Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

BBC Sports Personality of the Year – Doubting Dina Asher Smith – politicalbetting.com

1356

Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    kle4 said:

    Camila Tominey is not impressed:


    "one remains under the disturbing impression that even after the promised changes come in August, we will remain trapped in this unachievable quest for zero Covid, potentially forever."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/16/will-boris-ever-defy-doom-gloom-scientists/


    Nor is the Spectator.

    I wonder if Boris ever wonders how/why all the news bodies he worked for are so anti his flagship public policy?

    The thing is that The Telegraph and Spectator are generally on the right politically speaking whereas Boris is trying to appeal to the centre, so to speak.
    Boris is not appealing to the right, centre or left, but the nostalgic. As someone who would consider themself in the centre, he is almost as far from appealing to me as you can get.
    But is that in terms of his policy offer or his presentation and tone?
    There is little in his policy offer that has any substance in at all. Take social care - his policy was he was the only one with a plan to sort it, but nothing ever happens. How I am supposed to judge if I support his plan or not? I can only assume there is no plan, it is all bluster and sunny optimism. It cannot be separated from the tone and presentation.
    Johnson has always been a bullshitter con man.

    There is no intellectual or policy hinterland.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging SeanT...

    Not content with destroying the livelihoods of Hauliers, Farmers, Fishermen, Actors & Musicians, Lying @BorisJohnson has now turned his attention to Authors & Publishers. The ‘post Brexit’ plan will significantly impact intellectual property rights & smother the book industry.
    🤬

    https://twitter.com/Jgs_x/status/1416281211526340610

    What’s he doing? Unwinding the stupid rules that France pushed through against British opposition?
    Issue is covered here https://twitter.com/cmlwilson/status/1413750228281352192?s=21 and https://www.saveourbooks.org.uk/about

    Following our departure from the European Union, the UK government is currently consulting on a change to the UK intellectual property framework which could have wide-ranging impacts for UK authors, publishers and the wider book sector.
    You’ve probably never heard of it, but this change is to something called the UK’s “exhaustion regime”, which sets the rules for parallel imports of IP-protected goods into the UK. The current exhaustion regime allows UK authors and publishers to price appropriately for international markets and stops the unauthorised importing of international (non-EEA) copies of books into the UK, undercutting the domestic market. This copyright protection is crucial for UK authors selling their works abroad.
    So they want trade restrictions to allow them to charge a higher price? And how does that benefit the consumer?
    It benefits the author to the extent that they earn enough royalties to be able to afford the time required to write another book. Knocks those royalties down 80% and the only people making more money will be the publisher /bookshop.


  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Camila Tominey is not impressed:


    "one remains under the disturbing impression that even after the promised changes come in August, we will remain trapped in this unachievable quest for zero Covid, potentially forever."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/16/will-boris-ever-defy-doom-gloom-scientists/


    Nor is the Spectator.

    I wonder if Boris ever wonders how/why all the news bodies he worked for are so anti his flagship public policy?

    The thing is that The Telegraph and Spectator are generally on the right politically speaking whereas Boris is trying to appeal to the centre, so to speak.
    Boris is not appealing to the right, centre or left, but the nostalgic. As someone who would consider themself in the centre, he is almost as far from appealing to me as you can get.
    But is that in terms of his policy offer or his presentation and tone?
    There is little in his policy offer that has any substance in at all. Take social care - his policy was he was the only one with a plan to sort it, but nothing ever happens. How I am supposed to judge if I support his plan or not? I can only assume there is no plan, it is all bluster and sunny optimism. It cannot be separated from the tone and presentation.
    Ditto policy on obesity. We heard all about that when he emerged from hospital after a bad fright.

    Though something might be happening at last.
    He commissioned someone to come up with a report and recommendations, but then says he does not like the recommendations. Ultimately thats kind of fine, they are in charge, but if they just want to do what they want, dont bother with getting recommendations, just do it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Blimey it is hot out there already. :sweat_smile:

    18.5C at 0700 here by the sea

    Tomorrow may turn out to be the hottest day of the year
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523



    Is that directed at me? If so, it's rather misdirected, as I don't think Johnson should be PM, I voted remain, I was a Rory Stewart fan, and see myself as centrist. ;)

    My point was that MPs who are visible in, and work for, their constituencies are better for their constituents than ones who see Westminster as their focus. I gave examples in both Labour and the Conservatives to back that point up...

    I was always more of a constituency MP than a Westminster MP, partly because I was the only Labour MP there, ever, and saw it as part of my mission to hold the line, and partly because I simply liked my constituents and wanted to help make their lives better.

    The question, though, is whether promoting your area and helping lots of individuals is actually better for them than achieving a small change in national policy that helps tens of thousands of them in a small way. Clearly you should try to do both, but even working 16/7 there are limits and you have to focus. It's not obvious where the balance lies, especially as if you concentrate on Westminster you will increase your influence (become a Minister, get on influential select committees) and increase the chance that what you think are your good ideas will get listened to - but you will lose votes to people locally who think you're invisible.

    In the end most MPs concentrate on what they feel they do best and find most satisfying. Like most people in any walk of life, I suppose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    It would be easier and more efficient to jab schoolchildren at school, and schools are big enough to justify turning them into vaccination centres for a day or two at the start of the Autumn term.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited July 2021
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging SeanT...

    Not content with destroying the livelihoods of Hauliers, Farmers, Fishermen, Actors & Musicians, Lying @BorisJohnson has now turned his attention to Authors & Publishers. The ‘post Brexit’ plan will significantly impact intellectual property rights & smother the book industry.
    🤬

    https://twitter.com/Jgs_x/status/1416281211526340610

    What’s he doing? Unwinding the stupid rules that France pushed through against British opposition?
    Issue is covered here https://twitter.com/cmlwilson/status/1413750228281352192?s=21 and https://www.saveourbooks.org.uk/about

    Following our departure from the European Union, the UK government is currently consulting on a change to the UK intellectual property framework which could have wide-ranging impacts for UK authors, publishers and the wider book sector.
    You’ve probably never heard of it, but this change is to something called the UK’s “exhaustion regime”, which sets the rules for parallel imports of IP-protected goods into the UK. The current exhaustion regime allows UK authors and publishers to price appropriately for international markets and stops the unauthorised importing of international (non-EEA) copies of books into the UK, undercutting the domestic market. This copyright protection is crucial for UK authors selling their works abroad.
    So they want trade restrictions to allow them to charge a higher price? And how does that benefit the consumer?
    It benefits the author to the extent that they earn enough royalties to be able to afford the time required to write another book. Knocks those royalties down 80% and the only people making more money will be the publisher /bookshop.
    Of benefit mostly to companies like Amazon, who brutally treat small publishers and authors.

    It is a feature of modern capitalism that the workers who do actual hard stuff, whether Britishfarmers producing milk, American Truckers, Uber drivers and now white collar people like British authors are driven into poverty or out of business by monopolistic practices of international companies.

    Alienation of labour is a real issue, not just Marxist theory.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    So, set out to take the wife for her first visit to the States to see her family for two years, car broke down on the M26, she missed her flight. How’s everyone else’s day?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I still think you guys are looking at the wrong graphs now.

