fig".
The tree that we call a sycamore is not the same tree as the original, biblical reference. Our tree was introduced to Britain in the 15C and is now naturalised here; it's entirely unrelated to the biblical tree, and is in fact part of the lychee family. I presume it being once named the sycamore was the result of some ancient erroneous taxonomy. The "original" sycamore (or sycomore) ficus sycomorus, known now as a sycamore-fig or a fig-mulberry, comes from the ancient Greek fig plus μόρον (móron) the word for mulberry. There also may have been some influence in the derivation of the word from the Hebrew for it: שִׁקְמָה (shikmá)
But what can that possibly have to do with sycophancy?
The -phancy part of the word is derived from the Greek φαίνω (phaínō) meaning I show or demonstrate. So sycophancy is literally "the showing of figs", which makes no sense until we get into some fig sauce..
σῦκον was also the ancient Greek metaphor for a vulva. But sycophants weren't ancient Greek lady flashers, baring their bits to boys. The σῦκον was also a very insulting hand gesture, where the thumb was pushed up between two finger to (supposedly) resemble a vulva.
Ancient Greek politicians would, it seems, secretly arrange for their followers to 'flash their figs' at their opponents to ridicule them in public. The people prepared to run after politicians waving fanny gestures at them were the original sycophants.
Sycamores are horrible trees. Just giant weeds basically.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
Except that's not matched by the figures that were shown here the other day that showed there'd been [from memory] ~70k reduction in British HGV drivers over the pandemic and ~10k reduction in EU HGV drivers in the UK.
So its not all pre-existing, and its not EU drivers going home either. Its primarily British drivers leaving the sector and getting jobs doing things like deliveries for Amazon as they could get comparable pay and better conditions.
So we return back to the only viable solution that works: Improve pay and conditions.
The UK’s baby boom of the early 2000s is about to flood universities and colleges with tens of thousands more school leavers every year, according to the former universities minister David Willetts.
Willetts warns, in a report published on Friday, that the comprehensive spending review needs to fund an expansion in further and higher education to absorb the increase, or risk too many young people being trapped in low-paid work.
Allocate 5% of them to HGV training and 5% to GP training. But this time pay for it, so it actually happens, rather than announce yet another 5 year recruitment target and simply forget about it, then wonder why we are worse off in 5 years time. What else?
I'm so old I remember when everyone was saying who in their right mind would go into trucking since AI would be driving lorries within a few years.
That was before you could work a few years and then retire!
I'm actually quite surprised - I'd have thought the 52% would have stuck with it for a bit longer. This must show that many weren't hardcore euro-phobes but simply shits-and-giggles merchants. Tories beware!
Taking out the Don’t Knows, it’s 56/44. In the same ball park as some of the polls in the week before the referendum
They're still using this language. We'll "allow" butchers in "on a temporary basis" to solve our problem, then kick them back out. As if entry to Britain is a golden ticket. Off-the-scale arrogance. https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1448700769708949508
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
The Shire always seemed a very nice place to live except when naughty Mr Saruman got control. A lot like England, funnily enough. Wandering around trees looking all ethereal always seemed seriously boring to me.
Another look at something vaguely politics related in Etymology Etcetera - sycophancy, sycamores and their relation to figs..
Both syc- words share as their root the ancient Greek σῦκον (sûkon) meaning "fig".
The tree that we call a sycamore is not the same tree as the original, biblical reference. Our tree was introduced to Britain in the 15C and is now naturalised here; it's entirely unrelated to the biblical tree, and is in fact part of the lychee family. I presume it being once named the sycamore was the result of some ancient erroneous taxonomy. The "original" sycamore (or sycomore) ficus sycomorus, known now as a sycamore-fig or a fig-mulberry, comes from the ancient Greek fig plus μόρον (móron) the word for mulberry. There also may have been some influence in the derivation of the word from the Hebrew for it: שִׁקְמָה (shikmá)
But what can that possibly have to do with sycophancy?
The -phancy part of the word is derived from the Greek φαίνω (phaínō) meaning I show or demonstrate. So sycophancy is literally "the showing of figs", which makes no sense until we get into some fig sauce..
σῦκον was also the ancient Greek metaphor for a vulva. But sycophants weren't ancient Greek lady flashers, baring their bits to boys. The σῦκον was also a very insulting hand gesture, where the thumb was pushed up between two finger to (supposedly) resemble a vulva.
Ancient Greek politicians would, it seems, secretly arrange for their followers to 'flash their figs' at their opponents to ridicule them in public. The people prepared to run after politicians waving fanny gestures at them were the original sycophants.
Sycamores are horrible trees. Just giant weeds basically.
Really bad for horses too. Eating the seeds can cause fatal myopathy.
They're still using this language. We'll "allow" butchers in "on a temporary basis" to solve our problem, then kick them back out. As if entry to Britain is a golden ticket. Off-the-scale arrogance. https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1448700769708949508
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
The 25,000 “Brexit Returners” weren’t deported, and still have the right to work in the UK if they wish.
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
No honestly I’m genuinely confused now. So because we left the EU and now have a shortfall of 120K plus HGV drivers we give EU drivers the right to work here without reciprocal rights for UK drivers? How is that taking back control? #LostControl https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58921498
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
The 25,000 “Brexit Returners” weren’t deported, and still have the right to work in the UK if they wish.
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
Exactly.
If they had decent pay and conditions then the people who'd come over would still be doing the job.
Instead they had a "use them and lose them" attitude where they could treat people like shit and then just say "Next!" when someone quit.
Now they can't just say "Next!" anymore. Try being decent employers and keeping a hold of your employees.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
The 25,000 “Brexit Returners” weren’t deported, and still have the right to work in the UK if they wish.
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
"Still have the right to work in the UK". If you tell them to fuck off and the country doesn't want them they will fuck off.
But at least you are accepting that it is indeed Brexit that is exacerbating our version of a global problem.
