Read on the BBC that last time the Taliban were in power only three countries officially recognised them - Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. I expect they'll manage better than that this time.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
Minimising social contact isn't freedom - it's the opposite of freedom.
“My total loss of life in my recent car crash is no barrier to my bid for Olympic boxing gold, says mouldering corpse in tomb during imaginary conversation with bereaved wife”
I suppose technically nothing is a barrier to independence, just to the comfortableness of that independence.
True. ‘Look, ok, we will be eating moss and small pieces of dung for ten years but we can do it. We can go Indy. The big pieces of dung will be sold to Ireland, obvs’
But Scotland will always have a deficit as long as RUK continues to send them more money than they make. There is no disincentive not to run up a massive deficit, because it will be covered by RUK.
There is quite a disincentive if you simultaneously wish to make a sound fiscal case for Scottish independence. These deficit stats are hallucinatory in their awfulness. The UK is bad enough, but we have our own bank and currency and a credit history several centuries long
Indy Scotland would be like ‘Indy Cambodia’ in 1975, or ‘Indy Venezuela’ last week
Well 1) many Scots simply don't believe these figures (see malcolmg), so they don't provide much of a disincentive to vote Yes, but more importantly 2) A newly independent Scotland would presumably simply start living within its means. Scotland spends more than RUK per head because it can - we give it that money - not because it has to. There'll be a big hit to public spending - it'll be a shock to the subsidy junkies - but it would be able to function. (Assuming there's someone prepared to take on the challenge, of course!) Oh, and 3) it doesn't really matter - these are all problems to be faced *after* independence. The point of the SNP is presumably to get to independence - once there, mission accomplished: the future is somebody else's challenge, surely?
I doubt an independent Scotland would start living within its means initially.
Because many Nats believe that Scotland is subsidising England and would be much richer if independent.
They're not going to accept tax rises and spending cuts.
Now tax rises and spending cuts might be forced upon Scotland very quickly but as you say that would be someone else's problem.
If newly Scotland didn’t immediately impose enormous tax rises and huge spending cuts no one would lend to it, and it would default
It might default anyway, because of the near-intractable currency/bank problem
FWIW I have no doubt an Indy Scotland would eventually prosper, albeit in a modest way (it’s too late for them to copy the Irish model, and the oil has gone) but it would be a deeply painful 10-15 years on the way there
Very hard to see how they could prosper even in 10-15 years if they spend the first few of them slashing public expenditure and trying to join the EU, and then have to install an EU external border at Gretna Green.
A fair point. But you’re a Remainer and I’m a Brexiteer. I intrinsically believe sovereign nations can adapt faster and better than is generally accepted, you fear the unknown economic future more than me
I can already see unexpected but encouraging green Brexit shoots in northern England, as an example
That said, the maddest of Nats outdo the worst of the Panglossian Brexiteers, in their fatuous denial of obvious truths. Scottish Indy would be bloody painful, just as Brexit has been endless arse-ache. It is inevitable
The problem, Leon, is what do they do about the currency? There is no answer to that question at all, so far as I can see. The political answer - sterlingisation - risks national bankruptcy.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
Minimising social contact isn't freedom - it's the opposite of freedom.
And not without its own set of prices and risks. Just look at the drug overdose, domestic violence and suicide numbers.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
An experiment taught monkeys to use rudimentary currency, with different colour disks being used to buy nuts, berries etc.
The researchers were astonishing when, unprompted, a male monkey left one of his disks in possession of a female monkey after sex, and the female cashed it in for food.
The monkeys had invented a kind of prostitution.
Something similar has been seen in penguins, trading the stones they use to build nests for sex.
It looks as though the 2021 contest in Canada will be plagued by daily "rolling" polls which are as much use as something that's of no use somewhere where it's even less useful.
Mainstreet Research and EKOS look to be doing daily rolling polls which I'm inclined to ignore. Abacus has a poll with the Liberals on 33%, the Conservatives on 28% and NDP on 22% (a decent number for them).
As always, I follow the numbers in Ontario and Quebec with particular interest as 200 of the 338 ridings are in these two provinces.
In Ontario, Abacus has the Liberals leading the Conservatives 36-30 with the NDP on 24%. The numbers in October 2019 were 41.5% for the Libs, 33% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP so I make that a 1.25% swing from Liberal to Conservative with a 5% swing from Conservative to NDP and 6.25% from Liberal to NDP.
Remember, half the Liberal caucus comes from Ontario so this is the battleground for Trudeau.
In Quebec, Liberals 34%, BQ 31%, Conservative 14%, NDP 10% and Greens 8%. The Greens are up 3.5%, the Conservatives down 2 and BQ down 1.5 so not a huge amount of change. The 78 seats in the province split Liberals 35, BQ 32, Conservatives 10 and NDP 1.
The third biggest province is British Columbia which brings 42 ridings to the table. Last time, the Conservatives won 34% and 17 seats. The Liberals got 11 seats on 26% and the NDP 11 seats on 24.5% with the Greens winning 2 seats on 12.5% and a single Independent.
Abacus has a statistical tie with Liberals on 31%, Conservatives on 30% and NDP on 29%. That's a 4.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal so any Conservative gains in Ontario would be offset by losses in British Columbia.
The NDP look on course for an improved showing nationally after polling just 16% last time and dropping from 39 to 24.
They won't emulate the result achieved by Jack Layton in 2013 but could well have their second best ever result and could see them winning 50 seats.
Thanks for that Stodge. Punters may like to know there is a daily prrojection on 338canada.com. Today it shows Libs winning 162, Tories 114, NDP 35, BQ 25 and Greens 2. Also Nova Scotia went to the polls yesterday. An upset win for the opposition Tories. A breakthrough in the Maritimes is vital if they are to get near power. However, they ran on the health service. (Red Tory was originally coined in Atlantic Canada). This is how they can win. At odds, though, with the climate change denying, God and guns, no masks of the Party further west.
Interesting line up description on QT, given usual party labels, but I suppose they'd no other option James Cleverly - Conservative Lisa Nandy - Labour Rory Stewart - Former minister Nelufar Hedayat - Journalist Mehdi Hasan - Broadcaster
I also wonder if broadcaster outranks journalist or vice versa.
