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Will the panickers stop panicking when their tanks are full? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453

    Scott_xP said:

    Gina Miller is launching a new political party which will be called True & Fair https://www.trueandfair.uk/

    The anti-Brexit campaigner says: "This Government needs to be held to account. Voters deserve better than the current politics of incompetence and self-interest."

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1442389527818027008

    Oh for God's sake.

    How many times: We don't have PR in this country, so you are utterly wasting your time.
    I sort of agree, but sort of don't. This one won't do it, but given the taboo surrounding even uttering the word Brexit despite most of the visions of project fear unfolding before our eyes there needs to be some kind of electoral protest party out there to keep pressure on the opposition. Farage in his various guises played the exact same part with stunning success from the right. Of course Gina Miller isn't Farage, and we already have the Lib Dems and (with somewhat more success in FPTP) the SNP able to play that role.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195

    Someone should genuinely found this


    Though with Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox telling the media yesterday that the advantage of Brexit is that it enables us to be able to fix the problems caused by Brexit, Leapoards Eating Faces party may just be the Conservatives.

    It was UKIP

    Their actions have demonstrated beyond question just exactly how dependent the UK is (and just how badly Brexit has fucked us)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,455
    edited September 2021

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    If there are no implications, I would decide on Wednesday :-) . It may have eased by then.

    On reflection, wasn't @Big_G_NorthWales saying that his boss only drives 165 miles a year?

    So go via Llandudno with a piece of hose, and no one will notice your crime for weeks :smile:
  • Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    No. I think motorway service stations will always have fuel, though you'll obviously pay a bit more for it.
    No, you will be ripped off. All motorway fuel.is a rip.off
    Motorway fuel is indeed a rip-off, but at least they'll have fuel and there's unlikely to be queues. That may be worth paying extra to OKC.
    I always fill up before a long journey. Fortunately my excellent car has a range of over 600 miles so I can outdrive any of the rip off merchants. I accept in times of crisis one might have to walk on the dark side for a moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    tlg86 said:

    Can someone explain why SPD + Union is as long as 10 on Betfair? Are the big two desperate not to work with each other again?

    The CDU guy on R4 now, seems to be ruling it out by implication
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    darkage said:

    With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

    The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

    There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

    Agree. Except that the Angela Rayners are right to oppose the economic exploitation, but wrong if they suggest that the wastrel worthless faux academia industry in non subjects for not very bright people should continue.

    Properly fund proper academia and ditch the rest.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,917
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,055

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    Can you approach the N Wales trip stepwise? incrementally? what's the word? - heading thataway and seeing how well fuelled you can remain as you go, with aborting as an option? It's not a yes/no, geographical South Pole sort of call.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    TimS said:

    I sort of agree, but sort of don't. This one won't do it, but given the taboo surrounding even uttering the word Brexit despite most of the visions of project fear unfolding before our eyes there needs to be some kind of electoral protest party out there to keep pressure on the opposition.

    The taboo is breaking.

    The Express headline today is "Don't blame Brexit" and I think IDS penned a Telegraph column with the same line

    Pathetic whiny pleading from the architects suggests that they think people are in fact joining the dots...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polish truck driver on @bbc5live nailing it right now: making visas available assumes there is a queue of people desperate to come over here and take on a job for three months. "You can't turn migrant workers on and off like a tap" #PetrolShortages
    https://twitter.com/anngripper/status/1442373371786764293

    The head of the European Road Haulers Association (UETR) has said EU drivers have no interest in returning to the UK where they are
    "Not welcome except when England is desperate"

    https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1442006207334649858

    Then companies will need to pay local workers a good salary to make them take the job. A million qualified drivers apparently should be well more than enough.

    Though it's worth noting that many people do take temp jobs in the lead up to Christmas. If eg a Romanian driver thinks they can do 3 months in the UK and earn more than they could at home for a year or two in that time, that may be very tempting.
    It would appear that they have reacted to be imprisoned at Marston airport last year and decided they aren't coming at any price.
    No. It would appear that one alleged Polish driver phoned up Radio 5.

    Who is presumably working here.
    We shall see. I would be surprised if this driver was the exception and we see a flood of happy truckers coming in happy to be back.

    That is when the visas are actually available. Which could be several weeks according to The Times.

    There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

    In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

    We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

    We panicked early, on Thursday night, as we had under half a tank. We should be ok for 2 weeks now. If lots of others are in the same position then hopefully stocks can be rebuilt.

    If we'd waited til this week to fill up we might have struggled to find any. Not sure about the local supermarkets but a lot of garages on my wife's drive to work are taped off.
    Because there isn't a shortage of fuel, now we have passed the initial panic it's unlikely to come back. Even if all the people who panic filled their tanks decide to queue again for a 10l top-up that won't threaten availability much.

    It would take a massive change in behaviour - everyone suddenly doing long trips for no reason - for there to be a shortage.

    As for journalists, this was a Twitter and Facebook storm. I found out there was a problem on social media, not in the newspapers.
    I think there's a fault in your reasoning here.

    Remember, the initial panic was caused by media reports of a few stations actually running out of fuel. Why did they run out of fuel? It's reasonable to assume that they ran out of fuel because fuel deliveries hadn't quite been keeping up with sales. If this is correct, then the shortages would have continued to gradually worsen even without panic buying. The media reports and consequent panic buying merely accelerated the process.

    This means that the only ways to resume normality are to either reduce demand (which will probably happen automatically as people try to avoid unnecessary journeys) or to increase supply (which is why the government is trying to recuit extra drivers). There is, however, a substantial hysteresis effect to overcome. People will tend to keep their tanks fuller than otherwise, so supply needs to exceed demand by a substantial margin for a while if we are to return to normal quickly.
    A few filling stations in Kent ran out of fuel after one Hoyer depot lost drivers. There were no deliveries hence them running out. There may have been a few localised shortages - for only some brands of fuel - but nothing nationwide.

