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If you’re betting on Raab as next PM/Con leader look away now – politicalbetting.com
If you’re betting on Raab as next PM/Con leader look away now – politicalbetting.com
Whilst the net favourability of both Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer remains firmly in the negative, they have both seen a recent uptick in popularityJohnson: -19 (+6)Starmer: -23 (+7) (Changes from 18 Aug)https://t.co/qmGdoW56SN pic.twitter.com/O8hjVBWlpk
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Gutted for him.
Though yes Sunak is more likely to be next Tory leader when Boris goes with Patel more likely to be the initial candidate of the right
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/06/who-are-winners-and-losers-new-parliamentary-boundary-changes
With regard to landlords, which has been discussed this morning.
As I see it, there are several problems with forcing private landlords to sell their houses.
1. Council's rely on private landlords to house vulnerable people due to the lack of social housing. If they sell up, you create a homelessness crisis. So before you pursued this policy, you would need to build a lot more social housing.
2. A large part of the housing market is made up of people who rent by choice. There are any number of reasons why, but enormous transaction costs, risks and delays of actually trying to buy a property is one, you might need a temporary second home for work or really for any number of other reasons, which means buying is not suitable.
3. A large number of people will not be eligible for assistance from the Council (ie fall under category #1 above), but will have no hope of obtaining mortgage finance. This can be for any number of reasons, but they could be bankrupt, they could have just got out of prison, they could be unable to work due to disability, they could just be hopeless with money. This group of people will always exist, will comprise a sizeable number of the population, and cannot be imagined or willed out of existence.
In the absence of either social housing, of which we have very little due to three plus decades of government policy, or a significant amount of large scale businesses providing rented accommodation; private landlords are undeniably providing an important social function. They are also taking risks and essentially running a business, as one poster pointed out, and in doing so making a significant contribution to the economy as they renovate and manage properties. It makes little sense to me that they should be excluded in principle from operating in the market due to the fact that they are small businesses rather than large businesses.
People who think that the problem can all be solved through council house building don't understand the scale of the problem. The amount of social housing you would need to build to cover scenarios 1,2 and 3 would be enormous, it would require something like a 10 year plan. And I am not sure that Council house building is even desirable, other than to house the most vulnerable and certain categories of key workers in high house price areas.
In conclusion, there is no need at all to ruin this sector of the economy in the ideological pursuit of boosting home ownership. There are other, and better ways that affordability issues can be addressed.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1435143795805458432?s=20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/07/alternative-tax-funded-care/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-promises-fine-banana-24917659 https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1434848420544622598/photo/1
He needs to change this: but it is an opportunity for him to build a Blair-like momentum pre-1997 against a government bedevilled with problems. If he can take it ...
For Johnson, gentle decline, but not much going on really once you exclude his personal (and rally round the flag) Covid bounce.
Edit: I wish this wasn't so, both for my politics (which, although without much enthusiasm, is more pro-Starmer than pro-Johnson) and for my book (I'd like Starmer to come in a bit more before I - probably - lay off enough to cover my stake as next PM; I'm also on Con majority).
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1435135116515463171
Think about it, people are fleeing France (which is in the EU) to come Brexit Britain.
What's not to love?
Though we have been assured on PB that Scotland will take any and all such people.
By coming out with a coherent alternative to the government plan, and arguing for it in ways which might resonate with some of the angry Tories on this issue, he's effectively pointed out what a policy vacuum Starmer is.
The reality is that private sector landlords are likely to be far more efficient than the Council or any third party it appoints at doing up and renting out knackered old houses.
However your point 1 is completely false. If landlords choose to sell then there must be someone who buys as a result, the house isn't demolished. So that could be sold to someone who is currently renting, possibly at a cheaper price since the people seeking to buy are no longer competing with those seeking to use houses as an investment instead, or possibly it could be bought as "social housing" if nobody else seeks to buy it.
Houses should be built because there's a shortage of housing, not because of the mix of housing, there is no need for social housing to be built first.
And with a new wave coming, much bigger than ever, it’s not hard to see these numbers doubling, trebling, and so forth. Someone will have to make ugly decisions pretty soon.
Theoretically, we could let people drown or starve and the message would get through to potential migrants eventually. But as a country, we couldn't, could we?
We could change the basis of the UK's welfare system or have ID cards, but we won't, will we?
So all the government can do is shout. Which becomes ineffectual pretty quickly.
Moral: don't make promises that it's not in your power to keep. If you're not sure about this, ask Nick Clegg.
Does anyone know why the UK's trade balance with non EU countries has improved so much ?
In 2000 the UK had a higher trade deficit was with non EU countries but that faded away in the following decade and from 2011 onwards the UK has been running a large trade surplus with non EU countries.
A problem reportedly going to made even worse today.
He could have dropped snow in the UK and that would have stopped the country whilst Unternehmen Seelöwe went ahead successfully.
Oh, you mean the other Uncle Joe, the less cuddly one!
France has introduced vaxports for everywhere. A young unvaxed female friend of mine was kicked out of a cafe in Avignon yesterday. No vaxport, no croissant.
These vaxports would have been unthinkable 3 years ago, but dire circumstances forced them, and here they are. And the French accept them (and they work, in terms of vaccine uptake)
I can see a point where - if enough boats tried to cross - we would just turn them back with force. Make the French decide whether they live or die.
We are a long long way from that, of course. And hopefully we will never get there.
Shame to hear about your wrist. Do try not to kill yourself. Do you not have pain meds because of the animal-testing thing?!
Would that happen today.
What's more drove to work every day in similar conditions in January 1963, taking my teacher wife to her school en route.
Anyway Andrew Dilnot sounded quietly confident that at least some of his proposals of over ten years ago might be brought in.
[edit] but yes, the Eastern Front more than distracted the Fuehrer from Seeloewe Ausf. 2 in 1941-2.
look at this way if you really wanted a problem fixed would you have patel in charge of it? that tells you how much johnson cares about this
Might have turned out better for the Finns, of course.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58472456
June 1941
Let’s say 5,000 people are crossing every day. That’s nearly 2 million a year.
Clearly, at that stage we will adopt a military solution. Or the people will elect a Putin to do it.
Even the DUP would probably not back Boris now unless he removed the border in the Irish Sea so Boris needs another Tory majority to stay PM
Gravel?
While it's not easy to work out the precise route, the fact that his more credible opponents are effectively gagged by being in the shadow cabinet gives him a significant advantage.
ETA people don't learn from history. 1. Don't march on Moscow 2. If you have to, don't start in June because where that put you in December?
If BoZo cared about education, Gav would be gone.
If he cared about the Foreign Office, Raab would be gone.
If he cared about Health, Hancock would have had plenty of time for hanky panky
Blair would outflank.
Edited extra bit: I was amused earlier this year to discover their word for tortoise means 'shield toad'.
Where is this Putin figure going to come from? That is an interesting question. With the way communications are controlled these days, I don't see a path.
Now we all travel at the speed of the least competent.
The 47 snowdrifts were something else, judging by my mum's old photos.
There were more trains of course, and a lot more freight ones.