Medhi Hasan argued that the 7/7 bombers had adapted well to English culture because "they played cricket"
He's also been on record as referring to non-Muslims as "cattle".
Is that because they have particularly attractive mammary glands?
And, to be honest, I don't think I'd vote for independence even if a fancy economist demonstrated it would increase prosperity. Some things are more important than money.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decades long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not bring the AfD into government.
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response
The SPD are in coalition with Linke In Bremen and Thuringia and with the Greens In Hamburg and Rhineland-Palatinate (where the FDP is also in the state Government).
The AfD are not in any State Govenrment.
It's now far from unrealistic the SPD will win the most votes and seats and that would be the best time since 2002. If so, Olaf Scholz would become the first non-CDU Chancellor since Gerhard Schroder.
The other point the CDU/CSU have never served as the junior members of a coalition Government. They have either led the Government or gone into Opposition.
Can you see a party like that agreeing to be somebody else's junior partner after 16 years of Government? I suspect if they suffer their worst ever election result the Union will go into opposition voluntarily and open the door for a non-Union Government of some form.
The other question is whether the SPD will not only gain enough votes to outpoll the Union but whether they will take enough from Linke to exclude the latter from the Bundestag?
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
If 100% of people were vaccinated, then 100% of people in hospital would be vaccinated. The statistic sounds scary but doesn't mean much in isolation.
Exactly. Most people involved in road accidents were wearing seatbelts.
It's worse than that: sober people have five-times as many accidents as drunks!
Puppies also kill more humans in the US than either rattlesnakes or sharks. But I think I am going to steal your statistic for my workshops. I think it will be most useful in both the risk analysis and the metrics segments.
Interesting line up description on QT, given usual party labels, but I suppose they'd no other option James Cleverly - Conservative Lisa Nandy - Labour Rory Stewart - Former minister Nelufar Hedayat - Journalist Mehdi Hasan - Broadcaster
I also wonder if broadcaster outranks journalist or vice versa.
Medhi Hasan argued that the 7/7 bombers had adapted well to English culture because "they played cricket"
He's also been on record as referring to non-Muslims as "cattle".
Is that because they have particularly attractive mammary glands?
I wonder if a farmer ever sang "Handsome Devil" to a cow he was a milkin'
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
Interesting line up description on QT, given usual party labels, but I suppose they'd no other option James Cleverly - Conservative Lisa Nandy - Labour Rory Stewart - Former minister Nelufar Hedayat - Journalist Mehdi Hasan - Broadcaster
I also wonder if broadcaster outranks journalist or vice versa.
Medhi Hasan argued that the 7/7 bombers had adapted well to English culture because "they played cricket"
He's also been on record as referring to non-Muslims as "cattle".
Is that because they have particularly attractive mammary glands?
I wonder if a farmer ever sang "Handsome Devil" to a cow he was a milkin'
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
“My total loss of life in my recent car crash is no barrier to my bid for Olympic boxing gold, says mouldering corpse in tomb during imaginary conversation with bereaved wife”
I suppose technically nothing is a barrier to independence, just to the comfortableness of that independence.
IFS reckon Scotland's structural deficit once the Covid spending plays out will be 9% against the UK's 3%. An independent Scotland would have to bring its deficit down to a similar amount. Which I see is the same level of cut as that in the UK after 2010, following the Great Financial Crash. Definitely painful, but could be afforded.
HELLO. WHAT THE FUCK HAS HAPPENED TO CASES IN SCOTLAND? THANK YOU.
Smelly kids have gone back to school.
No, the surge in the Specimen date figures starts on the 16th. That would have been first day back at the earliest so schools going back can't be the cause. THE EFFECT OF SCHOOLS RETURNING IS STILL TO HAPPEN
HELLO. WHAT THE FUCK HAS HAPPENED TO CASES IN SCOTLAND? THANK YOU.
Smelly kids have gone back to school.
No, the surge in the Specimen date figures starts on the 16th. That would have been first day back at the earliest so schools going back can't be the cause. THE EFFECT OF SCHOOLS RETURNING IS STILL TO HAPPEN
Did you test children prior to their returning to school, as will be happening in England? Because that would inevitably pick up many asymptomatic cases. That would also explain the coincidence of dates.
‘SNP would likely lose IndyRef2 court battle, says ex-government adviser’ - Professor Ciaran Martin said Westminster could change the law if Holyrood pull off a "surprise win" in the courts
… Prof Martin said: “Holyrood will begin to legislate for a referendum anyway, probably at some point next year, and it will likely end up in court. I think, but I’m not a lawyer nor can anyone predict court cases with confidence, but I think the Scottish Government will lose.” He added that even if a referendum is granted in court, there could be other obstacles put in the way of another vote. “Ultimately, I think that even if they pull off a surprise win, Westminster could change the law, they could refuse to recognise the result or unionists could boycott the vote,” he said.
“The union in 2021 is in better shape than in 2020, but apart from that the prospects for it are in worst shape than any time, I would venture, since the 1760s,” he said.
“It’s not even, in my view, better than it was on the morning of September 19 2014 (the day after the first referendum).”
The former civil servant said the 45% vote in favour of independence in 2014 was an “astonishing figure”, adding: “That seems to have established a floor, not a ceiling in terms of support for independence.”
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decades long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not bring the AfD into government.
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response
The SPD are in coalition with Linke In Bremen and Thuringia and with the Greens In Hamburg and Rhineland-Palatinate (where the FDP is also in the state Government).
The AfD are not in any State Govenrment.
It's now far from unrealistic the SPD will win the most votes and seats and that would be the best time since 2002. If so, Olaf Scholz would become the first non-CDU Chancellor since Gerhard Schroder.
The other point the CDU/CSU have never served as the junior members of a coalition Government. They have either led the Government or gone into Opposition.
Can you see a party like that agreeing to be somebody else's junior partner after 16 years of Government? I suspect if they suffer their worst ever election result the Union will go into opposition voluntarily and open the door for a non-Union Government of some form.
The other question is whether the SPD will not only gain enough votes to outpoll the Union but whether they will take enough from Linke to exclude the latter from the Bundestag?
Those are state governments, if we get the first SPD-Green-Linke national government then inevitably in due course we will get the first Union-FDP-AfD government too. The taboo will have been broken (the AfD already supported the FDP in Berlin, it is the Union that has so far held out from dealing with them).
