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BoJo judged to have had his worst PMQs for a year – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 14 in General
imageBoJo judged to have had his worst PMQs for a year – politicalbetting.com

I’ve been out most of the day and have only just caught up with today’s PMQs when BoJo’s apparently ambivalent position on taking the knee came under scrutiny from the former DPP and now LAB leader, Starmer.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    edited July 14
    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 42
    Does it matter?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,896
    Long covid or just an indefensible position? Boris's rant came early: deliberately or did Boris lose count?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 14

    Pagan2 said:

    EU unveils sweeping climate change plan

    The scale of this 12-pronged plan is breathtaking. It will likely have an impact on every citizen of Europe in almost every aspect of their lives.

    One of the most eye-catching proposals is a carbon border tax on goods like steel, cement and fertilizer to ensure that European industry, which has to pay for permits to use carbon, can compete. However, the proposal is contentious and could spark a trade war with China and the US.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57833807

    The french will be dusting off those yellow jackets in 3, 2, 1....
    Are they out the cupboard and in the washing machine at the moment, because of Macron decisions over compulsory vaccinations and covid passports?
    The French are getting jabbed in droves now, thanks to Macron's sensible approach.

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1415328995017641984

    I did post here months ago that the French always bitch and moan, and like to think of themselves as anarchists, but actually they fall in line with the bureaucratic rules which govern their lives to an extent unknown here.
    We will have to see how it plays out. They are still 5-6% between the likes of Germany and Italy, despite having opened up to children ages ago.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    edited July 14
    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    For comparison with last Wednesday 20% more cases 50% more deaths.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568
    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 14
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would have thought any infections from the finals would start to show up in people until Thursday / Friday this week, then they probably wait a day to see if it is just their hay fever etc, then have to go and get tested, the results back etc.

    I would say more likely its early / mid next week for the big finals bump.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 547
    Johnson's body language was telling. He was sullen and niggly, like a little boy being told off by his teacher for picking his nose.
    And dont start me on his untidy, unkempt appearance. Johnson is a disgrace of a Prime minister.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568
    edited July 14
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    The reason I say next Friday is simply a function of fewer tests. Kids and teachers won't be doing tests all the time from Monday and that will filter into the numbers very quickly. The spike from the final will also have petered out by then as well.

    We've also got uncommonly good weather from today at least for the next couple of weeks which will also reduce indoor socialising as people will want to be in beer gardens and parks anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    NEW: Spain’s Constitutional Court rules that strict home confinement during the first wave of COVID-19 was unconstitutional
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Russia reports 786 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 23,827 new cases
  • CookieCookie Posts: 3,796
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    But opening up next week will have an impact, surely?
    I'm very pro-opening up but I don't see how it can't help but be negative on positives, so to speak.

    I Agree with MaxPB - right in the middle of expectations. But that's good, because expectations were a continued drop in the rate of increase (only about 15% up on last Weds).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    I think the thread header is correct

    How this affects the polling as we move forward I do not know, but it has not been a good spectacle with idiotic remarks from Natalie Elphicke and our own @HYUFD which I immediately called out

    Marcus Rashford is a role model, successful footballer, but more than that his campaign for free school meals has been completely non political.

    Also Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka are wonderful role models as well and the England team is a huge credit to the nstion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,570

    Pagan2 said:

    EU unveils sweeping climate change plan

    The scale of this 12-pronged plan is breathtaking. It will likely have an impact on every citizen of Europe in almost every aspect of their lives.

    One of the most eye-catching proposals is a carbon border tax on goods like steel, cement and fertilizer to ensure that European industry, which has to pay for permits to use carbon, can compete. However, the proposal is contentious and could spark a trade war with China and the US.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57833807

    The french will be dusting off those yellow jackets in 3, 2, 1....
    Are they out the cupboard and in the washing machine at the moment, because of Macron decisions over compulsory vaccinations and covid passports?
    The French are getting jabbed in droves now, thanks to Macron's sensible approach.

