I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. We have bought his extra pfizer for exactly this reason. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
That sounds very optimistic. I think parties tend to need a few losses before the learn to be competent again.
Seems to have taken Labour only one? I never considered Ed M particularly incompetent in comparison to what has come next. Less competent than Cameron though.
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
The other downside is side effects.
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
They are certainly connecting pharmacies up to allow them to log vaccinations, which can only be for boosters (possibly to be given at the same time as flu jabs). There doesn't seem to be a big rush though, unlike with the early vax centres.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
The other downside is side effects.
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
That's a BS argument. Not vaccinating and having a 4th wave will do the same. And absolutely no signs of mass vaccine hesitancy in the UK.
People are clued up enough to know this is gen 1 of thess vaccines, they aren't perfect, but they are having an effect and way way better than nothing.
I think its far more dangerous not to and we then see masses of grannies filling up ICUs and people are incredibly angry at the government for not doing something and people lose trust.
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
That sounds very optimistic. I think parties tend to need a few losses before the learn to be competent again.
Seems to have taken Labour only one? I never considered Ed M particularly incompetent in comparison to what has come next. Less competent than Cameron though.
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
Ed M was fine. Doesn't count if they then go backwards though.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
The other downside is side effects.
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
That sounds very optimistic. I think parties tend to need a few losses before the learn to be competent again.
Seems to have taken Labour only one? I never considered Ed M particularly incompetent in comparison to what has come next. Less competent than Cameron though.
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
Ed M was fine. Doesn't count if they then go backwards though.
Fair point.
Labour poll lead by the end of the year and I really should lay a Tory majority
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
The other downside is side effects.
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
That's a BS argument. Not vaccinating and having a 4th wave will do the same. And absolutely no signs of mass vaccine hesitancy in the UK.
People are clued up enough to know this is gen 1 of th3 vaccines, they aren't perfect, but they are having an effect and way way better than nothing.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
The other downside is side effects.
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
That's a BS argument. Not vaccinating and having a 4th wave will do the same. And absolutely no signs of mass vaccine hesitancy in the UK.
People are clued up enough to know this is gen 1 of th3 vaccines, they aren't perfect, but they are having an effect and way way better than nothing.
I am only passing on what the article says!!!
Sounds like written by one of the lot who have already made it clear they are idealogically against boosters for reasons of feed the world, and thus making up reasons to support their position.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So why are ever higher percentages of those in hospital, in ICUs and dying young adults and children? (No need to reply, I know the answer)
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Exactly.
And given the evidence that mixing vaccines boosts immune response, we rapidly come to the conclusion that there is no - or very little - downside.
Especially compared to the current situation, where vaccines sit in fridges, counting down to expiration day.
The left strategy is now just to adopt anyone who isn’t Keir Starmer. They’ll be adopting Blair next!
I am no fan of Blair, indeed left the Labour Party in the early naughties because of him, but on the radio today he was head and shoulders above either front bench in terms of eloquence and competent argument over events in Afghanistan.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
The worst of all worlds is allowing vaccines to expire in fridges and freezers.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
They are certainly connecting pharmacies up to allow them to log vaccinations, which can only be for boosters (possibly to be given at the same time as flu jabs). There doesn't seem to be a big rush though, unlike with the early vax centres.
The NIVS (National Immunisation & Vaccination System - it's what Covid vaccinations are logged on in a hospital setting) is going down for a couple of hours on Monday to be upgraded to allow flu vaccinations to be logged alongside the Covid Boosters. Also they are going to add the functionality to add vaccinations for 12-15 year patients on the system.
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
That sounds very optimistic. I think parties tend to need a few losses before the learn to be competent again.
Seems to have taken Labour only one? I never considered Ed M particularly incompetent in comparison to what has come next. Less competent than Cameron though.
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
Ed M was fine. Doesn't count if they then go backwards though.
Ed M was competent, in much the same way that Hague was competent. They were just woefully underprepared for the job they had to do.
But the next time the Conservatives are choosing a Leader of the Opposition, I can't see them choosing wisely.
The left strategy is now just to adopt anyone who isn’t Keir Starmer. They’ll be adopting Blair next!
I am no fan of Blair, indeed left the Labour Party in the early naughties because of him, but on the radio today he was head and shoulders above either front bench in terms of eloquence and competent argument over events in Afghanistan.
One wonders whether there is a young Blair out there who is attracted to joining today's Labour party?
Or to any party?
