Will the panickers stop panicking when their tanks are full? – politicalbetting.com

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Will the panickers stop panicking when their tanks are full? – politicalbetting.com

A long-time PBer sent me an email last night:

Read the full story here

SeaShantyIrish2

During the 1973 Opec Gas Crisis, my cousin found himself running close to empty out on the Pennsylvania Turnpike in the middle of nowhere trying to make it home. Got so desperate he stopped at a shut-down gas station and slit a gas pump hose so he could syphon off a few gallons. The old fashioned way, with his mouth (which is lots of fun as you know IF you've every done it). Hopefully the statute of limitations has expired!

SeaShantyIrish2

Linke just lost Berlin - Pankow to Greens; only one constituency in Germany left to declare

DecrepiterJohnL

It may well be that many of those panicking motorists are the ones who usually drive round with only a gallon or two in their tanks. Whatever. The petrol shortage will have abated long before the next election. Whether Keir Starmer has the wit to join the dots on the lack of spare capacity in our infrastructure, and make it an election issue, seems unlikely.

SeaShantyIrish2

Greens take Berlin Mitte from SPD, last constituency decided

Andy_JS

Final result, list vote:

SPD 25.7%
CDU/CSU 24.1%
Green 14.8%
FDP 11.5%
AfD 10.3%
Linke 4.9%
Others 8.7%

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

JosiasJessop

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

During the 1973 Opec Gas Crisis, my cousin found himself running close to empty out on the Pennsylvania Turnpike in the middle of nowhere trying to make it home. Got so desperate he stopped at a shut-down gas station and slit a gas pump hose so he could syphon off a few gallons. The old fashioned way, with his mouth (which is lots of fun as you know IF you've every done it). Hopefully the statute of limitations has expired!

As a kid, I siphoned diesel a few times. There's a technique to doing it right, which I have doubtless long forgotten.

(As to why: my dad had loads of plant. If you're on a small site, and you have a minidigger that's low on fuel, and there's a little-used dumper that's full, grab some hose and a jerry can and transfer between the two. The problem with keeping too many full jerry cans on site was theft...)

JosiasJessop

DecrepiterJohnL said:

It may well be that many of those panicking motorists are the ones who usually drive round with only a gallon or two in their tanks. Whatever. The petrol shortage will have abated long before the next election. Whether Keir Starmer has the wit to join the dots on the lack of spare capacity in our infrastructure, and make it an election issue, seems unlikely.

I've got zero belief that a Labour party under Starmer (or virtually any leader) would do much to increase capacity, redundancy or resilience. Sadly, I don't believe any party would. To do it properly would require a very different mindset in politics, the civil service and business. These would drive up prices to the consumer, with all that entails. What we'd get is some fettling around the edges to 'fix' the last crisis, whilst other likely crises are ignored.

DecrepiterJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

It may well be that many of those panicking motorists are the ones who usually drive round with only a gallon or two in their tanks. Whatever. The petrol shortage will have abated long before the next election. Whether Keir Starmer has the wit to join the dots on the lack of spare capacity in our infrastructure, and make it an election issue, seems unlikely.

I've got zero belief that a Labour party under Starmer (or virtually any leader) would do much to increase capacity, redundancy or resilience. Sadly, I don't believe any party would. To do it properly would require a very different mindset in politics, the civil service and business. These would drive up prices to the consumer, with all that entails. What we'd get is some fettling around the edges to 'fix' the last crisis, whilst other likely crises are ignored.

They might not have to do it, just campaign on it. Or is that too cynical? In unrelated news, Boris is running out of time to build 40 new hospitals before the next election.

It is even possible that the government might do something as part of its levelling up agenda. Store gas, and water, and PPE, and so on, in poorer parts of the country where it will be cheaper and will create jobs.

MikeL

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

DecrepiterJohnL

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

gars_pierre

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

As did Boris 10 years ago...

WhisperingOracle

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

I see the the Daily Express's front pages are as priceless as ever, but almost desperate and pleading this time.

"Don't Blame Crisis on Brexit".

MikeL

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

Same picture on front of Metro per BBC paper review.

gars_pierre

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

I reckon it's the fag he's objecting to.

DecrepiterJohnL

MikeL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

Same picture on front of Metro per BBC paper review.

Far smaller and cropped.

DecrepiterJohnL

gars_pierre said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

I reckon it's the fag he's objecting to.

