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Starmer’s challenge: LAB starts in an almost impossible position – politicalbetting.com

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  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    The "future of aviation".....in a 36 year old aircraft:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/winners-of-3-million-zero-emission-flight-aviation-competition-announced

    It's a Dornier Aurigny sold them earlier this year....

    15 projects given a total of £700,000. Can’t see that going too far, when trying to do anything involving aeroplanes.
    It needs something like the X Prize. A $10mn prize for a jumbo jet design that is purely electric...
    Simply not feasible.
    Electric will be short/medium haul, and single aisle aircraft.

    The big jets will need synthetic fuel manufactured using renewable electric, which is a decade off at least, but is entirely feasible given the cash being thrown at developing more efficient processes (and the early results from that).
    Yes, synthetic fuels are the best near-term solution, as they can run on existing planes. Getting the volume required, and the cost of production down to something reasonable, are the challenges.
    I would guess it's about a two decade project, but it's entirely doable.
    And as large amounts of surplus solar electricity in places like the Middle East will have a marginal cost of zero well within that timeframe, the incentives to develop mass industrial processes are enormous.
    Electrolytic hydrogen, then converted to ammonia, is an option for a carbon-free fuel. Gas turbines/jet engines can run on it. NOx emissions might be an issue for aviation application, mind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    SKS fans please explain his latest unpopularity.

    People like you are unprepared to give him a chance. Oh Jeremy Corbyn.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    On the ethnic minority front there are clearly MPs who represent seats with very few ethnic minorities - and good thing too, it should be irrelevant and people do care about party label so much more - buy I wonder if there is info on of there is a correlation over all of seats with higher ethnic minorities are more likely to have MPs from an ethnic minority? If candidates are local its presumably more likely.

    Certainly not for Tory seats. Most ethnic minority candidates come through CCHQ assignment to shortlists in safe seats which has had success in significantly increasing the number of BME Tory MPs in the last decade.

    However most of the RedWall marginal seats the Tories gained from Labour in 2019 were won by white male local Tory candidates

    Dehanna Davison?
    Possibly an exception which proves the rule.
    She was still not BME though
    No. She's just from a different planet.
  • Thats actually a fairly good line from Starmer about heckling.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    edited September 2021
    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Thats actually a fairly good line from Starmer about heckling.

    I didn't realise he was being heckled until he responded to it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578
    Sandpit said:

    Live report from the Old Bailey at the Wayne Couzens sentencing hearing.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/29/sarah-everard-trial-wayne-couzens-sentencing-live-news/

    It’s way more horrible than you ever thought it might have been :cry:

    Poor old Skyr, competing with this in the news cycle.....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Policy fail depends upon what the objectives of the policy were.

    Considering the objective seemed to be purely media spin to get the conversation moved on from the media, who had created a media-driven panic, then possibly that might be considered a[n extremely cynical] policy success?

    With over a million qualified HGV drivers in the UK alone the onus is back on employer's to offer a fair market wage to fill the vacancies, as they should. And if wages go up, HMRC gets extra taxes since IR35 means its no longer a tax dodging industry.
    So, are you suggesting that the 5000 visa policy was purely to calm things down and not really viable?
    I said so when it was announced. So yes.
    You did. I also remember you said the same about the NI situation re Brexit and Boris (negotiate something he had no intention of honouring, knowing he had the EU over a barrel if he didn't). If you are right, and you may well be, it shows Boris to be cunning and not incompetent, but I really wonder what I prefer.

    When you said it about the NI negotiations it was not something that I had considered as a possibility prior to that. I have negotiated too many contracts to remember, but not once did I negotiate in bad faith. Equally I never made statements of intent that I knew beforehand were impossible.

    Politics might well be different to commercial stuff, but you soon learn to keep a barge pole between yourself and certain businesses for this reason and my experience is that those who pull a fast one in a negotiation soon come a cropper.

    Even though Boris being cunning might be better for the country in the short term I still prefer to think it is really incompetence.
    Countries aren't businesses and realpolitik has for centuries rewarded nations that are cunning.

