NEW: Former Government minister and Conservative MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire, who had been suffering with lung cancer, has died aged 53, his family has said in a statement.
NEW: Former Government minister and Conservative MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire, who had been suffering with lung cancer, has died aged 53, his family has said in a statement.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
One undercommented upon trend is that of AB women.
I can think of four female professional graduates who are friends of mine and were Conservatives under Blair (when in opposition) and rapidly moved to the Left following Cameron's victory in 2010. Austerity and Brexit turned them off and they became increasingly and volubly Woke.
This hasn't happened at all to male professional graduates who are friends of mine, who have stayed Conservative, where the only change I can detect is in dealing with the seriousness of climate change.
The Guido page on James Brokenshire appears to be down. Perhaps there is hope?
Tragically, I suspect it's true and someone just told Guido it was in very poor taste and he should wait for a public announcement and not try and scoop it.
Ah. OK. Makes sense. Does seem more than a little crass to break the story on a Westminster gossip site.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
@Casino_Royale - Oh and I'm not too hot on political correctness either. I could be described as coming from the Jeremy Clarkson wing of the LDs, so I may have commented on your 'woke' obsession a few times as I just don't see it. Is that something you remember of my posts.
NEW: Former Government minister and Conservative MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire, who had been suffering with lung cancer, has died aged 53, his family has said in a statement.
I think it is 1 in 6 lung cancer victims have never smoked.
One of the dangers of public campaigns about things that are linked to increased risk of cancer is that we forget that very often its just bad luck. You can be as fit and healthy as you like, never smoke or drink, eat only healthy food and still die of cancer.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
@Casino_Royale - Oh and I'm not too hot on political correctness either. I could be described as coming from the Jeremy Clarkson wing of the LDs, so I may have commented on your 'woke' obsession a few times as I just don't see it. Is that something you remember of my posts.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
NEW: Former Government minister and Conservative MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire, who had been suffering with lung cancer, has died aged 53, his family has said in a statement.
I think it is 1 in 6 lung cancer victims have never smoked.
One of the dangers of public campaigns about things that are linked to increased risk of cancer is that we forget that very often its just bad luck. You can be as fit and healthy as you like, never smoke or drink, eat only healthy food and still die of cancer.
Yep. Lung cancer has a bad press because of the association with smoking, but it's as worthy of scientific research as any other form of the disease. And in any case, smoking increases the risk of other cancers too.
Sending my deepest condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of James Brokenshire.
He has been taken far too young, a real tragedy. James was unfailingly professional and kind and it was clear that he cared deeply about his work and public service. Rest in peace James.
So many political certainties have been overturned, not just in my lifetime, but even in the past decade.
In 2010, few people would have dreamed that Kensington, Chingford, Epsom & Ewell would be marginal seats; that Canterbury, Enfield Southgate, Putney, Battersea, Reading East, would all be held by Labour when the Conservatives won a landslide. That Blyth Valley, Burnley, Durham NW, Leigh, Heywood & Middleton would go Conservative. That Stoke South, Warwickshire North, NW Leics would all be rock solid seats for the Tories. That a working class voter in Stoke would be more likely to be a Conservative than a banker in Central London.
Things come fast.
I find myself in a lonely spot.
Socially, I have a very little in common with some of the most reliably Conservative voters now. However, politically, I have very little in common with the views of the professional class, where most of my network now sits.
It's like everything I thought I knew has rotated about its base all around me, and it's rather disorientating.
Me too. In my world (40s, urban, middle class) anyone you talk to blandly assumes you are politically somewhere between Kier Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn. 'Out' Tories are almost non-existent. Not that I have a great deal in common with the Conservative Party, these days, either.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
Asians out earn white people in Canada, the US and the UK. Of course the identity politics type respond to this by saying that's an average and hides the struggles many individual Asians face. Which is correct, but they never stop to think that might apply to white people too.
Sending my deepest condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of James Brokenshire.
He has been taken far too young, a real tragedy. James was unfailingly professional and kind and it was clear that he cared deeply about his work and public service. Rest in peace James.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
A 1% increase in migration is associated with an 0.86% improvement in productivity in the short term, and an estimated 1.6% improvement in the medium to long term.
It is increasingly clear the wages in the U.K. have stagnated not because of immigration, but because of the global factors @rcs1000 cited last night, plus the sudden bust in financial services after the GFC and the decline in the U.K. oil industry.
Indeed, immigration looks to have prevented even worse wage performance.
The UK has had a very flexible labour market, now moving to a less flexible one. Previous flexibility was supported by a large immigrant pool on tap, but the productivity question is driven by whether flexibility is good or bad, not whether these are immigrants or not.
