The twitter feed of the United States Embassy in Kabul is quite something to read. Just a few weeks ago they were posting tweets about subjects that had almost nothing to do with Afghanistan. A lot of the posts just seem incredibly naive and deluded given what's happened in the last few days.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
The City was bad in my day too. The sexism was what I noticed most. I would hope that the sort of stuff that was routine then wouldn't be tolerated now.
"Oh fuck, that's wrong, gonna call Seddlements."
Fiona picks up. "Yep."
"Hey juicytits, can you be an angel and cancel a trade for me."
"I can cancel something, Darren, yes. Be delighted to."
She hangs up and calls HR.
I had a job in the City in the mid-90s. There were 6 men and two women on a trading/analysis desk at a large investment bank. I don't remember a single sexist comment all the time I was there, either by the standards of the time or by today's incredibly sensitive standards. But maybe I was just using the bathroom or doing the photocopying every time they were made.
Yep, about that period. So either you dropped into a bubble of woke - ahead of its time - or something about your presence deterred any nonsense. Either way being terrific news.
By far the best poll for the Union in a while but still a slide compared to the SPD (8% lead compared to 13%.
This pollster tends to produce results that are out of line with the other 6 or 7 firms doing German surveys. Doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong of course.
Although the thought of Dominic Raab as NATO SecGen in the new future fills me with dread.
It was an odd quirk, designed solely to keep editors on their toes, that he was known either as Peter Carington (one 'r') or Lord Carrington (two 'r's) or, subsequently, Baron Carington (1 'r').
The one that gets me is Dumbarton being in Dunbartonshire
On a parochial level, Bramall Hall is in Bramhall Park (south of Stockport). I don't know why this is, either. Possibly just the sheer bloody-mindedness of the aristocracy.
I'm currently on a break in the city where Constantine the Great became emperor.
That's a proper holiday in a place replete with history.
York
Magnificent city.
You can shove the Parthenon up your bum because it is rubbish compared to the Jorvik Viking Centre.
I believe the Jorvik Viking Centre smells like it's been shoved up someone's bum, or have they stopped doing the authentic smell of berserker poo thing?
I keep thinking of my old Nan, who dealt with six years of World War, while not seeing her husband for years as he fought the Japanese in Burma, and had entire chunks of her neighbourhood laid low by the Blitz. I keep thinking what she would say about modern generations being unable to have five months of lockdown.
I keep thinking of my great ^ 750 grandmother, hadn’t seen her husband for months since he went hunting and that snow storm started. She was running low on supplies but learnt to do all sorts of wonderful things with elk spam.
Pretty facile to compare the travails of those in the past with today innit.
Not really. We should appreciate what we have and put difficulties in context. Especially when we are using these difficulties to justify policies that will cause more people to die.
My mum has experienced both and days she would infinitely rather live through the war again than another bout of lockdown. Extraordinary how unhelpful banal familial anecdotes can be.
Is there a reason we are speculating about a winter lockdown btw? How I have things atm is that there's little chance of this. We've transitioned to 'live with it' now and this is for keeps unless something crashes in from left field re the nature of the virus.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
The City was bad in my day too. The sexism was what I noticed most. I would hope that the sort of stuff that was routine then wouldn't be tolerated now.
"Oh fuck, that's wrong, gonna call Seddlements."
Fiona picks up. "Yep."
"Hey juicytits, can you be an angel and cancel a trade for me."
"I can cancel something, Darren, yes. Be delighted to."
She hangs up and calls HR.
I had a job in the City in the mid-90s. There were 6 men and two women on a trading/analysis desk at a large investment bank. I don't remember a single sexist comment all the time I was there, either by the standards of the time or by today's incredibly sensitive standards. But maybe I was just using the bathroom or doing the photocopying every time they were made.
Yep, about that period. So either you dropped into a bubble of woke - ahead of its time - or something about your presence deterred any nonsense. Either way being terrific news.
A lot of things have been the equivalent of Woke for a very long time. For example, BBC TV and radio presentation/continuity have been at present day levels of Wokeness since about 1990. (Not making a partisan point, just an observation).
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
The graph is looking increasingly like a steady rise from mid-June, overlaid by a big football-related spike. Increasing freedom and activity being countered almost exactly by increasing numbers vaccinated and/or infected. R therefore holding steady at just over 1.
Which I'm struggling to believe, frankly. The Euros maybe had an impact, but surely not THAT big an impact. Still, that's what it looks like.
Yep - it really does look like that. At least with 'fully open' we are not seeing a huge rise in cases. (That might come at September school testing restart...)
Although the thought of Dominic Raab as NATO SecGen in the new future fills me with dread.
