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Those saying Brexit right down to just 38% – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,853

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    It does change the election dynamic to "we're the party that will protect Brexit" being worth 42-45% at every election which is landslide territory as we saw in 2019.

    We are the party that will protect food a fuel shortages, cancelling Christmas and putting farmers and fishermen on the dole.

    Landslide...
    In 10-20 years those in their 30s now will be in their 50s and may look through rose tinted spectacles at the “good old days” in the EU.

    Nothing is certain
    Or the EU may not exist by then, or it could be radically different and have turned into the USE. It's tough to say what will be the case 20 years from now.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Sky reporting the Air Ambulance paramedics are still treating him before taking him to hospital and it highlights how serious this incident is

    They are now live above the scene

    “There’s an air ambulance right below us, trying to take off. Full coverage live on sky!”
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    There will have to be security at all Mps surgeries

    Wasn't this at a church
    Its still his surgery!!!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    I think you’d have to be mad to want to be an MP. What an awful job.

    Who would want to be anyone in the public eye these days? The public are animals.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    MattW said:

    Jonathan said:

    MattW said:

    Just reading the comments on 'Imagine' in astonishment. I can't believe people taking umbrage at the lyrics. Lennon was a bit of an old hippy writing about a dream, as old hippies are wont to do. Great song, cheesy but harmless lyrics.

    It wasn't meant to be a political manifesto - he didn't employ Corbyn to write the lyrics. It's just a song, ffs.

    Before we know it, people will be telling me that there isn't really a Stairway to Heaven, that Led Zeppelin were making it up.

    Golden rule, acquiring wealth is deeply virtuous if you're a righty, deeply sinful if you're a lefty.
    There seem to be an awful lot of lefties who seem strangely tolerant of being deeply sinful whilst claiming that they are working class.
    That's comment always says more about the people making it. There's a certain type of right wing voter that can never accept that left wing or working people can be more successful than them.
    And that's a straw man :smile:

    It's a problem.

    Just the same as people arguing "sanctity of marriage" shouters who turn out to be having multiple affairs.

    The old point that not living up to your own expressed values undermines your case.
    What, so a core value of 'authentic left' is to be poor and monogamous?
  • Hope Sir David Amess is alright.

    Yes, indeed. Hope Amess makes a speedy recovery!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,108
    dixiedean said:

    Seems Texas has found insisting on a "non-political" curriculum isn’t easy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/14/texas-school-holocaust-books-race-southlake

    Consistency in the application of their proclaimed principles seems to be a Texas Republican problem.
    https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/620367/
    ...Texas state Senator Bryan Hughes said in July that he was aggrieved by educators teaching “the inverse of what Dr. King taught us.” But this same legislator proposed a bill weeks earlier that would have removed King’s “I Have a Dream” speech and “Letter From Birmingham Jail” from the Texas state curriculum...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Most Conservatives see more to their philosophy than simply reducing barriers to the free movement of people, capital, and goods, which is why most Conservatives support Brexit.

    Nobody who supports Brexit is a Conservative
    Lower case c, Scott. Conservatives can be anything they want, including very un-conservative, as parties the world over do not match their name. Plenty of Liberal parties who are conservative.

    But is an area where I get confused by the arguments. Some say Brexit was a very unconservative thing to do, others claim it was driven by conservative yearning for a 1950s heydey so was a very conservative thing.

    Sometimes they claim both.
    It's a version of the No True Scotsman fallacy. The only reliable indicator of a Conservative is whether they usually vote Conservative.
    Except in Scottish council by elections.
    I understand the local elections are suspended in Scotland now due to the May 2022 local elections
    There was one yesterday..
    Indeed, which the SNP won. Have been busy in the shed this am so haven't been able to work out if it is a replacement of a first on the list or a lower one, to make sense of the relative changes.

    In other Scottish news, I see a Scottish party leader has joined the SNP and, IIRC, DavidL in complaining about the Boundary Commission changes:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19646958.douglas-ross-unhappy-westminster-plans-carve-up-moray-constituency/?ref=ar
    I wasn't really complaining. I just thought that it was odd that Scone was becoming a part of Angus despite being in deepest Perthshire and Arbroath was becoming a part of Dundee East despite having a lot more in common with the lands to the north of it than Dundee.

    I also said, in fairness, that I did not envy their task.
    Thanks for the amendment!
  • I think you’d have to be mad to want to be an MP. What an awful job.

    Who would want to be anyone in the public eye these days? The public are animals.
    Bugger, lucky you not being a member of the public, some of us are stuck with it.
  • kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Jonathan said:

    MattW said:

    Just reading the comments on 'Imagine' in astonishment. I can't believe people taking umbrage at the lyrics. Lennon was a bit of an old hippy writing about a dream, as old hippies are wont to do. Great song, cheesy but harmless lyrics.

    It wasn't meant to be a political manifesto - he didn't employ Corbyn to write the lyrics. It's just a song, ffs.

    Before we know it, people will be telling me that there isn't really a Stairway to Heaven, that Led Zeppelin were making it up.

