Any of the Boris Johnson fanbois still deluding themselves that their hero is a latter day Churchill?
If they are still that delusional they need to watch his pathetic excuses in parliament yesterday. Those of my erstwhile fellow Conservative Party members need to reflect on their idiocy in allowing this buffoon to accede to the highest office in the land.
Looks like we need updated vaccines ASAP.....winter is going to be bad.
Given you’re a sensible commenter on such matters, unlike a few here, and not given to overly melodramatic twaddle why do you say that about winter ?
Vaccines are being updated and we have been told they can be tweaked. Be interesting to know how it is going.
The data is showing significant waning of protection after 6 months and double whammy that a break through infected individual is just as infectious as an unvaccinated person. Both of these factors weren't true / thought to be true vs original or alpha variant.
Add on the start point for the winter will be fairly high levels of covid in society, as we have seen during the low season, i.e. summer + schools out, the background level of covid aren't disappearing like last year.
We keep being told the vaccines can be tweaked, but it doesn't seem we will get them this winter (MaxPB knows a lot more about this than me).
The bolded bit is not quite true.
A breakthrough infection does peak at similar viral loading to an unvaccinated infected person, but drops off a lot faster.
For example, taking the derived data and adding in a line at a Ct of 30 (about where the threshold of infectivity lies):
Which implies that a breakthrough-infected person is infectious for about 60% of the length of time that an unvaccinated infected person is. Which does make a difference when we're looking at a population-level R number.
Add to that the fact that breakthrough infections are considerably rarer than straightforward infections. Say, for argument, that AZ is 70% effective at preventing infections long-term against Delta. We can graphically show that like this:
So every 10 unvaccinated people exposed to the point where they would expect to be infected should give 145 person-days of transmissibility. Every 10 vaccinated people exposed to a similar point should give 25.5 person-days of transmissibility.
That reduction of between 5-fold and 6-fold in transmissibility of a vaccinated population versus an unvaccinated population will be behind a considerable part of the way that cases haven't run away in the UK after such a huge relaxation of restrictions.
5-6 fold reduction is a universe away from the initial projections, where they talked about 1 in 200,000 chance of transmission between a two vaccinated people. There would have been so little of it about within no time, that it would be virtually impossible to actually catch it.
Instead we are in a situation where plenty of onward transmission is possible, even if it is reduced from an unvaccinated plague spreader after a few days.
Herd immunity (by vaccination) is no longer a goer, is my understanding. We'll be living with Covid. It'll take its place as a disease causing some damage each year, but with a periodic jab as routine for most of the UK population its impact will be manageable and it'll fade from the headlines. In fact the emergency is already over as far as here is concerned. Least arguably it is. Probably the main challenge we have is the NHS clearing the non-Covid backlog and getting back to full service capacity. So perhaps the time is right now (or soon) for less news coverage of our daily numbers and more focus on the bigger picture, ie the global pandemic which is still very much raging, many places being chronically short of what they need to bring it under control - vaccines.
FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.
It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.
OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:
East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town? The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK
Get the picture.
I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.
I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.
" ... servicing wealthy incomers."
You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
'Servicing' does have a very gender-specific meaning in that context, at least in animal breeding. I wouldn't pretend to think what the terminology is in escort agencies, mind.
Johnson seem unable to make any sort of decision until he absolutely has to, and has a lifelong reputation for being late with pretty much everything. Since sacking someone is a decision without any deadline, it will take a lot of internal party pressure on him to get him across the line.
Meanwhile FPT I see that our Mr G is once again promising to leave the Conservative Party. Is anyone offering odds?
FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.
It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.
OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:
East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town? The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK
Get the picture.
I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.
I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.
" ... servicing wealthy incomers."
You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
Despite your vigorous defence of second homes against the badass of pb.com, my point was Tim Farron was running a risk here, as every second Lib Dem in Twickenham or Richmond or Surbiton will have a second home.
There is a reason why campaigns against second homes are politically brave .....
And the only reason I have not gone after Tory MPs is I expect most own > 2 homes.
Agree with all of that.
And just to make clear I wasn't defending 2nd homes (I am allowed to be a hypocrite you know), I was just pointing out it isn't that simple a solution hence I agree with you re Tim Farron.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
Given that iSAGE told us we would now be facing catastrophe on stilts (mid August was iirc predicted to be the peak of the disaster with dying people eating rats on makeshift beds in hospital car parks) then I think flatlining is a triumph.
Johnson seem unable to make any sort of decision until he absolutely has to, and has a lifelong reputation for being late with pretty much everything. Since sacking someone is a decision without any deadline, it will take a lot of internal party pressure on him to get him across the line.
Meanwhile FPT I see that our Mr G is once again promising to leave the Conservative Party. Is anyone offering odds?
Another JCVI source said a particular worry was the potential impact of pushing third vaccinations on a public within which the take-up of other vaccinations, for example for children and teenagers, had “dropped off a cliff” since the start of the pandemic.
FFsake
What fresh hell is this ?
It feels like desperately trying to find a reason to justify not following the same path of everybody else (and the science)....the sort of excuses a teenager comes up with as why they can't tidy their room.
If you include the various sub committees, a JCVI source could be any of about 100 scientists. Unless its getting flagged up by the JCVI, the CMO, CSO, MRHA themselves it seems prudent to give little weight to such stories, at least initially.
