Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Let them eat cake – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2021 in General
Let them eat cake – politicalbetting.com

"Rishi, I don't think getting planning permission for a swimming pool right now is a very good idea." – what someone should have said to the Chancellor https://t.co/JP1DbNiKiq

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • 32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited August 2021
    One of the papers has a story about Rishi's missus claiming furlough payments.....

    Not a good look.

    A shame, because he is by far the brightest of the tory bunch and is his own man.

    I don't think he would have made some of the mistakes Johnson did, such as caving in to SAGE and the unions at every turn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    I really hope they do not cut UC. But that is an entirely different question as to how Rishi spending his own money is anyone's business but his and his wife's (whose money it probably is).
  • One of the papers has a story about Rishi's missus claiming furlough payments.....

    Not a good look.

    That's an old story.

    https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/26/rishi-sunaks-wife-claimed-up-to-100000-from-furlough-scheme-14150007/
  • please....its a she-cline....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
  • please....its a she-cline....
    The Canadian Theresa May?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
    The rate of growth in Scotland has also slowed - so fingers crossed…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.
  • DougSeal said:

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
    The rate of growth in Scotland has also slowed - so fingers crossed…
    My Scottish boss is worried as hell about the festival being a super spreader event.
  • Tories continuing their slow fall, Sunak will be in net negative in a few months I suspect
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Covid bumping steadily along, not growing ("exponentially"). Mainly delta. Could it be that the delta strain has a shorter initial unsymptomatic phase pulling R down to 1?

    Just conjecture.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
    The rate of growth in Scotland has also slowed - so fingers crossed…
    My Scottish boss is worried as hell about the festival being a super spreader event.
    Given the mitigation’s the festival is using vs none at all in the West End he really shouldn’t worry. It’s not going to be Boardmasters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited August 2021
    Good call on the header.

    Although I actually can't see the £20 cut going ahead in the end.

    Too many of the losers are working poor in Red Wall seats. It would be disaster for what passes for Johnson's election strategy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan, as that is seen as "our" money.

    It can boomerang to make it seem like Labour are against people doing well in life, remember electorally successful Labour, very comfortable about people becoming rich.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DougSeal said:

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
    The rate of growth in Scotland has also slowed - so fingers crossed…
    My Scottish boss is worried as hell about the festival being a super spreader event.
    It was much quieter than normal and nearly all the fringe stuff was outside in the street. I think it will probably be ok although the percentage of masks on the Royal Mile has declined precipitously over the last fortnight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It's not his money. He's a pauper compared to his wife. ;)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Fairly limited opportunities I would have thought. Unless heated.
  • Just stuck some bets on Matip or Van Dijk being first or anytime goalscorers, if Matip scores first it'll be a 80/1 winner.

    Fully expect Chelsea to win tonight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    DavidL said:

    I really hope they do not cut UC. But that is an entirely different question as to how Rishi spending his own money is anyone's business but his and his wife's (whose money it probably is).

    Makes you wonder though whether Johnson is becoming insanely jealous of Rishi's money? I mean our poor PM can't even afford decent wallpaper at the moment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It seems to play quite well in places when the target is the "metropolitan liberal elite".
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2021
    Has the Labour leadership made the connection yet, or is this just the Socialist Campaign Group being irrelevant as usual
  • Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It can boomerang to make it seem like Labour are against people doing well in life, remember electorally successful Labour, very comfortable about people becoming rich.

    I think there's a difference between then now.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    Good news. Although iSAGE will tell us the numbers are appalling etc etc.

    Schools back next week. Big test - as a teacher pointed out on last thread.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DavidL said:

    I really hope they do not cut UC. But that is an entirely different question as to how Rishi spending his own money is anyone's business but his and his wife's (whose money it probably is).

    Makes you wonder though whether Johnson is becoming insanely jealous of Rishi's money? I mean our poor PM can't even afford decent wallpaper at the moment.
    It's ok, he got someone to buy him some.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    RobD said:

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It's not his money. He's a pauper compared to his wife. ;)
    The other thing is, it isn't a secret they are mega wealthy. Again it plays badly if you claim i'm just a poor boy, from a poor family....with two kitchens and domestic staff....