    France for decades have treated the EU with what you would call cunning. Sign up to rules for a European level - then if you dislike them, just disregard them. Germany have done the same too, the moment that the Growth & Stability Pact that Germany had insisted upon didn't suit Germany they simply stopped following its rules.

    One reason Britain was so unsuited to Europe was we as a nation did follow the rules, whether we agreed with them or not, rather than following the other nations that didn't. So the rules that we didn't like, really rubbed us the wrong way in a way they don't elsewhere.

    Countries and leaders all over the world are cunning. What else would you use to describe Biden who at the G7 was buddy-buddy with Macron while in the room next door he was hatching a conspiracy for America and Britain to usurp the very valuable French military contract with Australia? That was pure cunning and Biden pulled it off brilliantly!

    For anyone who thinks Biden is suffering from mental decline, that episode actually shows the opposite. He was cunning as a fox and good for him! That's not something Trump could have gotten away with as he was always 'bull in a china shop' rather than cunning. Boris is on the same page as Biden, its what countries need due to realpolitik. Wishing that away does us no favours.
    I think I agree with most or even all of that, although a minor downside tends to be that in the past it has lead to wars on occasions. I prefer honesty.

    Your observation re the British and rules compared to the French is a good one and it is something that irritates me in fact. I like to look at the reason for the rule. if it doesn't apply then ignore it. The French do just that; we obey blindly. I have had several pointless arguments in the past with officials where in a particular circumstance the rules, although good in principle, make the situation worse in this instance. The argument is pointless; rules are rules!

    One that bugs me is the imperial measures argument. Now I am all for standardising measures in supermarkets, but if someone wants to use Imperial because they are running a Victorian style shop, or possibly because they are blithering idiots I have no desire to prosecute them. In a French market they would be left alone, here we prosecute and are now even going to change the law back again. A pointless waste of everyone's time. Prosecute Sainsbury's if they do it, ignore the market trader if they do.
    Agreed. Generally speaking, the English's relationship with rules is suboptimal. Far too many people among my family, for instance, blindly follow rules, then moan about them. When I ask why they are following rules they (rightly) consider to be stupid, they have no answer beyond 'well they are the rules'. We would all do well to be more questioning.
  • glw said:

    Lammy now having a go at BBC. Losing it a bit now. Getting well shirty.

    Rachel Burdon on Radio 5 had the temerity to ask Lammy about something he'd said (Trans stuff) and he really got quite angry with her. Labour members should probably avoid Radio 5 in the mornings, they are not coming out of such interviews looking good.
    More like Rachel Burdon showing her true colours.
    She supports Labour.
    With supporters like her, who needs enemies? Source for her support please?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    edited September 2021

    Thats actually a fairly good line from Starmer about heckling.

    Did he use the old Mike Reid line?

    'You haven't got the hang of this heckling lark have you? You're supposed to make me look a prick.'
  • That jokes a bit cringe... doesn't seem authentic from him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited September 2021
    Clear pitch for redwall workers from Starmer, emphasising the respect he got for skilled workers from his toolmaker father and stressing Labour must be the party of working people (as opposed to just leftwing students and lecturers like some in the hall)
  • dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    Do I detect Philip Collins on this one? Former Blair writer. The "two roads in the woods" seems his style.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    That jokes a bit cringe... doesn't seem authentic from him

    A bit mean, wasn't it?
  • Dignity of work.

    Labour need to run more with this line of thinking. Crudas has written on it.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    A former Labour MP writes:

    Those who think our traditional voters had nowhere else to go need to think again. And many in the party did think there was no other choice for our working-class supporters than to dutifully keep on voting Labour, election after election. Memories of the Tories were often enough to pull them back into line, but that simply does not work anymore.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2021/09/29/dont-expect-buyers-remorse-it-is-going-to-take-hard-slog-to-rebuild-the-red-wall/

    There'll be some buyer's remorse, but itd be foolish to rely on it. Some will have been moving toward the Tories for ages before finally taking the plunge and may feel liberated by it, no going back.
    Calling them scum helps with that!
    I think you'll find she called scum on the Tory MPs/Cabinet ministers.
    Good luck explaining that to the red wall seats, come the next election.
    Well, I'll just say one thing to the PB Johnson Fanbois, if the cap fits, where it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,094
    edited September 2021

    glw said:

    Lammy now having a go at BBC. Losing it a bit now. Getting well shirty.