It was an odd quirk, designed solely to keep editors on their toes, that he was known either as Peter Carington (one 'r') or Lord Carrington (two 'r's) or, subsequently, Baron Carington (1 'r').
The one that gets me is Dumbarton being in Dunbartonshire
On a parochial level, Bramall Hall is in Bramhall Park (south of Stockport). I don't know why this is, either. Possibly just the sheer bloody-mindedness of the aristocracy.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
The twitter feed of the United States Embassy in Kabul is quite something to read. Just a few weeks ago they were posting tweets about subjects that had almost nothing to do with Afghanistan. A lot of the posts just seem incredibly naive and deluded given what's happened in the last few days.
If I was working in the embassy in Kabul I'd be daydreaming about other things too.
I read our ambassador to took up post in June, talk about a hospital pass.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
Which one ?
I've just been having a version of this debate with my family.
If we have to flee the UK to avoid another winter lockdown (and some members of my fam are equally mutinous at the prospect) where the hell would you go?
My immediate instinct would be Thailand, for the winter, But not this winter. Likewise Australia, my other go to place. Which leaves, where?
America, no. Europe will be locked down, if we are
I'm currently on a break in the city where Constantine the Great became emperor.
That's a proper holiday in a place replete with history.
York
Magnificent city.
You can shove the Parthenon up your bum because it is rubbish compared to the Jorvik Viking Centre.
I believe the Jorvik Viking Centre smells like it's been shoved up someone's bum, or have they stopped doing the authentic smell of berserker poo thing?
They still have that.
You can see the man shitting on the shit hole as well.
That smell is seared on my brain.
You really do get up close and personal on the ride.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
By far the best poll for the Union in a while but still a slide compared to the SPD (8% lead compared to 13%.
This pollster tends to produce results that are out of line with the other 6 or 7 firms doing German surveys. Doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong of course.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
He must be up for a prize as possibly the most useless MP of modern times. The public were very understanding to not punish his party in the seat.
And he sought to use his disability to excuse his inability or unwillingness to do the job.
Useless is a very generous description...nasty piece of work by accounts of a number of members of the public whose experiences with him more than matched his twattering history.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
He must be up for a prize as possibly the most useless MP of modern times. The public were very understanding to not punish his party in the seat.
And he sought to use his disability to excuse his inability or unwillingness to do the job.
The theory round these parts (from the moment he became MP) was that
1) Labour never expected to win the seat or so just put up a paper candidate. Remember in April 2017 given the poll leads it was more likely the Tories took the seat from the LDs than Labour.
2) He never expected to be an MP, see 1)
3) He's the first generation to have social media posts as teenagers/young adults to haunt them.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
He must be up for a prize as possibly the most useless MP of modern times. The public were very understanding to not punish his party in the seat.
And he sought to use his disability to excuse his inability or unwillingness to do the job.
Useless is a very generous description...nasty piece of work by accounts of a number of members of the public whose experiences with him more than matched his twattering history.
Useless and horrible, I'm happy to amend.
Even rushed for 2017 how the heck did he persuade the local party to select him? He seems to have been lazy, nasty and an idiot (and now add possible criminal), and even local parties can usually pick someone who is only 2 of those.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Yes. And one would expect that Delta is going to act as a Booster shot to lots of vaccinated Brits. So, if R is 1.1 now, then so long as the doubling time is sufficiently elevated, and so long as the vaccines continue to be highly effective at preventing serious infection, then it will be OK.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
He must be up for a prize as possibly the most useless MP of modern times. The public were very understanding to not punish his party in the seat.
And he sought to use his disability to excuse his inability or unwillingness to do the job.
The theory round these parts (from the moment he became MP) was that
1) Labour never expected to win the seat or so just put up a paper candidate. Remember in April 2017 given the poll leads it was more likely the Tories took the seat from the LDs than Labour.
2) He never expected to be an MP, see 1)
3) He's the first generation to have social media posts as teenagers/young adults to haunt them.
Sure, but even paper candidates should meet a base standard.
3 I'll grant, but he seems to have been haunted more by how he acted now, not historically.
The graph is looking increasingly like a steady rise from mid-June, overlaid by a big football-related spike. Increasing freedom and activity being countered almost exactly by increasing numbers vaccinated and/or infected. R therefore holding steady at just over 1.
Which I'm struggling to believe, frankly. The Euros maybe had an impact, but surely not THAT big an impact. Still, that's what it looks like.
The first rule of analysising covid numbers is that Alistair is always right.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
Which one ?
I've just been having a version of this debate with my family.
If we have to flee the UK to avoid another winter lockdown (and some members of my fam are equally mutinous at the prospect) where the hell would you go?
My immediate instinct would be Thailand, for the winter, But not this winter. Likewise Australia, my other go to place. Which leaves, where?