    The graphs that matter are the ones showing the UK has not remotely paid its way in 18 months, is not paying its way now and will not be unless we re-open fully. The money has run out and the leeway to preventing a very very serious economic situation is running out.

    And schools won't be closing unless we really want a generation of dunces taking us into the third world.

    Covid? we've done what we can. You know my views. We have done far, far more than we ever should have and the costs of that are all in the pipeline.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    It would be easier and more efficient to jab schoolchildren at school, and schools are big enough to justify turning them into vaccination centres for a day or two at the start of the Autumn term.
    Yea but it’s too late for that. Closing a single school again would be unconscionable, need to vax kids now or declare testing kids is over.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    I'm starting to think we might need a lockdown. (We obviously shouldn't be lifting *all* restrictions right now).

    I read that SAGE advised current conditions are most likely to lead to vaccine escape. That would be a total disaster.

    That said - even if we lockdown... rest of developed world is not going to do so consistently.

    That said again... a vaccine resistant variant in say the US does not mean we need to import it (although with Johnson we probably will...).

    So overall I'm torn.
    Difficult decisions certainly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    Yep. Nothing will happen other that some whizzy shiny projects like transport and new roads just to say something is happening.

    A massive part of the solution is a huge revival of local government with proper resources. That is talked about by all governments and never happens. Sorting out property tax is part of this. Again wont happen.

    The honest truth is even if Johnson believes it all himself (debatable?) he doesn't have the Wilsonian wiles to navigate and cajole whitehall and Cabinet into delivery.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    DougSeal said:

    So, set out to take the wife for her first visit to the States to see her family for two years, car broke down on the M26, she missed her flight. How’s everyone else’s day?

    Better thanks. Sorry to hear that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714



    Is that directed at me? If so, it's rather misdirected, as I don't think Johnson should be PM, I voted remain, I was a Rory Stewart fan, and see myself as centrist. ;)

    My point was that MPs who are visible in, and work for, their constituencies are better for their constituents than ones who see Westminster as their focus. I gave examples in both Labour and the Conservatives to back that point up...

    I was always more of a constituency MP than a Westminster MP, partly because I was the only Labour MP there, ever, and saw it as part of my mission to hold the line, and partly because I simply liked my constituents and wanted to help make their lives better.

    The question, though, is whether promoting your area and helping lots of individuals is actually better for them than achieving a small change in national policy that helps tens of thousands of them in a small way. Clearly you should try to do both, but even working 16/7 there are limits and you have to focus. It's not obvious where the balance lies, especially as if you concentrate on Westminster you will increase your influence (become a Minister, get on influential select committees) and increase the chance that what you think are your good ideas will get listened to - but you will lose votes to people locally who think you're invisible.

    In the end most MPs concentrate on what they feel they do best and find most satisfying. Like most people in any walk of life, I suppose.
    Do you think MPs should have larger teams? Always seems odd to me that if a decent local MP needs to work 16/7 then something is wrong. A lot of this work e.g. chasing DWP, could be done by a team?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2021
    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Talking of public school PMs, interesting article by Lord Adonis on the resurgence of Eton at the top of politics through Boris of course but Cameron too before him, something never anticipated after the grammar school educated Wilson beat the Old Etonian toff Home in 1964.

    Ironically public school, Fettes educated Blair beating grammar school educated Major in 1997 was pivotal in enabling public school leaders to return to the top again. He also argues the decline of the grammars which produced confident, polished, very bright state educated politicians like Healey and Jenkins has also reduced the ability of Labour politicians in particular to take on the public school Tories, especially as the likes of Eton have become more academically selective and more the schools of the sons of the very rich than the old aristocracy
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/boris-johnson-profile-eton-prime-minister
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    DougSeal said:

    So, set out to take the wife for her first visit to the States to see her family for two years, car broke down on the M26, she missed her flight. How’s everyone else’s day?

    Ooft. That's not good. Hopefully your travel insurance will pay out at least.

    I'm relaxing in a bath after my morning cycle.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
    Thing is it IS the case though. Look at the deaths graph. Compared to previous waves the deaths are just in the noise right now. The danger is that the nhs gets swamped impacting on other services, not of a huge wave of death any more.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm starting to think we might need a lockdown. (We obviously shouldn't be lifting *all* restrictions right now).

    I read that SAGE advised current conditions are most likely to lead to vaccine escape. That would be a total disaster.

    That said - even if we lockdown... rest of developed world is not going to do so consistently.

    That said again... a vaccine resistant variant in say the US does not mean we need to import it (although with Johnson we probably will...).

    So overall I'm torn.
    Difficult decisions certainly.

    Do you get money from the public purse in the form of salary or pension? If so, is it OK if we slash that in return for your new lockdown? OK if we reduce the services you get because we are not generating enough wealth to pay for them because of restrictions?

    Because in reality, that is now the only 'difficult choice' we face.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:
    An empty cabinet would be an improvement
    Whitehall would likely do a better job without Westminster.
    You think this democracy lark has run its course?
    No democracy for Scotland, if FUDHY is to be believed. If direct rule is so fabby then why not for England too?
    I have only advocated respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and the government continuing to refuse a legal indyref2.

    Direct rule would mean scrapping Holyrood and restoring direct rule from Westminster as pre 1999.

    As it is Scotland still has its own Parliament but not England
    What does it matter if Scotland has its own parliament?

    'as long as there is a Tory UK government it does not matter what happens in Scotland'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:
    An empty cabinet would be an improvement
    Whitehall would likely do a better job without Westminster.
    You think this democracy lark has run its course?
    No democracy for Scotland, if FUDHY is to be believed. If direct rule is so fabby then why not for England too?
    I have only advocated respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and the government continuing to refuse a legal indyref2.

    Direct rule would mean scrapping Holyrood and restoring direct rule from Westminster as pre 1999.

    As it is Scotland still has its own Parliament but not England
    What does it matter if Scotland has its own parliament?

    'as long as there is a Tory UK government it does not matter what happens in Scotland'
    Correct. At the moment it does not matter as the Tories have a UK majority and an English majority.

    However it might matter in 2023/24 if Starmer gets in with SNP support but the Tories still have a majority in England and English voters have no domestic parliament to represent them as Scottish voters have now or even EVEL
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    edited July 2021
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    It would be easier and more efficient to jab schoolchildren at school, and schools are big enough to justify turning them into vaccination centres for a day or two at the start of the Autumn term.
    Yea but it’s too late for that. Closing a single school again would be unconscionable, need to vax kids now or declare testing kids is over.
    Vaccination at schools in September would not mean closing schools, any more than BCG or HPV vaccinations do. Class A reports to the gym at 9.30 to be jabbed then back to double English by 10. On to class B.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2021

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    What is the long term life cycle of covid (note I'm not talking about long covid here). How do you know we won't get relapses 40 years hence (like shingles from chicken pox).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:
    An empty cabinet would be an improvement
    Whitehall would likely do a better job without Westminster.
    You think this democracy lark has run its course?
    No democracy for Scotland, if FUDHY is to be believed. If direct rule is so fabby then why not for England too?
    I have only advocated respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and the government continuing to refuse a legal indyref2.