    Rachel Burdon on Radio 5 had the temerity to ask Lammy about something he'd said (Trans stuff) and he really got quite angry with her. Labour members should probably avoid Radio 5 in the mornings, they are not coming out of such interviews looking good.
    More like Rachel Burdon showing her true colours.
    She supports Labour.
    With supporters like her, who needs enemies? Source for her support please?
    As I have said I listen to her most every early morning and she gives no indication of political bias

    She may, but I reject @bigjohnowls assertion as she does not show it publicly
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited September 2021

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    I can see the French Presidency bring Britain back into, for example, Galileo.

    This is probably inevitable now that the British GNSS has been abandoned and the hairbrained plan for turning British Leyland in Space/OneWeb into a GNSS isn't really feasible.

    Pride will demand that it's after the current cast of characters have left the stage though.
    It wasn't _that_ hairbrained...

    https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9541006

    Summary: 8m accuracy using current Starlink satellites (will get better as more are launched), without any cooperation or adaptation of the signals by SpaceX
    Satellites like Starlink/OW do not broadcast continuously (unlike GPS) so the baseline acquisition time is very long. In the Starlink experiment it took 800 seconds.

    Position using time-of-flight calcs is fine for finding Waitrose but dedicated GNSS birds have their positions located and updated from ground stations for applications that need higher levels of accuracy.

    You'd also need a relatively large Ku/Ka band antenna on your phone or whatever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,733
    edited September 2021
    He's knocking it out of the park so far.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    He's knocking it out of the park so far.

    Really?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845
    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?
  • He's knocking it out of the park so far.

    He's sincere on the NHS stuff and heart felt...but its easy ground.
  • DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    The industry estimate was 16% of stations operating normally this morning. Comical Ali would be proud of the fan clubs attempts to pretend otherwise though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Shouting slogans or changing lives?

    GREAT STUFF. The nutters are playing into his hands.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    Doh!
    Robert Frost of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050

    He's knocking it out of the park so far.

    He's sincere on the NHS stuff and heart felt...but its easy ground.
    Has had to just deal with a Corbynite heckler from the floor though
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673

    SKS fans please explain his latest unpopularity.

    People like you are unprepared to give him a chance. Oh Jeremy Corbyn.
    I didnt take part in YG that shows he is viewed increasingly negatively though.

    It shows in January people were initially prepared to give him a chance but now think he is

    1. Incompetent:
    2. Not Likeable:
    3. Untrustworthy:
    4 Indecisive:
    5. Weak

    Or in summary a useless nonentity

    He is as big a liar as Boris.

    I will never vote Labour whilst he is leader.

    Not just me though is it unless YG sampled only Corbynites
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,162
    edited September 2021
    DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    Very patchy. One part of London near me with no problems, living apparently in a blissful, sunny early autumn paradise, another not much further away with tempers frayed and angry people.
  • Idiots heckling during/just after Starmer tells an emotional story about the NHS/his sick mum. What morons, could hardly pick a worse time to heckle. 🙄
  • Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    1m
    it takes a special someone to heckle a politician while they're reminiscing about their mother in hospital intensive care
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,729
    Loving the woman with the protective covid visor pushed up so she can shout spittle out over a wide area
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    2 Green gains in Broadlands - Labour fall from 2nd to 4th.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    Struggling now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited September 2021
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
    To some extent it looks good, Tory swing voters want to see him take on Corbynites to show Labour is moving towards being electable again.

    He has to have some element of Kinnock taking on Militant for Labour to progress
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    I can see the French Presidency bring Britain back into, for example, Galileo.

