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If Johnson wants a sacrificial lamb Raab looks the best choice – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 19 in General
imageIf Johnson wants a sacrificial lamb Raab looks the best choice – politicalbetting.com

After yesterday’s devastating emergency debate on Afghanistan Johnson’s government looks more bruised than ever and he needs to do something to re-assert his fading authority within the party. But in his whole career Johnson has found it difficult to sack people that he has appointed even when this appears necessary.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    I'm on the other side of this bet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Scotland and Manchester United legend Denis Law has been diagnosed with dementia.
  • https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1428321278130335756

    Quite a good conversation for once
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,498
    When Raab strolled off for the beach there was a functioning President in office in Afghanistan supported by a functioning* armed forces.

    Raab should stay put. He has done excellent service during the pandemic, having to battle those who would steal our vaccines. He deserved a holiday.

    And loving the spectacle of the media lynching Raab for being on his holidays - when for the past year, being able to go on holiday was all our media were fixated upon.

    * well, what passed for it for 20 years.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,127
    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Sacking a minister for being absolutely fucking useless might not be a good idea given BoZo...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    We have no idea of the context of this phone call and to be fair many others were on holiday including Biden himself

    Just politics but I expect him to stay
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Hence my First Secretary suggestion - 'punishes' him, but not in any meaningful way.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    Scott_xP said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Sacking a minister for being absolutely fucking useless might not be a good idea given BoZo...
    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,964
    edited August 19
    It was not Biden who led western forces withdrawing from Afghanistan, it was Biden and Harris.

    Whether Raab was on the beach or not would have made no difference to the US led withdrawal, he cut short his holiday pretty soon after to deal with the consequences anyway
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832

    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.

    You appear to be posting whines about other posters.

    How shallow is that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    Scott_xP said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Sacking a minister for being absolutely fucking useless might not be a good idea given BoZo...
    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.
    Meanwhile my life posting about AV and pineapple pizza is just so terribly fulfilling. :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    Not following the science....absolutely idiotic decision. We don't have 6 months to wait and find out that oh woophs loads of oldies died that didn't need to. There is literally zero down side to giving people boosters and massive up side. The opposite isn't worth thinking about if wrong (and the data suggests so).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the other side of this bet.

    Me too (although I haven't actually bet). Just to b/fwd my late post on PT, Hancock went off his own bat because he knew he'd become a laughing stock and couldn't do the job, but the whole 'PM demands resignation to protect and uphold standards real and perceived' is for the moment dead. This is because the PM is Boris Johnson and therefore things won't change until it isn't. They may still not, of course, depending on who we get, but the deJohnsoning of number 10 is imo a prerequisite.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    HYUFD said:

    It was not Biden who led western forces withdrawing from Afghanistan, it was Biden and Harris.

    Whether Raab was on the beach or not would have made no difference to the US led withdrawal, he cut short his holiday pretty soon after to deal with the consequences anyway

    The only ones responsible in the US are Biden and Trump
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569

    Scott_xP said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Sacking a minister for being absolutely fucking useless might not be a good idea given BoZo...
    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.
    He makes a valid point, mind
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,469
    I'm not sure about this bet, which is just as well because the betting fund is currently on the SPD (at just over 18/1)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    I don't think Raab will go, but I did take the 25/1 against him next out when it was available. Currently 9/1
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sacking a minister for being on holiday might not be a good idea given Boris was on holiday at the start of the pandemic.

    Sacking a minister for being absolutely fucking useless might not be a good idea given BoZo...
    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.
    Meanwhile my life posting about AV and pineapple pizza is just so terribly fulfilling. :smiley:
    No. Its a terrible filling.....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    HYUFD said:

    It was not Biden who led western forces withdrawing from Afghanistan, it was Biden and Harris.

    Whether Raab was on the beach or not would have made no difference to the US led withdrawal, he cut short his holiday pretty soon after to deal with the consequences anyway

    The only ones responsible in the US are Biden and Trump
    I thought it was pretty much accepted by everybody that the West should quit Afghanistan.

    The only question was how it was done.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,601

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    Not following the science....absolutely idiotic decision. We don't have 6 months to wait and find out that oh woophs loads of oldies died that didn't need to. There is literally zero down side to giving people boosters and massive up side. The opposite isn't worth thinking about if wrong (and the data suggests so).
    Can’t understand why they are dilly dallying, given it’s not taking doses away from the young and there seems little prospect of these doses being diverted overseas. Just get them in arms in advance of the autumn wave.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    edited August 19
    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans if he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out,
    Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US. I suppose that means Brown, Cameron and May couldn’t have taken us out.