    As supplies are largely normal, assuming that people don;t start doing unplanned 300 mile trips consumption will also be normal. Which means after the initial demand surge of fill your tank, the best the queue can do is top tanks off. Which means a queue but no shortage. Once "no shortage" sinks in there will be no queue.
    But while many drivers' tanks are now full, many service stations have empty tanks. By the time they've filled them up again, the drivers will have used their tanks and be back for more. Rinse and repeat.
    No they won't - unless the majority of drivers drain their tanks every 2-3 days.
    Which assumes that the refineries can restock all of the nations services stations in 2-3 days.
    Therein lies the problem. If a tanker driver has a normal daily schedule of say 20 drops, but in order to restock now needs 40 drops a day. How many more drops can he get in without exceeding driver hours. I would say 2 max So the driver will need ten days to complete his shortfall.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,307

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Polling says that those people are blaming Boris, though.
  • IanB2 said:

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    I doubt it - but the more interesting point is that you are considering it.

    My mother's 90th birthday lunch is this week and we have already had a couple of cancellations from people not willing to risk driving because of the fuel crisis

    So it is now affecting real decisions about people's lives
    Quite. My mother is almost 93 and in v poor health. Until the loons settle down all my fuel such as it is, is reserved for visits to my Mum.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Combined share of the SPD and Union over the last six elections...

    2002 - 77.0%
    2005 - 69.4%
    2009 - 56.8%
    2013 - 67.2%
    2017 - 53.4%
    2021 - 49.8%

    Does that mean that SDP/CDU is short of a majority or does the "wasted" votes on those who didn't reach the threshold get them over the line?
    According to Wiki, they are comfortably over the threshold with 402 seats (368 needed for a majority):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_German_federal_election#Preliminary_results

    I never thought it had much of a chance, but worth noting that SPD + Green + Die Linke = 363, leaving it five short of a majority.

    The media are calling the Greens kingmakers. I actually think it's the FDP that will decide the outcome.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,903

    RE German Elections:

    My instinct says Scholz will probably push for a reverse 'grand coalition' with the CDU, as an SPD/Green coalition isn't enough for a majority, and the FDP seem (economically at least) to the right of the CDU/CSU.

    I don't think so - difficult to spend an election campaigning against someone, win handsomely, and then invite them into a coalition. The FDP and Greens have different priorities but not totally conflicting ones - the Greens are centrist on economics (and frankly barely interested) but want lots of green initiatives, the FDP are classic (i.e. right-wing, as you say) liberals on econimics and agnostic on greenery (and similarly barely interested). Neither of them have indulged in the culture war nonsense, and they were both being polite about each other last night. An SPD/Green/FDP coalition looks natural. You can still get 1.37 odds for it on Betfair. You can get 10 on Rob's bet if you want a saver. None of the other possibilities look at all likely.
    It's always difficult to read messages from fragmented electoral results, but doesn't the most accurate reading from the German people seem to be "we'd like more of the same please, but with Scholz as chancellor instead of the other chap?"
    I think you can't ignore the Green surge, even if it fell short of what seemed likely at one point. The "not very big 2" getting together to rule would look dated immediately. On paper a grand SPD/CDU/Green coalition would work better, but I'd have thought the FDP claim on a small share of government was much better than the CDU claim on a big share after a disastrous result.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    Interesting re fuel. Yesterday on a trip I would say that approx 80% of petrol stations on the midlands stretch of the A1 were cordoned off no fuel.

    So what should people do - wait for it to blow over (3-10 days?) and carry on as normal or go seek petrol now because if they have six days of fuel left they are at significant risk.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195

    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    There is no fuel crisis.

    We just suspended competition law, drafted in the army, and are in emergency talks to stop the imminent collapse of the Stanwell Oil Refinery for a laugh

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1442225732369928194

    How many countries that "have, er, not Brexited" have mobilised the Army and suspended their laws?

    Twat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144
    IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    Can you approach the N Wales trip stepwise? incrementally? what's the word? - heading thataway and seeing how well fuelled you can remain as you go, with aborting as an option? It's not a yes/no, geographical South Pole sort of call.
    What the military call “Bingo Fuel” - the point at which, no matter what else is happening with your mission, you MUST abort and head straight back to base.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,357

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Combined share of the SPD and Union over the last six elections...

    2002 - 77.0%
    2005 - 69.4%
    2009 - 56.8%
    2013 - 67.2%
    2017 - 53.4%
    2021 - 49.8%

    Does that mean that SDP/CDU is short of a majority or does the "wasted" votes on those who didn't reach the threshold get them over the line?
    Yes, they're over the line for that reason. Still won't form a government though IMO.
    I think the CDU need a bit of time in opposition and to acknowledge that they have lost but their leadership doesn't seem to reflect that. Since both their respective leaders ran as continuity Merkel it does seem as if a program for government wouldn't be the hardest thing to achieve.

    A prolonged period of uncertainty in the EU's largest country would not be helpful, especially with Le sulk still going on next door.
  • Sandpit said:

    Police swarm to the scene after eco-mob Insulate Britain defy a court order and block access to the M25 near Heathrow.

    Read more: https://l-bc.co/3oaXZDV


    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1442390083362037767?s=20

    Ooh, might we now see some actual prison sentences, for people acting in contempt of court?
    I do hope so. These nutters need to be taught a lesson
  • Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    I sort of agree, but sort of don't. This one won't do it, but given the taboo surrounding even uttering the word Brexit despite most of the visions of project fear unfolding before our eyes there needs to be some kind of electoral protest party out there to keep pressure on the opposition.

    The taboo is breaking.

    The Express headline today is "Don't blame Brexit" and I think IDS penned a Telegraph column with the same line

    Pathetic whiny pleading from the architects suggests that they think people are in fact joining the dots...
    And psychologically foolish.

    It's like saying "don't think of an elephant"... Inevitably you have nothing but pachyderms in your head.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,410

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    We actually had a much worse fuel crisis twenty years ago when we were in the EU, and before that in 1973 when we had just joined the Common Market. So if fuel crises are anything to go by, I'd say we're better off out.
    Logic so devoid of any reality it is almost impossible to counteract.

    Time for work.
    I agree, but give Scott a break. He's obviously desperate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,357
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    Well as of today, in my case, she is right. 60th birthday today so I qualify for a bus pass, apparently. Bizarre.
    Happy Birthday David. Many more of them, please.
    Not too quickly though. Being 60 is a bit of a shock.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,307
    Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    I sort of agree, but sort of don't. This one won't do it, but given the taboo surrounding even uttering the word Brexit despite most of the visions of project fear unfolding before our eyes there needs to be some kind of electoral protest party out there to keep pressure on the opposition.

    The taboo is breaking.