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1415328995017641984

    I did post here months ago that the French always bitch and moan, and like to think of themselves as anarchists, but actually they fall in line with the bureaucratic rules which govern their lives to an extent unknown here.
    We will have to see how it plays out. They are still 5-6% between the likes of Germany and Italy, despite having opened up to children ages ago.
    Some very big anti vaxx passport demos in France today, by the look of it....??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    The COVID dashboard hasn't updated hospital admissions for nearly a week now.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,638
    Cases by Nation

    England: 37,895 (up 37% week-on-week; up 34% on 7-day average week-on-week)
    Scotland: 2,636 (down 31% week-on-week; down 22% on 7-day average week-on-week)
    Wales: 1,135 (up 71% week-on-week; up 22% on 7-day average week-on-week)
    NI: 636 (up 12% week-on-week; up 29% on 7-day average week-on-week)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926
    https://order-order.com/2021/07/14/unions-demand-mps-wear-masks-in-parliament/

    Guido revealed that staffers will be made to mask up, whilst MPs will only be “encouraged” to wear face coverings. It is safe to say that staffers are not best pleased…

    I’m shocked that MPs are getting preferential treatment.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,960
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    As India and Scotland show when Delta starts going down cases fall off a cliff
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 14
    Forget taking the knee...this will really piss people off.

    Summer holiday plans for thousands of Britons were left on the brink of tatters today after it emerged the Balearic islands are set to be upgraded to the 'amber list' just a fortnight after they were approved for quarantine-free travel.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9786817/Ibiza-Mallorca-Menorca-added-amber-list.html

    The public don't mind restrictions, in fact they seem to quite like them (as long as for others), but being dicked about, especially over their holidays, that really gets people pissed and the media love the hard luck stories of Margaret and me ain't been on holiday for 20 years, 20 years I tell you, and here we are now, stranded abroad as all the flights have gone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 14

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    The point is no political party can survive ignoring the views of most of its voters, the same as no business can survive ignoring what its customers want
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    As India and Scotland show when Delta starts going down cases fall off a cliff
    I don't think anyone here is denying that fact (Scotland's figures prove the point) we are literally guessing when the peak is. Given the number of pings going off and the real rate of R0 for the delta variant I'm just thinking this week is slightly too early.

    Irony alone says the covid figures are going to increase as release day occurs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,829
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
    So long as you're not with Leon on UFOs as well, you're probably just in need of a holiday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 14
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    Pagan2 said:

    EU unveils sweeping climate change plan

    The scale of this 12-pronged plan is breathtaking. It will likely have an impact on every citizen of Europe in almost every aspect of their lives.

    One of the most eye-catching proposals is a carbon border tax on goods like steel, cement and fertilizer to ensure that European industry, which has to pay for permits to use carbon, can compete. However, the proposal is contentious and could spark a trade war with China and the US.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57833807

    The french will be dusting off those yellow jackets in 3, 2, 1....
    Are they out the cupboard and in the washing machine at the moment, because of Macron decisions over compulsory vaccinations and covid passports?
    The French are getting jabbed in droves now, thanks to Macron's sensible approach.

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1415328995017641984

    I did post here months ago that the French always bitch and moan, and like to think of themselves as anarchists, but actually they fall in line with the bureaucratic rules which govern their lives to an extent unknown here.
    We will have to see how it plays out. They are still 5-6% between the likes of Germany and Italy, despite having opened up to children ages ago.
    Some very big anti vaxx passport demos in France today, by the look of it....??
    Protests on Bastille Day - you surprise me...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,885

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    As India and Scotland show when Delta starts going down cases fall off a cliff
    Scotland also shows what happens when you stop testing children every day at school.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    edited July 14
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    The point is no political party can survive ignoring the views of most of its voters, the same as no business can survive ignoring what its customers want
    Every party needs to appeal to far more than its base and you and others in the party just do not get it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
    So long as you're not with Leon on UFOs as well, you're probably just in need of a holiday.
    Should we read anything into the old flint dildo knapper appears to gone on holiday somewhere and now they have loads of cases ;-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:
    There isn't the slightest evidence that Labour's position is improving. Yesterday's YouGov had them on 30%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,829
    edited July 14

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.

    Think of him as the Chris Tavaré of the socratic method.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,638
    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002

    I think the thread header is correct

    How this affects the polling as we move forward I do not know, but it has not been a good spectacle with idiotic remarks from Natalie Elphicke and our own @HYUFD which I immediately called out

    Marcus Rashford is a role model, successful footballer, but more than that his campaign for free school meals has been completely non political.