Does a flexible labour market result in greater or smaller productivity? There are two factors in tension with each other:
(a) Labour flexibility means people can work efficiently on things they are good at and bring others in as required. Greater productivity.
(b) Labour flexibility means employers can find substitutes for existing staff instead of using them efficiently and training them up. Less productivity.
Based on the article it looks like there's a bit more of (a) than (b). So productivity will on average reduce by going to a less flexible labour market model. But it's the unskilled that mostly suffer from (b).
Put it another way there's some levelling up, but more levelling down.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
These are not consistent with YouGov's headline intention numbers
I think the theory is that the subsidiaries tend to be leading indicators. For most of us, it's quite a big thing to change our voting identity, it's easier to express doubts about some of the details.
But yes, if the Conservatives lose their reputation for managing money well and keeping taxes low, that's a problem for them.
(And note, this isn't about rights and wrongs of policy, or Johnson and Sunak's bad luck at being in the big chairs when the problems stored up for over a decade finally blew up. This is about reputation and perception, and they're not entirely rational. As Boris knows very well.)
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
I would very much agree with that, mainly because on the libertarian areas where I would be considered to the right of most people you are there also and on the more mainstream areas I agree I am to the left of you. It is interesting that we agree on so much yet so strongly disagree on other stuff. I of course think you are completely bonkers in your views on the EU and FPTP and are far too generous in your acceptance of some of what I would consider cockup or dishonesty by the current government. But then you probably think the same about me.
I think we both think stuff should be shaken up badly. Some of the financial stuff you posted recently, although I agree with in principle, was far to radical for me in the short term, re the effect on the economy, however the stuff I would like to do re the constitution would scare the willies out of most people.
We need a good thread on atheism or the universal wage to do a pincer movement on the dissenters.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
If you accept that there is an argument against unlimited immigration (I'm not sure that you personally do accept this) then why does it matter who makes it? Those with the most to lose from immigration are often the most recently settled wave of immigrants - those without much in the way of assets and who are dependent on selling their labour, the value of which is driven down by the arrival of a new source of labour.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
So you're openly judging her differently because she is of a different ethnicity and a daughter of migrants?
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Thanks Carlotta, much appreciated. I assume the jab gets recorded and added to your GP's records?
I have never given an NHS number when getting a supermarket/chemists flu jab. Not sure how they would get added to GP records without that.
Name address and dob are enough to find it in the database.
While the Boots form asks for NHS number and GP, I'm in the process of moving GP and they said "just tell your new GP you've had it".
Very efficient process - and as has been pointed out upthread, free for over 50s (and £14.99 for under-50s).
Hold on a minute, weren't the blue tick wankers all saying that we'd have a shortage of flu jabs this year because of Brexit and no HGV drivers?! I'm sure I read that it wouldn't be possible to get one and people over 60 would have to go without over the winter.
Is there anything they've got right?!
Boots told me just yesterday that there are current shortages of the jab, affecting appointment numbers, for just that reason
And yet anyone is eligible to book? Feels more like a BP style PR campaign to get cheap workers back.
She told me in a private conversation while the needle was being stuck into my arm, so I'd suggest that is wilful projection on your part.
And yet Boots are still keeping bookings open for the whole country? These two things are mutually exclusive. If they had shortages eligibility would be restricted significantly. So the reality is somewhat different to what a local jabber has told you.
My GP has cancelled several flu sessions as no delivery. Not sure where the logistic supply problem lay. I thought lack of vials rather than HGV.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
So you're openly judging her differently because she is of a different ethnicity and a daughter of migrants?
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Poor taste. That may well be the case but today is neither the time nor the place to discuss the political implications of a by election.
Today should be a day to show condolences to his family and reflect on his life.
Thinking about any by election can wait
It’s just politics. Everyone knows how the game is played. I genuinely don’t think it’s offensive/poor taste to the individual/family to discuss the political implications of an MP dying.
So long as people are respectful of the individual, discussion shouldn’t be stifled. Especially on a blog like this. The whole point of PB is discuss/argue about political implications of events and attempt to predict the outcomes of elections. Twitter is a bit different, but I still don’t see the problem with TND’s tweet.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
So you're openly judging her differently because she is of a different ethnicity and a daughter of migrants?
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
I don't see that ethnicity comes into it. If she had white Polish immigrant parents then Roger could make the same point.
Aside: But I'm willing to accept that racism is a reason that some attack Patel; for me, she's no more objectionable on immigration than May was as Home Secretary (which is to say that I find both quite unpleasant)
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
I'm more libertarian than PT, too. Well, well. Though rather more to the left. My views seem to have changed even more as I grow still older.
Our latest results from the #COVID19 Infection Survey show increasing infection rates in England, uncertainty in Wales and decreases in both Northern Ireland and Scotland in the week ending 2 October 2021
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
So you're openly judging her differently because she is of a different ethnicity and a daughter of migrants?