No honestly I’m genuinely confused now. So because we left the EU and now have a shortfall of 120K plus HGV drivers we give EU drivers the right to work here without reciprocal rights for UK drivers? How is that taking back control? #LostControl https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58921498
Is there a reason you don't name the person whose Tweet you're quoting or give them credit?
Or are those your words? The BBC didn't write that they're genuinely confused did they? Don't you think whoever did write it deserves the credit, why are you trying to steal it? No integrity?
I would have predicted with that many Lab voters the Cons would have won on preferences but apparently not. Interesting to see how the votes broke.
I have to go to Falkirk Sheriff Court on occasion, or at least I did before most appearances were on screen. It is, to put it kindly, a dump, deeply depressed like so much of central Scotland with a High Street of empty shops and full of drug addicts. I find the Tory performance there astonishing and Labour's even more so in a less good way.
The retiring Labour Councillor was the former Provost so I presume he had a personal vote.
Possibly, but that too is indicative of the problem. What is left of SLAB is a generation that were very much used to ruling the roost in Scotland and appointing their pals to sundry quangos and public bodies. Below that, in the current generation, there seems to be nothing, a waste land. As people like that Provost retire from the scene what is replacing them?
The Conservatives in Scotland should become a distinct party which takes the Tory whip at Westminster, called the Unionists. The door is there, its wide open and it has been for a while.
Then the Scottish public can be like the Northern Irish public. Bitterly divided on Nationalist vs Unionist lines with both sides shouting at each other - and utterly ignored by the rest of the country as the UK government uses its own MPs from its own Party to set the agenda.
Unless there is a hung parliament and the DUP have the balance of power as in 2017 or maybe the SNP in 2023/4
There's a kerfuffle about 'cabotage', which is a strange restriction on trade that I was previously unaware of. It seems to prevent non-brits carrying out transport services within Britain. Does it have legal force? If brexit has brought this to the fore then that is a plus imo.
Here's an article from a libertarian Brexit perspective;
(TLDR: The problem isn't raw driver numbers, it's how much time they now spend driving around with empty trailers. That's why the UK is finding it harder to cope than EU countries.)
The government's dilemma is that, on one hand, restricting the work EU drivers can do on their way home makes the whole haulage system less efficient, but more pay for truck drivers is the big Brexit Benefit the government is pointing to right now.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
BREAKING: NHS Test and Trace have suspended operations at the Immensa Health Clinic’s Lab in Wolverhampton following negative PCR tests after positive LFTs
All tests, however accurate, are subject to operator error. LFTs probably more so, since they are mostly done by members of the public - but it's unlikely that would lead to false positives. Even in the case of contamination, it would be quite likely that the individual had contact with someone who was infected.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
The 25,000 “Brexit Returners” weren’t deported, and still have the right to work in the UK if they wish.
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
"Still have the right to work in the UK". If you tell them to fuck off and the country doesn't want them they will fuck off.
But at least you are accepting that it is indeed Brexit that is exacerbating our version of a global problem.
It is indeed exacerbating it in a good way.
All countries are facing the same problem, but if we were still in the EU the solution would be to just nick European drivers at a fraction of domestic wages because we could and shove the problem onto somebody else.
Now we need to come up with a proper solution instead. Now employers need to offer decent pay and conditions instead of just getting the next person to come, be treated like a piece of shit and burnout and be replaced instead.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
The 25,000 “Brexit Returners” weren’t deported, and still have the right to work in the UK if they wish.
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
"Still have the right to work in the UK". If you tell them to fuck off and the country doesn't want them they will fuck off.
But at least you are accepting that it is indeed Brexit that is exacerbating our version of a global problem.
It is indeed exacerbating it in a good way.
All countries are facing the same problem, but if we were still in the EU the solution would be to just nick European drivers at a fraction of domestic wages because we could and shove the problem onto somebody else.
Now we need to come up with a proper solution instead. Now employers need to offer decent pay and conditions instead of just getting the next person to come, be treated like a piece of shit and burnout and be replaced instead.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
None of it actually matters. The argument "we're in the lead if you exclude this or that group" is irrelevant in a democracy.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
Except that's not matched by the figures that were shown here the other day that showed there'd been [from memory] ~70k reduction in British HGV drivers over the pandemic and ~10k reduction in EU HGV drivers in the UK.
So its not all pre-existing, and its not EU drivers going home either. Its primarily British drivers leaving the sector and getting jobs doing things like deliveries for Amazon as they could get comparable pay and better conditions.
So we return back to the only viable solution that works: Improve pay and conditions.
No honestly I’m genuinely confused now. So because we left the EU and now have a shortfall of 120K plus HGV drivers we give EU drivers the right to work here without reciprocal rights for UK drivers? How is that taking back control? #LostControl https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58921498
Er, I’m “genuinely confused now” too - isn’t this exactly an example of “taking back control”?
We have a shortfall in a sector so we are able to change the rules to address this shortfall without the unintended consequences of being legally obliged to open up all sectors of employment in a free for all.
We can decide as a country to “control” labour to suit the needs of the country.
That is surely the definition of “control” - previously we could not “control” the movement of EU workers into the UK and so ended up saturating the market with cheap labour and so had “no control”…..
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
The ONS gives the number of EU workers in the UK for the Apr-Jun period as:
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
The Shire always seemed a very nice place to live except when naughty Mr Saruman got control. A lot like England, funnily enough. Wandering around trees looking all ethereal always seemed seriously boring to me.
The hobbits and dwarves did seem to have more fun than any of the others.
I would have predicted with that many Lab voters the Cons would have won on preferences but apparently not. Interesting to see how the votes broke.
I have to go to Falkirk Sheriff Court on occasion, or at least I did before most appearances were on screen. It is, to put it kindly, a dump, deeply depressed like so much of central Scotland with a High Street of empty shops and full of drug addicts. I find the Tory performance there astonishing and Labour's even more so in a less good way.
The retiring Labour Councillor was the former Provost so I presume he had a personal vote.