    This is probably inevitable now that the British GNSS has been abandoned and the hairbrained plan for turning British Leyland in Space/OneWeb into a GNSS isn't really feasible.

    Pride will demand that it's after the current cast of characters have left the stage though.
    It wasn't _that_ hairbrained...

    https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9541006

    Summary: 8m accuracy using current Starlink satellites (will get better as more are launched), without any cooperation or adaptation of the signals by SpaceX
    Satellites like Starlink/OW do not broadcast continuously (unlike GPS) so the baseline acquisition time is very long. In the Starlink experiment it took 800 seconds.

    Position using time-of-flight calcs is fine for finding Waitrose but dedicated GNSS birds have their positions located and updated from ground stations for applications that need higher levels of accuracy.
    I have a GNSS system which I use for professional archaeological surveying. Using the GPS/GLONASS system it has an accuracy of about 3m. If I add in Galileo that comes down to about 2m. To get real mm accuracy you need the RTK licence which corrects the satellite measurements and works through the mobile network. With that you can get your accuracy down to between 5mm and 10mm.
  • What a utter rabble. Starmers looks ok. Labour are a shit show.
  • Starmer is decent, and in his own way capable, and would make a reasonable PM but we all know how the media are going to report this and highlight the negatives

    It is what the media does
  • Extraordinary scenes in Brighton as Starmer takes on the nutters in the Left who are shouting.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2021
    DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    All my local petrol stations, in the wm are dry
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673
    Starmer - "My dad was a toolmaker"

    and people say he is not honest

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
    To some extent it looks good, Tory swing voters want to see him take on Corbynites to show Labour is moving towards being electable again.

    He has to have some element of Kinnock taking on Militant for Labour to progress
    Excellent point.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,201
    edited September 2021

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yet another front that Labour is now facing is the threat to their dominance amongst ethnic minorities. This government is by far the most racially diverse we have ever had and it is not even close. The modern Conservative party has excellent role models for many ethnic minorities and has shown that there is no glass ceiling for them either.

    There are some interesting numbers in this site re the number of seats held by the respective parties and the percentage of the population that is non white: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/
    Other than 1 extreme outlier the Tories have traditionally done very badly in such seats. If that starts to change Labour are in deep trouble. And I think it will, especially with those of an Indian background. If Rishi replaces Boris those risks will be all the greater.

    Especially since the Tories don't talk down to minorities like Labour can tend to do so.

    The modern Tories are extremely comfortable with people of all races without needing to divide people against each other.
    There are of course still some not so modern Tories but they are increasingly far away from the power centre of the party. Its a very good thing.
    I think you are deluded. Mild racism and overt homophobia was rife in the Conservative Party among the more right wing of the activists when I was involved over 10 years ago. Those are the people that are still members and activists today. Most of the more liberally minded individuals have left. There is diversity in the upper echelons of the party and that is a good thing, but there is still plenty of prejudice, and while some wish to deny it the anti-EU rhetoric is essentially xenophobic in not all, but most.
    Is there research less than a decade old on this?

    Genuine question.
    It would need to be very recent research as Conservative Party membership has trebled in the last couple of years.
    Quite interested - do you have a source for Tory membership going down to 70k? I have seen speculative numbers but nothing more.

    Currently it is around 200-220k, and I'd agree with "nearly doubled".

    As to who they all are, I don't know.

    The numbers that would really interest me are 1 - Age profile, and 2 - Has there been a tilt to the Midlands / North.
    Since the Conservatives do not publish annual figures like the other parties, there can only be what you call speculation but are probably leaks from CCHQ. 60 or 70,000 was widely reported. Note that even now after the recent trebling of membership, they are really only back to where they were during the Labour years.

    A quick google finds this, for instance:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-party-membership-boris-johnson-b1823310.html

    Anyway, the point is that the recent influx of new members (not entryists because that only happens to Labour!) means any research on party members' attitudes or beliefs is probably unreliable if more than 2 or 3 years old.
    Exactly. I'm aware of that, and the Indy is not exactly a reliable source.