If the Union are largest party they will expect to lead the government again, even if that means adding the FDP or Greens to to the SPD.
If the SPD are largest party then yes the Union may agree to go into opposition and the taboo will still not be broken if the SPD do a deal with the Greens and FDP not Linke but only if those circumstances arise. Of course if the SPD did gain enough votes from Linke to exclude them from the Bundestag then an SPD and Greens and FDP coalition might be on the cards if the FDP agreed even if the Union win most seats
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Isn’t that hospitalisation figure just a by-product of the fact that so many of the at-risk group have been vaccinated?
Yes, of course it is. Utterly meaningless without considering the prior risk profile.
Hospitalisations, deaths and case numbers are all rising I'm afraid.
We can try to pretend otherwise. Like Canute holding back the tide.
It all depends how far they all rise (which is a fairly big "known unknown"). Case numbers themselves don't matter, beyond being a bit of a leading indicator for the hospitalisation/death graphs.
I think we are probably stuck with close to the current CFR now (I think it's around 0.3% although this is using the magic PHE 28 day measure, which is almost certainly an overestimate). Whilst population immunity should still be rising as we finish off 2nd doses for the younger cohorts, and also do 15-17 year olds, although this probably won't help the CFR much as these are mostly groups who don't die of Covid anyway. There should be a modest reduction in hospitalisations/case from the remaining 2nd doses, but the effect should be pretty small.
Population immunity should also be rising via infection, particularly as that infection is going to be biased towards the 10% of adults who haven't been vaxed. At 30k cases a day, biased 50/50 towards the unvaxed, thats another 1/2 a million a month immune (I think between children and unvaxed adults there are about 16 million left unjabbed, but a good chunk of them should already have infection aquired immunity).
We have an advantage over Israel in that our dose spacing is better than theirs, and seems likely to provide a longer lasting immunity, and AZ seems to fade slower than Pfizer.
Personally, I don't think the hospitalisation rates will overwhelm the health service this winter, although it will probably act like seasonal flu and finish off another group of unwell people. The most important thing is that the government holds its nerve and doesn't reinpose restrictions of any sort. If that happens, we're utterly stuffed virtually forever, as the situation is unlikely to get much better than this for some years.
Mmm - you're probably right. So we are therefore stuck in this regrettable situation of Scotland hating us but not being able to leave.
What's this thing you English have for people, indeed whole countries, 'hating' you? I confess to hating BJ and his horrible, morally vacant mob, but I try to keep it quarantined. I will own up to a fair degree of contempt for those that enthusiastically support these pricks at every evidence of their arseholery..
Hate the regime / love the people. Like with China.
Well not "love" exactly - leave that to the sort of people who like to say that they "love" a whole people - but you know what I mean.
There needs to be a word for 'feel vaguely benevolent towards and wish pleasant things for'.
Yes, an exact word for how you feel about the English and how I feel about cats. We need one. Bet there's something in German.
‘SNP would likely lose IndyRef2 court battle, says ex-government adviser’ - Professor Ciaran Martin said Westminster could change the law if Holyrood pull off a "surprise win" in the courts
… Prof Martin said: “Holyrood will begin to legislate for a referendum anyway, probably at some point next year, and it will likely end up in court. I think, but I’m not a lawyer nor can anyone predict court cases with confidence, but I think the Scottish Government will lose.” He added that even if a referendum is granted in court, there could be other obstacles put in the way of another vote. “Ultimately, I think that even if they pull off a surprise win, Westminster could change the law, they could refuse to recognise the result or unionists could boycott the vote,” he said.
“The union in 2021 is in better shape than in 2020, but apart from that the prospects for it are in worst shape than any time, I would venture, since the 1760s,” he said.
“It’s not even, in my view, better than it was on the morning of September 19 2014 (the day after the first referendum).”
The former civil servant said the 45% vote in favour of independence in 2014 was an “astonishing figure”, adding: “That seems to have established a floor, not a ceiling in terms of support for independence.”
So what, the polling shows little difference from 2014 despite Brexit, so no reason for another vote.
He is though right the government would likely win its court battle to refuse indyref2 and even if it lost could legally still ignore the result Madrid style as the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
As 2017 to 2019 shows Westminster can ignore referendum results if it wants to even if it grants them, let alone if it refuses them
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Those are state governments, if we get the first SPD-Green-Linke national government then inevitably in due course we will get the first Union-FDP-AfD government too. The taboo will have been broken (the AfD already supported the FDP in Berlin, it is the Union that has so far held out from dealing with them).
If the Union are largest party they will expect to lead the government again, even if that means adding the FDP or Greens to to the SPD.
If the SPD are largest party then yes the Union may agree to go into opposition and the taboo will still not be broken if the SPD do a deal with the Greens and FDP not Linke but only if those circumstances arise. Of course if the SPD did gain enough votes from Linke to exclude them from the Bundestag then an SPD and Greens and FDP coalition might be on the cards if the FDP agreed even if the Union win most seats
I think we are approaching an agreement.
IF the Union gets most votes and seats in the Bundestag, it's likely there will be a Union/SPD/FDP coalition though a Union/SPD/Green Government is also conceivable.
IF the SPD win most votes and seats and especially if they force Linke out of the Bundestag, an SPD/Green/FDP Coalition becomes possible with the Union going into Opposition.
I think it will be fascinating.
I think the latest polling from Norway is also very interesting (they vote on September 13th).
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Incidentally, on the subject of school testing, that means many schools have had to delay the start of the year so they have time to actually do the tests.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that you can take the virus and live. We know already that even in its infancy it was likely to kill c. 3% give or take of those infected.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Well, at least the "reassuringly" anti-Woke party, the Taliban are on the rise
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
You sure? In a sea of fake news and misinformation the FT has been a beacon of Covid sense. Eg the sainted John Burns Murdoch
I’d be surprised if this article is so blatantly idiotic as you suggest, but I will look at it again
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
Came back home this evening on the Tube this evening, and was surrounded by non-mask wearers.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Usually when you have shortages you ration the product. So if you are short by 10%, you can give everyone 90% of what they asked for. But that doesn't work for delivery driver shortages - you either get a full load (most of the time) or none at all. So I went into Sainsburys last week, which didn't have any fresh meat. Probably their meat delivery never turned up, but other supermarkets will have received their full allocation.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
I have been studying the data from Israel carefully, including this piece which has been circulating with much breathless excitement on here.