    Nobody cared Mrs C was very wealthy (again must richer than Dave), it wasn't a secret she was from a wealthy family and also very successful in her own right.
  • TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    What's the latest on those two things? The only way the 8% would be palatable was if it somehow only applied to the poorest pensioners.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It can boomerang to make it seem like Labour are against people doing well in life, remember electorally successful Labour, very comfortable about people becoming rich.

    I think there's a difference between then now.
    Cameron / Osborne "austerity" is different from removing a temporary UC uplift?
  • Rather doubt any Labour attack will resonate with the public. They need to suggest a credible alternative and they have singularly failed to so this on UC or anything else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
  • RobD said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    What's the latest on those two things? The only way the 8% would be palatable was if it somehow only applied to the poorest pensioners.
    Sunak, Johnson, and Coffey have said the UC is going ahead. My friend who works at the JCP says UC recipients have been getting messages in their journals saying the uplift ends in September.

    As for the triple lock Johnson hasn't ruled out an 8% increase for all pensioners.
  • Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It can boomerang to make it seem like Labour are against people doing well in life, remember electorally successful Labour, very comfortable about people becoming rich.

    I think there's a difference between then now.
    Cameron / Osborne "austerity" is different from removing a temporary UC uplift?
    Yes, all in together, and as I noted, there's a lot of Tory MPs, unlike 2010-15, who are on the record opposed to this looming austerity for UC recipients.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    FPT


    1) Would a Corbyn government have been guaranteed ? Certainly not but it looks like the best opportunity for one.

    2) Many of the low paid have certainly had a more difficult experience during the pandemic but the possibility of higher wages for them now brings a pavlovian hostility.

    3) Some businesses often wants an unlimited supply of ever cheaper workers. The sort of business exploitation which has traditionally been condemned by those on the centre left. Yet some such people want to facilitate such exploitation.

    1) I think the reasons people had for not supporting Corbyn in 2019 would have been there whatever the circumstances. Yes, he came close in 2017 but no one thought he was really going to win though he gave plenty a fright getting as close as he did. His other problem would have been Government formation.

    2) Not from me it doesn't. I can understand why some firms and business owners don't like the idea of having to pay out more in wages but it's the market - supply and demand. For the first time arguably since the late 80s, the "advantage" is with the worker not the employer,

    3) Those who argue for immigration don't always see, accept or consider the economic consequences. They take a humanitarian approach - the UK is a rich country able to provide opportunities for hard working individuals and their families from other societies and cultures, Many would support that. In essence, a lot of capitalism is about exploitation - it happens in all sectors whether through under pay, over work or both. As we know, if you come from a place where wages are much lower, the sense of being exploited isn't so evident.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    I presume the header tries to rescue some TSE betting. Quite dismal.
  • Omnium said:

    I presume the header tries to rescue some TSE betting. Quite dismal.

    I'm one of the people who followed the Sunak tip back in 2019.

    So you're quite wrong.

    Try being right for a change.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    At lot (most?) of the people who get it are working already.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    Not disagreeing with this argument, but it is an example of the famous ratchet effect in public spending.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,452

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    A betting market on this would be interesting. I think it is more likely pensioners get the 8% than most on here.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    I presume the header tries to rescue some TSE betting. Quite dismal.

    I'm one of the people who followed the Sunak tip back in 2019.

    So you're quite wrong.

    Try being right for a change.
    Well that's fair enough. And sorry, yes, I was being mean. There's a slight rescue-passage about some headers, you and Mike really do keep to the light though.

    Betting-wise: Sunak is of course not yet the Tory leader, and not the PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    Tell everyone Step 3 is going to create 200k cases/day on the basis of no model: 2k RTs. Tell everyone Step 4 is a dangerous & unethical experiment (despite your having got Step 3 wrong), still on the basis of no model: 10k RTs & coverage in every paper. 1/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    Not disagreeing with this argument, but it is an example of the famous ratchet effect in public spending.
    Indisputably and I really struggled to understand the rationale for the extra £20 in the first place to be honest. But having done that...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "John Simpson
    @JohnSimpsonNews

    In the wake of the US retreat from Kabul, the angry, nationalistic Beijing ‘Global Times’ newspaper carries a ferocious warning to Pres Biden over Taiwan: ‘Whoever dares to cross China’s red line on the Taiwan question is seeking its own death.’ After Kabul, no more Mr Nice Guy.
    3:11 PM · Aug 28, 2021"

    https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1431620533993492482
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,452

