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Let them eat cake – politicalbetting.com
Let them eat cake – politicalbetting.com
"Rishi, I don't think getting planning permission for a swimming pool right now is a very good idea." – what someone should have said to the Chancellor https://t.co/JP1DbNiKiq
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Cases down in England (for now...)
Not a good look.
A shame, because he is by far the brightest of the tory bunch and is his own man.
I don't think he would have made some of the mistakes Johnson did, such as caving in to SAGE and the unions at every turn.
https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1431594916132659205
https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/26/rishi-sunaks-wife-claimed-up-to-100000-from-furlough-scheme-14150007/
Just conjecture.
Although I actually can't see the £20 cut going ahead in the end.
Too many of the losers are working poor in Red Wall seats. It would be disaster for what passes for Johnson's election strategy.
I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan, as that is seen as "our" money.
It can boomerang to make it seem like Labour are against people doing well in life, remember electorally successful Labour, very comfortable about people becoming rich.
Fully expect Chelsea to win tonight.
Schools back next week. Big test - as a teacher pointed out on last thread.
Nobody cared Mrs C was very wealthy (again must richer than Dave), it wasn't a secret she was from a wealthy family and also very successful in her own right.
It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.
There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
As for the triple lock Johnson hasn't ruled out an 8% increase for all pensioners.
2) Not from me it doesn't. I can understand why some firms and business owners don't like the idea of having to pay out more in wages but it's the market - supply and demand. For the first time arguably since the late 80s, the "advantage" is with the worker not the employer,
3) Those who argue for immigration don't always see, accept or consider the economic consequences. They take a humanitarian approach - the UK is a rich country able to provide opportunities for hard working individuals and their families from other societies and cultures, Many would support that. In essence, a lot of capitalism is about exploitation - it happens in all sectors whether through under pay, over work or both. As we know, if you come from a place where wages are much lower, the sense of being exploited isn't so evident.
So you're quite wrong.
Try being right for a change.
Betting-wise: Sunak is of course not yet the Tory leader, and not the PM.
@andrew_lilico
Tell everyone Step 3 is going to create 200k cases/day on the basis of no model: 2k RTs. Tell everyone Step 4 is a dangerous & unethical experiment (despite your having got Step 3 wrong), still on the basis of no model: 10k RTs & coverage in every paper. 1/
@JohnSimpsonNews
In the wake of the US retreat from Kabul, the angry, nationalistic Beijing ‘Global Times’ newspaper carries a ferocious warning to Pres Biden over Taiwan: ‘Whoever dares to cross China’s red line on the Taiwan question is seeking its own death.’ After Kabul, no more Mr Nice Guy.
3:11 PM · Aug 28, 2021"
https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1431620533993492482
I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go and as permanent, as you have to then factor in ratchet effect .
And...
"Overall, half a million working-age households in Red Wall seats will lose out (and indeed these contemporary figures may be underestimates of claimant numbers for 2021)."
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/death-by-1000-cuts/
They can easily acquire a little bit of Afghanistan, and that'll give them more potential mineral wealth.
However, it is not I think on the mandatory to increase by CPI list, and it has been salami-sliced over a number of years by Osborne and his successors. It is about 9% lower than it would have been as a result.
The £20 will recover that and then add some more. Sort out the taper to to what Duncan Smith wanted to be before George Osborne got his salami slicer out, and it will be an improvement.
What will happen is that BJ and RS will do just what they did with the NHS pay rises - "no money can't, no money can't, no money can't" followed by a reverse ferret at the last minute. Making a good move look like a political defeat - morons.
(Or is that an inappropriate question?)
https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks
So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.
Interesting that the shift we're all seeing seems to be Lib to Con.
That being said, the issue the Conservatives have is that they have three parties to the Left of them (Libs, NDP, Green), plus the BQ (who are leftish and nationalist). Even ignoring the BQ, that's a solid 51-52% of the electorate that is Left-ish, and could vote tactically.
To the right of the Conservatives is the newly formed People Party of Canada - who are sufficiently new that while they might be squeezed in the run up to the election, they are unlikely to know where and how they should vote tactically.
My gut is that we will see the Libs lose about 25 seats, the BQ will lose about 5, while the Cons gain 20, and the NDP 10.
That would leave the Libs + the NDP with the narrowest of majorities.
They *shouldn’t* vote for people who cut their benefits perhaps but the equations people make when voting are pretty complex. I think it would be reckless to assume one thing will change their minds.
Especially as of course large numbers of Red Wall Tories are actually pensioners, not those on UC.
According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/
Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.
More to do though, as I pointed out above.
However from a PR perspective TSE is right, if the Chancellor is moving from giving away money, in which scenario he can afford to have a lavish lifestyle to cutting UC for the poorest and maybe the triple lock for those reliant on the state pension too then a bit of Brown, Darling, Hammond style dour austerity in his personal life would not go amiss
That being said, the big problem with Delta is that those infected exhibit extremely high levels of viral shedding - up to 1,000x more than with Alpha. It therefore has the ability to break through vaccines (the more of a dose of Covid you get, the less warning your immune system has), and it also spreads much more quickly.
A school with one pupil with Alpha means they might be putting out a viral load of 1. If they have 20 students with Delta, that's a viral load of 20,000 that's being distributed around.
That's going to result in very, very few unvaccinated people avoiding Delta. And it's going to mean those people who do get it (especially if they are older) are more likely to get very sick. (Viral load matters, kids!)
The good news is that most people who've had the vaccine, so long as they get only a small dose of Delta, will end up with only a bit of the sniffles (or hopefully entirely asymptomatic), and it will have been merely a booster shot. And therefore we can also look forward to Delta burning out quickly, as it simply infects so many people, so quickly.
My gut is that September and October are going to be a little ugly, and that the government will end up regretting not using the ample vaccine resources the UK has. Really, given the extreme infectiousness of Delta, those who got the mRNA vaccines should be getting an AZ booster, while those that got AZ should get a Moderna/Pfizer one. Likewise, kids should get vaccinated. Even if Delta isn't going to kill them, the vaccine dramatically reduce the amount of time they are infectious to others, protecting other members of the community.
His fans would lap it up. Although he would probably put something in the code that if you tried to trade it for a profit within a few years, it self destructs.
However the irony is that even that big a lead for the Conservatives would not guarantee them most seats, because of NDP tactical voting for the Liberals in Ontario marginal seats, the lack of any real Tory presence in Quebec and huge majorities for the Conservatives in rural Alberta in seats which are ultra safe Conservative anyway.
So it is possible the Conservatives could win the popular vote for two elections in a row and yet still fail to win most seats, with Trudeau scraping home to stay PM.
Yet I doubt you would hear the left liberals who were complaining so much about how Hillary and Gore won the popular vote in 2016 and 2000 doing much complaining on Erin O'Toole's behalf if that came to pass
With Bottarse only P8 and a 5 place penalty from Hungary's bowl-a-rama making him start P13, you have to ask what is holding Toto Wolff back from making the switch.
If Labour can force at least some kind of Commons vote on this, then it is entirely possible that the Government would lose it. UC is a reserved competence so the SNP are free to vote against the cut without breaking their self-denying ordnance, so it wouldn't take much more than 40 Tories to side with the Opposition to bring about a defeat.
The whole idea is to give an idea as to what everyone might aspire. Like duck houses and shepherd's caravans.
This with the lack of levelling up, I am increasingly confident of my Labour lead bet paying off soon
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1431529427486351361?s=19
They make the Camerons look like paupers in comparison