    Direct rule would mean scrapping Holyrood and restoring direct rule from Westminster as pre 1999.

    As it is Scotland still has its own Parliament but not England
    What does it matter if Scotland has its own parliament?

    'as long as there is a Tory UK government it does not matter what happens in Scotland'
    Correct. At the moment it does not matter as the Tories have a UK majority and an English majority.

    However it might matter in 2023/24 if Starmer gets in with SNP support but the Tories still have a majority in England and English voters have no domestic parliament to represent them as Scottish voters have now or even EVEL
    *sound of onions being fed into the Kenwood Chef slicing attachment in HYUFD's kitchen*

    Ah, just as I foretold the poor English Tories are all of a sudden downtrodden because they lack EVEL.

    Who abolished EVEL, I wonder? Mr Salmond? Mr Starmer? Mr Cameron?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    edited July 2021

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    As with other areas, BJ’s enthusiasm for levelling up seems something of a new discovery for him.

    https://youtu.be/CjFboRwGiqc

    As this thread suggests, once you’ve made the effort to sift some coherence from the gibberish there’s still the deep aversion to ceding power and responsibility which is the trademark of UK government.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1415763178244513794?s=21
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Scott_xP said:

    #Tokyo2020 organisers also confirm the number of positive cases linked to the Games has risen to 44 - at least five athletes. In Tokyo generally, cases are above 1,000 for a third straight day.
    https://twitter.com/SarahDawkins23/status/1416260373569806337

    Holding the Olympics is batshit crazy. Never mind having to do it only for IOC VIPs (though as its always just for them its quite nice that they can stop pretending they care about anyone else), the games are already being hit by the pox in the village and it hasn't started yet.

    What are the IOC's rules when the 8 people who qualified for the Mens 100m final all get exposed to Covid because three of them have just tested positive?
    IDK, I mean the whole concept of the Olympics is a horribly expensive and corrupt way to make TV programs and the Greeks should never have invented it but just looking at the corona numbers, they don't seem too bad? IIUC the cumulative case total is 44, of whom only 12 are listed as "non-resident of Japan." That's a drop in the ocean compared to Tokyo or Japan as a whole which are rocking 1000s of new cases *every day*. And the Olympics seem to be PCR-testing anything that moves, which Japan in general notoriously... isn't. So probably a lot of those infected cases would have been infected even if the Olympics hadn't existed, and thanks to the great international bribery festival they've actually been detected and can isolate.

    Meanwhile these people who are nearly all vaccinated are using hotels and restaurants, which would otherwise be hurting pretty bad. Previously the Japanese government tried to encourage people to eat and travel to minimize the economic damage, but those were unvaccinated people. Vaccinated PCR-tested foreigners seems better than unvaccinated untested Japanese people? I know there's the risk of importing new strains of the virus or whatever but delta is already here, it would have to be serious bad luck if one of them managed to bring the hitherto-undetected theta variant or whatever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
    Thing is it IS the case though. Look at the deaths graph. Compared to previous waves the deaths are just in the noise right now. The danger is that the nhs gets swamped impacting on other services, not of a huge wave of death any more.
    Well....the last set of SPI-M models are been significantly overshot in terms of hospitalisations.

    Now hopefully that is just the football / partially vaccinated going mad, and not that vaccine escape is on the low / below the level the government have used to make the opening up decision.

    Because if we do have 50-100k+ cases for several weeks and effectiveness is lower than thought, hospitals are going to get very very busy.

    The UK dataset is much bigger than Israels so hopefully we have a better estimate, just saying worth stating the government being comfortable with high cases is predicated on very high levels of vaccine effectiveness.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    As with other areas, BJ’s enthusiasm for levelling up seems something of a new discovery for him.

    https://youtu.be/CjFboRwGiqc

    As this thread suggests, once you’ve made the effort to sift some coherence from the gibberish, there’s still the deep aversion to ceding power and responsibility which is the trademark of UK government.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1415763178244513794?s=21
    "You can do whatever you like so long as it's what we want."

    I was also struck by the apparent lack of mention of devolution in Mr Johnson's culinary-metaphor-larded speech. To send money to Glasgow, for instance, is prima facie ultra vires. Unless ...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Levelling up – one key metric Mattinson reported in her book, Beyond the Red Wall, was the loss of flagship shops like Debenhams or Marks and Spencer. Another, of course, was jobs, especially closure of a town's main employer.

    Just building a new link road won't cut it, though might be necessary to attract new private investment.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    What is the long term life cycle of covid (note I'm not talking about long covid here). How do you know we won't get relapses 40 years hence (like shingles from chicken pox).
    Do old people advocating child covid vaccination really care about children, or do they, as Neil Oliver said, simply want to use the young as extra building blocks in their own wall of protection?

    Given the way old people have simply shrugged at the privations of the young during the pandemic, I reckon the jury is out on that one.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    edited July 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm starting to think we might need a lockdown. (We obviously shouldn't be lifting *all* restrictions right now).

    I read that SAGE advised current conditions are most likely to lead to vaccine escape. That would be a total disaster.

    That said - even if we lockdown... rest of developed world is not going to do so consistently.

    That said again... a vaccine resistant variant in say the US does not mean we need to import it (although with Johnson we probably will...).

    So overall I'm torn.
    Difficult decisions certainly.

    717 patients were admitted with Covid on the 12th. This follows 34,114 cases 7 days earlier on the 5th.

    If we compare to the wave last autumn we had a high of 31,510 cases on November 2nd, by which point we were already in lockdown 2. This lead to a maximum of 1,971 admissions later in the month.

    In the Christmas wave we went through 34,000 cases on December 14th, and by the 21st 2,367 Covid admissions were made to hospital.

    The schools closed in Scotland and cases are declining. The same will probably happen in England. Hopefully we'll vaccinate teenagers which will help in the autumn.

    So, the vaccines do work. The situation isn't great, and would have been better if quarantine had been introduced on India earlier. I'm exercising personal caution, but though I was an advocate of a zero Covid approach before vaccines had been approved, I think a government instruction to stay home now, or to close businesses, would not be a reasonable or proportionate response.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2021

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    What is the long term life cycle of covid (note I'm not talking about long covid here). How do you know we won't get relapses 40 years hence (like shingles from chicken pox).
    Do old people advocating child covid vaccination really care about children, or do they, as Neil Oliver said, simply want to use the young as extra building blocks in their own wall of protection?

    Given the way old people have simply shrugged at the privations of the young during the pandemic, I reckon the jury is out on that one.
    That doesn't answer my question, does it?

    And it's an important question because it may have a significant impact of the long term quality of life of our children although it seems you also don't care about that..

    Equally I'm getting to the point where I want to give people a 15 question survey before I start to believe they have even the vaguest clue about Covid. There are some people on here who pass that test, but Neil Oliver isn't one of them (PS does he have a book to flog or is the lack of a publishing deal / TV program his issue). But a historian isn't an expert on vaccination, public health nor 21st century pandemics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:
    An empty cabinet would be an improvement
    Whitehall would likely do a better job without Westminster.
    You think this democracy lark has run its course?
    No democracy for Scotland, if FUDHY is to be believed. If direct rule is so fabby then why not for England too?
    I have only advocated respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and the government continuing to refuse a legal indyref2.