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
A lot of the press, like the world in general, are still bamboozled and will be for a long time. I'd liken it to what Chris Morris called the "What The Fuck Factor" on post-9/11. The FT are still hugely sober especially compared to the on-page public panic attacks of some others.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
Absolutely we will. My wife and I have caught it this week. Both double jabbed, both feeling a little better than he start of the week. I’m glad to get it now. I’ve had worse colds. I don’t doubt that’s down to the effectivity of the vaccines.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that you can take the virus and live. We know already that even in its infancy it was likely to kill c. 3% give or take of those infected.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
This is not true. The initial CFR for Covid was estimated at ~1% (unvaxxed, and in a non collapsed health system), I’m not sure it has wavered far from that.
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
"People responsible for poultry supply chain blame someone else for its problems"
Is there any evidence that the British labour force has been "severely depleted" since Brexit?
Anecdotally some EU cits who couldn't work during the pandemic went home and haven't come back, but does it amount to that many?
More like food supply chain workers doing shit jobs bring paid shit and treated like shit have found other jobs during the pandemic, and stayed in them.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Everyone in the whole world will get this virus at some point in their lives. I’m not exaggerating. I mean everyone. You can’t run from it forever. You can face it with your immune system prepared with a vaccine or not. Those are your choices. As time goes on the virus will change but so will humanity’s immune system which, at the beginning of 2020, had little or no idea what to do.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that you can take the virus and live. We know already that even in its infancy it was likely to kill c. 3% give or take of those infected.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
It’s not an argument it’s a fact. The science doesn’t really care about your politics. SARS-Cov-19 will infect everyone. I didn’t invent the virus but it’s now too transmissible to avoid endemicity. Even the most stringent lockdown cannot prevent that now.
I’m not making a “let it rip”. Lockdown for years if you want. That will flatten the curve, reduce hospitalisation, save lives, but make life pretty miserable. But ultimately we’ll all get it anyway.
I hope I’m wrong, but if I were looking for solidity at three I’m thinking I wouldn’t have picked Malan. Hildreth would have been a more sensible choice despite his age. Or maybe Gubbins at Hampshire.
Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
I thought that Forsa poll would be interesting though somebody claimed the German election was going to be a "snoozefest".
Changes since 2017 Bundestag election:
Union CDU/CSU: 23% (-10) Social Democrats: 21% (+0.5) Greens: 19% (+10) FDP-RE: 12% (+1.5) AfD-ID: 10% (-2.5) LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-3)
To take this further, a state poll in Mecklenberg put the SPD ahead of the CDU 25-21. That represents a 12% swing from the CDU to SPD since 2017 so it's not just a question of the national poll numbers but the state and regional poll numbers as well.
Akin to Canada, where, with 200 out of 338 ridings, Ontario and Quebec are hugely significant in detemrining the national outcome.
If it isn't a snoozefest the main reason will not be the results so much as the SPD breaking their near decade long Grand Coalition with the Union to form a government with the far left Linke as well as the Greens.
If so that will break a long held taboo that the SPD would not bring Linke into government just as the Union would not now bring the AfD into government.
In 2005 for example Schroder could have had a majority with Linke and the Greens too but refused and the SPD went into Grand Coalition with Merkel as Chancellor.
In 2013 equally Steinbruck of the SPD could have had a majority with the Linke and Greens but refused for a Grand Coalition with Merkel again.
In 2017 by contrast Merkel could have had a majority with the AfD and FDP but refused for another Grand Coalition with the SPD .
So if the SPD bring Linke into government and break the Grand Coalition and centrist coalition then it also opens the way for the Union to work with the AfD in response.
As for Canada I think there is a chance Trudeau narrowly wins most seats but only thanks to Quebec with the Conservatives winning most seats in Canada excluding those from Quebec
The Canadian Conservatives are vacuous with no backbone.
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
Striking out "climate change is real" at their Party conference may well rebound on them. The election is being fought against a backdrop of insane record temperatures across BC months back, and now rampant forest fires. And a drought in the Prairies which has left farmers without winter feed. And the West is where the Tories win most of their seats.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
So you’re saying a Sainsbury’s has pasta problem on to the next store?
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Not at all sure that this would make Johnson's life significantly more difficult, given the willingness of the Taliban to let all the foreigners go.
Such a thing might even do us a favour. If the Americans have become that unreliable then it would be helpful if this were made explicit to NATO in general, and us in particular, as well as the Afghans. It might finally prompt the Government to take defence seriously.
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Perhaps we should leave first then.
I'm rather more sympathetic to Biden than most but do wonder at the quality of decisions making in WDC - Blinken seems to very lightweight.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Not at all sure that this would make Johnson's life significantly more difficult, given the willingness of the Taliban to let all the foreigners go.
Such a thing might even do us a favour. If the Americans have become that unreliable then it would be helpful if this were made explicit to NATO in general, and us in particular, as well as the Afghans. It might finally prompt the Government to take defence seriously.
I will know the government take defence seriously when they commission the 1st Aviating Porcines Division.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
So you’re saying a Sainsbury’s has pasta problem on to the next store?
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
Came back home this evening on the Tube this evening, and was surrounded by non-mask wearers.
I’m planning a first train trip in almost two years tomorrow. I’m also planning to take my FFP3 mask.
Elsewhere - not wearing them any more. Just keeping at distance as far as possible.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
So you’re saying a Sainsbury’s has pasta problem on to the next store?
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Not at all sure that this would make Johnson's life significantly more difficult, given the willingness of the Taliban to let all the foreigners go.
Such a thing might even do us a favour. If the Americans have become that unreliable then it would be helpful if this were made explicit to NATO in general, and us in particular, as well as the Afghans. It might finally prompt the Government to take defence seriously.
I will know the government take defence seriously when they commission the 1st Aviating Porcines Division.
It's a fair point, sadly. There's no amount of money that could be spent equipping the armed forces adequately that couldn't be better spent on endless above inflation pension increases, after all.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Scotland only reports PCR tests.
But do you not have to get a PCR test to confirm a positive LFT? And then get a test if you are a contact?