    Golden rule, acquiring wealth is deeply virtuous if you're a righty, deeply sinful if you're a lefty.
    There seem to be an awful lot of lefties who seem strangely tolerant of being deeply sinful whilst claiming that they are working class.
    That's comment always says more about the people making it. There's a certain type of right wing voter that can never accept that left wing or working people can be more successful than them.
    And that's a straw man :smile:

    It's a problem.

    Just the same as people arguing "sanctity of marriage" shouters who turn out to be having multiple affairs.

    The old point that not living up to your own expressed values undermines your case.
    What, so a core value of 'authentic left' is to be poor and monogamous?
    Nah, then they would be lazy benefit scroungers. Best not to exist really, and if you must, then keep very very quiet.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just reading the comments on 'Imagine' in astonishment. I can't believe people taking umbrage at the lyrics. Lennon was a bit of an old hippy writing about a dream, as old hippies are wont to do. Great song, cheesy but harmless lyrics.

    It wasn't meant to be a political manifesto - he didn't employ Corbyn to write the lyrics. It's just a song, ffs.

    Before we know it, people will be telling me that there isn't really a Stairway to Heaven, that Led Zeppelin were making it up.

    Bit like those people who rush to point out that Bryan Adams was only nine in the summer of 1969.
    I always took that as evidence that the song wasn't referring to the year.
    I think Adams himself somewhat admitted to the smutty interpretation. That saddened me in a way. I'd always felt that having it as the year 1969 was to imbue it with a 'Withnail and I', end-of-an-era poignancy.

    They're selling hippie wigs in Woolworth's, man. The greatest decade in the history of mankind is over.
    He has admitted the song is about the first year he had wild sex, including that (overrated) sexual position

    Relatedly, Stairway to Heaven is, in part, about puberty and orgasm

    ‘If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now
    It's just a spring clean for the May queen’
    See, now by slipping in "overrated" you're obviously trying to start a detailed discussion on here about sexual positions - which would be highly inappropriate and would attract the wrong sort to the site.

    This is why I call you 'fruity leon' and why you need to be watched.
    It is overrated tho. Really hard to get right, and even when you do, not worth the hype. Like ice skating, or roasting your own coffee beans
    I agree about ice skating. Can't comment on the other - I've never roasted my own beans. Not planning to either tbh.
  • I think you’d have to be mad to want to be an MP. What an awful job.

    Who would want to be anyone in the public eye these days? The public are animals.
    I think you are just being racist, tarring all members of the public with the same brush like that!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir David Amess MP stabbed multiple times at his surgery - Sky

    Hope he makes a full recovery.

    Horrible news, I attended an interesting webinar a few months ago where he discussed his new book and long career.

    I hope they catch the culprit and he makes a full recovery.

    The assailant was probably high on 'cake'.
    Was that Amess?
    Do you think it is right to joke about this, and you a doctor
    Cool your outrage jets, Foxy was asking a question not making a joke.
    Both throttles are permanently at stage 5 AB.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,198

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just reading the comments on 'Imagine' in astonishment. I can't believe people taking umbrage at the lyrics. Lennon was a bit of an old hippy writing about a dream, as old hippies are wont to do. Great song, cheesy but harmless lyrics.

    It wasn't meant to be a political manifesto - he didn't employ Corbyn to write the lyrics. It's just a song, ffs.

    Before we know it, people will be telling me that there isn't really a Stairway to Heaven, that Led Zeppelin were making it up.

    You're astonished that right wingers don't like the dream of a left wing hippy? Really?
    Sense it's not a critique of the lyrics more of a rich rock star's "hypocrisy" in writing them.

    He ought to have been crafting a haunting ballad about the Laffer curve.
    I was the one who brought it up, and I was criticising the lyrics.

    Whether he's hypocritical or not, that 'dream' is a nightmare.
    Ah, just an honest PB debating style disagreement with the political sentiment then.

    Not all of it, though, surely. No wars, no hunger, and - big for you, this, I think - "no religion too". All building to the crescendo of the overall message, imagine all the people living life in PEACE, you oo oo oo oo ...

    If this is a "nightmare" for you you're a rum sort and no mistake.

    I like the vision but not the song. Not even my new Lennon style photochromics - which really do suit me! - make me want to seek it out for a listen.
    Nothing should be described as "building to a crescendo"

    The crescendo IS the building up.

    It gets used incorrectly more often than not, so it's probably changed in some dictionaries.
    Yes, "leading to" is what I wanted there. I'm posting quickfire today though. That's my defence.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Angela Rayner issues statement hoping for his full recovery

    She’s got to resign after this.

    “Dear scum. Hope the holes my shock troops put in you heal quickly.” It’s clear now she’s a Nazi.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,108
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just reading the comments on 'Imagine' in astonishment. I can't believe people taking umbrage at the lyrics. Lennon was a bit of an old hippy writing about a dream, as old hippies are wont to do. Great song, cheesy but harmless lyrics.

    It wasn't meant to be a political manifesto - he didn't employ Corbyn to write the lyrics. It's just a song, ffs.

    Before we know it, people will be telling me that there isn't really a Stairway to Heaven, that Led Zeppelin were making it up.