That could well be his presidential hopes going up in smoke.
Why? As I read it, at the moment these are school boards in predominently Democratic counties around Florida's main cities. That's pretty good for DeSantis' presidential hopes - as far as a Republican electorate is concerned, he's annoying the right people.
I accept that's a profoundly depressing thing to write - that you win by dividing not by unifying - but in political betting terms, particularly for securing the nomination, that's the reality. It's all about choosing your enemies well.
Because now he needs to follow through on his threat to defund them otherwise he looks completely impotent.
Trump lost an election, the battle with COVID, and his mind. He was impeached twice, and beset by multiple policy failures. There is no real way to characterise his Presidency other than as a colossal failure.
Yet he'd still waltz to a win in the Republican primaries if he decided to go again (albeit, personally, I'm not sure he will try again as the General Election is a slightly different matter).
The weird thing at the moment is that, in America, and particularly in GOP politics, that stuff really doesn't matter. You bluster, you lie, you pick fights with the right people. If you lose, you declare the other side the Losers, and comment darkly on the deep state and the need for you to have more power. The normal metrics of competence and quality don't apply.
I think DeSantis is going about it broadly the right way if (as I am sure he does) he wants to take it on if Trump decides to call it a day.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
"Decadence and hubris have finally brought down the American Empire The US is in retreat on all fronts, and its incompetent politicians are incapable of reversing the decline ALLISTER HEATH"
I disagree with the headline and challenge whether America really wants to be an empire. There are two very clear takeaways: no-one who matters in the US wants to keep a presence in Afghanistan; most people including Biden were caught out by the speed of the Taliban advance. If they had known the second, they would have been even more determined on the first.
There are issues of moral obligation to the people of the country they occupied, of the effect on allies and perceived chaos doesn't help Biden politically. But he is brutally clear on his intentions. Which is why accusations of doddery old man are well wide of the mark
Another JCVI source said a particular worry was the potential impact of pushing third vaccinations on a public within which the take-up of other vaccinations, for example for children and teenagers, had “dropped off a cliff” since the start of the pandemic.
FFsake
What fresh hell is this ?
It feels like desperately trying to find a reason to justify not following the same path of everybody else (and the science)....the sort of excuses a teenager comes up with as why they can't tidy their room.
If you include the various sub committees, a JCVI source could be any of about 100 scientists. Unless its getting flagged up by the JCVI, the CMO, CSO, MRHA themselves it seems prudent to give little weight to such stories, at least initially.
Also not true to say the 'same path as everyone else' - there remains considerable scientific debate about if, when amd for whom, when boosters might be needed.
FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.
It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.
OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:
East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town? The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK
Get the picture.
I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.
I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.
" ... servicing wealthy incomers."
You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
Despite your vigorous defence of second homes against the badass of pb.com, my point was Tim Farron was running a risk here, as every second Lib Dem in Twickenham or Richmond or Surbiton will have a second home.
There is a reason why campaigns against second homes are politically brave .....
And the only reason I have not gone after Tory MPs is I expect most own > 2 homes.
Agree with all of that.
And just to make clear I wasn't defending 2nd homes (I am allowed to be a hypocrite you know), I was just pointing out it isn't that simple a solution hence I agree with you re Tim Farron.
There is a growing head of steam against second homes in rural and coastal areas, and many councils are looking at their options to see what they can do to discourage them within the existing planning and council tax rules (which isn’t very much, mostly symbolic). Possibly this pressure will grow to the point where government has to allow councils a bit more freedom to act.
Where second home owners actively let their properties out, when they are not using it, to holidaymakers, it isn’t so bad. But there are many in communities like mine who seem to visit only now and again and otherwise are happy to leave their property shut up and empty.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
Achievements of this sort are pretty meaningless if most ordinary people in the West feel life is getting worse, which I think many of them do.
Any of the Boris Johnson fanbois still deluding themselves that their hero is a latter day Churchill?
If they are still that delusional they need to watch his pathetic excuses in parliament yesterday. Those of my erstwhile fellow Conservative Party members need to reflect on their idiocy in allowing this buffoon to accede to the highest office in the land.
To be fair, the Prime Minister may well be a latter day Churchill.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
Are you still in Athens then, or back in London?
Could (stretching a small point) be in Edinburgh, sitting on the terrace of the Hotel Merde and looking east.
Is there really a Hotel Merde anywhere?
Thanks, because I'm currently Googling this like a madman to figure out whether it's a typo or a really complex joke that's gone straight over my head.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
Are you still in Athens then, or back in London?
Could (stretching a small point) be in Edinburgh, sitting on the terrace of the Hotel Merde and looking east.
Is there really a Hotel Merde anywhere?
Thanks, because I'm currently Googling this like a madman to figure out whether it's a typo or a really complex joke that's gone straight over my head.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
On topic, what's the best "SACRIFICIAL LAMB RAAB" you've ever eaten? I had a lovely one at an unassuming little restaurant in Vauxhall back in 1998 - really authentic and full of flavour.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
Wtf happened to the alien revelation?!
You lot don’t like talking about that. But yes. Only yesterday, the Administrator of NASA received a classified briefing on the UAP phenomena, according to FOI requests.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
There is growing disillusion with democracy across the west - spurred on since the financial crisis by growing inequality, glaring intergenerational unfairness, and a continued slide from competitive economy into proto-oligarchy; meanwhile the west continues to try and impose democratic values upon the rest of the world.
