Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So vaccination does nothing to reduce the risk of hospitilisation.
What are you smoking, and can I have some of it?
No I am not saying that. For the vulnerable and older people the vaccines are very useful.
Your earlier post said exactly that. In reply to a comment saying being vaccinated "overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it", you replied saying that it doesn't.
Its probably 'overwhelming' if you are an old or vulnerable person, sure, but if you are a young person having a vaccine is of no consequence whatever. You would not be in hospital or die whether you had a vaccine or not. Why? because you are young and healthy.
That is totally wrong, complete bollocks. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation in *all* age groups.
I do not see how you could possibly claim that, given that healthy people under 16 have not even been vaccinated. and medical professionals are not even sure if they should be. They only u-turned on 16 and 17-year olds recently. Healthy young people simply do not suffer much from covid.
Hence the claim that the young are being used as a human shield for the old.
Because I'm looking at actual statistics? And seriously, are you really saying the claim is invalid because it hasn't been tested on under 16 year olds. What about the vast majority of the population older than that?
Here's a graphic showing the effect of vaccination, even as young as 25-34 the effect is profound.
Those are not statistics those are projections. But it is interesting, isn't it, that hospitalisations are much higher post vaccination than they were pre-vaccination on the same day last year, as the maths guy pointed out?
Yes we have delta now, and yes, the numbers would be much higher without vaccination. But you cannot prove the extent of the impact because we have no test experiment in the UK with lower vaxx rates.
What we do have is a test experiment in the US with delta versus lower vaxx rates. I am have not had a look at those in a while, but I did read that whilst some lo vaxx states were undoubtedly struggling, so were some high vaxx states (eg Hawaii). I also read that Israel is struggling, even though they are quite high vaxx.
Hawaii is to do with tourism - the locals are getting really hacked off at the moment
The data on which we are basing your covid assumptions is completely flawed, say some named health professionals.
Now I stress these are not TSE approved health professionals, nor have they been vetted by experts such as Alistair 100,00 cases. So caveat emptor, naturally.
These are health professionals we can disregard, because, well, they are nutters obviously. Whereas the doctors we listen to, like Susan Michie and that Pagel woman, are completely above reproach.
Andy Cook has done all the research for us anyway, and there's no point in arguing.
Having read the letter there is a mix of good points and bad ones. Our old friend ivermectin rears its head, but points about impact of lockdowns being assessed are fair. I’m not sure I agree with most of it though.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
. Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
The vaccine effect is HUGE. Why try to deny the evidence? See @Foxy’s posts about who is in icu
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund who owns multiple teams) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball. If you think they do analytics now, just wait, managers ain't going to be picking no starting line-ups based on who trained well etc.
On topic. The stat in the header that interests me the most is not that related to the UK but that related to Sweden.
The country that spent most of the first year of the pandemic claiming that lockdowns were not the way to proceed and then suffered as a consequence is now almost the least lockdown sceptic of the whole of Europe.
Bit cheeky to ignore half the survey - in terms of people who think lockdowns work they're very much in the bottom half of the western european countries there.
Erm no.
One graph is of those who think lockdowns don't work (do more harm than good) - in Sweden that number is 15%, 3rd from bottom . The other graph is those who think the Covid risks are overstated - in Sweden that number is 14% - the lowest out of those polled.
Neither shows them in the bottom half of those thinking lockdowns don't work. Exactly the reverse in fact.
Err no, I'm not referring to the 2nd table at all. The first table includes the number who think Lockdowns work as well as the number who think they don't work (and those who think they make no difference).
Sweden is pretty near table topping in thinking lockdowns are net neutral, and the number of positives is lower than most of Western Europe - you're basing a conclusion on 1/3rd of the data presented when the rest does not agree.
That is cherry picking of the very worst kind.
First you take a subset of the group and look only at Western European Countries. Then you try and limit the 'think they work' to those who only think they do more good than harm when the two points are not comparable. There may be many amongst the 'Do both equally' who think they work but are not sure the social consequences are worth it.
You have basically drawn an unsustainable conclusion from a partial reading of the data and used that to justify an unsupportable statement.
You're literally accusing me of doing what you've done. I'm not trying to draw any conclusions - I merely point of that if you rank by 'think lockdowns make no net utility difference, Sweden comes 3rd out of 20, whereas if you rank by think they have negative ultility they come 18th of 20, and if you ask if they have positive utility they are middle of the pack.
You're the only one trying to only look at 1 of the 3 data points and ignore that the others do not paint the same picture.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball.
I think the big one (and something our owners want) is the TV income to be geared more towards the big clubs.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So vaccination does nothing to reduce the risk of hospitilisation.
What are you smoking, and can I have some of it?
No I am not saying that. For the vulnerable and older people the vaccines are very useful.
Your earlier post said exactly that. In reply to a comment saying being vaccinated "overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it", you replied saying that it doesn't.
Its probably 'overwhelming' if you are an old or vulnerable person, sure, but if you are a young person having a vaccine is of no consequence whatever. You would not be in hospital or die whether you had a vaccine or not. Why? because you are young and healthy.
That is totally wrong, complete bollocks. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation in *all* age groups.
I do not see how you could possibly claim that, given that healthy people under 16 have not even been vaccinated. and medical professionals are not even sure if they should be. They only u-turned on 16 and 17-year olds recently. Healthy young people simply do not suffer much from covid.
Hence the claim that the young are being used as a human shield for the old.
Because I'm looking at actual statistics? And seriously, are you really saying the claim is invalid because it hasn't been tested on under 16 year olds. What about the vast majority of the population older than that?
