Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
AIUI having FPTP while also having BQ with such concentrated support, means that the largest party in parliaments is not nesasraly the largest vote share.
‘The real dark days at Kabul airport are still ahead. UK government source: “People are going to get left behind. It’s a question of how many. It could be thousands. I don’t think people have realised the extent of the risk.”’
Can't be right, Joe told us all that the nice men from the Taliban was letting everybody through....
In fairness, and I am not saying he deserves much, what Biden said is that US passport holders were being let through check points by the Taleban but could not get through the crush of several thousand Afghans who are surrounding the airport. What the US seems to have done is arrange a pick up point outside the airport and then helicopter them in from there.
We must be facing the same problem: how do those we want to get out get to the airport and how do we winnow them out of the thousands, probably tens of thousands, desperate to leave?
a helicopter did make 3 round trips (that I could see) to a site a few miles ENE of the airport.
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
I think you have overestimated "grown ups" in all categories. Certainly in my days in the Camden Labour Party back in the 80s, "grown ups" would have been lucky to touch double figures. Citizen Smith's were certainly the majority grouping.
Mind you, if PB is a microcosm of reality the Conservative Party must be almost full to the brim with "partisan hacks".
Agreed.
London Labour might be a more Citizen Smithy than the rest of the party in England. In Scotland they are definitely in the minority. But could be a larger minority than my guesstimate.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Get something, hide it. If needed, bring it out. If not, give it in a couple of weeks as an out-of-the-blue.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Flowers or champagne, whichever she prefers. If she's really not got you anything shrug it off, its not a problem but let her know this was a special day.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Flowers or champagne, whichever she prefers. If she's really not got you anything shrug it off, its not a problem but let her know this was a special day.
Right - I'm now more confused than someone trying to make sense of an STV ballot paper.
There seem to be three "theories" out there:
1) It's all natural - the virus jumped from bats or pangolins to humans at the Wuhan live-food market. Some people seem wholly unconvinced.
2) The virus accidentally leaked from the Wuhan virology lab and the Chinese are trying desperately to cover it up because they don't want the rest of the world either asking why their bio-containment regime was so poor or seeking reparations.
3) It was a deliberate leak of a virus so see how the world would or could respond. The Chinese have suffered much higher levels of fatalities than has been widely reported but don't want the world to know this and have observed the creation and distribution of various vaccines with interest.
It's all about "face" with China - as long as they can save face, they'll be okay. What they don't want is anything which makes them look foolish or negligent in the eyes of the rest of the world or, in the case of the CCP, among their own people.
Three seems too ridiculous. The coincidence of the location of the outbreak and the coronavirus lab makes me lean towards two over one.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
you could get something but just keep it in reserve in case she does get you something.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
Long Covid will be much less likely among the vaccinated.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
Almost getting the impression that SLD is getting to be a local equivalent of the kind of 'Independent' which is a Tory without a blue rosette. Albeit largely remainer, tbf.
On Slab, the interesting thing is that it was historically in large part a Roman Catholic immigrant (ie Irish) party in reaction to the Protestant-nativist Unionist Tories and the more right wing home rulers such as Gibb. I expect you have heard the stories of Labour activists going round the housing schemes and telling any wifies with Irish surnames and Celtic shirts on the washing lines that they'd be deported as soon as the SNP came into power. Of course now they have lost much of that demographic to you know who, hence (in my perception) some of their utter hatred for the SNP. But I certainly was surprised, a few years ago, to find a Labour councils actively trying to fund Orange activities:
I seem to recall that that was reverse-ferreted, but even to make the attempt was quite something. A lot of the eastern Central Belt folks really, really do not like sectarian marches of either ilk in their towns, especially when half the rentamarch types in the West (and NI) seem to pile in for the day.
Scottish Labour got into bed with some very unsavoury types towards the end of its hegemony.
I saw the nasty sectarian side of Scottish Labour first hand, in Glasgow Kelvin, during George Galloway’s reign. Absolutely repulsive shits. A family friend, who had been very senior within Labour and resided in Kelvin at that time, refused to vote for Galloway. He always cast his vote at his second home. He and his wife were some of the “grown up” minority in the Party.