Maybe it is an age thing, but today's front benches seem like pygmies compared to the politicians I first grew up watching and listening to.
You really know nothing about Labour Politics do you
Mark Drakeford is an unadulterated Corbynite and a very effective one to boot.
He was the only sitting Cabinet member in any part of the UK to support Jeremy Corbyn in his bid for the national leadership of the Labour Party in 2015, while he was Minister for Health and Social Services.
With regard to the header, is there a link between societies that are more religious and scepticism about COVID, and the policies (ie lockdowns) associated with it?
Certainly in the UK, there was a strong element of COVID compliance as a sort of secular faith: ie the NHS as a religion.
While the first sentence is a reasonable attempt to try to define a pattern, the second is unintelligible gibberish.
People complied with Covid restrictions because they "worship" the religion that is the NHS,
Seriously - can we get away from these incoherent ramblings on here?
There’s something there - the NHS has a powerful symbolism in the UK above that which a health system should a priori have. It meant that “protect the nhs” was a very effective way to generate high levels of compliance
SAS hacker squad's cover is blown... by a job advert: Special Forces pull listing for £33,000-a-year role to work for secretive Computer Network Operations Exploitation Unit
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
That sounds very optimistic. I think parties tend to need a few losses before the learn to be competent again.
Seems to have taken Labour only one? I never considered Ed M particularly incompetent in comparison to what has come next. Less competent than Cameron though.
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
Ed M was fine. Doesn't count if they then go backwards though.
Ed M was competent, in much the same way that Hague was competent. They were just woefully underprepared for the job they had to do.
But the next time the Conservatives are choosing a Leader of the Opposition, I can't see them choosing wisely.
As long as they save electing Patel as leader until they are firmly in Opposition I am reasonably content.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So why are ever higher percentages of those in hospital, in ICUs and dying young adults and children? (No need to reply, I know the answer)
Here is the maths showing that #vaccineswork against severe outcomes for Delta. The hospitalisation and death counts are taken as the difference between those reported to 15 August and those reported to 2 August, the latter from Technical Briefing 20 https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1428755006921003010
Although it will be fun to see Doctor Who turned into a rip off of Lord of the Rings.
If you go to the Z'ha'dum...
MJZ can do broad sweeping ploy struxtire but sone of the dialogue on B5 was absolutely earth shatteringly awful - much of it was savedonly by the straight faced earnest delivery.
Aldo the absolute coup of having Peter Jurasik and Andreas Katsulis just casually filling a couple of key opposed roles with absolute and complete mastery and aplomb.
What Katsulas did with his eyes alone is an acting masterclass in itself.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
They are certainly connecting pharmacies up to allow them to log vaccinations, which can only be for boosters (possibly to be given at the same time as flu jabs). There doesn't seem to be a big rush though, unlike with the early vax centres.
The NIVS (National Immunisation & Vaccination System - it's what Covid vaccinations are logged on in a hospital setting) is going down for a couple of hours on Monday to be upgraded to allow flu vaccinations to be logged alongside the Covid Boosters. Also they are going to add the functionality to add vaccinations for 12-15 year patients on the system.
Ah. Thanks. That makes sense. I only get to see the pipes going in!
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is madness that we have vaccines lying around, unused.
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster. People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
Nasal administration is not trivial in vaccine development. It took ages for MedImmune (AstraZeneca) to make FluMist work
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Most big employers were happy for July to be a soft deadline for back to work and instead have said Sept (or sometimes Oct) is when they expect staff back under whatever new hybrid model is being adopted. That will be people on public transport, mostly wearing shit masks that in the face of delta do little more than give the wearer confidence, and then all day in an office with no mask and windows that quite often don’t open.
I'm not so sure. Many businesses are being extremely cautious. My employer (a large manufacturing concern) is still implementing almost exactly the same protocols for mask wearing, social distancing and officey types working as much as possible from home as it was in January. Shielding employees have been allowed back and that's just about it. They're very reluctant indeed to let the rest of it go.
I reckon that an awful lot of office-based companies, in particular, that are thinking of bringing people back will reverse ferret at the first sign of a major resurgence in cases.
Our New York colleagues have pushed from Labor Day to mid October
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
Its a drop in the ocean. We have bought his extra pfizer for exactly this reason. And there is shed loads of AZN lying around.
