One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Most people have stopped wearing masks in my area. Crowded trains are an exception.
Which is probably the sensible compromise.
Really, of course, we want the unvaccinated on the crowded train to wear the mask. Sadly, (in the US at least), it is the unvaccinated who ditch their masks first.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
NB the law is treated here as no more than a lever by which power is exercised. Xinhua’s moral: that a jealous America used “law” to try to contain China but was outmatched by Chinese power. The implications of such a bleak worldview for the coming international order are serious
China Xinhua News @XHNews China state-affiliated media Welcome home! She was arrested because of a rising China. So was her release!
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Don't put the A/C on recycle and crack open the windows.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
Lets put it like this. When I go to Germany next month it'll be mandatory mask wearing with pox rates less than a quarter they are here. So when I then fly into London for the few days that follow it would be illogical to adopt the Tories' view and say "no risk, no mask".
Yes I have been double jabbed. But pox is still running rampant and still making people ill and still giving double-jabbed people like my mum long Covid.
Well fuck that. If me wearing a mask makes some people on the blue side of politics react, I honestly don't care. We will get through this pandemic. We haven't yet.
COVID is endemic. You're talking about wearing a mask for the rest of your life. It isn't ever going away. We're already through the pandemic, you're the Japanese soldier in 1970 holding out on a tiny island thinking the war isn't over.
Bless. Once we have completed roll-out of vaccinations then transmission rates will drop.
The sad reality is that the UK has fallen well behind with vaccinations because people refuse to get it, has an endemic transmission rate significantly ahead of neighbouring countries, and let have the most aggressive "ditch masks and social distancing" views of anyone.
We've completed rollout of vaccines. It's done. Everyone who wants a vaccine can walk up and get one. What are you proposing? That the army (sans drivers, of course) march down the street and forcibly break down doors and jab this people who refused?
You're fighting a war that we've already lost/won depending on your perspective.
COVID is endemic. That's where we are. Deal with it.
Then we will have to accept the long term underling load on the NHS. On us being red listed by countries we want to travel to. On not getting clear of this when others do.
We could have got more people jabbed. Our neighbours managed it. Then again their leadership told people get the jab or else. Here Beaker told people it was over before it was, and so we're stuck with 30-40k new cases a day.
Ironically the one card he had left was to quote Kermit the Frog at the UN vaccine passports. I'm against these in principle, but they would have been effective in getting younger jab avoiders to get one.
Honestly, you're living in a complete dreamworld. None of the stuff you say is happening. Who cares if there's 30-40k cases per day? You've got yourself into a position where you're so far gone with opposing the government that you instinctively disagree with everything even when they're right. On going back to the old normal they are absolutely right. You want the delta cases now when there is high latent immunity and no NHS crisis, not in November and December with lower immunity and the annual NHS crisis.
Lots of the experts said as much when they supported the July 19th final restrictions being lifted.
Where we're at is unvaccinated people getting sick with COVID. That's a choice they made. The sooner all of those people are through the funnel the better.
With hindsight, I think the government got the delay to the 21st June reopening, and then the reopening on 19th July, correct. Probably not perfect, but correct enough. Certainly the prophecies of doom about reopening don't appear to have come to pass.
However: I wish people wouldn't be so blase about only the unvaccinated becoming sick. As far as I'm aware that isn't true, and we still have lots of people dying daily. We couldn't continue with the restrictions, but neither are we out of the woods yet.
I think the problem is that actually we are never going to be out of the woods. This is probably about as good as it is ever going to get but with a seasonal cycle imposed over the top. Just like seasonal flu. As such people have to decide whether they are going to make permanent changes to their lifestyle - masks, avoiding certain events etc - or if they are just going to accept that we have had one more small risk added to the many that already existed and that they want to get on with their lives without constantly worrying about about all the many things that may bring them down.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
I listened to Angela Rayner's speech and it was like we were returning to an age gone by
Her speech effectively was
Conference - unions - social workers - sleeze tories - green deal - beer and sandwiches - zero hours contracts - hire and fire
She spoke better than at PMQ's, played to the unions and the public sector, and was ok but not really any vision for the rest of us
I just could not see her PM, while to be fair I could see Starmer
So you don't think workers in the private sector want decent pay and conditions and job security? This artificial divide between workers in the private and public sectors gets me a bit miffed. A Tory tactic to turn worker against worker.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
A voluntary organisation to which I belong holds meetings in a local hall. The autumn lecture programme includes a requirement to wear masks, to which my response is: if it's that bloody dangerous I'd rather stay at home.
Piano recital this week in the north of England, medieval hall, full of people average age about 109, the usual crowd you get outside the big cities for a non famous solo classical gig. Half and half for mask wearing (maybe posh Tories one half and posh Labour the other? Who knows?) Social distancing impossible. Glad I went, not least to support the brilliant young non mask wearing performer.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
You're a logical thinker... but you keep coming back to the same error: viral load is important. It's not just the chance of infection yes/no that you need to think about, it's also how serious the infection is. Covid is analogue, not digital.