She even carries that off quite well.

paulyork64

Andy_JS said:

Final result, list vote:

SPD 25.7%
CDU/CSU 24.1%
Green 14.8%
FDP 11.5%
AfD 10.3%
Linke 4.9%
Others 8.7%

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Does that mean Linke get no seats?

rcs1000

paulyork64 said:

Andy_JS said:

Final result, list vote:

SPD 25.7%
CDU/CSU 24.1%
Green 14.8%
FDP 11.5%
AfD 10.3%
Linke 4.9%
Others 8.7%

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Does that mean Linke get no seats?

They got three constituency seats. I thought that exempted them from the 5% hurdle, but I may be wrong.

paulyork64

On topic. Might increased WFH mean peak petrol demand should be lower than the last fuel crisis? A lot of those who have gone back to offices could be allowed to wfh again if no petrol.

paulyork64

DecrepiterJohnL said:

gars_pierre said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

I reckon it's the fag he's objecting to.

She even carries that off quite well.

Yep. Bit of a Bond villain look about her.

tlg86

Predictably the Sky News coverage of Germany is terrible. Describing the Greens as kingmakers and barely talking about the FDP. Indeed, they simply described the latter as “the liberals”, which would give the wrong impression to a British audience for whom that word hasn’t meant economically liberal for nearly a century.

And, of course, no discussion of whether or not Die Linke have made it and the importance of that on the potential coalitions.

JosiasJessop

paulyork64 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

gars_pierre said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

I reckon it's the fag he's objecting to.

She even carries that off quite well.

Yep. Bit of a Bond villain look about her.

More like Poppy Adams from Kingsman 2...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6sF3aAp9mM

MattW

Morning all.

New German words for me makes a bit of election watching worthwhile.

The word for "leaders round table debate" is .. Elefantenrunde, which is what it looks like.

rcs1000

tlg86 said:

Predictably the Sky News coverage of Germany is terrible. Describing the Greens as kingmakers and barely talking about the FDP. Indeed, they simply described the latter as “the liberals”, which would give the wrong impression to a British audience for whom that word hasn’t meant economically liberal for nearly a century.

And, of course, no discussion of whether or not Die Linke have made it and the importance of that on the potential coalitions.

I don't think Linke making it (or not) has any impact on the coalitions. Even if they don't, SPD + G is going to be short (albeit only just).

noneoftheabove

The common view is that there is enough petrol to put in cars, so its just a weekend blip.

Whereas the actual problem is that last week, there were not enough drivers to put petrol into petrol stations, so a few started running out.

This week they have to replenish two-thirds of stations immediately, and probably all of them before the end of the week, possibly some of them multiple times. Quite confused as to how anyone expects that to work itself out quickly, without extra drivers.

This will take many days, if not a few weeks to sort itself out.

paulyork64

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

Predictably the Sky News coverage of Germany is terrible. Describing the Greens as kingmakers and barely talking about the FDP. Indeed, they simply described the latter as “the liberals”, which would give the wrong impression to a British audience for whom that word hasn’t meant economically liberal for nearly a century.

And, of course, no discussion of whether or not Die Linke have made it and the importance of that on the potential coalitions.

I don't think Linke making it (or not) has any impact on the coalitions. Even if they don't, SPD + G is going to be short (albeit only just).

SPD/Green/FPD available at 1.35 on Betfair exchange for next government.

noneoftheabove

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

paulyork64

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

They are just governing for their client base arent they. It was probably always thus but it is feeling much more blatant atm.

noneoftheabove

paulyork64 said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

They are just governing for their client base arent they. It was probably always thus but it is feeling much more blatant atm.

Yes, its blatant, by both age on tax, and constituency on spending. Time for the opposition to sweep up those outside their client base and put together a credible plan to attract them, including tax cuts for workers particularly for those on the extreme marginal rates getting UC.

noneoftheabove

Turns out Iceland having a majority of female MPs was actually fake news.

Nigelb

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

noneoftheabove

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

Its true, they nearly all voted remain, and most voted Labour, Green or LD, if they could even be bothered to get out of bed in time. I concur, it's disgusting treacherous behaviour and bravo brave Sir Boris for taxing them into punary.

DecrepiterJohnL

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

Kite-flying to check reaction before the Conservative Party conference, which starts Sunday.

JosiasJessop

noneoftheabove said:

The common view is that there is enough petrol to put in cars, so its just a weekend blip.

