On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I've been astonished at the authoritarianism in Australia.
Canadian elections are unpredictable because Canadians like to wildly zig-zag their vote, and that can develop in just a few days right at the end of the campaign.
Best guess?
I think they think Trudeau is a prat but O'Toole is a bit IDS, and the NDP leader is akin to Dawn Butler's sort of politics, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a similar results to last time.
I'm just glad I didn't bet on the 1993 Canadian general election.
Just imagine the trauma for gamblers if you had bought Conservative seats.
There are, in fact, at least four competing hypotheses as to Covid origin, not three. Indeed possibly more but I'll keep it simple. For now
Here they are in no order
1. Non lab natural zoonosis. ie nothing to do with the lab, just a simple jump from an animal to a human in a market, or a home, or a shop, or a farm. Best evidence for this is precedent
2. Natural zoonosis BUT INSIDE, OR VITALLY CONNECTED TO the lab. This would be, say, a lab worker getting bitten by a bat in a Yunnan mine (we know the WIV went to Yunnanese mines to gather bats) and bringing the infection home to Wuhan. Or the bite happened in the lab in Wuhan, or a bat peed on a secretary, or a test tube full of natural virus was spilled in a BSL2 in Wuhan, a worker got infected, went to the market, et voila. This is probably the thesis supported by WHO right now
3. A virus was engineered to be more virulent, over time, inside the lab - ie nastier for humans and more infectious. "Gain of function". This was done so they could anticipate horrible new zoonotic viruses and have vaccines ready. Maybe universal vaccines. It was injected into, say, "humanised mice" - we know the WIV was also doing this. One of the mice bit a worker, he or she got infected with this especially nasty new engineered coronavirus, they went to the market.... et voila, again
4. The Chinese developed a specially nasty virus for reasons given above, but also because the Chinese military is investigating special new viral bioweapons (we know this is true, we also know the Chinese military has strong links with WIV). Someone, however high or low, then deliberately released this engineered bioweapon on the world, perhaps to fuck the world up, and test the new weapons
These are four very distinct hypotheses
In order of likelihood I'd have them like this, with the likeliest at the top
There are, in fact, at least four competing hypotheses as to Covid origin, not three. Indeed possibly more but I'll keep it simple. For now
Here they are in no order
1. Non lab natural zoonosis. ie nothing to do with the lab, just a simple jump from an animal to a human in a market, or a home, or a shop, or a farm. Best evidence for this is precedent
2. Natural zoonosis BUT INSIDE, OR VITALLY CONNECTED TO the lab. This would be, say, a lab worker getting bitten by a bat in a Yunnan mine (we know the WIV went to Yunnanese mines to gather bats) and bringing the infection home to Wuhan. Or the bite happened in the lab in Wuhan, or a bat peed on a secretary, or a test tube full of natural virus was spilled in a BSL2 in Wuhan, a worker got infected, went to the market, et voila. This is probably the thesis supported by WHO right now
3. A virus was engineered to be more virulent, over time, inside the lab - ie nastier for humans and more infectious. "Gain of function". This was done so they could anticipate horrible new zoonotic viruses and have vaccines ready. Maybe universal vaccines. It was injected into, say, "humanised mice" - we know the WIV was also doing this. One of the mice bit a worker, he or she got infected with this especially nasty new engineered coronavirus, they went to the market.... et voila, again
4. The Chinese developed a specially nasty virus for reasons given above, but also because the Chinese military is investigating special new viral bioweapons (we know this is true, we also know the Chinese military has strong links with WIV). Someone, however high or low, then deliberately released this engineered bioweapon on the world, perhaps to fuck the world up, and test the new weapons
These are four very distinct hypotheses
In order of likelihood I'd have them like this, with the likeliest at the top
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
Once again, it was because they didn't want to be on the same side as Trump as his supporters. That was their main concern, not the facts of the case.
And of course this shouldn't be in the mix with science. However I can't resist the urge to point out that an almost surefire way of getting on the correct side of an argument - if you're short of time and/or knowledge and looking for a shortcut - is to plonk yourself on the other side of it from Donald Trump and his supporters.
I am thoroughly impressed about how people are managing to link the collapse in Afghanistan to their stock anti-woke rants. I thought it might be flash in the pan but I see they are developing over the days and the theses are getting more complex and fleshed out.
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
I'm really really sorry for the number of spelling mistakes I made in that post, I wanted to posed it before todays COVID numbers where posted, at 1600 so I rushed.
I am Dyslectics and some mistakes always get though, but I do normally make an effort for limit that, in this cases time did not allow me to properly check I am sorry.
However I stand by my prediction, cases in England:
Today: 26,982 last Saturday: 26700
So a 1.01% increases Week on week, looks like its toping out.
(15-19 age group still rising fast thought! so maybe not)
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I've been astonished at the authoritarianism in Australia.
No idea where that comes from.
The day before yesterday, a child was wrenched away from her parents arms following confirmation she had covid and was forcibly removed in floods of tears as police pinned her parent to the floor
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I thought you had to where a mask on the tube? am I wrong or are people ignoring the rule?
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
I'm really really sorry for the number of spelling mistakes I made in that post, I wanted to posed it before todays COVID numbers where posted, at 1600 so I rushed.
I am Dyslectics and some mistakes always get though, but I do normally make an effort for limit that, in this cases time did not allow me to properly check I am sorry.
However I stand by my prediction, cases in England:
Today: 26,982 last Saturday: 26700
So a 1.01% increases Week on week, looks like its toping out.
(15-19 age group still rising fast thought! so maybe not)
Don't worry about it, I've never found it unintelligible as it's usually a phonetic mistake (e.g., herd-heard), so easy to understand.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I thought you had to where a mask on the tube? am I wrong or are people ignoring the rule?
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
I'm really really sorry for the number of spelling mistakes I made in that post, I wanted to posed it before todays COVID numbers where posted, at 1600 so I rushed.
I am Dyslectics and some mistakes always get though, but I do normally make an effort for limit that, in this cases time did not allow me to properly check I am sorry.
However I stand by my prediction, cases in England:
Today: 26,982 last Saturday: 26700
So a 1.01% increases Week on week, looks like its toping out.