Here's a graphic showing the effect of vaccination, even as young as 25-34 the effect is profound.
Those are not statistics those are projections. But it is interesting, isn't it, that hospitalisations are much higher post vaccination than they were pre-vaccination on the same day last year, as the maths guy pointed out?
Yes we have delta now, and yes, the numbers would be much higher without vaccination. But you cannot prove the extent of the impact because we have no test experiment in the UK with lower vaxx rates.
What we do have is a test experiment in the US with delta versus lower vaxx rates. I am have not had a look at those in a while, but I did read that whilst some lo vaxx states were undoubtedly struggling, so were some high vaxx states (eg Hawaii). I also read that Israel is struggling, even though they are quite high vaxx.
Let's have a big old graphic.
A bit confusing, but in black we have cases in England (scale on the left). In red, we have hospital admissions in England (scale on the right)
It is interesting that hospital admissions are - oh, far lower against cases than this time last year.
In blue in the background, we have cumulative vaccinations - proportion of over-16s (against the blue percentages going upwards).
Of course, we have to take into account such things as the variants (Alpha taking off as a proportion of cases in green dashed lines last winter; Delta taking off in Blue dashed lines this summer).
And certainly the level of restrictions. The graphic was already getting way too busy, so I had that along the bottom. The darkness is how severe they are. The mix of colours and darknesses in September to October last year prior to Tiers shows how confusing it was then.
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball.
I think the big one (and something our owners want) is the TV income to be geared more towards the big clubs.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
There is that, also the America's believe a proper salary cap is coming (or they want to push for one) under the guise of increasing competition / fairness....also having the knock on effect that as owners, you know you exactly what the outgoings will be.
What was also interesting was the guest basically said football clubs are often massively undervalued (or rather they get themselves in such a mess, they become cheap to buy at the right time), piss poorly run from a business perspective and the transfer market is totally inefficient. He equated it to many clubs basically buying very expensive lottery tickets, rather than running a sound business.
I think what we are going to see a lot more of is multi-clubs as well. There is so many advantages of scale to own 4-5 clubs across different leagues.
Then again, while we're looking at the devastation in Florida and Texas, we do have one in our midst who predicted all that back in late June.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida. Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball.
I think the big one (and something our owners want) is the TV income to be geared more towards the big clubs.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
There is that, also the America's believe a proper salary cap is coming (or they want to push for one) under the guise of increasing competition / fairness....also having the knock on effect that as owners, you know you exactly what the outgoings will be.
What was also interesting was the guest basically said football clubs are often massively undervalued (or rather they get themselves in such a mess, they become cheap to buy), piss poorly run from a business perspective and the transfer market is totally inefficient. He equated it to many clubs basically buying very expensive lottery tickets, rather than running a sound business.
It is the agents they really want to cull.
As one American owner put it a few years ago.
'We want to sign a player from Southampton, we agree a fee with Southampton, we agree terms with the player then it turns out we have to pay £5 million to an agent for a deal that the clubs and the player are happy with.'
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball.
I think the big one (and something our owners want) is the TV income to be geared more towards the big clubs.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
There is that, also the America's believe a proper salary cap is coming (or they want to push for one) under the guise of increasing competition / fairness....also having the knock on effect that as owners, you know you exactly what the outgoings will be.
What was also interesting was the guest basically said football clubs are often massively undervalued (or rather they get themselves in such a mess, they become cheap to buy), piss poorly run from a business perspective and the transfer market is totally inefficient. He equated it to many clubs basically buying very expensive lottery tickets, rather than running a sound business.
It is the agents they really want to cull.
As one American owner put it a few years ago.
'We want to sign a player from Southampton, we agree a fee with Southampton, we agree terms with the player then it turns out we have to pay £5 million to an agent for a deal that the clubs and the player are happy with.'
Its also the way the agent often demands money from every side of the deal, rather than just taking money from the player for the services of representation. Its worse than estate agents.
There is a really interesting bit in the Sunderland Amazon documentary, when the star player demands crazy money for a new deal and the owner (who has no experience owning a football club) calls a meeting with the managerial team and says what the hell, this is nuts, he is good, but that much....and one of the coaches says, it doesn't matter, he won't sign even if you pay him that....and the owner says why not, thats crazy money....his agent....surely his agent will be happy as well....no his agent specialises in moving his players to certain clubs...nudge nudge wink wink....
And sure enough the owner eventually offers the player the crazy money, and the agent says no sorry, he is going to France. He won't play for you again unless you sell him to this club.
The owner who made all his money in insurance business is just left there going I don't get, what is going on, this is just insanity.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So vaccination does nothing to reduce the risk of hospitilisation.
What are you smoking, and can I have some of it?
No I am not saying that. For the vulnerable and older people the vaccines are very useful.
Your earlier post said exactly that. In reply to a comment saying being vaccinated "overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it", you replied saying that it doesn't.
Its probably 'overwhelming' if you are an old or vulnerable person, sure, but if you are a young person having a vaccine is of no consequence whatever. You would not be in hospital or die whether you had a vaccine or not. Why? because you are young and healthy.
That is totally wrong, complete bollocks. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation in *all* age groups.
I do not see how you could possibly claim that, given that healthy people under 16 have not even been vaccinated. and medical professionals are not even sure if they should be. They only u-turned on 16 and 17-year olds recently. Healthy young people simply do not suffer much from covid.
Hence the claim that the young are being used as a human shield for the old.
Because I'm looking at actual statistics? And seriously, are you really saying the claim is invalid because it hasn't been tested on under 16 year olds. What about the vast majority of the population older than that?
Here's a graphic showing the effect of vaccination, even as young as 25-34 the effect is profound.