Sooner or later, something is going to have to give….
On topic, what's the best "SACRIFICIAL LAMB RAAB" you've ever eaten? I had a lovely one at an unassuming little restaurant in Vauxhall back in 1998 - really authentic and full of flavour.
I know what the worst I have eaten was. Once in Uigherland a whole charred sheep’s head was plonked in front of me and I was given a bowl of chilli sauce, chopsticks and a bottle of rice wine. They then rotated the head to reveal the big flaps of brain. Ugh. What’s wrong with the chops?
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
Are you still in Athens then, or back in London?
Could (stretching a small point) be in Edinburgh, sitting on the terrace of the Hotel Merde and looking east.
Is there really a Hotel Merde anywhere?
Thanks, because I'm currently Googling this like a madman to figure out whether it's a typo or a really complex joke that's gone straight over my head.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
There is growing disillusion with democracy across the west - spurred on since the financial crisis by growing inequality, glaring intergenerational unfairness, and a continued slide from competitive economy into proto-oligarchy; meanwhile the west continues to try and impose democratic values upon the rest of the world.
Sooner or later, something is going to have to give….
In short, Western Capitalism has ceased to work for those without capital.
Johnson seem unable to make any sort of decision until he absolutely has to, and has a lifelong reputation for being late with pretty much everything. Since sacking someone is a decision without any deadline, it will take a lot of internal party pressure on him to get him across the line.
Meanwhile FPT I see that our Mr G is once again promising to leave the Conservative Party. Is anyone offering odds?
Who leaves first? Raab or G?
Raab can be pushed whereas G has to jump.
The clown will procrastinate over Raab while G can simply be late in sending in his renewal cheque, knowing that he can do so at any time. I reckon Raab will finally be pushed (perhaps to a consolation prize job) and in the end G will renew. Hence my bet would go on Raab.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
Also, Pikri beer is really good. Greece now has excellent artisanal IPAs
Any of the Boris Johnson fanbois still deluding themselves that their hero is a latter day Churchill?
If they are still that delusional they need to watch his pathetic excuses in parliament yesterday. Those of my erstwhile fellow Conservative Party members need to reflect on their idiocy in allowing this buffoon to accede to the highest office in the land.
To be fair, the Prime Minister may well be a latter day Churchill.
Unfortunately, more Randolph than Winston.
The Afghan retreat changes everything and changes nothing in terms of the UK's place in the world. We are talking about the fact the US didn't bother to tell the UK that it was pulling out of Afghanistan before it went ahead and did so. Global Britain always was an empty slogan. This episode reveals it to be such. Maybe it will be a wake up call so the UK finds a proper foreign policy, but I don't hold my breath with this crew.
Roll out a third jab - of a different type to the first jab for people (Novavax would be a good candidate) to give at the same time as the flu jab.
Send AZ and Pfizer and Moderna (after our first dose capacity is reached) out through covax to help vaccinate the world.
Offer jabs to all over-12s if wanted.
Ramp up hospital capacity and number of staff. It will take time (literally years), so we're doing it for the next pandemic.
We don't want to be caught on the hop again. And with climate change and biodiversity decrease and us as a species pushing further into other species territories and reducing their living space, we're going to see an increased rate of zoonotic transfer of viruses (if I understand correctly).
So we've got to bite the bullet and increase capacity.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
We had better not be doing one again.
Maybe it is just my current, rather pissed off with the world mood, but at the moment I feel I wont be obeying one.
We've done this now. Vulnerable have been vaxxed etc etc etc.
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Whereabouts was this? In most places I go mask-wearing is going down all the time.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am trying to remember which eminent scientist suggested that we would cure just about everything else first on the road to an HIV cure.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
Are you still in Athens then, or back in London?
Could (stretching a small point) be in Edinburgh, sitting on the terrace of the Hotel Merde and looking east.
Is there really a Hotel Merde anywhere?
Thanks, because I'm currently Googling this like a madman to figure out whether it's a typo or a really complex joke that's gone straight over my head.
Personally, I'd be as unaffected by another lockdown as the prior ones.
However, for extroverts it might be significantly difficult. I'm reminded of the James lyrics "If I hadn't seen such riches I could live with being poor".
It's probably worse to have things returning to normal then return to lockdown than persist with lockdown, psychologically.
Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.
I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.
Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.
My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either
The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.
If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.
We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
I'd make a distinction between things I believe in (social democracy, say) and things I'd kill someone to make it more widespread (can't think of much). It's certainly not the case that we have to fight to impose everything we believe in.
Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
My first job was as a runner at the LIFFE floor in the mid 90s. 3000 people there and probably 2975 were white. But almost all the cleaners were black and I was never comfortable with it. I remember seeing one bloke throw some food in the floor in the canteen just so the cleaner would pick it up. Coming from Essex and working there/Romford market, playing Sunday football, I heard millions of racist comments and jokes, but never really brutal, face to face, what I’d call Deep South style hatred, like that.
Things have progressed, some of the cleaners are Eastern European now!
More seriously, the brutal stuff comes along when there is a big power imbalance as well as the racial stuff. So more likely in the army, police with command structures or professional football where a youth coach can make or break your whole life, than it would be in Sunday league.
