Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Maybe we should send Ghani and his cash back to the Taliban.
The rumour about Ghani started from Russian sources, ie put a burn notice on it until verification. If he did escape with 10s or 100s of millions the Biden administration will leak it.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Perhaps we should leave first then.
I'm rather more sympathetic to Biden than most but do wonder at the quality of decisions making in WDC - Blinken seems to be very lightweight.
It all depends on whether we are ready to pull our people out before the US leave. The Guardian was suggesting we are behind their schedule.
Lots of unknowns.
I would suspect that WDC would try to make up for their previous mistakes by attempting to be a bit more organised and communicative than they have been previously.
Getting the evacuation done competently would at least allow the "it wasn't our fault, the Afghans government and military were useless" line to be used with more ease.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
The shortages I have seen are mostly category shortages while other items have been fully stocked. Which maybe suggests missed deliveries.
The few empty shelves I’ve been effected by at the local Sainsbury’s I’ve managed to find the missing item by wandering over the car park to M&S. Which suggests to me a delivery problem.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
If you need to wear a mask wear a proper one.
My second favourite covid theatre example is people who still persist in wearing them beneath their chins. It isn't a legal requirement now. What is the point?
We continue to not mention masks in our shop. No one cares. Our sales are up on usual summer levels.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Striking out "climate change is real" at their Party conference may well rebound on them. The election is being fought against a backdrop of insane record temperatures across BC months back, and now rampant forest fires. And a drought in the Prairies which has left farmers without winter feed. And the West is where the Tories win most of their seats.
They may be boxed in by that too.
Alberta is oil country, and that's the basis of their wealth, and the Tories draw so much of their base from there.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
I have been studying the data from Israel carefully, including this piece which has been circulating with much breathless excitement on here.
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
That was 1915.
"I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted."
Really.
How about instead of talking shit, you tell the people on this board why it is wrong?
Or, is this like your BA pilots dropping dead after being vaccinated story?
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
If you need to wear a mask wear a proper one.
My second favourite covid theatre example is people who still persist in wearing them beneath their chins. It isn't a legal requirement now. What is the point?
We continue to not mention masks in our shop. No one cares. Our sales are up on usual summer levels.
Is there any evidence that second hand books with a dollop of peri-peri sauce are a tasty chicken substitute?
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
The shortages I have seen are mostly category shortages while other items have been fully stocked. Which maybe suggests missed deliveries.
The few empty shelves I’ve been effected by at the local Sainsbury’s I’ve managed to find the missing item by wandering over the car park to M&S. Which suggests to me a delivery problem.
Lidl had a few shelves empty but overall it was fine.I wonder if people are buying more of their regular purchases just in case leading to a n artificial shortage. We have stocked up on a few things just in case...
And, to be honest, I don't think I'd vote for independence even if a fancy economist demonstrated it would increase prosperity. Some things are more important than money.
What would persuade you?
If the UK rejoined the EU then I'd probably shift back to the position I think I had in 2014 - I'd regret it if it happened, but I wouldn't be overly opposed as the practical impacts would be minimised by joint membership of the EU (I didn't think Scotland would have been immediately ejected from the EU).
Briefly after the Brexit referendum I was in favour of Scottish independence, on the basis that if it came to a forced choice between the British Union and the European Union I'd rather be in the European one - but after years of having the reality of what that would mean in terms of a border on the island of Britain driven home to me by the example of the implications of Brexit on Northern Ireland's borders I'm now firmly against Scottish independence on an anti-new-border basis.
I don't like borders. I find it very hard to envisage any circumstances in which I would vote for the creation of a new one.
A new border means a curtailment of my freedom. It means an increase in mind-numbingly pointless bureaucracy. And for what? Because one group have so successfully othered another group of people purely on the basis of where they were born that they aren't willing to cooperate with them.
Not for me thanks.
I would come to the same conclusion from a different angle. The Union is indeed in the worst state it has been since the 18th C, as Ciaran Martin said. Brexit is both a cause and a symptom of that situation. But it is a union of 300 years. We need to take a longer view IMO, and hopefully it can be repaired.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Well, at least the "reassuringly" anti-Woke party, the Taliban are on the rise
Hilariously they've managed to Wokewash themselves by saying they will form an "inclusive" government.
They seemed to even fool General Sir Nick Carter with it:
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Maybe we should send Ghani and his cash back to the Taliban.