That’s the system in England, at least in theory, although I won’t go bail for its being followed.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Hmmm, decent jump in Pillar 2 tests in Scotland - 19000 ish done when it's normally been a pretty consistent 12,000 a day over the last month (9,000 on weekends)
Concurs with this FT article. In short, British meat packing warehouses rely on workers to do long, unsociable hours for low wages. This has evolved because of FOM. Now it has stopped, and they cant exploit EU immigrants, they are struggling
"It is hard to see how you could manage a job with long and variable hours like this if you had to arrange childcare in advance, or indeed had any responsibilities outside work. Even if you could, there are less demanding jobs with steadier shifts that pay a similar wage. Yet the food factory jobs have been manageable for a certain group of migrant workers who came without dependants and lived in shared accommodation. Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association, says that is why the jobs developed this way. “If we’re honest, the working patterns have evolved around having non-UK labour, their prime reason is to stay for three years, earn a lot of money and go home again.”
He says the location of workplaces has changed too, from smaller abattoirs spread around the country to a much-reduced group of large ones in rural areas (because it’s easier to get the animals there). “The whole structure of the industry has altered” over the decades, Allen says. “It’s ended up in a particular pattern and it’s probably got to change.”
Allen says pay for new hires is already up: “I’m seeing starting-level jobs advertised now at £22,000, whereas two years ago it would have been £18,000”. He is talking to members about changing their working patterns, but warns it won’t be easy. Eamon O’Hearn, a national officer at the GMB union, says he has “some sympathy” for the sector’s employers, since they are low-margin, high-volume businesses, relentlessly squeezed by the powerful supermarkets. Meat in the UK is among the cheapest in western Europe. “I think we can’t have a debate or review of what work-life balance means in our communities without addressing the market power of the retailers,” he says.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
I have been studying the data from Israel carefully, including this piece which has been circulating with much breathless excitement on here.
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
That was 1915.
Well you stay inside your house with your mask on - I'd recommend a proper rather than placebo mask.
Though if you're afraid of diminishing vaccine effectiveness you might be better to come into contact with Delta now.
Guardian suggesting US military could leave as soon as their boys and girls are on the planes. Very much "I am on the bus, Conductor you can ring the bell".
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Perhaps we should leave first then.
I'm rather more sympathetic to Biden than most but do wonder at the quality of decisions making in WDC - Blinken seems to very lightweight.
It all depends on whether we are ready to pull our people out before the US leave. The Guardian was suggesting we are behind their schedule.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Hmmm, decent jump in Pillar 2 tests in Scotland - 19000 ish done when it's normally been a pretty consistent 12,000 a day over the last month (9,000 on weekends)
So more tests=more cases?
In which case I wouldn’t be unduly alarmed. Keep on those hospitalisation numbers because as those people who know what they're talking about keep telling us, that’s the key.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
Maybe we should send Ghani and his cash back to the Taliban.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
It. Protects. Others.
You told us that a year ago.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
And, to be honest, I don't think I'd vote for independence even if a fancy economist demonstrated it would increase prosperity. Some things are more important than money.
What would persuade you?
If the UK rejoined the EU then I'd probably shift back to the position I think I had in 2014 - I'd regret it if it happened, but I wouldn't be overly opposed as the practical impacts would be minimised by joint membership of the EU (I didn't think Scotland would have been immediately ejected from the EU).
Briefly after the Brexit referendum I was in favour of Scottish independence, on the basis that if it came to a forced choice between the British Union and the European Union I'd rather be in the European one - but after years of having the reality of what that would mean in terms of a border on the island of Britain driven home to me by the example of the implications of Brexit on Northern Ireland's borders I'm now firmly against Scottish independence on an anti-new-border basis.
I don't like borders. I find it very hard to envisage any circumstances in which I would vote for the creation of a new one.
A new border means a curtailment of my freedom. It means an increase in mind-numbingly pointless bureaucracy. And for what? Because one group have so successfully othered another group of people purely on the basis of where they were born that they aren't willing to cooperate with them.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
I'd say supermarket mask wearing is down to 30% in my experience.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
About right for these parts too.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
Agree. Although in previous weeks there were shortages of tin food, pasta and rice in Sainsbury's there was no shortage of bread flour or loo rolls which seem to be the most noticeable when panic buying. And also no evidence of shoppers playing silly buggers.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Of course 58% of people in hospital with Covid in Israel are double jabbed. As the proportion of people double jabbed rise, so does the proportion of them in hospital. That's a statistical inevitability.
Hmmm. I’m not sure Heathener deserves to be called “retarded”. Here’s a fairly sober FT article (££) which frets about the Israeli example. Pfizer does seem to wear off. Of course they have a different dosing regime, they’ve ONLY used Pfizer, and so on, but still
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
That article simply illustrates how far the FT has sunk.
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
I have been studying the data from Israel carefully, including this piece which has been circulating with much breathless excitement on here.
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
That was 1915.
I am open to any and all data on COVID, including that which challenges what I believe or hope. But I have also learned to be very skeptical too.
The reported conversations I've seen about Pfizer's dropping effectiveness is lacking in clarity about whether this refers to antibody effectiveness, T-cell response, or overall clinical effectiveness. And the fact that it is a company-funded study by Pfizer who has a huge financial interest in getting FDA/CDC recommendations for a third booster shot does not fill me with confidence until it is properly peer-reviewed.
What is clear is that immunity does not fall of a cliff face.
Taking a quick look at the 0-19 data and it doesn't look like a particular surge in School children. They have risen similarly to other demographics.
Contacts getting tested too?
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Hmmm, decent jump in Pillar 2 tests in Scotland - 19000 ish done when it's normally been a pretty consistent 12,000 a day over the last month (9,000 on weekends)
So more tests=more cases?
In which case I wouldn’t be unduly alarmed. Keep on those hospitalisation numbers because as those people who know what they're talking about keep telling us, that’s the key.
At a 7.5% positivity rate that is still pretty spicey.
I, as ever, remain glued to the hospital admissions and ventilator numbers.
The basic fact is that Pfizer isn't stemming Delta as effectively on most pandemic measurements as it did with preceding variants. It is also the case that herd immunity is now very unlikely to be achieved.
The rest is a case of watching the data: growing case numbers, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths ... some of whom will have been double jabbed with Pfizer. In all of those instances more will be affected than would have been the case with preceding variants.