(15-19 age group still rising fast thought! so maybe not)
There are, in fact, at least four competing hypotheses as to Covid origin, not three. Indeed possibly more but I'll keep it simple. For now
Here they are in no order
1. Non lab natural zoonosis. ie nothing to do with the lab, just a simple jump from an animal to a human in a market, or a home, or a shop, or a farm. Best evidence for this is precedent
2. Natural zoonosis BUT INSIDE, OR VITALLY CONNECTED TO the lab. This would be, say, a lab worker getting bitten by a bat in a Yunnan mine (we know the WIV went to Yunnanese mines to gather bats) and bringing the infection home to Wuhan. Or the bite happened in the lab in Wuhan, or a bat peed on a secretary, or a test tube full of natural virus was spilled in a BSL2 in Wuhan, a worker got infected, went to the market, et voila. This is probably the thesis supported by WHO right now
3. A virus was engineered to be more virulent, over time, inside the lab - ie nastier for humans and more infectious. "Gain of function". This was done so they could anticipate horrible new zoonotic viruses and have vaccines ready. Maybe universal vaccines. It was injected into, say, "humanised mice" - we know the WIV was also doing this. One of the mice bit a worker, he or she got infected with this especially nasty new engineered coronavirus, they went to the market.... et voila, again
4. The Chinese developed a specially nasty virus for reasons given above, but also because the Chinese military is investigating special new viral bioweapons (we know this is true, we also know the Chinese military has strong links with WIV). Someone, however high or low, then deliberately released this engineered bioweapon on the world, perhaps to fuck the world up, and test the new weapons
These are four very distinct hypotheses
In order of likelihood I'd have them like this, with the likeliest at the top
I'm calling today or the next few days the peak in terms of cases in England, form this mini wave.
NI, Scotland and Walees may are defiant so this may not show in the total UK numbers.
May be wrong, but here is my reasoning, from looking at the cases and vaccination rates at the defiant age groups.
Assumptions:
1) The number of people you need immune to achieve hear immunity varies depending on the rules and regulations in place at the time.
2) Immunity can be form infection or vaccine.
3) Cases largely but not completely transmit in age group.
From that and reading the age related cases for England:
a) After the bump in cases from the EUROS, the England catapulted itself over Heard immunity with the rues in force at the time. and cases dropped in all age groups.
b) Then with the end of restrictions including on night clubs, cases rose fast in the 20-24 age group and and also rose in 15-19, and 25-29, but fell in all other age groups. unsurprising as this is also the age group that is lease fully vaccinated
c) Ones the rise in the 15-29 became large enough, there were enough total cases for 'out of age group' transition for all other age groups to start rising.
d) cases in the 20-24 age group started dropping a week ago, and now the 25-29 age group also dropping.
e) this drop in 20-29 is likely to be because they age now being given second jabs in large numbers, and are getting immunity though infection more than any other age group, also some more first jabs.
f) A drop in cases rates in 20-29 year olds will mean a drop in 'out of age group' transition, but there will be a delay, probably of about a week, which means about now.
So I am calling peek now (or very soon)
What happens when the schools go back is a different matter.
Were you using voice recognition software for this? Interesting spelling mistakes throughout.
I'm really really sorry for the number of spelling mistakes I made in that post, I wanted to posed it before todays COVID numbers where posted, at 1600 so I rushed.
I am Dyslectics and some mistakes always get though, but I do normally make an effort for limit that, in this cases time did not allow me to properly check I am sorry.
However I stand by my prediction, cases in England:
Today: 26,982 last Saturday: 26700
So a 1.01% increases Week on week, looks like its toping out.
(15-19 age group still rising fast thought! so maybe not)
Was not a criticism, but an enquiry. Dyslexia was my second guess.
On the substance, I am disappointed that we have not already come down from the peak of new cases, but am happy that they are not rising out of control. Like you, I expect cases to fall soon - but then I expected them to already be falling. This disease continues to confound.
I am thoroughly impressed about how people are managing to link the collapse in Afghanistan to their stock anti-woke rants. I thought it might be flash in the pan but I see they are developing over the days and the theses are getting more complex and fleshed out.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
Australia suffers from significantly higher rates of anti-vaxxer sentiment than the UK (probably driven at least in part by complacency driven by the prior success of their suppression strategy,) coupled with a hopelessly mismanaged vaccination drive. The media and the regulator have worked together to trash the reputation of AZ, which is the only home-manufactured jab and of which they have a lot of stockpiled doses; Pfizer, which people are more likely to accept, is in chronically short supply; and AIUI the vaccination program hasn't focussed solely on working through the most vulnerable groups, either. Quite a lot of the jabs have gone to younger people, on the basis that they're the most likely transmitters in the event of an outbreak that needs to be contained.
The upshot of all this is that less than half of the over 70s have been fully vaccinated, let alone anyone else.
I don't know that much about what's going on in NZ, except that their vaccination rates are purported to be worse than Australia's.
My understanding of the NZ situation is very different, even if they have about the same number fully vaccinated.
Their the problem is supply, vaccination started with people in ports, airports airlines and their family (which is why my sister in Law was vaccinated early) and has then followed the 'prioritise the most venerable' as in most other parts of the would, but will a very slow supply of the vaccine, IIRC they have taken some of the Australian AZ supply's that where not being used and where about to go out of date, but are still behind in fully vaccinated 18% to 20% but little sine of significant Anti-Vaz movement.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
"Pass it on"
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Persuasive. I have heard the same scientific gossip "of course it came from the lab we're just not allowed to talk about it"
The only thing that makes me still consider non-lab natural zoonosis, even as unlikely-but-possible, is that it has happened so often. But that's it.
Not allowed by who? The science police? It clearly seems most likely to be a lab leak, and these do happen, as the U.K. has shown in the past, but it’s very, very hard to prove.
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
"Pass it on"
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
I'm puzzled. What's childish about it? It's plain English, both clearer and more concise than alternatives such as 'Forward it to your FB likes' or similar.
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Persuasive. I have heard the same scientific gossip "of course it came from the lab we're just not allowed to talk about it"
The only thing that makes me still consider non-lab natural zoonosis, even as unlikely-but-possible, is that it has happened so often. But that's it.
That is indeed 'It' and for me quite a big one. But just to clarify, are you moving from 10% to "less than 0.1%" now for natural zoonosis of Covid? I'll update my records if you are.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
"We keep you alive to serve this ship blog. Row Write well and live!"
Remember that Biden reassured us that Taliban and ISIS hate each other so that's all fine
"JUST IN - ISIS operating at #Kabul airport according to unconfirmed French intelligence as reported by @suddafchaudry. Pentagon's Kirby: “We’re not going to get into specific details about the threat environment.”"
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
Delighted to hear it and congratulations. But what have you both been up to over the past 18 months for you not to have had quality time together coming out of your woo-wah.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
First out, herd immunity is not an unhelpful term. It is a crucial concept, upon which all vaccination programmes are based. The twat who wrote that tweet loses 90% credibility out of the gate with that statement.
Regardless of take up and efficacy, we will still reach herd immunity at some point in the way we do with the flu - herd immunity will be reached against particular strains through a combination of vaccination and disease. But new strains that evade that herd immunity arise in the case of the flu. Fortunately, COVID is not as able to completely change its immunogenicity in the same manner as the flu can, so while new strains partially evade vaccines, or can reinfect those who've previously been exposed, when new strains emerge, it is not going back to an R naught situation.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
David Coburn!