    Also Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka are wonderful role models as well and the England team is a huge credit to the nstion

    To an extent his campaign was party political, while 71% of Labour voters backed his campaign for free school meals in the holidays, Tory voters opposed his campaign by 47% to 40%
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1317126424587833344?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    Numbers right in the middle of expectations. It's actually not bad for case Wednesday, I think this week might actually have the peak as it will capture a lot of semi final and final related infections. I expect by Friday the weekly growth rate will be slightly up compared to now but the Friday after it will be negative and the Friday after that it will be very negative as schools and football are done.
    I would push your figures out another week or so (max cases will probably be next Friday not this Friday) and it will then slowly start descending from then.

    As India and Scotland show when Delta starts going down cases fall off a cliff
    Scotland also shows what happens when you stop testing children every day at school.
    Yup and that's why cases will drop from next week. Coupled with no big national events we should see cases drop from next week, maybe by Wednesday or Thursday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    There isn't the slightest evidence that Labour's position is improving. Yesterday's YouGov had them on 30%.
    No, there is clearly some movement from Tory to LD though
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
    So long as you're not with Leon on UFOs as well, you're probably just in need of a holiday.
    Well my holiday starts Friday.

    As for UFOs and Leon, I think he's desperate to receive an anal probe, from anyone/anything, so that explains his UFO/aliens obsession.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 14

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    The point is no political party can survive ignoring the views of most of its voters, the same as no business can survive ignoring what its customers want
    Every party needs to appeal to far more than its base and you and others in the party just do not get it
    Without its base it will not even be a main party eg May's Tory Party was rapidly falling behind the Brexit Party in Spring 2019 let alone Labour until Boris took over
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,960
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    There isn't the slightest evidence that Labour's position is improving. Yesterday's YouGov had them on 30%.
    If you read the thread headers on this site you would think that it was Labour who were 8-12% in front.

    Apparently this is a good time for the Labour leader despite polling less than IDS.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262
    HYUFD said:

    I think the thread header is correct

    How this affects the polling as we move forward I do not know, but it has not been a good spectacle with idiotic remarks from Natalie Elphicke and our own @HYUFD which I immediately called out

    Marcus Rashford is a role model, successful footballer, but more than that his campaign for free school meals has been completely non political.

    Also Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka are wonderful role models as well and the England team is a huge credit to the nstion

    To an extent his campaign was party political, while 71% of Labour voters backed his campaign for free school meals in the holidays, Tory voters opposed his campaign by 47% to 40%
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1317126424587833344?s=20
    Your comments were the same as Natalie Elphicke effectively saying he missed the penalty because he was involved in politics

    At least she has made an unconditional apology for getting it wrong
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.
    He secretes the intellectual equivalent of those superglues which barnacles synthesise to cling to their rocks as the breakers of logic smash over their heads.

    He still hasn't admitted that a few self selected skippers of big long range trawlers do not represent the entire workforce of the Scottish fishing industry when it comes to actual votes. What I don't understand is wht this doesn't damage the faith some on PB have on him.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,879
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    I struggle to see why any sensible politician wants to get involved in the debate.

    I'm happy for England players to take the knee before matches. I'm happy if they don't. I'd like them to be able to make their minds up, individually or as a team, without politicians getting hysterical about it and anyone booing them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
    So long as you're not with Leon on UFOs as well, you're probably just in need of a holiday.
    Well my holiday starts Friday.

    As for UFOs and Leon, I think he's desperate to receive an anal probe, from anyone/anything, so that explains his UFO/aliens obsession.
    You would have thought Leon of all people would have had plenty of options to hand - and if not he could always knap one to an appropriate size.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,829
    This is a superb, and depressing article.

    One by One, My Friends Were Sent to the Camps
    https://www.theatlantic.com/the-uyghur-chronicles/

    …The government in Kashgar had required all Uyghurs there to hand over any religious items they held. Frightened by the ongoing roundups, most had surrendered to the state any belongings relating to their faith: religious books, prayer rugs, prayer beads, articles of clothing. Some were unwilling to part with their Qurans, but with neighbors and even relatives betraying one another, those who kept them were quickly found out, detained, and harshly punished.