    The Express headline today is "Don't blame Brexit" and I think IDS penned a Telegraph column with the same line

    Pathetic whiny pleading from the architects suggests that they think people are in fact joining the dots...
    I saw that headline in the newsagent this morning, and thought it was a monumental own-goal. Putting "blame" and "Brexit" on a huge headline in the middle of a... shall we call it a distribution crisis?... looks like self trolling.

    Ok, I'm sure the article will set out some arguments, but almost everyone who goes to the papers section isn't buying the Express, so the headline is all they'll see.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    What's interesting about the M25 protests is that they'd be much more effective if they used vehicles like the fuel tax protests of 2000. But I guess the real aim of the protests is to have images of police officers manperson-handling them and dragging them away.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited September 2021
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    The decision to back, rather than abstain on the deal, was very poor politics, as I thought at the time. It would have given him much more leeway in exactly situations like these to continue with the line that he wasn't opposing Brexit per se, but the type of Brexit. Now he could be shouting from the rooftops about "the government's incompetent mess of Brexit" , in the way you describe, with much fewer problems.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    I sort of agree, but sort of don't. This one won't do it, but given the taboo surrounding even uttering the word Brexit despite most of the visions of project fear unfolding before our eyes there needs to be some kind of electoral protest party out there to keep pressure on the opposition.

    The taboo is breaking.

    The Express headline today is "Don't blame Brexit" and I think IDS penned a Telegraph column with the same line

    Pathetic whiny pleading from the architects suggests that they think people are in fact joining the dots...
    I saw that headline in the newsagent this morning, and thought it was a monumental own-goal. Putting "blame" and "Brexit" on a huge headline in the middle of a... shall we call it a distribution crisis?... looks like self trolling.

    Ok, I'm sure the article will set out some arguments, but almost everyone who goes to the papers section isn't buying the Express, so the headline is all they'll see.
    A bit like any minister using the word "panic".

    Why are we even having a conversation wherein panic is an appropriate response in whatever guise or context.
  • TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    The only shortage of fuel is at petrol stations and in the tanks of people's cars. There is plenty of fuel in all other locations! This is not a fuel shortage and this not-a-fuel shortage is nothing to do with Brexit!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    Can you approach the N Wales trip stepwise? incrementally? what's the word? - heading thataway and seeing how well fuelled you can remain as you go, with aborting as an option? It's not a yes/no, geographical South Pole sort of call.
    That's a possibility, although the current plan involves moving between several sets of relatives; relatives whom we haven't physically seen for quite a while.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478
    MikeL said:

    Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

    She looks better than Starmer
  • Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    We had a much worse fuel crisis twenty years ago when we were in the EU, and before that in 1973 when we had just joined the Common Market. So by your own measure, we're better off out.
    A very false equivalence. Those fuel crisis were not exacerbated by anything related to our membership or otherwise of EU/EEC. This crisis has been made worse by government not foreseeing the challenges caused by turning off part of the labour supply. I think Brexit is pointless, but it isn't, per se, the cause, but it is a significant contributory factor because of how the government has pushed through "hard" Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    Well as of today, in my case, she is right. 60th birthday today so I qualify for a bus pass, apparently. Bizarre.
    Happy Birthday David. Many more of them, please.
    Not too quickly though. Being 60 is a bit of a shock.
    It's a bit like the definition of rich being those having more money than me. The definition of old is people older than me. Not me. No siree.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,055

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    It's like drowning. There is no oxygen shortage, the oxygen is just inconveniently bound up with hydrogen.
  • DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    Well as of today, in my case, she is right. 60th birthday today so I qualify for a bus pass, apparently. Bizarre.
    Happy Birthday David. Many more of them, please.
    Not too quickly though. Being 60 is a bit of a shock.
    It's funny - I had a work colleague a decade younger than myself - while I was unfazed by turning 60, the thought that they'd turned 50 struck me as shocking!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    We had a much worse fuel crisis twenty years ago when we were in the EU, and before that in 1973 when we had just joined the Common Market. So by your own measure, we're better off out.
    On this topic, Labour, as well as Tories have a difficulty. Everyone knows that Starmer believed passionately in the EU, FOM and both the politics and economics of ever closer union.

    The moment an issue arises like this one, which is obviously relatable to Brexit, Labour can't say what they would naturally say: this is caused by lack of FOM, let's go back to it.

    A longer issue is this; as long as SKS in his heart believes in rejoin, will the electorate prefer in government the party that believes in what we have done, or the party that obviously doesn't but can't do anything about it?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,633

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    The government saying there is no crisis is one of the principle causes of the crisis. Blaming the people is never a good look either.
  • malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

    She looks better than Starmer
    Says the man who still (in spite of everything that is known about him) supports the fat little toad known as "Wee Eck" . Such a great judge of character you are Malc lol.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    Let's revise the numbers again.

    Our apparent shortage: 100,000.

    Of which,

    50,000 residual have had it for years have evidently lived with it.
    25,000 fewer tests Covid.
    25,000 Brexit we got the foreigners to go home.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    Well as of today, in my case, she is right. 60th birthday today so I qualify for a bus pass, apparently. Bizarre.
    Happy Birthday David. Many more of them, please.
    Not too quickly though. Being 60 is a bit of a shock.
    Happy Birthday old man!
  • geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    in due course, some broadly centrist parties will get together, which is what most Germans like to see. I expect most Brits would like it too if I'm honest.
    And it's what they end up doing - IDS' Conservatives never stood a chance, neither did Corbyn's Labour - and despite the heated rhetoric of their critics, Johnson's Tories are pretty centrist - and Starmer also appears to have got the same message.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    edited September 2021

    geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    That's an odd view, which I've not seen expressed in any of the German commentaries from right to left. The Germans don't see anything especially disturbing about the result - in due course, some broadly centrist parties will get together, which is what most Germans like to see. I expect most Brits would like it too if I'm honest.
    I tend to think PR and FPTP have their plusses and minuses. What's interesting is that once again the logical outcome is another grand coalition, but that would be three on the trot. The polling on coalitions suggests that most people will be upset with the outcome...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election#Preferred_coalition

    The German system wouldn't need to be too different to give SPD + Green a majority on a combined 40.5% of the vote. I think a bit of bias is a good thing if makes coalition forming easier.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,198
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    Can you approach the N Wales trip stepwise? incrementally? what's the word? - heading thataway and seeing how well fuelled you can remain as you go, with aborting as an option? It's not a yes/no, geographical South Pole sort of call.
    What the military call “Bingo Fuel” - the point at which, no matter what else is happening with your mission, you MUST abort and head straight back to base.
    Bingo is nearest diversion not RTB.