    And May was ‘hand in hand’ with Trump, of course :D

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532

    When Raab strolled off for the beach there was a functioning President in office in Afghanistan supported by a functioning* armed forces.

    Raab should stay put. He has done excellent service during the pandemic, having to battle those who would steal our vaccines. He deserved a holiday.

    And loving the spectacle of the media lynching Raab for being on his holidays - when for the past year, being able to go on holiday was all our media were fixated upon.

    * well, what passed for it for 20 years.

    What is the point of having a deputy PM if they are holiday on at the same time (and too busy to take a phone call) as the PM?

    Does the deputy PM have any other responsibilities apart from, you know, being there to deputise when the PM is on holiday or ill?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    edited August 19
    Scott_xP said:

    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.

    You appear to be posting whines about other posters.

    How shallow is that?
    I just point out how shallow the continual and largely unfounded attacks on Boris are.

    You on the other hand have a self appointed anti brexit whine that starts as soon as you get up and continues till close of play and has gone on since Brexit occurred Most of it, in fact nearly all of it is other people's opinions.. as I said or rather Tim late of this parish said.. Scott' n paste....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,453
    Scott_xP said:

    I don't think Raab will go, but I did take the 25/1 against him next out when it was available. Currently 9/1

    That (next out) is a much better bet. No fixed time limit and it seems very unlikely that the downside compared to the bet in the header - someone else out first before the end of the month - happens. If there's another unexpected man (or woman) overboard then Johnson is hardly likely to want to lose another in quick succession.

    Still not tempted at 9/1 though. There are plenty of better people for the media to go after - Biden, Trump, Johnson. If the pro-Johnson media start a Raab pile-on then I'll believe it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Why were both the prime minister and his deputy on holiday at the same time? Surely the whole point of a deputy is to be at work when the boss is away or ill?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    edited August 19
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    Not following the science....absolutely idiotic decision. We don't have 6 months to wait and find out that oh woophs loads of oldies died that didn't need to. There is literally zero down side to giving people boosters and massive up side. The opposite isn't worth thinking about if wrong (and the data suggests so).
    Can’t understand why they are dilly dallying, given it’s not taking doses away from the young and there seems little prospect of these doses being diverted overseas. Just get them in arms in advance of the autumn wave.
    Same energy as paediatric vaccination within the JCVI. Heard Adam Finn on the radio this morning...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    edited August 19
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550
    Nigelb said:

    .[snipped]
    Interesting. I'm planning to visit Jason next year... will add to the possibles list.
    Also took me down a Wikipedia maze, which led to possibly the most bonkers weapon system of WWII...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aichi_M6A
    (Though there's plenty of competition for that title.)

    FPT - but BTW I happened to ask a Japanese colleague some years ago to translate a little stuff about the Hikawa Maru and he instantly recognised it - apparently happy outings with is fiancee to see it now that it is preserved. Not sure if it qualifies for aq visit as it was a hospital ship:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikawa_Maru
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,601
    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans if he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out,
    Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US. I suppose that means Brown, Cameron and May couldn’t have taken us out.

    And May was ‘hand in hand’ with Trump, of course :D

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The population has roughly doubled in size since 9/11. The young in the urban centre never knew life under Islamic radicalism, the old still had recollection from the pre civil war liberal society. Keeping things stable for another decade until those young people were firmly into adulthood may well have been enough to keep the country on the right course forever. Whether it was right or wrong to attempt an occupation in 2001/2 is a wholly different question to the cost benefit analysis of staying or leaving now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited August 19

    When Raab strolled off for the beach there was a functioning President in office in Afghanistan supported by a functioning* armed forces.

    Raab should stay put. He has done excellent service during the pandemic, having to battle those who would steal our vaccines. He deserved a holiday.

    And loving the spectacle of the media lynching Raab for being on his holidays - when for the past year, being able to go on holiday was all our media were fixated upon.

    * well, what passed for it for 20 years.

    What is the point of having a deputy PM if they are holiday on at the same time (and too busy to take a phone call) as the PM?

    Does the deputy PM have any other responsibilities apart from, you know, being there to deputise when the PM is on holiday or ill?
    The pedants will hate if someone does not point out that we do not have a Deputy PM, nor would a Deputy PM officially have any powers in the event the PM was away or ill, unless so specified by the PM.