Those are not statistics those are projections. But it is interesting, isn't it, that hospitalisations are much higher post vaccination than they were pre-vaccination on the same day last year, as the maths guy pointed out?
Yes we have delta now, and yes, the numbers would be much higher without vaccination. But you cannot prove the extent of the impact because we have no test experiment in the UK with lower vaxx rates.
What we do have is a test experiment in the US with delta versus lower vaxx rates. I am have not had a look at those in a while, but I did read that whilst some lo vaxx states were undoubtedly struggling, so were some high vaxx states (eg Hawaii). I also read that Israel is struggling, even though they are quite high vaxx.
Let's have a big old graphic.
A bit confusing, but in black we have cases in England (scale on the left). In red, we have hospital admissions in England (scale on the right)
It is interesting that hospital admissions are - oh, far lower against cases than this time last year.
In blue in the background, we have cumulative vaccinations - proportion of over-16s (against the blue percentages going upwards).
Of course, we have to take into account such things as the variants (Alpha taking off as a proportion of cases in green dashed lines last winter; Delta taking off in Blue dashed lines this summer).
And certainly the level of restrictions. The graphic was already getting way too busy, so I had that along the bottom. The darkness is how severe they are. The mix of colours and darknesses in September to October last year prior to Tiers shows how confusing it was then.
Superb graph. Edward Tufte might approve. Though it is a bit busy - are the bars adding anything?. It certainly shows how the epidemic here has changed its character.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Pedantic point: the act requiring people to carry ID cards in the Uk was only repeated in 1952.
National Service still going until the end of the 50s as well I think.
Then again, while we're looking at the devastation in Florida and Texas, we do have one in our midst who predicted all that back in late June.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida. Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
Who can forget @contrarian rubbing his hands together and opining "well... if it isn't armageddon in the South, then the peddlers of vaccines will have a lot to answer for"*
* Yeah, I slightly paraphrased him. But only slightly.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So vaccination does nothing to reduce the risk of hospitilisation.
What are you smoking, and can I have some of it?
No I am not saying that. For the vulnerable and older people the vaccines are very useful.
Your earlier post said exactly that. In reply to a comment saying being vaccinated "overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it", you replied saying that it doesn't.
Its probably 'overwhelming' if you are an old or vulnerable person, sure, but if you are a young person having a vaccine is of no consequence whatever. You would not be in hospital or die whether you had a vaccine or not. Why? because you are young and healthy.
That is totally wrong, complete bollocks. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation in *all* age groups.
I do not see how you could possibly claim that, given that healthy people under 16 have not even been vaccinated. and medical professionals are not even sure if they should be. They only u-turned on 16 and 17-year olds recently. Healthy young people simply do not suffer much from covid.
Hence the claim that the young are being used as a human shield for the old.
Because I'm looking at actual statistics? And seriously, are you really saying the claim is invalid because it hasn't been tested on under 16 year olds. What about the vast majority of the population older than that?
Here's a graphic showing the effect of vaccination, even as young as 25-34 the effect is profound.
Those are not statistics those are projections. But it is interesting, isn't it, that hospitalisations are much higher post vaccination than they were pre-vaccination on the same day last year, as the maths guy pointed out?
Yes we have delta now, and yes, the numbers would be much higher without vaccination. But you cannot prove the extent of the impact because we have no test experiment in the UK with lower vaxx rates.
What we do have is a test experiment in the US with delta versus lower vaxx rates. I am have not had a look at those in a while, but I did read that whilst some lo vaxx states were undoubtedly struggling, so were some high vaxx states (eg Hawaii). I also read that Israel is struggling, even though they are quite high vaxx.
Let's have a big old graphic.
A bit confusing, but in black we have cases in England (scale on the left). In red, we have hospital admissions in England (scale on the right)
It is interesting that hospital admissions are - oh, far lower against cases than this time last year.
In blue in the background, we have cumulative vaccinations - proportion of over-16s (against the blue percentages going upwards).
Of course, we have to take into account such things as the variants (Alpha taking off as a proportion of cases in green dashed lines last winter; Delta taking off in Blue dashed lines this summer).
And certainly the level of restrictions. The graphic was already getting way too busy, so I had that along the bottom. The darkness is how severe they are. The mix of colours and darknesses in September to October last year prior to Tiers shows how confusing it was then.
Superb graph. Edward Tufte might approve. Though it is a bit busy - are the bars adding anything?. It certainly shows how the epidemic here has changed its character.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Pedantic point: the act requiring people to carry ID cards in the Uk was only repeated in 1952.
National Service still going until the end of the 50s as well I think.
Which also involved a great deal of compulsory inoculation, of course. On basic training, and also when departing for foreign service.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
Yes by vaccinating them. Unless of course you are proposing permanent lockdowns.
No I am proposing permanent liberty and freedom, you know, that situation that last from 1945 to March 2020....?
Quarantine and vaccinate the sick and vulnerable. Let healthy people live their lives.
Pedantic point: the act requiring people to carry ID cards in the Uk was only repeated in 1952.
National Service still going until the end of the 50s as well I think.
Then again, while we're looking at the devastation in Florida and Texas, we do have one in our midst who predicted all that back in late June.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida. Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
Who can forget @contrarian rubbing his hands together and opining "well... if it isn't armageddon in the South, then the peddlers of vaccines will have a lot to answer for"*
* Yeah, I slightly paraphrased him. But only slightly.