    That's likely based on a bit of speculation from here, where the actual number never goes below 100k.
    https://copov.blogspot.com/search?q=membership
  • What a utter rabble. Starmers looks ok. Labour are a shit show.

    I think they are doing him a favour. This could be the Kinnock moment. Taking on the loons and the rabble.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845

    DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    The industry estimate was 16% of stations operating normally this morning. Comical Ali would be proud of the fan clubs attempts to pretend otherwise though.
    Asda in Dundee had no problem with supplies (and no queue either) but was restricting people to £30 worth each. Not sure if that was a national thing but Tesco's didn't bother.

    I am not really making a political point. I filled my car because we are driving to Oxford on Friday and then pottering around England for 10 days or so. Is it really going to be more difficult than it was today?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    slade said:

    2 Green gains in Broadlands - Labour fall from 2nd to 4th.

    But Con hold in the other ward.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Sandpit said:

    Live report from the Old Bailey at the Wayne Couzens sentencing hearing.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/29/sarah-everard-trial-wayne-couzens-sentencing-live-news/

    It’s way more horrible than you ever thought it might have been :cry:

    Poor old Skyr, competing with this in the news cycle.....
    Mandelson and Campbell would have had Blair move his speech to yesterday or tomorrow, if they realised there was going to be a clash with something in the news.

    Keir really needs a media expert advising him.
  • DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    Very patchy. One part of London near me with no problems, living apparently in a blissful, sunny early autumn paradise, another not much further away with tempers frayed and angry people.
    Lincolnshire is fine. Went past 3 stations on the way back from getting a PCR test and all of them were fuelled up and no queues.
  • What a utter rabble. Starmers looks ok. Labour are a shit show.

    I think they are doing him a favour. This could be the Kinnock moment. Taking on the loons and the rabble.
    He needs to do more than just say they're chanting slogans.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
    To some extent it looks good, Tory swing voters want to see him take on Corbynites to show Labour is moving towards being electable again.

    He has to have some element of Kinnock taking on Militant for Labour to progress
    Excellent point.
    He needs to push this if they keep on yelling.

    Tell them to get out of the party. They are not wanted as he marches towards next election.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,162
    edited September 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
    To some extent it looks good, Tory swing voters want to see him take on Corbynites to show Labour is moving towards being electable again.

    He has to have some element of Kinnock taking on Militant for Labour to progress
    This assumes that many conditions are in place exactly as in the '90s, and I think that may be a very foolhardy assumption for the Labour hierarchy to make, if it's copy-pasted, verbatim, from a somewhat different historical context, and in any way that's too unsubtle. However, in the short-term if he's seen as assertive in his speech, and the exact reasons for dispute are not very widely explored or disputed as of yet, I think it will certainly do him no harm.

    This is his first big chance at a big, public setpiece speech - assertiveness is part of the very function.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    The industry estimate was 16% of stations operating normally this morning. Comical Ali would be proud of the fan clubs attempts to pretend otherwise though.
    Asda in Dundee had no problem with supplies (and no queue either) but was restricting people to £30 worth each. Not sure if that was a national thing but Tesco's didn't bother.

    I am not really making a political point. I filled my car because we are driving to Oxford on Friday and then pottering around England for 10 days or so. Is it really going to be more difficult than it was today?
    So "does SKS live in a fantasy land" is not making a political point! I am now unsure if you live in the fantasy land or you think the pb readership does!

  • DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    Very patchy. One part of London near me with no problems, living apparently in a blissful, sunny early autumn paradise, another not much further away with tempers frayed and angry people.
    Well that's ok then......

    Back to no problems, nothing to see here. (sarcastic)

    :neutral:
  • I am coming round to Starmer. He is coming across well and decent. The concern I have is with the nutters on the left, which is always the fear I have of the Labour Party.

    Hopefully he pulls a Kinnock.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    This is actually a very well-written speech so far. Delivery not quite up to it, but better than I was expecting as of now.
    Walt Whitman being channelled now. What odds on that?