At least pre the world of cameras on mobile phones, people could easily live their life as a brutal bully, and racism was a part of that world at the time. If challenged they would simply deny it with the complainer deemed a trouble maker.
Similar process to a lot of the child abuse back then as well, authority was believed and rarely challenged successfully.
Another JCVI source said a particular worry was the potential impact of pushing third vaccinations on a public within which the take-up of other vaccinations, for example for children and teenagers, had “dropped off a cliff” since the start of the pandemic.
FFsake
What fresh hell is this ?
It feels like desperately trying to find a reason to justify not following the same path of everybody else (and the science)....the sort of excuses a teenager comes up with as why they can't tidy their room.
Given that JCVI have been right on the big calls, even when they were hugely criticised because others were deciding differently, why do you have so little faith in them?
Roll out a third jab - of a different type to the first jab for people (Novavax would be a good candidate) to give at the same time as the flu jab.
Send AZ and Pfizer and Moderna (after our first dose capacity is reached) out through covax to help vaccinate the world.
Offer jabs to all over-12s if wanted.
Ramp up hospital capacity and number of staff. It will take time (literally years), so we're doing it for the next pandemic.
We don't want to be caught on the hop again. And with climate change and biodiversity decrease and us as a species pushing further into other species territories and reducing their living space, we're going to see an increased rate of zoonotic transfer of viruses (if I understand correctly).
So we've got to bite the bullet and increase capacity.
The capacity of various vaccine production centres around the world in in the billions of doses per year and increasing.
60 million doses is a fart in a thunderstorm to what the Serum Institute in India will be churning out this year, for example.
Well worth a read - illustrating that our view of the Afghan occupation is distorted by the vet-centric perspective that is so evident in the US and to a lesser extent here at home.
It’s why I think ‘The Outpost’ film currently on Amazon Prime is well worth a watch. The film ends with a tribute to the undoubtably brave actions of the veterans portrayed during the fight with the Taliban to defend their outpost in the Afghan mountains. Yet the film also shows the futility of the so-called ‘nation building’ attempts by the occupying forces, the patient indifference of the long-suffering Afghan villagers, and ends with the US abandoning their outpost and blowing it up.
I challenge anyone to watch this film and come away thinking that all the effort, expense, injury, death and sacrifice was worth anything, in the bigger scheme of things, at all.
'All these efforts have failed to prevent the return of the barbarous Taliban.''
No, it was the withdrawal of the troops which led to the return of the barbarous Taliban and it was the withdrawal Tugendhat and Mercer were rightly criticising
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am trying to remember which eminent scientist suggested that we would cure just about everything else first on the road to an HIV cure.
When I was doing cancer research in the late 70s, the wisdom was that we would never find 'a' cure (as it is not 'a' disease) and that no progress would be made in the next 50 years. Well, 50 years on, my wife is 6 years out and clear from what would previously been an untreatable form of breast cancer, my brother-in-law has survived stage 4 colon cancer with lung mets, and a friend has survived stage 4 brain cancer. So only the first part of the wisdom turned out to be true.
The energy and scale of research in every field of science in the West is extraordinary. It will continue to achieve unimaginable things so long as our society holds together (and we are not successfully invaded by religious zealots). Our failures, to me, lie in our measurements of success - materialism, and the consequences that has had in destroying much of our social fabric. But I don't think this is a new problem in the West.
School has only been back for 3 days maximum. The majority of schools kids would have only started back yesterday.
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
Well does that mean then that this is all from testing from going back to school? i.e. probably asymptomatic cases that have only been picked up because they're all being tested going back to school? In which case annoying, but not alarming - Scotland is no iller than it was last week.
NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon. https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414
I have become extremely concerned about the JCVI's attitude, as revealed in leaks like these and public interviews with people like Adam Finn. As per the bit in bold above, they seem overly concerned about the sanctity of vaccine programmes in general, rather than the health of the public. Of course one can maintain complete confidence in vaccines by never offering any new ones that might have the slightest negative effects. Unfortunately that would also mean that people die of preventable disease.
In my view it would be immoral to prevent me and others from voluntarily choosing to have a MHRA-approved vaccine, with informed consent about risks (orders of magnitude smaller than the risks of not having a vaccine, of course), in order to maintain a public fiction that all vaccines never have any risks.
I hope that the JCVI will be directed in this matter.
You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.
You appear to be posting whines about other posters.
How shallow is that?
I just point out how shallow the continual and largely unfounded attacks on Boris are.
You on the other hand have a self appointed anti brexit whine that starts as soon as you get up and continues till close of play and has gone on since Brexit occurred Most of it, in fact nearly all of it is other people's opinions.. as I said or rather Tim late of this parish said.. Scott' n paste....
'All these efforts have failed to prevent the return of the barbarous Taliban.''
No, it was the withdrawal of the troops which led to the return of the barbarous Taliban and it was the withdrawal Tugendhat and Mercer were rightly criticising
While your friends in government remain willing to allow Saudi to continue financing all of this and Pakistan to give them shelter, what happens in Afghanistan is peripheral, at best.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am trying to remember which eminent scientist suggested that we would cure just about everything else first on the road to an HIV cure.
When I was doing cancer research in the late 70s, the wisdom was that we would never find 'a' cure (as it is not 'a' disease) and that no progress would be made in the next 50 years. Well, 50 years on, my wife is 6 years out and clear from what would previously been an untreatable form of breast cancer, my brother-in-law has survived stage 4 colon cancer with lung mets, and a friend has survived stage 4 brain cancer. So only the first part of the wisdom turned out to be true.