America, no. Europe will be locked down, if we are
Fascinating. Tho completely ridiculous, at the same time
“It’s all male, male, male. It’s a theater of horror filled with abrasive male animals ready to attack,” Zimmermann says. “It represents a staunch, conservative, male-dominated hunter-gatherer culture.” In this telling, there’s a reason there are no signs of domesticated grains or tools typical of the Neolithic period at Göbekli Tepe—according to Zimmermann and Clare, they were forbidden."
lol. that's about as mad as claiming it is a "Temple in Eden" which I believe some fanciful writers have done, in the past
The genius of Gobekli Tepe is that we will never know. No one knows. It's so far back it is beyond our comprehension and there will be no scientific proof of what it was "for", and it is so outside our understanding, your theory - or mine - is as valid as any archaeologist's.
What a place. If you ever get the chance, go. I was so lucky to see it when I did. Just me and Klaus Schmidt and a couple of dozen excavating students. No tourists. A few Kurdish villagers, No one knew about it, back then. We wandered around the pillars. Took tea by the megaliths. Amazing
The other aspect was that in 2015 Labour threw the kitchen sink and then some at trying to defeat Nick Clegg, if they couldn't beat him when he was Deputy PM as part of a Vichy collaborator government then they were unlikely to beat him in 2017 when he was a opposition backbench MP.
The graph is looking increasingly like a steady rise from mid-June, overlaid by a big football-related spike. Increasing freedom and activity being countered almost exactly by increasing numbers vaccinated and/or infected. R therefore holding steady at just over 1.
Which I'm struggling to believe, frankly. The Euros maybe had an impact, but surely not THAT big an impact. Still, that's what it looks like.
The first rule of analysising covid numbers is that Alistair is always right.
Unusually, in this case you are wrong, for the reasons @Philip_Thompson explains.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Yes. And one would expect that Delta is going to act as a Booster shot to lots of vaccinated Brits. So, if R is 1.1 now, then so long as the doubling time is sufficiently elevated, and so long as the vaccines continue to be highly effective at preventing serious infection, then it will be OK.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
The latest numbers from PHE also indicate the vaccination programme has directly averted more than 82,100 hospital admissions - up from a previous estimate of more than 66,900. Between 23.6 million and 24.4 million infections are estimated to have prevented - up from between 22.9 million and 23.8 million.
That seems an incredible number...I know the delta variant is much more transmissible than kent, but without vaccinations, they are effectively saying the majority of population having had COVID by now.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Sorry did anybody of any consequence, in America or the rest of the West, object to us getting out of Afghanistan. Anybody?
US fighter jets are flying over Kabul to ensure security
Horse....... stable door....... comes to mind!
Probably their role is to supress and decoy SAM pot-shots at the military airlift. There are rather a lot of SAM's floating about there, and plenty of nutters.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
It shows where the politics is, I guess. If Biden had shelved the Trump deal, decided to stick with the Afghan involvement, he would have been in for grief from 2 influential groups, the MAGA right and his Dem left flank. Would he have got sufficient credit from sufficient others to compensate? Not sure he would. So the calculus steered heavily to Out. Of course this doesn't explain the botch.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Ummm: I thought pretty much the only obligation on the Taliban was that they wouldn't use Afghanistan to host groups that would attack America.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Yes. And one would expect that Delta is going to act as a Booster shot to lots of vaccinated Brits. So, if R is 1.1 now, then so long as the doubling time is sufficiently elevated, and so long as the vaccines continue to be highly effective at preventing serious infection, then it will be OK.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
I know quite a few people who have had Delta boosters. Really random how it impacts though. I know of several families who got it.
Family 1 Mother (double-jabbed) and 2 kids got it. All of them were knocked for 6 and in bed with bad tiredness but were fine after a few days. The Dad (double jabbed) and other child didn't even get it.
Family 2 2 children got it (out of 3) both with fairly mild symptoms. Both double-jabbed parents avoided getting it along with the youngest child.
Family 3 Teenager daughter got Covid in last week of school. Did not give to either parent (double-jabbed with Moderna) or their 12yo brother.
Also my 3 kids came into close contact with the kids of Family 2 on the day they were diagnosed with Covid. None of mine (ages 3 to 12) got anything and we tested daily for the week after the contact.
I'd really like to understand why some close contacts of Delta get it and some don't. It seems to be quite random but it can't be.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
The City was bad in my day too. The sexism was what I noticed most. I would hope that the sort of stuff that was routine then wouldn't be tolerated now.
"Oh fuck, that's wrong, gonna call Seddlements."
Fiona picks up. "Yep."
"Hey juicytits, can you be an angel and cancel a trade for me."