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
I don't see that ethnicity comes into it. If she had white Polish immigrant parents then Roger could make the same point.
Aside: But I'm willing to accept that racism is a reason that some attack Patel; for me, she's no more objectionable on immigration than May was as Home Secretary (which is to say that I find both quite unpleasant)
I think Patel’s worse because she drives clear pleasure from her zealotry, and she’s also as thick as two short planks.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
I'm more libertarian than PT, too. Well, well. Though rather more to the left. My views seem to have changed even more as I grow still older.
I’ve moved leftward (though not perhaps more liberal) as I’ve aged.
I think this is because leftish-liberals are centrists who got mugged by the economy.
Also, I consider myself well to the right of Corbyn et al, so god knows what his results would be.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
It is of course a US-based scale, so the centre might bea bit different - I'm quite happy to accept that I'm a raving loony lefty by US standards
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
A 1% increase in migration is associated with an 0.86% improvement in productivity in the short term, and an estimated 1.6% improvement in the medium to long term.
It is increasingly clear the wages in the U.K. have stagnated not because of immigration, but because of the global factors @rcs1000 cited last night, plus the sudden bust in financial services after the GFC and the decline in the U.K. oil industry.
Indeed, immigration looks to have prevented even worse wage performance.
😄😄😄
It's laughable that you still believe this crap.
It’s laughable to me that you’re not interested in research.
Well not laughable, I find it a bit pathetic to be honest.
It's someone's opinion based on a pre-determined conclusion. It's the same as all of those government COVID models that start with the conclusion of lockdown being the solution so let's fit the evidence to get a lockdown.
They want immigration to be a net positive so they've fit the evidence to that conclusion. Economics isn't a science, it's people's opinions masquerading as such.
Its a social science, but we're overly reliant upon assumption and models. As with anything using assumptions and models, it ends up a case of Garbage In, Garbage Out.
For virtually any position on anything it is possible to find an economist to argue on behalf of that position. It is equally possible to find an economist to argue against that position. Both will have models and evidence to support them, neither is lying, but both have chosen their own assumptions and those assumption will shape the output.
Anyone who thinks they're right because they've seen an economic model that agrees with them . . . doesn't understand economics at all.
If you can find some counter analysis, I’d be glad to see it. Or, if you can find flaws in the paper I posted that would also be interesting.
From skim-reading it [its 50 pages so not read it all] the analysis has been underpinned by finding a correlation between increased immigration and increased productivity. As any fule kno though correlation != causation.
Its entirely possible [indeed quite logical] that immigrants are attracted to increased productivity areas because that's where more jobs are available, rather than causing the increased productivity. Indeed its possible and undemonstrated either way that the increased productivity areas could have been even more productive if they weren't deflated by more minimum wage jobs.
Simply finding a correlation isn't proof of anything in economics.
A shift-share analysis attempts to attribute the evolution of economic measures to conditions. It's not a simple correlation and the fact that in the abstract they talk of short run and log-term impacts ought to have been enough for you to have paused and thought again before posting the above.
I did think about it but without getting into long-winded details no that doesn't deal with the correlation/causation issue.
Furthermore there is another fundamental flaw in the analysis, in the way its being applied by GW, in that it is making an essentially racist "they all look the same" division of people as being British-born or migrants. Treating all migrants as fungible.
In any other walk of life if you were to say "they're all the same" you'd be considered a racist and while I am not accusing the authors of this article of being racist, this falls into the first pitfall I made - assumptions. By assuming all migrants are fungible in this analysis in order to do the analysis, you've assumed away the differences between people.
Its entirely possible and logical that some migrants boost our productivity (high skilled migrants) while some migrants deflate our productivity (low skilled minimum wage, claiming UC and housing benefit migrants). If the high-skilled migrants boost productivity by more than the low-skilled ones deflate it, then overall in the analysis absolutely migration will rightly correlate with higher productivity.
However if we replace free movement that keeps the high skilled migrants coming, but rejects the low-skilled ones, then we can get the best of both worlds potentially. Gain the boost from high skilled ones, do not take the deflation from the low skilled ones. Win/win. That's hypothetical and unproven - but also untested in this analysis.
Which brings us back full circle to my first post. You can prove anything you want in economics - if you choose assumptions and models that suit your agenda.
Just booked Covid booster shots for self & wife. I've had a text suggesting I did so; she hasn't (both us 80+). GP Surgery has 'no idea' when/where vaccine available, so I've go on-line and booked. 15 or so minutes drive away.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
So you're openly judging her differently because she is of a different ethnicity and a daughter of migrants?