The energy and scale of research in every field of science in the West is extraordinary. It will continue to achieve unimaginable things so long as our society holds together (and we are not successfully invaded by religious zealots). Our failures, to me, lie in our measurements of success - materialism, and the consequences that has had in destroying much of our social fabric. But I don't think this is a new problem in the West.
Yes - the scientist in question, IIRC, was saying that HIV was such a hard problem that the spinoffs from developing the technology to even really work on a cure would solve many other diseases.
I think you could argue he was right. And now we have a couple of serious attempts at an HIV vaccine in the works...
Roll out a third jab - of a different type to the first jab for people (Novavax would be a good candidate) to give at the same time as the flu jab.
Send AZ and Pfizer and Moderna (after our first dose capacity is reached) out through covax to help vaccinate the world.
Offer jabs to all over-12s if wanted.
Ramp up hospital capacity and number of staff. It will take time (literally years), so we're doing it for the next pandemic.
We don't want to be caught on the hop again. And with climate change and biodiversity decrease and us as a species pushing further into other species territories and reducing their living space, we're going to see an increased rate of zoonotic transfer of viruses (if I understand correctly).
So we've got to bite the bullet and increase capacity.
Pretty much what I think too. And right on about the increased rate of zoonotic transfer.
My wife and I went to Ireland on the holyhead ferry last week for a family wedding in Co. Kildare. According to the regulations, we needed our two-jabs certificate, our passports, and a copy of our locator details.
Having carefully arranged them into separate folders, I prepared to show them to the customs man at his Dublin port booth. He asked if II had all three. When I said 'Yes," he just waved me through.
Later, in Co Kerry, we were asked for our two-jabs certificate in a restaurant. When we had to admit we'd left it in the hotel, she decided to take our word for it.
School has only been back for 3 days maximum. The majority of schools kids would have only started back yesterday.
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
Well does that mean then that this is all from testing from going back to school? i.e. probably asymptomatic cases that have only been picked up because they're all being tested going back to school? In which case annoying, but not alarming - Scotland is no iller than it was last week.
It's across all the lower vaccination percentage age groups. The rate for 25-44 year old has doubled per 100k from the 14th to the 16th. 20-24 has increased even more.
NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon. https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414
I have become extremely concerned about the JCVI's attitude, as revealed in leaks like these and public interviews with people like Adam Finn. As per the bit in bold above, they seem overly concerned about the sanctity of vaccine programmes in general, rather than the health of the public. Of course one can maintain complete confidence in vaccines by never offering any new ones that might have the slightest negative effects. Unfortunately that would also mean that people die of preventable disease.
In my view it would be immoral to prevent me and others from voluntarily choosing to have a MHRA-approved vaccine, with informed consent about risks (orders of magnitude smaller than the risks of not having a vaccine, of course), in order to maintain a public fiction that all vaccines never have any risks.
I hope that the JCVI will be directed in this matter.
--AS
Surgeries in Hampshire have already asked staff to work overtime at weekends in Sept/Oct to deliver the booster jab.
'All these efforts have failed to prevent the return of the barbarous Taliban.''
No, it was the withdrawal of the troops which led to the return of the barbarous Taliban and it was the withdrawal Tugendhat and Mercer were rightly criticising
While your friends in government remain willing to allow Saudi to continue financing all of this and Pakistan to give them shelter, what happens in Afghanistan is peripheral, at best.
Bin Laden was born in Saudi, he never based his terrorist operations there he based them in Sudan, Afghanistan and then Pakistan.
The US of course sent special forces to Pakistan too to kill Bin Laden.
Ease of recording cuts both ways, though. At university I briefly came across the phenomenon of rape as a gang initiation. It gets filmed, then used as a means of controlling the perpetrators. Grisly stuff.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
School has only been back for 3 days maximum. The majority of schools kids would have only started back yesterday.
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
It is quite possible the schools all asked the kids to test before they go back (i.e on 16th/17th). It is therefore picking up on a load of asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have otherwise been detected. Just expect in 3 weeks' time when the rest of the UK's schoolkids go back for there to be an even bigger spike.
It does raise the question as to why the 12 to 15 year old children are not being jabbed. The jabs have been deemed safe for them so what is holding them back? My suspicion is that they want to stockpile Pfizer/Moderna as booster jabs for all the oldies who had AZ the first time around.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
That seems highly dubious tbh - if boosters are recommended it'll be for all previous recipients.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
I have seen the communication to the Surgeries from the Government. I will try and get a copy and upload it.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
That seems highly dubious tbh - if boosters are recommended it'll be for all previous recipients.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
I have seen the communication to the Surgeries from the Government. I will try and get a copy and upload it.
Thanks. Very interested in this. Have seen occasional suggestions before that AZ is better at provoking t cell response, wondering if there is a connection.
School has only been back for 3 days maximum. The majority of schools kids would have only started back yesterday.
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
It is quite possible the schools all asked the kids to test before they go back (i.e on 16th/17th). It is therefore picking up on a load of asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have otherwise been detected. Just expect in 3 weeks' time when the rest of the UK's schoolkids go back for there to be an even bigger spike.
