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The conference season voting intention polls – politicalbetting.com
The conference season voting intention polls – politicalbetting.com
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The conference season voting intention polls – politicalbetting.com
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Would be nice to know what the average movement has been for previous governments between mid-term polling and the results of the next election - ie on average from here what sort of upward movement might be possible for the Con share?
Mid term polls bear no relation to subsequent general election results.
Replying to
@twlldun
He should just stick to football but also present a fully costed general election manifesto
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1446403113607389210
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/
Things can move quite significantly, can't they?
However. 17 consecutive polls showing 39, 40 or 41 is a statistical freak.
One would call herding were it not for the seemingly no idea what the Labour score is.
Edit:
On a closer look it is 35, 36 or 37. Apart from 3 You Govs.
So 40 -36 it is then.
At the moment what the polling chart shows is the most likely general election outcome is either a small Tory majority or a hung parliament
On those figures that would be "brave". Bordering on the "clinically insane."
It's a vast ocean across which any party must pass to get a majority.
https://twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1445855098408734725?s=20
https://emckclac-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/k1638510_kcl_ac_uk/EZau8FMWb_RHoYcV4_LYnM4B2nSq5TiVW2KlH2Jg8wdRdg?e=XO4bbM
Lots of good stuff in there.
A 1% increase in migration is associated with an 0.86% improvement in productivity in the short term, and an estimated 1.6% improvement in the medium to long term.
It is increasingly clear the wages in the U.K. have stagnated not because of immigration, but because of the global factors @rcs1000 cited last night, plus the sudden bust in financial services after the GFC and the decline in the U.K. oil industry.
Indeed, immigration looks to have prevented even worse wage performance.
It's laughable that you still believe this crap.
Have I judged that correctly?
I am often misjudged as being of the left because I attack the Conservatives often, but equally I don't support Labour. I have never voted Labour and I am 67 in a few weeks. I often feel traditional Conservatives come out with some staggering Socialist policies (not you, just in general).
Well not laughable, I find it a bit pathetic to be honest.
What seats are likely to be stable regardless? Which are likely to change due to "values shifts" (largely down to demographics, places like Wycombe and Chingford) and which due to economic and competency factors (Leigh and Peterborough)?
Some will double-up - there could be massive swings in places like Milton Keynes and Worthing, for example, whilst the Red Wall moves very modestly.
The great unknown will be whether the import of low skilled immigrants brought the figures down overall rather than helping it. I suspect it's impossible to test prior to now (unless we look at Switzerland and work out how to map things) if excluding low skilled migrants will improve those figures.
However 1% migration -> 0.86% productivity improvement doesn't look good and estimates are just that estimates with assumptions that need to be verified.
They want immigration to be a net positive so they've fit the evidence to that conclusion. Economics isn't a science, it's people's opinions masquerading as such.
I consider myself to be a traditional shire Tory. I don't agree with anyone all of the time on anything but I think the poster on here that comes closest to my views is @Sean_F
Of course, low skill can become high skill over time, too. I think that’s often forgotten.
My first job in the U.K. was in a mail-room.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/08/breaking-james-brokenshire-passes-away
He has been off work with lung cancer.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/08/breaking-james-brokenshire-passes-away/
For virtually any position on anything it is possible to find an economist to argue on behalf of that position. It is equally possible to find an economist to argue against that position. Both will have models and evidence to support them, neither is lying, but both have chosen their own assumptions and those assumption will shape the output.
Anyone who thinks they're right because they've seen an economic model that agrees with them . . . doesn't understand economics at all.
At least until vaccines came along…
https://twitter.com/ZemmourEric/status/1446366892541816844
Basically, as you say, our research doesn't match our preferred conclusion so we've bodged it to give the answer we want via assumptions to get our final estimate.
One of the good guys
Love and sympathy to all his family
Who is this guy? It totally fails the smell test.
Of the European Countries, they are *all* way below the EU average, which immediately undermines any conclusions he is trying to draw.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~DEU~European+Union~SWE~IRL~NOR~JPN~SGP
I think I will avoid twitter and facebook for a couple of days.
I hate bureaucracy and state interference because they are useless at it, but accept it is needed, but as little as possible. Leave people to live their lives.
I am also very, very socially liberal.
I like SeanF a lot also, but I like the views of a range of people. I like TSE, Nigelb, IanB2, kinabalu etc so a wide selection across the spectrum
Does this come as a surprise? What did you think my views were? I won't be offended if you though I was a raving Socialist.
As a whole Europe including us look bad.
At best he has picked a tiny unrepresentative dataset of dissimilar countries, which will give very weak conclusions.