Whereas the actual problem is that last week, there were not enough drivers to put petrol into petrol stations, so a few started running out.

This week they have to replenish two-thirds of stations immediately, and probably all of them before the end of the week, possibly some of them multiple times. Quite confused as to how anyone expects that to work itself out quickly, without extra drivers.

This will take many days, if not a few weeks to sort itself out.

As I said yesterday, I'm expecting a decreasing series of demand spikes before things settle down.

WhisperingOracle

I'd be pretty interested to see some of the first post-shortage party polling - when is the first of that due ?

RochdalePioneers

There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

Sandpit

Another day of some of the most irresponsible journalism of the past two years - and that is really saying something.

There’s a certain section of the media - most of whom live in London, and whose idea of private transport is when the boss gets them an Addison Lee for the day to take them around - who seem to think that it’s justifiable to stoke a run on petrol, which will lead to key workers being unable to work, and as we have seen some minor social disturbances, if it means they can use the crisis they made up to bash the government.

At this point they’re shouting fire in a crowded theatre, and there isn’t a fire except for the one they lit themselves.

CarlottaVance

Wings Over Scotland shutting down:

A thread of extracts from Wings Over Scotland's suicide note... 1/19
https://twitter.com/themajorityscot/status/1442258371327967240?s=21

CarlottaVance

It was a very close call for Die Linke, much closer than expected. They ended up with less than 5% of the second vote, obtaining compensatory seats only because they won three constituencies, the minimum required. One of them was won with 22.8% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1442359705070981125?s=20

Taz

RochdalePioneers said:

There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

Yes, I saw this on the a167 at plawsworth. A couple of cars queueing and people seeing it and coming off the main road to queue.

darkage

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

paulyork64

RochdalePioneers said:

There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

We panicked early, on Thursday night, as we had under half a tank. We should be ok for 2 weeks now. If lots of others are in the same position then hopefully stocks can be rebuilt.

If we'd waited til this week to fill up we might have struggled to find any. Not sure about the local supermarkets but a lot of garages on my wife's drive to work are taped off.

paulyork64

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

That interest rate does sound too high. How much difference does it make for graduates who dont pay off their loans before the time limit expires?

noneoftheabove

paulyork64 said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

That interest rate does sound too high. How much difference does it make for graduates who dont pay off their loans before the time limit expires?

Interest rate very little. The threshold you start repaying at, a lot.

paulyork64

Labour plan to reform business rates sounds a good policy angle but need to see the detail.

IanB2

gars_pierre said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

As did Boris 10 years ago...

Eh? He still does

darkage

paulyork64 said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

That interest rate does sound too high. How much difference does it make for graduates who dont pay off their loans before the time limit expires?

If you are in the unfortunate but not all that unlikely position of never earning above £27k per annum, the balance would just increase at RPI (currently 1.5%) every year. Eventually the whole balance would be written off (after I think 30 years) but this change seeks to close off this 'loophole' by reducing the repayment threshold, thus forcing you to pay more back.

RochdalePioneers

paulyork64 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

We panicked early, on Thursday night, as we had under half a tank. We should be ok for 2 weeks now. If lots of others are in the same position then hopefully stocks can be rebuilt.

If we'd waited til this week to fill up we might have struggled to find any. Not sure about the local supermarkets but a lot of garages on my wife's drive to work are taped off.

Because there isn't a shortage of fuel, now we have passed the initial panic it's unlikely to come back. Even if all the people who panic filled their tanks decide to queue again for a 10l top-up that won't threaten availability much.

It would take a massive change in behaviour - everyone suddenly doing long trips for no reason - for there to be a shortage.

As for journalists, this was a Twitter and Facebook storm. I found out there was a problem on social media, not in the newspapers.

MattW

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Not clever if true.

Or another FT rumour, or someone flying a kite?

ydoethur

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

Without disagreeing with your substantive point, I should remind you that the proposals were in fact Labour proposals that the Tories had - stupidly - agreed to implement without seeing.

What we have is what happens when a failing Prime Minister appoints one of his cronies - who was incidentally also a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer who was very fortunate to have admitted that in front of a notoriously stupid and biased judge rather than a real one - in charge of policy making and tell him to ask VCs what they want.

And then the opposition, too cowardly to talk about false economies, buy the narrative.

