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Some worrying statistics from America – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    DougSeal said:

    I think HYUFD and Dickson are an AI set up by Leon to argue with one another as an experiment. No two actual humans could possibly have the boredom threshold to argue with one another repeating the same points over and over and over again ad infinitum.

    And yet they fascinate you apparently..
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 224
    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Afghan state is not so much collapsing before our eyes as revealing itself as a fiction.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2021/08/afghanistan-reviled-president-being-exposed-powerless
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:


    Carry on up the khyber best bits

    make action GIFs like this at MakeaGif

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/us/oregon-delta-national-guard-.html

    On topic, inconvenient facts for those who seek to criticise Florida policy. (not really a low vaxx state in any case).

    High vaccination states Oregon and Hawaii are struggling with an explosion in covid cases.

    Sure but we have loads of cases too. It is deaths, and to a lesser degree hospitalisations that are down, to about 10% of the winter wave.

    Though still quite a pressure on hospitals. Mrs Foxy is press ganged back on ICU again this week. She couldn't sleep last night because of the stress of going back.
    I am of the view now that the only option is a massive increase of funding for the NHS. This is very much a personal view but I’d be far happier to pay more in taxes to avoid putting people like Mr and Mrs Foxy back into this horrible situation than having to remain stuck at home to do so.
    It is not just funding. We do not train anything like enough doctors and nurses. That needs to change, especially now given the shrinking pool of immigrants we rely on to fill the gaps. We also need to acknowledge that spare capacity is needed and not simply a waste of resources.
    Yes, staffing is the issue. On top of Annual leave (much of it deferred from earlier in the year because of covid pressure) we have 57 WTE vacancies on ICU, a mix of unfillable posts, maternity leave and long term sick. We have 21 current ICU/ECMO patients, many from out of area, compared with 83 at the February peak.

    I have never seen morale so low amongst our nurses and HCAs, not helped by patients giving them abuse because they have been told that things are back to normal. Routine and specialist stuff is repeatedly cancelled.
    Perhaps more this ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S7QARslq74

    On more serious matters, how much difference is vaccination making to the actual patients who come in? I've lost track a bit but presumably there are so many cases that some vaccinated people are being hospitalised anyway.
    Yes, the gif was on my clipboard, I didn't mean to post it on this thread.

    The ICU cases are all unvaxxinated, some with good reason, the admissions are more 50/50.
    Gave me a laugh anyway Foxy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully HYUFD is out there in his little tank, valiantly trying to hold back the Taliban hordes from entering Kabul!

    If I was in charge I would never have withdrawn the troops in the first place
    Are you going to resign from the Conservative Party in protest at the support given by the British Government to the American Government’s decision?
    I stand with Tory MPs from Tobias Ellwood to Tom Tugenhadt who are appalled at this withdrawal, although to be fair to Boris once the US withdrew it was unrealistic for the UK to stay alone. The fault lies with Biden.

    Kudos to the LDs too who have attacked Biden's withdrawal as condemning the Afghans to medieval barbarity and us to the return of terrorism

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1426223270961975305?s=20
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1425827915455942656?s=20

    Davey is a proper liberal in the Gladstone and Ashdown mode, prepared to intervene abroad where needed.

    The old wet, pacifist social democratic LDs of Charles Kennedy is now thankfully dead for now
    Funny how you're solely firing your ire at Biden and have not a word to say about Trump who signed a Treaty committing the USA to withdrawing this year (which Biden has honoured).

    Nor to Trump releasing 5000 Taliban prisoners.

    Nor George W Bush for letting the Taliban retreat and get safe harbour in Pakistan from which they could regroup.

    I wonder why solely Biden gets criticism? 🤔
    It was George W Bush who toppled the Taliban in the first place and removed Al Qaeda from the country and forced Bin Laden to Pakistan where US special forces were able to kill him.

    As for Trump, I have said Romney would be far better than him or Biden as President now and Romney has opposed the withdrawal.

    However even Trump has a few sound words today 'Former President Trump slammed President Biden Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.

    “After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added.'

    “This is complete failure through weakness, incompetence, and total strategic incoherence,” Trump said. “What a disgrace it will be when the Taliban raises their flag over America’s Embassy in Kabul.”

    If Kabul falls Trump will begin his campaign to return to the White House in 2024 the day after mark my words, presenting himself as Reagan after Carter and the humiliation of the Iran hostages

    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    The people who really 'took out' ISIS were the Kurds and the Iraqi army though, surely.

    That region seems to have a strong spine of anti-islamism that is sadly lacking in Afghanistan.
    As usual, the Kurds were left holding the shitty end of the stick.

    I don't think Iraq/Syria are anti-Islam by any manner of means; they're 'just not fundamentalist Moslems. The situation is akin to having the Puritans of 17th C New England or the Holy Inquisition of Spain in control.
    Which of the Puritans and the Inquisition play the role of not fundamentalist in your analogy?
    From the safety of the 21st C, I would say they were both as bad as each other. I would not like to have lived under Puritan rule in New England, nor would I have felt safe as a Spaniard when the Inquisition were about.
    Since I tend not to have particularly 'on message' opinions. In all sorts of ways.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    I think HYUFD and Dickson are an AI set up by Leon to argue with one another as an experiment. No two actual humans could possibly have the boredom threshold to argue with one another repeating the same points over and over and over again ad infinitum.