More to the point its not supposed to be within the remit of the JCVI
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Most big employers were happy for July to be a soft deadline for back to work and instead have said Sept (or sometimes Oct) is when they expect staff back under whatever new hybrid model is being adopted. That will be people on public transport, mostly wearing shit masks that in the face of delta do little more than give the wearer confidence, and then all day in an office with no mask and windows that quite often don’t open.
The purpose of the mask is to prevent people with Delta (or any other variant) from spreading it to others. Surgeons wear masks to prevent their patients getting sick, not to protect them.
Almost any covering will have an impact on the spread of viral matter. And even if you are still letting 50% of the viral load through (which you probably aren't), that's still cut your infectiousness in half. Plus, of course, viral load matters.
Funnily enough I am aware of that. I just doubt at this point there is as much useful utility from cloth or even blue surgical masks in confined spaces as you think, for a virus that most seem to believe is aerosolised and is certainly many times more infectious than the original strain.
It’s no longer going to move the dial enough I don’t think, if it ever did. Hate to say it but I think we’re not out of this until we get to the point of quick production and delivery of strain specific boosters, which isn’t going to be until 2022 at best.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is madness that we have vaccines lying around, unused.
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster. People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
Nasal administration is not trivial in vaccine development. It took ages for MedImmune (AstraZeneca) to make FluMist work
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
The worst of all worlds is allowing vaccines to expire in fridges and freezers.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
Adam fuckwit Finn is getting likes and cheers from all the 🌸 roasters on twitter. He seems to have vaccination and victimisation as one and the same, the JCVI has a huge problem right now tbh
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
The worst of all worlds is allowing vaccines to expire in fridges and freezers.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
Adam fuckwit Finn is getting likes and cheers from all the 🌸 roasters on twitter. He seems to have vaccination and victimisation as one and the same, the JCVI has a huge problem right now tbh
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
Although it will be fun to see Doctor Who turned into a rip off of Lord of the Rings.
If you go to the Z'ha'dum...
MJZ can do broad sweeping ploy struxtire but sone of the dialogue on B5 was absolutely earth shatteringly awful - much of it was savedonly by the straight faced earnest delivery.
Aldo the absolute coup of having Peter Jurasik and Andreas Katsulis just casually filling a couple of key opposed roles with absolute and complete mastery and aplomb.
What Katsulas did with his eyes alone is an acting masterclass in itself.
Absolutely agree.
I just want Doctor Who to have plot twists to rival 'War Without End' or why the Minbari surrendered at the Battle of the Line.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
The worst of all worlds is allowing vaccines to expire in fridges and freezers.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
Adam fuckwit Finn is getting likes and cheers from all the 🌸 roasters on twitter. He seems to have vaccination and victimisation as one and the same, the JCVI has a huge problem right now tbh
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Although it will be fun to see Doctor Who turned into a rip off of Lord of the Rings.
If you go to the Z'ha'dum...
MJZ can do broad sweeping ploy struxtire but sone of the dialogue on B5 was absolutely earth shatteringly awful - much of it was savedonly by the straight faced earnest delivery.
Aldo the absolute coup of having Peter Jurasik and Andreas Katsulis just casually filling a couple of key opposed roles with absolute and complete mastery and aplomb.
What Katsulas did with his eyes alone is an acting masterclass in itself.
Absolutely agree.
I just want Doctor Who to have plot twists to rival 'War Without End' or why the Minbari surrendered at the Battle of the Line.
I’d settle for it getting back to decent stories tbh.
Driving on a single carriageway A road today, the national speed limit changed to 60 at junctions then back to NSL afterwards. I would have thought they'd want you to slow for junctions but I cant see this could have any legal effect. Could be a psychological ploy but if you're going to the expense of putting extra signs in might as well make it a 50.
You really know nothing about Labour Politics do you
Mark Drakeford is an unadulterated Corbynite and a very effective one to boot.
He was the only sitting Cabinet member in any part of the UK to support Jeremy Corbyn in his bid for the national leadership of the Labour Party in 2015, while he was Minister for Health and Social Services.
Quite right. I am disappointed that he intends standing down before the next Welsh elections before his policies really start to gather 'momentum'. I dont think the public or the London press have quite cottoned on yet.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
What's the downside, other than they don't do much boosting? Where as the potential downside of inaction seems very large.
Waste of vaccine which could be exported to 3rd world.
The worst of all worlds is allowing vaccines to expire in fridges and freezers.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
Adam fuckwit Finn is getting likes and cheers from all the 🌸 roasters on twitter. He seems to have vaccination and victimisation as one and the same, the JCVI has a huge problem right now tbh
What the hell is up with 🌸 and Twitter lately?