Scott_xP

Polish truck driver on @bbc5live nailing it right now: making visas available assumes there is a queue of people desperate to come over here and take on a job for three months. "You can't turn migrant workers on and off like a tap" #PetrolShortages
https://twitter.com/anngripper/status/1442373371786764293

The head of the European Road Haulers Association (UETR) has said EU drivers have no interest in returning to the UK where they are
"Not welcome except when England is desperate"
https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1442006207334649858

Charles

DecrepiterJohnL said:

It may well be that many of those panicking motorists are the ones who usually drive round with only a gallon or two in their tanks. Whatever. The petrol shortage will have abated long before the next election. Whether Keir Starmer has the wit to join the dots on the lack of spare capacity in our infrastructure, and make it an election issue, seems unlikely.

The problem is that resilience spending just isn’t sexy

Philip_Thompson

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

Philip_Thompson

Scott_xP said:

Polish truck driver on @bbc5live nailing it right now: making visas available assumes there is a queue of people desperate to come over here and take on a job for three months. "You can't turn migrant workers on and off like a tap" #PetrolShortages
https://twitter.com/anngripper/status/1442373371786764293

The head of the European Road Haulers Association (UETR) has said EU drivers have no interest in returning to the UK where they are
"Not welcome except when England is desperate"
https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1442006207334649858

Then companies will need to pay local workers a good salary to make them take the job. A million qualified drivers apparently should be well more than enough.

Though it's worth noting that many people do take temp jobs in the lead up to Christmas. If eg a Romanian driver thinks they can do 3 months in the UK and earn more than they could at home for a year or two in that time, that may be very tempting.

JosiasJessop

I'm getting some wry amusement from our current shortage of lorry drivers, and SeanT's long-standing views that automation would make lorry driving redundant within what must be the next couple of years.

We all must find humour where we can

But as with all SeanT's prophecies in his various guises, there'll be another opposing one along in a minute. That way he's always correct ...

theProle

paulyork64 said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

They are just governing for their client base arent they. It was probably always thus but it is feeling much more blatant atm.

If they are, then they are pretty stupid, given that said client base is old and dieing off.
Traditionally, the Tory voter base trended old, but it was constantly replenished by the next cohort getting older - as people became older and wiser they tended to realise the Labour was a bunch of unrealistic idealists who actually make things worse, whilst the Tories had half an idea about the real world.

Shafting young people like this has two effects - it means that the Tories increasingly aren't a pragmatic party for people who work hard, and also ensures that a segment of young people will have such a visceral hatred of the Tories as they get older they will never ever vote Tory, even if they actually agree with all the Tory's policies.

IanB2

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either?

Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……

RochdalePioneers

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Polish truck driver on @bbc5live nailing it right now: making visas available assumes there is a queue of people desperate to come over here and take on a job for three months. "You can't turn migrant workers on and off like a tap" #PetrolShortages
https://twitter.com/anngripper/status/1442373371786764293

The head of the European Road Haulers Association (UETR) has said EU drivers have no interest in returning to the UK where they are
"Not welcome except when England is desperate"
https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1442006207334649858

Then companies will need to pay local workers a good salary to make them take the job. A million qualified drivers apparently should be well more than enough.

Though it's worth noting that many people do take temp jobs in the lead up to Christmas. If eg a Romanian driver thinks they can do 3 months in the UK and earn more than they could at home for a year or two in that time, that may be very tempting.

It would appear that they have reacted to be imprisoned at Marston airport last year and decided they aren't coming at any price.

IshmaelZ

You can always syphon your tank into jerrycans at home and go back for more. My recollection is that locking fuel caps came in with the price hike of 1974.

Secondary hoarding might be the next thing: a trip to the supermarket now costs big in fuel terms, so better buy twice as much of everything to cut down on trips.

Also I can no longer mow the lawn because I lack the moral courage to be seen filling up a 5 litre can.

rcs1000

paulyork64 said:

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

Predictably the Sky News coverage of Germany is terrible. Describing the Greens as kingmakers and barely talking about the FDP. Indeed, they simply described the latter as “the liberals”, which would give the wrong impression to a British audience for whom that word hasn’t meant economically liberal for nearly a century.

And, of course, no discussion of whether or not Die Linke have made it and the importance of that on the potential coalitions.

I don't think Linke making it (or not) has any impact on the coalitions. Even if they don't, SPD + G is going to be short (albeit only just).