    And yet they fascinate you apparently..
    Yes, I’m very interested in technology
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Is your point, that its the manner of the withdrawal that is so shocking?

    ie it hasn't been a fighting withdrawal....Western power has simply folded instantly like a deck chair in a gale?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Yes, a dreadful day.

    Humiliation for the White House and the US and indeed the entire West.

    Likely return of Afghanistan to being a failed state full of jihadi terrorist camps.

    Glee in Moscow and Beijing as the US is at its weakest internationally for over 100 years, indeed even weaker than at the fall of Saigon as North Vietnam did not pose the threat to the West jihadi terrorism did and the USSR then was not as powerful as China is now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Whilst everyone has the same old Indy debates on here, surely the focus should be on the utter humiliation of the USA and the UK in relation to Afghanistan.

    What a failure of leadership from both countries - but the Chinese must be looking on in glee at the moment.

    More coming their way when Scotland departs the UK
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Taliban could really fuck things up for Johnson and Biden by parking a few HiLuxes on the runway at KBL.

    Surely the UK ambassador and the important people are out already? According to google, the plan is for the SAS to evacuate him tomorrow evening. Oops if that really is the case.

    The scale of the humiliation is truly astounding, they clearly have to submit to the taliban, just to get their people out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
    Agreed.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    Mind you, the greediness and jingoism is a constant.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited August 2021

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:



    M16s aren't massively different to AK47s...

    Different cartridge. 7.62x39 vs 5.65x45. Probably not worth the effort unless they come across millions of rounds somewhere.
    And AK's probably still take a hellauva bigger battering from Panjshir Valley dust and snow than M16s. The disparity is I guess smaller now but didn’t grunts in Vietnam initially pick up AK47s when they could cos their M16s had given up the ghost after a drop of rain?
    I could believe the story of the SA80... I threw mine into the Shatt al-Arab.

    The M16 (and the M4 it begat) is very reliable in all conditions in my experience. The issue with AKs of all types is that their quality is widely variable because they are made in so many places. The Hungarian ones were supposed to be amazing and the Chinese ones get hot and stovepipe after about 10 rounds. The Taliban mainly use Pakistani ones - a mixture of legit license built ones and hand built 'Khyber Pass Copies'.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
    Agreed.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    Mind you, the greediness and jingoism is a constant.
    If your point is that the modern tory party has abandoned all principle in the last 18 months then we agree.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    5m
    What the hell is the point of recalling Parliament so they can bemoan something they can't and won't do anything about? Pointless theatre.

    To spread the blame.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Yes, a dreadful day.

    Humiliation for the White House and the US and indeed the entire West.

    Likely return of Afghanistan to being a failed state full of jihadi terrorist camps.

    Glee in Moscow and Beijing as the US is at its weakest internationally for over 100 years, indeed even weaker than at the fall of Saigon as North Vietnam did not pose the threat to the West jihadi terrorism did and the USSR then was not as powerful as China is now
    Trumpists contend that the neo-cons, the US military and the CIA are all pro-Biden because he represented a return to the expansionism they love so dearly.

    I guess we can wave that theory goodbye.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
    Agreed.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    Mind you, the greediness and jingoism is a constant.
    If your point is that the modern tory party has abandoned all principle in the last 18 months then we agree.

    Glad you got the gist! Sorry for being a poor communicator. I promise to pull my socks up.
  • The Afghan state is not so much collapsing before our eyes as revealing itself as a fiction.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2021/08/afghanistan-reviled-president-being-exposed-powerless

    A very expensive fiction.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
    Yes, anent fellow Christians (not that he would agree).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
    Recall it was played after cinema performances. There was a song about an usherette 'who was killed in the rush for the exit/as the orchestra played The Queen'!
    And very few people did stand to attention.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Rory Stewart:-
    Deeply disappointing to hear – on top of everything – that Afghans who received Scholarships from the UK government to study in the UK this year have now been told they will not be granted visas due to "administration issues". Surely someone can sort this out?
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1426558342709891078

    Hardly any point now though. There are only about 10 flights out of Afghanistan per day, and of course, they are full (you can only board if you have a negative coronavirus test).

    You've got to admire the insanity. Woke governments (of which the US and to a lesser extent the UK are included) are in a performative panic about racism and womens rights; whilst they actively abandon a whole generation of young women to a life of rape and slavery, if they survive at all; in an actual patriarchial hell.
    Whilst this is sadly true what is your solution: that we keep fighting?
    There is no solution; obviously the problem was in trying to achieve liberal democracy and womens rights by way of regime change, too late now to go back in time and change that. It was more a comment on the obsession with identity politics: as an obsessive and possibly disproportionate amount of effort is spent achieving 'progress' in a small number of western countries, the rest of the world takes giant leaps backwards, and it all largely passes without significant comment or interest outside the old school legacy media.
    I agree with you but successive UK governments did pour hundreds of millions into the education of female Afghans in the hope that this would create a more equal society. It's not as if we did nothing. We just failed. But it is undeniable that it puts the obsession with our supposed patriarchy here into perspective.
    Perhaps Afghan men should also have been given some education. Because if men do not support women's rights then, no matter what you do for the women, those rights have little chance of lasting.
    Isn't the mens' education largely provided by madrassas instilling knowledge of the Koran by incantation?

    No, not in areas that have been under government control. The situation has been messy and underfunded, especially for girls, but not dominated by madrassas.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Afghanistan#:~:text=Education in Afghanistan includes K–12 and higher education,,The nation still requires more schools and teachers.