A much simpler way of putting this is that we're heading for trouble this autumn / winter. I wish it weren't so and I wish I could take the Peter Pan approach that some stridently desire. The evidence sadly makes that impossible.
As someone who’s double-Pfizered, may I just say thank you for ruining my day Heathener.
I wouldn't worry - chances are even if you contract covid now, you will have a bad few days at most, and almost certainly won'y need hospital care. @Heathener has a rather doom filled outlook. If he/she was commenting at this time last year, they would have been proven absolutely correct. Now over 90% of adults have some immunity. Well in the UK at least, not sure where you are...
I’m doubled jabbed with AZ and have got Covid. Diagnosed yesterday. Caught it from the wife. Feel fine now. I’m not too fussed. The jabs work.
Hope it’s not too bad for you.
Yes, the jabs work. It’s very much a half-truth to say they don’t stop transmission, what they are unquestionably doing is keeping people out of hospitals.
Untrue, sadly. 58% of those hospitalised in Israel have received both Pfizer jabs.
I'm double Pfizered so I take no pleasure in reporting the facts. 15% increase in UK cases over the past week. Hospitalisations and deaths also all up.
I'm sorry to say we are heading for further trouble.
Isn’t that hospitalisation figure just a by-product of the fact that so many of the at-risk group have been vaccinated?
Yes, of course it is. Utterly meaningless without considering the prior risk profile.
Hospitalisations, deaths and case numbers are all rising I'm afraid.
We can try to pretend otherwise. Like Canute holding back the tide.
It all depends how far they all rise (which is a fairly big "known unknown"). Case numbers themselves don't matter, beyond being a bit of a leading indicator for the hospitalisation/death graphs.
I think we are probably stuck with close to the current CFR now (I think it's around 0.3% although this is using the magic PHE 28 day measure, which is almost certainly an overestimate). Whilst population immunity should still be rising as we finish off 2nd doses for the younger cohorts, and also do 15-17 year olds, although this probably won't help the CFR much as these are mostly groups who don't die of Covid anyway. There should be a modest reduction in hospitalisations/case from the remaining 2nd doses, but the effect should be pretty small.
Population immunity should also be rising via infection, particularly as that infection is going to be biased towards the 10% of adults who haven't been vaxed. At 30k cases a day, biased 50/50 towards the unvaxed, thats another 1/2 a million a month immune (I think between children and unvaxed adults there are about 16 million left unjabbed, but a good chunk of them should already have infection aquired immunity).
We have an advantage over Israel in that our dose spacing is better than theirs, and seems likely to provide a longer lasting immunity, and AZ seems to fade slower than Pfizer.
Personally, I don't think the hospitalisation rates will overwhelm the health service this winter, although it will probably act like seasonal flu and finish off another group of unwell people. The most important thing is that the government holds its nerve and doesn't reinpose restrictions of any sort. If that happens, we're utterly stuffed virtually forever, as the situation is unlikely to get much better than this for some years.
This is where the ground work of Baker, Harper etc will come into play. Boris now knows that if he imposes lockdowns, he might get ousted. So he won't.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
The shortages I have seen are mostly category shortages while other items have been fully stocked. Which maybe suggests missed deliveries.
NB It's also possible that Scotland is experiencing more shortages due to longer delivery journeys.
For the record, I don't approve of New Zealand's approach either.
The vaccines are not working as effectively now as we would wish against Delta and people SHOULD be taking precautions. Everyone should be wearing a mask indoors compulsorily in all circumstances and we should be minimising social contact. Small price to pay for relative levels of freedom.
Instead of which Britain has gone bonkers and trouble is coming of it.
That would be far less freedom than we've had throughout.
Anecdotally, Sainsbury had a LOT of empty shelves today. Not a problem since lots of full ones too, but quite striking.
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
Interesting as you are just down the A3/A31 from us. For the last 2 weeks we have had a lot of empty shelves in Sainsbury's. Today all ok except for rice.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
No. If we were going through that mess again then there'd also be a shortage, at the very least, of pasta, bog roll and tinned food.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
Agree. Although in previous weeks there were shortages of tin food, pasta and rice in Sainsbury's there was no shortage of bread flour or loo rolls which seem to be the most noticeable when panic buying. And also no evidence of shoppers playing silly buggers.
We're in peak camping season. There are literally millions more Brits in the country than normal. Some variation in stocking levels is likely.
Comments
See: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/02/an-economic-recipe-to-bankrupt-scotland
Prof McDonald has repeatedly challenged pro-Indy supporters to dispute his conclusions. None has.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH8bdWUTrfI
https://www.ft.com/content/572112fd-a713-4b0f-99be-bfcbf8506205
Where I disagree with Heathener is the idea this means we must go back to “mandatory masks at all times indoors” etc etc.
The virus could keep evolving and escaping. We cannot lockdown forever, and end normal human life forever. We just have to accept life is considerably riskier than it was. If you want to socialise, you may catch a nasty disease, and it may kill you. It is unlikely if you are not in a very high risk group, but it can happen. That’s it. You choose
Punters may like to know there is a daily prrojection on 338canada.com.
Today it shows Libs winning 162, Tories 114, NDP 35, BQ 25 and Greens 2.
Also Nova Scotia went to the polls yesterday. An upset win for the opposition Tories. A breakthrough in the Maritimes is vital if they are to get near power.
However, they ran on the health service. (Red Tory was originally coined in Atlantic Canada).
This is how they can win. At odds, though, with the climate change denying, God and guns, no masks of the Party further west.
The surge is 9 days after the first game of the season so a little late but otherwise checks out.
The AfD are not in any State Govenrment.
It's now far from unrealistic the SPD will win the most votes and seats and that would be the best time since 2002. If so, Olaf Scholz would become the first non-CDU Chancellor since Gerhard Schroder.
The other point the CDU/CSU have never served as the junior members of a coalition Government. They have either led the Government or gone into Opposition.
Can you see a party like that agreeing to be somebody else's junior partner after 16 years of Government? I suspect if they suffer their worst ever election result the Union will go into opposition voluntarily and open the door for a non-Union Government of some form.
The other question is whether the SPD will not only gain enough votes to outpoll the Union but whether they will take enough from Linke to exclude the latter from the Bundestag?
The Antibody Survey has data up until mid July.