    That said someone, whatever they are called, would be around to deal with urgent stuff when the PM is away, and Raab was clearly designated last year as being the one who would deputise (ie he is a deputy, but not a Deputy).

    I suppose here someone else was the point of call if both were away.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,965

    "... and he needs to act soon to make sure that it is not his head that is on the chopping block."

    It seems as though even OGH has joined the Taliban.

    After the beheadings comes the sex slaves :)
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Yes. I don’t see why we should try to go to these places and force them to start holding democratic elections etc. How would we like it if they started invading us and appointed religious heads of state to govern us? Who says our way is better?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    Difficult to disagree with this headline:

    "Decadence and hubris have finally brought down the American Empire
    The US is in retreat on all fronts, and its incompetent politicians are incapable of reversing the decline
    ALLISTER HEATH"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/18/witnessing-collapse-american-empire/
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,446

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Alas, this is one of those moments where I agree with the contrarian.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Why were both the prime minister and his deputy on holiday at the same time? Surely the whole point of a deputy is to be at work when the boss is away or ill?

    I understand on the Saturday Boris was to start a holiday based in the UK and by early Sunday he was at his desk

    I believe Raab was away in Cyprus at the time but as Boris was in the UK I do not see the issue

    I just think there is a whole lot of politics and not much factual evidence

    Unless of course you have more detail
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550

    Why were both the prime minister and his deputy on holiday at the same time? Surely the whole point of a deputy is to be at work when the boss is away or ill?

    I understand on the Saturday Boris was to start a holiday based in the UK and by early Sunday he was at his desk

    I believe Raab was away in Cyprus at the time but as Boris was in the UK I do not see the issue

    I just think there is a whole lot of politics and not much factual evidence

    Unless of course you have more detail
    Mr Raab is also Foreign Secretary, as well as Deputy PM. That means that the presence or otherwise of Mr Johnson is not a get-out.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082
    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    This is very much in line with a recent article in El Pais I saw a few days ago. I'm sure they will be neeeded at some point for the vulnerable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Scott_xP said:

    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035

    So which tory mp
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    edited August 19

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Since when was the West defined by libertarianism? (This is more a response to your overall worldview than that specific post.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Since when was the West defined by libertarianism?
    It's always been a central feature of Western democracies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
    There is no excuse for a delay. Those who got jabbed at the end of last year / start of this, should be getting a booster ASAP, as they are the most vulnerable.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    Scott_xP said:

    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035

    So which tory mp
    Female, ex-leader- nickname Edwina Heath. No prizes for guessing!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    isam said:

    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21

    Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,813
    Regardless of Raab's general effectiveness or particular fault in not making a phone call at a particular time, I'm going to need some evidence that the public gives a toss one way or the other before believing he might be in trouble.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035

    So which tory mp
    Female, ex-leader- nickname Edwina Heath. No prizes for guessing!
    I think she'd have been on the record.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    School boards are calling DeSantis's bluff in Florida

    https://twitter.com/jayobtv/status/1428203523636932609

    That could well be his presidential hopes going up in smoke.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035

    So which tory mp
    Female, ex-leader- nickname Edwina Heath. No prizes for guessing!
    And that is the point about anonymous comments

    Speculation follows as to who
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,004

    Scott_xP said:

    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.

    You appear to be posting whines about other posters.

    How shallow is that?
    I just point out how shallow the continual and largely unfounded attacks on Boris are.

    You on the other hand have a self appointed anti brexit whine that starts as soon as you get up and continues till close of play and has gone on since Brexit occurred Most of it, in fact nearly all of it is other people's opinions.. as I said or rather Tim late of this parish said.. Scott' n paste....
    His life seems to be

    Wake up
    Spam PB.com
    Go to bed

    Still everyone needs a hobby.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
    There is no excuse for a delay.
    The "Worried about confidence in the vaccines" reasoning seems to have been used a lot by the JCVI despite the UK public confidence in the vaccine being sky high and rock solid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
    There is no excuse for a delay.
    The "Worried about confidence in the vaccines" reasoning seems to have been used a lot by the JCVI despite the UK public confidence in the vaccine being sky high and rock solid.
    They will be far issues with confidence in the the vaccines if the ICU starts overflowing with loads of oldies again.

    Its a super easy sell, urging on the side of caution, we know oldies most at risk and most likely
    group that vaccines won't have produced antibodies / have comprised immune systems.