    That will now, sadly, presumably change.
    First indications are that it has changed overnight in some areas taken by the Taliban. A return to islamic schooling:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58191440
    Along with the compete segregation of women.

    Back to the medieval state, by the look of it.
    Worse than medieval. The medieval world was full of learning and culture. This lot despise both.
    DougSeal said:

    Tying together two topics of the week, we are seeing an incel takeover of an entire country today.

    Hardly celibate.They'll enslave and rape women to get all the sex they want.
    Indeed, but that is the Incel plan too. The combination of polygamy and marriage to older men means a lot of Incels in traditional Islamic societies only now they are in control.

    I take your point on Western societies not taking faith seriously as a motivation, though perhaps the USA and Israel should have better insight.

    There are a lot of people in the world who feel marginalised, unappreciated, and unserved by their governments and capitalist systems. In the past they inclined to Communism and anti-colonialism as an alternative, but now the only people who seem to provide any support or alternative are the religions. If you want your children fed and educated, the Madrassa is the only place where they are made welcome, cost free and without having to pay bribes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Thread

    "Lets do a battlefield assessment of the battle for Kabul.
    It is an extremely deadly situation for the Americans particularly & their embassy staff. They know the war has been lost & now they only need a day to evacuate their staff & troops....but do they have that ONE day? "

    https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1426853276805369858?s=20
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
    Yes, anent fellow Christians (not that he would agree).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers
    The French state has never apologised for this.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Please check all the pictures containing traffic lights before posting further.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited August 2021
    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).
  • darkage said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    Independence should have happened in 2014. It could have easily and workably been achieved whilst the UK was part of the EU - all it really required was some sort of mutually workable agreement over defence and a fudged agreement about money.The border would have been a non issue, because freedom of movement, capital etc was enshrined in the EU - a way could be found for an Independent Scotland to join the EU.

    I cannot see it happening now, because Independence means a hard border and the end of freedom of movement. The nationalists will not be able to provide any denials/assurances about this; and they have seen what happened with the UK and EU under Brexit and all the pain that it has caused in Northern Ireland.

    Having spent some time in Scotland I just can't believe that Scots will vote for this type of disruption.
    How do we know that such things won't happen anyway? The UK government unilaterally abolished the UK customs zone and imposed a customs border between GB and NI. There is nothing stopping them doing the same to Scotland and if they say "we won't do that" its the exact same thing they said to NI.

    This is why I keep coming back to just how massive the NI issue is. South of the wall most people don't care. North of the wall its a direct warning for how much you can trust the word of the UK government.
    Why would the UK government be inclined to impose a customs border with Scotland, if Scotland votes to stay in the union? Surely it only becomes an issue if Scotland becomes independent.
    Why would any UK government propose and then sign a deal which breaks up its own customs zone and excludes a member nation from being able to freely trade inside the UK?

    Two posts both saying "unique circumstances" - bullshit. there should have bee *no* circumstances where such a thing would have been agreed. None. A Brexit "win" where we lose the integrity of the United Kingdom is not a win for the UK.

    And this is the thing. The integrity of the United Kingdom didn't matter - only the political perspective of England and the Tories mattered. It is a lesson for Scotland.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:



    M16s aren't massively different to AK47s...

    Different cartridge. 7.62x39 vs 5.65x45. Probably not worth the effort unless they come across millions of rounds somewhere.
    And AK's probably still take a hellauva bigger battering from Panjshir Valley dust and snow than M16s. The disparity is I guess smaller now but didn’t grunts in Vietnam initially pick up AK47s when they could cos their M16s had given up the ghost after a drop of rain?
    I could believe the story of the SA80... I threw mine into the Shatt al-Arab.

    The M16 (and the M4 it begat) is very reliable in all conditions in my experience. The issue with AKs of all types is that their quality is widely variable because they are made in so many places. The Hungarian ones were supposed to be amazing and the Chinese ones get hot and stovepipe after about 10 rounds. The Taliban mainly use Pakistani ones - a mixture of legit license built ones and hand built 'Khyber Pass Copies'.
    Yeah, I think sorting out the M16 was one lesson that the US military learned early on from Vietnam. I yield to expert knowledge but I assume that there's still a small advantage when spraying around 7.62 rounds indiscriminately rather than smaller?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    malcolmg said:

    Whilst everyone has the same old Indy debates on here, surely the focus should be on the utter humiliation of the USA and the UK in relation to Afghanistan.

    What a failure of leadership from both countries - but the Chinese must be looking on in glee at the moment.

    More coming their way when Scotland departs the UK
    I’d have hoped the situation wouldn’t quite resemble Afghanistan. Mind you, with the SNPs domestic record..
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    The polling I posted earlier indicated bipartisan support for withdrawal from Afghanistan so it’s probably too early to draw that sort of conclusion.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Leon said:

    Thread

    "Lets do a battlefield assessment of the battle for Kabul.
    It is an extremely deadly situation for the Americans particularly & their embassy staff. They know the war has been lost & now they only need a day to evacuate their staff & troops....but do they have that ONE day? "

    https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1426853276805369858?s=20

    How many days did the Americans have to evacuate Saigon in 1975? Interesting question.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    Yes. And I think it’ll be one of the biggest fall from graces seen in a USA presidency
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    Wasn't it already over, in essence?