From Tampa,FL:
I haven’t said anything about what’s going on with #COVID here in FL bc I haven’t had the words to describe it. The truth is we’re caring for 3x the number of patients we had last summer. 12 of our floors have been converted to covid units. We are stretched to the breaking point. https://t.co/MyZVmIuaUE
2/ We’re putting multiple patients on ventilators every day. We’re doing CPR on patients younger than me in a desperate attempt to save their life. We’re calling dozens of families every day and telling them we don’t think their loved one is going to survive this.
3/Almost all our patients are unvaccinated. We didn’t have to get here. Please #GetVaccinated if you haven’t already. #WearAMask And tell the people you love how much you love them while you can.
Doctors and their staff working in GP surgeries across England are reporting a torrent of abuse from patients, with some receiving hate mail while others have been left shaking and in tears by physical and verbal attacks.
Some family doctors have told The Independent they fear coming to work, and have seen staff quit over the threats they are receiving almost daily.
Some surgeries have been subjected to bomb threats, while others have been daubed with graffiti. Staff at one practice in London have received hate mail threatening workers over their role in the Covid vaccination rollout. Other were sent abusive text messages describing staff as “Nazi b*****ds”.
GPs say the majority of problems are being caused by the system being overwhelmed with demand, and a false perception among some patients that GPs are closed and seeing fewer patients in the wake of the Covid crisis.
Every passing season shows how much of a genius Arsene Wenger was.
Absolute shithouse is Stan Kroenke.
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
There was a really interesting podcast on the Athletic this week about American ownership of European football teams. I didn't realise quite how many English clubs they own now and according to the guest (who is part of a big fund) how they intend to revolutionize the game ala baseball.
I think the big one (and something our owners want) is the TV income to be geared more towards the big clubs.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
There is that, also the America's believe a proper salary cap is coming (or they want to push for one) under the guise of increasing competition / fairness....also having the knock on effect that as owners, you know you exactly what the outgoings will be.
What was also interesting was the guest basically said football clubs are often massively undervalued (or rather they get themselves in such a mess, they become cheap to buy at the right time), piss poorly run from a business perspective and the transfer market is totally inefficient. He equated it to many clubs basically buying very expensive lottery tickets, rather than running a sound business.
I think what we are going to see a lot more of is multi-clubs as well. There is so many advantages of scale to own 4-5 clubs across different leagues.
Then again, while we're looking at the devastation in Florida and Texas, we do have one in our midst who predicted all that back in late June.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida. Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
Who can forget @contrarian rubbing his hands together and opining "well... if it isn't armageddon in the South, then the peddlers of vaccines will have a lot to answer for"*
* Yeah, I slightly paraphrased him. But only slightly.
Perhaps contrarian should move to Hungary? Lots of vax-sceptics, a far-right government, what's not to like?
"End of Angela Merkel's SPD? Latest Germany election polls as party support fails ANGELA MERKEL'S Social Democratic Party (SDP) is in peril with support flocking to other candidates in the election race amid the German Chancellor's decision to step back from politics."
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
August, with English schools off should ceteris paribus be one of the lowest transmission times of the year. Schools, then universities, then christmas/new year to come. 100k may happen yet
Doctors and their staff working in GP surgeries across England are reporting a torrent of abuse from patients, with some receiving hate mail while others have been left shaking and in tears by physical and verbal attacks.
Some family doctors have told The Independent they fear coming to work, and have seen staff quit over the threats they are receiving almost daily.
Some surgeries have been subjected to bomb threats, while others have been daubed with graffiti. Staff at one practice in London have received hate mail threatening workers over their role in the Covid vaccination rollout. Other were sent abusive text messages describing staff as “Nazi b*****ds”.
GPs say the majority of problems are being caused by the system being overwhelmed with demand, and a false perception among some patients that GPs are closed and seeing fewer patients in the wake of the Covid crisis.
I think General Practice is in a very dangerous place in terms of face-to-face consultations, or more accurately their absence. The switch to phone and video consultations is not one with a decent evidence base. It is part of the reason that hospital emergency services are so overloaded at the moment.
On topic, I think one reason that the public are so lockdown tolerant is that they understand how fragile our hospital system is when under high demand. Systems with more capacity cope better.
I am endlessly struck, and rather impressed, by XR's ability to organise decently large groups of people for quite committed actions. If only we could work out how they do it, without an expensive HR or other infrastructure, and apply it to other areas of life.
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Thread: A year ago today we saw the lowest ever recorded number of COVID hospital admissions in England. The 22nd August 2020 figure was 25. I expect 22nd August 2021 will be around 800: that's five doublings higher, and I don't think that's good news, to say the least.
Its why I don't understand the pissing about with booster jabs. Get em done.
800 admissions is jut over 1 per parliamentary constituency - hardly overwhelming hospitals is it?
800 people in hospital who don't need to be. I would suggest that is something worth trying to avoid if all it takes is a jab.
Being double jabbed does not stop you getting covid, getting covid seriously, or passing on covid.
It overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it.
No what stops you ending up in hospital is your age, overall fitness, and whether you have co-morbidities or not. Why do you think we protect the vulnerable?
So vaccination does nothing to reduce the risk of hospitilisation.
What are you smoking, and can I have some of it?
No I am not saying that. For the vulnerable and older people the vaccines are very useful.
Your earlier post said exactly that. In reply to a comment saying being vaccinated "overwhelmingly stops you ending up in hospital or dying of it", you replied saying that it doesn't.
Its probably 'overwhelming' if you are an old or vulnerable person, sure, but if you are a young person having a vaccine is of no consequence whatever. You would not be in hospital or die whether you had a vaccine or not. Why? because you are young and healthy.
That is totally wrong, complete bollocks. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation in *all* age groups.