It's like driving up a residential street at 60mph, and reasoning that it's the same risk as driving at 31mph, because both are above the limit.
I reckon having lunch without a mask is like doing 90mph in a built up area.
NB the law is treated here as no more than a lever by which power is exercised. Xinhua’s moral: that a jealous America used “law” to try to contain China but was outmatched by Chinese power. The implications of such a bleak worldview for the coming international order are serious
China Xinhua News @XHNews China state-affiliated media Welcome home! She was arrested because of a rising China. So was her release!
A meeting of the House of Commons as a business meeting: reading facial expressions is essential. I would not do a business meeting with a mask on, I have had several over the past few weeks and no one in any of the meetings would even contemplate it. This includes meetings with people who I know to be very cautious about Covid.
There is no good reason to wear masks in the house of commons. Everyone is (or should be) tested regularly, there is a track and trace system in place; the masks being used are not actually going to do much to prevent transmission with the delta variant. Labour are basically engaging in opportunistic virtue signalling, thats it.
citation needed
What is this, an academic journal? I thought I was posting on a political betting website.
If you want to provide some counter evidence that fabric masks significantly reduce the spread of the delta variant then of course you are more than free to do so. But two generally agreed factors are relevant here: firstly that the delta variant is highly contagious and there is little that can be done to stop its spread, even extreme lockdowns have been unsuccessful; and secondly that if you are going to wear masks to reduce the spread, then they need to be the medical variety. If the decision has been taken that parliament should convene and the business at hand is so important that social distancing should be suspended, then it is illogical to then decide to wear masks, which as I pointed out, actually hinders the the conduct of the business at hand.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Tom,
I have some excellent news for you. There have been a *lot* of empirical studies of the effectiveness of mask wearing with regard to Covid, and they all come to exactly the same conclusion: masks are extremely effective at stopping the spread of Covid. From the last two weeks alone we have:
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Tom,
I have some excellent news for you. There have been a *lot* of empirical studies of the effectiveness of mask wearing with regard to Covid, and they all come to exactly the same conclusion: masks are extremely effective at stopping the spread of Covid. From the last two weeks alone we have:
MAsk wearing does F all about covid - just look at the UK where rates between countries are no different despite masks being worn more n Scotland /Wales and N ireland. Its just virtue signalling and paranoia that keeps people wearign them (and more irritatingly wanting others to wear them) . Do Labour and Mike Smithson really want us to wear masks forever becasue covid is not going away. Outside of virtue signalling environments nobody is wearing them anyway
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Tom,
I have some excellent news for you. There have been a *lot* of empirical studies of the effectiveness of mask wearing with regard to Covid, and they all come to exactly the same conclusion: masks are extremely effective at stopping the spread of Covid. From the last two weeks alone we have:
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Tom,
I have some excellent news for you. There have been a *lot* of empirical studies of the effectiveness of mask wearing with regard to Covid, and they all come to exactly the same conclusion: masks are extremely effective at stopping the spread of Covid. From the last two weeks alone we have:
I listened to Angela Rayner's speech and it was like we were returning to an age gone by
Her speech effectively was
Conference - unions - social workers - sleeze tories - green deal - beer and sandwiches - zero hours contracts - hire and fire
She spoke better than at PMQ's, played to the unions and the public sector, and was ok but not really any vision for the rest of us
I just could not see her PM, while to be fair I could see Starmer
So you don't think workers in the private sector want decent pay and conditions and job security? This artificial divide between workers in the private and public sectors gets me a bit miffed. A Tory tactic to turn worker against worker.
Divide and rule has been the Tory modus operandi since the dawn of time. And why not, it seems to always work for them.
Left-wingers are neurotic, more socially averse, more sceptical of scientific progress, much more risk-averse, and tend instinctively to support massive state interventions in people's ordinary lives. Right-wingers have more "median" preferences on those topics mostly plus a few who think Covid is a bad flu.
If you have median preferences, that makes you a centrist, surely?
One of the parties in question has 200 MPs. The other has almost 400. So the centre of British politics is somewhere in the Tory region.
Not if you go by votes, instead of by the results of a rigged voting system.
It is the same one that delivered Blair into office and is used widely in elections
It is not rigged, but if you want it changed you need to persuade enough people and it will change
Yes. I think various PR set ups are on balance better (yes yes, I know, permanent coalition, party power etc), but adherents do themselves no favours by referring to FPTP as inherently rigged or corrupt. It's not rigged, I happen to think its not the most appropriate.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
MAsk wearing does F all about covid - just look at the UK where rates between countries are no different despite masks being worn more n Scotland /Wales and N ireland. Its just virtue signalling and paranoia that keeps people wearign them (and more irritatingly wanting others to wear them) . Do Labour and Mike Smithson really want us to wear masks forever becasue covid is not going away. Outside of virtue signalling environments nobody is wearing them anyway
If you could point me to the academic study that backs up your point of view, that would be great.