Possibly, but that too is indicative of the problem. What is left of SLAB is a generation that were very much used to ruling the roost in Scotland and appointing their pals to sundry quangos and public bodies. Below that, in the current generation, there seems to be nothing, a waste land. As people like that Provost retire from the scene what is replacing them?
The Conservatives in Scotland should become a distinct party which takes the Tory whip at Westminster, called the Unionists. The door is there, its wide open and it has been for a while.
Then the Scottish public can be like the Northern Irish public. Bitterly divided on Nationalist vs Unionist lines with both sides shouting at each other - and utterly ignored by the rest of the country as the UK government uses its own MPs from its own Party to set the agenda.
Philip: * That is exactly what we have now but it benefits the SNP because the Unionist vote is divided and inefficient. * That is not what we see with the CDU/CSU in Germany. *The number of MPs from Scotland will mean that these MPs will never be as peripheral as Ulster MPs are. It takes a statistical freak for them to be relevant. It happened in 2017 and they blew it. * Oh yes, and most importantly of all it is the only way I can see the SNP ever losing power in Scotland.
Regarding Brexit, I think it is possible that it will end up getting cancelled. A few people will be fuming; but most will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life.
Not a chance in hell.
It can't be cancelled, it's happened. And it won't be reversed either.
Neither politicians nor the public are going to want to go through that again, and even if we did have a collective reversal the French would say non.
England will never again be a part of the EU.
It can. All it takes is for a government consumed by woke thinking to declare the whole thing as racist and proscribe any opposition to rejoining the EU on the same grounds. And then they can just sign us back up again on whatever terms the EU demand. You think that this is mad but that is how a lot of woke remainers think.
Or perhaps more accurately, how you think 'a lot of woke remainers' think. You have at least given us some insight into how you think...
I had my company leaving drinks last night. I was sitting in the corner with an ex-colleague (alumni of the firm) who's a very dark skinned female Egyptian in her mid-40s who - totally unprompted - spent 3 minutes ranting to me about how Woke the firm had become and how it was totally OTT. We were both slightly worse for wear but she was fed up being categorised and its divisiveness.
An ever bigger smile crept across my face as I listened and I eventually had to politely interrupt her to say I agreed with her 100%. 110%. 500%.
There's a kerfuffle about 'cabotage', which is a strange restriction on trade that I was previously unaware of. It seems to prevent non-brits carrying out transport services within Britain. Does it have legal force? If brexit has brought this to the fore then that is a plus imo.
Here's an article from a libertarian Brexit perspective;
(TLDR: The problem isn't raw driver numbers, it's how much time they now spend driving around with empty trailers. That's why the UK is finding it harder to cope than EU countries.)
The government's dilemma is that, on one hand, restricting the work EU drivers can do on their way home makes the whole haulage system less efficient, but more pay for truck drivers is the big Brexit Benefit the government is pointing to right now.
Interesting article. Things you learn on PB! Digesting figs and sycamores was already a nice titbit this am.
There's a kerfuffle about 'cabotage', which is a strange restriction on trade that I was previously unaware of. It seems to prevent non-brits carrying out transport services within Britain. Does it have legal force? If brexit has brought this to the fore then that is a plus imo.
It’s a wierd concept, that I first came across in the aviation industry.
Say that, for example, Emirates wants to fly a plane from Dubai to the UK, but can’t sell a whole plane full of tickets. What they might do, is sell a single flight for both London and Glasgow, and have the plane fly Dubai>London>Glasgow, and back the same way to Dubai.
The ‘cabotage’ question is, if they’re letting half the people off the plane in London, can they sell tickets purely on the London to Glasgow leg of the flight? More pertinently, can they do this without being registered as a British airline, without paying their cabin crew the UK minimum wage, without Union representation and at prices well under what BA might charge for a London to Glasgow flight?
Regarding Brexit, I think it is possible that it will end up getting cancelled. A few people will be fuming; but most will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life.
Not a chance in hell.
It can't be cancelled, it's happened. And it won't be reversed either.
Neither politicians nor the public are going to want to go through that again, and even if we did have a collective reversal the French would say non.
England will never again be a part of the EU.
It can. All it takes is for a government consumed by woke thinking to declare the whole thing as racist and proscribe any opposition to rejoining the EU on the same grounds. And then they can just sign us back up again on whatever terms the EU demand. You think that this is mad but that is how a lot of woke remainers think.
Or perhaps more accurately, how you think 'a lot of woke remainers' think. You have at least given us some insight into how you think...
I had my company leaving drinks last night. I was sitting in the corner with an ex-colleague (alumni of the firm) who's a very dark skinned female Egyptian in her mid-40s who - totally unprompted - spent 3 minutes ranting to me about how Woke the firm had become and how it was totally OTT. We were both slightly worse for wear but she was fed up being categorised and its divisiveness.
An ever bigger smile crept across my face as I listened and I eventually had to politely interrupt her to say I agreed with her 100%. 110%. 500%.
Would you honestly bet against the country spending the next 2 and a half years learning, the hard way, that though it may be conceptually appealing, Brexit just doesn’t work. Johnson puffs cheeks, says he’s done his best, reluctantly pledges to rejoin. 500 seats. https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1448937912041607205
They're still using this language. We'll "allow" butchers in "on a temporary basis" to solve our problem, then kick them back out. As if entry to Britain is a golden ticket. Off-the-scale arrogance. https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1448700769708949508
Entry to Britain is a golden ticket.
Typical brexiter arrogance thinking people will want to come to their country just to be eaten by nut-testing squirrels or turned into enormous blueberry pies.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
The ONS gives the number of EU workers in the UK for the Apr-Jun period as:
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Yet 6.500m applied for and received settled status visas - which gives an illustration of the turnover issue.
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
The Shire always seemed a very nice place to live except when naughty Mr Saruman got control. A lot like England, funnily enough. Wandering around trees looking all ethereal always seemed seriously boring to me.
The hobbits and dwarves did seem to have more fun than any of the others.