    Incredibly, he is now on holiday. Which makes it all look even worse
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
    Yes, anent fellow Christians (not that he would agree).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers
    The French state has never apologised for this.
    Wouldn't the true modern successor be the Vatican City?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:


    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Enjoy it. I am. Hope lies in the ashes of empires.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
    Agreed.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    Mind you, the greediness and jingoism is a constant.
    If your point is that the modern tory party has abandoned all principle in the last 18 months then we agree.

    Glad you got the gist! Sorry for being a poor communicator. I promise to pull my socks up.
    Fair enough I undervalued your contribution here, but its strange to see such a good critique coming from a poster with a very different outlook in general.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Gotta love the first six words in this Tweet “Say what you like about the Taliban, at least the trains ran on time”

    Roshan M Salih
    @RmSalih
    Whatever you think of the Taliban their seemingly imminent victory is a historic defeat of colonialism and imperialism. This should be the main narrative of media around the world, rather than the red herrings about women's rights etc that we are being sold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited August 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    The polling I posted earlier indicated bipartisan support for withdrawal from Afghanistan so it’s probably too early to draw that sort of conclusion.
    BiPartisan?

    It has united the GOP against Biden for the first time if anything.

    From Senator Mitt Romney, the only Republican Senator to vote to impeach Trump 'I understand but disagree with those who felt we should leave Afghanistan; I cannot understand why it has been done with such tragic human cost; without an effective strategy to defend our partners; and with inestimable shock to our nation’s credibility, reliability, and honor'
    https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1426658988091973633?s=20

    To Trump himself 'Former President Trump slammed President Biden Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    You know the conspiracy theory that Trump won?

    I wonder if we that expect that view to emerge from places other than just the depths of the populist right, from here on in.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:


    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Enjoy it. I am. Hope lies in the ashes of empires.
    Your cynicism is unamusing here. The Taliban are pure evil. Life is about to get immeasurably worse for millions of Afghanis, especially women and girls; life is about to end for thousands of them, I suspect
  • DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    The polling I posted earlier indicated bipartisan support for withdrawal from Afghanistan so it’s probably too early to draw that sort of conclusion.
    Might be overly cynical, but I suspect the support for withdrawal is conditional on not being shown the consequences.
    I can think of popular decisions taken by the UK government where that might apply.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    The polling I posted earlier indicated bipartisan support for withdrawal from Afghanistan so it’s probably too early to draw that sort of conclusion.
    BiPartisan?

    It has united the GOP against Biden for the first time if anything.

    From Senator Mitt Romney, the only Republican Senator to vote to impeach Trump 'I understand but disagree with those who felt we should leave Afghanistan; I cannot understand why it has been done with such tragic human cost; without an effective strategy to defend our partners; and with inestimable shock to our nation’s credibility, reliability, and honor'
    https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1426658988091973633?s=20

    To Trump himself 'Former President Trump slammed President Biden Saturday for not “following the plan” the former administration left for him regarding withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power”
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/567907-trump-slams-biden-for-not-following-the-plan-he-left-on
    How likely do we think it is that Trump left a "plan"?

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    Independence should have happened in 2014. It could have easily and workably been achieved whilst the UK was part of the EU - all it really required was some sort of mutually workable agreement over defence and a fudged agreement about money.The border would have been a non issue, because freedom of movement, capital etc was enshrined in the EU - a way could be found for an Independent Scotland to join the EU.

    I cannot see it happening now, because Independence means a hard border and the end of freedom of movement. The nationalists will not be able to provide any denials/assurances about this; and they have seen what happened with the UK and EU under Brexit and all the pain that it has caused in Northern Ireland.

    Having spent some time in Scotland I just can't believe that Scots will vote for this type of disruption.
    How do we know that such things won't happen anyway? The UK government unilaterally abolished the UK customs zone and imposed a customs border between GB and NI. There is nothing stopping them doing the same to Scotland and if they say "we won't do that" its the exact same thing they said to NI.

    This is why I keep coming back to just how massive the NI issue is. South of the wall most people don't care. North of the wall its a direct warning for how much you can trust the word of the UK government.
    I hesitate to add whisky to the fire, but the NI situation (stay in the EU) is also a solution many Scots would have liked.
    And a sizeable minority south of the border.
    and west of the border...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    It’s amazing what happens when Mark Wood gets to bowl with a ball less than 20 overs old.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Leon said:

    "Witnesses say some local guards, armed neighboorhood police in kabul, stripping off their uniforms. Putting on traditional clothing."

    https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426841704313806851?s=20

    The Western media/governments have never understood this. The Afghans were never going to fight their own brothers.
    The Taliban don’t seem to have a problem with doing that.
    Fundamentalist religious fanatics are frightening. Who was it said 'Kill them all; God will know his own"?
    A Christian cleric I believe.
    I suppose we've progressed if all we have to worry about is fucking fools advising the singing of God Save the Queen before football matches.
    Yes, anent fellow Christians (not that he would agree).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers
    The French state has never apologised for this.
    Wouldn't the true modern successor be the Vatican City?
    The ultimate beneficiary was the Kingdom of France. I was talking a lot about Vanished Kingdoms yesterday, the Langudoc and the County of Toulouse is a state that could have been, but the Parisian Kings used this “Crusade” to ensure the area is what we now know as Southern France, rather than Occitania, or even Northern Catalonia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    DougSeal said:

    Gotta love the first six words in this Tweet “Say what you like about the Taliban, at least the trains ran on time”

    Roshan M Salih
    @RmSalih
    Whatever you think of the Taliban their seemingly imminent victory is a historic defeat of colonialism and imperialism. This should be the main narrative of media around the world, rather than the red herrings about women's rights etc that we are being sold.