    And of course we will just hear more and more about Israel, USA and others doing this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
    There is no excuse for a delay.
    The "Worried about confidence in the vaccines" reasoning seems to have been used a lot by the JCVI despite the UK public confidence in the vaccine being sky high and rock solid.
    Cause and effect?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532

    isam said:

    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21

    Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
    Just got a new managerial non league job as well.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041
    edited August 19
    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). I also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on the previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394
    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans if he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out,
    Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US. I suppose that means Brown, Cameron and May couldn’t have taken us out.

    And May was ‘hand in hand’ with Trump, of course :D

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    It isn't, 'big old complex world' and all that, which is true, but I think your pacifist instincts make a good starting position.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    I had a second home in Normandy - the local mayor and others freely admitted that the spending of the Brits (who in this area tended to buy up run down rural stock and rebuild) provided a real help to the local economy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19

    FPT:

    Taz said:

    Looks like we need updated vaccines ASAP.....winter is going to be bad.

    Given you’re a sensible commenter on such matters, unlike a few here, and not given to overly melodramatic twaddle why do you say that about winter ?

    Vaccines are being updated and we have been told they can be tweaked. Be interesting to know how it is going.
    The data is showing significant waning of protection after 6 months and double whammy that a break through infected individual is just as infectious as an unvaccinated person. Both of these factors weren't true / thought to be true vs original or alpha variant.

    Add on the start point for the winter will be fairly high levels of covid in society, as we have seen during the low season, i.e. summer + schools out, the background level of covid aren't disappearing like last year.

    We keep being told the vaccines can be tweaked, but it doesn't seem we will get them this winter (MaxPB knows a lot more about this than me).
    The bolded bit is not quite true.

    A breakthrough infection does peak at similar viral loading to an unvaccinated infected person, but drops off a lot faster.

    For example, taking the derived data and adding in a line at a Ct of 30 (about where the threshold of infectivity lies):


    Which implies that a breakthrough-infected person is infectious for about 60% of the length of time that an unvaccinated infected person is. Which does make a difference when we're looking at a population-level R number.

    Add to that the fact that breakthrough infections are considerably rarer than straightforward infections. Say, for argument, that AZ is 70% effective at preventing infections long-term against Delta. We can graphically show that like this:


    So every 10 unvaccinated people exposed to the point where they would expect to be infected should give 145 person-days of transmissibility.
    Every 10 vaccinated people exposed to a similar point should give 25.5 person-days of transmissibility.

    That reduction of between 5-fold and 6-fold in transmissibility of a vaccinated population versus an unvaccinated population will be behind a considerable part of the way that cases haven't run away in the UK after such a huge relaxation of restrictions.
    5-6 fold reduction is a universe away from the initial projections, where they talked about 1 in 200,000 chance of transmission between a two vaccinated people. There would have been so little of it about within no time, that it would be virtually impossible to actually catch it.

    Instead we are in a situation where plenty of onward transmission is possible, even if it is reduced from an unvaccinated plague spreader after a few days.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,082

    isam said:

    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21

    Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
    I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,446

    FPT:

    Taz said:

    Looks like we need updated vaccines ASAP.....winter is going to be bad.

    Given you’re a sensible commenter on such matters, unlike a few here, and not given to overly melodramatic twaddle why do you say that about winter ?

    Vaccines are being updated and we have been told they can be tweaked. Be interesting to know how it is going.
    The data is showing significant waning of protection after 6 months and double whammy that a break through infected individual is just as infectious as an unvaccinated person. Both of these factors weren't true / thought to be true vs original or alpha variant.

    Add on the start point for the winter will be fairly high levels of covid in society, as we have seen during the low season, i.e. summer + schools out, the background level of covid aren't disappearing like last year.

    We keep being told the vaccines can be tweaked, but it doesn't seem we will get them this winter (MaxPB knows a lot more about this than me).
    The bolded bit is not quite true.

    A breakthrough infection does peak at similar viral loading to an unvaccinated infected person, but drops off a lot faster.

    For example, taking the derived data and adding in a line at a Ct of 30 (about where the threshold of infectivity lies):


    Which implies that a breakthrough-infected person is infectious for about 60% of the length of time that an unvaccinated infected person is. Which does make a difference when we're looking at a population-level R number.

    Add to that the fact that breakthrough infections are considerably rarer than straightforward infections. Say, for argument, that AZ is 70% effective at preventing infections long-term against Delta. We can graphically show that like this:


    So every 10 unvaccinated people exposed to the point where they would expect to be infected should give 145 person-days of transmissibility.
    Every 10 vaccinated people exposed to a similar point should give 25.5 person-days of transmissibility.