    It's also routinely ignored in times of war. Our night bingo was 3,800lbs on OEF. One the first night we plugged a KC-135 on the return leg over Pakistan with 1,900lbs! If anything had gone wrong with the tanker we would have never have made it to our diversion at Jacobabad. If it all turned to fuck our plan was to eject, steal a Datsun Sunny taxi, drive to Karachi and then steal a dhow.
  • TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Narrow minded people generally don't travel much
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,455
    edited September 2021

    eek said:

    I wouldn't call it persuasive....
    This video is an ad. Watch it and guess what it’s for. I’ll wait.
    https://twitter.com/gruber/status/1441457685644279819?s=20

    Spoiler - its actually 10 years old....but the attitude hasn't evolved...

    It’s also wrong.

    Most people are now tied into either the Apple or Android worlds. Forcing Apple to change its connector will mean people need to buy replacement cables when they upgraded their iPhone. It gets even worse if you use a wired headset you may need to replace that as well.

    And there is an obvious get out clause that apple will use, they will just remove all sockets from the iPhone and insist on wireless charging.
    That might be an argument had Apple not repeatedly changed their proprietary connector. The whole point about USB-C is that it is a standard. As Mrs RP just pointed out, it was even worse on laptops where even the same model from the same manufacturer could have different chargers from one year's generation to the next.

    USB-C means one charger and one connector for all devices.
    Hmmm. The proposal is a few years behind, too. I'd say that the main thing it will do is accelerate cableless phones.

    Interesting to see the confusion (deliberate?) between "phones" and "will eliminate the tangle of wires in your drawer".

    Do people really have enough current phones to have a tangle of wires?

    Mons. Thierry Breton also seems a little afaik loose with history:

    Companies will get two years to adapt to the new rules once they take effect. The rules would apply only to electronics sold in the European single market’s 30 countries, but, like the EU’s strict privacy regulations, they could end up becoming a de facto standard for the rest of the world.

    That's reached the USA, China, India, Russia and Japan?

    Having been skeptical, demolishing any walls round Apple's garden has to be a good thing.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,357

    geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    That's an odd view, which I've not seen expressed in any of the German commentaries from right to left. The Germans don't see anything especially disturbing about the result - in due course, some broadly centrist parties will get together, which is what most Germans like to see. I expect most Brits would like it too if I'm honest.
    The current polls certainly seem to indicate that. Our broadly centrist government is pretty popular.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    OKC, I am sure motorway stations will not run out given the prices they charge, just make sure you get on one and fill it to the brim. Also you can just enjoy more time in Wales till it does down in event you look like running short. Once the tanks are full most people will not be back for a considerable time, it will be short lived.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    edited September 2021
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Since we retired and with the covid effect, the Mrs P. and I have done about 3,000 miles in total in the past year, across our three cars.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,357
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses are do you go looking for petrol.
    I am toughing it out. I have enough fuel to last until Wednesday and I am waiting until then.
  • TOPPING said:

    Let's revise the numbers again.

    Our apparent shortage: 100,000.

    Of which,

    50,000 residual have had it for years have evidently lived with it.
    25,000 fewer tests Covid.
    25,000 Brexit we got the foreigners to go home.

    Well of the over a million vacancies there are only 47k in the 'transport and storage' sector:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53685650

    And is there any evidence that 'foreigners have gone home' given that the number working is higher than it was a year ago or two years ago or five years ago.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,535
    On the other fuel crisis...

    May be old news now, but our Avro account is apparently going ot Octopus (wording suggests it will be all Avro customers, but not sure whether that's the case). Could be worse, have used them before,* so it's not certain that we'll be off rather than staying with them.

    *Once in an old house they were fine, in our present house the were repeatedly getting confused that we have an economy 7 meter but did not want to be on an economy 7 tariff. We'll see whether they get their heads round it this time.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Since we retired and with the covid effect, the Mrs P. and I have done about 3,000 miles in total in the past year, across our three cars.
    Not a question directed at you but good to know. :smile:

    I am interested in the weekly mileage of those shouting loudest about there being no fuel shortage.
  • Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    The government saying there is no crisis is one of the principle causes of the crisis. Blaming the people is never a good look either.
    The principle cause of the crisis is the media and the idiocy of people. One week ago there was no fuel shortage. Last Monday there was not a single post on this site about a petrol shortage. Nothing has changed in the fuel supply system in this Country since then other than the media saying there is a fuel shortage and people being lemmings.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,198
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses are do you go looking for petrol.
    Relax, Grant Shapps and the hamster that sits on top of his head are in charge of sorting it all out. That shit is handled.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,570
    A poultry farmer pointed out that he and his competitors did invest in training his staff, but as a large number of them are now blocked from working for him due to Brexit, he has to reduce production to match the staffing available to him.

    The key point, I think, is that the previously willing staff are blocked from working and there is no indigenous willing replacement for them. So the shortages will be endemic. As far as possible imports will replace previous domestic production, while lorry drivers are needed and will do OK.

    The crisis will subside, to be replaced by continuous low level shortages.
  • RE German Elections:

    My instinct says Scholz will probably push for a reverse 'grand coalition' with the CDU, as an SPD/Green coalition isn't enough for a majority, and the FDP seem (economically at least) to the right of the CDU/CSU.

    I don't think so - difficult to spend an election campaigning against someone, win handsomely, and then invite them into a coalition. The FDP and Greens have different priorities but not totally conflicting ones - the Greens are centrist on economics (and frankly barely interested) but want lots of green initiatives, the FDP are classic (i.e. right-wing, as you say) liberals on econimics and agnostic on greenery (and similarly barely interested). Neither of them have indulged in the culture war nonsense, and they were both being polite about each other last night. An SPD/Green/FDP coalition looks natural. You can still get 1.37 odds for it on Betfair. You can get 10 on Rob's bet if you want a saver. None of the other possibilities look at all likely.
    It's always difficult to read messages from fragmented electoral results, but doesn't the most accurate reading from the German people seem to be "we'd like more of the same please, but with Scholz as chancellor instead of the other chap?"
    I think you can't ignore the Green surge, even if it fell short of what seemed likely at one point. The "not very big 2" getting together to rule would look dated immediately. On paper a grand SPD/CDU/Green coalition would work better, but I'd have thought the FDP claim on a small share of government was much better than the CDU claim on a big share after a disastrous result.
    The CDU should leave government.