    Jesus Christ that guy's Twitter feed. And he's a British Muslim. Odious
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    He doesn’t know anything of the sort. It is certainly winnable for remain. Recent polling has shown a small majority favouring remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Yes, a dreadful day.

    Humiliation for the White House and the US and indeed the entire West.

    Likely return of Afghanistan to being a failed state full of jihadi terrorist camps.

    Glee in Moscow and Beijing as the US is at its weakest internationally for over 100 years, indeed even weaker than at the fall of Saigon as North Vietnam did not pose the threat to the West jihadi terrorism did and the USSR then was not as powerful as China is now
    Trumpists contend that the neo-cons, the US military and the CIA are all pro-Biden because he represented a return to the expansionism they love so dearly.

    I guess we can wave that theory goodbye.
    Yes forget that, today Biden is a cross between George McGovern and Bernie Sanders but without the conviction
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited August 2021
    Just 5 weeks ago, on 8th July, Biden held a press conference at which he said he was confident Afghan forces would be able to hold off the Taliban.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan/

    "Q Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?
    THE PRESIDENT: No, it is not.
    Q Why?
    THE PRESIDENT: Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    All that's needed now is some US or British citizens left behind as effective hostages. That way we can relive not just the fall of Saigon but the Iran hostage crisis as well.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gotta love the first six words in this Tweet “Say what you like about the Taliban, at least the trains ran on time”

    Roshan M Salih
    @RmSalih
    Whatever you think of the Taliban their seemingly imminent victory is a historic defeat of colonialism and imperialism. This should be the main narrative of media around the world, rather than the red herrings about women's rights etc that we are being sold.

    Jesus Christ that guy's Twitter feed. And he's a British Muslim. Odious
    He’s no fan of Rory Stewart !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Still, tradition is being maintained in one respect anyway: August as THE month for global fuck-ups.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Yes, a dreadful day.

    Humiliation for the White House and the US and indeed the entire West.

    Likely return of Afghanistan to being a failed state full of jihadi terrorist camps.

    Glee in Moscow and Beijing as the US is at its weakest internationally for over 100 years, indeed even weaker than at the fall of Saigon as North Vietnam did not pose the threat to the West jihadi terrorism did and the USSR then was not as powerful as China is now
    Trumpists contend that the neo-cons, the US military and the CIA are all pro-Biden because he represented a return to the expansionism they love so dearly.

    I guess we can wave that theory goodbye.
    Yes forget that, today Biden is a cross between George McGovern and Bernie Sanders but without the conviction
    If your point about this uniting the republicans holds....blimey. Big implications there....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    You know the conspiracy theory that Trump won?

    I wonder if we that expect that view to emerge from places other than just the depths of the populist right, from here on in.

    It is difficult to interpret that collection of words, but if you are suggesting that other than the really true nutters think Trump won the answer is no. What camp are you in?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    edited August 2021

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    The polling I posted earlier indicated bipartisan support for withdrawal from Afghanistan so it’s probably too early to draw that sort of conclusion.
    Might be overly cynical, but I suspect the support for withdrawal is conditional on not being shown the consequences.
    I can think of popular decisions taken by the UK government where that might apply.
    Not overly cynical at all. Fickle voters will quite happily exist in a continuum which encompasses approval of ar lads being brought home and rage & despair at the Taliban marching into Kabul. Many of them may even be untroubled by making a connection between the two events.
    As you imply, 'why are those bastard EUers whose shackles we have thrown off not making things easy for us' might fall into this category.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    All that's needed now is some US or British citizens left behind as effective hostages. That way we can relive not just the fall of Saigon but the Iran hostage crisis as well.
    Unquestionably there will be. The Viet Cong were close to, or in, the suburbs of Saigon for several days, IIRC. Although their big base wasn't far away.
    Fascinating place to visit. When you see it, you know how they won.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It's like some grand cosmic joke


    "US miilitary helicopters evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban enter the city"

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1426832837710426113?s=20


    I refuse to believe Biden and Harris and Co sat down and thought "Yes this will happen, the whole Saigon thing, and it will be worth it"

    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Yes, a dreadful day.

    Humiliation for the White House and the US and indeed the entire West.

    Likely return of Afghanistan to being a failed state full of jihadi terrorist camps.

    Glee in Moscow and Beijing as the US is at its weakest internationally for over 100 years, indeed even weaker than at the fall of Saigon as North Vietnam did not pose the threat to the West jihadi terrorism did and the USSR then was not as powerful as China is now
    Trumpists contend that the neo-cons, the US military and the CIA are all pro-Biden because he represented a return to the expansionism they love so dearly.