SPD/Green/FPD available at 1.35 on Betfair exchange for next government.

Probably value, as the the alternatives are:

1. Grand coalition with CDU/CSU in the supporting role
2. CDU/CSU-Grune-FDP
3. FDP-Grune minority government

All three are unlikely, to my mind. SPD-Green/FDP is probably more like a 1.2 shot.

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

It was a very close call for Die Linke, much closer than expected. They ended up with less than 5% of the second vote, obtaining compensatory seats only because they won three constituencies, the minimum required. One of them was won with 22.8% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1442359705070981125?s=20

Was three seats the cut off? Wow.

Charles

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

I assume everyone will pay more tax

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either?

Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……

Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.

Gallowgate

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

I assume everyone will pay more tax

The graduate marginal tax rate is going to be insane

rcs1000

noneoftheabove said:

Turns out Iceland having a majority of female MPs was actually fake news.

Do we count by birth sex or by self identification? And how do you treat those MPs who are non-binary?

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

It was a very close call for Die Linke, much closer than expected. They ended up with less than 5% of the second vote, obtaining compensatory seats only because they won three constituencies, the minimum required. One of them was won with 22.8% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1442359705070981125?s=20

While in the east they’re the reformed communists and a haven for many who had influence under (or hanker for) the GDR, in the west they seem like mostly young Corbynites - it certainly looked that way when I looked in at the campaign HQ in Freiburg on Wednesday. Has the rise in the Green vote hit them hard?

Pulpstar

All this going on, and Labour seem to be having a row about cervixes.

IanB2

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either?

Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……

Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.

You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/

IshmaelZ

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Other imaginary scenarios are available, however. Wouldn't mind giving her a great office of state for her birthday.

Philip_Thompson

Gallowgate said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

I see in the FT that the government are planning to raise some more tax. The target? Young workers of course, with the repayment threshold moving down from £27,295 to around £20-23k. Serves them right for not voting for Brexit or Boris.

Disgusting if true.

I assume everyone will pay more tax

The graduate marginal tax rate is going to be insane

Yes.

If you're going to charge everyone more tax then charge EVERYONE more tax.

Merge NI, Income Tax and the young graduate's tax together and charge that to everyone as the tax rate on all income.

theProle

JosiasJessop said:

I'm getting some wry amusement from our current shortage of lorry drivers, and SeanT's long-standing views that automation would make lorry driving redundant within what must be the next couple of years.

We all must find humour where we can

But as with all SeanT's prophecies in his various guises, there'll be another opposing one along in a minute. That way he's always correct ...

The irony is that the tech to do the motorway bits of self driving probably is mature enough to be let loose. It's a very regulated situation, especially in a wagon govened to 56mph.

The problem is that for this to be useful would require a radical change in the way hauliers work, and a lot of dedicated terminals building where human drivers could collect their lorry to take it to its destination in manual (ideally having just dropped one off to run down the motorway in auto).

Jonathan

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

In 2000 Boris was not in charge and we hadn’t hat Brexit, Covid or the Credit crunch to deal with.

Today’s world is less stable and our politicians less competent.

The public response is necessarily different

rcs1000

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?

Charles

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

The government then sold the loans at a premium and booked the proceeds as revenue…

It’s too-clever-by-half financial engineering. Government’s shouldn’t engage in accounting tricks.

alex_

RochdalePioneers said:

paulyork64 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There is a major difference between 2021 and 2000. Back in 2000 there was an actual shortage. Refineries were blockaded and very little fuel was coming out.

In 2021 there is no shortage. A brief supply issue in Kent turned into a nationwide outage due to idiocy. But tankers are largely still delivering more fuel and will continue to do so.

We witnessed sheep behaviour. There is a queue so I will join the queue. May be a bit of that for a few more days but when it's obvious there is no shortage people will stop queuing.

We panicked early, on Thursday night, as we had under half a tank. We should be ok for 2 weeks now. If lots of others are in the same position then hopefully stocks can be rebuilt.

If we'd waited til this week to fill up we might have struggled to find any. Not sure about the local supermarkets but a lot of garages on my wife's drive to work are taped off.

Because there isn't a shortage of fuel, now we have passed the initial panic it's unlikely to come back. Even if all the people who panic filled their tanks decide to queue again for a 10l top-up that won't threaten availability much.

It would take a massive change in behaviour - everyone suddenly doing long trips for no reason - for there to be a shortage.