    It may be disputable who has 'won' but the CDU have certainly lost.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses are do you go looking for petrol.
    I am toughing it out. I have enough fuel to last until Wednesday and I am waiting until then.
    Good call. So two days - you are betting that it will be fine in 48 hrs. V much hope so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    OT (ish). I was having dinner in a busy restaurant near Nice last night and at an adjoining table were two women one English the other American. Both well dressed and in their 40's. The English one left the table presumably to go to the 'ladies' and it was clear to me that she was drunk.

    She staggered past other diners using their chairs for occasional support. The French excel at seeing only what they want to which is why I seemed to be the only person smiling.

    Minutes later she arrived back at her table sat down and loudly vomited all over the floor. The restaurateur was there in seconds and gave her a tongue lashing the like of which I haven't heard from a restaurant owner before. He yelled in crackly English 'get out of my restaurant!' followed by some indecipherable French. The diners were gripped!

    The French are going to miss us being part of their club






  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,357
    TOPPING said:

    Let's revise the numbers again.

    Our apparent shortage: 100,000.

    Of which,

    50,000 residual have had it for years have evidently lived with it.
    25,000 fewer tests Covid.
    25,000 Brexit we got the foreigners to go home.

    What would be helpful would be to know how many of the 6m with leave to remain are actually here. But the government hasn't got a clue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Narrow minded people generally don't travel much
    Narrow minded people generally don't realise that driving a car is not the only way to travel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TOPPING said:

    Let's revise the numbers again.

    Our apparent shortage: 100,000.

    Of which,

    50,000 residual have had it for years have evidently lived with it.
    25,000 fewer tests Covid.
    25,000 Brexit we got the foreigners to go home.

    Well of the over a million vacancies there are only 47k in the 'transport and storage' sector:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53685650

    And is there any evidence that 'foreigners have gone home' given that the number working is higher than it was a year ago or two years ago or five years ago.
    More or less seemed to think so.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000z6cd
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

    The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

    There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

    So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

    And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?
    For all of the flap, the change in tuition fees was a positive step in allowing poorer students access. Instead of fees up front it was hypothecated fees when earning.

    The issue was funding for universities. With the government contribution to uni teaching cut by 78%, we've seen institutions both get it in the neck for charging the "maximum" £9k a year and offering poor tuition due to a lack of money.

    Anyway, think what these £9k fees are. Instead of the government handing money to the universities, it hands it to student loans who pay it to universities. We know that in this era of bankism debt is an asset. How much "asset" was added to bank balance sheets in this way? a very quiet way to keep injecting cash into a broken banking system.
    And the funding comes down to the idea that 50% of kids need to go to university. IMV that was always an insane target, and has massively skewed expectations, education and the jobs market.

    IMV everything else leads on from that.
    Except that sort of figure for Tertiary education is the norm in nearly all competitor economies. It reaches 69% in South Korea. Italy and Germany are the exceptions in the developed world.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_education_attainment

    Maybe Britons are thicker than other nations, but that doesn't bode well for the future.

    The problem perhaps is more the poor quality of many courses, particularly in terms of contact time with students, so little value added.

    I think that the cost of Tertiary education is quite inflated in Britain by two factors: Universities use undergraduate fees to subsidise other things, and second that British students want to live a good lifestyle away from home. Few go to nearby Universities. The student loan system barely covers rent, and not even close to that in London and a number of other cities.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,455
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    I think you need to explain to her that "daddy-o" is a term that people used to use to sound "hip" in the late 1950s.

    It wouldn't surprise me if Blossom Dearie had a song about it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daddy-O


  • Scott_xP said:

    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    There is no fuel crisis.

    We just suspended competition law, drafted in the army, and are in emergency talks to stop the imminent collapse of the Stanwell Oil Refinery for a laugh

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1442225732369928194

    How many countries that "have, er, not Brexited" have mobilised the Army and suspended their laws?

    Twat.
    We havent mobilised the army. Twat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,633

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    The government saying there is no crisis is one of the principle causes of the crisis. Blaming the people is never a good look either.
    The principle cause of the crisis is the media and the idiocy of people. One week ago there was no fuel shortage. Last Monday there was not a single post on this site about a petrol shortage. Nothing has changed in the fuel supply system in this Country since then other than the media saying there is a fuel shortage and people being lemmings.
    The principle cause of the crisis is a lack of confidence.
  • Well I drove past seven filling stations yesterday after 5pm and all of them had fuel.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825
    FF43 said:

    A poultry farmer pointed out that he and his competitors did invest in training his staff, but as a large number of them are now blocked from working for him due to Brexit, he has to reduce production to match the staffing available to him.

    The key point, I think, is that the previously willing staff are blocked from working and there is no indigenous willing replacement for them. So the shortages will be endemic. As far as possible imports will replace previous domestic production, while lorry drivers are needed and will do OK.

    The crisis will subside, to be replaced by continuous low level shortages.

    Given that anyone in Britain prior to 31/12/2020 could apply for pre-settled status, I'm at a complete loss as to the excuse he is using because they shouldn't be at all blocked from working for him.

    The reality is the staff went back "home" and don't want to return.
  • RE German Elections:

    My instinct says Scholz will probably push for a reverse 'grand coalition' with the CDU, as an SPD/Green coalition isn't enough for a majority, and the FDP seem (economically at least) to the right of the CDU/CSU.

    I don't think so - difficult to spend an election campaigning against someone, win handsomely, and then invite them into a coalition. The FDP and Greens have different priorities but not totally conflicting ones - the Greens are centrist on economics (and frankly barely interested) but want lots of green initiatives, the FDP are classic (i.e. right-wing, as you say) liberals on econimics and agnostic on greenery (and similarly barely interested). Neither of them have indulged in the culture war nonsense, and they were both being polite about each other last night. An SPD/Green/FDP coalition looks natural. You can still get 1.37 odds for it on Betfair. You can get 10 on Rob's bet if you want a saver. None of the other possibilities look at all likely.
    It's always difficult to read messages from fragmented electoral results, but doesn't the most accurate reading from the German people seem to be "we'd like more of the same please, but with Scholz as chancellor instead of the other chap?"
    I think you can't ignore the Green surge, even if it fell short of what seemed likely at one point. The "not very big 2" getting together to rule would look dated immediately. On paper a grand SPD/CDU/Green coalition would work better, but I'd have thought the FDP claim on a small share of government was much better than the CDU claim on a big share after a disastrous result.
    The CDU should leave government.