    Bit like those people who rush to point out that Bryan Adams was only nine in the summer of 1969.
    I always took that as evidence that the song wasn't referring to the year.
    I think Adams himself somewhat admitted to the smutty interpretation. That saddened me in a way. I'd always felt that having it as the year 1969 was to imbue it with a 'Withnail and I', end-of-an-era poignancy.

    They're selling hippie wigs in Woolworth's, man. The greatest decade in the history of mankind is over.
    He has admitted the song is about the first year he had wild sex, including that (overrated) sexual position

    Relatedly, Stairway to Heaven is, in part, about puberty and orgasm

    ‘If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now
    It's just a spring clean for the May queen’
    See, now by slipping in "overrated" you're obviously trying to start a detailed discussion on here about sexual positions - which would be highly inappropriate and would attract the wrong sort to the site.

    This is why I call you 'fruity leon' and why you need to be watched.
    It is overrated tho. Really hard to get right, and even when you do, not worth the hype. Like ice skating, or roasting your own coffee beans
    I agree about ice skating. Can't comment on the other - I've never roasted my own beans. Not planning to either tbh.
    At least you can pay someone else to roast your beans...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,697
    ping said:

    dixiedean said:

    There will have to be security at all Mps surgeries

    Wasn't this at a church
    A surgery in a church.
    It’s been 2 hours and he’s still in the church. It’s either very good news or very bad news.
    I would have thought that if it was minor, just needing a few stitches then he would be having a 4 hour wait in ED.

    That he hasn't been transported would suggest major injuries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,580

    Sir David Amess MP stabbed multiple times at his surgery - Sky

    Hope he makes a full recovery.

    So Angela, is it OK to stab scum?
    O-to scoring political point 5.7 secs. Not bad.
    I wouldn't expect you to see a difference between point scoring and making.

    If you label an entire political party as scum, you have to take some responsibility when some people see them as detached from upholding the right to express a contrary opinion to their own.

    Angela Rayner's comment corroded democracy. Even more disgraceful when it was a cynical ploy for her personal ambition - to get above Starmer on the news cycle at the start of Conference.

    If a Tory had called Labour "scum" a week before Jo Cox was murdered, do you think there would have been a restrained silence to link the two?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    New thread.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,591
    ping said:

    Sky reporting the Air Ambulance paramedics are still treating him before taking him to hospital and it highlights how serious this incident is

    They are now live above the scene

    “There’s an air ambulance right below us, trying to take off. Full coverage live on sky!”
    Our helicopter is doing the best job of getting in the way of the life-saving helicopter, tune in for more coverage from our helicopter….
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited October 2021

    Sir David Amess MP stabbed multiple times at his surgery - Sky

    Hope he makes a full recovery.

    So Angela, is it OK to stab scum?
    O-to scoring political point 5.7 secs. Not bad.
    I wouldn't expect you to see a difference between point scoring and making.

    If you label an entire political party as scum, you have to take some responsibility when some people see them as detached from upholding the right to express a contrary opinion to their own.

    Angela Rayner's comment corroded democracy. Even more disgraceful when it was a cynical ploy for her personal ambition - to get above Starmer on the news cycle at the start of Conference.

    If a Tory had called Labour "scum" a week before Jo Cox was murdered, do you think there would have been a restrained silence to link the two?
    Exactly. Perfectly put. Jo Cox labelled scum two weeks before dying in her own blood in writhing pain like Sir David. That’s why what Rayner done was so wrong, so dumb, so unparliamentary and not fit for her position. For personal ambition she stoked it up Trump style. And this is the horrific result of her mendacious stupidity.

    Rayner to resign now!!!

    Are you listening Starmer, you weak coward?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,384

    Sir David Amess MP stabbed multiple times at his surgery - Sky

    Hope he makes a full recovery.

    So Angela, is it OK to stab scum?
    O-to scoring political point 5.7 secs. Not bad.
    I wouldn't expect you to see a difference between point scoring and making.

    If you label an entire political party as scum, you have to take some responsibility when some people see them as detached from upholding the right to express a contrary opinion to their own.

    Angela Rayner's comment corroded democracy. Even more disgraceful when it was a cynical ploy for her personal ambition - to get above Starmer on the news cycle at the start of Conference.

    If a Tory had called Labour "scum" a week before Jo Cox was murdered, do you think there would have been a restrained silence to link the two?
    People quite rightly made a connection between political violence and the high temperature of the Brexit debate - "Enemies of the People", etc.

    Politicians have a responsibility not to deepen divisions and inflame anger.

    That includes Angela Rayner.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,854
    https://ballotbox.scot/falkirk-south-by-election-2021

    Just checked the Falkirk data.

    In Scottish local gmt multi-member wards it's hard to compare a by election result with the previous couincil election if the the councillor wasn't the first elected on the previous occasion.

    The Labour councillor who left was the third to be elected in 2017. At Ballotbox Scotland Allan Faulds had calculated the result to be expected today using the 2017 data but warned that it was likely the Tories might do a little better on a lower turnout - got it almost exactly right. So not much change there.
This discussion has been closed.