--- Digression time ---
Everybody wants there to be *one* thing that explains the spread of Covid.
There's not one thing.
There are lots of things, from proportion of people traveling on public transit systems, to number of people per household, to different vaccination strategies, and to - yes - the prevalence of masks.
Oh yeah, and luck. Don't forget how massively important luck is in all of this. Florida thought they were special. Until they weren't.
If you do a best fit line, you will find half a dozen variables that have decent predictive power.
All the empirical evidence (and there's LOTS of empirical evidence) is that masks slow the spread of Covid. Now, they also come with costs. And clearly at a certain point, those costs begin to outweigh benefits.
What we need to do is to understand where that line is. What restrictions - if any - are still warranted?
I listened to Angela Rayner's speech and it was like we were returning to an age gone by
Her speech effectively was
Conference - unions - social workers - sleeze tories - green deal - beer and sandwiches - zero hours contracts - hire and fire
She spoke better than at PMQ's, played to the unions and the public sector, and was ok but not really any vision for the rest of us
I just could not see her PM, while to be fair I could see Starmer
So you don't think workers in the private sector want decent pay and conditions and job security? This artificial divide between workers in the private and public sectors gets me a bit miffed. A Tory tactic to turn worker against worker.
Divide and rule has been the Tory modus operandi since the dawn of time. And why not, it seems to always work for them.
That's right. When different lineages of dinosaurs evolved flight at the same time, there was a Torysaurus rex going on to the ones with four wings, "Look at those sods with two wings, stealing your dinners!"
MAsk wearing does F all about covid - just look at the UK where rates between countries are no different despite masks being worn more n Scotland /Wales and N ireland. Its just virtue signalling and paranoia that keeps people wearign them (and more irritatingly wanting others to wear them) . Do Labour and Mike Smithson really want us to wear masks forever becasue covid is not going away. Outside of virtue signalling environments nobody is wearing them anyway
I beg to differ. I didn't wear the mask to show everyone else how good I am. I wore it so my Auntie had a less chance of catching a very serious illness (for her anyway).
On topic: because Tory MPs are ignorant, selfish bastards, and they want to virtue signal to the ignorant, selfish bastards who vote for them?
Your comment is ludicrous... a sort of Corbynistic rant.
What is ludicrous is packing yourself into a small enclosed space in the middle of a pandemic and not take sensible precautions that are proven to protect not only yourself but more importantly other people. Those who fail to take those precautions are clearly some combination of selfish and/or ignorant.
MAsk wearing does F all about covid - just look at the UK where rates between countries are no different despite masks being worn more n Scotland /Wales and N ireland. Its just virtue signalling and paranoia that keeps people wearign them (and more irritatingly wanting others to wear them) . Do Labour and Mike Smithson really want us to wear masks forever becasue covid is not going away. Outside of virtue signalling environments nobody is wearing them anyway
If you could point me to the academic study that backs up your point of view, that would be great.
--- Digression time ---
Everybody wants there to be *one* thing that explains the spread of Covid.
There's not one thing.
There are lots of things, from proportion of people traveling on public transit systems, to number of people per household, to different vaccination strategies, and to - yes - the prevalence of masks.
Oh yeah, and luck. Don't forget how massively important luck is in all of this. Florida thought they were special. Until they weren't.
If you do a best fit line, you will find half a dozen variables that have decent predictive power.
All the empirical evidence (and there's LOTS of empirical evidence) is that masks slow the spread of Covid. Now, they also come with costs. And clearly at a certain point, those costs begin to outweigh benefits.
What we need to do is to understand where that line is. What restrictions - if any - are still warranted?
God this site is so full of nerds isnt it? Acdemic Study - just look around with your eyes. the very fact the government benches do not buy into mask wearing/effectivness shows you how much they believe in it (they get the best info) . As I said look at the other home nations rates if you really want "evidence"
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
MAsk wearing does F all about covid - just look at the UK where rates between countries are no different despite masks being worn more n Scotland /Wales and N ireland. Its just virtue signalling and paranoia that keeps people wearign them (and more irritatingly wanting others to wear them) . Do Labour and Mike Smithson really want us to wear masks forever becasue covid is not going away. Outside of virtue signalling environments nobody is wearing them anyway
If you could point me to the academic study that backs up your point of view, that would be great.
--- Digression time ---
Everybody wants there to be *one* thing that explains the spread of Covid.
There's not one thing.
There are lots of things, from proportion of people traveling on public transit systems, to number of people per household, to different vaccination strategies, and to - yes - the prevalence of masks.