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
I don't see that ethnicity comes into it. If she had white Polish immigrant parents then Roger could make the same point.
Aside: But I'm willing to accept that racism is a reason that some attack Patel; for me, she's no more objectionable on immigration than May was as Home Secretary (which is to say that I find both quite unpleasant)
On the Polish issue - if Roger judged someone differently because their parents are Polish than he'd judge someone whose parents are English then yes that is also racism.
To me May was much worse. She was behind the hostile environment, she sent vans into minority areas telling people to GO HOME. She is repugnant.
Patel has ended freedom of movement with other white European countries, May also wanted to do as PM, but what else has she done?
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So I'm a left wing libertarian. Not exactly how I see myself. I would say centre on the left right axis, and while I generally see myself as liberal, I am quite strong on personal responsibility and respect for institutions.
A 1% increase in migration is associated with an 0.86% improvement in productivity in the short term, and an estimated 1.6% improvement in the medium to long term.
It is increasingly clear the wages in the U.K. have stagnated not because of immigration, but because of the global factors @rcs1000 cited last night, plus the sudden bust in financial services after the GFC and the decline in the U.K. oil industry.
Indeed, immigration looks to have prevented even worse wage performance.
😄😄😄
It's laughable that you still believe this crap.
It’s laughable to me that you’re not interested in research.
Well not laughable, I find it a bit pathetic to be honest.
It's someone's opinion based on a pre-determined conclusion. It's the same as all of those government COVID models that start with the conclusion of lockdown being the solution so let's fit the evidence to get a lockdown.
They want immigration to be a net positive so they've fit the evidence to that conclusion. Economics isn't a science, it's people's opinions masquerading as such.
Lockdown was the solution. At least until vaccines came along…
No doubt, yet the modellers kept pushing it even after vaccines. The evidence on immigration has changed and yet we still see the same garbage "research" peddling the same broken narrative that unlimited immigration is always positive.
although not quite the bargain the £1000 Porsche was when back in the early 2000's a girlfriend found her boyfriend was doing the dirty but the car was in her name for "reasons".
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
I'm more libertarian than PT, too. Well, well. Though rather more to the left. My views seem to have changed even more as I grow still older.
I seem to have shifted slightly leftward since I did the test previously, and slightly more libertarian.
Your Political Compass Economic Left/Right: -1.25 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.64
His death means another by-election, in his Blue Wall seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup seat. He had a majority of 18,952. Labour is the nearest threat with the Libs non-existent, but it will still be seen as a key test and referendum on Johnsonism.
Poor taste. That may well be the case but today is neither the time nor the place to discuss the political implications of a by election.
Today should be a day to show condolences to his family and reflect on his life.
Thinking about any by election can wait
It’s just politics. Everyone knows how the game is played. I genuinely don’t think it’s offensive/poor taste to the individual/family to discuss the political implications of an MP dying.
So long as people are respectful of the individual, discussion shouldn’t be stifled. Especially on a blog like this. The whole point of PB is discuss/argue about political implications of events and attempt to predict the outcomes of elections. Twitter is a bit different, but I still don’t see the problem with TND’s tweet.
You can log off if you want.
It can at least wait a day or until after the funeral.
In any case he had a huge majority of 44% and got 64% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup at the last general election and Bexley was 63% Leave so it will obviously be a fairly easy Tory hold anyway
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
I'm more libertarian than PT, too. Well, well. Though rather more to the left. My views seem to have changed even more as I grow still older.
I'm sure you (and I) are about to hit the 'I'm old enough to be a Unionist now' wall any day. Signs may include the name 'Nippy' creeping into conversation, deliberately picking out the UJ emblazoned foodstuffs at Morrisons and humming the R4 UK theme under one's breath.
Interesting seeing the Compass results coming in. A lot of left-libertarians so far.
Twenty years ago when I first took this I was more in the bottom-right corner than I am now, something like 7, -7 from memory. So I've gone more to the centre as I've gotten older.
Very much most people believe the answer to any problem is “the government should force people to…”.
If only there was a party who would articulate that view.
Even the most libertarian party turns more authoritarian in government.
Just as backers of PR support FPTP once it looks like they'll win.
Has Trudeau said anything on the subject since the election? Of course, IIRC, the problem there is one gets massive Con majorities piling up in Cowboy/Oilman areas.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
Asians out earn white people in Canada, the US and the UK. Of course the identity politics type respond to this by saying that's an average and hides the struggles many individual Asians face. Which is correct, but they never stop to think that might apply to white people too.
Isn't really an income thing. More a Social Conservatism one.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
Asians out earn white people in Canada, the US and the UK. Of course the identity politics type respond to this by saying that's an average and hides the struggles many individual Asians face. Which is correct, but they never stop to think that might apply to white people too.