AIUI having FPTP while also having BQ with such concentrated support, means that the largest party in parliaments is not nesasraly the largest vote share.
The Bloc's seat total exceeds, but isn't vastly disproportionate to, its overall national share, rather as with the SNP over here. The real reason that the Tories had, as was the case last time around, a bigger share of the national vote but a lower number of seats than the Liberals is inefficient voter distribution. They pile up an awful lot of their vote in useless supermajorities in ridings out West.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
While I think that’s a bit strong, it’s certainly odd how reluctant they are to ‘crack on’ and vaccinate down to 12 year olds, especially as the mhra have ruled it safe. You have to wonder if there are some on the committee just implacably opposed.
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
I think your Orange Lodge figure is too high. Most of them vote Conservative and UNIONIST. I would go for 3% Orange Lodge, 67% illogical partisan hacks.
I rather suspect the, erm, orange "juice" is made with a rather stronger mix in certain places than in others. I also wonder if you were actually right maybe 10 years ago but that the Orange vote has since moved over to the full cream [edit] British nationalism of SCUP.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
While I think that’s a bit strong, it’s certainly odd how reluctant they are to ‘crack on’ and vaccinate down to 12 year olds, especially as the mhra have ruled it safe. You have to wonder if there are some on the committee just implacably opposed.
Some have already come out and said about how we need to be vaccinating the rest of the world above children in this country. I think that is an attitude that is effecting their focus.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Always best to be the one who has bought if there has to be just one of you, in my opinion.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
While I think that’s a bit strong, it’s certainly odd how reluctant they are to ‘crack on’ and vaccinate down to 12 year olds, especially as the mhra have ruled it safe. You have to wonder if there are some on the committee just implacably opposed.
Some have already come out and said about how we need to be vaccinating the rest of the world above children in this country. I think that is an attitude that is effecting their focus.
I’m not sure that’s their choice is it. Or do they feel that the best thing for the U.K. is to do that?
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
While I think that’s a bit strong, it’s certainly odd how reluctant they are to ‘crack on’ and vaccinate down to 12 year olds, especially as the mhra have ruled it safe. You have to wonder if there are some on the committee just implacably opposed.
Some have already come out and said about how we need to be vaccinating the rest of the world above children in this country. I think that is an attitude that is effecting their focus.
I’m not sure that’s their choice is it. Or do they feel that the best thing for the U.K. is to do that?
It shouldn't be, but it does seem to be the opinion of some members, in the same way as we saw some members of SAGE opinion has always been lockdown forever and it feeds into their advice.
I don't buy this "we need more data"....by the time we get concrete data on boosters it will be too late. It feels like a convenient excuse. in the same way as they have dragged their feet over vaccines for under 18s.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
While I think that’s a bit strong, it’s certainly odd how reluctant they are to ‘crack on’ and vaccinate down to 12 year olds, especially as the mhra have ruled it safe. You have to wonder if there are some on the committee just implacably opposed.
Some have already come out and said about how we need to be vaccinating the rest of the world above children in this country. I think that is an attitude that is effecting their focus.
I’m not sure that’s their choice is it. Or do they feel that the best thing for the U.K. is to do that?
That is ludicrous if that us there position because 10-20 million doses for the rest of the world is going to make no difference to global herd immunity.
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
SLAB, you may be right from your perch in Sweden 😀. Welsh Labour, I don't think so.
Llafur:
20% grown ups -- in which category we can put the uninspiring, but reasonably sincere, Drakeford
70% self-interested -- In Wales, there is no working economy. Many hundreds of millions of pounds of public money is used in providing sinecures for Labour cronies, in return for which these people support Labour in any way they can. In the South Wales Valleys, the choices for life improvement are either (i) emigration, (ii) a life of crime or (iii) a life in the Labour party. A typical specimen is the vacuous Sophie Howe, the very well-paid Future Generations Commissioner. Sje tweets every now and then, for ~100k a year.
10 % failures -- normally English. These are people like Jane Davidson, who have no connection to Wales, failed to have a political career in England because of general incompetence & fuckwittery, and so moved to Wales, where they prospered in the low-grade atmosphere of Llafur. It is Small Pond Syndrome.