Oh yeah, and luck. Don't forget how massively important luck is in all of this. Florida thought they were special. Until they weren't.
If you do a best fit line, you will find half a dozen variables that have decent predictive power.
All the empirical evidence (and there's LOTS of empirical evidence) is that masks slow the spread of Covid. Now, they also come with costs. And clearly at a certain point, those costs begin to outweigh benefits.
What we need to do is to understand where that line is. What restrictions - if any - are still warranted?
Agree with this. Covid is weird. I spent many coffee breaks with a colleague in feb and March 2020, with him moaning about how his coffee tasted shit, and later found out he had a temp 0.1 degree below the cut off for self isolation. He later tested very positive for antibodies, so I am certain he was Covid positive at the time. Didn’t catch it. This was of course the original, and chances are if it was delta I would have. But it’s not as simple as people sometimes want to make out.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
A meeting of the House of Commons as a business meeting: reading facial expressions is essential. I would not do a business meeting with a mask on, I have had several over the past few weeks and no one in any of the meetings would even contemplate it. This includes meetings with people who I know to be very cautious about Covid.
There is no good reason to wear masks in the house of commons. Everyone is (or should be) tested regularly, there is a track and trace system in place; the masks being used are not actually going to do much to prevent transmission with the delta variant. Labour are basically engaging in opportunistic virtue signalling, thats it.
citation needed
What is this, an academic journal? I thought I was posting on a political betting website.
If you want to provide some counter evidence that fabric masks significantly reduce the spread of the delta variant then of course you are more than free to do so. But two generally agreed factors are relevant here: firstly that the delta variant is highly contagious and there is little that can be done to stop its spread, even extreme lockdowns have been unsuccessful; and secondly that if you are going to wear masks to reduce the spread, then they need to be the medical variety. If the decision has been taken that parliament should convene and the business at hand is so important that social distancing should be suspended, then it is illogical to then decide to wear masks, which as I pointed out, actually hinders the the conduct of the business at hand.
The Bangladesh study that I posted showed that while fabric masks were substantially less effective than N95 or surgical ones, they were still a lot more effective than no mask.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
Isn't Delta much more contagious?
And then we get into correlations. So you don't catch it during lunch. Are you much more likely to catch in the car also without a mask? I don't know, but I suspect the two are correlated.
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
All my teaching this semester is in person. We will be recording lectures when we do them and they will be available to students who didn’t or couldn’t attend, but this has been common for years. Have some pity for older academics faced with 200 students in a lecture theatre. There is still risks for Covid, even after double vaccination.
I've been into the office for the first time in well over a year this week and of course I've got a cold. If I travel on public transport - although I will try and avoid it - I will wear a mask to reduce the chances of myself spreading the cold to somebody else. I would help they would do the same for me.
To me it seems like common courtesy and I hope it will continue even after COVID has phased out as the main issue of the day.
I did go on a lovely run on the Thames Path this afternoon which has lifted my spirits, so I am in a good mood despite feeling under the weather.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
Isn't Delta much more contagious?
And then we get into correlations. So you don't catch it during lunch. Are you much more likely to catch in the car also without a mask? I don't know, but I suspect the two are correlated.
It is yes, but not so contagious that anywhere near 95% makes sense. Taking into account the reduced chance of both catching it and passing it on, pretty confident it would be below 50% for two vaccinated people.
Yes the chance of catching it over lunch or in the car are very likely correlated.
Personally I wouldn't bother wearing one in either scenario at the moment, unless the other person wanted me to. Wearing the mask from the door to the table only in the restaurant is the most pointless part of the exercise, in the car makes more sense than that.
On topic: because Tory MPs are ignorant, selfish bastards, and they want to virtue signal to the ignorant, selfish bastards who vote for them?
I don’t see not wearing masks as virtue signalling tbh.
Of course it is. It is saying "look at me, I am an individual, I won't be told what to do by the nanny state. I don't believe in rules and neither should you."
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
My granddaughter starts lectures at Leeds and she has sent me her timetable for next week
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
All my teaching this semester is in person. We will be recording lectures when we do them and they will be available to students who didn’t or couldn’t attend, but this has been common for years. Have some pity for older academics faced with 200 students in a lecture theatre. There is still risks for Covid, even after double vaccination.
That's right. Even PB Tories woiuldn't expect you to sniff several dozen petri dishes with active bacterial colonies several times a week. Or maybe they might, given the history of HMG-uni relations in recent decades. I'm sure glad I don't have to cope with the Research Excellence Framework.
This is also excellent news, the Corbyn rule of Labour is over, the party is now pro Starmer and returning to being a party of the country. This is exactly as I predicted a few weeks ago.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
That was the original strain though. Delta is way more infectious.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
You're a logical thinker... but you keep coming back to the same error: viral load is important. It's not just the chance of infection yes/no that you need to think about, it's also how serious the infection is. Covid is analogue, not digital.