"I can cancel something, Darren, yes. Be delighted to."
She hangs up and calls HR.
I had a job in the City in the mid-90s. There were 6 men and two women on a trading/analysis desk at a large investment bank. I don't remember a single sexist comment all the time I was there, either by the standards of the time or by today's incredibly sensitive standards. But maybe I was just using the bathroom or doing the photocopying every time they were made.
Yep, about that period. So either you dropped into a bubble of woke - ahead of its time - or something about your presence deterred any nonsense. Either way being terrific news.
Hm. I think one of the reasons I am so averse to woke is that I have so, so rarely come across situations in which woke might be called for. In my whole adult life, I can count on the fingers of one hand people like the above who have treated women and/or minorities like that. It's not that I'm blind to it - on the few occasions in which I've seen it it's grated horribly. But I just don't see this ocean of racism and sexism which woke is supposed to solve. Perhaps it is because I only hang around with nice people.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Sure, they could, but to what to end? The options facing Biden were stay for many more years or withdraw at some point, knowing it could end up like this. From a political point of view better to get it out of the way early in the electoral cycle, and to credibly share the blame with Trump.
If he had dismantled Trumps deal, signed a new one, and the same thing happened in 2023 instead of 2021 it would be terminal for the Democrats. If he wanted to stay forever against public opinion it was probably do-able but would have been done so half heartedly it would not have left Afghanistan in any better place.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
It shows where the politics is, I guess. If Biden had shelved the Trump deal, decided to stick with the Afghan involvement, he would have been in for grief from 2 influential groups, the MAGA right and his Dem left flank. Would he have got sufficient credit from sufficient others to compensate? Not sure he would. So the calculus steered heavily to Out. Of course this doesn't explain the botch.
There is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Biden was ever anything but completely on board with getting out of Afghanistan.
No serious politician in the US was, or is. The last remaining neo-cons like Liz Cheney face the fights of their lives to even be considered as repubs for 2022.
Latest daily figure for England-only Covid hospital admissions is 832. Not great...
Given that it’s been acknowledged that a significant number (50%?) of “Covid” hospital admissions are not in fact due to Covid, isn’t rising hospital admissions at least in part clearly linked to rising positive tests? So it’s a link between cases and hospitalisation, but not in a negative way.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Ummm: I thought pretty much the only obligation on the Taliban was that they wouldn't use Afghanistan to host groups that would attack America.
The deal is a quite astonishing document really. The fact that the US signed it without involving the Afghan government is probably the most astonishing thing about it. It was at that point I suspect that a lot of Afghans decided that there was little point fighting since the US had effectively admitted the Taliban were the only players who counted. Entirely rational really on the Afghans' part.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Sure, they could, but to what to end? The options facing Biden were stay for many more years or withdraw at some point, knowing it could end up like this. From a political point of view better to get it out of the way early in the electoral cycle, and to credibly share the blame with Trump.
If he had dismantled Trumps deal, signed a new one, and the same thing happened in 2023 instead of 2021 it would be terminal for the Democrats. If he wanted to stay forever against public opinion it was probably do-able but would have been done so half heartedly it would not have left Afghanistan in any better place.
This was undoubtedly a hospital pass from Trump. (I'm not saying it was a deliberate one - I'm sure TRump thought this the right thing to do for its own sake). Possibly the biggest disaster of the Trump presidency. But Biden could have dealt with it, and has utterly failed to do so. Our enemies have been emboldened.
The graph is looking increasingly like a steady rise from mid-June, overlaid by a big football-related spike. Increasing freedom and activity being countered almost exactly by increasing numbers vaccinated and/or infected. R therefore holding steady at just over 1.
Which I'm struggling to believe, frankly. The Euros maybe had an impact, but surely not THAT big an impact. Still, that's what it looks like.
The first rule of analysising covid numbers is that Alistair is always right.
I think your slow rising curve with superimposed football spike models the current situation well.
I note that only 25% of our current covid inpatients are over 70, many with non-covid primary diagnoses (fractures for example) so I don't see that vaccines wearing off is a big issue, at least yet, in terms of risk of severe disease.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
It shows where the politics is, I guess. If Biden had shelved the Trump deal, decided to stick with the Afghan involvement, he would have been in for grief from 2 influential groups, the MAGA right and his Dem left flank. Would he have got sufficient credit from sufficient others to compensate? Not sure he would. So the calculus steered heavily to Out. Of course this doesn't explain the botch.
There is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Biden was ever anything but completely on board with getting out of Afghanistan.
No serious politician in the US was, or is. The last remaining neo-cons like Liz Cheney face the fights of their lives to even be considered as repubs for 2022.
Don;t tell me you support them.