I don't use Twitter. I've made about 30 Tweets in about 13 years, mainly escalating complaints to customer service of companies (since that seems to get a prompter than phoning them sometimes). But I have the app installed and in the past I've gotten a few stories pushed as notifications when there's breaking news sometimes - few and far between.
But the last few weeks I've been getting almost daily push notifications of Tweets from someone with a 🌸 in their name. All ludicrous antivax conspiracies or complaints or rabbit hole garbage. None from anyone I follow.
I have no idea why on Earth Twitter has suddenly decided to send push notifications of these things, but its not healthy or impressive. Its all gibberish.
It is hard to tell wit Florida's sporadic releasing of data but I think they have at least 10 days of death growth baked into their figures going forward.
They could well hit the UK equivalent of 1000 a day.
Drakeford is closer to Corbyn than SKS (with the possible exception of Europe).
Given Wales is the only part of the UK that voted for Corbyn in either 2017 or 2019 hardly a surprise, Labour did not need to change from Corbynism to win Wales, it does need to change from Corbynism to win England and Scotland however
My firm is looking at 2 days a week in the office. I’d be happy with that.
I think I might be going against the herd....after being a long time WFHer, just as everybody else is embracing it, I am current considering a new opportunity that will see me give up WFH....am I crazy?
I'd probably prefer to be in the office 3/4 days per week but I couldn't cope with the increased costs of petrol/parking/lunch/coffee, etc.
"Landmark research [on honesty] adopted by governments and insurance companies is found to be based on falsified data; Israeli-American researcher denies knowing the information was faked."
It is hard to tell wit Florida's sporadic releasing of data but I think they have at least 10 days of death growth baked into their figures going forward.
They could well hit the UK equivalent of 1000 a day.
More 9 months after the authorisation of vaccines, that is a truly depressing concept.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
The left strategy is now just to adopt anyone who isn’t Keir Starmer. They’ll be adopting Blair next!
I am no fan of Blair, indeed left the Labour Party in the early naughties because of him, but on the radio today he was head and shoulders above either front bench in terms of eloquence and competent argument over events in Afghanistan.
Yes, I listened to the same Blair interview. I didn't agree with his argument. But he speaks so well, and argues so compellingly, that he really gave me pause for thought. I'm no fan either, but he is head and shoulders above anybody else around at the moment in making a cogent, intelligent argument. He makes Starmer look very ordinary and Johnson look very poor. Incidentally, despite the Mail headlines, he made it very clear that he's got a lot of time for Biden - he just thinks the Afghanistan decision, not Biden himself, is imbecilic.
The left strategy is now just to adopt anyone who isn’t Keir Starmer. They’ll be adopting Blair next!
I am no fan of Blair, indeed left the Labour Party in the early naughties because of him, but on the radio today he was head and shoulders above either front bench in terms of eloquence and competent argument over events in Afghanistan.
It night that when I heard him on the radio earlier. He knows his argument, explains it clearly, and sounds convincing. As long as it’s not complete madness you don’t need much more than that
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him or went third party in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Do not try this at home… Henri has destroyed our nation's largest Ivermectin Factory. The supply should run out in 3 days The good news: you can find decent amounts of Ivermectin in the stool of livestock. Four cups of livestock stool = 200mg of Ivermectin. Grab your gun & head to a farm RIGHT NOW https://twitter.com/HotWeatherTake/status/1429500686019006474
A US charter airline startup, Global X, has 2 Airbus planes according to their website. The site says its partners are casinos, cruise lines, resorts and cargo companies. Both planes just flew into kabul from Dushanbe. Who's likely chartering these?
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
A US charter airline startup, Global X, has 2 Airbus planes according to their website. The site says its partners are casinos, cruise lines, resorts and cargo companies. Both planes just flew into kabul from Dushanbe. Who's likely chartering these?
US govt. I have just read they are chartering civvy planes. Will look for source.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Sweden’s prime minister Stefan Löfven is standing down in the autumn.
I think he has done really well in the circumstances. I might even miss him. I did not vote for either of the minority coalition parties, nor the two centrist parties which gave him confidence and supply. But fair’s fair, he’s done a good job.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is madness that we have vaccines lying around, unused.