It's like driving up a residential street at 60mph, and reasoning that it's the same risk as driving at 31mph, because both are above the limit.
Is there much evidence that viral load matters? Given that there was a lot of household transmission during lockdowns, where one person caught it outside the home, and then the rest of the household were cooped up with them, you would expect an obvious trend where those who got ill through household transmission got it much worse than those who got ill outside the home, given that within the home, viral loads are almost certainly going to be much higher. The fact that no such trend was obvious suggests it doesn't make a lot of difference.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
I do my Pembroke Dock Tesco shopping on a friday morning. I am yet to see more than 1 or 2 non-mask wearers there.
On topic: because Tory MPs are ignorant, selfish bastards, and they want to virtue signal to the ignorant, selfish bastards who vote for them?
I don’t see not wearing masks as virtue signalling tbh.
Of course it is. It is saying "look at me, I am an individual, I won't be told what to do by the nanny state. I don't believe in rules and neither should you."
Maybe I don’t regard that as a virtue? Mask wearing is probably more seen as virtue signalling.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
I do my Pembroke Dock Tesco shopping on a friday morning. I am yet to see more than 1 or 2 non-mask wearers there.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
That was the original strain though. Delta is way more infectious.
Delta vaccinated vs Original strain unvaccinated is more infectious, but not way more.
President Macron spoke yesterday to PM Johnson, at the latter's request. Mr Johnson expressed his intention to restore cooperation between 🇲🇫 and 🇬🇧, in line with our values and our common interests (the climate, the Indo-Pacific region, the fight against terrorism, etc.)……
The President replied that he was awaiting his suggestions.
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Nothing stopping you from wearing an FFP3 or N95 if you wish to. Personally, I don't feel a need to. However, when I visit Wales next week I will be complying with the stricter rules that are in place there, similar to Scotland.
In Wales I only wear my mask in shops and the doctors
I was parked on Mostyn Street, Llandudno's main shopping street last Saturday and not a mask in sight
Generally many seem to have stopped wearing them even in Asda wherever I visit
Isn't it still a legal requirement to wear a face covering in Asda?
It is not being enforced
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
I do my Pembroke Dock Tesco shopping on a friday morning. I am yet to see more than 1 or 2 non-mask wearers there.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
That was the original strain though. Delta is way more infectious.
Delta vaccinated vs Original strain unvaccinated is more infectious, but not way more.
Depends on language but cdc suggests at least 2x as infectious, and possibly more.
James McAsh @mcash · 17m 40% voting against the GS, when there's no other candidate, is extraordinary. It's normally just waved through as totally uncontroversial.
I suspect that that's the floor, not the ceiling, for the left vote at this conference. #Lab21
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
95% chance of catching it over one lunch? You are having a laugh, even for the unvaccinated, let alone the vaccinated. R would be much higher were that the case.
What's curious is that the pro-mask brigade have to argue that COVID isn't that contagious when it suits their argument.
10-20% chance of catching it one meeting would be a very contagious disease!
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
That was the original strain though. Delta is way more infectious.
Delta vaccinated vs Original strain unvaccinated is more infectious, but not way more.
Depends on language but cdc suggests at least 2x as infectious, and possibly more.
Agreed, that kind of range, but depends on interpretations.
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
Nottingham are face to face tutorials but all lectures are online.
Live and uninterrupted golf on 5LSX. So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport? Nope. Live golf as well.
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
All my teaching this semester is in person. We will be recording lectures when we do them and they will be available to students who didn’t or couldn’t attend, but this has been common for years. Have some pity for older academics faced with 200 students in a lecture theatre. There is still risks for Covid, even after double vaccination.
Big news: after the government conceded a judicial review application which I am acting in (see above) the hardship scheme is now in place so that people who cannot afford hotel quarantine can have fees waived or reduced
I donate to my Oxford college and the other night I got a call from a law undergrad wanting to know how I was getting on. I asked him if they were going to get the full Oxford experience this term (i.e. in person lectures and tutorials) and he said yes.
All my teaching this semester is in person. We will be recording lectures when we do them and they will be available to students who didn’t or couldn’t attend, but this has been common for years. Have some pity for older academics faced with 200 students in a lecture theatre. There is still risks for Covid, even after double vaccination.
Think of the promotion opportunities.
"A bloody war or a sickly season", used to be the Thursday toast in the officers' messtable in the RN.
Live and uninterrupted golf on 5LSX. So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport? Nope. Live golf as well.
Harrington must go down as one of the worst Ryder Cup Captains ever both in his "mate" selections and picks for the forursomes and fourballs
Big news: after the government conceded a judicial review application which I am acting in (see above) the hardship scheme is now in place so that people who cannot afford hotel quarantine can have fees waived or reduced
Live and uninterrupted golf on 5LSX. So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport? Nope. Live golf as well.