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    Tell everyone Step 3 is going to create 200k cases/day on the basis of no model: 2k RTs. Tell everyone Step 4 is a dangerous & unethical experiment (despite your having got Step 3 wrong), still on the basis of no model: 10k RTs & coverage in every paper. 1/

    Is this a model predicting his retweets?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    At lot (most?) of the people who get it are working already.
    I don't think most but entitlement will fall as wages increase and I think we are going to see a fair bit of that even after the technical uplift caused by the end of furlough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go and as permanent, as you have to then factor in ratchet effect .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money.
    Way above the minimum sensibile imho.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    6 million families says Resolution Foundation.

    And...

    "Overall, half a million working-age households in Red Wall seats will lose out (and indeed these contemporary figures may be underestimates of claimant numbers for 2021)."

    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/death-by-1000-cuts/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
    But its was supposed to be temporary due to extreme circumstances of COVID, which have now passed. Same as we aren't giving oldies free food boxes, which was £20+ a week worth.
  • geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because the rates of benefits are painfully low, £20 a week will make a hell of a difference to the lives of these people and there is still plenty of incentives to go and find one of those 1m vacancies. They will also have got used to having it now so taking it away again will hurt all the more.
    Not disagreeing with this argument, but it is an example of the famous ratchet effect in public spending.
    Wait until you hear the ratchet effect on the HS2 budget.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    I should be clear I am not arguing UC shouldn't increase at all, but a permanent £1000 uplift is very very expensive and far out of proportion to any uplifts other demographics will be receiving.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
    I'm just wondering about the impact of increasing inflation. The benefits are by definition indexed but only after the inflation, so to speak, so there is a further effective cut for the year of somethijng like half the rate of inflation (depending on the shape of the graph with time, obvs). So you need to add that to the flatrate £20 cut, worst relatively speaking for the lowest paid (in wages plus UC).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Andy_JS said:

    "John Simpson
    @JohnSimpsonNews

    In the wake of the US retreat from Kabul, the angry, nationalistic Beijing ‘Global Times’ newspaper carries a ferocious warning to Pres Biden over Taiwan: ‘Whoever dares to cross China’s red line on the Taiwan question is seeking its own death.’ After Kabul, no more Mr Nice Guy.
    3:11 PM · Aug 28, 2021"

    https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1431620533993492482

    I don't think that China will risk trying to subjugate Taiwan. There's so little to gain and so much to lose.

    They can easily acquire a little bit of Afghanistan, and that'll give them more potential mineral wealth.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
    The question is whether recipients consider it temporary or permanent. I would have thought the former, to tide them over the pandemic. But if it is seen as temporary then they would not be expected to make long-term decisions based on it. However if maintaining it at the new level means it is seen as permanent then long-term decisions (e.g. job, house, education) can be expected to be affected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I should be clear I am not arguing UC shouldn't increase at all, but a permanent £1000 uplift is very very expensive and far out of proportion to any uplifts other demographics will be receiving.

    And what of those on other benefits? ESA has not had an uplift.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go and as permanent, as you have to then factor in ratchet effect .
    Yes, it's a lot of money. But I keep reading on here, and elsewhere, that a) there are loads of job vacancies, and b) wages are rising fast, especially in lower paid sectors. So logically the UC bill should go down quite rapidly, as a) more people move into work, and b) those already in work get less (tapered) UC as their wages rise. That may be sufficient to cover a £20 rise for those remaining on UC.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    edited August 2021
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
    I'm just wondering about the impact of increasing inflation. The benefits are by definition indexed but only after the inflation, so to speak, so there is a further effective cut for the year of somethijng like half the rate of inflation (depending on the shape of the graph with time, obvs). So you need to add that to the flatrate £20 cut, worst relatively speaking for the lowest paid (in wages plus UC).
    Inflation is still not very exciting, even if it is a bit higher than we are used to. UC for a single person over 25 is currently £411.51 a month. That is £95.70 a week so inflation of 3% would be £2.87. it could be used to take a bit off the £20 but it is not an answer to it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    I should be clear I am not arguing UC shouldn't increase at all, but a permanent £1000 uplift is very very expensive and far out of proportion to any uplifts other demographics will be receiving.