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster. People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
Nasal administration is not trivial in vaccine development. It took ages for MedImmune (AstraZeneca) to make FluMist work
The left strategy is now just to adopt anyone who isn’t Keir Starmer. They’ll be adopting Blair next!
I am no fan of Blair, indeed left the Labour Party in the early naughties because of him, but on the radio today he was head and shoulders above either front bench in terms of eloquence and competent argument over events in Afghanistan.
Yes, I listened to the same Blair interview. I didn't agree with his argument. But he speaks so well, and argues so compellingly, that he really gave me pause for thought. I'm no fan either, but he is head and shoulders above anybody else around at the moment in making a cogent, intelligent argument. He makes Starmer look very ordinary and Johnson look very poor. Incidentally, despite the Mail headlines, he made it very clear that he's got a lot of time for Biden - he just thinks the Afghanistan decision, not Biden himself, is imbecilic.
Blair has magical powers of persuasion.
That is unfortunately how he entranced & bedazzled the Labour Party into supporting disastrous Middle East interventions in the first place.
This is not new news. It’s been known for months. The grapevine is they want a woman replacement and have someone in mind,
Chib wrecked it by making the lady Doctor useless, surrounding her with a cast that can't act, and glacial stories. At least, that's how it was when I stopped watching some time ago.
ETA I see you can bet on who will play the next Doctor.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Busted flush is just swapping metaphors. Very rich 70 something teetotallers are virtually guaranteed to survive into their 90s. People still seem to be turning up to his rallies.
A US charter airline startup, Global X, has 2 Airbus planes according to their website. The site says its partners are casinos, cruise lines, resorts and cargo companies. Both planes just flew into kabul from Dushanbe. Who's likely chartering these?
It could be US govt but possibly private. A number of private initiatives in US trying to get Afghans out has chartered aircraft but has had trouble getting slots at KBL faciliated by the US operation.
A US charter airline startup, Global X, has 2 Airbus planes according to their website. The site says its partners are casinos, cruise lines, resorts and cargo companies. Both planes just flew into kabul from Dushanbe. Who's likely chartering these?
US govt. I have just read they are chartering civvy planes. Will look for source.
Though interestingly the US defence department had said this afternoon that they would not be using their chartered planes to actually fly into Kabul, only to fly the refugees on from safe airports outside of Afghanistan so freeing up US military capacity for the Kabul runs.
Given that every plane I have seen fly out of Kabul on the news the last few days has been using anti-missile systems I am surprised if the US military is using aircraft that are not equipped in this manner.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Busted flush is just swapping metaphors. Very rich 70 something teetotallers are virtually guaranteed to survive into their 90s. People still seem to be turning up to his rallies.
Well that may be your view, but my view is that he won't even run and risk losing the primaries, never mind the election.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Busted flush is just swapping metaphors. Very rich 70 something teetotallers are virtually guaranteed to survive into their 90s. People still seem to be turning up to his rallies.
Well that may be your view, but my view is that he won't even run and risk losing the primaries, never mind the election.
It could be US govt but possibly private. A number of private initiatives in US trying to get Afghans out has chartered aircraft but has had trouble getting slots at KBL faciliated by the US operation.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Busted flush is just swapping metaphors. Very rich 70 something teetotallers are virtually guaranteed to survive into their 90s. People still seem to be turning up to his rallies.
Well that may be your view, but my view is that he won't even run and risk losing the primaries, never mind the election.
Trump is the past, even to the GOP.
We are a mere 18 months before traditional campaigning would commence for the New Hampshire primary. I have no idea why anyone would be confident Trump won’t be running or why they expect him to be in the ground by then. Denial I suppose.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Except Biden is giving Trump the oxygen to keep popping up for the next three years saying "They rigged the election - for THIS guy? Jeez...."
He doesn't need to win the argument with Democrats. Just independents.....
Drakeford is closer to Corbyn than SKS (with the possible exception of Europe).
Given Wales is the only part of the UK that voted for Corbyn in either 2017 or 2019 hardly a surprise, Labour did not need to change from Corbynism to win Wales, it does need to change from Corbynism to win England and Scotland however
It’s not Corbynism, Brownism or Blairism that is suppressing the Labour vote in Scotland. It is British nationalism.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
As in, how he lost WH 2016? Putting it another way, what if the end of the relevant day is post 2024? Extraordinary claim.
1) He is a busted flush. 2) The guy might even be dead in 2024. He is ancient and unhealthy after all.