The rumour about Ghani started from Russian sources, ie put a burn notice on it until verification. If he did escape with 10s or 100s of millions the Biden administration will leak it.
If the rumour is true, then where did the money go?
He’s apparently been let into the UAE on humanitarian grounds, but there’s no way he walked through Dubai Airport with a couple of *tons* of Benjamins in his luggage!
The original rumour was that he’s gone to Tajikistan, then it was Turkmenistan, then Oman, then UAE. Maybe he’s been on a cash-drop spree around the region?
Interesting line up description on QT, given usual party labels, but I suppose they'd no other option James Cleverly - Conservative Lisa Nandy - Labour Rory Stewart - Former minister Nelufar Hedayat - Journalist Mehdi Hasan - Broadcaster
I also wonder if broadcaster outranks journalist or vice versa.
Medhi Hasan argued that the 7/7 bombers had adapted well to English culture because "they played cricket"
He's also been on record as referring to non-Muslims as "cattle".
Is that because they have particularly attractive mammary glands?
I wonder if a farmer ever sang "Handsome Devil" to a cow he was a milkin'
Statistically, it's quite likely...
There's a recognised category of milking song in the Gaelic, apparently to keep both the milker and the milch-coo contented:
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
Experiences can be very different. From my experience on the train it was closer to 50% for example. I don't see the harm in what you term Covid theatre - if I'm asked to put on one whilst transitioning from place to place in an establishment I'll follow their rules if it makes others comfortable enough. That I have the option to not bother without worry makes it far less of an imposition.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
It was a joy to go to my favourite pub/eaterie last week with nary a mask in sight. Truly felt back to normal. Have also stopped the pointless hand sanitizer every 6 overs at cricket.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Maybe we should send Ghani and his cash back to the Taliban.
The rumour about Ghani started from Russian sources, ie put a burn notice on it until verification. If he did escape with 10s or 100s of millions the Biden administration will leak it.
Are the rumours about tensions between the the US and UK troops of a similar nature?
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
There is no next step if people cannot travel to the airport. The majority of those eligible to get out are not at the airport.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
Experiences can be very different. From my experience on the train it was closer to 50% for example. I don't see the harm in what you term Covid theatre - if I'm asked to put on one whilst transitioning from place to place in an establishment I'll follow their rules if it makes others comfortable enough. That I have the option to not bother without worry makes it far less of an imposition.
Interesting. A mate has a theory that most people who still wear them are doing it because they fear confrontation. I suspect there is a lot of truth in this.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
I hope I’m wrong, but if I were looking for solidity at three I’m thinking I wouldn’t have picked Malan. Hildreth would have been a more sensible choice despite his age. Or maybe Gubbins at Hampshire.
I was thinking they have Root put on a moustache and pretend to be a new player, so he could have two goes at bat (and for fielding just have him off 'injured'), but he'd just end up having to bat at both ends as everyone else gets out.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
True, but it would still be good to see the back of Trudeau after 6 years in office.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
With how many British lives at risk in a lawless area would be worth authorising a special forces operation to rescue them? 10? 20? 50? What about 3,000.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
If you need to wear a mask wear a proper one.
My second favourite covid theatre example is people who still persist in wearing them beneath their chins. It isn't a legal requirement now. What is the point?
We continue to not mention masks in our shop. No one cares. Our sales are up on usual summer levels.
Is there any evidence that second hand books with a dollop of peri-peri sauce are a tasty chicken substitute?
Antiquarian books, I'll have you know, need no bothering from dollops of sauce....
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
The shortages I have seen are mostly category shortages while other items have been fully stocked. Which maybe suggests missed deliveries.
The few empty shelves I’ve been effected by at the local Sainsbury’s I’ve managed to find the missing item by wandering over the car park to M&S. Which suggests to me a delivery problem.
Lidl had a few shelves empty but overall it was fine.I wonder if people are buying more of their regular purchases just in case leading to a n artificial shortage. We have stocked up on a few things just in case...
How much of it is seasonal? In a usual August, there’s probably a handful more million people not in the country, than is the case this year. The supermarkets would have placed their orders months ago without knowing what the situation would be.