Asia's a big place.
It's really noticeable in the data that Chinese and Indians outearn white people, but Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are some of the worst performing ethnic groups.
It's more or less predictable from their educational qualifications.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
I'm more libertarian than PT, too. Well, well. Though rather more to the left. My views seem to have changed even more as I grow still older.
I'm sure you (and I) are about to hit the 'I'm old enough to be a Unionist now' wall any day. Signs may include the name 'Nippy' creeping into conversation, deliberately picking out the UJ emblazoned foodstuffs at Morrisons and humming the R4 UK theme under one's breath.
The old World Service one would have been more appropriate.
although not quite the bargain the £1000 Porsche was when back in the early 2000's a girlfriend found her boyfriend was doing the dirty but the car was in her name for "reasons".
Lol, better not show my partner this, she's been hankering after one for a while. I'll just tell her it would be bad karma (aside from the bad karma of cluttering up the roads of the Highlands and Islands).
Very happy to now start the process of negotiation for a Treaty between UK and EU in relation to Gibraltar to be based on the New Years Eve Agreement between us and Spain. I am optimistic that with good faith and hard work can deliver fluidity and shared prosperity.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
Asians out earn white people in Canada, the US and the UK. Of course the identity politics type respond to this by saying that's an average and hides the struggles many individual Asians face. Which is correct, but they never stop to think that might apply to white people too.
Asia's a big place.
It's really noticeable in the data that Chinese and Indians outearn white people, but Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are some of the worst performing ethnic groups.
It's more or less predictable from their educational qualifications.
It’s all class, innit?
The Bangladeshi migrants tended to be from a very poor region (ie Sylhet).
Interesting seeing the Compass results coming in. A lot of left-libertarians so far.
Twenty years ago when I first took this I was more in the bottom-right corner than I am now, something like 7, -7 from memory. So I've gone more to the centre as I've gotten older.
I think the lefties on here tend to be. We need Justin to balance the scales!!
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
If you accept that there is an argument against unlimited immigration (I'm not sure that you personally do accept this) then why does it matter who makes it? Those with the most to lose from immigration are often the most recently settled wave of immigrants - those without much in the way of assets and who are dependent on selling their labour, the value of which is driven down by the arrival of a new source of labour.
I would say the government policy makes sense if you think immigration is bad, at least at previous levels. But the argument that limiting immigration improves productivity - to allow wages to increase in real terms - isn't backed by the evidence. Probably the opposite. And shortages are just bad. You just can't spin this*
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
It proves how well-integrated they are.
One fascinating feature of the next 20-30 years will be viewing how the politics of an increasingly racially mixed society evolves.
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
This has been very much Canada. Many recent immigrants, particularly Asian ones, are strongly Conservative.
Asians out earn white people in Canada, the US and the UK. Of course the identity politics type respond to this by saying that's an average and hides the struggles many individual Asians face. Which is correct, but they never stop to think that might apply to white people too.
Asia's a big place.
It's really noticeable in the data that Chinese and Indians outearn white people, but Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are some of the worst performing ethnic groups.
It's more or less predictable from their educational qualifications.
It’s all class, innit?
The Bangladeshi migrants tended to be from a very poor region (ie Sylhet).
I don't think it's all or even mostly class. Indian and Chinese cultures really value education.
The four Lib Dem holds yesterday suggest the Cons may be in more trouble than the columnists think. Huge majorities in two, especially when they were last fought what 2019 when the Cons were low and the Lib Dems high. The sad death of James Brokenshaw may open up another opportunity for them in a by election, say mid November. Looks like a mountain to climb but suspect they will establish themselves in second place by the last week of the campaign.
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
@Casino_Royale from last thread. Killing off the general discussion but on a separate note you seemed surprised that I thought I might be to the right of you on some things and asked for examples. Clearly it is difficult to give specifics without an in depth discussion but in general I get the impression you are a traditional Conservative, more along the lines of @HYUFD although not as traditional as him, whereas I am more along the lines of an Orange Booker. Although I have some humdinger arguments with @Philip_Thompson on many things my views are often in line with him, although maybe not quite as libertarian as him, I am very libertarian.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Thanks. So, you're very free-market then I presume?
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Yep very free market and small state. Like Philip I would like to see a Universal Wage. I was a fan of this from the 90s when I first heard it put forward by a right wing think tank. That could eliminate most of the DWP and much of HMRC. Not a fan of BEIS either. Far to much interference in the marketplace. I would like to see more generic laws and much less specific laws on issues. I hate the government faffing around an issue with interference. If something should be run by the state (eg health and education) then do so, otherwise leave it to the market, with generic laws to protect the consumer from abuse.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
Thanks. Interesting.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Oh that is very interesting. I have no idea what you are referring to re social issues and institutions. What did you have in mind? I am not a fan of institutions generally and I think you are, but I would be surprised if we differed much on social issues. Can you elaborate please? This is very interesting.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
I think that you and I can be quite similar in a lot of ways, though I'd put you down as slightly to the left of me.