    And what of those on other benefits? ESA has not had an uplift.
    Uplifts to all. Double uplifts all round. Come along!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    If Messi had just done what Mount did, we would be seeing clips for the rest of the week. The technical ability of young English players is now up there with the best.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    My question would be what is the justification for £1000 a year extra in benefit payment, now everything is back open, furlough coming to an end, lots of vacancies in the economy....£1000 a year is a hell of an increase to be permanent, in the same way as pensioners getting 8-9% extra is a huge increase.

    Because UC was too low in the first place, and even with the extra it will still be low. I'm not sure that £20 a week is a 'hell of an increase', is it? It's not enough to be a disincentive to work, or work longer hours, is it? The mostly affluent PBers wouldn't even notice it, but for those who are poor £20 makes life just a little bit easier.
    My point was as a permanent increase, percentage wise, £1000 uplift is an incredibly large increase. One that I doubt any politician would have mandated had there been no COVID, and massively above and beyond say NHS workers pay increase, pensioners triple lock, etc.

    I believe this increase is £6 billion a year increase in benefit spending. That is a lot of money in one go (and permanent...as you have to then factor in ratchet effect) .
    The same, of course, is true in reverse. This is a hell of a cut.
    I'm just wondering about the impact of increasing inflation. The benefits are by definition indexed but only after the inflation, so to speak, so there is a further effective cut for the year of somethijng like half the rate of inflation (depending on the shape of the graph with time, obvs). So you need to add that to the flatrate £20 cut, worst relatively speaking for the lowest paid (in wages plus UC).
    I think they use an index month. Not sure which it is for Universal Credit. If it is September, then they have quite nicely whumped themselves in the balls.

    However, it is not I think on the mandatory to increase by CPI list, and it has been salami-sliced over a number of years by Osborne and his successors. It is about 9% lower than it would have been as a result.

    The £20 will recover that and then add some more. Sort out the taper to to what Duncan Smith wanted to be before George Osborne got his salami slicer out, and it will be an improvement.

    What will happen is that BJ and RS will do just what they did with the NHS pay rises - "no money can't, no money can't, no money can't" followed by a reverse ferret at the last minute. Making a good move look like a political defeat - morons.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited August 2021

    If Messi had just done what Mount did, we would be seeing clips for the rest of the week. The technical ability of young English players is now up there with the best.

    Why has your (new?) avatar got a landing strip on his/her head?

    (Or is that an inappropriate question?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    MattW said:

    If Messi had just done what Mount did, we would be seeing clips for the rest of the week. The technical ability of young English players is now up there with the best.

    Why has your (new?) avatar got a landing strip on his head?

    (Or is that an inappropriate question?)
    Its a joke....its a crypto-punk NFT. At the moment they are selling for many millions of dollars and people who buy them often "flex" with having them as their avatars on twitter etc.

    https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks
  • We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MattW said:

    If Messi had just done what Mount did, we would be seeing clips for the rest of the week. The technical ability of young English players is now up there with the best.

    Why has your (new?) avatar got a landing strip on his head?

    (Or is that an inappropriate question?)
    Its a joke....its a crypto-punk NFT. At the moment they are selling for many millions of dollars and people who buy them often "flex" with having them as their avatars on twitter etc.

    https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks
    How many millions did you pay for yours? ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    edited August 2021
    Heart of stone, etc.

    Interesting that the shift we're all seeing seems to be Lib to Con.

    That being said, the issue the Conservatives have is that they have three parties to the Left of them (Libs, NDP, Green), plus the BQ (who are leftish and nationalist). Even ignoring the BQ, that's a solid 51-52% of the electorate that is Left-ish, and could vote tactically.

    To the right of the Conservatives is the newly formed People Party of Canada - who are sufficiently new that while they might be squeezed in the run up to the election, they are unlikely to know where and how they should vote tactically.

    My gut is that we will see the Libs lose about 25 seats, the BQ will lose about 5, while the Cons gain 20, and the NDP 10.

    That would leave the Libs + the NDP with the narrowest of majorities.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    For how many years did they vote for Labour despite Labour’s siphoning off money designed to support them into air conditioned and chauffeur driven Mercedes for councillors, or MPs who didn’t even know where their seat was?

    They *shouldn’t* vote for people who cut their benefits perhaps but the equations people make when voting are pretty complex. I think it would be reckless to assume one thing will change their minds.