    He’s doing quite well. He’s lucky the heckles are inaudible

    Ok, this bit looks bad
    To some extent it looks good, Tory swing voters want to see him take on Corbynites to show Labour is moving towards being electable again.

    He has to have some element of Kinnock taking on Militant for Labour to progress
    Excellent point.
    He needs to push this if they keep on yelling.

    Tell them to get out of the party. They are not wanted as he marches towards next election.
    Spot on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    Nice touch with the bereaved parents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578
    Leon said:

    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.

    Continuity Blair script writer.....
  • I don't think anyone can say that Starmer is not an honest decent man.

    But is he a good politician?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    This is good by Starmer
  • I don't think anyone can say that Starmer is not an honest decent man.

    But is he a good politician?

    I say that he's not an honest decent man.

    He stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Corbyn for years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,578

    I am coming round to Starmer. He is coming across well and decent. The concern I have is with the nutters on the left, which is always the fear I have of the Labour Party.

    Hopefully he pulls a Kinnock.

    What - losing to a John Major type?
  • Leon said:

    This is good by Starmer

    Top stuff. If he keeps this up it will be a sensational first speech.
  • Leon said:

    This is good by Starmer

    It is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350

    Leon said:

    This is good by Starmer

    Top stuff. If he keeps this up it will be a sensational first speech.
    I would not go that far. Lol. But it will reassure his doubters in the party. They still have to deal with the nutters, tho
  • These are good stories, but not much meat to whats behind it in terms of what he'll actually do.
  • Leon said:

    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.

    He is doing it very well. Emotional stuff. Excellent use of tone and volume. He has been very well rehearsed imho.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,518
    Leon said:

    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.

    From a voter perspective it means there is a long way to go. Post Blair the evidence has been of a party out of control that can't conduct itself in a vote winning way, which needs discipline, can't elect the best leader, and has a membership you would run a mile to avoid.

    The rise of Corbyn (despite his fall) also means that at any moment the lunatics can start running the asylum again.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,845
    Good stuff on crime. He has credibility on this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    What does fast-tracking rape cases mean?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    According to Greta Thunberg the UK's record as a world leader on renewable energy is irrelevant as we are still guilty of starting the industrial revolution.

    https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1442918404994658309?s=20

    Only Africa gets top marks from Greta on climate emissions as she retweeted this

    https://twitter.com/BBCAfrica/status/1442813387969282053?s=20

    It must have been awful to live through for many and there have been ill effects, but the revolution has led to incalculable benefits for humankind I'd say.
    And incalculable disbenefits for just about every other species.
    Yes, well, we can at least try to redress that now, but we shouldn't turn back the clock to pre-Industry and that wont bring other species back.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673

    I don't think anyone can say that Starmer is not an honest decent man.

    But is he a good politician?

    Well most surveyed in todays YG just did say he isnt honest

    Breaking every leadership pledge doesnt make you honest

    We are all agreed he is a shite politician i think
  • He is giving an excellent speech and it is upto labour now to rid themselves of Corbyn and his supporters to gain the support they need
  • say the words... say the words,...

    'Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104

    Not sure whether this has been covered?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/covid-new-zealand-reports-jump-in-cases-as-opposition-calls-for-opening-up

    I am/was a fan of Jacinda, but I'm increasingly concerned that she seems borderline delusional on Covid.

    She is on record as saying that 90% of the NZ population must be fully vaccinated before the country opens up – which sounds sensible until you calculate that (almost?) zero nations have achieved that yet, despite being months ahead of NZ on their vaccine programmes.

    The global evidence is that the law of diminishing returns bites hard – getting the last 15% vaccinated is tricky, because you run into a wall of apathy and/or antivaxxery.

    Meanwhile, NZ has plummeted from 1st to 38th on the Bloomberg Covid Resilience Index, which is a quite remarkable fall from grace.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/

    Has Jacinda lost the plot?

    If so theyll still be in a pretty good place compared to most, but she is not perfect.
  • Now onto crime. Hammering away. It's like New Labour never left the building.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    Yes, Sir Kir Royale, but how are you going to achieve any of this?