I do not see how you could possibly claim that, given that healthy people under 16 have not even been vaccinated. and medical professionals are not even sure if they should be. They only u-turned on 16 and 17-year olds recently. Healthy young people simply do not suffer much from covid.
Hence the claim that the young are being used as a human shield for the old.
Because I'm looking at actual statistics? And seriously, are you really saying the claim is invalid because it hasn't been tested on under 16 year olds. What about the vast majority of the population older than that?
Here's a graphic showing the effect of vaccination, even as young as 25-34 the effect is profound.
Those are not statistics those are projections. But it is interesting, isn't it, that hospitalisations are much higher post vaccination than they were pre-vaccination on the same day last year, as the maths guy pointed out?
Yes we have delta now, and yes, the numbers would be much higher without vaccination. But you cannot prove the extent of the impact because we have no test experiment in the UK with lower vaxx rates.
What we do have is a test experiment in the US with delta versus lower vaxx rates. I am have not had a look at those in a while, but I did read that whilst some lo vaxx states were undoubtedly struggling, so were some high vaxx states (eg Hawaii). I also read that Israel is struggling, even though they are quite high vaxx.
Let's have a big old graphic.
A bit confusing, but in black we have cases in England (scale on the left). In red, we have hospital admissions in England (scale on the right)
It is interesting that hospital admissions are - oh, far lower against cases than this time last year.
In blue in the background, we have cumulative vaccinations - proportion of over-16s (against the blue percentages going upwards).
Of course, we have to take into account such things as the variants (Alpha taking off as a proportion of cases in green dashed lines last winter; Delta taking off in Blue dashed lines this summer).
And certainly the level of restrictions. The graphic was already getting way too busy, so I had that along the bottom. The darkness is how severe they are. The mix of colours and darknesses in September to October last year prior to Tiers shows how confusing it was then.
Superb graph. Edward Tufte might approve. Though it is a bit busy - are the bars adding anything?. It certainly shows how the epidemic here has changed its character.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
I am endlessly struck, and rather impressed, by XR's ability to organise decently large groups of people for quite committed actions. If only we could work out how they do it, without an expensive HR or other infrastructure, and apply it to other areas of life.
XR do it at the expense of operational security.
"serious" protestors are absolutely aghast about how lax they are with info and how obviously riddle with cops they are.
Then again, while we're looking at the devastation in Florida and Texas, we do have one in our midst who predicted all that back in late June.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida. Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
Hahaha! As I said to him upthread: satire - harder than it looks.
I am endlessly struck, and rather impressed, by XR's ability to organise decently large groups of people for quite committed actions. If only we could work out how they do it, without an expensive HR or other infrastructure, and apply it to other areas of life.
XR do it at the expense of operational security.
"serious" protestors are absolutely aghast about how lax they are with info and how obviously riddle with cops they are.
Let's hope those cops are keeping their trousers on..
I am endlessly struck, and rather impressed, by XR's ability to organise decently large groups of people for quite committed actions. If only we could work out how they do it, without an expensive HR or other infrastructure, and apply it to other areas of life.
XR do it at the expense of operational security.
"serious" protestors are absolutely aghast about how lax they are with info and how obviously riddle with cops they are.
I think it works for them, because the purpose and plan is to get arrested, thereby overwhelming the police and judicial response for the benefit of the next wave.
It is looking like everyone with Covid has gone on holiday in the SW.....
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
It is looking like everyone with Covid has gone on holiday in the SW.....
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
Beautiful weather today, but on the Red Funnel yesterday virtually no mask-wearing or social distancing. Absolutely ram-packed too.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
August, with English schools off should ceteris paribus be one of the lowest transmission times of the year. Schools, then universities, then christmas/new year to come. 100k may happen yet
Yes it could. That wouldn't surprise me at all. The virus tends to outperform. It's an overachiever. It's not the sort to leave anything on the pitch.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is looking like everyone with Covid has gone on holiday in the SW.....
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
Beautiful weather today, but on the Red Funnel yesterday virtually no mask-wearing or social distancing. Absolutely ram-packed too.
Less immunity through infection. Here in Kent where we (for obvious reasons) got absolutely clobbered by Alpha have not done nearly as bad this wave.
People on my commuter train have generally been quite sensible. I can’t pretend there is universal mask wearing but it’s been pretty high on the crowded trains. The one that shocked me was London buses - no one at all.
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
With regard to the header, is there a link between societies that are more religious and scepticism about COVID, and the policies (ie lockdowns) associated with it?
Certainly in the UK, there was a strong element of COVID compliance as a sort of secular faith: ie the NHS as a religion.
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Most big employers were happy for July to be a soft deadline for back to work and instead have said Sept (or sometimes Oct) is when they expect staff back under whatever new hybrid model is being adopted. That will be people on public transport, mostly wearing shit masks that in the face of delta do little more than give the wearer confidence, and then all day in an office with no mask and windows that quite often don’t open.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
If there is need for a further lockdown in the future Boris Johnson and the leaders of the devolved administrations may not take a political hit for that although they may if it is solely to protect the unvaccinated/antivaxxers.
The Government has clearly decided it's neither going to take action to make the lives of the refusers difficult, nor decline to have their Covid sickness treated as a priority in hospitals alongside everyone else's. We therefore have yet another serious problem to contend with.
If we end up with masks, social distancing, business closures and all the rest of the dismal Covid shit yet again later this Autumn just because of that lot, then there'll be serious ructions.
It is looking like everyone with Covid has gone on holiday in the SW.....
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
Beautiful weather today, but on the Red Funnel yesterday virtually no mask-wearing or social distancing. Absolutely ram-packed too.