No, I think it was right to get out. And I now think it was wrong to go in post 9/11. And, yes, that's right about Biden. He has a history of skepticism about US military activism in the Middle East. So maybe my point about it being driven mainly by the domestic political angle is wrong. Maybe he simply thought it the right thing to do. A conviction politician in this regard.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Ummm: I thought pretty much the only obligation on the Taliban was that they wouldn't use Afghanistan to host groups that would attack America.
I think they were also meant to negotiate with the Afghan government. But, you're right, it's a quite extraordinary agreement,
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Ummm: I thought pretty much the only obligation on the Taliban was that they wouldn't use Afghanistan to host groups that would attack America.
The deal is a quite astonishing document really. The fact that the US signed it without involving the Afghan government is probably the most astonishing thing about it. It was at that point I suspect that a lot of Afghans decided that there was little point fighting since the US had effectively admitted the Taliban were the only players who counted. Entirely rational really on the Afghans' part.
Joe Biden wasn't astonished though Cyclefree.
he told the press a month ago the Afghan government could hold out for a year or more under the terms of the deal. Trump's deal.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
The extraordinary thing is that there was no real pushback from those now complaining most vociferously, either. It was welcomed by our current Defence Minister, and Tom Tugendhat doesn't seem to have had much to say about it at the time.
It may well be that no one can occupy Afghanistan, not even the Taliban. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the civil war continuing. There are simply too many armed factions for it not to do so
I agree. Even leaving aside external actors who want to undermine the new government I'd be very surprised if the Taliban can establish and maintain a stable regime. Warlords, urban youth and a failing economy.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
Or they could have just pointed out that the Taliban hadn't met their obligations, and that any case the agreement was total nonsense because it required the Afghan government (not a signatory!) to do things it quite reasonably wasn't going to do.
Ummm: I thought pretty much the only obligation on the Taliban was that they wouldn't use Afghanistan to host groups that would attack America.
The deal is a quite astonishing document really. The fact that the US signed it without involving the Afghan government is probably the most astonishing thing about it. It was at that point I suspect that a lot of Afghans decided that there was little point fighting since the US had effectively admitted the Taliban were the only players who counted. Entirely rational really on the Afghans' part.
Joe Biden wasn't astonished though Cyclefree.
he told the press a month ago the Afghan government could hold out for a year or more under the terms of the deal. Trump's deal.
Which is what the US intelligence agencies believed.
On topic: One point which may have been missed is that sacking Raab would be a clear admission that the government was asleep on the job and that Starmer was right to lay into Boris on the issue. So it ain't gonna happen, not for some while anyway.
Its Silly Season and it doesn't get much Sillier than to be suggesting the UK could or should have unilaterally continued the two-decades old war past the point that Biden pulled the plug, without any NATO partners interested in doing so.
I think May is a tosser and only dipped in and out the debate. But… I don’t think that’s what she and others were suggesting is it? More that there may have been time to build a coalition but that the government didn’t bother asking until it was far too late. Too late even to avert the catastrofuck exit thats unfolding, with thousands of international citizens stranded outside of easy reach of western military assistance.
I don't think there was remotely time to build a coalition for two very good reasons.
After twenty years not a single nation was interested in being in such a coalition.
Biden made this decision unilaterally, without consulting with his partners, removing the option to make planning decisions before it was too late.
Any chance of averting a catastrophic exit would have required Biden to pick up a phone to his partners who had troops in the region before he made the decision, not after it, but even then it probably wasn't possible.
I think the problem was the Biden was scared that if he didn't withdraw from Afghanistan on time, he would face enormous criticism from Trump and American Right.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
It shows where the politics is, I guess. If Biden had shelved the Trump deal, decided to stick with the Afghan involvement, he would have been in for grief from 2 influential groups, the MAGA right and his Dem left flank. Would he have got sufficient credit from sufficient others to compensate? Not sure he would. So the calculus steered heavily to Out. Of course this doesn't explain the botch.
There is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Biden was ever anything but completely on board with getting out of Afghanistan.
No serious politician in the US was, or is. The last remaining neo-cons like Liz Cheney face the fights of their lives to even be considered as repubs for 2022.
Don;t tell me you support them.
Actually given the latest poll showed 58% of Republican voters now oppose the withdrawal from Afghanistan (compared to 69% of Democrats who supported the withdrawal) then if anything the Republican party is moving back in Cheney's direction https://morningconsult.com/2021/08/16/afghanistan-withdrawal-taliban-polling/
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Yes. And one would expect that Delta is going to act as a Booster shot to lots of vaccinated Brits. So, if R is 1.1 now, then so long as the doubling time is sufficiently elevated, and so long as the vaccines continue to be highly effective at preventing serious infection, then it will be OK.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
Yes, we're looking at around 7-9m people entering the immunity funnel in the next 6-8 weeks and from mid September booster shots for groups 1-6 and then 7-10 in November and early December. That means 49m people will be at little to no risk of getting severe symptoms. The hospital funnel at that point will have just 2.5m potential victims of which we know around 10% will end up going. That's an all time figure for vaccinated people with what feels like an evolutionary cul-de-sac for the virus given how transmissible Delta is.