Llafur has literally got only ONE thing in its favour.
It is not the Welsh Conservative Party.
That one thing has enabled it to remain in power for 20 years.
My current perch is in Scotland.
I defer to your far greater knowledge of Welsh society and affairs. However, an objective observer could perhaps guess that you vote Welsh Conservative 😉
Shame PC never managed to be the “Not The Welsh Conservative Party”.
I said which way I voted at the last Senedd elections
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Stephen Griffin @SGriffin_Lab · 4h No, absolutely not. Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.
1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet. 2. Long COVID is HUGE
BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
SLAB, you may be right from your perch in Sweden 😀. Welsh Labour, I don't think so.
Llafur:
20% grown ups -- in which category we can put the uninspiring, but reasonably sincere, Drakeford
70% self-interested -- In Wales, there is no working economy. Many hundreds of millions of pounds of public money is used in providing sinecures for Labour cronies, in return for which these people support Labour in any way they can. In the South Wales Valleys, the choices for life improvement are either (i) emigration, (ii) a life of crime or (iii) a life in the Labour party. A typical specimen is the vacuous Sophie Howe, the very well-paid Future Generations Commissioner. Sje tweets every now and then, for ~100k a year.
10 % failures -- normally English. These are people like Jane Davidson, who have no connection to Wales, failed to have a political career in England because of general incompetence & fuckwittery, and so moved to Wales, where they prospered in the low-grade atmosphere of Llafur. It is Small Pond Syndrome.
Llafur has literally got only ONE thing in its favour.
It is not the Welsh Conservative Party.
That one thing has enabled it to remain in power for 20 years.
My current perch is in Scotland.
I defer to your far greater knowledge of Welsh society and affairs. However, an objective observer could perhaps guess that you vote Welsh Conservative 😉
Shame PC never managed to be the “Not The Welsh Conservative Party”.
I said which way I voted at the last Senedd elections
Aha! A Plaid Cymru voter (I had to Google Mabon ap Gwynfor). I’m surprised. I had you down as a Tory. I sincerely apologise.
This is presumably the stuff which Mr ap Gwynfor said to the Bard's approval. Some of the issues [edit] very familiar from the recent discussion of some on PB:
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Always best to be the one who has bought if there has to be just one of you, in my opinion.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
I'm wondering if they've already decided to run the Covid booster and flu campaigns in tandem this year, and the details are just being thrashed out - although I can't find any definite answers with regard to a start date for the latter.
Documentation released in respect of the forthcoming flu campaign suggests a range of coverage in the adult population very much like Phase One of the Covid jab campaign, plus children aged 2-11, and possibly minus otherwise healthy adults aged 50-64 if capacity is insufficient to cover them. Shielders, shielder households, pensioners, health and social care workers - it mostly stacks up.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
I'm wondering if they've already decided to run the Covid booster and flu campaigns in tandem this year, and the details are just being thrashed out - although I can't find any definite answers with regard to a start date for the latter.
Documentation released in respect of the forthcoming flu campaign suggests a range of coverage in the adult population very much like Phase One of the Covid jab campaign, plus children aged 2-11, and possibly minus otherwise healthy adults aged 50-64 if capacity is insufficient to cover them. Shielders, shielder households, pensioners, health and social care workers - it mostly stacks up.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Reading an interesting piece this morning, there seems to be an argument developing it would be better for us all to have Covid via the Delta variant than to continue trying to avoid it (and presumable later variants) by vaccination.
The gist seems to be for those doubly vaccinated Coronavirus remains much less of a risk and the protection afforded through infection is greater and longer lasting than the protection afforded by vaccination alone. This seems connected to the way the virus acts and the way a vaccine acts.
Am I convinced?
The issue is even for some of those who are doubly vaccinated, a bout with coronavirus may not be entirely straightforward and it seems on paper a huge risk for many of the very elderly.
Now, we have the "well, they're all going to die soon" argument but on that basis none of us would bother as we're all going to die sooner or later so I think we can swerve that.
I understand the scientific theory and argument - it's a variation on herd immunity but it's a herd immunity with the comfort blanket of vaccination to ensure a much greater risk of survival for larger numbers.
I don't know.