    I guess we can wave that theory goodbye.
    Yes forget that, today Biden is a cross between George McGovern and Bernie Sanders but without the conviction
    The Boris regime are also withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:


    They have fucked up catastrophically, it is a total humiliation for the USA and a moment of real danger for the West

    Enjoy it. I am. Hope lies in the ashes of empires.
    Your cynicism is unamusing here. The Taliban are pure evil. Life is about to get immeasurably worse for millions of Afghanis, especially women and girls; life is about to end for thousands of them, I suspect
    It is really the beginning of the end for all of us, as the pressure doesn't stop with the evacuation of Kabul. It has always been the case that the West is devoid of values or a civilisational mission but has for many years felt safe due essentially to its ability to project power. This is alarming evidence of this decline. What after that? The whole edifice can fall apart very quickly, and my fear is that it probably will.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    Didn't Boris also say he would never allow a border down the Irish Sea?
    He had no choice to get a trade deal with the EU as the EU held the key hand on that.

    On indyref2 Boris holds the key hand, not Sturgeon, under the Scotland Act 1998
    The Tories told us that they “held all the cards”.

    The Scottish nation hold the key hand, not any single politician. The Tories are playing with fire here.
    They will hold us prisoner as long as possible, desperate to shout about freedom for any country in the world, wailing and gnashing of teeth over Afghanistan, but allow democracy in Scotland , NO way. Tories are an abomination, selfish greedy, jingoistic and desperate.
    Agreed.

    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics

    Mind you, the greediness and jingoism is a constant.
    If your point is that the modern tory party has abandoned all principle in the last 18 months then we agree.

    Glad you got the gist! Sorry for being a poor communicator. I promise to pull my socks up.
    Fair enough I undervalued your contribution here, but its strange to see such a good critique coming from a poster with a very different outlook in general.
    Thank you.

    I understand Conservatives and Conservatism. I’ve been an involuntary student my entire life. I understand their self-image and I also understand how that differs from reality.

    And I don’t have “a very different outlook in general”. I am generally centrist or centre-right on most issues. Although an active trade unionist*, I was also a member of the Moderates (Fredrik Reinfeldt’s party) for many years, serving as a co-opted local councillor.

    (*Swedish trade unions organise into three different national congresses - LO, TCO and Saco - and I belong to the one furthest away from the Social Democrats: Saco.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    https://mobile.twitter.com/LFC/status/1426632542413856770

    Liverpool FC
    @LFC
    The chant is offensive and inappropriate - a message we have repeatedly communicated alongside Kop Outs.

    We urge supporters to remember the inclusive values of the club and to refrain from using it in the future.


    Ban Liverpool fans from going to away games. That would stop it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    You know the conspiracy theory that Trump won?

    I wonder if we that expect that view to emerge from places other than just the depths of the populist right, from here on in.

    It is difficult to interpret that collection of words, but if you are suggesting that other than the really true nutters think Trump won the answer is no. What camp are you in?
    Of course if you look at the polls, almost half of America thinks Trump won, with a chunk of the rest 'unsure'.

    Whether Trump won or not is irrelevant at this point, if you wanted to undermine Biden, that's how you would go about it...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    I thought I was boring, but FUDHY really does take the biscuit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Taliban spokesman on BBC news. Chilling, got to feel for the people of Afghanistan, especially women.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    Support for independence peaked about a year ago when Sturgeon's mother of the nation schtick still had some credibility and has been declining since across all pollsters. Still closer than it ought to be but the trend is positive.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Just 5 weeks ago, on 8th July, Biden held a press conference at which he said he was confident Afghan forces would be able to hold off the Taliban.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan/

    "Q Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?
    THE PRESIDENT: No, it is not.
    Q Why?
    THE PRESIDENT: Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable."

    I suspect that the US government's idea of Afghanistan came from talking to upper middle class types in Kabul.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    While on that, did you see my earlier post this morning on the Mechanism?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    You know the conspiracy theory that Trump won?

    I wonder if we that expect that view to emerge from places other than just the depths of the populist right, from here on in.

    It is difficult to interpret that collection of words, but if you are suggesting that other than the really true nutters think Trump won the answer is no. What camp are you in?
    Of course if you look at the polls, almost half of America thinks Trump won, with a chunk of the rest 'unsure'.

    Whether Trump won or not is irrelevant at this point, if you wanted to undermine Biden, that's how you would go about it...
    Valid point. Do you think he won?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    You putting a stopper on your novelettish views on the subject would take a handy chunk out of the quota. You could even extend the principle to other areas.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Lol, what a mug Rohit Sharma is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    While on that, did you see my earlier post this morning on the Mechanism?
    I did not. Reprise?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Morning all, so on topic, someone it'd be nice to not have to talk about, but we're sadly not there yet, Donald Trump.

    With few exceptions a rational adult acting rationally will get vaccinated against Covid if it's available to them. They'll do it for themselves and for the wider community. Both selfishly and altruistically it's a slam dunk of a decision not meriting more than a moment's hesitation. It's a (literal) no brainer.

    One person who knows this is the aforesaid Donald Trump and he acted accordingly. He got the jab that a big chunk of his base, those many millions of 'not the brightest but not necessarily terrible' people who look up to him, are shunning. A chance here then, you'd have thought, for him to have an impact - a benign one for a change. It wouldn't take much effort. Just put a clear message out there in that trademark dumbed down and oddly effective syntax that the vaccine is safe, and everybody should do the right thing and get it. He could even, if he wanted, slip in some boasting about how this silver bullet with pandemic ending potential was created on his watch. Go Donald. Do something good. Just this once. It won't kill you. You won't even get a rash.

    But no. In typical 'right wing populist pissing on the patio' style he sees benefit to himself in pushing the chips in precisely the opposite direction. He weighs it all up and decides to make the situation worse. He comes out with this:

    "People are refusing to take the Vaccine because they don't trust his (Biden's) Administration, they don't trust the Election results, and they certainly don't trust the Fake News, which is refusing to tell the Truth."