    Some time after, a man in his 70s had come across a Quran in his house that he hadn’t been able to find following the confiscation order. He was afraid that if he turned it over now, the officials would ask why he hadn’t relinquished it earlier, accuse him of “incorrect thinking,” and take him away to be punished. So he wrapped the Quran in a plastic bag and threw it in the Tuman River. But the authorities had installed wire mesh under all bridges, and when the mesh was cleaned, the Quran was found and turned over to the police. When officers opened it, they found a copy of the old man’s ID card: In Xinjiang, the elderly have a habit of keeping important documents in frequently read books, so that they are easily found when needed. The police tracked down the old man and detained him on charges of engaging in illegal religious activities. He was sentenced to seven years in prison….



    ….“I’m going to ask you something,” I said to Merhaba, “and you have to promise me you’ll do it.”

    “What is it? Tell me first,” she said.

    “I’m serious. Promise me first,” I said firmly.

    “All right,” she replied quietly.

    “If they arrest me, don’t lose yourself. Don’t make inquiries about me, don’t go looking for help, don’t spend money trying to get me out. This time isn’t like any time before. They are planning something dark. There is no notifying families or inquiring at police stations this time. So don’t trouble yourself with that. Keep our family affairs in order, take good care of our daughters, let life go on as if I were still here. I’m not afraid of prison. I am afraid of you and the girls struggling and hurting when I’m gone. So I want you to remember what I’m saying.”...


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 14
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.
    He secretes the intellectual equivalent of those superglues which barnacles synthesise to cling to their rocks as the breakers of logic smash over their heads.

    He still hasn't admitted that a few self selected skippers of big long range trawlers do not represent the entire workforce of the Scottish fishing industry when it comes to actual votes. What I don't understand is wht this doesn't damage the faith some on PB have on him.
    Which given the SNP failed to get a majority in May anyway was irrelevant
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 14

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    You can understand why. And I think that will hit the Tories polling numbers more than any culture war stuff.

    The problem is the government aren't having an honest conversation about this, the narrative has basically become your vaccinated your safe, period, and on the other side we have the zero covid constantly moving the goal posts and screaming disaster we are all going to die or get long covid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    Oh.

    The head of MI5 has dismissed claims that Russian bots are responsible for online racist abuse against England footballers and said that this country should shoulder the blame for the problem.

    Ken McCallum said that racist abuse hurled online at three players who missed penalties in the Euro 2020 final on Sunday night was not a matter for the security service as it was not targeted disinformation posted by hostile states.

    He added: “I would also voice the thought, maybe at the risk of stepping slightly out of my own swim lane, that if we were to find ourselves overly looking to blame abroad for this phenomenon of racism we might risk not owning the portion of the problem that is ours within our own country.”

    Speaking at Thames House, MI5’s London headquarters, he compared many of his spy colleagues to the England team — a group of young people “giving their all for their country and you don’t always win”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/racism-online-against-england-penalty-takers-is-britains-problem-not-from-russia-kgt0g5c9h
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.
    He secretes the intellectual equivalent of those superglues which barnacles synthesise to cling to their rocks as the breakers of logic smash over their heads.

    He still hasn't admitted that a few self selected skippers of big long range trawlers do not represent the entire workforce of the Scottish fishing industry when it comes to actual votes. What I don't understand is wht this doesn't damage the faith some on PB have on him.
    Which given the SNP failed to get a majority in May anyway was irrelevant
    But not the huge Tory victory in the fishing areas you were using the equivalnce to predict, as I recall.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,495
    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    For comparison with last Wednesday 20% more cases 50% more deaths.

    Looking forward to the weekend where people will be posting "cases static around 40-44k looks like we have peaked"

    It's become a tradition, just need fill in a higher number every week.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,388
    valleyboy said:

    Johnson's body language was telling. He was sullen and niggly, like a little boy being told off by his teacher for picking his nose.
    And dont start me on his untidy, unkempt appearance. Johnson is a disgrace of a Prime minister.

    Psychologically, it's fascinating.

    Blair, Thatch and (to an extent) Cameron could survive the brickbats because they knew in the core of their being that they were right. Brown was a bit like that, but much more brittlely.
    Major and May endured the brickbats, it could be painful to watch. They survived through pure sense of duty.

    Johnson is a performer. He needs the applause of the audience to thrive. When lots of people (and not just scruffy lefties) go from "we hail King Boris" to "we hate King Boris", what will he do?

    And whilst losing at PMQs won't shift many votes on the streets, and might not shift many votes on the Conservative backbenches (which matters more), it must be playing with Boris's psyche.