Less immunity through infection. Here in Kent where we (for obvious reasons) got absolutely clobbered by Alpha have not done nearly as bad this wave.
People on my commuter train have generally been quite sensible. I can’t pretend there is universal mask wearing but it’s been pretty high on the crowded trains. The one that shocked me was London buses - no one at all.
A lot of people have gone nuts. I mean, this thing clearly does spread relatively easily in confined spaces. And vaccination, whilst fantastic, is not fool proof. Wearing a mask on trains, buses, supermarkets isn't the worst thing in the world on the grand scale of universal freedoms but people seem to have discarded them willy nilly. It's as if some collective stupidity has infected everyone. Or that they haven't been given any clear guidance from the top.
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
If I was the government I would be cracking on with the boosters - maybe mix and match - and vaccinating 12 to 17.
As other posters have noted cases are still high even during the 'best' conditions, 'summer' weather and school holidays. I am not hugely optimistic about how the autumn will develop.
It is looking like everyone with Covid has gone on holiday in the SW.....
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
Beautiful weather today, but on the Red Funnel yesterday virtually no mask-wearing or social distancing. Absolutely ram-packed too.
Some people wear masks getting out of their cars, but when they see the number of people not bothering any more, they (mostly) quickly take them off.
With regard to the header, is there a link between societies that are more religious and scepticism about COVID, and the policies (ie lockdowns) associated with it?
Certainly in the UK, there was a strong element of COVID compliance as a sort of secular faith: ie the NHS as a religion.
While the first sentence is a reasonable attempt to try to define a pattern, the second is unintelligible gibberish.
People complied with Covid restrictions because they "worship" the religion that is the NHS,
Seriously - can we get away from these incoherent ramblings on here?
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is madness that we have vaccines lying around, unused.
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster. People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Most big employers were happy for July to be a soft deadline for back to work and instead have said Sept (or sometimes Oct) is when they expect staff back under whatever new hybrid model is being adopted. That will be people on public transport, mostly wearing shit masks that in the face of delta do little more than give the wearer confidence, and then all day in an office with no mask and windows that quite often don’t open.
I'm not so sure. Many businesses are being extremely cautious. My employer (a large manufacturing concern) is still implementing almost exactly the same protocols for mask wearing, social distancing and officey types working as much as possible from home as it was in January. Shielding employees have been allowed back and that's just about it. They're very reluctant indeed to let the rest of it go.
I reckon that an awful lot of office-based companies, in particular, that are thinking of bringing people back will reverse ferret at the first sign of a major resurgence in cases.
@Alistair you are of course correct that you didn’t predict 100,000 cases a day. I think your mocking of those who saw signs of slowing/plateauing in the cases in the weekly variance led you to being lumped in with them. And yet there were signs there, and we are where we are. Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Most big employers were happy for July to be a soft deadline for back to work and instead have said Sept (or sometimes Oct) is when they expect staff back under whatever new hybrid model is being adopted. That will be people on public transport, mostly wearing shit masks that in the face of delta do little more than give the wearer confidence, and then all day in an office with no mask and windows that quite often don’t open.
The purpose of the mask is to prevent people with Delta (or any other variant) from spreading it to others. Surgeons wear masks to prevent their patients getting sick, not to protect them.
Almost any covering will have an impact on the spread of viral matter. And even if you are still letting 50% of the viral load through (which you probably aren't), that's still cut your infectiousness in half. Plus, of course, viral load matters.
Niall Ferguson: "If this is how the Biden presidency dies – much more like Jimmy Carter's than Nixon's or Ford's – then make no mistake about who stands to benefit. There, waiting in the wings, is the front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2024, the man whose Afghan exit strategy Joe Biden so foolishly embraced: Donald J. Trump."
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
It is madness that we have vaccines lying around, unused.
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster. People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
Yep agree with all of that. I would certainly be pleased for my son to get jabbed. He is 14 and the only one in my family who is not now vaccinated.
I'm not so sure. Many businesses are being extremely cautious. My employer (a large manufacturing concern) is still implementing almost exactly the same protocols for mask wearing, social distancing and officey types working as much as possible from home as it was in January. Shielding employees have been allowed back and that's just about it. They're very reluctant indeed to let the rest of it go.
I reckon that an awful lot of office-based companies, in particular, that are thinking of bringing people back will reverse ferret at the first sign of a major resurgence in cases.
I suspect there's a big difference between larger and smaller organisations.
The latter will be more office-based out of necessity - there's not many of them, the "office" is a big part of the company's profile and asset and the smallness of the organisation creates a feeling of belonging and togetherness which functions best in physical proximity.
Larger organisations, both private and public, will, I think, adopt increasingly hybrid practices. There are a number of Councils which are seeking to substantially reduce space to release savings to offset Covid costs and larger private companies are moving to re-purpose office space to more collaborative working area and away from the old-fashioned battery farms of banks of desks.
On topic. The stat in the header that interests me the most is not that related to the UK but that related to Sweden.
The country that spent most of the first year of the pandemic claiming that lockdowns were not the way to proceed and then suffered as a consequence is now almost the least lockdown sceptic of the whole of Europe.
Bit cheeky to ignore half the survey - in terms of people who think lockdowns work they're very much in the bottom half of the western european countries there.
Erm no.
One graph is of those who think lockdowns don't work (do more harm than good) - in Sweden that number is 15%, 3rd from bottom . The other graph is those who think the Covid risks are overstated - in Sweden that number is 14% - the lowest out of those polled.
Neither shows them in the bottom half of those thinking lockdowns don't work. Exactly the reverse in fact.