    Direct rule would mean scrapping Holyrood and restoring direct rule from Westminster as pre 1999.

    As it is Scotland still has its own Parliament but not England
    What does it matter if Scotland has its own parliament?

    'as long as there is a Tory UK government it does not matter what happens in Scotland'
    Correct. At the moment it does not matter as the Tories have a UK majority and an English majority.

    However it might matter in 2023/24 if Starmer gets in with SNP support but the Tories still have a majority in England and English voters have no domestic parliament to represent them as Scottish voters have now or even EVEL
    *sound of onions being fed into the Kenwood Chef slicing attachment in HYUFD's kitchen*

    Ah, just as I foretold the poor English Tories are all of a sudden downtrodden because they lack EVEL.

    Who abolished EVEL, I wonder? Mr Salmond? Mr Starmer? Mr Cameron?
    Mr Gove is driving its abolition it seems and Mr Gove is of course a Scot.

    I disagree with Mr Gove on EVEL as I have frequently said
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
    Thing is it IS the case though. Look at the deaths graph. Compared to previous waves the deaths are just in the noise right now. The danger is that the nhs gets swamped impacting on other services, not of a huge wave of death any more.
    Well....the last set of SPI-M models are been significantly overshot in terms of hospitalisations.

    Now hopefully that is just the football / partially vaccinated going mad, and not that vaccine escape is on the low / below the level the government have used to make the opening up decision.

    Because if we do have 50-100k+ cases for several weeks and effectiveness is lower than thought, hospitals are going to get very very busy.

    The UK dataset is much bigger than Israels so hopefully we have a better estimate, just saying worth stating the government being comfortable with high cases is predicated on very high levels of vaccine effectiveness.
    I don’t disagree about the hospitals. That they will be under pressure is set now, but the signs from Zoe ap are promising, and despite the mocking of @alistair and others, case rate increase has been slowing. Plus we’ve seen what happened in Scotland when the schools shut.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    On topic, thanks Pip, really interesting piece. One factor for Asher-Smith. Given the heightened awareness around race, especially post-the controversy re the England football team, that might help her.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    Levelling up – one key metric Mattinson reported in her book, Beyond the Red Wall, was the loss of flagship shops like Debenhams or Marks and Spencer. Another, of course, was jobs, especially closure of a town's main employer.

    Just building a new link road won't cut it, though might be necessary to attract new private investment.

    This has also been a failure both under Labour and Tories of just transplanting a government department out to a cheaper area of the country. The public sector move, a good proportion move with the job out of London and they are well compensated and able to buy nice house etc, but it hasn't really shown to simulate widespread private investment, so you still have a big differential between the haves (public sector job) and the have nots.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    edited July 2021
    Carnyx said:

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    As with other areas, BJ’s enthusiasm for levelling up seems something of a new discovery for him.

    https://youtu.be/CjFboRwGiqc

    As this thread suggests, once you’ve made the effort to sift some coherence from the gibberish, there’s still the deep aversion to ceding power and responsibility which is the trademark of UK government.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1415763178244513794?s=21
    "You can do whatever you like so long as it's what we want."

    I was also struck by the apparent lack of mention of devolution in Mr Johnson's culinary-metaphor-larded speech. To send money to Glasgow, for instance, is prima facie ultra vires. Unless ...
    I think they’ve already said that they’re going to make it clear that UK spending is badged as such. Whether having a plaque saying a bridge/tunnel/teleporter connecting us to our cousins in NI is paid for by the Great White Father in London will result in mass gratitude is moot.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956

    Levelling up – one key metric Mattinson reported in her book, Beyond the Red Wall, was the loss of flagship shops like Debenhams or Marks and Spencer. Another, of course, was jobs, especially closure of a town's main employer.

    Just building a new link road won't cut it, though might be necessary to attract new private investment.

    State department stores! GUM here we come.
  • I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:
    An empty cabinet would be an improvement
    Whitehall would likely do a better job without Westminster.
    You think this democracy lark has run its course?
    No democracy for Scotland, if FUDHY is to be believed. If direct rule is so fabby then why not for England too?
    I have only advocated respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and the government continuing to refuse a legal indyref2.

    Direct rule would mean scrapping Holyrood and restoring direct rule from Westminster as pre 1999.

    As it is Scotland still has its own Parliament but not England
    What does it matter if Scotland has its own parliament?

    'as long as there is a Tory UK government it does not matter what happens in Scotland'
    Correct. At the moment it does not matter as the Tories have a UK majority and an English majority.

    However it might matter in 2023/24 if Starmer gets in with SNP support but the Tories still have a majority in England and English voters have no domestic parliament to represent them as Scottish voters have now or even EVEL
    *sound of onions being fed into the Kenwood Chef slicing attachment in HYUFD's kitchen*

    Ah, just as I foretold the poor English Tories are all of a sudden downtrodden because they lack EVEL.

    Who abolished EVEL, I wonder? Mr Salmond? Mr Starmer? Mr Cameron?
    Mr Gove is driving its abolition it seems and Mr Gove is of course a Scot.

    I disagree with Mr Gove on EVEL as I have frequently said
    Irrelevant where he comes from.

    He's representing an English Tory-held constituency. So he is damaging his constituents' rights in your view.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
    Thing is it IS the case though. Look at the deaths graph. Compared to previous waves the deaths are just in the noise right now. The danger is that the nhs gets swamped impacting on other services, not of a huge wave of death any more.
    Well....the last set of SPI-M models are been significantly overshot in terms of hospitalisations.

    Now hopefully that is just the football / partially vaccinated going mad, and not that vaccine escape is on the low / below the level the government have used to make the opening up decision.

    Because if we do have 50-100k+ cases for several weeks and effectiveness is lower than thought, hospitals are going to get very very busy.

    The UK dataset is much bigger than Israels so hopefully we have a better estimate, just saying worth stating the government being comfortable with high cases is predicated on very high levels of vaccine effectiveness.
    I don’t disagree about the hospitals. That they will be under pressure is set now, but the signs from Zoe ap are promising, and despite the mocking of @alistair and others, case rate increase has been slowing. Plus we’ve seen what happened in Scotland when the schools shut.
    That has to be the hope, kids at schools plus the footy, both over for the summer now and in a week we start to see it dissipating. But 100k a day cases and vaccine effectiveness on severe disease at the 90% (or below) level rather than high 90s and its going to be rubber underpants tome.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eek said:

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    What is the long term life cycle of covid (note I'm not talking about long covid here). How do you know we won't get relapses 40 years hence (like shingles from chicken pox).
    Do old people advocating child covid vaccination really care about children, or do they, as Neil Oliver said, simply want to use the young as extra building blocks in their own wall of protection?

    Given the way old people have simply shrugged at the privations of the young during the pandemic, I reckon the jury is out on that one.
    That doesn't answer my question, does it?

    And it's an important question because it may have a significant impact of the long term quality of life of our children although it seems you also don't care about that..
    Nobody has posted more than me on here about the suffering of the young during this pandemic. Its been virtually ignored by most other posters.