It does raise the question as to why the 12 to 15 year old children are not being jabbed. The jabs have been deemed safe for them so what is holding them back? My suspicion is that they want to stockpile Pfizer/Moderna as booster jabs for all the oldies who had AZ the first time around.
I don't think 'positives among schoolkids' necessarily implies 'schoolkids should be jabbed'. If it's true that getting jabbed doesn't stop you spreading it, and if it's also true that schoolkids are not at risk of serious illness from covid, and if its also true that there are potential dangers with the vaccine, then jabbing schoolkids may be either a) pointless and/or b) more risky than not doing so. I don't know the extent to which the above questions are true.
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am trying to remember which eminent scientist suggested that we would cure just about everything else first on the road to an HIV cure.
When I was doing cancer research in the late 70s, the wisdom was that we would never find 'a' cure (as it is not 'a' disease) and that no progress would be made in the next 50 years. Well, 50 years on, my wife is 6 years out and clear from what would previously been an untreatable form of breast cancer, my brother-in-law has survived stage 4 colon cancer with lung mets, and a friend has survived stage 4 brain cancer. So only the first part of the wisdom turned out to be true.
The energy and scale of research in every field of science in the West is extraordinary. It will continue to achieve unimaginable things so long as our society holds together (and we are not successfully invaded by religious zealots). Our failures, to me, lie in our measurements of success - materialism, and the consequences that has had in destroying much of our social fabric. But I don't think this is a new problem in the West.
Yes - the scientist in question, IIRC, was saying that HIV was such a hard problem that the spinoffs from developing the technology to even really work on a cure would solve many other diseases.
I think you could argue he was right. And now we have a couple of serious attempts at an HIV vaccine in the works...
I was leaning on mrna vaccines with my original comment, on the assumption that we’ve cracked the technology. But I suppose some of the recent data should give me pause…
I'd be very surprised if Johnson came out of sacking the incompetent Raab looking stronger. To fire his senior Cabinet Minister so soon after his chief advisor points to a shambolic administration. More so when his immediate predecessor -Theresa May -is showing us what a decent Prime Minister might have looked like
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer
Life, huh
We’re at a weird moment in history. Because in roughly the next decade we’re also highly likely going to see the West land on Mars and build a lunar base, pretty likely going to invent an HIV vaccine and probably another for many more cancers, with a bigger than outside shot of first commercialisation of fusion power.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
I am trying to remember which eminent scientist suggested that we would cure just about everything else first on the road to an HIV cure.
When I was doing cancer research in the late 70s, the wisdom was that we would never find 'a' cure (as it is not 'a' disease) and that no progress would be made in the next 50 years. Well, 50 years on, my wife is 6 years out and clear from what would previously been an untreatable form of breast cancer, my brother-in-law has survived stage 4 colon cancer with lung mets, and a friend has survived stage 4 brain cancer. So only the first part of the wisdom turned out to be true.
The energy and scale of research in every field of science in the West is extraordinary. It will continue to achieve unimaginable things so long as our society holds together (and we are not successfully invaded by religious zealots). Our failures, to me, lie in our measurements of success - materialism, and the consequences that has had in destroying much of our social fabric. But I don't think this is a new problem in the West.
Yes - the scientist in question, IIRC, was saying that HIV was such a hard problem that the spinoffs from developing the technology to even really work on a cure would solve many other diseases.
I think you could argue he was right. And now we have a couple of serious attempts at an HIV vaccine in the works...
Yep. As I see it, HIV presents 3 challenges to vaccination, each huge mountains to climb, and two of which would have very general applications to other diseases:
1. it both multiplies and mutates at such a rate that its immunogenicity is constantly changing, and each infected person has multiple strains in their body at any one time 2. it hides its antigenic surface proteins (which vaccines would target) with sugars which the host recognizes as self 3. it inserts its genetic material into the genome of T-cells to form latent infections, thereby becoming invisible to the immune system until it starts replicating again.
With regards to 3, gene drives might present a route of attack. They work by inserting a CRISPR-Cas9 complex into the cell. CRISPR's origin is as the immune system, or more correctly, genome repair system of archaea in defence against viral infections. Gene drives work by scanning for faults in the genome (against a template) and repairing those faults. Thus you can, in theory, set up a CRISPR-Cas9 system to recognize a viral insertion in a genome as a fault which it repairs (i.e. excises the viral genome).
I'd be very surprised if Johnson came out of sacking the incompetent Raab looking stronger. To fire his senior Cabinet Minister so soon after his chief advisor points to a shambolic administration. More so when his immediate predecessor -Theresa May -is showing us what a decent Prime Minister might have looked like
I'd be very surprised if Johnson came out of sacking the incompetent Raab looking stronger. To fire his senior Cabinet Minister so soon after his chief advisor points to a shambolic administration. More so when his immediate predecessor -Theresa May -is showing us what a decent Prime Minister might have looked like
I think it quite likely a lot of leaders might have qualities to be good PMs, just not for the time they found themselves.
Whether either could be decent, I'm not sure they were suited to the particular challenges they faced.
School has only been back for 3 days maximum. The majority of schools kids would have only started back yesterday.
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
It is quite possible the schools all asked the kids to test before they go back (i.e on 16th/17th). It is therefore picking up on a load of asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have otherwise been detected. Just expect in 3 weeks' time when the rest of the UK's schoolkids go back for there to be an even bigger spike.