    That reduction of between 5-fold and 6-fold in transmissibility of a vaccinated population versus an unvaccinated population will be behind a considerable part of the way that cases haven't run away in the UK after such a huge relaxation of restrictions.
    Excellent post
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Loved that - cheers
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,063
    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans if he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out,
    Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US. I suppose that means Brown, Cameron and May couldn’t have taken us out.

    And May was ‘hand in hand’ with Trump, of course :D

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The population has roughly doubled in size since 9/11. The young in the urban centre never knew life under Islamic radicalism, the old still had recollection from the pre civil war liberal society. Keeping things stable for another decade until those young people were firmly into adulthood may well have been enough to keep the country on the right course forever. Whether it was right or wrong to attempt an occupation in 2001/2 is a wholly different question to the cost benefit analysis of staying or leaving now.
    Which is why I believe that there will be growing unrest and internal resistance to the Taliban after the initial shock of their take over wears off. I'm in no position to suggest time scales but when you throw in local warlord figures and external actors keen to destabilise them...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041

    Scott_xP said:

    You have been reduced to.posting whines by the opposition and the Guardian..your life must be terribly shallow as thats all you ever post about.

    You appear to be posting whines about other posters.

    How shallow is that?
    I just point out how shallow the continual and largely unfounded attacks on Boris are.

    You on the other hand have a self appointed anti brexit whine that starts as soon as you get up and continues till close of play and has gone on since Brexit occurred Most of it, in fact nearly all of it is other people's opinions.. as I said or rather Tim late of this parish said.. Scott' n paste....
    Continual I grant you, but unfounded?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: ministers are set to be told that the plan to start offering Covid booster jabs early next month is very unlikely to happen, and more research is needed into both clinical benefits and the impact on vaccine confidence, JCVI sources say. Story soon.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428323117080977414

    To be 100% clear - the "very unlikely" refers to the start-of-Sept start, not ever.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1428328324477198341?s=20
    There is no excuse for a delay.
    The "Worried about confidence in the vaccines" reasoning seems to have been used a lot by the JCVI despite the UK public confidence in the vaccine being sky high and rock solid.
    They will be far issues with confidence in the the vaccines if the ICU starts overflowing with loads of oldies again.

    Its a super easy sell, urging on the side of caution, we know oldies most at risk and most likely
    group that vaccines won't have produced antibodies / have comprised immune systems.

    And of course we will just hear more and more about Israel, USA and others doing this.
    I have no idea what the JCVI is playing at quite frankly. We've bought the doses, we have the arms willing and ready. We have massive public confidence in the vaccines, the MHRA has given the green light on safety and efficacy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041
    Floater said:

    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    I had a second home in Normandy - the local mayor and others freely admitted that the spending of the Brits (who in this area tended to buy up run down rural stock and rebuild) provided a real help to the local economy
    Thank god someone agrees with me. I thought I had lost it completely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19
    isam said:

    isam said:

    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21

    Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
    I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
    Have you ever listened to "under the cosh" podcast?

    A couple of ex pros talk to mostly other ex-pros, it seems even 10 years ago just incredible behaviour that would be unacceptable in any other work place. Totally standard to have bullying, physical assault, crude (bordering on) racist stereotyping.

    It might not go on at the top EPL teams, but it certainly seems that you get to the likes of the Championship and some pretty appalling behaviour (and loads of unprofessional stuff from the players).
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,171
    edited August 19
    Alistair said:

    School boards are calling DeSantis's bluff in Florida

    https://twitter.com/jayobtv/status/1428203523636932609

    That could well be his presidential hopes going up in smoke.

    Why? As I read it, at the moment these are school boards in predominently Democratic counties around Florida's main cities. That's pretty good for DeSantis' presidential hopes - as far as a Republican electorate is concerned, he's annoying the right people.

    I accept that's a profoundly depressing thing to write - that you win by dividing not by unifying - but in political betting terms, particularly for securing the nomination, that's the reality. It's all about choosing your enemies well.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,965
    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    " ... servicing wealthy incomers."

    You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Since when was the West defined by libertarianism?
    It's always been a central feature of Western democracies.
    Were we particularly libertarian in the 1950s?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532
    isam said:

    isam said:

    This is jaw dropping. The goings on at Chelsea FC youth team in the 90s.

    “ This is a tough read (be warned).

    The court documents, obtained by @TheAthleticUK, about culture of ‘racist bullying’ at Chelsea in the 1990s.