I'm sure Mrs Carnyx will have come up with something better than that.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
Our 54th was the day before yesterday, and much to my shame I had forgotten it (other things on my mind incl boiler breakdown). Anyway was mightily relieved when wife said her best way to celebrate it was to do nothing out of the ordinary.
Many congratulations that is a fantastic achievement.
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
David Coburn!
That's true, I suppose, though Mr Brown might have a higher score ...
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
Our 54th was the day before yesterday, and much to my shame I had forgotten it (other things on my mind incl boiler breakdown). Anyway was mightily relieved when wife said her best way to celebrate it was to do nothing out of the ordinary.
Many congratulations that is a fantastic achievement.
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
David Coburn!
I'm sure Mrs Carnyx will have come up with something better than that.
I would hope so, otherwise the gratification would reside solely in the cake within which Mr Coburn was hiding.
So, the Argentinian in laws cannot come to my Scotch nephew's wedding because Argentina has a monthly quota on readmission of its citizens, so if they come over in September they can't go home till March.
On the plus side I can stand down my crash course in colloquial Spanish.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
That’s too pessimistic. Infection is likely to lead to decent immunity. Still not many genuine reinfections. Plus repeated infections will increase immunity. Generally for us you get a lot of bugs as a child and this gradually reduces over time. Many healthy adults rarely get ill until their immune system starts to wane with advanced years. Covid will likely be like this. Plus we will be able to tweak the vaccines. So yes, Covid is here to stay, but will not be the huge issue it has been up to now. Take a look around. U.K. is mostly back to normal, and we are coping. I’m sure it’s tough for some, the hospitals have pressure, but to be honest, when don’t they?
I look forwards to the C4 documentary tomorrow. Reviews say it demolishes the scientists who have been playing down the lab leak theory and presents compelling evidence of how the virus may have been developed at the WIV and then accidentally leaked into the wider population.
If it's true then every single scientist involved in the cover up needs to be put up on charges. All of the ones who signed that letter to the Lancet should lose their funding. Get the politics out of science.
The interesting - to me - thing about this programme is that it is saying what was unsayable as little as a year ago. Considerable effort was expended by science, the media, big tech, and so on, to try to silence any suggestion of a lab leak. Why? In darker moments last year it felt like a big conspiracy to keep the world permanently locked down, but really I think the truth is slightly more mundane - aside from those with something specific to hide, they were driven by the force of believing themselves to be the good guys. And in doing so felt no compunction at all about wildly overstepping the mark.
I plan to watch that prog. As to why there was reluctance to allow "lab leak" to gain traction, I think one factor was the fear it would be conflated with the more lurid "bioweapon" theory. Donald Trump was whipping up an atmosphere of paranoia and sinophobia around the pandemic to distract from his negligence. If he'd managed to convince his public that China had engineered Covid and launched it on America, got himself reelected on this basis and in such an atmosphere - well you do the math as they say.
Again, a bit of a misunderstanding
Some of the people desperately trying to silence the "lab leak" hypothesis early on, DELIBERATELY conflated it with the bioweapon theory - "are you really trying to tell us the Chinese engineered a lethal virus then launched it on the world, OMG you're racist and mad, of course it came from natural zoonosis, probably in the market"
They did this because that way they could smear the entire lab leak hypothesis by linking it with more extreme fringe theories. This is what happened. Go and read the science literature and social media of the time. Whereas in fact most people were merely suggesting a basic lab leak - a scientists bitten by a bat, a spilled test tube in Wuhan, someone leaving a door open, a simple accident - which is and remains far more likely
However there is now the complicating issue of Gain of Function, which grows in salience the more we learn of what they were doing in Wuhan. Again this does not mean "deliberate leak of engineered killer virus". It does mean that the accidental leak might, very sadly for all of us, have involved a virus which had already been altered so as to be especially virulent for humans. That is the science they were doing at the WIV
That is also a possibility
I get that. Linking something you disagree with and/or dislike with something extreme and lurid is a classic way to discredit. I can imagine it happened in places. But you're not telling me Trump and Trumpery wouldn't have profited from the widespread belief that China attacked America with Covid. It would have. That's why he pushed it in his trademark 'nudge/wink' fashion. So, the fear of that, of the possible repercussions if it took off, was imo a factor in what looks now like an underestimate of how likely it is that the pandemic was caused by a lab accident rather than via natural zoonosis. That's all I'm saying. And also let's remember that natural origins remains four square in the frame. It'd be easy to think otherwise if one read only your posts on this topic.
Natural non lab zoonosis is still clearly possible. I’d never deny that. But it’s not ‘four square in the frame’, to my mind it’s about 5-10% likely, now
I'm not an expert on this but my university friend is, he rated a non-lab explanation at less than 0.1% probability due to the number of lineages required to get from the closes natural SARS like virus to Wuhan COVID-19. It isn't tenable for that much viral evolution to occur to go from what it was to what it became that allowed human to human transmission. He seemed certain about it last weekend when we went for a drink.
In his view (a very soft lefty remainer) anyone pushing the animal origin idea is doing it for political reasons to allow China to save face. He implied that it's an open secret within the scientific community that it was a lab leak without saying the specific words.
Persuasive. I have heard the same scientific gossip "of course it came from the lab we're just not allowed to talk about it"
The only thing that makes me still consider non-lab natural zoonosis, even as unlikely-but-possible, is that it has happened so often. But that's it.
Not allowed by who? The science police? It clearly seems most likely to be a lab leak, and these do happen, as the U.K. has shown in the past, but it’s very, very hard to prove.
By peer group pressure, in the main. If science admits that science has harvested or created, and then leaked, a terrible virus that has decimated the world, that is going to be Very Bad for Science.
Careers will end, labs will close, journals will shut, funding will cease. If it gets really bad, there could be trials and jails.
it would be particularly apocalyptic for Virology, and that is where you find the most hysterical, desperate attempts to shut down the Lab Leak Hypothesis
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
In about 10 days or so.
I wonder who could possibly be fronting the Devomax, most devolved parliament in the world, option? But I will just have to wait and see.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
David Coburn!
PS Strictly that's federalism isn't it? But I'm not sure if the powers are to be simply devolved (not true federalism) or permanently decentralised in UKIP/RefUK's viewpoint.
Scott's on a get rid of Raab rant - prety much like all of his others it depends on bad news to keep it going. All else will be ignored unless something worse happens somewhere else
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
Australia suffers from significantly higher rates of anti-vaxxer sentiment than the UK (probably driven at least in part by complacency driven by the prior success of their suppression strategy,) coupled with a hopelessly mismanaged vaccination drive. The media and the regulator have worked together to trash the reputation of AZ, which is the only home-manufactured jab and of which they have a lot of stockpiled doses; Pfizer, which people are more likely to accept, is in chronically short supply; and AIUI the vaccination program hasn't focussed solely on working through the most vulnerable groups, either. Quite a lot of the jabs have gone to younger people, on the basis that they're the most likely transmitters in the event of an outbreak that needs to be contained.