Err no, I'm not referring to the 2nd table at all. The first table includes the number who think Lockdowns work as well as the number who think they don't work (and those who think they make no difference).
Sweden is pretty near table topping in thinking lockdowns are net neutral, and the number of positives is lower than most of Western Europe - you're basing a conclusion on 1/3rd of the data presented when the rest does not agree.
That is cherry picking of the very worst kind.
First you take a subset of the group and look only at Western European Countries. Then you try and limit the 'think they work' to those who only think they do more good than harm when the two points are not comparable. There may be many amongst the 'Do both equally' who think they work but are not sure the social consequences are worth it.
You have basically drawn an unsustainable conclusion from a partial reading of the data and used that to justify an unsupportable statement.
You're literally accusing me of doing what you've done. I'm not trying to draw any conclusions - I merely point of that if you rank by 'think lockdowns make no net utility difference, Sweden comes 3rd out of 20, whereas if you rank by think they have negative ultility they come 18th of 20, and if you ask if they have positive utility they are middle of the pack.
You're the only one trying to only look at 1 of the 3 data points and ignore that the others do not paint the same picture.
Rubbish. My points stand. Picking only Western Europe from the table and then picking only one of the responses - and even that then not actually saying what you claim it says (indeed no where do any of the questions actually address the claim you made) - is cherry picking of the worst kind. You should be ashamed.
My firm is looking at 2 days a week in the office. I’d be happy with that.
I think I might be going against the herd....after being a long time WFHer, just as everybody else is embracing it, I am current considering a new opportunity that will see me give up WFH....am I crazy?
I'd like to know why people think I was predicting 100,000 cases a day?
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
We ain't done yet. Let's see what happens in September, though we aren't close to it yet.
Schools going back (especially as younger cohorts have not been vaccinated in the UK) will act as an accelerant on cases.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
Seems to me that if we’re stubbornly at 30k cases a day now, the most amenable time of the year in every way, it’s almost certain we’ll get to 100k per day before Xmas, with season effect, schools, unis, and the great Back To Work. The only reason I can see that we wouldn’t is if testing rates fall back.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
I read quite a persuasive thread on Twitter that argued that at this point boosters will make very little difference. Will try and dig it out.
Fairly long piece in today's Sunday Times on boosters.
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.
Comments
Alabama (I think I saw) has run out of ICU beds
Or is that Norfolk people?
Although I thought the fans behaved shamefully towards Unai Emery.
'Champions of League One, you'll never sing that.'
Remember this was when Liverpool were reigning Champions of Europe.
You're the only one trying to only look at 1 of the 3 data points and ignore that the others do not paint the same picture.
As they point out that Liverpool matches get more eyeballs than the likes of Burnley, Everton etc.
A bit confusing, but in black we have cases in England (scale on the left).
In red, we have hospital admissions in England (scale on the right)
It is interesting that hospital admissions are - oh, far lower against cases than this time last year.
In blue in the background, we have cumulative vaccinations - proportion of over-16s (against the blue percentages going upwards).
Of course, we have to take into account such things as the variants (Alpha taking off as a proportion of cases in green dashed lines last winter; Delta taking off in Blue dashed lines this summer).
And certainly the level of restrictions. The graphic was already getting way too busy, so I had that along the bottom. The darkness is how severe they are. The mix of colours and darknesses in September to October last year prior to Tiers shows how confusing it was then.
What was also interesting was the guest basically said football clubs are often massively undervalued (or rather they get themselves in such a mess, they become cheap to buy at the right time), piss poorly run from a business perspective and the transfer market is totally inefficient. He equated it to many clubs basically buying very expensive lottery tickets, rather than running a sound business.
I think what we are going to see a lot more of is multi-clubs as well. There is so many advantages of scale to own 4-5 clubs across different leagues.
" Well if its doing that in vaccinated Britain, the goodness knows what it is doing in unvaxxed American states like Texas and Florida.
Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon. "
Take a bow, contrarian! You were absolutely right. Just off by six weeks or so, but let's face it, more of a prediction than anything else.
As one American owner put it a few years ago.
'We want to sign a player from Southampton, we agree a fee with Southampton, we agree terms with the player then it turns out we have to pay £5 million to an agent for a deal that the clubs and the player are happy with.'
There is a really interesting bit in the Sunderland Amazon documentary, when the star player demands crazy money for a new deal and the owner (who has no experience owning a football club) calls a meeting with the managerial team and says what the hell, this is nuts, he is good, but that much....and one of the coaches says, it doesn't matter, he won't sign even if you pay him that....and the owner says why not, thats crazy money....his agent....surely his agent will be happy as well....no his agent specialises in moving his players to certain clubs...nudge nudge wink wink....
And sure enough the owner eventually offers the player the crazy money, and the agent says no sorry, he is going to France. He won't play for you again unless you sell him to this club.
The owner who made all his money in insurance business is just left there going I don't get, what is going on, this is just insanity.
* Yeah, I slightly paraphrased him. But only slightly.
Multiple people have said that now and they are either entirely misguided or bare faced liars.
I haven’t said anything about what’s going on with #COVID here in FL bc I haven’t had the words to describe it. The truth is we’re caring for 3x the number of patients we had last summer. 12 of our floors have been converted to covid units. We are stretched to the breaking point. https://t.co/MyZVmIuaUE
https://twitter.com/jennifermcaputo/status/1429020209478840323?s=19
2/ We’re putting multiple patients on ventilators every day. We’re doing CPR on patients younger than me in a desperate attempt to save their life. We’re calling dozens of families every day and telling them we don’t think their loved one is going to survive this.