    One coach, Graham Rix, accused of throwing scalding coffee over the head of a black youth-team player.”

    https://twitter.com/dtathletic/status/1428250498465927168?s=21

    Graham Rix, the man who got done for under aged sex. Blow me down with a feather.
    I just can’t get my head round how uncouth and nasty they were. What the coaches are accused of saying is what I am guessing people anonymously post on social media nowadays when black players miss penalties or make mistakes etc - amazing to think they thought they could get away with it, if true of course.
    It might be amazing nowadays but in the 80s or early 90s (and probably before but I wouldnt know) a lot of the areas dominated by young men were like that. Bullying, violence or racism wouldnt have been at all unusual in the army, police, football or rugby. Not necessarily expected, but not surprising at the time either.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,758
    Scott_xP said:

    Pressure mounts further on Dominic Raab as a Tory MP tells me "his position is untenable".

    "Not coming home was his biggest mistake," they say - arguing the foreign secretary should have cut short his holiday several days earlier.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1428328573404844035

    three days on the beach, sunbathing and dreaming
    phone just out of reach, can't hear kabul screaming

    raab's not coming home, not coming home, not coming
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 193
    I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.

    The ZOE analysis is well worth looking into.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/uk-cases-hold-steady

    Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.

    I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    TimT said:

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Alas, this is one of those moments where I agree with the contrarian.
    Likewise
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071

    Alistair said:

    School boards are calling DeSantis's bluff in Florida

    https://twitter.com/jayobtv/status/1428203523636932609

    That could well be his presidential hopes going up in smoke.

    Why? As I read it, at the moment these are school boards in predominently Democratic counties around Florida's main cities. That's pretty good for DeSantis' presidential hopes - as far as a Republican electorate is concerned, he's annoying the right people.

    I accept that's a profoundly depressing thing to write - that you win by dividing not by unifying - but in political betting terms, particularly for securing the nomination, that's the reality. It's all about choosing your enemies well.
    Because now he needs to follow through on his threat to defund them otherwise he looks completely impotent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    I reckon if everyone who has received 2 vaccine doses was boosterised up over the next month cases would drop dramatically.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    Heathener said:

    I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.

    The ZOE analysis is well worth looking into.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/uk-cases-hold-steady

    Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.

    I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.

    Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041

    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    " ... servicing wealthy incomers."

    You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
    Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532
    kjh said:

    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). I also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on the previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    Agree that we could go around in circles without convincing each other. If there was political will it would not be difficult through taxation to make villages dominated by 2nd homes less attractive to 2nd home owners, more available to locals and at the same time generate additional taxes for the local economy. We don't do this because there is no political will, not because it is particularly difficult.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,158

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Most sensible people know us being in Afghanistan was an impossible situation, and it seems even less possible to definitively apportion the blame for what has gone on.

    I suppose Labour have to act outraged about everything, scoring political points is what they need to do to win power.

    Trump’s take on events seems crazy given he wanted troops out earlier. Biden could have scrapped Trump’s plans of he’d wanted to. Blair could have not gone in. Brown, Cameron & May could have taken us out. Hard to see what Boris could have done differently, given we are pegged to the decisions of the US.

    My own view is we shouldn’t meddle in these matters anyway. Not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, anywhere, unless they’re bombing us. Be pacifists. But I suppose it’s not as easy as that either

    The world is a battle of ideas. China's way. The West's way. The Theocrats' way. The Globalists' way. The authoritarians' way.

    If you believe in something you will argue for it, live by its tenets and back that up with force if necessary.

    We may argue for our Western way, but we have not lived by it in recent times , don't intend to in the future and have no stomach for a fight.
    Since when was the West defined by libertarianism?
    It's always been a central feature of Western democracies.
    Were we particularly libertarian in the 1950s?
    Liberal democracy and the principles of the rule of law are very different things to libertarianism. So in answer to your question, no we were not libertarian in the 1950s and neither are we now, thank the Lord.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071

    Alistair said:

    School boards are calling DeSantis's bluff in Florida

    https://twitter.com/jayobtv/status/1428203523636932609

    That could well be his presidential hopes going up in smoke.

    Why? As I read it, at the moment these are school boards in predominently Democratic counties around Florida's main cities. That's pretty good for DeSantis' presidential hopes - as far as a Republican electorate is concerned, he's annoying the right people.