    My answer to you would be that vaccine development has taken place over a much shorter time that normal, for obvious reasons, and so for young people there could be questions there too.

    We don't know if these new development vaccines might cause problems much later in life. For older people, that's an academic worry given they will tend to pass away much earlier. For young people, it is a question to consider.

    And I don't think we should be administering vaccines to young people over a disease that barely affects them, until we know more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited July 2021

    Carnyx said:

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    As with other areas, BJ’s enthusiasm for levelling up seems something of a new discovery for him.

    https://youtu.be/CjFboRwGiqc

    As this thread suggests, once you’ve made the effort to sift some coherence from the gibberish, there’s still the deep aversion to ceding power and responsibility which is the trademark of UK government.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1415763178244513794?s=21
    "You can do whatever you like so long as it's what we want."

    I was also struck by the apparent lack of mention of devolution in Mr Johnson's culinary-metaphor-larded speech. To send money to Glasgow, for instance, is prima facie ultra vires. Unless ...
    I think they’ve already said that they’re going to make it clear that UK spending is badged as such. Whether having a plaque saying a bridge/tunnel/teleporter connecting us to our cousins in NI say is paid for by the Great White Father in London will result in mass gratitude is moot.
    Well, we do see the denizens of London and Essex expressing their gratitude by pouring libations on the foundation slabs of the constructs which they have touchingly named Boris Island Airport and Boris Garden Bridge.

    I wonder if he puts Mr Grayling et al in charge of the projects?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    We vaccinate children against rubella, not to protect them but rather to protect vulnerable adults, mumps too to an extent, pregnant women and fertile men respectively. So there is precedent.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm starting to think we might need a lockdown. (We obviously shouldn't be lifting *all* restrictions right now).

    I read that SAGE advised current conditions are most likely to lead to vaccine escape. That would be a total disaster.

    That said - even if we lockdown... rest of developed world is not going to do so consistently.

    That said again... a vaccine resistant variant in say the US does not mean we need to import it (although with Johnson we probably will...).

    So overall I'm torn.
    Difficult decisions certainly.

    Do you get money from the public purse in the form of salary or pension? If so, is it OK if we slash that in return for your new lockdown? OK if we reduce the services you get because we are not generating enough wealth to pay for them because of restrictions?

    Because in reality, that is now the only 'difficult choice' we face.
    No - I don't. And frankly I'm much more worried about the loss of service in the NHS -> which is getting overwhelmed by COVID again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    Carnyx said:

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    As with other areas, BJ’s enthusiasm for levelling up seems something of a new discovery for him.

    https://youtu.be/CjFboRwGiqc

    As this thread suggests, once you’ve made the effort to sift some coherence from the gibberish, there’s still the deep aversion to ceding power and responsibility which is the trademark of UK government.

    https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1415763178244513794?s=21
    "You can do whatever you like so long as it's what we want."

    I was also struck by the apparent lack of mention of devolution in Mr Johnson's culinary-metaphor-larded speech. To send money to Glasgow, for instance, is prima facie ultra vires. Unless ...
    I think they’ve already said that they’re going to make it clear that UK spending is badged as such. Whether having a plaque saying a bridge/tunnel/teleporter connecting us to our cousins in NI is paid for by the Great White Father in London will result in mass gratitude is moot.
    Further thought: there's such a thing as planning permissions. And road building is devolved.

    And the natives might not want a motorway built through their backyard. A link ending in the Rhinns would need massive road improvement all the way to Carlisle. In SCON land.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    We vaccinate children against rubella, not to protect them but rather to protect vulnerable adults, mumps too to an extent, pregnant women and fertile men respectively. So there is precedent.
    And the children also benefit when they are older, presumably?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 2021
    O/T

    "Why elite parents are supporting Critical Race Theory
    They want their children to maintain their privileged position"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    Quote:

    "“Wokeness” in today’s America is arguably the primary sorting mechanism for the elite. Given that elite parents by and large want their own kids to remain inside the elite, a sorting mechanism has to have some accessible way of stacking the deck, where preparation and foreknowledge conspire to help some at the expense of the hoi polloi. Being able to ”cancel” people under various pretenses is not so much an anti-social bug in a system of elite selection; it is a necessary and vital feature; cancelling someone is the same as taking them out of the race.
    - MALCOM KYEYUNE"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited July 2021
    "Updated UK COVID-19 reported deaths comparison against model. Deaths are now trending up towards my [Steve Jackson's] delta variant scenario projection (from 16 June)"

    https://twitter.com/goalprojection/status/1415430787374145541?s=20

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Why elite parents are supporting Critical Race Theory
    They want their children to maintain their privileged position"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    Well yes, wokeism now dominates academia, Silicon Valley, Hollywood and increasingly corporate America too and now Biden and Harris are in the Oval Office and the Democrats control Congress DC as well.

    So unless you live in the southern or border states where Trumpism is still strong, if you want your children to become part of the elite they need to become woke
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    HYUFD said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Talking of public school PMs, interesting article by Lord Adonis on the resurgence of Eton at the top of politics through Boris of course but Cameron too before him, something never anticipated after the grammar school educated Wilson beat the Old Etonian toff Home in 1964.

    Ironically public school, Fettes educated Blair beating grammar school educated Major in 1997 was pivotal in enabling public school leaders to return to the top again. He also argues the decline of the grammars which produced confident, polished, very bright state educated politicians like Healey and Jenkins has also reduced the ability of Labour politicians in particular to take on the public school Tories, especially as the likes of Eton have become more academically selective and more the schools of the sons of the very rich than the old aristocracy
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/boris-johnson-profile-eton-prime-minister
    A fascinating article which contains what teachers call a testable fact for compilers of trivia quizzes: whose was the only government in British history not to have contained a single Etonian? Answer at the link above.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Be afraid, Clarkson (and sundry other gammons).

    https://twitter.com/hybrid572/status/1416291278183075840?s=21



  • I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    DougSeal said:

    So, set out to take the wife for her first visit to the States to see her family for two years, car broke down on the M26, she missed her flight. How’s everyone else’s day?

    Ooft. That's not good. Hopefully your travel insurance will pay out at least.

    I'm relaxing in a bath after my morning cycle.
    My dishwasher caught fire the other night. Fortunately we were awake and in, so smelled it, and I put it out by switching it off at the wall, so fitting the new one today. Rather smelly as was mid cycle so half full of dirty water.

    It was a John Lewis model, about 15 years old. I wouldn't have minded if it had just packed up, but an electrical fire in the control panel is a bit more alarming. It could have been nasty if we were in bed. Have bought a new kitchen fire extinguisher and fire blanket, and will contact JL to inform them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited July 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Talking of public school PMs, interesting article by Lord Adonis on the resurgence of Eton at the top of politics through Boris of course but Cameron too before him, something never anticipated after the grammar school educated Wilson beat the Old Etonian toff Home in 1964.