Would you honestly bet against the country spending the next 2 and a half years learning, the hard way, that though it may be conceptually appealing, Brexit just doesn’t work. Johnson puffs cheeks, says he’s done his best, reluctantly pledges to rejoin. 500 seats. https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1448937912041607205
Regarding Brexit, I think it is possible that it will end up getting cancelled. A few people will be fuming; but most will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life.
Not a chance in hell.
It can't be cancelled, it's happened. And it won't be reversed either.
Neither politicians nor the public are going to want to go through that again, and even if we did have a collective reversal the French would say non.
England will never again be a part of the EU.
It can. All it takes is for a government consumed by woke thinking to declare the whole thing as racist and proscribe any opposition to rejoining the EU on the same grounds. And then they can just sign us back up again on whatever terms the EU demand. You think that this is mad but that is how a lot of woke remainers think.
Or perhaps more accurately, how you think 'a lot of woke remainers' think. You have at least given us some insight into how you think...
I had my company leaving drinks last night. I was sitting in the corner with an ex-colleague (alumni of the firm) who's a very dark skinned female Egyptian in her mid-40s who - totally unprompted - spent 3 minutes ranting to me about how Woke the firm had become and how it was totally OTT. We were both slightly worse for wear but she was fed up being categorised and its divisiveness.
An ever bigger smile crept across my face as I listened and I eventually had to politely interrupt her to say I agreed with her 100%. 110%. 500%.
Sometimes people surprise you.
Your company sounds like an awful place to work.
That's why I left.
And why I've always been fairly relaxed about "political correctness/woke gone mad" in the private sector*. Companies that persistently do stupid things and enact stupid policies will lose good people and, consequently, do less well (even beyond losing good people if they waste their employees time). The market will sort it out, most likely. Equally, companies with a sexist/racist/homophobic culture will like fail too. The ones that prosper will be those with a good atmosphere based on sensible policies, open debate and compromise.
*And, indeed, most of the public sector - people there will also leave jobs if it gets too painful, the exceptions perhaps being health care and teaching where there are fewer opportunities to change job without also changing career, the private sector roles being fewer in number.
Switching between R4 and 5 on the car journey to work, and hearing about bloody Adele's new song every few minutes, made me laugh when I saw this tweet..
@edcumming hearing a new adele song always like meeting your new cellmate
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
The ONS gives the number of EU workers in the UK for the Apr-Jun period as:
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Is your plan to force those domestic workers who retired from 2010 onwards back into work? Changing demographics drive migration shocker. Add in making 50 and 60 somethings pretty rich at the expense of those below to enable early retirement or part time working.
Support for Brexit gently but clearly dropping; Tories still in the lead. How so? Reasons in some sort of order:
1) Only 1 centre right party. 4 (inc SNP) centre left ones. Do the maths.
2) Many moderates of all sorts still find Labour unelectable as a party because so many of their members hate their own leader
3) It doesn't matter what you think of Brexit as long as there is no serious party with a clear policy of reversal, either to the EU or to EFTA.
4) And if no other party plans to reverse, then you may as well vote for the party that believes in Brexit instead of a party that will stick with it without belief in it
5) Moderate voters don't like being called scum
I gave your post a like but then got to your point '5' which was so silly I reversed it.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
No you are wrong. There are divides due to age and due to education.
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
a) You don't care if what you are stating is accurate or illogical? Are you really saying that? You still seem to be struggling with the difference between facts and opinions still
b) You quote ivory tower liberals stating people of the right are illogical. It may well be the case that some do that, but it isn't the case with me. With one other exception I have never done that here. I give you two examples as you didn't like the one I gave of @Philip_Thompson . I think it is fair to say that @Sean_F and @Sandpit are to the right of posters on this site generally yet I have never said any of their posts are illogical. On the contrary I admire both of them as being very rational and logical contributors, which I enjoy. You see it isn't because you are on the right. I have no issue with people on the right.
c) Try this out. It is very very crude as stuff isn't linear which I am assuming it is but it will do for the explanation as otherwise it would be very complex
According to the internet the output from humans of CO2 through just breathing is about 1kg per day
Let us say the average profligate factor for a country is 'x' That is how many more times per head CO2 is produced in that economy
Let us say the population is 'y'
Let us say the birth rate is 'w'
Let us say a generation is replaced every 'z' years.
Let us say that the year you want to predict the CO2 output for is 'v' years away
The CO2 output for that country is then 1xywv/2z
Hopefully I haven't messed that up. I usually do but someone hear will point that out if I have. As I said this is very crude because none of these factors are linear so this would normally be a very complex calculation, but this will do to make the point.
I also haven't taken into account that the birth rate causes exponential growth so it is also wrong for that reason also, but will be understating the amount and be relatively accurate for short term forecasting.
Actually what I have done is embarrassingly crude, but hopefully makes the point.
The KEY point is the birth rate 'w' is directly proportional to the output. The reason the West out performs in CO2 output is the profligate factor 'x' is also directly proportional and has been a much bigger factor.
Now waiting for this absolute drivel of maths to be massacred as I know there are lot more able people on PB than me. Sorry!
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
No you are wrong. There are divides due to age and due to education.
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
Very brave taking this educational challenge on! And futile!
Such is the US-style partisanship of everything Brexit these days (and everything Covid, which in some ways has become even more partisan) that it seems some people are incapable of accepting that many of the supply chain problems we have are global, and other people are incapable of accepting - or perhaps admitting - that Brexit could be making things worse.
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
There's a kerfuffle about 'cabotage', which is a strange restriction on trade that I was previously unaware of. It seems to prevent non-brits carrying out transport services within Britain. Does it have legal force? If brexit has brought this to the fore then that is a plus imo.
It’s a wierd concept, that I first came across in the aviation industry.
Say that, for example, Emirates wants to fly a plane from Dubai to the UK, but can’t sell a whole plane full of tickets. What they might do, is sell a single flight for both London and Glasgow, and have the plane fly Dubai>London>Glasgow, and back the same way to Dubai.