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are: Economic Left/Right: 4.0 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
So I'm a left wing libertarian. Not exactly how I see myself. I would say centre on the left right axis, and while I generally see myself as liberal, I am quite strong on personal responsibility and respect for institutions.
Looks like I’ve moved even more left-libertarian than last time I did this as I’m now Economic Left/Right: -9.25 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.05 Although if they’d put in a few questions about responses to the pandemic such as vaccine mandates I bet my authoritarian score would have gone up!
Fundamentally I want a Fully Automatic Luxury Gay Space Communism like Iain Banks’ Culture.
The old World Service one would have been more appropriate.
Lillibullero? It would certainly remind me of adolescence and interspersing Luxembourg with the World Service into the wee small hours. I guess I did feel fairly neutral about the Union then.
A 1% increase in migration is associated with an 0.86% improvement in productivity in the short term, and an estimated 1.6% improvement in the medium to long term.
It is increasingly clear the wages in the U.K. have stagnated not because of immigration, but because of the global factors @rcs1000 cited last night, plus the sudden bust in financial services after the GFC and the decline in the U.K. oil industry.
Indeed, immigration looks to have prevented even worse wage performance.
😄😄😄
It's laughable that you still believe this crap.
It’s laughable to me that you’re not interested in research.
Well not laughable, I find it a bit pathetic to be honest.
It's someone's opinion based on a pre-determined conclusion. It's the same as all of those government COVID models that start with the conclusion of lockdown being the solution so let's fit the evidence to get a lockdown.
They want immigration to be a net positive so they've fit the evidence to that conclusion. Economics isn't a science, it's people's opinions masquerading as such.
Lockdown was the solution. At least until vaccines came along…
No doubt, yet the modellers kept pushing it even after vaccines. The evidence on immigration has changed and yet we still see the same garbage "research" peddling the same broken narrative that unlimited immigration is always positive.
The evidence on immigration hasn’t changed though, as far as I can see. Granted, Tory policy has changed.
As for unlimited immigration, the only person I know pushing this is @Richard_Tyndall.
Very much most people believe the answer to any problem is “the government should force people to…”.
If only there was a party who would articulate that view.
Even the most libertarian party turns more authoritarian in government.
Just as backers of PR support FPTP once it looks like they'll win.
Has Trudeau said anything on the subject since the election? Of course, IIRC, the problem there is one gets massive Con majorities piling up in Cowboy/Oilman areas.
Trudeau was hugely in favour of PR before 2015. Indeed it was one of his top 3 priorities for government. Since when he hasn't been. The Libs won a majority in 2015. And have since twice won most seats with fewer votes. What a remarkable coincidence!
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
If you accept that there is an argument against unlimited immigration (I'm not sure that you personally do accept this) then why does it matter who makes it? Those with the most to lose from immigration are often the most recently settled wave of immigrants - those without much in the way of assets and who are dependent on selling their labour, the value of which is driven down by the arrival of a new source of labour.
I would say the government policy makes sense if you think immigration is bad, at least at previous levels. But the argument that limiting immigration improves productivity - to allow wages to increase in real terms - isn't backed by the evidence. Probably the opposite. And shortages are just bad. You just can't spin this*
* Johnson is of course spinning this.
Of course you can spin shortages as being a good thing. Indeed I believe it.
Economics is ultimately all about the productive use of scarce resources. Shortages are a show of scarcity and allows even more productive use.
If resources weren't scarce, there'd never be any shortages, but nor would we have any need for economics.
Mid term polls bear no relation whatsoever to subsequent general election results.
Indeed. In April 2017 TMay's Tories had a 25% polling lead which was almost frittered away by polling day.
Lets hope and pray that history repeats itself. One of the most distasteful things I find with Tory politicians is that immigrants to this country and the sons and daughters of immigrants are viscerally anti immigration. It feeds the notion of the Tories being the nasty Party. I'm all right Jack is a very unpleasant look....
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
Are you judging Patel differently because of her ethnicity and background?
There's a word for that.
I am judging her as an anti immigrant Home Secretary who is the daughter of immigrants. My Great Grandparents arrived here at the turn of the last century and if I heard that they or their children fought tooth and claw to keep others from arriving I would be disgusted. But I'm not a Tory
If you accept that there is an argument against unlimited immigration (I'm not sure that you personally do accept this) then why does it matter who makes it? Those with the most to lose from immigration are often the most recently settled wave of immigrants - those without much in the way of assets and who are dependent on selling their labour, the value of which is driven down by the arrival of a new source of labour.