The upshot of all this is that less than half of the over 70s have been fully vaccinated, let alone anyone else.
I don't know that much about what's going on in NZ, except that their vaccination rates are purported to be worse than Australia's.
My understanding of the NZ situation is very different, even if they have about the same number fully vaccinated.
Their the problem is supply, vaccination started with people in ports, airports airlines and their family (which is why my sister in Law was vaccinated early) and has then followed the 'prioritise the most venerable' as in most other parts of the would, but will a very slow supply of the vaccine, IIRC they have taken some of the Australian AZ supply's that where not being used and where about to go out of date, but are still behind in fully vaccinated 18% to 20% but little sine of significant Anti-Vaz movement.
The attitude of some governments and their leaders to AZT must surely amnouint to the medical equivalent of a war crime - it's cheap, it works, it appears to endure really well and it has saved hundreds of thousands of lives. Yet....
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
Was looking for a Corby gag on the basis of "if pressed," but it's too much work.
Sad to note Corby's passing, I have both pressed my trousers in his gadget and crossed the Atlantic in a yacht designed by his son.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
"Pass it on"
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
I'm puzzled. What's childish about it? It's plain English, both clearer and more concise than alternatives such as 'Forward it to your FB likes' or similar.
I'd say we are so far apart in what we think, it's not worth debating it
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
"Pass it on"
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
They're like children playing at politics - utterly clueless.
Since the immunized and the previously infected can still catch it and transmit to others, the reason for vaccination has shifted somewhat from social responsibility and herd immunity to personal protection.
Well my forecast that the Southern Braves had the 100 won may prove to be the worst I have ever made in an extremely crowded field. This is a massacre.
Well my forecast that the Southern Braves had the 100 won may prove to be the worst I have ever made in an extremely crowded field. This is a massacre.
If the Braves come back from this it'd be one of the biggest comebacks of all time.
About as likely as Labour winning a majority at the next election though.
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
Half the staff in the hospital haven’t been vaccinated? That’s utterly bonkers, they must know that:
1. They’re going to get it at some point, so might as well have some form of immunity to it 2. The hospital will become the focus point of outbreaks, and people who come in because of a minor accident will go home with Covid for their troubles.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
Mrs J insists on having her jeans pressed?
My dad used to give my jeans creases like a pair of trousers. I blame the grenadier guards and police...
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
My second wedding anniversary in a couple of weeks, sadly I will be away with work that day and not back home with her for 3 days after, trying to think of something more imaginative than flowers to arrive on the day unexpectedly, any thoughts?
Off topic, West Yorkshire is fecking mental today. Stag parties. Hen parties. Football fans. Race goers heading to York.
I predict a rise in infections.
I've been in York for most of the week.
I concur.
Absolutely the same in London
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I suspect it will be even worse next weekend with it being the bank holiday weekend/last weekend before the kids in England go back to school.
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
Are we going to be treated to a thread detailing what might happen in a multi-option Scottish independence referendum held under AV?
There are, in fact, at least four competing hypotheses as to Covid origin, not three. Indeed possibly more but I'll keep it simple. For now
Here they are in no order
1. Non lab natural zoonosis. ie nothing to do with the lab, just a simple jump from an animal to a human in a market, or a home, or a shop, or a farm. Best evidence for this is precedent
2. Natural zoonosis BUT INSIDE, OR VITALLY CONNECTED TO the lab. This would be, say, a lab worker getting bitten by a bat in a Yunnan mine (we know the WIV went to Yunnanese mines to gather bats) and bringing the infection home to Wuhan. Or the bite happened in the lab in Wuhan, or a bat peed on a secretary, or a test tube full of natural virus was spilled in a BSL2 in Wuhan, a worker got infected, went to the market, et voila. This is probably the thesis supported by WHO right now
3. A virus was engineered to be more virulent, over time, inside the lab - ie nastier for humans and more infectious. "Gain of function". This was done so they could anticipate horrible new zoonotic viruses and have vaccines ready. Maybe universal vaccines. It was injected into, say, "humanised mice" - we know the WIV was also doing this. One of the mice bit a worker, he or she got infected with this especially nasty new engineered coronavirus, they went to the market.... et voila, again
4. The Chinese developed a specially nasty virus for reasons given above, but also because the Chinese military is investigating special new viral bioweapons (we know this is true, we also know the Chinese military has strong links with WIV). Someone, however high or low, then deliberately released this engineered bioweapon on the world, perhaps to fuck the world up, and test the new weapons
These are four very distinct hypotheses
In order of likelihood I'd have them like this, with the likeliest at the top
3 2 1 4
(it is close between 3 and 2)
There is another overlay on 2 & 3 which is equally important: who knew what, when?
Was it a low level employee who got bitten by a bat/mouse/etc because they weren’t following protocols, and to avoid getting into trouble, told no one?
Or was there a failure of a containment system that resulted in 1,000 virtues being vented into the air? And where the lab director knew from day one.
Since the immunized and the previously infected can still catch it and transmit to others, the reason for vaccination has shifted somewhat from social responsibility and herd immunity to personal protection.
Its both.
The vaccinated are still considerably less likely to both catch it and to pass it on.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
Since the immunized and the previously infected can still catch it and transmit to others, the reason for vaccination has shifted somewhat from social responsibility and herd immunity to personal protection.
Its both.
The vaccinated are still considerably less likely to both catch it and to pass it on.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
That’s too pessimistic. Infection is likely to lead to decent immunity. Still not many genuine reinfections. Plus repeated infections will increase immunity. Generally for us you get a lot of bugs as a child and this gradually reduces over time. Many healthy adults rarely get ill until their immune system starts to wane with advanced years. Covid will likely be like this. Plus we will be able to tweak the vaccines. So yes, Covid is here to stay, but will not be the huge issue it has been up to now. Take a look around. U.K. is mostly back to normal, and we are coping. I’m sure it’s tough for some, the hospitals have pressure, but to be honest, when don’t they?
That's pretty much what I meant. Covid won't disappear but we'll have enough population immunity (via vaccination and infection) to render it manageable. Similar to flu if you like.
But on the lingo, is that a state of Herd Immunity? My layman's understanding is no it isn't. It's something short of it. If we have Herd Immunity to a disease it means it can't get going (either in mild or serious form) anywhere for very long. It might break out here and there, in a few individuals, but will be rapidly quashed since it won't have anywhere to go.
