Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Will Labour get their fourth successive worst ever vote share in an English constituency? One for Smarkets!!!
That would be sub-13.7%. What do you reckon?
Highly unlikely
Yeah me too. The only possibility is if the LD's somehow get into a position where they look like they have a chance. Can't see it. London is so much different to 1983.
If it really were (inner) London, it might be a different story. But Bexley is full of van or taxi driving leavers
I spent a day at the magistrate's Court down there a few years back. That probably gave me a bad impression of the place, but it seemed like it was a bit of a hole. Not as bad as Woolwich, obvs.
I don’t think you are wrong. Although TBF being up in front of the magistrates would probably give you a bad impression of anywhere,
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
One of the few (unless one is Jeremy Corbyn) benefits of opposition is one is not obliged to offer advice in the form of policy detail to one's opponents. Not yet at any rate.
In a world of crises, our crises at the moment do appear to be "world beating" crises.
Suck it up, you won.
I don’t think his “extraordinarily unpopular decisions” is right, at least not yet. The crises we face are unpopular, and stem in part from less unpopular decisions taken already. But that’s rather different from saying the government faces protest for decisions being taken now. Aside from UC, which is hardly targeting core voters.
To be clear. I grew up in all White mining Lancashire in the 70's. Casual racism was endemic. It was nowt like the all-pervasive, and often vicious personal prejudice against "Indians" I encountered in Canada in the mid-80's. That was another level. And from folk who wouldn't have dreamt of discriminating against Blacks, Jews or Muslims either. "Indians" were lazy, dirty, feckless, dangerous alcoholics, not to be trusted or associated with. That was a given. The revelations about what went on in Canada's residential schools comes as no surprise to me. The idea that Canada was ever a model of racial tolerance does.
To be clear. I grew up in all White mining Lancashire in the 70's. Casual racism was endemic. It was nowt like the all-pervasive, and often vicious personal prejudice against "Indians" I encountered in Canada in the mid-80's. That was another level. And from folk who wouldn't have dreamt of discriminating against Blacks, Jews or Muslims either. "Indians" were lazy, dirty, feckless, dangerous alcoholics, not to be trusted or associated with. That was a given. The revelations about what went on in Canada's residential schools comes as no surprise to me. The idea that Canada was ever a model of racial tolerance does.
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
One of the few (unless one is Jeremy Corbyn) benefits of opposition is one is not obliged to offer advice in the form of policy detail to one's opponents. Not yet at any rate.
In a world of crises, our crises at the moment do appear to be "world beating" crises.
For those who missed it in the morning thread, the jab is free for over 50s and £14.99 for everyone else - if you don't want to do it via your GP I found the Boots online booking and instore service quick and efficient:
Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.
Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?
I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool
HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.
Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.
I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues
HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis
We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it
True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
What precise effects does "politically correct pandering" have on the economy? Are we heading for a person of colour Wednesday or something? Is the finance system about to become differently abled?
Neither of those would suprise me.
But when you have companies made to produce Modern Slavery statements and say how many women are on their boards, maybe you don't need to.
Ignoring the obvious (and unlikely) "the denominator is wrong" could it be greater proportion of ethnic minority (and more vaccine resistant) population in England?
On the children there's a clearly different approach - Scotland "walk in" vs England "via schools only" - but older ages reasons not as immediately obvious...
@Mexicanpete is this one of my "anti-devolution posts"?
Ignoring the obvious (and unlikely) "the denominator is wrong" could it be greater proportion of ethnic minority (and more vaccine resistant) population in England?
On the children there's a clearly different approach - Scotland "walk in" vs England "via schools only" - but older ages reasons not as immediately obvious...
@Mexicanpete is this one of my "anti-devolution posts"?
Yes, significantly lower proportion of minority people, specially Black and Pakistani/Bangladeshi where uptake is about 60-70% vs White and Indian where uptake is between 90-100%,
Is anyone watching the new “28 Up”? It is not at all as good as the original, although it’s interesting to think why.
One reason, I think, is that Britain really is less class-bound than it was 30 years ago. Most of this crop of kids (who were 7 in 2000) have settled into a kind of generic lower middle class-ness, regardless of race or even disability. The two rich kids have done fuck-all with some very expensive educations.
The kids appear to be duller, too. Maybe growing up in the 60s and 70s was more character-building.
I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?
Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.
Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.
Yes, exactly the same thing struck me. I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?
I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.
The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.
I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.
"As close to a certainty as there can be"
So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?
If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you
Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?
@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.
Comments
It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.
(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).
It was nowt like the all-pervasive, and often vicious personal prejudice against "Indians" I encountered in Canada in the mid-80's. That was another level.
And from folk who wouldn't have dreamt of discriminating against Blacks, Jews or Muslims either.
"Indians" were lazy, dirty, feckless, dangerous alcoholics, not to be trusted or associated with. That was a given.
The revelations about what went on in Canada's residential schools comes as no surprise to me.
The idea that Canada was ever a model of racial tolerance does.
But when you have companies made to produce Modern Slavery statements and say how many women are on their boards, maybe you don't need to.
Here's a question:
Scotland is smashing it out the park in terms of vaccinating 12-15 year olds. And check out the rate of jabs in 16-17 year olds compared to England.
But how come vaccine coverage is higher in all ages over 50 in Scotland even with comparable ONS denominators?
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1446510730723926016?s=20
Ignoring the obvious (and unlikely) "the denominator is wrong" could it be greater proportion of ethnic minority (and more vaccine resistant) population in England?
On the children there's a clearly different approach - Scotland "walk in" vs England "via schools only" - but older ages reasons not as immediately obvious...
@Mexicanpete is this one of my "anti-devolution posts"?
It is not at all as good as the original, although it’s interesting to think why.
One reason, I think, is that Britain really is less class-bound than it was 30 years ago. Most of this crop of kids (who were 7 in 2000) have settled into a kind of generic lower middle class-ness, regardless of race or even disability. The two rich kids have done fuck-all with some very expensive educations.
The kids appear to be duller, too. Maybe growing up in the 60s and 70s was more character-building.