What I do wonder is when we'll extend vaccines down to 8+ once Pfizer and Moderna get approval next month. It feels like that will be the true end of it.
What's also been interesting is that in advance of 16/17 year olds being made eligible there's still been an uptick in first doses. We've gone from barely more than 150k per week to almost 300k per week and now we're adding a new cohort from Monday. That's surprising and it is definitely coming from the younger cohorts who were at below 60% and are now above 70% with that slow trickle.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
The City was bad in my day too. The sexism was what I noticed most. I would hope that the sort of stuff that was routine then wouldn't be tolerated now.
"Oh fuck, that's wrong, gonna call Seddlements."
Fiona picks up. "Yep."
"Hey juicytits, can you be an angel and cancel a trade for me."
"I can cancel something, Darren, yes. Be delighted to."
She hangs up and calls HR.
I had a job in the City in the mid-90s. There were 6 men and two women on a trading/analysis desk at a large investment bank. I don't remember a single sexist comment all the time I was there, either by the standards of the time or by today's incredibly sensitive standards. But maybe I was just using the bathroom or doing the photocopying every time they were made.
Yep, about that period. So either you dropped into a bubble of woke - ahead of its time - or something about your presence deterred any nonsense. Either way being terrific news.
Hm. I think one of the reasons I am so averse to woke is that I have so, so rarely come across situations in which woke might be called for. In my whole adult life, I can count on the fingers of one hand people like the above who have treated women and/or minorities like that. It's not that I'm blind to it - on the few occasions in which I've seen it it's grated horribly. But I just don't see this ocean of racism and sexism which woke is supposed to solve. Perhaps it is because I only hang around with nice people.
Try spending your adult life as a wheelchair user (or equally, I suspect, any other attribute that has historically been the butt of racist, sexist, or homophobic discrimination).
The level of open bigotry, abuse and discrimination is much less than it used to be I grant you. But that has been achieved precisely because of concerted campaigns against such behaviour by people who care. Such campaigns were previously labelled Political Correctness Gone Mad and get slated as Wokism.
Whatever they are called there is still clearly a need for them - see the abuse black England footballers got after Euro 2020.
The graph is looking increasingly like a steady rise from mid-June, overlaid by a big football-related spike. Increasing freedom and activity being countered almost exactly by increasing numbers vaccinated and/or infected. R therefore holding steady at just over 1.
Which I'm struggling to believe, frankly. The Euros maybe had an impact, but surely not THAT big an impact. Still, that's what it looks like.
The first rule of analysising covid numbers is that Alistair is always right.
Unusually, in this case you are wrong, for the reasons @Philip_Thompson explains.
The second rule is that if it appears the first rule has been violated then reality is wrong.
And if you think that I might be enjoying just the teensiest amount of schadenfreude you'd be absolutely right.
There is no amount of cock-up that a botched investigation cannot make worse.
There may have been some racist banter when Tony Blair turned up at Liffe, when a blond Canadian girl turned up in the Liffe bund pit and went six bid the whole pit turned round and said sold!
Latest daily figure for England-only Covid hospital admissions is 832. Not great...
This is not good.
I shall be in Pitcairn by December
Population 47. Unless they are quite extraordinarily interesting, someone who often claims he can find no entertainment on PB is going to go stir crazy on Pitcairn within a week.
Yes, I made that point earlier. Increased immunity from vaccination and/or infection is acting in almost perfect counterbalance to increased social activity, holding R just above 1.
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
If R was just above 1 and it was all Euro-related there'd have been no fall down post-Euros. The Euros would have done a step-change up and then from there cases would have continued to grow.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
Yes. And one would expect that Delta is going to act as a Booster shot to lots of vaccinated Brits. So, if R is 1.1 now, then so long as the doubling time is sufficiently elevated, and so long as the vaccines continue to be highly effective at preventing serious infection, then it will be OK.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
Yes, we're looking at around 7-9m people entering the immunity funnel in the next 6-8 weeks and from mid September booster shots for groups 1-6 and then 7-10 in November and early December. That means 49m people will be at little to no risk of getting severe symptoms. The hospital funnel at that point will have just 2.5m potential victims of which we know around 10% will end up going. That's an all time figure for vaccinated people with what feels like an evolutionary cul-de-sac for the virus given how transmissible Delta is.