Gives antibody Prevalence of 93.6% for England and 92.5% for Scotland.
If the difference of 1% is significant then why didn't, say, London get ravaged by Delta back in mid June when anti body prevalence was just 87%?
Those sober bastards need to turn in their licences so drunks like @SeanT can drive in safety.
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/15581
- Professor Ciaran Martin said Westminster could change the law if Holyrood pull off a "surprise win" in the courts
… Prof Martin said: “Holyrood will begin to legislate for a referendum anyway, probably at some point next year, and it will likely end up in court. I think, but I’m not a lawyer nor can anyone predict court cases with confidence, but I think the Scottish Government will lose.” He added that even if a referendum is granted in court, there could be other obstacles put in the way of another vote. “Ultimately, I think that even if they pull off a surprise win, Westminster could change the law, they could refuse to recognise the result or unionists could boycott the vote,” he said.
“The union in 2021 is in better shape than in 2020, but apart from that the prospects for it are in worst shape than any time, I would venture, since the 1760s,” he said.
“It’s not even, in my view, better than it was on the morning of September 19 2014 (the day after the first referendum).”
The former civil servant said the 45% vote in favour of independence in 2014 was an “astonishing figure”, adding: “That seems to have established a floor, not a ceiling in terms of support for independence.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-would-likely-lose-indyref2-24786932.amp
If the Union are largest party they will expect to lead the government again, even if that means adding the FDP or Greens to to the SPD.
If the SPD are largest party then yes the Union may agree to go into opposition and the taboo will still not be broken if the SPD do a deal with the Greens and FDP not Linke but only if those circumstances arise. Of course if the SPD did gain enough votes from Linke to exclude them from the Bundestag then an SPD and Greens and FDP coalition might be on the cards if the FDP agreed even if the Union win most seats
A few years ago they would had had a team of analysts on staff and scientists on retainer, to go through this sort of stuff properly, rather than print a scaremongering article they don’t really understand.
PB’s resident financial analyst @MaxPB has given better reports during the pandemic, than the vast majority of the broadsheet media.
Case numbers themselves don't matter, beyond being a bit of a leading indicator for the hospitalisation/death graphs.
I think we are probably stuck with close to the current CFR now (I think it's around 0.3% although this is using the magic PHE 28 day measure, which is almost certainly an overestimate). Whilst population immunity should still be rising as we finish off 2nd doses for the younger cohorts, and also do 15-17 year olds, although this probably won't help the CFR much as these are mostly groups who don't die of Covid anyway. There should be a modest reduction in hospitalisations/case from the remaining 2nd doses, but the effect should be pretty small.
Population immunity should also be rising via infection, particularly as that infection is going to be biased towards the 10% of adults who haven't been vaxed. At 30k cases a day, biased 50/50 towards the unvaxed, thats another 1/2 a million a month immune (I think between children and unvaxed adults there are about 16 million left unjabbed, but a good chunk of them should already have infection aquired immunity).
We have an advantage over Israel in that our dose spacing is better than theirs, and seems likely to provide a longer lasting immunity, and AZ seems to fade slower than Pfizer.
Personally, I don't think the hospitalisation rates will overwhelm the health service this winter, although it will probably act like seasonal flu and finish off another group of unwell people.
The most important thing is that the government holds its nerve and doesn't reinpose restrictions of any sort. If that happens, we're utterly stuffed virtually forever, as the situation is unlikely to get much better than this for some years.
The antibody boost from vaccines can be different from the antibody boost from prior infection.
He is though right the government would likely win its court battle to refuse indyref2 and even if it lost could legally still ignore the result Madrid style as the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
As 2017 to 2019 shows Westminster can ignore referendum results if it wants to even if it grants them, let alone if it refuses them
The shop sign now says masking is voluntary but wear them if you can. Everybody was. Masks outside all gone, though.
IF the Union gets most votes and seats in the Bundestag, it's likely there will be a Union/SPD/FDP coalition though a Union/SPD/Green Government is also conceivable.
IF the SPD win most votes and seats and especially if they force Linke out of the Bundestag, an SPD/Green/FDP Coalition becomes possible with the Union going into Opposition.
I think it will be fascinating.
I think the latest polling from Norway is also very interesting (they vote on September 13th).
Despite Wokeness being totally out of control in Canada they are putting up no resistance to it, instead banging on about tedious and irrelevant fringe taxes with a dose of climate change denial.
At what point do we say this is getting silly?
Everyone should read it before commenting on the efficacy of vaccines in Israel.
Basically: Pfizer is 90+% effective at preventing hospitalisations.
Unfortunately this virus adapts. Not as well as some, thankfully, but it does adapt. Some variations like Delta become more transmisable. Others may also become more deadly.
So your 'let it rip' utilitarian (aka extreme right-wing screw other people) approach means a significant number of people would die. It additionally means health services become overwhelmed.
If you want to live in a society that is that uncaring it's up to you but thankfully it's not Britain. Not yet.
So different places different patterns.
I do wonder if mask wearers think that a little strip of cloth, often worn incorrectly, is going to protect them from Delta.
I’d be surprised if this article is so blatantly idiotic as you suggest, but I will look at it again
I'm afraid Pfizer is not 90%+ effective at preventing hospitalisations. That's a lop-sided and filtered way of reading the data currently emerging and a good example of how statistics can be twisted.
One of the biggest additional concerns with Pfizer is the diminishing effectiveness over time.
I wish this were not so. I'm as ready as the next person to jump for joy when this wretched thing is defeated.
But a few of the messages on here read rather like those declaring after the battle of Loos that the First World War was over.
That was 1915.
Has there been a major surge in testing? Because if not that would rule that possibility out, but at the same time would be surprising given there should be just with every teenager being tested.
Absolutely we will. My wife and I have caught it this week. Both double jabbed, both feeling a little better than he start of the week. I’m glad to get it now. I’ve had worse colds. I don’t doubt that’s down to the effectivity of the vaccines.
It will become endemic if it is not already.
That would be an outrageous dereliction of duty by Biden, leaving his allies to fend for themselves. It could give Johnson a little more trouble than he perhaps deserves.
Is there any evidence that the British labour force has been "severely depleted" since Brexit?
Anecdotally some EU cits who couldn't work during the pandemic went home and haven't come back, but does it amount to that many?