As for journalists, this was a Twitter and Facebook storm. I found out there was a problem on social media, not in the newspapers.

Yes, social media as ever being a serious and major culprit. The media had the power to amplify it once the issues reached a certain threshold (and the problems exaggerated because so many people who would normally have resisted the urge to panic, felt comfortable to do so because of the belief that this was all due to Brexit (hence Government messaging went ignored as presumed spin/conspiracy). But it was social media that was able to exaggerate an issue to hit that threshold.

And this can happen with virtually anything (whether instigated innocently or by malign actors). Today it's runs on petrol stations, tomorrow it's runs on banks. And because social media is completely untamed, the Government lacks the traditional levers to control it.

darkage

ydoethur said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

Without disagreeing with your substantive point, I should remind you that the proposals were in fact Labour proposals that the Tories had - stupidly - agreed to implement without seeing.

What we have is what happens when a failing Prime Minister appoints one of his cronies - who was incidentally also a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer who was very fortunate to have admitted that in front of a notoriously stupid and biased judge rather than a real one - in charge of policy making and tell him to ask VCs what they want.

And then the opposition, too cowardly to talk about false economies, buy the narrative.

It was definetly the coalition that introduced them in 2010 against opposition from Labour. So this is no excuse. It is on them.

IanB2

theProle said:

JosiasJessop said:

I'm getting some wry amusement from our current shortage of lorry drivers, and SeanT's long-standing views that automation would make lorry driving redundant within what must be the next couple of years.

We all must find humour where we can

But as with all SeanT's prophecies in his various guises, there'll be another opposing one along in a minute. That way he's always correct ...

The irony is that the tech to do the motorway bits of self driving probably is mature enough to be let loose. It's a very regulated situation, especially in a wagon govened to 56mph.

The problem is that for this to be useful would require a radical change in the way hauliers work, and a lot of dedicated terminals building where human drivers could collect their lorry to take it to its destination in manual (ideally having just dropped one off to run down the motorway in auto).

You could run a system like that more easily if you put the ‘motorway’ bit on rails and put a building - one could call it a station - at each end.

rcs1000

darkage said:

paulyork64 said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

That interest rate does sound too high. How much difference does it make for graduates who dont pay off their loans before the time limit expires?

If you are in the unfortunate but not all that unlikely position of never earning above £27k per annum, the balance would just increase at RPI (currently 1.5%) every year. Eventually the whole balance would be written off (after I think 30 years) but this change seeks to close off this 'loophole' by reducing the repayment threshold, thus forcing you to pay more back.

As an aside, I actually agree that this is stupid. £20k/year is too low.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either?

Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……

Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.

You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/

No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

Without disagreeing with your substantive point, I should remind you that the proposals were in fact Labour proposals that the Tories had - stupidly - agreed to implement without seeing.

What we have is what happens when a failing Prime Minister appoints one of his cronies - who was incidentally also a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer who was very fortunate to have admitted that in front of a notoriously stupid and biased judge rather than a real one - in charge of policy making and tell him to ask VCs what they want.

And then the opposition, too cowardly to talk about false economies, buy the narrative.

"a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer"

Ah hem.

It's not you who gets sued. Be careful casting nasturtiums around.

squareroot2

I am more worried that the guy who cuts my grass can get the petrol to do it....

RochdalePioneers

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?

For all of the flap, the change in tuition fees was a positive step in allowing poorer students access. Instead of fees up front it was hypothecated fees when earning.

The issue was funding for universities. With the government contribution to uni teaching cut by 78%, we've seen institutions both get it in the neck for charging the "maximum" £9k a year and offering poor tuition due to a lack of money.

Anyway, think what these £9k fees are. Instead of the government handing money to the universities, it hands it to student loans who pay it to universities. We know that in this era of bankism debt is an asset. How much "asset" was added to bank balance sheets in this way? a very quiet way to keep injecting cash into a broken banking system.

rcs1000

Charles said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

The government then sold the loans at a premium and booked the proceeds as revenue…

It’s too-clever-by-half financial engineering. Government’s shouldn’t engage in accounting tricks.

Ooohhh, I don't know. Without accounting tricks, we might never have had the Eurozone crisis.

squareroot2

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

The very idea that such a coarse and unpleasant person could negotiate on behalf of the nation stretches credulity to breaking point.

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

So, between 1.5% and 4.5% for unsecured personal debt, where repayments are automatically paused in the event of unemployment, is a bad deal?