    It may be disputable who has 'won' but the CDU have certainly lost.
    On that basis the SPD would never have gone into coalition with the CDU in 2005 as junior partners, but that's exactly what ended up happening (eventually).

    Green voters strongly preference the SPD, and voters of the FDP strongly preference the CDU/CSU. Given that's an very difficult square to circle, I still think a SPD led grand coalition is a great value bet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    The government saying there is no crisis is one of the principle causes of the crisis. Blaming the people is never a good look either.
    The principle cause of the crisis is the media and the idiocy of people. One week ago there was no fuel shortage. Last Monday there was not a single post on this site about a petrol shortage. Nothing has changed in the fuel supply system in this Country since then other than the media saying there is a fuel shortage and people being lemmings.
    The principle cause of the crisis is a lack of confidence.
    Yeah, a lack of confidence in a government that says "Don't Panic, nothing to see here".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    No. I think motorway service stations will always have fuel, though you'll obviously pay a bit more for it.
    No, you will be ripped off. All motorway fuel.is a rip.off
    Would you rather break down in the middle of nowhere or pay the princely sum of an extra 5 or 6 pounds for petrol. Unless you are tighter than a duck's arse in the winter then you will part with an extra fiver.
  • Well I drove past seven filling stations yesterday after 5pm and all of them had fuel.

    More noticeably to me was how many fields were planted with maize.

    I know from the union jack packaged produce that the south coast counties have been growing it for years but it seems to have really taken off recently in Yorks and Notts.
  • geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    Somewhat tempered by knowing we have the DUP.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
    My car probably has fuel for 50 miles in it. As it will take a few days for stations to be refilled and I don't need it today I will set off tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday to try and find some fuel.

    Facebook will probably tell me when things arrive but I'm not in any hurry provided a have it before Saturday.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Narrow minded people generally don't travel much
    Narrow minded people generally don't realise that driving a car is not the only way to travel.
    LOL. It is when it is.

    But good point otherwise, those cycle lanes on the A1(M) are full to brimming.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,120
    MattW said:

    darkage said:



    If you take the view that educa

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

    The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

    There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

    So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

    And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?
    You are comparing student loans to a car loan; so it is really a false comparison. Student loans are there to facilitate higher education, which has a wider societal benefit that goes beyond other consumer goods; and for which there are a longstanding principle of access for all based on merit, secured by government intervention in the market.

    Personally, I have no objection to the principle of paying for higher education. However, the government should not under any circumstances be able to profit from it, as it is now doing, under a system of loans administered by the government through taxation.
    Is it, though?

    Since they get back only a fraction (50%?) of the loans in repayment it's hardly profiting.

    It's about raising money for HE, and making a decision where funds should come from, and with what balance between the sources lies.

    Clearly the "it should all be free" position is untenable where 30 or 40% go to University, where it was when only a few % went to University.

    I agree that the interest rate at inflation is stupid - not least because it makes the 'student loan' bigger every year in a lot of cases. Should be at rpi, or arguably cpi.
    On your first point, I don't agree - I would say that they are profiteering from the people who pay the loans back. Why should they be subsidising those who aren't going to be in a position to repay?

    In my own case, I took out a loan in the early 2000's, I have earned above the average wage in the intervening time but it still took me 13 years to pay it back. Were the loan to have been under the post 2010 terms, I doubt I would have ever paid it back in my working life: I would just be paying a 9% tax indefinetly, to fund those who got stuck at the £20 k wage mark, which a lot of graduates are.

    The loans should be made at cost to the government. A better approach would be to stop funding courses that do not lead to employment unless there is some real societal value in them; in which cases they should be highly competitive and completely subsidised.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195

    We havent mobilised the army.

    Read a newspaper
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    edited September 2021

    Well I drove past seven filling stations yesterday after 5pm and all of them had fuel.

    When I checked our cars yesterday we had plenty of fuel in them. Checked again today - no change.

    Phew!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144
    edited September 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
    The answer is, it depends on what those six days of fuel are for.

    If I’m spending the next six days taking a sick relative to their chemotherapy on the other side of the country, then yes I worry about fuel. I’ll drive around all night and brim the 75 litre tank at every opportunity.

    If I’m spending the next six days driving to the office, or to meet friends, then I’m not too worried, if I run out, I’ll work from home until everyone’s stopped panicking.

    Surely one thing we’ve all learned over the past 18 months, is that life can be lived remotely when required.

    Personally, I live about 15 miles from the office. A tank will last about three weeks if I don’t go anywhere else.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825

    geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    Somewhat tempered by knowing we have the DUP.
    Northern Ireland is however the politics of a completely different world. Where religion trumps everything else.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    Well as of today, in my case, she is right. 60th birthday today so I qualify for a bus pass, apparently. Bizarre.
    A very happy birthday to you. Bus passes are very useful, under normal circumstances.
    @DavidL
    Happy Birthday David. Have to say even though years ahead of you neither I or my wife have got bus pass yet. I rarely if ever take the bus and if I did I would just pay.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,455
    edited September 2021
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

    There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

    There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

    This is just madness. This is Sparta.

    You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either? ;)

    Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……
    Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.
    You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/
    No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

    Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

    She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.
    Blimey, I hope she doesn't read PB.
    She's 17, and thinks PB "is for old people, daddy-o".
    I think you need to explain to her that "daddy-o" is a term that people used to use to sound "hip" in the late 1950s.

    It wouldn't surprise me if Blossom Dearie had a song about it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daddy-O


    Turns out it was the Fontane Sisters in 1955 with the song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5C6u_8t_dM
  • eek said:

    FF43 said:

    A poultry farmer pointed out that he and his competitors did invest in training his staff, but as a large number of them are now blocked from working for him due to Brexit, he has to reduce production to match the staffing available to him.

    The key point, I think, is that the previously willing staff are blocked from working and there is no indigenous willing replacement for them. So the shortages will be endemic. As far as possible imports will replace previous domestic production, while lorry drivers are needed and will do OK.

    The crisis will subside, to be replaced by continuous low level shortages.