    Ironically public school, Fettes educated Blair beating grammar school educated Major in 1997 was pivotal in enabling public school leaders to return to the top again. He also argues the decline of the grammars which produced confident, polished, very bright state educated politicians like Healey and Jenkins has also reduced the ability of Labour politicians in particular to take on the public school Tories, especially as the likes of Eton have become more academically selective and more the schools of the sons of the very rich than the old aristocracy
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/boris-johnson-profile-eton-prime-minister
    A fascinating article which contains what teachers call a testable fact for compilers of trivia quizzes: whose was the only government in British history not to have contained a single Etonian? Answer at the link above.
    Should have specified, after 1707; Cromwell's dictatorship for one would qualify otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    We vaccinate children against rubella, not to protect them but rather to protect vulnerable adults, mumps too to an extent, pregnant women and fertile men respectively. So there is precedent.
    And the children also benefit when they are older, presumably?

    Yes, same as covid.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Why elite parents are supporting Critical Race Theory
    They want their children to maintain their privileged position"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    Quote:

    "“Wokeness” in today’s America is arguably the primary sorting mechanism for the elite. Given that elite parents by and large want their own kids to remain inside the elite, a sorting mechanism has to have some accessible way of stacking the deck, where preparation and foreknowledge conspire to help some at the expense of the hoi polloi. Being able to ”cancel” people under various pretenses is not so much an anti-social bug in a system of elite selection; it is a necessary and vital feature; cancelling someone is the same as taking them out of the race.
    - MALCOM KYEYUNE"

    The rich prefer to talk about race rather than class.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    "Updated UK COVID-19 reported deaths comparison against model. Deaths are now trending up towards my [Steve Jackson's] delta variant scenario projection (from 16 June)"

    https://twitter.com/goalprojection/status/1415430787374145541?s=20

    image

    Given that deaths lag infections that would be a very acceptable outcome.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297

    rkrkrk said:

    I'm starting to think we might need a lockdown. (We obviously shouldn't be lifting *all* restrictions right now).

    I read that SAGE advised current conditions are most likely to lead to vaccine escape. That would be a total disaster.

    That said - even if we lockdown... rest of developed world is not going to do so consistently.

    That said again... a vaccine resistant variant in say the US does not mean we need to import it (although with Johnson we probably will...).

    So overall I'm torn.
    Difficult decisions certainly.

    717 patients were admitted with Covid on the 12th. This follows 34,114 cases 7 days earlier on the 5th.

    If we compare to the wave last autumn we had a high of 31,510 cases on November 2nd, by which point we were already in lockdown 2. This lead to a maximum of 1,971 admissions later in the month.

    In the Christmas wave we went through 34,000 cases on December 14th, and by the 21st 2,367 Covid admissions were made to hospital.

    The schools closed in Scotland and cases are declining. The same will probably happen in England. Hopefully we'll vaccinate teenagers which will help in the autumn.

    So, the vaccines do work. The situation isn't great, and would have been better if quarantine had been introduced on India earlier. I'm exercising personal caution, but though I was an advocate of a zero Covid approach before vaccines had been approved, I think a government instruction to stay home now, or to close businesses, would not be a reasonable or proportionate response.
    Definitely the vaccines work now.

    The question is whether we are creating the conditions for them to not* work in future. Very hard to know -> but an appalling downside risk.

    If closing schools is all that's needed then we should have shut them a week or two early.

    Are cases truly falling in Scotland, or is there just less testing now schools are closed? Closing schools should make a big difference. Scotland is also sticking with masks I think?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    Well that and the ridiculous OTT setups of the Grand Tour.

    There is still "oh look I bought a massive tractor, silly me, how could I have not noticed it was too big for my barn"...but there is a lot more things that either naturally go wrong (him being kicked in the nuts by a sheep) or are just interesting situations e.g. COVID or the crazy weather that year, inserted with his funny quips.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Why elite parents are supporting Critical Race Theory
    They want their children to maintain their privileged position"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    Quote:

    "“Wokeness” in today’s America is arguably the primary sorting mechanism for the elite. Given that elite parents by and large want their own kids to remain inside the elite, a sorting mechanism has to have some accessible way of stacking the deck, where preparation and foreknowledge conspire to help some at the expense of the hoi polloi. Being able to ”cancel” people under various pretenses is not so much an anti-social bug in a system of elite selection; it is a necessary and vital feature; cancelling someone is the same as taking them out of the race.
    - MALCOM KYEYUNE"

    The rich prefer to talk about race rather than class.
    People say America is divided politically by race and that is partly true, 57% of whites voted for Trump compared to 87% of blacks who voted for Biden and 65% of Latinos who voted for Biden.

    However look more closely and it is really a divide of class and education, especially amongst the white population eg 51% of white college graduates voted for Biden compared to 67% of white non college graduates who voted for Trump.

    By contrast there was barely any difference by education level amongst non whites, in fact slightly more non white college graduates, 27%, voted for Trump than the 26% of non white non college graduates who voted for Trump

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Exit_polling
  • Guto Harri was the best presenter GB News had but he's been cancelled now because he doesn't say what they want to hear.

    Where are the freedom of speech brigade now?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Isn’t it? Not only very entertaining but subtly educational. I learned more about farming in Britain in those few episodes than many years of countryfile.

    The same narrative arc and styling as a Top Gear special too, which is clearly a Clarkson hallmark: Clarkson has whacky idea; others warn him it’s mad; cue a series of slapstick disasters and set-piece fish out of water scenes; then a sudden change of mood as a big vista opens up, things start working like clockwork, and Clarkson’s voice takes on a tone of wonder.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    Also the other "characters" in the show are real people who have worked that farm for years and just make for good telly by being themselves to Clarkson's Clarkson.

    May and Hammond are now caricatures of themselves...oh look Hammond has crashed again....May is driving really slowly....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    fox327 said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    They could be right. If so it will be because of the large number of unvaccinated people in the UK catching COVID, who are mainly young adults and children. The government will have a choice to either reintroduce restrictions or to vaccinate children and take steps such as vaccine passports to get more adults vaccinated. It is going to be very difficult to reintroduce restrictions.
    Well or more worryingly Israel are right and vaccine are far less effective versus Indian variant...

    The whole UK government policy is based on the fact after being fully vaccinated there is little to no reduction in effectiveness vs Kent variant. So they have been fairly comfortable with covid ripping through school kids, with thr presumption that unlike previous waves the oldies will be protected.

    If this isn't the case, big problemo.
    Just have to be immunity the old fashioned way then.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Why elite parents are supporting Critical Race Theory
    They want their children to maintain their privileged position"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/why-elite-parents-are-supporting-critical-race-theory/

    Quote:

    "“Wokeness” in today’s America is arguably the primary sorting mechanism for the elite. Given that elite parents by and large want their own kids to remain inside the elite, a sorting mechanism has to have some accessible way of stacking the deck, where preparation and foreknowledge conspire to help some at the expense of the hoi polloi. Being able to ”cancel” people under various pretenses is not so much an anti-social bug in a system of elite selection; it is a necessary and vital feature; cancelling someone is the same as taking them out of the race.
    - MALCOM KYEYUNE"

    Save Guto Harri!
  • IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    Also the other "characters" in the show are real people who have worked that farm for years and just make for good telly by being themselves to Clarkson's Clarkson.

    May and Hammond are now caricatures of themselves...oh look Hammond has crashed again....May is driving really slowly....
    Kaleb is my favourite, I suspect some of it is put on but he's very good at acting if so
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 2021

    IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    Also the other "characters" in the show are real people who have worked that farm for years and just make for good telly by being themselves to Clarkson's Clarkson.