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
Busted flush is just swapping metaphors. Very rich 70 something teetotallers are virtually guaranteed to survive into their 90s. People still seem to be turning up to his rallies.
Well that may be your view, but my view is that he won't even run and risk losing the primaries, never mind the election.
Trump is the past, even to the GOP.
We are a mere 18 months before traditional campaigning would commence for the New Hampshire primary. I have no idea why anyone would be confident Trump won’t be running or why they expect him to be in the ground by then. Denial I suppose.
Trump lost to an old man with borderline capacity issues who half the Democrats don't even like and who very well could have been beaten by Pete Buttigieg if Iowa could count.
Trump himself is going to be even older with even less energy in 18 months time. Realistically a younger GOPer will catch the zeitgeist, maybe even someone we haven't heard of yet.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
It could be US govt but possibly private. A number of private initiatives in US trying to get Afghans out has chartered aircraft but has had trouble getting slots at KBL faciliated by the US operation.
Any chance of opening Bagram?
It was on the mission options the US DoD had, reportedly by initial airdrop to secure it but they decided on a 100% KBL approach. Whether it has any real advantage trying to open it now, I dont know. If for example it was out of sight, allowed KBL to be shut for the evacuation and enabled things to carry on whilst the Taliban got on with pacifying Kabul city then it might still be a consideration.
One of the more curious operations at the moment is the use of the Pakistan embassy as a gathering point for foreign nationals to be transported on to the airport.
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Except Biden is giving Trump the oxygen to keep popping up for the next three years saying "They rigged the election - for THIS guy? Jeez...."
He doesn't need to win the argument with Democrats. Just independents.....
A US charter airline startup, Global X, has 2 Airbus planes according to their website. The site says its partners are casinos, cruise lines, resorts and cargo companies. Both planes just flew into kabul from Dushanbe. Who's likely chartering these?
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
I am now really worried that he'll be back. This is an absolute gift to him.
Trump's pushing the vaccine is a notable shift to the centre (his base will vote for him anyway given the alternative of Biden-Harris).
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Since he got booed for it, it’s probably even money he doesn’t mention it ever again.
It was a nod aimed at centrist swing voters not his base, particularly those who voted for him in 2016 but for Biden in 2020 as they thought he would better handle Covid.
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Trump wont be the GOP nominee. He is a loser at the end of the day.
Except Biden is giving Trump the oxygen to keep popping up for the next three years saying "They rigged the election - for THIS guy? Jeez...."
He doesn't need to win the argument with Democrats. Just independents.....
Trump 9/4 fav with bf for the nomination.
Who is favourite on BF is meaningless, as we all know very well.
Comments
This government is set to fail. Then they can be voted out and go back to being competent again
I am feeling confident about my Labour poll lead bet
Also, per the STimes piece, there is a worry amongst policy makers that if we do a mass 3rd jab boost and there is still a fourth wave this winter then it will put people off other vaccines in general as they clearly don't work.
People are clued up enough to know this is gen 1 of thess vaccines, they aren't perfect, but they are having an effect and way way better than nothing.
I think its far more dangerous not to and we then see masses of grannies filling up ICUs and people are incredibly angry at the government for not doing something and people lose trust.
Labour poll lead by the end of the year and I really should lay a Tory majority
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012644/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf
And that is for the Delta variant.
And given the evidence that mixing vaccines boosts immune response, we rapidly come to the conclusion that there is no - or very little - downside.
Especially compared to the current situation, where vaccines sit in fridges, counting down to expiration day.
We can have a debate about whether we’re best off exporting them to the third world (which may well struggle with distribution of the mRNA vaccines). What we cannot do is simply allow vaccines to expire, unused.
But the next time the Conservatives are choosing a Leader of the Opposition, I can't see them choosing wisely.
Or to any party?
Maybe it is an age thing, but today's front benches seem like pygmies compared to the politicians I first grew up watching and listening to.
Mark Drakeford is an unadulterated Corbynite and a very effective one to boot.
He was the only sitting Cabinet member in any part of the UK to support Jeremy Corbyn in his bid for the national leadership of the Labour Party in 2015, while he was Minister for Health and Social Services.
https://twitter.com/novicus/status/1429087620336787460?s=20
Quite how they deal with the Sunni and Shia divide though is another matter
The hospitalisation and death counts are taken as the difference between those reported to 15 August and those reported to 2 August, the latter from Technical Briefing 20
https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1428755006921003010
Aldo the absolute coup of having Peter Jurasik and Andreas Katsulis just casually filling a couple of key opposed roles with absolute and complete mastery and aplomb.