Can't see it. Even if you do get Covid after being double-vaccinated, you STILL aren't immune, it's just that much less likely, for an indeterminate while. And you still risk being screwed by long Covid, or worse.
I must say it's difficult to understand quite what the argument is for getting it sooner rather than later - particularly given that the more people who get it, the more likely vaccine-resistant variants are to evolve.
Unless it's just that the government isn't going to bother to give booster jabs. Which is equally incomprehensible.
AIUI the situation remains that the Government is waiting on advice from the JCVI, and the the JCVI is still dithering, both on vaccination for the under 16s and on how many people should get boosters. The latest booster rumour is, apparently, cohorts 1-4 rather than cohorts 1-6, but frankly who knows? As to when the advice will finally be forthcoming, and whether or not the Government will stick to it (as they have up until now) or go further anyway, your guess is as good as mine.
It's as though they're anxious to avoid missing any opportunity whatsoever to be complacent and increase the death toll.
I'm wondering if they've already decided to run the Covid booster and flu campaigns in tandem this year, and the details are just being thrashed out - although I can't find any definite answers with regard to a start date for the latter.
Documentation released in respect of the forthcoming flu campaign suggests a range of coverage in the adult population very much like Phase One of the Covid jab campaign, plus children aged 2-11, and possibly minus otherwise healthy adults aged 50-64 if capacity is insufficient to cover them. Shielders, shielder households, pensioners, health and social care workers - it mostly stacks up.
When i got jabbed i remember they asked of I had had a fly jab within the last month. I presumed they were concerned there was some issue of doing both close to one another, but we think they are going to do both at the same time this winter?
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
When i got jabbed i remember they asked of I had had a fly jab within the last month. I presumed they were concerned there was some issue of doing both close to one another, but we think they are going to do both at the same time this winter?
Experts study viability of giving flu and Covid jabs at same time
Findings on side-effects and vaccine efficacy expected by August or September as NHS prepares for potential flu surge
While we've all heard the stories of the anguish of the hospitality industry and not least from @Cyclefree, there's an issue or two at work here.
Back in the day, there was some sense of local planning or co-ordination between the number of beds in a coastal town like Newquay or St Ives and the number of tables/places to eat. There was an attempt to plan capacity and work out when a town was "full".
2021 seems to show this no longer exists - having encouraged the confined to let themselves go, there's been an almost migratory instinct to head for the coast (all coasts, well, most) and especially to Cornwall.
The county isn't just full - it's bursting at the seams - and the inevitable capacity issues in terms of tables and food have come to the fore.
I can understand hospitality wanting to "catch up" on the disaster that was 2020 but as is ever the case, famine is now followed by feast. Had it been possible to have a more planned and phased re-opening of the coast to accommodate suitable numbers of visitors so much the better but as we have a Prime Minister who measures his own wellbeing in terms of keeping everyone "happy", those who fail to achieve the replete measure of happiness are of no interest.
The unopposed appointment of Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP as new leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats was about item no 15 on the news yesterday. Talk about picking a bad day for that announcement! Totally drowned out by Afghanistan, the SNP/Green government launch and lots of other things. The brief clip of his annoying pseudo-oration was a real stinker.
For a small party, the SLDs used to have a lot of talent. These days they are in the same boat as Scottish Labour: a talent desert.
Funnily enough, Tory leader Douglas Ross is fast overtaking SLab MP Ian Murray as the sanest and most persuasive Unionist spokesperson. Never thought I’d see that!
By far the best and most credible recovery for the Unionists would be a resurgence of the old coalition pals SLab and SLD. Judging by their two new leaders that ain’t happening any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how the all new Starmer Labour party copes with such ideas. Labour were happy with the idea of the LibDems propping Labour up but having then propped the Tories up it was Consternation and Uproar.
Supposedly Labour have moved towards support for proportionate voting systems. If they have then they will have to accept the idea of coalitions and some of those won't involve Labour. Are they grown ups now or illogical partisan hacks?
My guesstimate:
Labour Party in England 40% grown ups 20% illogical partisan hacks 40% Citizen Smiths
Welsh Labour 50% grown ups 30% illogical partisan hacks 10% Citizen Smiths 10% last of the true Britons
SLAB, you may be right from your perch in Sweden 😀. Welsh Labour, I don't think so.