Live and uninterrupted golf on 5LSX. So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport? Nope. Live golf as well.
Harrington must go down as one of the worst Ryder Cup Captains ever both in his "mate" selections and picks for the forursomes and fourballs
The only odd decision was not playing Garcia yesterday afternoon.
Were Lowry and Poulter bad picks? I can see why he went with Lowry over Rose, but it's close. Would have been brave to leave out Poulter.
Ultimately the Americans have played better. The captains can make the difference when it's close. This isn't close.
Live and uninterrupted golf on 5LSX. So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport? Nope. Live golf as well.
Harrington must go down as one of the worst Ryder Cup Captains ever both in his "mate" selections and picks for the forursomes and fourballs
The only odd decision was not playing Garcia yesterday afternoon.
Were Lowry and Poulter bad picks? I can see why he went with Lowry over Rose, but it's close. Would have been brave to leave out Poulter.
Ultimately the Americans have played better. The captains can make the difference when it's close. This isn't close.
Ryder Cup captains always get it in the neck. Nick Faldo was vilified by our press (they were delighted we lost). But he got it in the neck for picking his mate from Hertfordshire. Of course, his mate from Hertfordshire did rather well...
So you lot are telling me that when I come to Oxford, London, York and the Lake District for 10 days starting Friday many people are going to be wandering around inside without masks? I find that slightly concerning to be honest.
Yes, masks are pretty much done in London. I'd guess at about 30% of people wearing them indoors in supermarkets. Maybe a bit more on the tube. In pubs or any social venues it's zero.
As high as 30%?
I'd say ~10-16% in my local ones.
Just spent a few hours at Trafford and it was extremely busy with less than 1% mask prevalence there. Which is almost completely back to how it was pre-pandemic.
Its fantastic to see normality return and I worry for those areas which haven't embraced normality over the summer. What's the plan for them now? Return to normal over the winter - or live with restrictions and masks until summer next year?
President Macron spoke yesterday to PM Johnson, at the latter's request. Mr Johnson expressed his intention to restore cooperation between 🇲🇫 and 🇬🇧, in line with our values and our common interests (the climate, the Indo-Pacific region, the fight against terrorism, etc.)……
The President replied that he was awaiting his suggestions.
Most people on the Northern Line were wearing masks (jncluding yours truly) when I checked out the brand new Battersea and Nine Elms tube stations on Tuesday.
Local fuel stations empty. Buying milk and eggs it was interesting to hear Boris mentioned ahead in the queue. ‘Doesn’t live in the real world’ apparently.
Local fuel stations empty. Buying milk and eggs it was interesting to hear Boris mentioned ahead in the queue. ‘Doesn’t live in the real world’ apparently.
Yes, the irritation is widespread. From a couple of of my most Tory relatives to the young urbanites, speaking to people this weekend he's definitely going to take a hit.
One of the reasons I think masks are a poor idea is because we probably want everyone to catch this ASAP before waning immunity catches up with us. Reducing transmission with delta is just delaying everyone catching it. With alpha we were in a position where we could prevent 80% of people getting COVID. With delta that number is basically zero. It's better for them to get it within the first 12 weeks after they are fully vaccinated or after their booster shot for older people.
Personally if I were susceptible to getting COVID, I'd want it now, not in December months after my Pfizer immunity had waned and the NHS was going through its annual winter crisis.
I am 60 and double jabbed and I don't want to catch covid. We took an aged auntie out for lunch who was 90, (auntie not the lunch), she has been double jabbed but nothing is 100% for either of us. I don't want to be responsible for infecting her so we wore masks in the car and whilst walking to the table in the restaurant. Obviously we took the masks off to eat, but we were a good metre apart. (We live in Wales btw). Everyone in the restaurant was obeying the rules.
I don't think those precautions would make much difference to be honest. If one you has it, you'll likely pass it on to the other.
That's the all-or-nothing myth. Catching Covid isn't like being pregnant. Viral load is an important factor. In a few cases it can make the difference between serious illness and mild. It still really is better to be wearing masks when you can, it can save someone's life.
I was thinking more about the not wearing a mask when you're sitting down facing each other. What's the point of wearing a mask for the car ride?
Enclosed space, lots of recycling going on. The more virus you breathe in, the more likely you are to get seriously ill.
Maybe, but if you're worried about it, why go in a car together?
Again with the all-or-nothing fallacy. Some people have a risk appetite that sits in that space between hermitage and orgy. People wear seatbelts to lower the chances of nasty outcomes, but still take the chance of getting in the car in the first place. This is similar, in some ways.
I think vaccinations are much more similar to seatbelts.