I would say the government policy makes sense if you think immigration is bad, at least at previous levels. But the argument that limiting immigration improves productivity - to allow wages to increase in real terms - isn't backed by the evidence. Probably the opposite. And shortages are just bad. You just can't spin this*
* Johnson is of course spinning this.
Of course you can spin shortages as being a good thing. Indeed I believe it.
Economics is ultimately all about the productive use of scarce resources. Shortages are a show of scarcity and allows even more productive use.
If resources weren't scarce, there'd never be any shortages, but nor would we have any need for economics.
Hey PT, the GDR is on the phone and want their economic policies back.
Comments
These are not consistent with YouGov's headline intention numbers
https://twitter.com/JBrokenshire/status/1446425338918080513?s=20
One very good thing I saw in the earlier days of being online was the website Political Compass, though it was rather US-dominated, that broke views down to left & right on the X-axis and on the Y-axis was libertarianism (down) and authoritarianism (up). I've always been firmly in the bottom-right quadrant, I'd guess you'd be similar but maybe marginally to the left?
Be curious if people wanted to take the test and see where their results are. I've just done it again and mine are:
Economic Left/Right: 4.0
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18
https://www.politicalcompass.org
I can think of four female professional graduates who are friends of mine and were Conservatives under Blair (when in opposition) and rapidly moved to the Left following Cameron's victory in 2010. Austerity and Brexit turned them off and they became increasingly and volubly Woke.
This hasn't happened at all to male professional graduates who are friends of mine, who have stayed Conservative, where the only change I can detect is in dealing with the seriousness of climate change.
Sending my deepest condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of James Brokenshire.
He has been taken far too young, a real tragedy. James was unfailingly professional and kind and it was clear that he cared deeply about his work and public service. Rest in peace James.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1446425437933129749?s=20
That should tell you all you need to know (badly)
Not that I have a great deal in common with the Conservative Party, these days, either.
The only issue where it became a problem was over section 28/IDS opposing the gayers adopting children.
I have a lot of gay friends who were genuinely upset but I explained I was advocating a very pro gay rights agenda inside the Tory party.
I mean a decade later a Tory PM introduced same sex marriage.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1446428962503147520?s=20
Does a flexible labour market result in greater or smaller productivity? There are two factors in tension with each other:
(a) Labour flexibility means people can work efficiently on things they are good at and bring others in as required. Greater productivity.
(b) Labour flexibility means employers can find substitutes for existing staff instead of using them efficiently and training them up. Less productivity.
Based on the article it looks like there's a bit more of (a) than (b). So productivity will on average reduce by going to a less flexible labour market model. But it's the unskilled that mostly suffer from (b).
Put it another way there's some levelling up, but more levelling down.
Very much most people believe the answer to any problem is “the government should force people to…”.
So, don't give me any more of your "I'm a libertarian" stuff, you authoritarian
I'm a lot more left on that scale than I expected. And maybe more libertarian. There were several questions here I would have chosen 'neither agree or disagree' had it been an option - if they were I'd maybe be more towards the centre on both scales.
Today should be a day to show condolences to his family and reflect on his life.
Thinking about any by election can wait
But yes, if the Conservatives lose their reputation for managing money well and keeping taxes low, that's a problem for them.
(And note, this isn't about rights and wrongs of policy, or Johnson and Sunak's bad luck at being in the big chairs when the problems stored up for over a decade finally blew up. This is about reputation and perception, and they're not entirely rational. As Boris knows very well.)
I think we both think stuff should be shaken up badly. Some of the financial stuff you posted recently, although I agree with in principle, was far to radical for me in the short term, re the effect on the economy, however the stuff I would like to do re the constitution would scare the willies out of most people.
We need a good thread on atheism or the universal wage to do a pincer movement on the dissenters.
https://twitter.com/UKPavilion2020/status/1446022515894198272
RIP
Those with the most to lose from immigration are often the most recently settled wave of immigrants - those without much in the way of assets and who are dependent on selling their labour, the value of which is driven down by the arrival of a new source of labour.
Economic Left/Right: -4.5
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54
Yes there is a word for that and that word is racism. You sir, are a racist and should be ashamed of yourself.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-eu-referendum-results-the-five-london-boroughs-which-bucked-the-trend-and-backed-brexit-a3279836.html
Fuhgeddaboutit.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-eu-referendum-results-the-five-london-boroughs-which-bucked-the-trend-and-backed-brexit-a3279836.html
So not as Leave-y as Havering (here it was 70-30), but a lot more Leave-y than average.
So long as people are respectful of the individual, discussion shouldn’t be stifled. Especially on a blog like this. The whole point of PB is discuss/argue about political implications of events and attempt to predict the outcomes of elections. Twitter is a bit different, but I still don’t see the problem with TND’s tweet.