Llafur:
20% grown ups -- in which category we can put the uninspiring, but reasonably sincere, Drakeford
70% self-interested -- In Wales, there is no working economy. Many hundreds of millions of pounds of public money is used in providing sinecures for Labour cronies, in return for which these people support Labour in any way they can. In the South Wales Valleys, the choices for life improvement are either (i) emigration, (ii) a life of crime or (iii) a life in the Labour party. A typical specimen is the vacuous Sophie Howe, the very well-paid Future Generations Commissioner. Sje tweets every now and then, for ~100k a year.
10 % failures -- normally English. These are people like Jane Davidson, who have no connection to Wales, failed to have a political career in England because of general incompetence & fuckwittery, and so moved to Wales, where they prospered in the low-grade atmosphere of Llafur. It is Small Pond Syndrome.
Llafur has literally got only ONE thing in its favour.
It is not the Welsh Conservative Party.
That one thing has enabled it to remain in power for 20 years.
My current perch is in Scotland.
I defer to your far greater knowledge of Welsh society and affairs. However, an objective observer could perhaps guess that you vote Welsh Conservative 😉
Shame PC never managed to be the “Not The Welsh Conservative Party”.
I said which way I voted at the last Senedd elections
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
What would the precautionary principle say about lab leak possibility versus zoonosis? (And anyway it could be both lab leak and zoonosis.)
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
So all at once and for free I get enhanced immunity to covid *and* a document which says I can go to places and do stuff? Sounds unimprovable to me.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
We now have full football stadiums again with no masks and no checks....i think it will be basically impossible to reverse this. Also, if you can only go in if you are vaxxed, half the players won't be able to play....
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
So all at once and for free I get enhanced immunity to covid *and* a document which says I can go to places and do stuff? Sounds unimprovable to me.
My point is that the continuance of that freedom will depend upon you continuing to play ball. To keep it you will have to take your booster and the flu vaccine.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
So all at once and for free I get enhanced immunity to covid *and* a document which says I can go to places and do stuff? Sounds unimprovable to me.
My point is that the continuance of that freedom will depend upon you continuing to play ball. To keep it you will have to take your booster and the flu vaccine.
Or you will lose it. Or some of it.
I doubt it will be contingent on you having had the flu shot.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
So all at once and for free I get enhanced immunity to covid *and* a document which says I can go to places and do stuff? Sounds unimprovable to me.
My point is that the continuance of that freedom will depend upon you continuing to play ball. To keep it you will have to take your booster and the flu vaccine.
Or you will lose it. Or some of it.
Fine by me. Bundling the flu vaccine into your claim looks a bit mad, and anyway it's no more up to "the government" whether vacc passports are a thing or not, than it is whether Kabul gets evacuated. It's the governments of Canada, Spain, France, Kenya and various Caribbean outfits I'm more worried about, cos they are the ones who decide whether to let me in.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
So all at once and for free I get enhanced immunity to covid *and* a document which says I can go to places and do stuff? Sounds unimprovable to me.
My point is that the continuance of that freedom will depend upon you continuing to play ball. To keep it you will have to take your booster and the flu vaccine.
Or you will lose it. Or some of it.
I doubt it will be contingent on you having had the flu shot.
OK. The point remains. Take your booster or lose some of your freedoms. That will be the deal and I assume you and most other people on here are on board with it.
I'm not of course, but then I'm sort of resigned to losing many of my freedoms anyway.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
We now have full football stadiums again with no masks and no checks....i think it will be basically impossible to reverse this. Also, if you can only go in if you are vaxxed, half the players won't be able to play....
Please note, this is part of our efforts to prepare fans for potential future entry procedures and under the current guidance, demonstrating COVID-19 certification is not mandatory. Therefore, it is not currently a condition of entry to the stadium and we will inform ticket holders if there is any change in policy regarding the requirement to demonstrate COVID certification.