    May and Hammond are now caricatures of themselves...oh look Hammond has crashed again....May is driving really slowly....
    May is good at general engineering programs, his Japan program wasn't bad either. Hammond, hmm I think he just got lucky by being part of the three tbh- likely wouldn't have made it on his own.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    eek said:

    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    What is the long term life cycle of covid (note I'm not talking about long covid here). How do you know we won't get relapses 40 years hence (like shingles from chicken pox).
    Do old people advocating child covid vaccination really care about children, or do they, as Neil Oliver said, simply want to use the young as extra building blocks in their own wall of protection?

    Given the way old people have simply shrugged at the privations of the young during the pandemic, I reckon the jury is out on that one.
    That doesn't answer my question, does it?

    And it's an important question because it may have a significant impact of the long term quality of life of our children although it seems you also don't care about that..
    Nobody has posted more than me on here about the suffering of the young during this pandemic. Its been virtually ignored by most other posters.

    My answer to you would be that vaccine development has taken place over a much shorter time that normal, for obvious reasons, and so for young people there could be questions there too.

    We don't know if these new development vaccines might cause problems much later in life. For older people, that's an academic worry given they will tend to pass away much earlier. For young people, it is a question to consider.

    And I don't think we should be administering vaccines to young people over a disease that barely affects them, until we know more.
    Worth noting that there is evidence of long term injury from covid, to balance against theoretical risks of vaccination. For example there is evidence that covid infection compromises male fertility:

    https://rep.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/rep/161/2/REP-20-0523.xml

    How long term the impact on sperm count is not yet clear, but potentially not a trivial concern.
  • https://twitter.com/GregClinker/status/1416304576530157571

    The kind of thing Labour has to contend with, how do they respond to comments like this?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    I have BBQ smoke!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    Also the other "characters" in the show are real people who have worked that farm for years and just make for good telly by being themselves to Clarkson's Clarkson.

    May and Hammond are now caricatures of themselves...oh look Hammond has crashed again....May is driving really slowly....
    Kaleb is my favourite, I suspect some of it is put on but he's very good at acting if so
    I think like a lot of reality tv it is an exaggerated version of himself.

    What you often find with "reality" tv shows is the first season or two, it is often they have picked people who are naturally good characters, some setups and editing, but let it play out...then as the seasons go on they always feel the need to engineer more and more extreme situations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    MaxPB said:

    I have BBQ smoke!

    Is it catching?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    I think too there is a welcome theme of how uneconomic some aspects of farming are. In the sheep's episode, he almost certainly was putting in a lot of work for a loss making enterprise.

    I should have asked my farmer friend who grazes my field about it, while we were chatting the other day. It is a strange business farming to an urban lad like me, though my world is equally bizarre to him. He was asking some medical advice and only understood when I explained by a livestock analogy. Meanwhile his explanation of the practice and economics of haymaking lost me fairly quickly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Everybody seems to love it...other than the Guardian.
    The Guardian are wrong.

    I guess he just needed to be away from May and Hammond for a bit, Grand Tour had got so terribly stale
    There are bits, particularly in the earlier episodes, when he relapses into acting the lad and playing for laughs - like when he tries herding sheep with a drone - but the strength of the series is that, even if some of the farming scenes were clearly staged, underneath it all he does give it his best shot and does genuinely seem to care.
    Also the other "characters" in the show are real people who have worked that farm for years and just make for good telly by being themselves to Clarkson's Clarkson.

    May and Hammond are now caricatures of themselves...oh look Hammond has crashed again....May is driving really slowly....
    May is good at general engineering programs, his Japan program wasn't bad either. Hammond, hmm I think he just got lucky by being part of the three tbh- likely wouldn't have made it on his own.
    More likely May needed to be discovered by Top Gear. Hammond iirc was already a local radio DJ who had presented ITV motoring programmes. James May was basically a print journalist famous for being sacked for *that* Autocar layout.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging SeanT...

    Not content with destroying the livelihoods of Hauliers, Farmers, Fishermen, Actors & Musicians, Lying @BorisJohnson has now turned his attention to Authors & Publishers. The ‘post Brexit’ plan will significantly impact intellectual property rights & smother the book industry.
    🤬

    https://twitter.com/Jgs_x/status/1416281211526340610

    What’s he doing? Unwinding the stupid rules that France pushed through against British opposition?
    Issue is covered here https://twitter.com/cmlwilson/status/1413750228281352192?s=21 and https://www.saveourbooks.org.uk/about

    Following our departure from the European Union, the UK government is currently consulting on a change to the UK intellectual property framework which could have wide-ranging impacts for UK authors, publishers and the wider book sector.
    You’ve probably never heard of it, but this change is to something called the UK’s “exhaustion regime”, which sets the rules for parallel imports of IP-protected goods into the UK. The current exhaustion regime allows UK authors and publishers to price appropriately for international markets and stops the unauthorised importing of international (non-EEA) copies of books into the UK, undercutting the domestic market. This copyright protection is crucial for UK authors selling their works abroad.
    So they want trade restrictions to allow them to charge a higher price? And how does that benefit the consumer?
    It benefits the author to the extent that they earn enough royalties to be able to afford the time required to write another book. Knocks those royalties down 80% and the only people making more money will be the publisher /bookshop.


    Assuming the publishers/bookshops want a continuous flow of product they will pay more.

    I remember when abolishing the net book agreement was going to torch our cultural hinterland
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    So, set out to take the wife for her first visit to the States to see her family for two years, car broke down on the M26, she missed her flight. How’s everyone else’s day?

    Crap. Sorry to hear that. Hope all sorted now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging SeanT...

    Not content with destroying the livelihoods of Hauliers, Farmers, Fishermen, Actors & Musicians, Lying @BorisJohnson has now turned his attention to Authors & Publishers. The ‘post Brexit’ plan will significantly impact intellectual property rights & smother the book industry.
    🤬

    https://twitter.com/Jgs_x/status/1416281211526340610

    What’s he doing? Unwinding the stupid rules that France pushed through against British opposition?
    Issue is covered here https://twitter.com/cmlwilson/status/1413750228281352192?s=21 and https://www.saveourbooks.org.uk/about

    Following our departure from the European Union, the UK government is currently consulting on a change to the UK intellectual property framework which could have wide-ranging impacts for UK authors, publishers and the wider book sector.
    You’ve probably never heard of it, but this change is to something called the UK’s “exhaustion regime”, which sets the rules for parallel imports of IP-protected goods into the UK. The current exhaustion regime allows UK authors and publishers to price appropriately for international markets and stops the unauthorised importing of international (non-EEA) copies of books into the UK, undercutting the domestic market. This copyright protection is crucial for UK authors selling their works abroad.
    So they want trade restrictions to allow them to charge a higher price? And how does that benefit the consumer?
    It benefits the author to the extent that they earn enough royalties to be able to afford the time required to write another book. Knocks those royalties down 80% and the only people making more money will be the publisher /bookshop.


    Assuming the publishers/bookshops want a continuous flow of product they will pay more.