What Katsulas did with his eyes alone is an acting masterclass in itself.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9916221/Blair-brands-Biden-imbecile-unnecessary-decision-quit-Afghanistan.html
Meanwhile Trump said of the withdrawal ''This will go down as one of the greatest military defeats of all time,'' at an Alabama rally as he begins the first steps for his third presidential run in 2024. Though there were some boos when he suggested getting the vaccine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9916429/Moment-Donald-Trump-BOOED-Alabama-rally-encouraging-supporters-vaccine.html
It’s no longer going to move the dial enough I don’t think, if it ever did. Hate to say it but I think we’re not out of this until we get to the point of quick production and delivery of strain specific boosters, which isn’t going to be until 2022 at best.
He seems to have vaccination and victimisation as one and the same, the JCVI has a huge problem right now tbh
I just want Doctor Who to have plot twists to rival 'War Without End' or why the Minbari surrendered at the Battle of the Line.
Genuinely mystified by his positions....
https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1429489529275158531
EICIPM is making a comeback??
He is clearly going to try and present himself as Reagan to Biden's Carter after the equally disastrous Iran hostages affair, whether it comes off or not we will have to see
Drakeford is closer to Corbyn than SKS (with the possible exception of Europe).
I don't use Twitter. I've made about 30 Tweets in about 13 years, mainly escalating complaints to customer service of companies (since that seems to get a prompter than phoning them sometimes). But I have the app installed and in the past I've gotten a few stories pushed as notifications when there's breaking news sometimes - few and far between.
But the last few weeks I've been getting almost daily push notifications of Tweets from someone with a 🌸 in their name. All ludicrous antivax conspiracies or complaints or rabbit hole garbage. None from anyone I follow.
I have no idea why on Earth Twitter has suddenly decided to send push notifications of these things, but its not healthy or impressive. Its all gibberish.
They could well hit the UK equivalent of 1000 a day.
What has @contrarian got to say about De Santis lately?
"Landmark research [on honesty] adopted by governments and insurance companies is found to be based on falsified data; Israeli-American researcher denies knowing the information was faked."
https://www.timesofisrael.com/claims-swirl-around-academic-ariely-after-honesty-study-found-to-be-dishonest/
He got the newsclip he wanted therefore, as I said his base will vote for him regardless anyway, as he said 'they got their freedoms' under him too
Henri has destroyed our nation's largest Ivermectin Factory. The supply should run out in 3 days
The good news: you can find decent amounts of Ivermectin in the stool of livestock. Four cups of livestock stool = 200mg of Ivermectin. Grab your gun & head to a farm RIGHT NOW
https://twitter.com/HotWeatherTake/status/1429500686019006474
edit
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/22/afghanistan-evacuations-commercial-airlines-pentagon
It'll be someone from the GOP's next gen and they might very well win it.
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/National-Monthly-Omnibus-8-2021-Release-.pdf
Remember most of the MAGA crowd don't think he lost in 2020 anyway but the election was stolen from him
I think he has done really well in the circumstances. I might even miss him. I did not vote for either of the minority coalition parties, nor the two centrist parties which gave him confidence and supply. But fair’s fair, he’s done a good job.
https://www.dn.se/sverige/lofven-jag-vet-att-det-ar-ratt-beslut/
Trump 46.9%
That is unfortunately how he entranced & bedazzled the Labour Party into supporting disastrous Middle East interventions in the first place.
ETA I see you can bet on who will play the next Doctor.
Given that every plane I have seen fly out of Kabul on the news the last few days has been using anti-missile systems I am surprised if the US military is using aircraft that are not equipped in this manner.
Trump is the past, even to the GOP.
Bookmark this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/20/trump-peace-deal-taliban/
By the way, is Leon SeanT ?
He doesn't need to win the argument with Democrats. Just independents.....
Trump himself is going to be even older with even less energy in 18 months time. Realistically a younger GOPer will catch the zeitgeist, maybe even someone we haven't heard of yet.
So if he runs in 2024 Trump would only need a 1.15% swing from Biden-Harris relative to 2020 to likely win the EC and the Presidency again.
Indeed Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin by less than 1%, if Trump won those back he would win the Presidency
One of the more curious operations at the moment is the use of the Pakistan embassy as a gathering point for foreign nationals to be transported on to the airport.