As you say, the clubs can't insist on this because they'd have to apply the same standard to the staff - including players - as the fans.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
My view on this is unchanged. There won't be mandated "vaccine passports" in England. It was (is) rhetoric to encourage people to get the jab.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · 16h One role of universities is to foster societal debate about major societal questions. A such, we could imagine a new 'pandemic world university ranking', with infighting between academics from the same institution being a key metric. I nominate. 1. Harvard 2. Oxford 3. UCL
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
We now have full football stadiums again with no masks and no checks....i think it will be basically impossible to reverse this. Also, if you can only go in if you are vaxxed, half the players won't be able to play....
Please note, this is part of our efforts to prepare fans for potential future entry procedures and under the current guidance, demonstrating COVID-19 certification is not mandatory. Therefore, it is not currently a condition of entry to the stadium and we will inform ticket holders if there is any change in policy regarding the requirement to demonstrate COVID certification.
As you say, the clubs can't insist on this because they'd have to apply the same standard to the staff - including players - as the fans.
I find it incredible how widespread vaccine hesitancy is among sports people. They listen to medical professionals for everything else they do in life, training, nutrition, injury, but won't get jabbed....there is an NFL players who has had covid twice, and still an antivaxxer for him and his family.
Newcastle keeper hospitalised, lost 2 stone in a week and still can't play months later, and yet half the squad won't get vaccinated.
That is the most monstrous bullshite.... Nobody is in the decision-making process except Biden and whoever is controlling him. Is Merkel in the decision making process, or Macron? is there a decision making process at all?
Even some of Biden's own advisors are now openly contradicting him and distancing themselves from him.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I have it direct from a dr on one of the govt covid committees that behind closed doors it is taken as a given that it came from the lab.
Overwhelming impression from reporters on the ground at Kabul airport and contacts there is that the situation is getting worse. Yesterday both the PM and the President said it was getting better. MPs I’m speaking to from all parties are increasingly concerned. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1429094979079651335
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
Thanks for that, I'd been wondering how they did it......
Some external forces reportedly have incited the terrorists in #Pakistan to inflict damage on China and Chinese interests. Once China obtains evidence that they support terror forces in Pakistan, China will punish them.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
My view on this is unchanged. There won't be mandated "vaccine passports" in England. It was (is) rhetoric to encourage people to get the jab.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
Once again, it was because they didn't want to be on the same side as Trump as his supporters. That was their main concern, not the facts of the case.
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
We now have full football stadiums again with no masks and no checks....i think it will be basically impossible to reverse this. Also, if you can only go in if you are vaxxed, half the players won't be able to play....
Please note, this is part of our efforts to prepare fans for potential future entry procedures and under the current guidance, demonstrating COVID-19 certification is not mandatory. Therefore, it is not currently a condition of entry to the stadium and we will inform ticket holders if there is any change in policy regarding the requirement to demonstrate COVID certification.
As you say, the clubs can't insist on this because they'd have to apply the same standard to the staff - including players - as the fans.
I find it incredible how widespread vaccine hesitancy is among sports people. They listen to medical professionals for everything else they do in life, training, nutrition, injury, but won't get jabbed....there is an NFL players who has had covid twice, and still an antivaxxer for him and his family.
Newcastle keeper hospitalised, lost 2 stone in a week and still can't play months later, and yet half the squad won't get vaccinated.
Some combination of complacency, stupidity, and spending so very long living in "Covid secure" conditions, I suppose...?
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
A reminder that whether or not you decide to have the booster or the flu vaccine, the extent of your freedom will probably depend upon your decision,.....if the government brings in vaxx passports.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Goodness, who knows?!
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
We now have full football stadiums again with no masks and no checks....i think it will be basically impossible to reverse this. Also, if you can only go in if you are vaxxed, half the players won't be able to play....
Please note, this is part of our efforts to prepare fans for potential future entry procedures and under the current guidance, demonstrating COVID-19 certification is not mandatory. Therefore, it is not currently a condition of entry to the stadium and we will inform ticket holders if there is any change in policy regarding the requirement to demonstrate COVID certification.
As you say, the clubs can't insist on this because they'd have to apply the same standard to the staff - including players - as the fans.
I find it incredible how widespread vaccine hesitancy is among sports people. They listen to medical professionals for everything else they do in life, training, nutrition, injury, but won't get jabbed....there is an NFL players who has had covid twice, and still an antivaxxer for him and his family.