It looks like a lot of minor effects combining into a bigger one, watching from afar.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
Experiences can be very different. From my experience on the train it was closer to 50% for example. I don't see the harm in what you term Covid theatre - if I'm asked to put on one whilst transitioning from place to place in an establishment I'll follow their rules if it makes others comfortable enough. That I have the option to not bother without worry makes it far less of an imposition.
Interesting. A mate has a theory that most people who still wear them are doing it because they fear confrontation. I suspect there is a lot of truth in this.
Perhaps. Though my counter theory is that in fact people fear confrontation to tell people to put one on if they are not, should they defy the signs asking them to etc. The days of confident haranguing I'd think are gone - no one was ever going to be able to arrest all non-compliers, but the formal change in approach does undercut any moral policing. Moral encouragement gets the level of compliance now, which is good, but there's no anxiety in not complying.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
So you’re saying a Sainsbury’s has pasta problem on to the next store?
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
It was a joy to go to my favourite pub/eaterie last week with nary a mask in sight. Truly felt back to normal. Have also stopped the pointless hand sanitizer every 6 overs at cricket.
YES! The cricket hand sanitization was infuriating. Especially if you'd injured yourself fielding and the alcohol stung.....
We even had a proper tea on Sunday. It made my 6 runs batting at no. 4 (embarrassingly that still made me the 4th highest scorer in the team) somewhat less infuriating. With performances like that I'm worried I might get a call from the ECB....
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
Experiences can be very different. From my experience on the train it was closer to 50% for example. I don't see the harm in what you term Covid theatre - if I'm asked to put on one whilst transitioning from place to place in an establishment I'll follow their rules if it makes others comfortable enough. That I have the option to not bother without worry makes it far less of an imposition.
Interesting. A mate has a theory that most people who still wear them are doing it because they fear confrontation. I suspect there is a lot of truth in this.
Perhaps. Though my counter theory is that in fact people fear confrontation to tell people to put one on if they are not, should they defy the signs asking them to etc. The days of confident haranguing I'd think are gone - no one was ever going to be able to arrest all non-compliers, but the formal change in approach does undercut any moral policing. Moral encouragement gets the level of compliance now, which is good, but there's no anxiety in not complying.
Indeed. I find a nice big smile diffuses the very occasional judgemental looks from those still wearing masks quite well.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
With how many British lives at risk in a lawless area would be worth authorising a special forces operation to rescue them? 10? 20? 50? What about 3,000.
They got a few hundred out of Libya, which was a massive operation.
I remember poor Billy Hague sent on TV to answer why the chartered flights to evacuate the embassy staff were still on the ground in the UK - the truth was that they were waiting for the Hereford Branch of the Diplomatic Service to gather their kit and get on the plane.
It all became clear a few days later, when a couple of Hercules landed in the middle of the desert, on a makeshift runway, to evacuate Western oil workers.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
The shortages I have seen are mostly category shortages while other items have been fully stocked. Which maybe suggests missed deliveries.
The few empty shelves I’ve been effected by at the local Sainsbury’s I’ve managed to find the missing item by wandering over the car park to M&S. Which suggests to me a delivery problem.
Lidl had a few shelves empty but overall it was fine.I wonder if people are buying more of their regular purchases just in case leading to a n artificial shortage. We have stocked up on a few things just in case...
How much of it is seasonal? In a usual August, there’s probably a handful more million people not in the country, than is the case this year. The supermarkets would have placed their orders months ago without knowing what the situation would be.
It looks like a lot of minor effects combining into a bigger one, watching from afar.
I suspect there may be an element of seasonality in that driver shortages have reduced resilience in the supply chains. Normally if you get extra demand you can pay overtime to get the extra stuff delivered. But if they are already over capacity they can't do that.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Hmmm, decent jump in Pillar 2 tests in Scotland - 19000 ish done when it's normally been a pretty consistent 12,000 a day over the last month (9,000 on weekends)
So more tests=more cases?
In which case I wouldn’t be unduly alarmed. Keep on those hospitalisation numbers because as those people who know what they're talking about keep telling us, that’s the key.
At a 7.5% positivity rate that is still pretty spicey.
I, as ever, remain glued to the hospital admissions and ventilator numbers.
You've got schools to come back too. Well the case effect to feed through also.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Let's get the people already at the airport out, and then worry about the next step, but the probability of the US or anyone else reoccupying Afghan territory any time soon is IMO precisely zero.