Priti Patel should should be ashamed
In 2010, few people would have dreamed that Kensington, Chingford, Epsom & Ewell would be marginal seats; that Canterbury, Enfield Southgate, Putney, Battersea, Reading East, would all be held by Labour when the Conservatives won a landslide. That Blyth Valley, Burnley, Durham NW, Leigh, Heywood & Middleton would go Conservative. That Stoke South, Warwickshire North, NW Leics would all be rock solid seats for the Tories. That a working class voter in Stoke would be more likely to be a Conservative than a banker in Central London.
Things come fast.
Edit/add: you also note that 0.86% growth is unimpressive but the new Tory consensus (TM) is that immigration causes a DECLINE in productivity.
It comes as a surprise because almost all the posts of yours I can recall relate to social issues, institutions and the nation state, and that is where the zeitgeist currently is in political debate and where I suspect we diverge.
Its entirely possible [indeed quite logical] that immigrants are attracted to increased productivity areas because that's where more jobs are available, rather than causing the increased productivity. Indeed its possible and undemonstrated either way that the increased productivity areas could have been even more productive if they weren't deflated by more minimum wage jobs.
Simply finding a correlation isn't proof of anything in economics.
Almost all your list would apply to 2015 as well. Brexit changing (almost) everything?
"That agrees with my previously formed opinion that people ill with Covid were told to stay at home to save the NHS, so we failed to use the NHS to save as many lives as could be saved, and that generally the government's response was lacklustre, and they failed to take several steps today could have saved lives and reduced the economic damage."
"That is pretty damning" was faster to type though.
Socially, I have a very little in common with some of the most reliably Conservative voters now. However, politically, I have very little in common with the views of the professional class, where most of my network now sits.
It's like everything I thought I knew has rotated about its base all around me, and it's rather disorientating.
There's a word for that.
And therefore the Tories are a bunch of deplorables? ??
NEW: Former Government minister and Conservative MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire, who had been suffering with lung cancer, has died aged 53, his family has said in a statement.
https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1446423044210282510?s=20
On one level it's fully understandable, on another it feels utterly wrong
with Guido having taken the news down and nothing elsewhere there was a faint hope it was false news.
That is sad. RIP.
The strength of any conclusions are on the basis of the figures used.
If the figures are not representative, then that is a questionable foundation for any conclusions.
If he wants to make qualitative comparisons, fine. But then do not pretend that a peculiar selection of data gives objective conclusions.
Unless the data is representative, a different skewed set of data can be selected and give different answers.
eg If he chose Portgal, Belgium, Italy and Slovenia for his EU sample, then the conclusions would be different.
It's just a skewed / partial (as in incomplete) analysis, when it could have been far better.
RIP.
He started his political career in Epping Forest Conservatives
I think many on the radical Left thinks minorities are a new base of allies who will give rise to permanent victory (replacing the WWC, who let them down) but I think their values are far more conservative, and as they cease to be minorities and become pluralities their voting behaviour will converge with the mean.
Argh.
Edit - Behind the curve.
As for this it depends on what you / they are measuring - if its GDP 1% increase in population with a 0.86% increase in productivity then GDP per capita is down and not up.
And GDP per Capita is a way better indicator of real wealth compared to GDP as a whole.
You also have the issue that Philip points out. If the migration is towards economically productive areas could that 1% in population growth be impacting productivity growth that would otherwise have been 2% (utterly unlikely but hard to disprove).
I do remember going to a party at Radcliffe Chambers about a week after the Brexit vote, and was asked how I voted by someone who simply took for granted that I had voted Remain, and was horrified to discover the awful truth. He was even more horrified to discover that about a third of those present, including a judge, had voted for Leave.
Re nation state are you referring to my luke warm attachment to nations and my liking of the EU?
I have to say it comes as a surprise that is how I come across. I thought I would come across as an Orange Book liberal, but often our own perception are different to what others see.
I would love to know what @Philip_Thompson and @HYUFD think I am with whom I have had many discussions.
Once again goes to show that anyone can get cancer at any age and from any walk of life and not necessarily with the known "risk factors" present...
RIP and thoughts with his family and friends.
The reality is its impossible to know for certain one way or another. There is evidence pointing in both directions, so all we can do is make a call and wait and see.
I do have real conversations with people on a private 1:1 basis along the lines you discuss, and these reveal about 25-35% of my network secretly agree with me.
Or earlier if a bookie puts up a market on it before then.
Cherry picking data to show "UK uniquely awful" rather undermines confidence in the rest of his argument....
It’s like discovering that Bruce Forsyth was into scat porn.
I think the enquiry(ries) will be damning, but I hope they will also be fair, in that decisions were taken at the time, with the information at the time. Of course many on here will not agree. The government(s) all messed up to some extent. No-one has got this fully right. Our pain was the first part of the pandemic, while NZ say, has done superbly up to now, but will have a period of pain to come. But I would beg that criticisms are fair, and based on what was known/believed at the time.