Newcastle keeper hospitalised, lost 2 stone in a week and still can't play months later, and yet half the squad won't get vaccinated.
Some combination of complacency, stupidity, and spending so very long living in "Covid secure" conditions, I suppose...?
They live on social media. I suspect that has played a big part in it.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Persuasive. I have heard the same scientific gossip "of course it came from the lab we're just not allowed to talk about it"
The only thing that makes me still consider non-lab natural zoonosis, even as unlikely-but-possible, is that it has happened so often. But that's it.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
Loads of people there think they don't need it and there's been a lot of "the vaccine has risks, we don't have COVID" anti-vaxxery. Some of it supported by government policy who continue to persist with zero COVID and have set unrealistic vaccination targets.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
Surely that was the plan, but as it is they have less than 20% fully vaccinated and have had a poor rollout same with Oz. My brother and sister in law live in Adelaide. They are similar age to me, mid fifties, I had my first jab in March, they had theirs two weeks ago.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
Do what I did one Valentine's Day.
I promised the other half something no other woman had ever received on Valentine's Day.
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
He's dyslexic aiui. Good on him to post such wordy responses IMO!
That is the most monstrous bullshite.... Nobody is in the decision-making process except Biden and whoever is controlling him. Is Merkel in the decision making process, or Macron? is there a decision making process at all?
Even some of Biden's own advisors are now openly contradicting him and distancing themselves from him.
Not only is Boris the only leader Biden has spoken to but Macron and everyone else has been sidelined, and that is the whole point about the Bloomberg texts and the wide view that Biden is the one responsible for the chaos
Some external forces reportedly have incited the terrorists in #Pakistan to inflict damage on China and Chinese interests. Once China obtains evidence that they support terror forces in Pakistan, China will punish them.
This is not the first attack on Chinese interests in Pakistan - Chinese nationals working on the huge Belt and Road Project were targeted at the Serena Hotel in Quetta in April.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Enjoy the dead flat case report for England while it lasts then. It’s almost exactly the same as last Saturday. The U.K. increase the I think is due to the schools going back in Scotland or some other factor up there I’m unaware of.
Some external forces reportedly have incited the terrorists in #Pakistan to inflict damage on China and Chinese interests. Once China obtains evidence that they support terror forces in Pakistan, China will punish them.
Now which country isn't best mates with either Pakistan or China...
Canadian elections are unpredictable because Canadians like to wildly zig-zag their vote, and that can develop in just a few days right at the end of the campaign.
Best guess?
I think they think Trudeau is a prat but O'Toole is a bit IDS, and the NDP leader is akin to Dawn Butler's sort of politics, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a similar results to last time.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
Australia suffers from significantly higher rates of anti-vaxxer sentiment than the UK (probably driven at least in part by complacency driven by the prior success of their suppression strategy,) coupled with a hopelessly mismanaged vaccination drive. The media and the regulator have worked together to trash the reputation of AZ, which is the only home-manufactured jab and of which they have a lot of stockpiled doses; Pfizer, which people are more likely to accept, is in chronically short supply; and AIUI the vaccination program hasn't focussed solely on working through the most vulnerable groups, either. Quite a lot of the jabs have gone to younger people, on the basis that they're the most likely transmitters in the event of an outbreak that needs to be contained.
The upshot of all this is that less than half of the over 70s have been fully vaccinated, let alone anyone else.
I don't know that much about what's going on in NZ, except that their vaccination rates are purported to be worse than Australia's.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
Our 54th was the day before yesterday, and much to my shame I had forgotten it (other things on my mind incl boiler breakdown). Anyway was mightily relieved when wife said her best way to celebrate it was to do nothing out of the ordinary.
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
Comments
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
AIUI having FPTP while also having BQ with such concentrated support, means that the largest party in parliaments is not nesasraly the largest vote share.
London Labour might be a more Citizen Smithy than the rest of the party in England. In Scotland they are definitely in the minority. But could be a larger minority than my guesstimate.