With how many British lives at risk in a lawless area would be worth authorising a special forces operation to rescue them? 10? 20? 50? What about 3,000.
They got a few hundred out of Libya, which was a massive operation.
I remember poor Billy Hague sent on TV to ask why the chartered flights to evacuate the embassy staff were still on the ground - the truth was that they were waiting for the Hereford Branch of the Diplomatic Service to gather their kit and get on the plane.
What a monumental cluster that we’re even having to talk about this. But surely by now there are a bunch of such gents figuring out an extraction plan for British citizens stranded outside of Kabul.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released three studies on Wednesday that federal officials said provided evidence that booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus vaccines would be needed by all Americans in the coming months.
NYTimes
Looks like US is heading towards booster shots this winter.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
I have been studying the data from Israel carefully, including this piece which has been circulating with much breathless excitement on here.
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
That was 1915.
But you were discussing this all with the wrong denominator earlier. Rather than “percentage of those hospitalised that are vaccinated,” it is necessary to look at “percentage of those vaccinated that are hospitalised.”
You don’t get the latter from the former; it was an irrelevant datum.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that you can take the virus and live. We know already that even in its infancy it was likely to kill c. 3% give or take of those infected.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
3%? Where did you get that from? It’s as inaccurate in the other direction as the claimed 0.2% IFR was from the denialists.
The IFR has to be considerably lower than the CFR, as we know we do not pick up anywhere near 100% of infections as cases.
The current CFR is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.3%. Over and above the decrease in cases in the first place.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that you can take the virus and live. We know already that even in its infancy it was likely to kill c. 3% give or take of those infected.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
3%? Where did you get that from? It’s as inaccurate in the other direction as the claimed 0.2% IFR was from the denialists.
The IFR has to be considerably lower than the CFR, as we know we do not pick up anywhere near 100% of infections as cases.
The current CFR is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.3%. Over and above the decrease in cases in the first place.
This CFR is based on hospitals not being overwhelmed.
Comments
They aren't fighting hard enough or publicly enough.
I would suspect that WDC would try to make up for their previous mistakes by attempting to be a bit more organised and communicative than they have been previously.
Getting the evacuation done competently would at least allow the "it wasn't our fault, the Afghans government and military were useless" line to be used with more ease.
We continue to not mention masks in our shop. No one cares. Our sales are up on usual summer levels.
Alberta is oil country, and that's the basis of their wealth, and the Tories draw so much of their base from there.
Really.
How about instead of talking shit, you tell the people on this board why it is wrong?
Or, is this like your BA pilots dropping dead after being vaccinated story?
They seemed to even fool General Sir Nick Carter with it:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2021/08/18/taliban-pledged-inclusive-one-reason-one-reason-troll-west/
He’s apparently been let into the UAE on humanitarian grounds, but there’s no way he walked through Dubai Airport with a couple of *tons* of Benjamins in his luggage!
The original rumour was that he’s gone to Tajikistan, then it was Turkmenistan, then Oman, then UAE. Maybe he’s been on a cash-drop spree around the region?
https://learngaelic.scot/littlebylittle/songs/crodh/index.jsp
I see his average is now exactly 50.00
It looks like a lot of minor effects combining into a bigger one, watching from afar.
We even had a proper tea on Sunday. It made my 6 runs batting at no. 4 (embarrassingly that still made me the 4th highest scorer in the team) somewhat less infuriating. With performances like that I'm worried I might get a call from the ECB....
I'd say it's about 5-10%.
I remember poor Billy Hague sent on TV to answer why the chartered flights to evacuate the embassy staff were still on the ground in the UK - the truth was that they were waiting for the Hereford Branch of the Diplomatic Service to gather their kit and get on the plane.
It all became clear a few days later, when a couple of Hercules landed in the middle of the desert, on a makeshift runway, to evacuate Western oil workers.
New Thread
NYTimes
Looks like US is heading towards booster shots this winter.
Rather than “percentage of those hospitalised that are vaccinated,” it is necessary to look at “percentage of those vaccinated that are hospitalised.”
You don’t get the latter from the former; it was an irrelevant datum.
Where did you get that from?
It’s as inaccurate in the other direction as the claimed 0.2% IFR was from the denialists.
The IFR has to be considerably lower than the CFR, as we know we do not pick up anywhere near 100% of infections as cases.
The current CFR is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.3%.
Over and above the decrease in cases in the first place.