    Let's help the virus kill more Americans, why the fuck not.

    We're not short of things to illustrate why this ghastly human being mustn't get anywhere near the White House again, but here is one more.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    Tell you what Sean, you desist from your thousand sockpuppets and you’ve got a deal. I won’t mention Scottish independence until 25 December (we Swedes celebrate Christmas on the 24th - by watching Donald Duck - don’t ask.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    What do you suggest we discuss? Brexit maybe?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    While on that, did you see my earlier post this morning on the Mechanism?
    I did not. Reprise?
    As much to say ta as anything else:

    O/T but FPT for @Leon - that Nature article you found on the Antikythera Mechanism is absolutely fascinating. Many thanks for flagging it up.

    If I understand it right, this is (to us) counterintuitive genius - to reduce the cosmic cycles to the most accurate possible sequence of rational numbers (made up of integers for both numerator and divisor, such as 234/567, 61/1, etc.) which can therefore be accurate converted to a sequence of prime integers - and, very easily, the integral numbers of teeth on strings of gears, going one way to multiply and the other to divide. Total solution to the cosmos. And all done with rational numbers. Remembnering that some Greek mathematicians really, really hated irrational numbers.

    But cramming it all in, with such ideas as using the same primes where they occur in different sequences to save on gears ... And that mechanism of a pin on w wheel sliding in a slotted bar I've seen elsewhere, in dreadnought gun-aiming computers, in use until very recently in the odd WW2 hangover such as the Belgrano and Iowa:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr1uK24SND8
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GZa63x3k60 (especially 8:14 for a slotted bar and pin engaging in disc)

    Of course those 20th century things had messy continuous data full of irrational numbers, without the elegance of the Greek computer, but they do seem in some ways to be its unwitting heirs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    You putting a stopper on your novelettish views on the subject would take a handy chunk out of the quota. You could even extend the principle to other areas.
    I am willing to do my bit for the cause, and refrain from any remarks relating to Scottish independence until Christmas Day 2021

    I expect you to do the same, though unfortunately this will reduce your already weary output to one or two sad little comments about your past life as a milliner, but we must all make sacrifices
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    I thought I was boring, but FUDHY really does take the biscuit.
    Don't underrate yourself Stuart.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    India 27-2 now; effectively 0-2
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    Scoop Neill is on the case. I imagine him sitting in front of a bank of tv screens in the south of France fashioning whatever dribbles of news he's getting into some grand and invariably wrong narrative.

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    6m
    Taliban have now occupied the districts of Kalakan, Qarabagh and Paghman in Kabul. From there they pledged not to take Kabul "by force". Sporadic gunfire could be heard as they spoke.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    What do you suggest we discuss? Brexit maybe?
    The similarities between Margaret Thatcher and Greta Thunberg.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    jonny83 said:

    Taliban spokesman on BBC news. Chilling, got to feel for the people of Afghanistan, especially women.

    What did he/she/they say ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    I thought I was boring, but FUDHY really does take the biscuit.
    Don't underrate yourself Stuart.
    Lawyers are of course always scintillating.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    Perhaps you guys could also shut the fuck up about Scottish indy as well, then? Just for a few months?

    We know where you stand, we know where HYUFD stands, we know where Stuart "blood and soil" Dickson stands, maybe if you ALL just put a lid on it til, say, Christmas, the site would benefit

    There ain't gonna be a referendum any time soon, there are no new arguments to be had from Nats or Yoons, you are dancing around the same fucking handbag day after day. Desist. Ta
    While on that, did you see my earlier post this morning on the Mechanism?
    I did not. Reprise?
    As much to say ta as anything else:

    O/T but FPT for @Leon - that Nature article you found on the Antikythera Mechanism is absolutely fascinating. Many thanks for flagging it up.

    If I understand it right, this is (to us) counterintuitive genius - to reduce the cosmic cycles to the most accurate possible sequence of rational numbers (made up of integers for both numerator and divisor, such as 234/567, 61/1, etc.) which can therefore be accurate converted to a sequence of prime integers - and, very easily, the integral numbers of teeth on strings of gears, going one way to multiply and the other to divide. Total solution to the cosmos. And all done with rational numbers. Remembnering that some Greek mathematicians really, really hated irrational numbers.

    But cramming it all in, with such ideas as using the same primes where they occur in different sequences to save on gears ... And that mechanism of a pin on w wheel sliding in a slotted bar I've seen elsewhere, in dreadnought gun-aiming computers, in use until very recently in the odd WW2 hangover such as the Belgrano and Iowa:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr1uK24SND8
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GZa63x3k60 (especially 8:14 for a slotted bar and pin engaging in disc)

    Of course those 20th century things had messy continuous data full of irrational numbers, without the elegance of the Greek computer, but they do seem in some ways to be its unwitting heirs.
    Thanks in return. I confess some of the maths in the Nature article was expressed in a way that was beyond me, so this summary is rather helpful

    It really is a truly astonishing thing, on the frontiers of credibility, one of the sacred objects of human history. It is worth visiting Athens to see, all by itself
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    Why would they take 50.1% now when they think they will get 51% next year, 52% the following year, 53% the year after that etc ?

    The trend seems to be towards the unionists, which is why you nats want a referendum asap.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does this mean Biden's honeymoon period is definitively over? (This being the Taliban taking Kabul).