Personally I'm sceptical about how much difference masks make. If wearing masks makes people feel that bit safer, then that's absolutely fine. But I suspect they don't make much difference and you won't get me wearing one unless absolutely forced to (in a hospital, for example).
Is your scepticism rooted in scientific evidence, a gut instinct, or something else?
Well, people were weren't wearing masks at the start of COVID and we got cases down through lockdown. Then masks came in and cases went up in the autumn.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
That was a lot of words for "gut instinct". Don't be afraid of admitting you have an opinion that's not scientifically based. We all do about something or other.
Nope. My words were facts.
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
You're a logical thinker... but you keep coming back to the same error: viral load is important. It's not just the chance of infection yes/no that you need to think about, it's also how serious the infection is. Covid is analogue, not digital.
It's like driving up a residential street at 60mph, and reasoning that it's the same risk as driving at 31mph, because both are above the limit.
Is there much evidence that viral load matters? Given that there was a lot of household transmission during lockdowns, where one person caught it outside the home, and then the rest of the household were cooped up with them, you would expect an obvious trend where those who got ill through household transmission got it much worse than those who got ill outside the home, given that within the home, viral loads are almost certainly going to be much higher. The fact that no such trend was obvious suggests it doesn't make a lot of difference.
It's a well known characteristic of viruses generally, and the reason is that the way viruses work is that they hijack your cells, and use them to churn out more copies of themselves. The more of your own bodies cells are pumping out Covid, the longer it takes for the immune system to catch up - even with vaccines.
From a Covid specific point of view, the problem, of course, is calculating how great the initial exposure of the virus is.
Fortunately, there have been a number of proxy studies, almost all looking at hospital settings, where one patient in hospital was infected, and they looked at those who caught the disease from the initial patient, and how sick they got. Those closest to patient zero were more likely to catch it, and were more likely to get really sick than those further away.
Lots of petrol stations out of fuel in Northumberland it seems
Same in Cardiff and the Vale-no queues though!
Just cycles past my local Mossies petrol station. They were no queues there - apparently because the word had got around on the grapevine that there was no fuel!
According to the rumour mill 13k of diesel along sold since 6am before they ran out. I've no idea how much that compares to usual.
Comments
Really, of course, we want the unvaccinated on the crowded train to wear the mask. Sadly, (in the US at least), it is the unvaccinated who ditch their masks first.
Now, maybe cases would have come down faster with masks and gone up faster without them, but the reality is, they don't make much difference. And I think they don't make much difference partly because people only wear them in certain situations. So to go back to the start of this, I think not wearing them in the pub/restaurant makes wearing them in the car pointless.
https://twitter.com/MickJagger/status/1441757252445220865?s=19
China Xinhua News @XHNews
China state-affiliated media
Welcome home! She was arrested because of a rising China. So was her release!
https://twitter.com/DSORennie/status/1441719785109143552?s=20
Indeed I would not envy anyone trying to enforce it
I'm a logical thinker. My view on the visit to the pub with the 90 year old relative is:
Masks in car might reduce the chance of passing on COVID by 50%.
But not wearing a mask when seated in the pub means that if one of you has it, there's probably a 95% chance of passing it on.
So wearing a mask in only the car might reduce the chance of transmission by 2.5%.
And I think I'm being generous with those percentages.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-25/french-trade-minister-gives-australian-counterpart-cold-shoulder/100491546
If you want to provide some counter evidence that fabric masks significantly reduce the spread of the delta variant then of course you are more than free to do so. But two generally agreed factors are relevant here: firstly that the delta variant is highly contagious and there is little that can be done to stop its spread, even extreme lockdowns have been unsuccessful; and secondly that if you are going to wear masks to reduce the spread, then they need to be the medical variety. If the decision has been taken that parliament should convene and the business at hand is so important that social distancing should be suspended, then it is illogical to then decide to wear masks, which as I pointed out, actually hinders the the conduct of the business at hand.
I have some excellent news for you. There have been a *lot* of empirical studies of the effectiveness of mask wearing with regard to Covid, and they all come to exactly the same conclusion: masks are extremely effective at stopping the spread of Covid. From the last two weeks alone we have:
(1) A study of schools in Arizona, which showed that those without masks mandates had 3.5x more Covid cases than those with.
(2) A large scale study out of rural Bangladesh, which involved looking at the proportion of people masked per village. There was a very high degree of correlation between mask wearing and Covid cases.
Surely (like most things in life), this is a curve not a step function.
Two people go for lunch. One of them has COVID. They travel in the same car. What are the chances of the one with COVID spreading it to the other if:
a) they wear masks in the car
b) they don't wear masks in the car
In both scenarios they don't bother with masks in the restaurant.
But it isn't.
Tories have forgotten how to push back against demands to sort everything from fuel queues to Christmas lunch planning
Matthew Parris" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-state-shouldn-t-be-fixing-all-life-s-glitches-bgljn5vdt
--- Digression time ---
Everybody wants there to be *one* thing that explains the spread of Covid.