    I accept that's a profoundly depressing thing to write - that you win by dividing not by unifying - but in political betting terms, particularly for securing the nomination, that's the reality. It's all about choosing your enemies well.
    Also Disney have just started requiring masks for everyone over 2 years old. People don't like wealthy corps getting special exemptions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    kjh said:

    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). I also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on the previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    Agree that we could go around in circles without convincing each other
    Alternate PB motto number 357
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,550
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    " ... servicing wealthy incomers."

    You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
    Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
    'Servicing' does have a very gender-specific meaning in that context, at least in animal breeding. I wouldn't pretend to think what the terminology is in escort agencies, mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    I am staring directly at the ruins of the Parthenon, as I contemplate the collapse of western civilisation, and I am about to order a fine Pikri beer

    Life, huh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.

    The ZOE analysis is well worth looking into.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/uk-cases-hold-steady

    Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.

    I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.

    Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
    Even uppish isn't bleak.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    I went shopping this morning and for the first time in a month every single person was wearing a mask inside. Obviously anecdotal, but I'm not alone in being concerned at the emerging data.

    The ZOE analysis is well worth looking into.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/uk-cases-hold-steady

    Anyway, I apologise that this isn't the mood music that some wish to read about. But what is great leadership but warning people about the true dangers ahead? In this regard Churchill and Johnson are at opposite ends of the life spectrum. The former was frequently accused of being a doom-mongerer. The latter is full of gloss.

    I think we have at least two more years of this pandemic and there will be some bleak times.

    Cases flat after all legal restrictions lifted? Doesn't seem that bleak to me.
    A month of normal life will already have made a big difference to the mental (and physical) health of tens of millions even if somehow we do need a winter lockdown of some sort. And even in the winter lockdown scenario it is extremely likely we get at least another couple of months of normality from here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Chip shortages still massive problem and now even hitting the best prepared companies (who had decent stockpiles)

    Toyota to cut global production by 40%

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58266794
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    Another JCVI source said a particular worry was the potential impact of pushing third vaccinations on a public within which the take-up of other vaccinations, for example for children and teenagers, had “dropped off a cliff” since the start of the pandemic.

    FFsake

    What fresh hell is this ?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,697

    FPT:

    Taz said:

    Looks like we need updated vaccines ASAP.....winter is going to be bad.

    Given you’re a sensible commenter on such matters, unlike a few here, and not given to overly melodramatic twaddle why do you say that about winter ?

    Vaccines are being updated and we have been told they can be tweaked. Be interesting to know how it is going.
    The data is showing significant waning of protection after 6 months and double whammy that a break through infected individual is just as infectious as an unvaccinated person. Both of these factors weren't true / thought to be true vs original or alpha variant.

    Add on the start point for the winter will be fairly high levels of covid in society, as we have seen during the low season, i.e. summer + schools out, the background level of covid aren't disappearing like last year.

    We keep being told the vaccines can be tweaked, but it doesn't seem we will get them this winter (MaxPB knows a lot more about this than me).
    The bolded bit is not quite true.

    A breakthrough infection does peak at similar viral loading to an unvaccinated infected person, but drops off a lot faster.

    For example, taking the derived data and adding in a line at a Ct of 30 (about where the threshold of infectivity lies):


    Which implies that a breakthrough-infected person is infectious for about 60% of the length of time that an unvaccinated infected person is. Which does make a difference when we're looking at a population-level R number.

    Add to that the fact that breakthrough infections are considerably rarer than straightforward infections. Say, for argument, that AZ is 70% effective at preventing infections long-term against Delta. We can graphically show that like this:


    So every 10 unvaccinated people exposed to the point where they would expect to be infected should give 145 person-days of transmissibility.
    Every 10 vaccinated people exposed to a similar point should give 25.5 person-days of transmissibility.

    That reduction of between 5-fold and 6-fold in transmissibility of a vaccinated population versus an unvaccinated population will be behind a considerable part of the way that cases haven't run away in the UK after such a huge relaxation of restrictions.
    5-6 fold reduction is a universe away from the initial projections, where they talked about 1 in 200,000 chance of transmission between a two vaccinated people. There would have been so little of it about within no time, that it would be virtually impossible to actually catch it.

    Instead we are in a situation where plenty of onward transmission is possible, even if it is reduced from an unvaccinated plague spreader after a few days.
    But it does imply that following boosters for some and the remaining immunologically naive population going through infection-recovery that we will be very close to the virus being unable to ever explode out again.

    Yes, it's tough luck on the unvaxxed, but when the entire population is no longer immunologically naive, it won't take much increase in resistance for the transmissibility impairment population-wide to exceed the R0 of even Delta.