More like food supply chain workers doing shit jobs bring paid shit and treated like shit have found other jobs during the pandemic, and stayed in them.
https://newrepublic.com/article/163186/youll-probably-get-covid-eventually-avoid-long-can
I’m not making a “let it rip”. Lockdown for years if you want. That will flatten the curve, reduce hospitalisation, save lives, but make life pretty miserable. But ultimately we’ll all get it anyway.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/england-vs-india-3rd-test-dawid-malan-called-up-to-england-squad-for-third-test-1273999
I hope I’m wrong, but if I were looking for solidity at three I’m thinking I wouldn’t have picked Malan. Hildreth would have been a more sensible choice despite his age. Or maybe Gubbins at Hampshire.
The election is being fought against a backdrop of insane record temperatures across BC months back, and now rampant forest fires. And a drought in the Prairies which has left farmers without winter feed.
And the West is where the Tories win most of their seats.
Such a thing might even do us a favour. If the Americans have become that unreliable then it would be helpful if this were made explicit to NATO in general, and us in particular, as well as the Afghans. It might finally prompt the Government to take defence seriously.
I'm rather more sympathetic to Biden than most but do wonder at the quality of decisions making in WDC - Blinken seems to very lightweight.
A shortage of a dry good like rice surely suggests panic-buying, not delivery problems
Elsewhere - not wearing them any more. Just keeping at distance as far as possible.
As to positives and negatives I don't think I've noticed any difference.
Brexit effects are something which will happen over many years.
That’s the system in England, at least in theory, although I won’t go bail for its being followed.
"It is hard to see how you could manage a job with long and variable hours like this if you had to arrange childcare in advance, or indeed had any responsibilities outside work. Even if you could, there are less demanding jobs with steadier shifts that pay a similar wage. Yet the food factory jobs have been manageable for a certain group of migrant workers who came without dependants and lived in shared accommodation. Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association, says that is why the jobs developed this way. “If we’re honest, the working patterns have evolved around having non-UK labour, their prime reason is to stay for three years, earn a lot of money and go home again.”
He says the location of workplaces has changed too, from smaller abattoirs spread around the country to a much-reduced group of large ones in rural areas (because it’s easier to get the animals there). “The whole structure of the industry has altered” over the decades, Allen says. “It’s ended up in a particular pattern and it’s probably got to change.”
Allen says pay for new hires is already up: “I’m seeing starting-level jobs advertised now at £22,000, whereas two years ago it would have been £18,000”. He is talking to members about changing their working patterns, but warns it won’t be easy. Eamon O’Hearn, a national officer at the GMB union, says he has “some sympathy” for the sector’s employers, since they are low-margin, high-volume businesses, relentlessly squeezed by the powerful supermarkets. Meat in the UK is among the cheapest in western Europe. “I think we can’t have a debate or review of what work-life balance means in our communities without addressing the market power of the retailers,” he says.
https://www.ft.com/content/1c489fb7-2840-4810-b3e6-a036803edf5c
Though if you're afraid of diminishing vaccine effectiveness you might be better to come into contact with Delta now.
FWIW, no evidence of empty shelves in this part of the world, and nor do I recall there having been at any point since the supermarkets got back on balance after the first lockdown.
Its remarkable how an apparent agreement for free passage for foreigners and Afghans who want to get out hasnt resulted in large numbers of Westerners and eligible Afghans in Kabul decamping to the airport. The number of US and other overseas citizens still stuck in the city is remarkably large. The State Department has today told all those eligible to consider going to the airport but the release has a great disclaimer..they cannot guarantee safe passage to the airport.
A few days ago I mentioned that the Saigon analogy, while apt may be replaced by another, Tehran 1980.
Rumours abound, from people who should know the time of day, that the Taliban are effectively blackmailing the various governments they are dealing with over the price for getting their Afghan people in particular out. The motivation apparently includes good old cash.
So when everyone talks about those Afghans we owe a duty to, who is going to back it wth cash? What if it extends to getting your own citizens out?
There is an answer of sorts, its up the road at Bagram airfield. There is a story the US considered occupying it again and using it . How you get people to it is a problem but no worse than what they face now and it could be secured from the Taliban with much less sweat than the mess at KBL. At the moment however there appears to precisely no strategy to establish sanitary zones to gather and lift people out to the airport. The US could do it but they dont. Instead they are being given the runaround.
In which case I wouldn’t be unduly alarmed. Keep on those hospitalisation numbers because as those people who know what they're talking about keep telling us, that’s the key.
All we have to do is wear masks and covid would disappear.
We did and it didn't.
Now do you really think that one of those flimsy blue masks, often worn incorrectly, is going to stop Delta one way or another ?
If you need to wear a mask wear a proper one.
Briefly after the Brexit referendum I was in favour of Scottish independence, on the basis that if it came to a forced choice between the British Union and the European Union I'd rather be in the European one - but after years of having the reality of what that would mean in terms of a border on the island of Britain driven home to me by the example of the implications of Brexit on Northern Ireland's borders I'm now firmly against Scottish independence on an anti-new-border basis.
I don't like borders. I find it very hard to envisage any circumstances in which I would vote for the creation of a new one.
A new border means a curtailment of my freedom. It means an increase in mind-numbingly pointless bureaucracy. And for what? Because one group have so successfully othered another group of people purely on the basis of where they were born that they aren't willing to cooperate with them.
Not for me thanks.
0% in the Cinema on Friday.
Down to 10%ish on trains I reckon, from this week's experience.
The one that I STILL don't understand is the people who are still putting on a mask to go 9 steps into a restaurant and then sit down, take it off. Covid theatre at its worst.
The reported conversations I've seen about Pfizer's dropping effectiveness is lacking in clarity about whether this refers to antibody effectiveness, T-cell response, or overall clinical effectiveness. And the fact that it is a company-funded study by Pfizer who has a huge financial interest in getting FDA/CDC recommendations for a third booster shot does not fill me with confidence until it is properly peer-reviewed.
What is clear is that immunity does not fall of a cliff face.
I, as ever, remain glued to the hospital admissions and ventilator numbers.
NB It's also possible that Scotland is experiencing more shortages due to longer delivery journeys.
Their women have experienced a decade or two of freedom.
Maybe it's a new ball game.
Would a Lysistratan ploy work there?