    Especially as of course large numbers of Red Wall Tories are actually pensioners, not those on UC.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited August 2021

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    You sure? Maybe that is 'RP knows'.

    According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/

    Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.

    More to do though, as I pointed out above.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2021
    The fact Rishi is son in law of a billionaire, ex Goldman Sachs banker, about to build a swimming pool and tennis court at his rural Yorkshire mansion to go with the Kensington mansion and apartment in Santa Monica he and his wife own would not normally be a problem. As a Tory I also take the view that if you have the money and got it legally then you can spend it how you like.

    However from a PR perspective TSE is right, if the Chancellor is moving from giving away money, in which scenario he can afford to have a lavish lifestyle to cutting UC for the poorest and maybe the triple lock for those reliant on the state pension too then a bit of Brown, Darling, Hammond style dour austerity in his personal life would not go amiss
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    DougSeal said:

    32,406 cases, 133 deaths

    Cases down in England (for now...)

    England down 4 days in a row vs previous week - so the 7 day average has started trending down...
    The rate of growth in Scotland has also slowed - so fingers crossed…
    My Scottish boss is worried as hell about the festival being a super spreader event.
    It was much quieter than normal and nearly all the fringe stuff was outside in the street. I think it will probably be ok although the percentage of masks on the Royal Mile has declined precipitously over the last fortnight.
    numbers are still horrendous
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    I wouldn't be surprised if Banksy did an NFT collection.

    His fans would lap it up. Although he would probably put something in the code that if you tried to trade it for a profit within a few years, it self destructs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,452
    ydoethur said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    For how many years did they vote for Labour despite Labour’s siphoning off money designed to support them into air conditioned and chauffeur driven Mercedes for councillors, or MPs who didn’t even know where their seat was?

    They *shouldn’t* vote for people who cut their benefits perhaps but the equations people make when voting are pretty complex. I think it would be reckless to assume one thing will change their minds.

    Especially as of course large numbers of Red Wall Tories are actually pensioners, not those on UC.
    The last sentence is the important and forgotten one. Workers, whether taxpayers or UC recipients, were fairly evenly split despite the big Tory win. It is the pensioners who will get their 8% whilst their kids and grandkids are either expected to fund tax rises to fund it, or forego the UC increase that boosts their minimum wage. The pensioners will be rewarded by Boris for their blind loyalty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2021
    That is the worst recent poll for the Liberals, most other polls have the Conservatives only with a narrow lead or the two parties tied.

    However the irony is that even that big a lead for the Conservatives would not guarantee them most seats, because of NDP tactical voting for the Liberals in Ontario marginal seats, the lack of any real Tory presence in Quebec and huge majorities for the Conservatives in rural Alberta in seats which are ultra safe Conservative anyway.

    So it is possible the Conservatives could win the popular vote for two elections in a row and yet still fail to win most seats, with Trudeau scraping home to stay PM.

    Yet I doubt you would hear the left liberals who were complaining so much about how Hillary and Gore won the popular vote in 2016 and 2000 doing much complaining on Erin O'Toole's behalf if that came to pass
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    A betting market on this would be interesting. I think it is more likely pensioners get the 8% than most on here.
    I will be upset if I don't get my 8%.
  • MattW said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    You sure? Maybe that is 'RP knows'.

    According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/

    Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.

    More to do though, as I pointed out above.
    So 6 out of 7 Tory MPs support the cut. And so many of them instinctively think the cut is thr right thing. Which is why they always vote to cut everything they can when they can.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    The problem is that that requires primary legislation. And there are lots of Conservative MPs with elderly constituents (and sub 5,000 majorities) who won't fancy voting for that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MattW said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    You sure? Maybe that is 'RP knows'.

    According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/

    Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.

    More to do though, as I pointed out above.
    So 6 out of 7 Tory MPs support the cut. And so many of them instinctively think the cut is thr right thing. Which is why they always vote to cut everything they can when they can.
    I don't think that follows. The article says that 1 in 7 have spoken out against it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,452
    malcolmg said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    A betting market on this would be interesting. I think it is more likely pensioners get the 8% than most on here.
    I will be upset if I don't get my 8%.
    Judging by your posting, surely you will be upset by something or other regardless?
  • Anyway. Anyone watch F1 qualy from Spa? Horrendous weather there (as it has been for days), Lando smashed into the wall after being dominant all day, and George Russell sticks a Williams onto P2.