You can log off if you want.
Aside: But I'm willing to accept that racism is a reason that some attack Patel; for me, she's no more objectionable on immigration than May was as Home Secretary (which is to say that I find both quite unpleasant)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1446430699146317826?s=20
I think this is because leftish-liberals are centrists who got mugged by the economy.
Also, I consider myself well to the right of Corbyn et al, so god knows what his results would be.
She was considered hot favourite, in New Zealand.
Furthermore there is another fundamental flaw in the analysis, in the way its being applied by GW, in that it is making an essentially racist "they all look the same" division of people as being British-born or migrants. Treating all migrants as fungible.
In any other walk of life if you were to say "they're all the same" you'd be considered a racist and while I am not accusing the authors of this article of being racist, this falls into the first pitfall I made - assumptions. By assuming all migrants are fungible in this analysis in order to do the analysis, you've assumed away the differences between people.
Its entirely possible and logical that some migrants boost our productivity (high skilled migrants) while some migrants deflate our productivity (low skilled minimum wage, claiming UC and housing benefit migrants). If the high-skilled migrants boost productivity by more than the low-skilled ones deflate it, then overall in the analysis absolutely migration will rightly correlate with higher productivity.
However if we replace free movement that keeps the high skilled migrants coming, but rejects the low-skilled ones, then we can get the best of both worlds potentially. Gain the boost from high skilled ones, do not take the deflation from the low skilled ones. Win/win. That's hypothetical and unproven - but also untested in this analysis.
Which brings us back full circle to my first post. You can prove anything you want in economics - if you choose assumptions and models that suit your agenda.
Economic -5.0
Social -6.46.
Some weird questions about children.
And the religious section fundamentally assumes you are of an Abrahamic faith. Which may explain my score.
15 or so minutes drive away.
Just as backers of PR support FPTP once it looks like they'll win.
To me May was much worse. She was behind the hostile environment, she sent vans into minority areas telling people to GO HOME. She is repugnant.
Patel has ended freedom of movement with other white European countries, May also wanted to do as PM, but what else has she done?
So I'm a left wing libertarian. Not exactly how I see myself. I would say centre on the left right axis, and while I generally see myself as liberal, I am quite strong on personal responsibility and respect for institutions.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/265345781696
although not quite the bargain the £1000 Porsche was when back in the early 2000's a girlfriend found her boyfriend was doing the dirty but the car was in her name for "reasons".
Your Political Compass
Economic Left/Right: -1.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.64
I'd still describe myself as a centrist though.
In any case he had a huge majority of 44% and got 64% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup at the last general election and Bexley was 63% Leave so it will obviously be a fairly easy Tory hold anyway
Signs may include the name 'Nippy' creeping into conversation, deliberately picking out the UJ emblazoned foodstuffs at Morrisons and humming the R4 UK theme under one's breath.
Twenty years ago when I first took this I was more in the bottom-right corner than I am now, something like 7, -7 from memory. So I've gone more to the centre as I've gotten older.
She did bring her infant to the UN though!
She’s brilliant at optics, excludes empathy, and made the correct call to close the borders before Covid could get to NZ.
Administratively she’s astonishingly crap, though the foreign media tend not to pick that up.
It's really noticeable in the data that Chinese and Indians outearn white people, but Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are some of the worst performing ethnic groups.
It's more or less predictable from their educational qualifications.
https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1446437721757700153?s=20
The Bangladeshi migrants tended to be from a very poor region (ie Sylhet).
We need Justin to balance the scales!!
* Johnson is of course spinning this.
The sad death of James Brokenshaw may open up another opportunity for them in a by election, say mid November. Looks like a mountain to climb but suspect they will establish themselves in second place by the last week of the campaign.
Social authoritarian/libertarian - 7.49.
Libertarian Socialist.
Sad news RE Brokenshire, thoughts with his family and friends.
Economic Left/Right: -9.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.05
Although if they’d put in a few questions about responses to the pandemic such as vaccine mandates I bet my authoritarian score would have gone up!
Fundamentally I want a Fully Automatic Luxury Gay Space Communism like Iain Banks’ Culture.
As for unlimited immigration, the only person I know pushing this is @Richard_Tyndall.
So I am a lefty after all and one surrounded in marijuana smoke going hi man to everyone by the looks of it.
Since when he hasn't been.
The Libs won a majority in 2015. And have since twice won most seats with fewer votes.
What a remarkable coincidence!
Economics is ultimately all about the productive use of scarce resources. Shortages are a show of scarcity and allows even more productive use.
If resources weren't scarce, there'd never be any shortages, but nor would we have any need for economics.