The ‘cabotage’ question is, if they’re letting half the people off the plane in London, can they sell tickets purely on the London to Glasgow leg of the flight? More pertinently, can they do this without being registered as a British airline, without paying their cabin crew the UK minimum wage, without Union representation and at prices well under what BA might charge for a London to Glasgow flight?
To add, this is exactly what the likes of Ryanair used to do when the UK was in the EU. They’d base a plane in, for example, Vilnius, and fly routes like Vilnius>London>Brussels>Düsseldorf>Glasgow>London>Vilnius - with a Lithuanian crew, paid Lithuanian wages. Perhapas the next day, they’d fly Vilnius>London>Glasgow>Belfast>London>Vilnius, there’s three UK domestic flights in there, for that Lithuanian aircraft and crew.
‘Cabotage’ rules mean they now need to use British-based planes for UK domestic flights. Same rules as for lorries.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
The ONS gives the number of EU workers in the UK for the Apr-Jun period as:
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Is your plan to force those domestic workers who retired from 2010 onwards back into work? Changing demographics drive migration shocker. Add in making 50 and 60 somethings pretty rich at the expense of those below to enable early retirement or part time working.
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
The Shire always seemed a very nice place to live except when naughty Mr Saruman got control. A lot like England, funnily enough. Wandering around trees looking all ethereal always seemed seriously boring to me.
The hobbits and dwarves did seem to have more fun than any of the others.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
No you are wrong. There are divides due to age and due to education.
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
I think that's right. Hence, partly, the well-known left-wing bias of academia.
Such is the US-style partisanship of everything Brexit these days (and everything Covid, which in some ways has become even more partisan) that it seems some people are incapable of accepting that many of the supply chain problems we have are global, and other people are incapable of accepting - or perhaps admitting - that Brexit could be making things worse.
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
Travelling to Essex from N. Wales last week we noticed lots of lorries heading Felixstowe (etc)-wards on the A14. Exacerbated by a fire on the M1, no doubt, but it did seem busy.
Such is the US-style partisanship of everything Brexit these days (and everything Covid, which in some ways has become even more partisan) that it seems some people are incapable of accepting that many of the supply chain problems we have are global, and other people are incapable of accepting - or perhaps admitting - that Brexit could be making things worse.
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
Travelling to Essex from N. Wales last week we noticed lots of lorries heading Felixstowe (etc)-wards on the A14. Exacerbated by a fire on the M1, no doubt, but it did seem busy.
Have they finsished the upgrade works on the A14 yet? Last time I was in the UK, it was one big lorry park from Kettering to Cambridge.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
No you are wrong. There are divides due to age and due to education.
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
I think that's right. Hence, partly, the well-known left-wing bias of academia.
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
The Shire always seemed a very nice place to live except when naughty Mr Saruman got control. A lot like England, funnily enough. Wandering around trees looking all ethereal always seemed seriously boring to me.
The hobbits and dwarves did seem to have more fun than any of the others.
Britons over 50 with university degrees back the Tories by 41% to 29% for Labour while those aged 18 to 49 who left school after GCSE back Labour by 39% to 29%.
Confirms the so called education gap is just an age gap as about 40% of under 50s graduated from university compared to about 10% of over 50s
No it doesn't. There's an age gap and an education gap. In both age groups Labour does better in the high education group and the Tories better in the low education group.
The Tories lead amongst graduates and non graduates over 50, Labour lead amongst graduates and non graduates under 50.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
No you are wrong. There are divides due to age and due to education.
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
I think that's right. Hence, partly, the well-known left-wing bias of academia.
No casual lazy stereotyping in that post then.
Nope, fact based analysis. See here amongst many other studies.
Given the continued diet of bad news globally and the efforts to blame Brexit for all of it, then it is only surprising the number is not lower. The global supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit. If we were in the EU we would still have many of the issues we currently have today. It is also easy for companies to blame Brexit for all their woes and their lack of planning. The HGV driver shortage, of which Brexit is a small part, has been many years in the making. Haulage companies have done little to fill the gap and train new employees. They would sooner exploit workers using contract and agency working which stuffed them when IR35 compliance was tightened and people walked away. Again, IR35 is nothing new and neither was the plan to tighten up on it.
We are not rejoining anytime soon and it is sensible to try to make it work, as Blair said we need to rejoin from a strong position. If we ever do.
Have to say I admire the cynical marketing of some of the confectionary makers saying there may be shortages so buy now. Of course any confectionary bought now is not likely to last too long.
As with Philip you are an absolutist so we expect such posts. Yes of course there are global issues impacting the supply chain - its just that we are being hit harder by them because if Brexit.
You and yours keep screeching "nothing to do with Brexit". And yet Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox has just announced that the ban on Cabotage - Brexit - will be lifted so that the GB-only acute case of logistics hell can be eased.
If, as you say, the "supply chain issues we are living through at the moment are nothing to do with Brexit" then how do you account for the GB-specific 100% down to Brexit amplification of those issues? The government has accepted that it absolutely is to do with Brexit and is now acting accordingly.
Michael Green is flexible enough to recognise reality. Why aren't you?
California has got about 30 container ships currently waiting to dock because they can't clear existing containers fast enough. The country getting slammed hardest by the mess in the shipping and haulage industry is the US, by a pretty wide margin too.
Yep! And where did I say that the effective strike in the US is either a result of Brexit or proof that there are no Brexit effects here?
The thing in the US is a *different issue* as was the Belgian strike which led to a brief outage in some Brussels supermarkets. Our own government knows that we have some unique Brexit issues - like Cabotage - which they have finally woken up to fix.
They know it - why are you still in denial?
The issue isn't Brexit, it's decades of underinvestment by the state and private operators in ports and haulage. Both decided to paper over the cracks by importing low wage workers. The US has done the same. Both countries are now reaping the rewards of those poor decisions.