There's not one thing.
There are lots of things, from proportion of people traveling on public transit systems, to number of people per household, to different vaccination strategies, and to - yes - the prevalence of masks.
Oh yeah, and luck. Don't forget how massively important luck is in all of this. Florida thought they were special. Until they weren't.
If you do a best fit line, you will find half a dozen variables that have decent predictive power.
All the empirical evidence (and there's LOTS of empirical evidence) is that masks slow the spread of Covid. Now, they also come with costs. And clearly at a certain point, those costs begin to outweigh benefits.
What we need to do is to understand where that line is. What restrictions - if any - are still warranted?
From Oxford to Edinburgh, Bristol to Liverpool, the story is the same: online interaction is here to stay
Andrew Tettenborn"
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-vanishing-university/
Anecdote from early covid. The ski chalet, with 12 guests all acting as normal with no social distancing, having a weeks worth of meals together, only half of them caught it. That is not plausible with your 95% estimate.
Fortunately (!) unlikely to happen.
And then we get into correlations. So you don't catch it during lunch. Are you much more likely to catch in the car also without a mask? I don't know, but I suspect the two are correlated.
I've been into the office for the first time in well over a year this week and of course I've got a cold. If I travel on public transport - although I will try and avoid it - I will wear a mask to reduce the chances of myself spreading the cold to somebody else. I would help they would do the same for me.
To me it seems like common courtesy and I hope it will continue even after COVID has phased out as the main issue of the day.
I did go on a lovely run on the Thames Path this afternoon which has lifted my spirits, so I am in a good mood despite feeling under the weather.
Yes the chance of catching it over lunch or in the car are very likely correlated.
Personally I wouldn't bother wearing one in either scenario at the moment, unless the other person wanted me to. Wearing the mask from the door to the table only in the restaurant is the most pointless part of the exercise, in the car makes more sense than that.
This is also excellent news, the Corbyn rule of Labour is over, the party is now pro Starmer and returning to being a party of the country. This is exactly as I predicted a few weeks ago.
Anyway, must be off, see you all soon
Given that there was a lot of household transmission during lockdowns, where one person caught it outside the home, and then the rest of the household were cooped up with them, you would expect an obvious trend where those who got ill through household transmission got it much worse than those who got ill outside the home, given that within the home, viral loads are almost certainly going to be much higher. The fact that no such trend was obvious suggests it doesn't make a lot of difference.
President Macron spoke yesterday to PM Johnson, at the latter's request. Mr Johnson expressed his intention to restore cooperation between 🇲🇫 and 🇬🇧, in line with our values and our common interests (the climate, the Indo-Pacific region, the fight against terrorism, etc.)……
The President replied that he was awaiting his suggestions.
https://twitter.com/franceintheuk/status/1441792309159514113?s=21
@mcash
·
17m
40% voting against the GS, when there's no other candidate, is extraordinary. It's normally just waved through as totally uncontroversial.
I suspect that that's the floor, not the ceiling, for the left vote at this conference. #Lab21
Just as I arrived NUFC took the lead!
So what's on regular 5Live? The usual sports report of all the football reports and other sport?
Nope. Live golf as well.
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1441796929281609737?s=20
I guess the next fight will be over whether journeys were necessary against FCO advice....
Walking past the ED at the hospital on my way home. 20 ambulances in the queue and they ain't waiting for petrol...
Were Lowry and Poulter bad picks? I can see why he went with Lowry over Rose, but it's close. Would have been brave to leave out Poulter.
Ultimately the Americans have played better. The captains can make the difference when it's close. This isn't close.
I'd say ~10-16% in my local ones.
Just spent a few hours at Trafford and it was extremely busy with less than 1% mask prevalence there. Which is almost completely back to how it was pre-pandemic.
Its fantastic to see normality return and I worry for those areas which haven't embraced normality over the summer. What's the plan for them now? Return to normal over the winter - or live with restrictions and masks until summer next year?
Waiting for the first Brexiter to give the hottest take that turning off and on immigrant workers as needed was really what Brexit was all about.
Bonus prizes for the ones saying it that three weeks ago were stressing it was actually long term pay increases in specific sectors.
https://twitter.com/AlexLeoPhillips/status/1441747851848126467
From a Covid specific point of view, the problem, of course, is calculating how great the initial exposure of the virus is.
Fortunately, there have been a number of proxy studies, almost all looking at hospital settings, where one patient in hospital was infected, and they looked at those who caught the disease from the initial patient, and how sick they got. Those closest to patient zero were more likely to catch it, and were more likely to get really sick than those further away.
According to the rumour mill 13k of diesel along sold since 6am before they ran out. I've no idea how much that compares to usual.