And with Covid, as I understand the current thinking, this isn't a realistic goal. We won't be achieving Herd Immunity (and hence the effective disappearance of the virus) in the foreseable future. But we will be achieving the background endemic situation you describe.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
The chances of a 9/11 20th anniversary attack must be pretty high I guess. I'll have moved to a sleepy-ish Essex village by then, and my missus gave up working at Stepney Green in June, thank God.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
It seems the overriding motive was to move ahead of the 9/11 anniversary rather than to implement a well worked out evacuation scheme (which they must have had). Perhaps because properly implementing the scheme would have gone past the 20th anniversary.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
The chances of a 9/11 20th anniversary attack must be pretty high I guess. I'll have moved to a sleepy-ish Essex village by then, and my missus gave up working at Stepney Green in June, thank God.
ISIS or AQ can now, also, take their revenge at their leisure on all the westerners stuck inside Afghanistan - if these people don't all get out (which seems hideously possible now)
We've potentially lined up a decade of ISIS torture porn on stranded westerners. Well done, Sleepy Joe
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
That’s too pessimistic. Infection is likely to lead to decent immunity. Still not many genuine reinfections. Plus repeated infections will increase immunity. Generally for us you get a lot of bugs as a child and this gradually reduces over time. Many healthy adults rarely get ill until their immune system starts to wane with advanced years. Covid will likely be like this. Plus we will be able to tweak the vaccines. So yes, Covid is here to stay, but will not be the huge issue it has been up to now. Take a look around. U.K. is mostly back to normal, and we are coping. I’m sure it’s tough for some, the hospitals have pressure, but to be honest, when don’t they?
That's pretty much what I meant. Covid won't disappear but we'll have enough population immunity (via vaccination and infection) to render it manageable. Similar to flu if you like.
But on the lingo, is that a state of Herd Immunity? My layman's understanding is no it isn't. It's something short of it. If we have Herd Immunity to a disease it means it can't get going (either in mild or serious form) anywhere for very long. It might break out here and there, in a few individuals, but will be rapidly quashed since it won't have anywhere to go.
And with Covid, as I understand the current thinking, this isn't a realistic goal. We won't be achieving Herd Immunity (and hence the effective disappearance of the virus) in the foreseable future. But we will be achieving the background endemic situation you describe.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 As I've pointed out a number of times, there is a terribly confusing ambiguity as to what the phrase “herd immunity” (or its synonyms, e.g., “collective immunity”) means. In the SIR model it's the point where R becomes ≤1. But in real life?
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
Was looking for a Corby gag on the basis of "if pressed," but it's too much work.
Sad to note Corby's passing, I have both pressed my trousers in his gadget and crossed the Atlantic in a yacht designed by his son.
They used to be in every hotel room, didn't they, along with the Gideon bible. I must admit I used the latter more.
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
I think, Bidan has some responsibility for the low Vax rate in the US.
And I only mean some, ultimately it is the individual who is responsible for there actions, and choses, and we should never gloss over that.
But back at the start of the year, the US vaccination role out was going well, in terms of 'vaccines given' TRUMP is bad for lots of reasons but the early vaccine plan in the US was not one of them, not the best, that was Israile, or the second best in the developing would that was the UK, but better than there Canada, or the EU or Aus and NZ or Japan and S Korea, overall apart for Israel the UK and half a dozen very rich small nations, it was great.
However, Bidan decided to 'trash talk' the 'vaccine plan' and tolled everybody who would listed, how he was going to 'fix it' 'make it better', how a he Bidan a Democrat who 'believed in science' would be a world beater with the vaccine.
believe it of not, there are a lot of US folk who passionately dislike Bidan, it may be unfair but its accurate, not all of theses people were Anti Vax, or anti science, but just did not want to give Bidna 'a win' where not interested in doing something that he would take credit for. and if you are young and heathy, and cases are fulling then it must have seemed an easy thing to just not do. ones you then get criticised and vilified for a chose you make, in many cases it hardens people in their position more than it changes it. and I've seen much more criticism of Unvaccinated than attempts at reasoning.
I'm not a fan of a lot of Obamas policies, but that's different form opinions on the man, and he as stated that he declined to be the public face of some issues and campaigns, because he know that would backfire with a big section of society, I think he was right, and even if I disagreed with some of the campaigns, I have more respect for him for his chose.
And for the avoion of doubt, can I reiterate, responsibility for an individuals chose is primarily the individual nobody else not even Biden. Just Bidan has not helped.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
The chances of a 9/11 20th anniversary attack must be pretty high I guess. I'll have moved to a sleepy-ish Essex village by then, and my missus gave up working at Stepney Green in June, thank God.
ISIS or AQ can now, also, take their revenge at their leisure on all the westerners stuck inside Afghanistan - if these people don't all get out (which seems hideously possible now)
We've potentially lined up a decade of ISIS torture porn on stranded westerners. Well done, Sleepy Joe
I hope to God I am wrong, of course
Whilst it perhaps too good an opportunity to miss, getting that opportunity to fruition might be difficult. Do you do the big bomb? Do you just machine gun the crap out of people?
And how do you get through the Taliban checkpoints?
The airport is very high value, high publicity but there are other options in the city. A lot of Westerners for instance operate out of what are in effect compounds with their own little eco system.
"Time is running out: Desperate Afghans are killed in the crush as they fight to get into Kabul airport after it emerges UK rescue flights may end in THREE DAYS, while US embassy tells Americans to stay away because of security threats at the gates"
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
The chances of a 9/11 20th anniversary attack must be pretty high I guess. I'll have moved to a sleepy-ish Essex village by then, and my missus gave up working at Stepney Green in June, thank God.
ISIS or AQ can now, also, take their revenge at their leisure on all the westerners stuck inside Afghanistan - if these people don't all get out (which seems hideously possible now)
We've potentially lined up a decade of ISIS torture porn on stranded westerners. Well done, Sleepy Joe
I hope to God I am wrong, of course
If it ends up in a situation anything like that then that's curtains for the Biden presidency after just seven months. Not that this will be any consolation to those suffering because of his ineptitude.
Neither of us have got each other a present, or even a card. We've told each other not to bother. (*)
I'm now wondering if Mrs J has sneakily got me something without telling me. I could go out and get her something, but then I'd appear a git if she hadn't got me anything...
First world problems.
(*) We tend not to get each other anything much for birthdays either, and prefer to buy each other things we need throughout the year instead.
We just had our 8th this week.
Again, we didn't bother. But we did crack open a bottle and watch a movie together whilst snuggled up together on the sofa that evening.
Which is basically all we both wanted: quality time together.
A great idea. And thanks to everyone who replied.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
Was looking for a Corby gag on the basis of "if pressed," but it's too much work.
Sad to note Corby's passing, I have both pressed my trousers in his gadget and crossed the Atlantic in a yacht designed by his son.