    Given that anyone in Britain prior to 31/12/2020 could apply for pre-settled status, I'm at a complete loss as to the excuse he is using because they shouldn't be at all blocked from working for him.

    The reality is the staff went back "home" and don't want to return.
    Or they didn't want to return to the crap jobs and crap pay they had previously.

    Many will have returned or will return and work in better jobs for better pay.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825
    Scott_xP said:

    We havent mobilised the army.

    Read a newspaper
    Has the army been sent in? The statement is that they will be and that will be may have provisos against it.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    The cornerstone of any nutritious breakfast


    EXCLUSIVE: Keir Starmer is fired up for day three of Labour conference, fuelled by… FISH AND CHEESE

    More of this vital journalism on @TimesRadio from 10am live from Brighton


    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1442392346889539585?s=21
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
    My car probably has fuel for 50 miles in it. As it will take a few days for stations to be refilled and I don't need it today I will set off tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday to try and find some fuel.

    Facebook will probably tell me when things arrive but I'm not in any hurry provided a have it before Saturday.
    It's interesting - because ofc the longer one leaves it the less wiggle room there is to find a station.

    My point is, cf queuing outside Northern Rock, it is eminently rational for people to "panic buy" in such circumstances.

    Unless of course you are sitting in your garden looking out over a charming vista counting insects and not driving anywhere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466
    edited September 2021
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Since we retired and with the covid effect, the Mrs P. and I have done about 3,000 miles in total in the past year, across our three cars.
    Not a question directed at you but good to know. :smile:

    I am interested in the weekly mileage of those shouting loudest about there being no fuel shortage.
    There is no fuel shortage in the country. There is a (hopefully temporary) shortage at the pumps, triggered by the media, and then by panic buying. Interesting on the radio just now, the comment that once the 'run' starts, you are being rational to join the panic if you need fuel. This is the argument that @IshmaelZ was running with, and I understand it. I just wish the initial people weren't so selfish.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
    The answer is, it depends on what those six days of fuel are for.

    If I’m spending the next six days taking a sick relative to their chemotherapy on the other side of the country, then yes I worry about fuel. I’ll drive around all night and brim the 75 litre tank at every opportunity.

    If I’m spending the next six days driving to the office, or to meet friends, then I’m not too worried, if I run out, I’ll work from home until everyone’s stopped panicking.

    Surely one thing we’ve all learned over the past 18 months, is that life can be lived remotely when required.

    Personally, I live about 15 miles from the office. A tank will last about three weeks if I don’t go anywhere else.
    What we've learned from the past 18 months is that some jobs can't be done from home.

    "Driving to the office" when your office is a hospital ward of bus depot or...or...

    But yes to the majority of PBers it is all a fuss over nothing because we can retire to the study to do our work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,144
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning everybody. I wonder what the PB brains trust would advise. Mrs C and I are on holiday some 350 miles from home. We have, thanks to topping up when we arrived last Thursday, more than enough fuel to get home.
    However, part of the plans for the holiday include a week-long visit to N Wales, starting on Thursday, adding a further 275 or so miles to our trip.

    I am beginning to wonder; should we call off the N Wales leg?

    Can you approach the N Wales trip stepwise? incrementally? what's the word? - heading thataway and seeing how well fuelled you can remain as you go, with aborting as an option? It's not a yes/no, geographical South Pole sort of call.
    What the military call “Bingo Fuel” - the point at which, no matter what else is happening with your mission, you MUST abort and head straight back to base.
    Bingo is nearest diversion not RTB.

    It's also routinely ignored in times of war. Our night bingo was 3,800lbs on OEF. One the first night we plugged a KC-135 on the return leg over Pakistan with 1,900lbs! If anything had gone wrong with the tanker we would have never have made it to our diversion at Jacobabad. If it all turned to fuck our plan was to eject, steal a Datsun Sunny taxi, drive to Karachi and then steal a dhow.
    Might have guessed that our resident ace might have a story about having no fuel over somewhere inhospitable. ;)
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

    The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

    There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

    So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

    And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?
    For all of the flap, the change in tuition fees was a positive step in allowing poorer students access. Instead of fees up front it was hypothecated fees when earning.

    The issue was funding for universities. With the government contribution to uni teaching cut by 78%, we've seen institutions both get it in the neck for charging the "maximum" £9k a year and offering poor tuition due to a lack of money.

    Anyway, think what these £9k fees are. Instead of the government handing money to the universities, it hands it to student loans who pay it to universities. We know that in this era of bankism debt is an asset. How much "asset" was added to bank balance sheets in this way? a very quiet way to keep injecting cash into a broken banking system.
    And the funding comes down to the idea that 50% of kids need to go to university. IMV that was always an insane target, and has massively skewed expectations, education and the jobs market.

    IMV everything else leads on from that.
    Except that sort of figure for Tertiary education is the norm in nearly all competitor economies. It reaches 69% in South Korea. Italy and Germany are the exceptions in the developed world.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tertiary_education_attainment

    Maybe Britons are thicker than other nations, but that doesn't bode well for the future.

    The problem perhaps is more the poor quality of many courses, particularly in terms of contact time with students, so little value added.

    I think that the cost of Tertiary education is quite inflated in Britain by two factors: Universities use undergraduate fees to subsidise other things, and second that British students want to live a good lifestyle away from home. Few go to nearby Universities. The student loan system barely covers rent, and not even close to that in London and a number of other cities.
    Except tertiary education != universities. From your link;

    " The World Bank, for example, defines tertiary education as including universities as well as institutions that teach specific capacities of higher learning such as colleges, technical training institutes, community colleges, nursing schools, research laboratories, centers of excellence, and distance learning centers."

    That's where we're going wrong. Universities are just one strand of tertiary education, and yet they've grown to dominate. We'd be much better sorted with other types as well, in particular on-job training.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,633
    The governments messaging has been poor. "Don't panic! There is plenty of fuel in depots" is not the greatest message when the issue it is more difficult than usual to get fuel from depots to pumps.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    FF43 said:

    A poultry farmer pointed out that he and his competitors did invest in training his staff, but as a large number of them are now blocked from working for him due to Brexit, he has to reduce production to match the staffing available to him.

    The key point, I think, is that the previously willing staff are blocked from working and there is no indigenous willing replacement for them. So the shortages will be endemic. As far as possible imports will replace previous domestic production, while lorry drivers are needed and will do OK.