    Bit waffly now
  • DavidL said:

    Yet another front that Labour is now facing is the threat to their dominance amongst ethnic minorities. This government is by far the most racially diverse we have ever had and it is not even close. The modern Conservative party has excellent role models for many ethnic minorities and has shown that there is no glass ceiling for them either.

    There are some interesting numbers in this site re the number of seats held by the respective parties and the percentage of the population that is non white: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/
    Other than 1 extreme outlier the Tories have traditionally done very badly in such seats. If that starts to change Labour are in deep trouble. And I think it will, especially with those of an Indian background. If Rishi replaces Boris those risks will be all the greater.

    I see this talking point repeated on this site from time to time and I’m never entirely convinced by it. Partly by the fact that in my own anecdotal experience, I don’t know anyone among my family and black/Asian friends who actually sees government ministers as ‘role models’ or who are actually looking to political figures as examples of what success looks like. Even among my own family members who vote Tory, I’ve never actually heard them speak about Priti Patel or Kwasi Kwarteng as a role models. They may agree with them and sympathise with their politics but they don’t actually look up to them.

    I also think this idea that because the cabinet has ethnic minorities in some of the major offices of state = ethnic minorities will start voting Tory in their droves misunderstands why ethnic minorities have mostly voted Labour. It’s oddly a form of identity politics, which is weird given how much the right claim to dislike it.
  • tlg86 said:

    What does fast-tracking rape cases mean?

    Presumably cutting the time between charging for the crime and the trial.
  • tlg86 said:

    What does fast-tracking rape cases mean?

    Nothing, but it's a good line to punt in a speech.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673

    Leon said:

    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.

    He is doing it very well. Emotional stuff. Excellent use of tone and volume. He has been very well rehearsed imho.
    vacuous
  • I don't think anyone can say that Starmer is not an honest decent man.

    But is he a good politician?

    Well most surveyed in todays YG just did say he isnt honest

    Breaking every leadership pledge doesnt make you honest

    We are all agreed he is a shite politician i think
    I reject your last sentence completely and he is showing how labour could be without the toxic left
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,044
    edited September 2021

    Starmer is decent, and in his own way capable, and would make a reasonable PM but we all know how the media are going to report this and highlight the negatives

    It is what the media does

    I see where you're coming from, but I don't agree he's decent, given the opportunism he has shown in running for the Labour leadership as son-of-Corbyn, then screwing over the left. He clearly shares most of their instincts, given his ultra-left background, but has realised it won't win elections. That's just as dishonest, if not more so, than Boris Johnson's antics. His Brexit policy under Corbyn has the same stamp - shifty, dishonest opportunism and ambiguity.

    Nor do I particularly think he'd make a good PM, given his total lack of charisma and endless dithering and delaying, when the essence of a modern PM is to make snap judgements in the hundred difficult issues that come to his notice every week, then look good on TV or online. I think he'd be more like Gordon Brown in that respect.

    He is fairly good at mastering a brief, though, at least I assume he is from his time as a lawyer. So I'd see him as a competent second-string cabinet minister in a technically complicated department - Environment, perhaps - or perhaps head of a quango. Something where you don't need to be in the limelight a lot, but where there are complicated issues. PM is a definite overpromotion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350

    Bit disingenuous there. Claiming he was shocked when he found out 98% of rape cases don't end in a criminal conviction.

    What was he doing all that time he was DPP and head of the CPS?

    These have been the same numbers for years. Did he not know what was going on when he was the man responsible for prosecutions?

    Yes, that was an outright lie
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,373

    DavidL said:

    Yet another front that Labour is now facing is the threat to their dominance amongst ethnic minorities. This government is by far the most racially diverse we have ever had and it is not even close. The modern Conservative party has excellent role models for many ethnic minorities and has shown that there is no glass ceiling for them either.