They used to be in every hotel room, didn't they, along with the Gideon bible. I must admit I used the latter more.
Why would Labour infantilize this so cringeworthily?
So, so poor, what has become of the world?
Clearly they want to keep the minister in place, because the PM isn’t going to sack him under pressure from that sort of campaign. A bunch of Labour activists furiously retweeting each other has precisely zero effect in the real world.
"Pass it on"
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
I'm puzzled. What's childish about it? It's plain English, both clearer and more concise than alternatives such as 'Forward it to your FB likes' or similar.
I'd say we are so far apart in what we think, it's not worth debating it
Fair enough. It's Saturday afternoon, the wine is open and I've just had some mushroom antipasto on toast.
Claimed sources of rumours of IS planning an attack at the airport.
1. Reportedly French Intelligence 2. Reportedly the Taliban telling people outside the airport
The only solid thing we know is that US has told people trying to go to the airport not to move for the moment due to a potential security threat. That could mean anything in terms of the nature of that threat.
Really powerful video essay from NYTimes on covid and vaccine refusal. In Mountain Home, Ozarks. Only 36% of people have had the jab. Interviews with patients on oxygen who still have doubts about taking the jab. Some are close to death. Most go on about freedom and free choice.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
Australia suffers from significantly higher rates of anti-vaxxer sentiment than the UK (probably driven at least in part by complacency driven by the prior success of their suppression strategy,) coupled with a hopelessly mismanaged vaccination drive. The media and the regulator have worked together to trash the reputation of AZ, which is the only home-manufactured jab and of which they have a lot of stockpiled doses; Pfizer, which people are more likely to accept, is in chronically short supply; and AIUI the vaccination program hasn't focussed solely on working through the most vulnerable groups, either. Quite a lot of the jabs have gone to younger people, on the basis that they're the most likely transmitters in the event of an outbreak that needs to be contained.
The upshot of all this is that less than half of the over 70s have been fully vaccinated, let alone anyone else.
I don't know that much about what's going on in NZ, except that their vaccination rates are purported to be worse than Australia's.
My understanding of the NZ situation is very different, even if they have about the same number fully vaccinated.
Their the problem is supply, vaccination started with people in ports, airports airlines and their family (which is why my sister in Law was vaccinated early) and has then followed the 'prioritise the most venerable' as in most other parts of the would, but will a very slow supply of the vaccine, IIRC they have taken some of the Australian AZ supply's that where not being used and where about to go out of date, but are still behind in fully vaccinated 18% to 20% but little sine of significant Anti-Vaz movement.
I had a long chat with my brother in Auckland this morning and asked him about the slowness of their vaccine rollout. He claimed they have previously allowed their potential supplies to go to other more affected countries, but then he has bought in 100% to the government’s approach. At 70 he has just received his 2nd vaccination, although he said all over-40s are now eligible. Whilst he acknowledges that Zero Covid is unachievable, his wife, a university professor, still believes it is possible. He also denies the tourism industry is suffering as Kiwis are all holidaying at home.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I've been astonished at the authoritarianism in Australia.
No idea where that comes from.
I do.
Australia has long taken a very harsh biosecurity concept at the border. They recognise that their biodiversity is very unique to the rest of the globe and they don't want to see compromised by importing alien diseases and animals.
Their entire mindset on that is completely different to here in the UK.
So, the Argentinian in laws cannot come to my Scotch nephew's wedding because Argentina has a monthly quota on readmission of its citizens, so if they come over in September they can't go home till March.
On the plus side I can stand down my crash course in colloquial Spanish.
That's a shame. The notion of you hastily cobbling together a foreign tongue in order to be able to converse with some guests at a wedding was rather a sweet one.
Claimed sources of rumours of IS planning an attack at the airport.
1. Reportedly French Intelligence 2. Reportedly the Taliban telling people outside the airport
The only solid thing we know is that US has told people trying to go to the airport not to move for the moment due to a potential security threat. That could mean anything in terms of the nature of that threat.
Twitter is also claiming an Israeli intel source for the ISIS rumour. No idea if true, of course
It seems to me highly likely that ISIS jihadis and/or Al Qaeda fighters will attempt some atrocities on westerners in Afghanistan, while they have the chance. It may be that the Taliban leadership don't want this, but how much control do they have over their radical "allies"?
And judging by the photos all of these Islamists are now armed to the teeth with the best Yankee weapons
The Taliban also have a dark sense of humour. They have set up a photoshoot mocking the iconic photo of US soldiers raising the flag at Iwo Jima
So, the Argentinian in laws cannot come to my Scotch nephew's wedding because Argentina has a monthly quota on readmission of its citizens, so if they come over in September they can't go home till March.
On the plus side I can stand down my crash course in colloquial Spanish.
That's a shame. The notion of you hastily cobbling together a foreign tongue in order to be able to converse with some guests at a wedding was rather a sweet one.
It would probably turn out that Argentinians speak Potuguese, anyway. Pero seguiré estudiando español, porque lo disfruto y puede resultar útil.
Gro-Tsen @gro_tsen · Aug 18 This is probably the cause for much of the confusion around this unhelpful term: people imagine that “herd immunity” will make the disease disappear — it won't, it will just stabilize it, and it can stay forever in an endemic state. 13/14
Herd Immunity is when so many people in a population are immune to a disease that any breakouts will be short-lived and won't lead to spread in the community. Therefore the disease does for all practical purposes disappear. We will never reach this with Covid because the combination of vaccine takeup and vaccine efficacy isn't high enough. This is my understanding of current thinking.
I don't think that's true -
(1) Vaccines are going to get better. Don't forget the world is relying on a couple of vaccines that were designed in days at the beginning of the crisis - and there have been a lot of refinements since then. (See GSK+CureVac, Novavax etc.) It's also entirely possible that advances in delivery will make a big difference - because Covid is an infection of the upper respiratory tract, priming the immune system in that particular area could elicit a much quicker reaction, and dramatically lower spread. Initial trials with the AZ vaccine and animals have been extremely encouraging in this area.
(2) For a lot of people Delta will act as a booster shot to their existing vaccine protection. It's very notable that existing Covid infection has proven more than 99% effective at preventing Delta (probably because of the immune system being primed in the right physical location). As a result, vaccinated people getting asymptomatic or mild symptompatic Delta cases effective knock another carrier out of the mix. Even without additional manufactured vaccines, this means that the level of population immunity is growing.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I've been astonished at the authoritarianism in Australia.
No idea where that comes from.
I do.
Australia has long taken a very harsh biosecurity concept at the border. They recognise that their biodiversity is very unique to the rest of the globe and they don't want to see compromised by importing alien diseases and animals.
Their entire mindset on that is completely different to here in the UK.