You are absolutely right. Brexit is a small factor in this. 15,000 HGV drivers returned to the EU. Our shortage is over 100,000. We lost more due to IR35 changes.
The number of HGV drivers who left during the pandemic was 78,000 of which EU drivers were 12,000 of the total. Tiny.
Brexit is a convenient scapegoat. It certainly hasn’t helped but it is not the main cause of this issue.
25,000 Brexit returners, apparently. From More or Less.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
What we need to know is number of EU workers before Brexit compared with number of EU workers after Brexit for each sector of the economy.
The ONS gives the number of EU workers in the UK for the Apr-Jun period as:
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Yet 6.500m applied for and received settled status visas - which gives an illustration of the turnover issue.
And the sad truth is that we have no idea how many of those 6m are here, might return or, for that matter, had an HGV license.
Nearly all of this sound and fury is people grabbing onto a statistic which seems to support their position without context or confidence. I include myself in that critique.
Such is the US-style partisanship of everything Brexit these days (and everything Covid, which in some ways has become even more partisan) that it seems some people are incapable of accepting that many of the supply chain problems we have are global, and other people are incapable of accepting - or perhaps admitting - that Brexit could be making things worse.
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
Such is the US-style partisanship of everything Brexit these days (and everything Covid, which in some ways has become even more partisan) that it seems some people are incapable of accepting that many of the supply chain problems we have are global, and other people are incapable of accepting - or perhaps admitting - that Brexit could be making things worse.
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
Andrew Pierce made the point on GMB it was a global crisis which is exacerbated in the UK by Brexit. Denied by his Labour supporting Chum who put it all down to Brexit. I think that is right. Brexit has not helped but the problems are largely global.
I think what does not help is FBPE head cases blame Brexit for everything and basically lie and overexaggerate about some of the issues we have such as so-called shortages in supermarkets. Of course die hard brexiteers are just as bad too.
As for the cabotage changes surely this is all part of taking back control ? Would we have the flexibility to do this had we been in the EU. I do not know.
a) You don't care if what you are stating is accurate or illogical? Are you really saying that? You still seem to be struggling with the difference between facts and opinions still
b) You quote ivory tower liberals stating people of the right are illogical. It may well be the case that some do that, but it isn't the case with me. With one other exception I have never done that here. I give you two examples as you didn't like the one I gave of @Philip_Thompson . I think it is fair to say that @Sean_F and @Sandpit are to the right of posters on this site generally yet I have never said any of their posts are illogical. On the contrary I admire both of them as being very rational and logical contributors, which I enjoy. You see it isn't because you are on the right. I have no issue with people on the right.
c) Try this out. It is very very crude as stuff isn't linear which I am assuming it is but it will do for the explanation as otherwise it would be very complex
According to the internet the output from humans of CO2 through just breathing is about 1kg per day
Let us say the average profligate factor for a country is 'x' That is how many more times per head CO2 is produced in that economy
Let us say the population is 'y'
Let us say the birth rate is 'w'
Let us say a generation is replaced every 'z' years.
Let us say that the year you want to predict the CO2 output for is 'v' years away
The CO2 output for that country is then 1xywv/2z
Hopefully I haven't messed that up. I usually do but someone hear will point that out if I have. As I said this is very crude because none of these factors are linear so this would normally be a very complex calculation, but this will do to make the point.
I also haven't taken into account that the birth rate causes exponential growth so it is also wrong for that reason also, but will be understating the amount and be relatively accurate for short term forecasting.
Actually what I have done is embarrassingly crude, but hopefully makes the point.
The KEY point is the birth rate 'w' is directly proportional to the output. The reason the West out performs in CO2 output is the profligate factor 'x' is also directly proportional and has been a much bigger factor.
Now waiting for this absolute drivel of maths to be massacred as I know there are lot more able people on PB than me. Sorry!
I'm sorry that is cobblers. Just getting in before anyone else does.
@HYUFD you missed a great opportunity to tell me my maths was pants.
Still the directly proportionate is still true. At my age I need to stick to very simple things.
c) Try this out. It is very very crude as stuff isn't linear which I am assuming it is but it will do for the explanation as otherwise it would be very complex
According to the internet the output from humans of CO2 through just breathing is about 1kg per day
Let us say the average profligate factor for a country is 'x' That is how many more times per head CO2 is produced in that economy
Let us say the population is 'y'
Let us say the birth rate is 'w'
Let us say a generation is replaced every 'z' years.
Let us say that the year you want to predict the CO2 output for is 'v' years away
The CO2 output for that country is then 1xywv/2z
[snip]
Now waiting for this absolute drivel of maths to be massacred as I know there are lot more able people on PB than me. Sorry!
In general you are right but there is a factorial change that you need to take into account. We're supposed to be getting to "net zero" where everyone is net responsible for zero emissions.
On your formula you can drop the 1 it isn't doing anything or necessary so xywv/2z is the formula.
Now swap out x for 0 since we've moved to net zero.
The formula then becomes 0ywv/2z = 0
w (and y) cease to matter once they're multiplied by 0. They only matter if we're not at zero.
So the technology to get us to zero is what matters. Once you've done that, then the quantity of people is irrelevant.
Comments
Love it.
But I'm not sure that thinking Brexit was a mistake is denial.
The government wants to change how frequently overseas HGV operators can deliver in the UK to help solve the current supply chain problems https://trib.al/LrU5tWn
It’s a clear-eyed view of when outsourcing does & doesn’t make sense, and how an engineering company that decides to fully out-source it’s core-competency and reduce itself to an assembler of outsourced components and a brand is asking for trouble.
There’s a copy here: https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/69746/hart-smith-on-outsourcing.pdf
An ever bigger smile crept across my face as I listened and I eventually had to politely interrupt her to say I agreed with her 100%. 110%. 500%.
Sometimes people surprise you.
The UK's invisible hand is acting in a smaller box now, so it can't do as much.
That may be worthwhile, but it's a real cost.
Talking of which ...