It does raise the question as to why the 12 to 15 year old children are not being jabbed. The jabs have been deemed safe for them so what is holding them back? My suspicion is that they want to stockpile Pfizer/Moderna as booster jabs for all the oldies who had AZ the first time around.
I don't think 'positives among schoolkids' necessarily implies 'schoolkids should be jabbed'. If it's true that getting jabbed doesn't stop you spreading it, and if it's also true that schoolkids are not at risk of serious illness from covid, and if its also true that there are potential dangers with the vaccine, then jabbing schoolkids may be either a) pointless and/or b) more risky than not doing so. I don't know the extent to which the above questions are true.
i. Massively lowers spread ii. The risk of myocarditis is less than catching Covid, the CDC have looked into this one in the states.
@NerysHughes - I just spotted something you said a few threads back about surgeries in Hampshire being briefed that Pfizer recipients would get a half shot booster but AZ recipients didn't need a booster as their immunity kept on building. I couldn't see any follow up discussion of that. Is that right and do you have anything you can link to or quote ? Many thanks
I have seen the communication to the Surgeries from the Government. I will try and get a copy and upload it.
Thanks. Very interested in this. Have seen occasional suggestions before that AZ is better at provoking t cell response, wondering if there is a connection.
From the tone of the memo I would be very surprised if those who had AZN were given a booster jab.
Where was Tugendhat when Trump signed his deal at the beginning of 2020 ?
Peter Hitchens on Twitter
“ Who said, in 2018 , 'I welcome enormously the reforms that Mohammed bin Salman has conducted recently. He is rightly showing a vision for Saudi Arabia that sees her taking her place as a player in the global economy and I think that is incredibly positive...'?”
I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.
Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.
I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
Are you kidding? No way I could hack ANOTHER five months of wintry lockdown. I will go mad, or, way more likely, I will flee the country
You have been mad erewhile, my friend.
Sure. But it's not good when I'm SUICIDALLY mad. Which is what happened last time. The insane drink driving across vineyards, doing 137mph in Dorset etc
Comments
If they are still that delusional they need to watch his pathetic excuses in parliament yesterday. Those of my erstwhile fellow Conservative Party members need to reflect on their idiocy in allowing this buffoon to accede to the highest office in the land.
Meanwhile FPT I see that our Mr G is once again promising to leave the Conservative Party. Is anyone offering odds?
And just to make clear I wasn't defending 2nd homes (I am allowed to be a hypocrite you know), I was just pointing out it isn't that simple a solution hence I agree with you re Tim Farron.
Can the Dept of Ag ban this on the grounds of safety for the chap doing the killing?
Yet he'd still waltz to a win in the Republican primaries if he decided to go again (albeit, personally, I'm not sure he will try again as the General Election is a slightly different matter).
The weird thing at the moment is that, in America, and particularly in GOP politics, that stuff really doesn't matter. You bluster, you lie, you pick fights with the right people. If you lose, you declare the other side the Losers, and comment darkly on the deep state and the need for you to have more power. The normal metrics of competence and quality don't apply.
I think DeSantis is going about it broadly the right way if (as I am sure he does) he wants to take it on if Trump decides to call it a day.
There will still be plenty of drink to be drunk and new songs to be sung for Western civilisation in our lifetime. It’s what we’re leaving behind to the next generation that unsettles me. But perhaps it has always been thus.
There are issues of moral obligation to the people of the country they occupied, of the effect on allies and perceived chaos doesn't help Biden politically. But he is brutally clear on his intentions. Which is why accusations of doddery old man are well wide of the mark
Where second home owners actively let their properties out, when they are not using it, to holidaymakers, it isn’t so bad. But there are many in communities like mine who seem to visit only now and again and otherwise are happy to leave their property shut up and empty.
Unfortunately, more Randolph than Winston.
3,367 cases in Scotland !!!!
https://twitter.com/turdhotel?lang=en
And it faces the replica of the Parthenon built on Calton Hill (admittedly they ran out of money):
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.9551185,-3.1827921,3a,75y,140.33h,84.08t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1szZifHppUwRd1trt7TR82SA!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?panoid=zZifHppUwRd1trt7TR82SA&cb_client=maps_sv.tactile.gps&w=203&h=100&yaw=193.57246&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656
Edit: in fact the header photo of that Twitter account shows both at the same time.
Sooner or later, something is going to have to give….
The clown will procrastinate over Raab while G can simply be late in sending in his renewal cheque, knowing that he can do so at any time. I reckon Raab will finally be pushed (perhaps to a consolation prize job) and in the end G will renew. Hence my bet would go on Raab.
Roll out a third jab - of a different type to the first jab for people (Novavax would be a good candidate) to give at the same time as the flu jab.
Send AZ and Pfizer and Moderna (after our first dose capacity is reached) out through covax to help vaccinate the world.
Offer jabs to all over-12s if wanted.
Ramp up hospital capacity and number of staff. It will take time (literally years), so we're doing it for the next pandemic.
We don't want to be caught on the hop again. And with climate change and biodiversity decrease and us as a species pushing further into other species territories and reducing their living space, we're going to see an increased rate of zoonotic transfer of viruses (if I understand correctly).
So we've got to bite the bullet and increase capacity.
Maybe it is just my current, rather pissed off with the world mood, but at the moment I feel I wont be obeying one.
We've done this now. Vulnerable have been vaxxed etc etc etc.