    It seems as though vaccination-plus infection provides even greater resistance, so you wouldn't need a very high proportion of the vaxxed population to get breakthrough infections on top of the unvaccinated to all get it for the population-wide transmission reduction to finally exceed R0 and the possibility of significant outbreaks to go away.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,532

    Chip shortages still massive problem and now even hitting the best prepared companies (who had decent stockpiles)

    Toyota to cut global production by 40%

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58266794

    Chicken shortages at Nando as well. I think it is a lefty conspiracy to deny us fast food.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,041
    edited August 19

    kjh said:

    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). I also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on the previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    Agree that we could go around in circles without convincing each other. If there was political will it would not be difficult through taxation to make villages dominated by 2nd homes less attractive to 2nd home owners, more available to locals and at the same time generate additional taxes for the local economy. We don't do this because there is no political will, not because it is particularly difficult.
    I guess the important thing is, is it desirable for the local economy to introduce these changes. If the situation is as @YBarddCwsc described on the previous thread with welsh villages empty outside of the peak holiday season, with a lack of jobs and sky high property prices then it is. However if it is 2nd home owners providing a booming economy for locals then it isn't.

    PS the locals around Southwold take the piss out of the 2nd home owners. There is an online spoof newspaper, whose name I can't remember which is very funny.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    Might not be long left for Geronimo

    https://video.nest.com/live/ccNmGOpCQS
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692
    Some interesting alternative views on the need for boosters. And surprise, surprise August sees rate of vaccines slow down in Spain.

    https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-08-13/coronavirus-crisis-in-spain-will-nursing-home-residents-need-a-third-covid-19-vaccine-shot.html

    "This rise in infections has opened a debate about whether a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is needed. More than seven months have passed since the first shots were administered to nursing home residents in Spain, and there are questions about whether the vaccines continue to provide the same level of protection. For now, there are no clear answers. Several investigations are trying to assess how the immune system responds to the coronavirus and its mutations, but so far, there is no evidence that backs the use of a third booster shot. People with compromised immune systems, such as cancer patients, however, are an exception, but in this case, a third dose is recommended not to increase protection, but rather because their defense systems do not respond effectively enough to the two shots.


    https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-08-17/spain-at-risk-of-missing-august-vaccination-target-as-rate-of-immunization-drive-slows.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Pulpstar said:

    Another JCVI source said a particular worry was the potential impact of pushing third vaccinations on a public within which the take-up of other vaccinations, for example for children and teenagers, had “dropped off a cliff” since the start of the pandemic.

    FFsake

    What fresh hell is this ?

    It feels like desperately trying to find a reason to justify not following the same path of everybody else (and the science)....the sort of excuses a teenager comes up with as why they can't tidy their room.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,965
    edited August 19
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    FPT I don't usually carry over, but I thought the below was amusing (to me at least). Also responded to you @noneoftheabove re the questions you asked about other things in the town for locals on previous thread. Should have added though that although most of the services you asked about actually don't exist, those that do would not be staffed by people from the town because they can't afford to live in the town (the discussion has now gone around in a circle). The services that are supplied are supplied by outside villagers who own the shops etc in the town which is occupied by the 2nd home owners who make up the majority of the residents.

    It is like a holiday village for the posh I guess.



    OK so to defend my position on Southwold I did a google search and found the following headlines describing Southwold:

    East Anglian Times - Don't call us snobs
    The Daily Mail - Snooty-on-sea
    The Telegraph - Is Southwold our snobbiest town?
    The Sun - If you don't live here f**k off after beauty spot becomes celeb hot spot
    Mumsnet - Snobbiest place in the UK

    Get the picture.

    I must admit that I assumed Southwold was like dozens of similar pretty areas with lots of 2nd homes around the country, and maybe it still it.

    I still stick to my point that changes are not always as simple as people think and not always desirable for the local economy which depends on the income from servicing wealthy incomers.

    " ... servicing wealthy incomers."

    You sound like the proprietor of a high class escort agency.
    Seeing as I own one of the properties wouldn't that make me a punter? Shudder!
    Despite your vigorous defence of second homes against the badass of pb.com, my point was Tim Farron was running a risk here, as every second Lib Dem in Twickenham or Richmond or Surbiton will have a second home.

    There is a reason why campaigns against second homes are politically brave .....

    https://tinyurl.com/4fbbsd6a

    https://tinyurl.com/jndz4jp6

    .... even if you are a Corbynista.

    And the only reason I have not gone after Tory MPs is I expect most own > 2 homes.
This discussion has been closed.