    There are some interesting numbers in this site re the number of seats held by the respective parties and the percentage of the population that is non white: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge2019-how-did-demographics-affect-the-result/
    Other than 1 extreme outlier the Tories have traditionally done very badly in such seats. If that starts to change Labour are in deep trouble. And I think it will, especially with those of an Indian background. If Rishi replaces Boris those risks will be all the greater.

    I see this talking point repeated on this site from time to time and I’m never entirely convinced by it. Partly by the fact that in my own anecdotal experience, I don’t know anyone among my family and black/Asian friends who actually sees government ministers as ‘role models’ or who are actually looking to political figures as examples of what success looks like. Even among my own family members who vote Tory, I’ve never actually heard them speak about Priti Patel or Kwasi Kwarteng as a role models. They may agree with them and sympathise with their politics but they don’t actually look up to them.

    I also think this idea that because the cabinet has ethnic minorities in some of the major offices of state = ethnic minorities will start voting Tory in their droves misunderstands why ethnic minorities have mostly voted Labour. It’s oddly a form of identity politics, which is weird given how much the right claim to dislike it.
    I expect that upward mobility explains why Indian voters have begun moving over to the Conservatives in a significant way.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    Leon said:

    It’s a pretty boring, worthy, well-meaning speech with the odd good line or story - the exciting stuff is the heckling. Hard to say if that plays well or badly for Labour. It makes Labour look mad, but makes Starmer look resilient.

    He is doing it very well. Emotional stuff. Excellent use of tone and volume. He has been very well rehearsed imho.
    vacuous
    Earnest yet vacuous
  • Leon said:

    Bit disingenuous there. Claiming he was shocked when he found out 98% of rape cases don't end in a criminal conviction.

    What was he doing all that time he was DPP and head of the CPS?

    These have been the same numbers for years. Did he not know what was going on when he was the man responsible for prosecutions?

    Yes, that was an outright lie
    The man has never had any honesty so we shouldn't be surprised.

    He's a chameleon who'll say whatever he thinks is best to further his own career.
  • Bit disingenuous there. Claiming he was shocked when he found out 98% of rape cases don't end in a criminal conviction.

    What was he doing all that time he was DPP and head of the CPS?

    These have been the same numbers for years. Did he not know what was going on when he was the man responsible for prosecutions?

    I thought he was referring to his time as DPP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    Weaker now
  • there's solid sentiments but theres not much actually here at the moment.
  • DavidL said:

    My plan of waiting until Wednesday to fill up worked out perfectly. Drew up to Tesco's about 10 minutes ago and filled my tank. No restrictions, no queue (indeed most of the pumps didn't even have a car at them) and £1.33 a litre.
    Get back in the car and SKS is saying that you can't go far without finding a petrol station out of fuel and a somewhat contrived comment along the lines of "level up, you can't even fill up".

    So, is Dundee particularly fortunate in its fuel supplies or does SKS live in a fantasy land?

    Very patchy. One part of London near me with no problems, living apparently in a blissful, sunny early autumn paradise, another not much further away with tempers frayed and angry people.
    Well that's ok then......

    Back to no problems, nothing to see here. (sarcastic)

    :neutral:
    Small petrol station just down the road from my flat in Acton, west London. It’s been absolute mayhem since it restocked with fuel about 24 hours ago. The queue was right down the road when I got up shortly after 6am this morning. Things have not improved since.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    Foolish to re-tell a rather good joke by Boris
  • Veering a bit too much into lawyer mode here now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Starmer’s time as DPP is very much fair game.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350

    Veering a bit too much into lawyer mode here now.

    Yes this is pretty feeble stuff
  • Yes, yes we know you have a very important job ages ago....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,162
    edited September 2021

    He is giving an excellent speech and it is upto labour now to rid themselves of Corbyn and his supporters to gain the support they need

    It won't work that way for Labour, although I can understand many here on PB would prefer it were so. The historical context simply isn't 1983 or 1987 ; he needs to keep a fair proportion of the left onboard, *and* attract new and returning support from the centre and even centre-right.

    Much of this speech is well-delivered so far, incidentally, I think.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,350
    The anti Boris stuff really weak and misjudged
This discussion has been closed.