However, for extroverts it might be significantly difficult. I'm reminded of the James lyrics "If I hadn't seen such riches I could live with being poor".
It's probably worse to have things returning to normal then return to lockdown than persist with lockdown, psychologically.
"Afghanistan is not about you
Tom Tugendhat and Johnny Mercer remind us of the narcissism of Western intervention."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/08/19/afghanistan-is-not-about-you/
Not enough time for symptoms to develop and gets tested.
On the by specimen date chart the leap starts on the 16th.
More seriously, the brutal stuff comes along when there is a big power imbalance as well as the racial stuff. So more likely in the army, police with command structures or professional football where a youth coach can make or break your whole life, than it would be in Sunday league.
At least pre the world of cameras on mobile phones, people could easily live their life as a brutal bully, and racism was a part of that world at the time. If challenged they would simply deny it with the complainer deemed a trouble maker.
Similar process to a lot of the child abuse back then as well, authority was believed and rarely challenged successfully.
60 million doses is a fart in a thunderstorm to what the Serum Institute in India will be churning out this year, for example.
It’s why I think ‘The Outpost’ film currently on Amazon Prime is well worth a watch. The film ends with a tribute to the undoubtably brave actions of the veterans portrayed during the fight with the Taliban to defend their outpost in the Afghan mountains. Yet the film also shows the futility of the so-called ‘nation building’ attempts by the occupying forces, the patient indifference of the long-suffering Afghan villagers, and ends with the US abandoning their outpost and blowing it up.
I challenge anyone to watch this film and come away thinking that all the effort, expense, injury, death and sacrifice was worth anything, in the bigger scheme of things, at all.
No, it was the withdrawal of the troops which led to the return of the barbarous Taliban and it was the withdrawal Tugendhat and Mercer were rightly criticising
The energy and scale of research in every field of science in the West is extraordinary. It will continue to achieve unimaginable things so long as our society holds together (and we are not successfully invaded by religious zealots). Our failures, to me, lie in our measurements of success - materialism, and the consequences that has had in destroying much of our social fabric. But I don't think this is a new problem in the West.
One province isn't under Taliban control:
https://twitter.com/sudhirchaudhary/status/1427328094461849602
In my view it would be immoral to prevent me and others from voluntarily choosing to have a MHRA-approved vaccine, with informed consent about risks (orders of magnitude smaller than the risks of not having a vaccine, of course), in order to maintain a public fiction that all vaccines never have any risks.
I hope that the JCVI will be directed in this matter.
--AS
I think you could argue he was right. And now we have a couple of serious attempts at an HIV vaccine in the works...
Pretty much what I think too. And right on about the increased rate of zoonotic transfer.
Having carefully arranged them into separate folders, I prepared to show them to the customs man at his Dublin port booth. He asked if II had all three. When I said 'Yes," he just waved me through.
Later, in Co Kerry, we were asked for our two-jabs certificate in a restaurant. When we had to admit we'd left it in the hotel, she decided to take our word for it.
We're not the only ones who think it's all over.
And it is, you nervous Nellies.
20-24 has increased even more.
https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1427940857492254724
The US of course sent special forces to Pakistan too to kill Bin Laden.
I am not a great fan of Imran Khan's Pakistani government, Bhutto takes a tougher line on the Taliban but he was elected unlike the Taliban who took power by force
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/pakistan-news/bilawal-bhutto-slams-pakistan-pm-imrans-u-turn-on-afghanistan-crisis-calls-out-terrorism.html
Ease of recording cuts both ways, though. At university I briefly came across the phenomenon of rape as a gang initiation. It gets filmed, then used as a means of controlling the perpetrators. Grisly stuff.
@BritainElects
🇬🇧 If you had a brand new election calculator to play with, what would you call it?
Asking for a friend.
It does raise the question as to why the 12 to 15 year old children are not being jabbed. The jabs have been deemed safe for them so what is holding them back? My suspicion is that they want to stockpile Pfizer/Moderna as booster jabs for all the oldies who had AZ the first time around.
I don't know the extent to which the above questions are true.
1. it both multiplies and mutates at such a rate that its immunogenicity is constantly changing, and each infected person has multiple strains in their body at any one time
2. it hides its antigenic surface proteins (which vaccines would target) with sugars which the host recognizes as self
3. it inserts its genetic material into the genome of T-cells to form latent infections, thereby becoming invisible to the immune system until it starts replicating again.
With regards to 3, gene drives might present a route of attack. They work by inserting a CRISPR-Cas9 complex into the cell. CRISPR's origin is as the immune system, or more correctly, genome repair system of archaea in defence against viral infections. Gene drives work by scanning for faults in the genome (against a template) and repairing those faults. Thus you can, in theory, set up a CRISPR-Cas9 system to recognize a viral insertion in a genome as a fault which it repairs (i.e. excises the viral genome).
Liar will more likely promote him than fire him
Whether either could be decent, I'm not sure they were suited to the particular challenges they faced.
Of course, they do put themselves forward.
ii. The risk of myocarditis is less than catching Covid, the CDC have looked into this one in the states.
“ Who said, in 2018 , 'I welcome enormously the reforms that Mohammed bin Salman has conducted recently. He is rightly showing a vision for Saudi Arabia that sees her taking her place as a player in the global economy and I think that is incredibly positive...'?”
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1427992394830696448?s=21