Indeed, this mindset is so strong that they are the only country where the first meaning of the term 'biosecurity' is security of its ecosystems and native species. In the rest of the world, its primarily meaning is security against the misuse of biology to harm humans, with only a secondary meaning in agriculture to mean security of the herd/flock (and, to an even lesser extent, plant) of economically important species.
On New Zealand and Australia, I'm not sure we're in a position to be quite so critical. According to Worldometers:
New Zealand: 26 deaths, 5 per million population. Australia: 975 deaths, 38 per million population. UK: 131,487 deaths, 1,925 per million population.
Looks to me like their strategy has worked somewhat better than ours (and most others) thus far. Yes, their figures are likely to get (much) worse, but I doubt that they'll get anywhere near our death rate (per million). By playing for time they should be able to benefit more from vaccines and treatment.
They've kept the numbers so low by shutting down their societies for long periods of time.
If only New Zealand had fused its Covid suppression scheme with something akin to the UK Government's vaccine procurement strategy, then it would've been a complete triumph. As it is, they didn't so they're in a right pickle.
I haven't heard an explanation as the why vaccine uptake in NZ and AUS is so remarkably low...??
I've been astonished at the authoritarianism in Australia.
No idea where that comes from.
I do.
Australia has long taken a very harsh biosecurity concept at the border. They recognise that their biodiversity is very unique to the rest of the globe and they don't want to see compromised by importing alien diseases and animals.
Their entire mindset on that is completely different to here in the UK.
It is. Spaniels sniffing our luggage on arrival for forbidden food such as fruit. Being made to unpack and show my walking boots when the chap realised I came from sheep country in Scotland - just as well I knew and had scrubbed them free of every last trace of the usual mud and sharn.
Comments
No idea where that comes from.
Just imagine the trauma for gamblers if you had bought Conservative seats.
Is why I don't go all in on Cannuck elections.
Here they are in no order
1. Non lab natural zoonosis. ie nothing to do with the lab, just a simple jump from an animal to a human in a market, or a home, or a shop, or a farm. Best evidence for this is precedent
2. Natural zoonosis BUT INSIDE, OR VITALLY CONNECTED TO the lab. This would be, say, a lab worker getting bitten by a bat in a Yunnan mine (we know the WIV went to Yunnanese mines to gather bats) and bringing the infection home to Wuhan. Or the bite happened in the lab in Wuhan, or a bat peed on a secretary, or a test tube full of natural virus was spilled in a BSL2 in Wuhan, a worker got infected, went to the market, et voila. This is probably the thesis supported by WHO right now
3. A virus was engineered to be more virulent, over time, inside the lab - ie nastier for humans and more infectious. "Gain of function". This was done so they could anticipate horrible new zoonotic viruses and have vaccines ready. Maybe universal vaccines. It was injected into, say, "humanised mice" - we know the WIV was also doing this. One of the mice bit a worker, he or she got infected with this especially nasty new engineered coronavirus, they went to the market.... et voila, again
4. The Chinese developed a specially nasty virus for reasons given above, but also because the Chinese military is investigating special new viral bioweapons (we know this is true, we also know the Chinese military has strong links with WIV). Someone, however high or low, then deliberately released this engineered bioweapon on the world, perhaps to fuck the world up, and test the new weapons
These are four very distinct hypotheses
In order of likelihood I'd have them like this, with the likeliest at the top
3
2
1
4
(it is close between 3 and 2)
Just ignore him, everyone else does. Let him howl into the wind.
I am Dyslectics and some mistakes always get though, but I do normally make an effort for limit that, in this cases time did not allow me to properly check I am sorry.
However I stand by my prediction, cases in England:
Today: 26,982
last Saturday: 26700
So a 1.01% increases Week on week, looks like its toping out.
(15-19 age group still rising fast thought! so maybe not)
Having just returned from serene, sunny, near tourist-free Athens, London is mayhem. The Tubes are crowded (about 40% mask wearing) the streets in the West End are busy (hooray!) and Camden is absolutely jammed (despite crap weather). It's like a particularly bustling Saturday in the summer PRE-pandemic
This is great. London is throbbing with life. But also, eeek
I would not have believed it if I had not seen it
Edit - Have I also mentioned Mike's holiday begins next weekend?
I really do not notice it and you do very well
On the substance, I am disappointed that we have not already come down from the peak of new cases, but am happy that they are not rising out of control. Like you, I expect cases to fall soon - but then I expected them to already be falling. This disease continues to confound.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/aug/20/david-squires-on-desmond-swaynes-comments-on-afghans-fleeing-the-taliban-cartoon
It may disturb some of you.
Their the problem is supply, vaccination started with people in ports, airports airlines and their family (which is why my sister in Law was vaccinated early) and has then followed the 'prioritise the most venerable' as in most other parts of the would, but will a very slow supply of the vaccine, IIRC they have taken some of the Australian AZ supply's that where not being used and where about to go out of date, but are still behind in fully vaccinated 18% to 20% but little sine of significant Anti-Vaz movement.
Fair enough they want him sacked, so as to cause the govt embarrassment, but using that childish phrase when the matter concerned is war is such a bad call, in my opinion.
I am off to open my wedding anniversary present early to relieve the tension meanwhile.
Most years we've dropped our little 'un off at relatives at the nearest weekend to the anniversary and gone away for a couple of nights. Nothing posh: Chester, York: a nice hotel and somewhere to explore. We couldn't do it last year, and Mrs J's still worried about the virus, so we haven't done it this year.
I bought Mrs J some jeans she wanted a few weeks back, so that'll do as a present, if pressed.
Romance? What's that?
First ten balls: 2 runs, 3 wickets.
What a start!
"JUST IN - ISIS operating at #Kabul airport according to unconfirmed French intelligence as reported by @suddafchaudry. Pentagon's Kirby: “We’re not going to get into specific details about the threat environment.”"
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1429102937050075140?s=20
Regardless of take up and efficacy, we will still reach herd immunity at some point in the way we do with the flu - herd immunity will be reached against particular strains through a combination of vaccination and disease. But new strains that evade that herd immunity arise in the case of the flu. Fortunately, COVID is not as able to completely change its immunogenicity in the same manner as the flu can, so while new strains partially evade vaccines, or can reinfect those who've previously been exposed, when new strains emerge, it is not going back to an R naught situation.
Incredibly, only 50% of the staff at the local hospital have had the jab!
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/opinion/arkansas-vaccine-hesitant.html
On the plus side I can stand down my crash course in colloquial Spanish.
So yes, Covid is here to stay, but will not be the huge issue it has been up to now.
Take a look around. U.K. is mostly back to normal, and we are coping. I’m sure it’s tough for some, the hospitals have pressure, but to be honest, when don’t they?