The Transport secretary was responding to complaints that new relaxation of rules on foreign lorry drivers makes it easier for EU drivers to come to UK without any reciprocal easing of rules to allow British drivers to go to EU.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1448913530581929987?t=-iyzaP1lE2QCLaeRdtHdSA&s=19
e.g. https://unherd.com/thepost/pcrs-are-not-as-reliable-as-you-might-think/
No where near as big a story as first seems.
The Conservatives in Scotland should become a distinct party which takes the Tory whip at Westminster, called the Unionists. The door is there, its wide open and it has been for a while.
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1448928864663638020?s=21
The logistics industry was one of the worst for using any trick possible to keep costs low while retaining some profit.
Both syc- words share as their root the ancient Greek σῦκον (sûkon) meaning "fig".
The tree that we call a sycamore is not the same tree as the original, biblical reference. Our tree was introduced to Britain in the 15C and is now naturalised here; it's entirely unrelated to the biblical tree, and is in fact part of the lychee family. I presume it being once named the sycamore was the result of some ancient erroneous taxonomy. The "original" sycamore (or sycomore) ficus sycomorus, known now as a sycamore-fig or a fig-mulberry, comes from the ancient Greek fig plus μόρον (móron) the word for mulberry. There also may have been some influence in the derivation of the word from the Hebrew for it: שִׁקְמָה (shikmá)
But what can that possibly have to do with sycophancy?
The -phancy part of the word is derived from the Greek φαίνω (phaínō) meaning I show or demonstrate. So sycophancy is literally "the showing of figs", which makes no sense until we get into some fig sauce..
σῦκον was also the ancient Greek metaphor for a vulva. But sycophants weren't ancient Greek lady flashers, baring their bits to boys. The σῦκον was also a very insulting hand gesture, where the thumb was pushed up between two finger to (supposedly) resemble a vulva.
Ancient Greek politicians would, it seems, secretly arrange for their followers to 'flash their figs' at their opponents to ridicule them in public. The people prepared to run after politicians waving fanny gestures at them were the original sycophants.
Add to the structural 50,000 shortage we've had for years and 25,000 fewer from reduced tests. So Brexit accounts for 50% of the "extra" shortage.
https://www.jet-tankstellen.de/tankstellen/freiburg/ingeborg-krummer-schroth-str-33/
Remainers = High Elves, they have seen the Light of Valinor; the uncreated radiance of the Two Trees and thereby live in wisdom and beauty.
Leavers = Hobbits, squatting in their filth strewn burrows wanking each other off and eating chicken foot stew.
So its not all pre-existing, and its not EU drivers going home either. Its primarily British drivers leaving the sector and getting jobs doing things like deliveries for Amazon as they could get comparable pay and better conditions.
So we return back to the only viable solution that works: Improve pay and conditions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
We'll "allow" butchers in "on a temporary basis" to solve our problem, then kick them back out.
As if entry to Britain is a golden ticket.
Off-the-scale arrogance. https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1448700769708949508
What has been revealed is that a number of companies were treating drivers very poorly and had huge turnover. Now they’re realising that they can no longer pick up the next load of Romanians off the boat, and make them sleep in the cab for week on end for barely minimum wage.
If they had decent pay and conditions then the people who'd come over would still be doing the job.
Instead they had a "use them and lose them" attitude where they could treat people like shit and then just say "Next!" when someone quit.
Now they can't just say "Next!" anymore. Try being decent employers and keeping a hold of your employees.
But at least you are accepting that it is indeed Brexit that is exacerbating our version of a global problem.
Or are those your words? The BBC didn't write that they're genuinely confused did they? Don't you think whoever did write it deserves the credit, why are you trying to steal it? No integrity?
https://capx.co/on-hgv-driver-shortages-both-sides-are-missing-the-point/
(TLDR: The problem isn't raw driver numbers, it's how much time they now spend driving around with empty trailers. That's why the UK is finding it harder to cope than EU countries.)
The government's dilemma is that, on one hand, restricting the work EU drivers can do on their way home makes the whole haulage system less efficient, but more pay for truck drivers is the big Brexit Benefit the government is pointing to right now.
As I said the divide is really an age one not an educational one
LFTs probably more so, since they are mostly done by members of the public - but it's unlikely that would lead to false positives. Even in the case of contamination, it would be quite likely that the individual had contact with someone who was infected.
All countries are facing the same problem, but if we were still in the EU the solution would be to just nick European drivers at a fraction of domestic wages because we could and shove the problem onto somebody else.
Now we need to come up with a proper solution instead. Now employers need to offer decent pay and conditions instead of just getting the next person to come, be treated like a piece of shit and burnout and be replaced instead.
We've taken away the cheat sheet.
https://www.mylondon.news/news/zone-1-news/london-underground-new-tube-map-21830686?fbclid=IwAR2jrfjsWk9f9BGISCu55RYHXjLc7OTVHm8jVBuFzlW1kbjS-_59Fhg7BEQ
Interestingly, it was the EU who refused to offer cabotage rights to the U.K., and we therefore responded in kind.
I’m not an expert on distribution, but it seems like a case where the EU simply wanted to hurt us, as I don’t see what they were “giving up”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000z6cd
Take it up with Tim Harford.
We have a shortfall in a sector so we are able to change the rules to address this shortfall without the unintended consequences of being legally obliged to open up all sectors of employment in a free for all.
We can decide as a country to “control” labour to suit the needs of the country.
That is surely the definition of “control” - previously we could not “control” the movement of EU workers into the UK and so ended up saturating the market with cheap labour and so had “no control”…..
2021 2.342m
2020 2.380m
2019 2.438m
2018 2.350m
2017 2.366m
2016 2.354m
2015 2.048m
2014 1.852m
2013 1.665m
2012 1.582m
2011 1.523m
2010 1.373m
Which leads me to wonder how hospitality, agriculture and transport could have survived a decade ago if they are as dependent upon workers from the EU as is now claimed.
Incidentally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z_aax7_QkY
Does suggest the elves are remainers
* That is exactly what we have now but it benefits the SNP because the Unionist vote is divided and inefficient.