And, don't people who choose to do degrees in Film Studies bear some responsibility for their choices? Or do only you get to choose?

Why should eg a successful middle aged lawyer or businessman who owns their own home be on a lower real marginal tax rate than that Film Studies graduate who has a lower income and rent to pay?

Rob_downunder

RE German Elections:

My instinct says Scholz will probably push for a reverse 'grand coalition' with the CDU, as an SPD/Green coalition isn't enough for a majority, and the FDP seem (economically at least) to the right of the CDU/CSU.

moonshine

The test will be whether Amazon prime deliveries keep happening within 24 hours. If 90% of stations are running on empty, then personally i think it’s hard to see how it doesn’t manifest itself into the general product supply chain. Monday morning supermarket trip for us I think.

JosiasJessop

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

This is completely different to 2000. In 2000 there was actually a shortage for weeks and stations were NOT being refilled.

There is no shortage here other that irresponsible idiots shouting fire when there wasn't one, creating an artificial one.

There's not even a shortage of drivers. The fuel companies have all said they're doing extra routes this week to compensate for the panic buying.

This is just madness. This is Sparta.

You forgot to add that there aren’t any tanks in Baghdad either?

Just wait until we get on to no turkeys and no toys……

Why would there be no toys? You can get any toy you want next day delivered. Most of our Christmas shopping is hidden in our cupboards already.

You’ve panic bought already? Lol.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/schools-family/3493379/christmas-shortages-will-this-toy-story-have-a-happy-ending/

No panic buying, just buying through the year as we have always done. You pay more if you buy at Christmas.

Eg my eldest daughter's main present we are giving her this year is going to be the Lego Harry Potter Great Hall. Normally £90, but a couple of months ago Amazon had it for £45 as a 24 hour flash sale. Why not buy it then?

She's really into both Lego and Harry Potter. I can't imagine that changing in the next three months.

This is another issue where the well-off can save money. You've probably got space to hide toys for six months where your kids cannot find them, and the spare cash to purchase early. Many people have neither, and therefore end up paying through the nose at Christmas.

I've asked my son what he wants Father Christmas to get him, and he's replied another set of replica (small) Terracotta Warriors. I think this'll be his sixth. He loves them, and even better, they're fairly cheap.

It's interesting trying to work out how kid's brains work. His best friend loves computer games, whilst they leave my son cold (at the moment, I expect that to change...). He loves writing and drawing but does not read much, whilst his best friend loves reading, but finds writing difficult.

But why Terracotta Warriors? What's grabbed him about them, and kept his interest for over three years? Before that it was Moai statues.

IshmaelZ

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

Without disagreeing with your substantive point, I should remind you that the proposals were in fact Labour proposals that the Tories had - stupidly - agreed to implement without seeing.

What we have is what happens when a failing Prime Minister appoints one of his cronies - who was incidentally also a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer who was very fortunate to have admitted that in front of a notoriously stupid and biased judge rather than a real one - in charge of policy making and tell him to ask VCs what they want.

And then the opposition, too cowardly to talk about false economies, buy the narrative.

"a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer"

Ah hem.

It's not you who gets sued. Be careful casting nasturtiums around.

It's him, actually, primarily, though it might be the site as well. If you respond promptly to a takedown notice you'll be fine. Defamation Act 2013 s 5.

Jonathan

Speaking to a friend in local government. Local authorities can’t access reserves until a national crisis is declared by central government. In crisis meetings last week U.K. Government rep says this is a local issue and didn’t want to declare a national situation. Bad headlines I guess. On pushing, national government rep was also unaware it needed to act so that local government could solve the problem.

So we are governed by fools and this situation may drag on longer than it needs to.

rcs1000

I would prefer it if I could go to bed, feeling comfortable that there's no risk of people being libelled.

Pretty please.

rcs1000

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

darkage said:

With regard to student loan repayment issue; it is worth reflecting on how we got in to this mess. Many people on here view the coalition years (2010-2015) as a glorious example of strong and mature government. My view to the contrary is that this was the worst government in living history.

The student loans are nothing but a con. The degree courses people were directed in to going on, at £9k per annum to go on were, in a very, very large number of cases, completely and utterly useless and a waste of 3 years of young peoples lives when they could have been doing something economically productive instead. The con gets worse when one looks at the repayment system. The absolute scandal is the interest rates, they are set at RPI, which is 1.5%, not the actual bank of england interest rate which is 0.1%. The interest rate increases to 4.5% when students start earning any significant salary. It is effectively a system of cynical exploitation of young people.