    The crisis will subside, to be replaced by continuous low level shortages.

    Yes, Christmas Turkeys are hatching now, 20% down on 2019, according to government statistics.



    Though it may be possible to import some to make up the shortfall. Indeed that is what I expect a number of industries to do, at least until we start checking imports at the border.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,570
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    A poultry farmer pointed out that he and his competitors did invest in training his staff, but as a large number of them are now blocked from working for him due to Brexit, he has to reduce production to match the staffing available to him.

    The key point, I think, is that the previously willing staff are blocked from working and there is no indigenous willing replacement for them. So the shortages will be endemic. As far as possible imports will replace previous domestic production, while lorry drivers are needed and will do OK.

    The crisis will subside, to be replaced by continuous low level shortages.

    Given that anyone in Britain prior to 31/12/2020 could apply for pre-settled status, I'm at a complete loss as to the excuse he is using because they shouldn't be at all blocked from working for him.

    The reality is the staff went back "home" and don't want to return.
    Because these are seasonal, but well trained, staff, aren't eligible for settled status and absent FoM aren't prepared to go through the bureaucratic hurdles of applying for whatever temporary visas are grudgingly made available.

    Whatever. UK producers will produce less. If we can't import the difference there will be shortages.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    edited September 2021
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Narrow minded people generally don't travel much
    Narrow minded people generally don't realise that driving a car is not the only way to travel.
    LOL. It is when it is.

    But good point otherwise, those cycle lanes on the A1(M) are full to brimming.
    When did the East Coast Main Line stop running? I missed that.

    I live in a small village, no public transport, so I know about how essential cars can be.

    But to equate driving few miles with being narrow-minded, as @Nigel_Foremain did is, er, very narrow-minded imho.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Fuel anecdote. Driving back from football yesterday, my friend was on the phone to his brother who had just managed to fill up. The person in front of him filled up two jerry cans. Whilst he was filling up, he heard the bloke next to him hit the clicker pretty quickly. So he had a look to see how much he had put in. £12.

    The numpties filling up with well over half a tank are obviously contributing to the traffic jams, but this will soon be over.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,410

    geoffw said:

    Poor Germany. What a relief to know we have fptp.

    Somewhat tempered by knowing we have the DUP.
    And the Scots Nats who are the biggest beneficiaries from FPTP.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825
    edited September 2021
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    Well quite.

    What it appears happened is that a single fuel distributor in Kent lost a few drivers to a rival, which caused a handful of petrol stations to run out before their delivery. This was first noticed on Thursday.

    Followed by the [email protected] and some of the MSM shouting loudly “Don’t talk about PANIC BUYING”, and three days later we unsurprisingly have a self-fulfilling prophecy of queues for petrol everywhere.
    Well I know that you don't drive any miles in the UK per week :smile:

    But come back to my example: You have six days of petrol left in your car. Do you tough it out and wait for whatever the HMF fuel tanker equivalent of the Green Goddesses or do you go looking for petrol.
    My car probably has fuel for 50 miles in it. As it will take a few days for stations to be refilled and I don't need it today I will set off tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday to try and find some fuel.

    Facebook will probably tell me when things arrive but I'm not in any hurry provided a have it before Saturday.
    It's interesting - because ofc the longer one leaves it the less wiggle room there is to find a station.

    My point is, cf queuing outside Northern Rock, it is eminently rational for people to "panic buy" in such circumstances.

    Unless of course you are sitting in your garden looking out over a charming vista counting insects and not driving anywhere.
    This is again the prisoner's dilemma but it's not that exact variant where you need to move instantly because in this case there is no finite limit as we know deliveries are continuing.

    So it's more a matter of deciding when is the best guess that a petrol station will have had a fuel delivery and people have stopped immediately panicking. Which is why I'm not doing anything about it today as it would be a fools errand.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,633
    edited September 2021

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Yawn...
    When things were going sort of OK I would have sympathy with the "yawn" - fighting the last war and all that. Politically though it would be mad for anyone pro-EU not to be making the link again and again and again between the current series of supply chain crises and Brexit. Polls show a majority of the public think Brexit is at least partly to blame for shops running out of items and the shortage of lorry drivers. In reality it's not so much Brexit per-se as the stupidly reductive version of Brexit that got negotiated in a hurry in 2019.

    This is a taste of the medicine the Tories have been excellent at administering to Labour for decades. Take one event, ensure by repetition and incantation that the public blames one party and one party only, and bring it back to the forefront any time that party looks like getting close to power. The winter of discontent did it for all of the 80s and into the early 90s. Then, from 2008 onwards, they happily pinned the entire blame for the global financial crisis on Gordon Brown, reciting the jolly "there's no money left" quote in 2015 and subsequent elections.

    The difference this time of course is that they have had stunning success in scaring Labour off mentioning Brexit, so it's the FBPEs who are doing it, and that is far less effective than if it were the main opposition wielding the stick and beating the government over the head.

    There's enough public disillusionment with the deal out there now that Keir should really be shouting from the rooftops every chance he has "Boris's botched Brexit deal did this", and quoting until hoarse ministers saying "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE".
    There is no fuel shortage.

    There is a distribution shortage for the fuel we have aplenty.

    A shortage in common with many places around the globe that have, er, not Brexited.

    Shout what you like from the rooftops. The people you need to win over will give a long stare, then turn their backs with a muttered "twat....".
    How many miles a week do you drive?
    Since we retired and with the covid effect, the Mrs P. and I have done about 3,000 miles in total in the past year, across our three cars.
    Not a question directed at you but good to know. :smile:

    I am interested in the weekly mileage of those shouting loudest about there being no fuel shortage.
    There is no fuel shortage in the country. There is a (hopefully temporary) shortage at the pumps, triggered by the media, and then by panic buying. Interesting on the radio just now, the comment that once the 'run' starts, you are being rational to join the panic if you need fuel. This is the argument that @IshmaelZ was running with, and I understand it. I just wish the initial people weren't so selfish.
    The government would be well advised to stop blaming the media or the people and start thinking why people lack confidence and how it might rebuild it.

    The CV19 situation taught us that bad things happen, which the government can't control. That memory is raw and people, rightly or wrongly, are taking responsibility for themselves by creating a local cache.

    The government would have been better advised to swing the other way and do things that are reassuring, rather than 'crisis, what crisis'.


This discussion has been closed.