    With Bottarse only P8 and a 5 place penalty from Hungary's bowl-a-rama making him start P13, you have to ask what is holding Toto Wolff back from making the switch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    RobD said:

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It's not his money. He's a pauper compared to his wife. ;)
    The other thing is, it isn't a secret they are mega wealthy. Again it plays badly if you claim i'm just a poor boy, from a poor family....with two kitchens and domestic staff....

    Nobody cared Mrs C was very wealthy (again must richer than Dave), it wasn't a secret she was from a wealthy family and also very successful in her own right.
    She’s rich? I thought she grew up on an estate in Sheffield.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    A betting market on this would be interesting. I think it is more likely pensioners get the 8% than most on here.
    I will be upset if I don't get my 8%.
    Judging by your posting, surely you will be upset by something or other regardless?
    Don't be a silly Billy, look behind the headlines
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Definitely a pen, red card ridiculous.
  • RobD said:

    MattW said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    You sure? Maybe that is 'RP knows'.

    According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/

    Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.

    More to do though, as I pointed out above.
    So 6 out of 7 Tory MPs support the cut. And so many of them instinctively think the cut is thr right thing. Which is why they always vote to cut everything they can when they can.
    I don't think that follows. The article says that 1 in 7 have spoken out against it.
    Yes. 1 in 7 are opposed to the cut. So 6 in 7 aren't opposed, at least not vocally. They'll follow the whip, and the whip will be to cut. So for those new red wallers with small majorities the message is "yes we're making you poorer. But we've made you better off giving you Brexit. So you Love Us.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut.

    Except that it is clear that a large number of Tory MPs actually wouldn't feel good about cutting this benefit, as TSE has described. What we ought to be asking is whether there is any mechanism available that might be able either to force the Government into keeping the uplift, or at least to try to embarrass it into so doing.

    If Labour can force at least some kind of Commons vote on this, then it is entirely possible that the Government would lose it. UC is a reserved competence so the SNP are free to vote against the cut without breaking their self-denying ordnance, so it wouldn't take much more than 40 Tories to side with the Opposition to bring about a defeat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut. What will be fascinating is the response. This is going to clobber red wall Tories hard. They've cheered Boris on regardless of what he's done so far, even backing stuff that is self-harming.

    So will people who take that £20 a week cut keep voting Tory? I say "keep voting" because sure as shit many of them voted Tory in 2019. The Tories are about to take this big chunk of money off them *and* patronise them by saying the country can't afford it. Will take people deep into Kool-Aid drinking to back their own slide towards poverty again.

    You sure? Maybe that is 'RP knows'.

    According to the Biggy Shoe 1 in 7 Tory MPs are opposed to removing the £20 supplement.
    https://www.bigissue.com/latest/politics/at-least-1-in-7-tory-mps-oppose-universal-credit-cut-amid-growing-backlash/

    Under BJ they unfroze UC in his first budget and uprated by inflation.

    More to do though, as I pointed out above.
    So 6 out of 7 Tory MPs support the cut. And so many of them instinctively think the cut is thr right thing. Which is why they always vote to cut everything they can when they can.
    I don't think that follows. The article says that 1 in 7 have spoken out against it.
    Yes. 1 in 7 are opposed to the cut. So 6 in 7 aren't opposed, at least not vocally. They'll follow the whip, and the whip will be to cut. So for those new red wallers with small majorities the message is "yes we're making you poorer. But we've made you better off giving you Brexit. So you Love Us.
    No, you can't say that. All you know for certain is 1 in 7 have publicly stated they are opposed.
  • All got a bit tasty.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140
    HYUFD said:

    The fact Rishi is son in law of a billionaire, ex Goldman Sachs banker, about to build a swimming pool and tennis court at his rural Yorkshire mansion to go with the Kensington mansion and apartment in Santa Monica he and his wife own would not normally be a problem. As a Tory I also take the view that if you have the money and got it legally then you can spend it how you like.

    However from a PR perspective TSE is right, if the Chancellor is moving from giving away money, in which scenario he can afford to have a lavish lifestyle to cutting UC for the poorest and maybe the triple lock for those reliant on the state pension too then a bit of Brown, Darling, Hammond style dour austerity in his personal life would not go amiss

    What is the point of being a successful Tory if you can't spend your money because it might upset the proles?