There is a lot of anger about this, it is the one policy area where it is possible to sympathise with people like Andrea Rayner.

Without disagreeing with your substantive point, I should remind you that the proposals were in fact Labour proposals that the Tories had - stupidly - agreed to implement without seeing.

What we have is what happens when a failing Prime Minister appoints one of his cronies - who was incidentally also a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer who was very fortunate to have admitted that in front of a notoriously stupid and biased judge rather than a real one - in charge of policy making and tell him to ask VCs what they want.

And then the opposition, too cowardly to talk about false economies, buy the narrative.

"a sex pest, embezzler and perjurer"

Ah hem.

It's not you who gets sued. Be careful casting nasturtiums around.

It's him, actually, primarily, though it might be the site as well. If you respond promptly to a takedown notice you'll be fine. Defamation Act 2013 s 5.

It's not nice to receive Carter Ruck missives. They're like love letters. Except with more menace. And less likelihood of a happy ending.

CarlottaVance

I wouldn't call it persuasive....
This video is an ad. Watch it and guess what it’s for. I’ll wait.
https://twitter.com/gruber/status/1441457685644279819?s=20

Spoiler - its actually 10 years old....but the attitude hasn't evolved...

Scott_xP

...

rcs1000

Rob_downunder said:

RE German Elections:

My instinct says Scholz will probably push for a reverse 'grand coalition' with the CDU, as an SPD/Green coalition isn't enough for a majority, and the FDP seem (economically at least) to the right of the CDU/CSU.

From 1969 to 1982, Germany was governed by a SPD-FDP coalition. (And there may be other occasions, that's just the one I know.)

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

I wouldn't call it persuasive....
This video is an ad. Watch it and guess what it’s for. I’ll wait.
https://twitter.com/gruber/status/1441457685644279819?s=20

Spoiler - its actually 10 years old....but the attitude hasn't evolved...

Wow.

That's possibly the worst advert I've ever seen.

CarlottaVance

So here's what the next Bundestag will look like. SPD ahead of CDU/CSU on 206 to 196 seats (what a comeback!).

Three coalitions possible:

Traffic light (Red Green Yellow): 416/735 seats
Jamaica (Black Green Yellow): 406/735 seats
Grand coalition (Red Black): 402/735 seats...

My sense currently is that traffic-light has a momentum that Jamaica lacks: the SPD came 1st and made big gains, Scholz is much more popular than Laschet, emerging alignment of FDP & Greens also helps prospects of SPD-FDP common ground. BUT no certainty and talks will be tough.


https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442381847451684865?s=20

alex_

People always misrepresent the student loan issue as being just about the fees. Arguably the real problem is the way that the loan system allowed universities and housing providers to transform the student housing market and make massive profits on the back of it. With students paying for it on the never never.

There are pros and cons for the principle of student fees. It is the loan system (admittedly designed explicitly to make the hike in fees seem “reasonable”/affordable to prospective that was/is the real culprit.

IanB2

squareroot2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Anyone who thinks Lab would have any chance whatsoever under Rayner take a look at the front pages - all with the same picture of her - she looks totally inconceivable as a possible PM.

Where "all" is the Times and Telegraph?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58701728

Dunno. You'd have been right pre-Boris, perhaps, and though most female world leaders have shoulder-length hair, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has broken that taboo. I'd always imagined it had something to do with addressing outdoor rallies, which is largely a thing of the past, or possibly helicopters.

The very idea that such a coarse and unpleasant person could negotiate on behalf of the nation stretches credulity to breaking point.

...were it not already happening, of course.

eek

CarlottaVance said:

I wouldn't call it persuasive....
This video is an ad. Watch it and guess what it’s for. I’ll wait.
https://twitter.com/gruber/status/1441457685644279819?s=20

Spoiler - its actually 10 years old....but the attitude hasn't evolved...

It’s also wrong.

Most people are now tied into either the Apple or Android worlds. Forcing Apple to change its connector will mean people need to buy replacement cables when they upgraded their iPhone. It gets even worse if you use a wired headset you may need to replace that as well.

And there is an obvious get out clause that apple will use, they will just remove all sockets from the iPhone and insist on wireless charging.