What I do wonder is when we'll extend vaccines down to 8+ once Pfizer and Moderna get approval next month. It feels like that will be the true end of it.
What's also been interesting is that in advance of 16/17 year olds being made eligible there's still been an uptick in first doses. We've gone from barely more than 150k per week to almost 300k per week and now we're adding a new cohort from Monday. That's surprising and it is definitely coming from the younger cohorts who were at below 60% and are now above 70% with that slow trickle.
Latest daily figure for England-only Covid hospital admissions is 832. Not great...
Given that it’s been acknowledged that a significant number (50%?) of “Covid” hospital admissions are not in fact due to Covid, isn’t rising hospital admissions at least in part clearly linked to rising positive tests? So it’s a link between cases and hospitalisation, but not in a negative way.
It is sometimes hard to disentangle the course of events. If someone is admitted with a hip fracture, was it the covid that caused them to fall? Did they catch it in the ambulance or ED? Did they catch it on the ward? Certainly there is still a fair amount of covid caught in hospital.
With a current prevalence of 1% or so then I think it unlikely that more than a few admissions had it purely by coincidence.
Comments
What Chinese communist party inspired measures do you suggest?
You can shove the Parthenon up your bum because it is rubbish compared to the Jorvik Viking Centre.
In absolute numbers the 7 day average is now 26,076, up 13% on its low on 31/7, and 4% on the week.
If you remove the "Euro hump", it's now looking not far off a straight line from the start of June.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1428375518836035590?s=20
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
You must be so thick that light refracts around you.
I mean the Chinese Communist Party were welding people shut in their homes whilst we were free to leave the house during lockdown.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/19/former-mp-jared-omara-charged-with-seven-counts-of-fraud
Who would have thought he might be a wrong'un?
I find it hard to believe that the Euros could have THAT big an impact, but maybe they did.
Former MP Jared O’Mara has been charged with seven counts of fraud by false representation, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said.
In a statement, Rosemary Ainslie, head of special crime at the CPS, said: “The charges relates to an allegation he made fraudulent invoices to the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority in 2019 jointly with Gareth Arnold, who is also charged with six counts of the same offence.
“Jared O’Mara is charged jointly with John Woodliff with a Proceeds of Crime Act offence. The CPS made the decision that the three men should be charged after reviewing a file of evidence from South Yorkshire police.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/19/former-mp-jared-omara-charged-with-seven-counts-of-fraud
Thank God he isn't my MP anymore.
I read our ambassador to took up post in June, talk about a hospital pass.
Gobekli Tepe ?
https://www.archaeology.org/issues/422-2105/features/9591-turkey-gobekli-tepe-hunter-gatherers
You can see the man shitting on the shit hole as well.
That smell is seared on my brain.
You really do get up close and personal on the ride.
Plus I think in German Colonial Governor translates as Ambassador.
And he sought to use his disability to excuse his inability or unwillingness to do the job.
But...
This is a multi-layered fuck up.
The deal that Trump signed with the Taliban emboldened them, and it also made it clear to the Afghan Government that we weren't prepared to fight for them. Heck - the Afghan Government wasn't even party to the capitulation to the Taliban. Imagine if the US had signed a deal with North Vietnam, that didn't even involve the South?
And Biden (and his advisors) should have read the deal, and recognised the consequences of it. They were in a perfect position to say "sorry, new Government in the US, new rules". They didn't.
R dropped to below 1 initially post Euros to reverse the hump.
1) Labour never expected to win the seat or so just put up a paper candidate. Remember in April 2017 given the poll leads it was more likely the Tories took the seat from the LDs than Labour.
2) He never expected to be an MP, see 1)
3) He's the first generation to have social media posts as teenagers/young adults to haunt them.
Even rushed for 2017 how the heck did he persuade the local party to select him? He seems to have been lazy, nasty and an idiot (and now add possible criminal), and even local parties can usually pick someone who is only 2 of those.
Lockdown. Prevention of assembly and association. Movement tracing. Aggressive propaganda. Vaccine passports.
Some western countries have been overwhelmed by this approach. Look at Australistan and New Zealistan.
The Afghans have taken note. They won't be the last.
But it's looking rather less encouraging than it was.
Thank goodness we're not New Zealand or Australia, mind.