    The whole idea is to give an idea as to what everyone might aspire. Like duck houses and shepherd's caravans.
  • If BoJo's Tories want to look like the old Tories, cutting UC seems a good place to start.

    This with the lack of levelling up, I am increasingly confident of my Labour lead bet paying off soon
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    malcolmg said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I find this hard to get excited about. Rich people gonna rich. And create employment for Yorkshire's (?) swimming pool industry.

    Yeah. Basically, the Labour MPs and TSE are saying no Conservative MP should spend any money on anything someone can stretch to describe as luxury spending, ever. Only Tory-haters are going to gobble that up.
    I'm not saying that, I hate the politics of envy, is why I can never be a leftie.

    It's the toxic mix of giving pensioners an 8% increase and cutting UC for the poorest in society.

    There's many Tory MPs who have gone on the record to oppose the UC cut, this is going to get messy for Sunak.
    Pensioners won't get their 8% though. Sunak isn't an idiot, he will find a fudge so they get 3% just like the NHS.
    A betting market on this would be interesting. I think it is more likely pensioners get the 8% than most on here.
    I will be upset if I don't get my 8%.
    Brace, brace.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,452
    pigeon said:

    We know the Tories will not only cut UC but feel good making that cut.

    Except that it is clear that a large number of Tory MPs actually wouldn't feel good about cutting this benefit, as TSE has described. What we ought to be asking is whether there is any mechanism available that might be able either to force the Government into keeping the uplift, or at least to try to embarrass it into so doing.

    If Labour can force at least some kind of Commons vote on this, then it is entirely possible that the Government would lose it. UC is a reserved competence so the SNP are free to vote against the cut without breaking their self-denying ordnance, so it wouldn't take much more than 40 Tories to side with the Opposition to bring about a defeat.
    Just leave it to Rashford, he is already 2-0 up against the govt and with the injury and Ronaldo arriving has plenty of time spare to make it 3-0.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    The fact Rishi is son in law of a billionaire, ex Goldman Sachs banker, about to build a swimming pool and tennis court at his rural Yorkshire mansion to go with the Kensington mansion and apartment in Santa Monica he and his wife own would not normally be a problem. As a Tory I also take the view that if you have the money and got it legally then you can spend it how you like.

    However from a PR perspective TSE is right, if the Chancellor is moving from giving away money, in which scenario he can afford to have a lavish lifestyle to cutting UC for the poorest and maybe the triple lock for those reliant on the state pension too then a bit of Brown, Darling, Hammond style dour austerity in his personal life would not go amiss

    What is the point of being a successful Tory if you can't spend your money because it might upset the proles?

    The whole idea is to give an idea as to what everyone might aspire. Like duck houses and shepherd's caravans.
    You have to be able to read the room.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2021

    RobD said:

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It's not his money. He's a pauper compared to his wife. ;)
    The other thing is, it isn't a secret they are mega wealthy. Again it plays badly if you claim i'm just a poor boy, from a poor family....with two kitchens and domestic staff....

    Nobody cared Mrs C was very wealthy (again must richer than Dave), it wasn't a secret she was from a wealthy family and also very successful in her own right.
    Sunak's wife has a net worth of £430 million, Sunak himself has a net worth of £200 million most of it from shares in his father in laws companies as well as his time at Goldman Sachs.

    They make the Camerons look like paupers in comparison
  • HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Labour tried the same all the time with Cameron / Osborne anytime they announced "cuts".

    I am not sure the politics of envy plays very well. If people are buying stuff with their own money they made it doesn't seem to go down badly, it is when they are using tax payers money to enrich themselves that the shit hits the fan.

    It's not his money. He's a pauper compared to his wife. ;)
    The other thing is, it isn't a secret they are mega wealthy. Again it plays badly if you claim i'm just a poor boy, from a poor family....with two kitchens and domestic staff....

    Nobody cared Mrs C was very wealthy (again must richer than Dave), it wasn't a secret she was from a wealthy family and also very successful in her own right.
    Sunak's wife has a net worth of £430 million, Sunak himself has a net worth of £200 million.

    They make the Camerons look like paupers in comparison
    Don't forget his Daddy-in-Law :lol:
This discussion has been closed.