* That is not what we see with the CDU/CSU in Germany.
*The number of MPs from Scotland will mean that these MPs will never be as peripheral as Ulster MPs are. It takes a statistical freak for them to be relevant. It happened in 2017 and they blew it.
* Oh yes, and most importantly of all it is the only way I can see the SNP ever losing power in Scotland.
Say that, for example, Emirates wants to fly a plane from Dubai to the UK, but can’t sell a whole plane full of tickets. What they might do, is sell a single flight for both London and Glasgow, and have the plane fly Dubai>London>Glasgow, and back the same way to Dubai.
The ‘cabotage’ question is, if they’re letting half the people off the plane in London, can they sell tickets purely on the London to Glasgow leg of the flight? More pertinently, can they do this without being registered as a British airline, without paying their cabin crew the UK minimum wage, without Union representation and at prices well under what BA might charge for a London to Glasgow flight?
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1448937912041607205
*And, indeed, most of the public sector - people there will also leave jobs if it gets too painful, the exceptions perhaps being health care and teaching where there are fewer opportunities to change job without also changing career, the private sector roles being fewer in number.
@edcumming
hearing a new adele song always like meeting your new cellmate
Let's look at over-50s. The figures are:
High educated Con 41-29 Lab
Low educated Con 52-22 Lab
So we can clearly see that within this age group higher education is correlated with higher support for Labour and lower support for the Conservatives compared to the low education group.
If we look at the under-50s the same educational splits give these figures:
High educated Con 22-43 Lab
Low educated Con 29-39 Lab
We see a similar difference between the two groups. Labour support is higher in the high education group when the age is the same.
If we look at the size of the difference then we can see that the Tory lead is +18 in low education compared to high education in over-50s and +11 for under-50s.
If we look at the difference by age then we see the Tory lead is +40 in over-50s compared to under-50s for low education voters and +33 for high education voters.
So we can see that the effect of age is about two and a half times as strong as the effect of education. Age is more important, but there is still a strong effect due to education.
a) You don't care if what you are stating is accurate or illogical? Are you really saying that? You still seem to be struggling with the difference between facts and opinions still
b) You quote ivory tower liberals stating people of the right are illogical. It may well be the case that some do that, but it isn't the case with me. With one other exception I have never done that here. I give you two examples as you didn't like the one I gave of @Philip_Thompson . I think it is fair to say that @Sean_F and @Sandpit are to the right of posters on this site generally yet I have never said any of their posts are illogical. On the contrary I admire both of them as being very rational and logical contributors, which I enjoy. You see it isn't because you are on the right. I have no issue with people on the right.
c) Try this out. It is very very crude as stuff isn't linear which I am assuming it is but it will do for the explanation as otherwise it would be very complex
According to the internet the output from humans of CO2 through just breathing is about 1kg per day
Let us say the average profligate factor for a country is 'x' That is how many more times per head CO2 is produced in that economy
Let us say the population is 'y'
Let us say the birth rate is 'w'
Let us say a generation is replaced every 'z' years.
Let us say that the year you want to predict the CO2 output for is 'v' years away
The CO2 output for that country is then 1xywv/2z
Hopefully I haven't messed that up. I usually do but someone hear will point that out if I have. As I said this is very crude because none of these factors are linear so this would normally be a very complex calculation, but this will do to make the point.
I also haven't taken into account that the birth rate causes exponential growth so it is also wrong for that reason also, but will be understating the amount and be relatively accurate for short term forecasting.
Actually what I have done is embarrassingly crude, but hopefully makes the point.
The KEY point is the birth rate 'w' is directly proportional to the output. The reason the West out performs in CO2 output is the profligate factor 'x' is also directly proportional and has been a much bigger factor.
Now waiting for this absolute drivel of maths to be massacred as I know there are lot more able people on PB than me. Sorry!
It may be pure coincidence but so many of the things that are now transpiring are soft-edged versions of exactly what I and my colleagues spent 4 years advising clients to prepare for in the event of no-deal. Including the terminology - I can dig out various bits of advice talking about cabotage, sanitary and phytosanitary checks, shortages of water treatment chemicals, costs per pallet for customs documentation, micro traders ceasing to sell into the UK, and so on. We also advised on potential long term upsides including greater automation, supply chain innovation, retraining. Things the government are now belatedly talking about.
One thing we got very wrong was the impact on circulation and the notorious Kent traffic jam that never happened. The lorries didn't clog up the M20, they just stayed at home (as did half the working population because of Covid).
‘Cabotage’ rules mean they now need to use British-based planes for UK domestic flights. Same rules as for lorries.
The number of British workers has also increased.
Good morning one and all. From Old King Cole who is, this morning so far, somewhat more optimistic about his & his wife's personal circumstances.
But it looks like its going to be a hard winter throughout Eastern Europe.
I wonder how much more attractive the UK will be in comparison.
https://cspicenter.org/reports/academicfreedom/
Nearly all of this sound and fury is people grabbing onto a statistic which seems to support their position without context or confidence. I include myself in that critique.
It must make this governing thing a tad tricky.
Back later
I think what does not help is FBPE head cases blame Brexit for everything and basically lie and overexaggerate about some of the issues we have such as so-called shortages in supermarkets. Of course die hard brexiteers are just as bad too.
As for the cabotage changes surely this is all part of taking back control ? Would we have the flexibility to do this had we been in the EU. I do not know.
@HYUFD you missed a great opportunity to tell me my maths was pants.
Still the directly proportionate is still true. At my age I need to stick to very simple things.
On your formula you can drop the 1 it isn't doing anything or necessary so xywv/2z is the formula.
Now swap out x for 0 since we've moved to net zero.
The formula then becomes 0ywv/2z = 0
w (and y) cease to matter once they're multiplied by 0. They only matter if we're not at zero.
So the technology to get us to zero is what matters. Once you've done that, then the quantity of people is irrelevant.