(worked for the first 35 anyway)
I saw the nasty sectarian side of Scottish Labour first hand, in Glasgow Kelvin, during George Galloway’s reign. Absolutely repulsive shits. A family friend, who had been very senior within Labour and resided in Kelvin at that time, refused to vote for Galloway. He always cast his vote at his second home. He and his wife were some of the “grown up” minority in the Party.
What the president got wrong and right
https://ianleslie.substack.com/p/biden-takes-the-buck
I don't buy this "we need more data"....by the time we get concrete data on boosters it will be too late. It feels like a convenient excuse. in the same way as they have dragged their feet over vaccines for under 18s.
@SGriffin_Lab
·
4h
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.
1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE
BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
https://nation.cymru/news/second-homes-crisis-more-young-people-will-be-forced-to-leave-if-welsh-governnment-doesnt-act/
That sort of "bought it".
Documentation released in respect of the forthcoming flu campaign suggests a range of coverage in the adult population very much like Phase One of the Covid jab campaign, plus children aged 2-11, and possibly minus otherwise healthy adults aged 50-64 if capacity is insufficient to cover them. Shielders, shielder households, pensioners, health and social care workers - it mostly stacks up.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Letter_AnnualFlu_2020-21_20200805.pdf
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Or are they going out of the window now??
Findings on side-effects and vaccine efficacy expected by August or September as NHS prepares for potential flu surge
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/22/experts-study-viability-of-giving-flu-and-covid-jabs-at-same-time
EDIT: I seem to recall reading elsewhere that early results from this study were rumoured to be positive, but I wouldn't swear to it.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1429022544460398595
(And anyway it could be both lab leak and zoonosis.)
Things seem to have gone quiet on that front, but I doubt there'll be a great clamour for them unless it becomes apparent that the hospitals are at serious risk of falling over due to pressure from unvaccinated Covid sufferers being admitted. If that happens then we may get some restrictions back, and I would expect public and political support for punitive measures targeted at refusers to increase significantly as a direct result.
The current British and American performance in Afghanistan is the first ever fully woke military operation.
Or you will lose it. Or some of it.
I'm not of course, but then I'm sort of resigned to losing many of my freedoms anyway.
Please note, this is part of our efforts to prepare fans for potential future entry procedures and under the current guidance, demonstrating COVID-19 certification is not mandatory. Therefore, it is not currently a condition of entry to the stadium and we will inform ticket holders if there is any change in policy regarding the requirement to demonstrate COVID certification.
As you say, the clubs can't insist on this because they'd have to apply the same standard to the staff - including players - as the fans.
Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
·
16h
One role of universities is to foster societal debate about major societal questions. A such, we could imagine a new 'pandemic world university ranking', with infighting between academics from the same institution being a key metric. I nominate.
1. Harvard
2. Oxford
3. UCL
Newcastle keeper hospitalised, lost 2 stone in a week and still can't play months later, and yet half the squad won't get vaccinated.
Even some of Biden's own advisors are now openly contradicting him and distancing themselves from him.
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1428979564894588929
Global Times has the following to say
Some external forces reportedly have incited the terrorists in #Pakistan to inflict damage on China and Chinese interests. Once China obtains evidence that they support terror forces in Pakistan, China will punish them.
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
The only thing that makes me still consider non-lab natural zoonosis, even as unlikely-but-possible, is that it has happened so often. But that's it.
Gro-Tsen
@gro_tsen
·
Aug 18
This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1427930536585175045
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
Dominic Raab wouldn’t even pick up the phone.
It’s time for Boris Johnson to sack him.
Pass it on. https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1429084373123358722/photo/1
Watching that clip says it all.
I promised the other half something no other woman had ever received on Valentine's Day.
I gave her a bottle of toilet duck.
I predict a rise in infections.
I concur.
"Pass it on"
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Best guess?
I think they think Trudeau is a prat but O'Toole is a bit IDS, and the NDP leader is akin to Dawn Butler's sort of politics, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a similar results to last time.
The upshot of all this is that less than half of the over 70s have been fully vaccinated, let alone anyone else.
I don't know that much about what's going on in NZ, except that their vaccination rates are purported to be worse than Australia's.
Journalist
The Brits are mounting patrols outside the airport with the Taliban
General
British forces at the gates are part of the US control