    You know the conspiracy theory that Trump won?

    I wonder if we that expect that view to emerge from places other than just the depths of the populist right, from here on in.

    It is difficult to interpret that collection of words, but if you are suggesting that other than the really true nutters think Trump won the answer is no. What camp are you in?
    Of course if you look at the polls, almost half of America thinks Trump won, with a chunk of the rest 'unsure'.

    Whether Trump won or not is irrelevant at this point, if you wanted to undermine Biden, that's how you would go about it...
    Valid point. Do you think he won?
    No. I think there was some voter fraud (there always is) but not enough to sway the result.

    I always underestimate quite how viscerally many people hate Donald Trump.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    I thought I was boring, but FUDHY really does take the biscuit.
    Don't underrate yourself Stuart.
    Lawyers are of course always scintillating.
    You think? Not my experience but maybe I have just been unlucky 😉
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    India 27-2 now; effectively 0-2
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    With regard to the tories on the previous thread getting drippy dicks about the informal transmanche regatta which has so adorned out summer...

    They are correct in their analysis: this government lacks the fortitude to do any on water operation that would make any difference.

    However, what they are missing is that this cannot be fixed by a tory government. This is a Europe wide problem that needs a European solution. However the tories have spent the last five years gleefully shitting on European cooperation in general and the French and particular. They withdrew from the Dublin Convention which would have allowed the legal return of some of the arrivals to other European countries.

    It's going to take a government of a different political complexion that can upgrade the UK's relationship with the EU to fix it.

    In fairness, Commander(?) Ace, the situation cannot be fixed by THIS Tory government; up until 2015 one could reasonably say that Tory governments were, generally speaking, pro-Europe.

    It's only under Johnson and his acolytes that the party has become rabid English Nationalists.
    So, what is more likely?

    1. the Conservative Party abandoning English Nationalism and becoming pro-Europe again, or
    2. a government of a different political complexion taking power

    Because one of those two things has to happen to solve the informal transmanche regatta.

    Path 2 seems far more likely than path 1.
    Consider also that, at least since party leaders were chosen by members, the standard response to defeat is to double down on what the members want and moderation can go to hell.

    Suppose the Conservatives lose in 2024. Is the next LotO more likely to be a "Brexit with a human face" type (Hunt, say) or a "Boris's problem was he was just too soft on Europe, bless him" character (Patel or JRM, for example)?
    It will always be the more extreme of the two members presented to them by the filtering committee of Tory MPs
    In one year, Conservative Party membership increased by 50 per cent. That's ordinary Conservatives enthused by Boris, you understand, and not entryists as you'd suspect with Labour. 2018, 120,000 members; 2019, 180,000. So be slightly careful in guessing which way members will vote in any leadership election. Past performance may be no guide.
    Whereas i read on here that Labour was almost broke and could barely pay its head office staff. The Unions don't seem keen to cough up much at the moment.
    Talking of trade unions, I’ve just spotted this new market:

    Best prices - Unite General Secretary election

    Steve Turner 10/11
    Gerard Coyne 2/1
    Sharon Graham 11/4
    I can’t think of a more depressing betting market
    How about the Boris Johnson exit date market?

    2024 or later 4/6

    At least the Scots have an exit route.
    They don't, as long as Boris remains PM he has made clear he will refuse indyref2
    The Scots will decide the future constitutional status of our country, not Boris Johnson.
    And they will vote to remain in the union
    Maybe. Maybe not. There is only one way to find out.
    they are too scared for that
    It really is the only logical conclusion to draw.

    Another No win, even by 50.1% to 49.9%, would put the issue to bed for half a century. We’d be in a Quebec scenario.

    If the Unionists thought they could get that 50.1% they’d take it in a flash. Cummings and Gove think they could, and they might be right, but very few other Unionists do. The big giveaway is that the Unionists with a true, deep understanding of the lie of the land in the villages and towns of Scotland - the Lib Dem and Labour activists - are also strongly against holding a fresh independence referendum. They can see clearly how it would go.
    No it wouldn't, you Nationalists would be arguing for indyref3 the next day.

    Once in a generation means precisely that
    Given that you didn't answer the actual point, which is that Boris knows he will lose a referendum I assume you agree thag Scotland woulc currently vote for independence so you don't want to ffer them the chance.
    Not necessarily, the latest poll is 52% No but once in a generation is once in a generation

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1424074941381713921?s=20
    That's a really original and interesting hypothesis. Do you think you could repeat it, like, maybe 246 times in 77 threads? I can then design a new Antikythera Mechanism to replace you on this site.
    I thought I was boring, but FUDHY really does take the biscuit.
    Don't underrate yourself Stuart.
    Lawyers are of course always scintillating.
    You think? Not my experience but maybe I have just been unlucky 😉
    Keir Starmer?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    Hmm

    alex thomson
    @alextomo
    3m
    Taiiban spokesman- calling for national unity No security threat to anyone in Kabul. Women will be educated and allowed to work so long as their heads are covered
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    jonny83 said:

    Taliban spokesman on BBC news. Chilling, got to feel for the people of Afghanistan, especially women.

    We were listening to some poor female film director in Kabul. She was absolutely distraught. Literally terrified. It was so distressing my mother asked me to switch the radio off. Just before I got to the switch the Kabul lady said she was facing a new holocaust.
This discussion has been closed.