3 I'll grant, but he seems to have been haunted more by how he acted now, not historically.
“It’s all male, male, male. It’s a theater of horror filled with abrasive male animals ready to attack,” Zimmermann says. “It represents a staunch, conservative, male-dominated hunter-gatherer culture.” In this telling, there’s a reason there are no signs of domesticated grains or tools typical of the Neolithic period at Göbekli Tepe—according to Zimmermann and Clare, they were forbidden."
lol. that's about as mad as claiming it is a "Temple in Eden" which I believe some fanciful writers have done, in the past
The genius of Gobekli Tepe is that we will never know. No one knows. It's so far back it is beyond our comprehension and there will be no scientific proof of what it was "for", and it is so outside our understanding, your theory - or mine - is as valid as any archaeologist's.
What a place. If you ever get the chance, go. I was so lucky to see it when I did. Just me and Klaus Schmidt and a couple of dozen excavating students. No tourists. A few Kurdish villagers, No one knew about it, back then. We wandered around the pillars. Took tea by the megaliths. Amazing
That seems an incredible number...I know the delta variant is much more transmissible than kent, but without vaccinations, they are effectively saying the majority of population having had COVID by now.
No.
It was only ever about the method of getting out.
I shall be in Pitcairn by December
The number of people dismissed or, indeed, disciplined for breaching internal policies on sexism and bullying is still vanishingly small.
This is an interesting case.
https://www.finews.com/news/english-news/45923-ubs-rape-victim-freshfield-ruling-transparency
And if you think that I might be enjoying just the teensiest amount of schadenfreude you'd be absolutely right.
There is no amount of cock-up that a botched investigation cannot make worse.
Civil war by the end of the year
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/several-reported-killed-taliban-shoot-crowds-waving-afghan-flag
Ring ring.
"Who is it, Mohammed?"
"A man who says he's the British Ambassador, or something."
"Not American?"
"He denies it."
"Tell him to f*ck off."
Family 1
Mother (double-jabbed) and 2 kids got it. All of them were knocked for 6 and in bed with bad tiredness but were fine after a few days. The Dad (double jabbed) and other child didn't even get it.
Family 2
2 children got it (out of 3) both with fairly mild symptoms. Both double-jabbed parents avoided getting it along with the youngest child.
Family 3
Teenager daughter got Covid in last week of school. Did not give to either parent (double-jabbed with Moderna) or their 12yo brother.
Also my 3 kids came into close contact with the kids of Family 2 on the day they were diagnosed with Covid. None of mine (ages 3 to 12) got anything and we tested daily for the week after the contact.
I'd really like to understand why some close contacts of Delta get it and some don't. It seems to be quite random but it can't be.
If he had dismantled Trumps deal, signed a new one, and the same thing happened in 2023 instead of 2021 it would be terminal for the Democrats. If he wanted to stay forever against public opinion it was probably do-able but would have been done so half heartedly it would not have left Afghanistan in any better place.
No serious politician in the US was, or is. The last remaining neo-cons like Liz Cheney face the fights of their lives to even be considered as repubs for 2022.
Don;t tell me you support them.
lockdown -yep
Prevention of assembly and association - yep
limits on movement - yep
propaganda - yep
So, I'm not sure what your point is, except that the responses to infectious diseases are usually from the same toolkit.
I note that only 25% of our current covid inpatients are over 70, many with non-covid primary diagnoses (fractures for example) so I don't see that vaccines wearing off is a big issue, at least yet, in terms of risk of severe disease.
he told the press a month ago the Afghan government could hold out for a year or more under the terms of the deal. Trump's deal.
It was welcomed by our current Defence Minister, and Tom Tugendhat doesn't seem to have had much to say about it at the time.
https://morningconsult.com/2021/08/16/afghanistan-withdrawal-taliban-polling/
What I do wonder is when we'll extend vaccines down to 8+ once Pfizer and Moderna get approval next month. It feels like that will be the true end of it.
What's also been interesting is that in advance of 16/17 year olds being made eligible there's still been an uptick in first doses. We've gone from barely more than 150k per week to almost 300k per week and now we're adding a new cohort from Monday. That's surprising and it is definitely coming from the younger cohorts who were at below 60% and are now above 70% with that slow trickle.
The level of open bigotry, abuse and discrimination is much less than it used to be I grant you. But that has been achieved precisely because of concerted campaigns against such behaviour by people who care. Such campaigns were previously labelled Political Correctness Gone Mad and get slated as Wokism.
Whatever they are called there is still clearly a need for them - see the abuse black England footballers got after Euro 2020.
Unless they are quite extraordinarily interesting, someone who often claims he can find no entertainment on PB is going to go stir crazy on Pitcairn within a week.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1428379947945582600?s=20
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/uk-covid-booster-jabs-highly-unlikely-to-begin-soon-jcvi-sources-say
9 August 2021 — Update to denominator used in headline vaccination uptake More.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/eaf55398-fb73-41af-a075-31e645ce3a65
With a current prevalence of 1% or so then I think it unlikely that more than a few admissions had it purely by coincidence.