    I remember when abolishing the net book agreement was going to torch our cultural hinterland
    Boris has written any number of books. I'm sure he can be persuaded to take an interest.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,251
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Gnud said:

    Those predicting peak next week....

    Coronavirus cases will stay high for MONTHS after passing 100,000 in two weeks' time and a new lockdown will be needed by September,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

    Jeremy Hunt as next PM looks value at 15.

    Perhaps the succession will go Eton-Charterhouse rather than Eton-Winchester to Rishi as so many expect.
    Yes, if Johnson falls because of "Freedom Day" incompetence then Hunt is well positioned. Not least because Johnson will take down most of his cabinet with him.
    A plausible take but about the most depressing thing I’ve heard in ages. Hunt with his “schools open in September… hard choices” has already ruined my weekend. They need to decide now. Do they care if kids catch covid? If so then vaccinate over the summer. If not, then stop testing testing them all together.
    There are some diseases that children absolutely need vaccinating against.

    Covid, surely, is not one of them.
    We vaccinate children against rubella, not to protect them but rather to protect vulnerable adults, mumps too to an extent, pregnant women and fertile men respectively. So there is precedent.
    And the children also benefit when they are older, presumably?

    Well, the hope is that the children live to grow up to be adult* - so yes....

    *I always liked PJ O'Rourke's comment on the early mines acts - "This created a great deal of unemployment among 12 year old boys. But it gave them the freedom to pursue other goals. Such as living to be 13."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Nige to GB News?

    'At 5pm today I will be making an announcement about a big career change. Watch this space.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797765/Nigel-Farage-announce-big-career-change-today-speculation-mounts-set-join-GB-News.html

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Sacha Lord
    @Sacha_Lord
    ·
    40m
    On Monday, each venue will apply different rules and take a different stance

    Please respect that

    Most of all, please respect the staff. Many will be returning to work for the first time. They may be anxious and service might be slightly slower.

    Let's just be kind to each other
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Male model? Craft baker? Another tired, old grift to squeeze money out of a deflating culture war?

    I’m plumping for the last one.

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1416321544914149377?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    you don't have to be an economist to see that by any calculation, Test and Trace is not a good use of resources: it's monstrously expensive and has limited impact.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9796645/The-pingdemic-debacle-lockdown-door-writes-PROFESSOR-DAVID-PATON.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    TimS said:

    I have to say Clarkson's Farm is superb, by far the best thing he's done in many a year

    Isn’t it? Not only very entertaining but subtly educational. I learned more about farming in Britain in those few episodes than many years of countryfile.

    The same narrative arc and styling as a Top Gear special too, which is clearly a Clarkson hallmark: Clarkson has whacky idea; others warn him it’s mad; cue a series of slapstick disasters and set-piece fish out of water scenes; then a sudden change of mood as a big vista opens up, things start working like clockwork, and Clarkson’s voice takes on a tone of wonder.

    And also quite how much financial capital and hence risk there is in setting up in farming; he had to spend a lot of £ on attachments for his tractor.

    You can see why co-operatives work so well in France and Italy, collectively buying expensive kit and then renting it out to its members on a non-profit basis. Whereas UK and US farmers have to buy all their own stuff.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    I’ve done a lot of reading on “Levelling Up” in the past week.

    Boris seems - as far as I can tell - passionate about the topic, and his boffins have figured out the the right policy shape.

    He has also appointed Neil O’Brien - MP for Harborough to champion - and Neil apparently has a good reputation. A proper white paper is due in the Autumn.

    The problem is going to be delivery, since;

    1. The cabinet are not all aligned. Particularly, he has strong Thatcherites in the key posts of Treasury and BEIS.

    2. To this properly *does* involve considerable investment. Given govt finances, that does raise a question of where this is to come from.
    2a. Traditional Tories suspect it must come “from the South”.

    3. In essence, the need is to invest in Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and Liverpool. There is no electoral benefit to the Tories in doing so.

    4. The governance reforms necessary do not carry support in the Tory shires.
    4a. Spending is one thing, but the Treasury would rather eat dirt than see money actually *devolved*.

    my fear is that this aint gonna happen.

    I'd have some confidence Leveling Up was more than a soundbite if the pretence that it won't disadvantage wealthy areas were dropped. You can't improve the relative prospects of the North cf the South without reducing the relative prospects of the South cf the North. This is not to say it's a zero sum game - it doesn't have to be in absolute terms - but "leveling" implies a focus on relativities and this IS a zero sum game.

    So I'll be listening out for some squeals from Surrey and if I hear them - and they're loud enough - this will indicate to me that Johnson is indeed hell bent on improving the lot of working class people in the sorts of places I grew up in. In which case good on him and although I could never vote for a Tory I might start calling him Boris.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Nige to GB News?

    'At 5pm today I will be making an announcement about a big career change. Watch this space.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797765/Nigel-Farage-announce-big-career-change-today-speculation-mounts-set-join-GB-News.html

    Well, I would be shocked, I tell you, shocked if this happens.

    Fox News UK by end of the year. Chasing ratings by ending up as snarling, outrage TV that way was only ever going to be the model that worked imho.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://twitter.com/GregClinker/status/1416304576530157571

    The kind of thing Labour has to contend with, how do they respond to comments like this?

    Johnson is levelling up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Male model? Craft baker? Another tired, old grift to squeeze money out of a deflating culture war?

    I’m plumping for the last one.

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1416321544914149377?s=21

    There's a vacancy for Doctor Who.
    He already takes a great interest in the presence of aliens.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    Nige to GB News?

    'At 5pm today I will be making an announcement about a big career change. Watch this space.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797765/Nigel-Farage-announce-big-career-change-today-speculation-mounts-set-join-GB-News.html

    Well, I would be shocked, I tell you, shocked if this happens.

    Fox News UK by end of the year. Chasing ratings by ending up as snarling, outrage TV that way was only ever going to be the model that worked imho.
    To be fair, didn't his show on LBC do surprisingly well? Then he overstepped the mark with BLM stuff and got the heave ho?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    1h
    Personal reflection on "freedom day". Until cases get much much lower, no indoor restaurants, pubs, museums, theatre, cinema etc for me.

    I don't want to get covid and I definitely don't want to pass it on to anyone else.

    Feels quite shit to be honest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991


    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    1h
    Personal reflection on "freedom day". Until cases get much much lower, no indoor restaurants, pubs, museums, theatre, cinema etc for me.

    I don't want to get covid and I definitely don't want to pass it on to anyone else.

    Feels quite shit to be honest.

    I am surprised she is even going to leave the house at all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    dixiedean said:

    Male model? Craft baker? Another tired, old grift to squeeze money out of a deflating culture war?

    I’m plumping for the last one.

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1416321544914149377?s=21

    There's a vacancy for Doctor Who.
    He already takes a great interest in the presence of aliens.
    And he does seem to get through female companions. One problem though. He would need two more hearts than he has at present.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Nige to GB News?

    'At 5pm today I will be making an announcement about a big career change. Watch this space.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797765/Nigel-Farage-announce-big-career-change-today-speculation-mounts-set-join-GB-News.html

    Maybe that is why McAndrew resigned?
This discussion has been closed.