3/Almost all our patients are unvaccinated. We didn’t have to get here. Please #GetVaccinated if you haven’t already. #WearAMask And tell the people you love how much you love them while you can.
https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
repealed?
Some family doctors have told The Independent they fear coming to work, and have seen staff quit over the threats they are receiving almost daily.
Some surgeries have been subjected to bomb threats, while others have been daubed with graffiti. Staff at one practice in London have received hate mail threatening workers over their role in the Covid vaccination rollout. Other were sent abusive text messages describing staff as “Nazi b*****ds”.
GPs say the majority of problems are being caused by the system being overwhelmed with demand, and a false perception among some patients that GPs are closed and seeing fewer patients in the wake of the Covid crisis.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/gps-violence-abuse-covid-vaccines-b1905420.html
Which led to John W. Henry tweeting 'What are they smoking over at the Emirates?'
"End of Angela Merkel's SPD? Latest Germany election polls as party support fails
ANGELA MERKEL'S Social Democratic Party (SDP) is in peril with support flocking to other candidates in the election race amid the German Chancellor's decision to step back from politics."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1480190/Angela-Merkel-SPD-german-election-2021-latest-polls-EVG
On topic, I think one reason that the public are so lockdown tolerant is that they understand how fragile our hospital system is when under high demand. Systems with more capacity cope better.
I mean there's two clubs outside the relegation zone and they've got no points.
https://twitter.com/XRebellionUK/status/1429488224179736586?s=20
Highest of any Nation with a Population over 1m
England amongst also rans Behind Denmark, Spain,Belgium,Portugal and now Ireland.
Socialism in Action
Absolute landslide.
I don't think we'll reach 100k/day, but I think it could be pretty close. 100k is - after all - just two doublings from here.
Now, a lot of the growth will be concentrated in the young: but those kids will take Delta back to granny, and that is a risk.
I've been one of the most consistently optimistic posters on here, and I think we'll weather this, but the Autumn could be quite difficult for us.
Random musings:
- I suspect countries that were happy to mix-and-match vaccines will end up doing better this time. We should (and could) have done that.
- I suspect that nasally administered vaccines will turn out to be much more effective in stopping people catching and spreading Delta, as it means that the immune system is primed in the right place.
- Viral load matters - the bigger the dose of the virus you get, the more likely you are to get really sick. And schools full of kids with Delta (plus public transport) are going to be absolutely appalling from that perspective. Expect a lot of teachers / bus drivers to get pretty sick.
"serious" protestors are absolutely aghast about how lax they are with info and how obviously riddle with cops they are.
Not even Trump can convince these people to get the jab.
And, that, folks is why we can't have nice things.
https://twitter.com/SchottHappens/status/1429451640369598476
The island too, having propped up Malmsebury’s table for much of the past year, is now well above average and appears dark purple on the government map.
Whether that level of cases matters or not we shall see. Failing to go gangbusters with the boosters will I fear be perhaps the governments gravest mistake so far in all this.
People on my commuter train have generally been quite sensible. I can’t pretend there is universal mask wearing but it’s been pretty high on the crowded trains. The one that shocked me was London buses - no one at all.
Re where we go now, I think it’s likely that we will see an effect of the English schools returning, but how much that adds to the hospital burden we shall have to see.
Certainly in the UK, there was a strong element of COVID compliance as a sort of secular faith: ie the NHS as a religion.
The Government has clearly decided it's neither going to take action to make the lives of the refusers difficult, nor decline to have their Covid sickness treated as a priority in hospitals alongside everyone else's. We therefore have yet another serious problem to contend with.
If we end up with masks, social distancing, business closures and all the rest of the dismal Covid shit yet again later this Autumn just because of that lot, then there'll be serious ructions.
As other posters have noted cases are still high even during the 'best' conditions, 'summer' weather and school holidays. I am not hugely optimistic about how the autumn will develop.
People complied with Covid restrictions because they "worship" the religion that is the NHS,
Seriously - can we get away from these incoherent ramblings on here?
People who got Pfizer early on, should be given an AZ booster.
People who got AZ early on, should be given a Pfizer/Moderna booster.
12-16 year olds whose parents want them to have the vaccine should be vaccinated.
And we should be experimenting with nasally administered boosters. The double positive of nasal administration is that it makes it even easier to adminster, and is less "scary" than a needle.
I reckon that an awful lot of office-based companies, in particular, that are thinking of bringing people back will reverse ferret at the first sign of a major resurgence in cases.
Almost any covering will have an impact on the spread of viral matter. And even if you are still letting 50% of the viral load through (which you probably aren't), that's still cut your infectiousness in half. Plus, of course, viral load matters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9915287/NIALL-FERGUSON-Images-baby-thrown-razor-wire-Bidens-desertion-human-face.html
The latter will be more office-based out of necessity - there's not many of them, the "office" is a big part of the company's profile and asset and the smallness of the organisation creates a feeling of belonging and togetherness which functions best in physical proximity.
Larger organisations, both private and public, will, I think, adopt increasingly hybrid practices. There are a number of Councils which are seeking to substantially reduce space to release savings to offset Covid costs and larger private companies are moving to re-purpose office space to more collaborative working area and away from the old-fashioned battery farms of banks of desks.
Hopefully not soon.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/22/hs2-eastern-leg-to-leeds-may-be-scrapped-new-leak-claims
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-j-michael-straczynski-contact-bbc-showrunner-newsupdate/
Although it will be fun to see Doctor Who turned into a rip off of Lord of the Rings.
If you go to the Z'ha'dum...
Summary: We don't have the data yet to decide, but NHS is prepping so that we can do it if needed this autumn. The very vulnerable will almost certainly get a boost e.g. immune suppressed.