Careers will end, labs will close, journals will shut, funding will cease. If it gets really bad, there could be trials and jails.
it would be particularly apocalyptic for Virology, and that is where you find the most hysterical, desperate attempts to shut down the Lab Leak Hypothesis
But that's enough peeking.
Sad to note Corby's passing, I have both pressed my trousers in his gadget and crossed the Atlantic in a yacht designed by his son.
Be warned
https://twitter.com/RespectIsVital/status/1429088172626137088?s=20
https://twitter.com/RespectIsVital/status/1429052276086386688?s=20
108 needed from next 64 balls.
Not exactly a close game this one. 😲😂🏏
About as likely as Labour winning a majority at the next election though.
1. They’re going to get it at some point, so might as well have some form of immunity to it
2. The hospital will become the focus point of outbreaks, and people who come in because of a minor accident will go home with Covid for their troubles.
Independence Not Proven
Was it a low level employee who got bitten by a bat/mouse/etc because they weren’t following protocols, and to avoid getting into trouble, told no one?
Or was there a failure of a containment system that resulted in 1,000 virtues being vented into the air? And where the lab director knew from day one.
The vaccinated are still considerably less likely to both catch it and to pass it on.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9914613/Desperate-Afghans-crushed-death-chaos-Kabul-airport.html
People are dying every hour now in the horrific crush at the airport. Women and kids mainly. They can't get everyone out and they can't force the Taliban to make things "better". The chaos suits the Taliban as it makes the West, especially the USA, look evermore useless and cruel
Meanwhile there are strong rumours of ISIS heading for the airport, as they would. They've been released from Afghan jails in numbers, they want revenge on America. The Taliban might hold back, ISIS will not, nor will Al Qaeda
All this points to the evacuation being abandoned in a few days, which means many many thousands of legit evacuees - probably including UK, US, EU passport holders, etc - will then be trapped in Afghanistan. Hostages to be used and abused. The alternative is surely a massive surge of new western troops, but Biden won't do that
It is difficult to see how this could have been managed any more ineptly, we have ended up with the worst outcome possible
But on the lingo, is that a state of Herd Immunity? My layman's understanding is no it isn't. It's something short of it. If we have Herd Immunity to a disease it means it can't get going (either in mild or serious form) anywhere for very long. It might break out here and there, in a few individuals, but will be rapidly quashed since it won't have anywhere to go.
And with Covid, as I understand the current thinking, this isn't a realistic goal. We won't be achieving Herd Immunity (and hence the effective disappearance of the virus) in the foreseable future. But we will be achieving the background endemic situation you describe.
We've potentially lined up a decade of ISIS torture porn on stranded westerners. Well done, Sleepy Joe
I hope to God I am wrong, of course
Gro-Tsen
@gro_tsen
·
Aug 18
As I've pointed out a number of times, there is a terribly confusing ambiguity as to what the phrase “herd immunity” (or its synonyms, e.g., “collective immunity”) means. In the SIR model it's the point where R becomes ≤1. But in real life?
I think, Bidan has some responsibility for the low Vax rate in the US.
And I only mean some, ultimately it is the individual who is responsible for there actions, and choses, and we should never gloss over that.
But back at the start of the year, the US vaccination role out was going well, in terms of 'vaccines given' TRUMP is bad for lots of reasons but the early vaccine plan in the US was not one of them, not the best, that was Israile, or the second best in the developing would that was the UK, but better than there Canada, or the EU or Aus and NZ or Japan and S Korea, overall apart for Israel the UK and half a dozen very rich small nations, it was great.
However, Bidan decided to 'trash talk' the 'vaccine plan' and tolled everybody who would listed, how he was going to 'fix it' 'make it better', how a he Bidan a Democrat who 'believed in science' would be a world beater with the vaccine.
believe it of not, there are a lot of US folk who passionately dislike Bidan, it may be unfair but its accurate, not all of theses people were Anti Vax, or anti science, but just did not want to give Bidna 'a win' where not interested in doing something that he would take credit for. and if you are young and heathy, and cases are fulling then it must have seemed an easy thing to just not do. ones you then get criticised and vilified for a chose you make, in many cases it hardens people in their position more than it changes it. and I've seen much more criticism of Unvaccinated than attempts at reasoning.
I'm not a fan of a lot of Obamas policies, but that's different form opinions on the man, and he as stated that he declined to be the public face of some issues and campaigns, because he know that would backfire with a big section of society, I think he was right, and even if I disagreed with some of the campaigns, I have more respect for him for his chose.
And for the avoion of doubt, can I reiterate, responsibility for an individuals chose is primarily the individual nobody else not even Biden. Just Bidan has not helped.
And how do you get through the Taliban checkpoints?
The airport is very high value, high publicity but there are other options in the city. A lot of Westerners for instance operate out of what are in effect compounds with their own little eco system.
https://twitter.com/hyperplanes/status/1428864144128741383?s=19
1. Reportedly French Intelligence
2. Reportedly the Taliban telling people outside the airport
The only solid thing we know is that US has told people trying to go to the airport not to move for the moment due to a potential security threat. That could mean anything in terms of the nature of that threat.
The freedom to take the consequences.
64/9 after 88 balls. 58 needed from 12 with 1 wicket.
Australia has long taken a very harsh biosecurity concept at the border. They recognise that their biodiversity is very unique to the rest of the globe and they don't want to see compromised by importing alien diseases and animals.
Their entire mindset on that is completely different to here in the UK.
It seems to me highly likely that ISIS jihadis and/or Al Qaeda fighters will attempt some atrocities on westerners in Afghanistan, while they have the chance. It may be that the Taliban leadership don't want this, but how much control do they have over their radical "allies"?
And judging by the photos all of these Islamists are now armed to the teeth with the best Yankee weapons
The Taliban also have a dark sense of humour. They have set up a photoshoot mocking the iconic photo of US soldiers raising the flag at Iwo Jima
https://twitter.com/PCurran58/status/1429117404290764808?s=20
(1) Vaccines are going to get better. Don't forget the world is relying on a couple of vaccines that were designed in days at the beginning of the crisis - and there have been a lot of refinements since then. (See GSK+CureVac, Novavax etc.) It's also entirely possible that advances in delivery will make a big difference - because Covid is an infection of the upper respiratory tract, priming the immune system in that particular area could elicit a much quicker reaction, and dramatically lower spread. Initial trials with the AZ vaccine and animals have been extremely encouraging in this area.
(2) For a lot of people Delta will act as a booster shot to their existing vaccine protection. It's very notable that existing Covid infection has proven more than 99% effective at preventing Delta (probably because of the immune system being primed in the right physical location). As a result, vaccinated people getting asymptomatic or mild symptompatic Delta cases effective knock another carrier out of the mix. Even without additional manufactured vaccines, this means that the level of population immunity is growing.