    It's not impossible that he will just stomp off one Wednesday lunchtime, never to be seen again. It's incredibly unlikely, but it's less impossible than it should be.

    Oh, and Gloucestershire-Hampshire. Blimey.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745
    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.
    He secretes the intellectual equivalent of those superglues which barnacles synthesise to cling to their rocks as the breakers of logic smash over their heads.

    He still hasn't admitted that a few self selected skippers of big long range trawlers do not represent the entire workforce of the Scottish fishing industry when it comes to actual votes. What I don't understand is wht this doesn't damage the faith some on PB have on him.
    Which given the SNP failed to get a majority in May anyway was irrelevant
    But not the huge Tory victory in the fishing areas you were using the equivalnce to predict, as I recall.
    I never once predicted a huge Tory victory in fishing areas, as I said the SNP would likely hold Banffshire and Buchan coast which is where the largest section of the Scottish fishing industry is based.

    I was correct however that suburban areas like Eastwood and rural areas like the Scottish borders and West Aberdeenshire would stay Tory and prevent an SNP majority
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 42,262

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    I actually think that is very true but of course if the opening does succeed over the summer then it could all change again

    Who knows but everyone must want it to succeed
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,232
    edited July 14

    Forget taking the knee...this will really piss people off.

    Summer holiday plans for thousands of Britons were left on the brink of tatters today after it emerged the Balearic islands are set to be upgraded to the 'amber list' just a fortnight after they were approved for quarantine-free travel.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9786817/Ibiza-Mallorca-Menorca-added-amber-list.html

    The public don't mind restrictions, in fact they seem to quite like them (as long as for others), but being dicked about, especially over their holidays, that really gets people pissed and the media love the hard luck stories of Margaret and me ain't been on holiday for 20 years, 20 years I tell you, and here we are now, stranded abroad as all the flights have gone.

    Forget taking the knee...this will really piss people off.

    Summer holiday plans for thousands of Britons were left on the brink of tatters today after it emerged the Balearic islands are set to be upgraded to the 'amber list' just a fortnight after they were approved for quarantine-free travel.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9786817/Ibiza-Mallorca-Menorca-added-amber-list.html

    The public don't mind restrictions, in fact they seem to quite like them (as long as for others), but being dicked about, especially over their holidays, that really gets people pissed and the media love the hard luck stories of Margaret and me ain't been on holiday for 20 years, 20 years I tell you, and here we are now, stranded abroad as all the flights have gone.

    Crap article. Amber List same as Green List anyway from 19 July so as long as they are not returning before next Monday they are not affected. (If Shapps does place on Amber list it won't be effective until after 19th anyway.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 14,593

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    ...


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    But PBers on here said that was fake news.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Again you miss the point and add to my despair I have with you over this
    HYUFD's superpower is utterly to frustrate all who attempt to argue with him.
    I've grown to find it endearing.
    He secretes the intellectual equivalent of those superglues which barnacles synthesise to cling to their rocks as the breakers of logic smash over their heads.

    He still hasn't admitted that a few self selected skippers of big long range trawlers do not represent the entire workforce of the Scottish fishing industry when it comes to actual votes. What I don't understand is wht this doesn't damage the faith some on PB have on him.
    Which given the SNP failed to get a majority in May anyway was irrelevant
    But not the huge Tory victory in the fishing areas you were using the equivalnce to predict, as I recall.
    I never once predicted a huge Tory victory in fishing areas, as I said the SNP would likely hold Banffshire and Buchan coast which is where the largest section of the Scottish fishing industry is based.

    I was correct however that suburban areas like Eastwood and rural areas like the Scottish borders and West Aberdeenshire would stay Tory and prevent an SNP majority
    Doesn't mean your fishing industry analysis on the basis of that tiny self selected poll was at all tenable. You're moving the goalposts again ... now it's suburban areas where the nearest fishing is in Waitrose and the canal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    edited July 14

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    If you ignore the 62% as 2019 showed they will go to Farage and not only would you lose government, you would cease being the main party of opposition too.

    Remember too Major lost almost a million votes to the Referendum Party and UKIP in 1997.

    Cameron failed to get a majority in 2010 after 'hug a hoody' and even in 2015 got far smaller a majority than Boris did in 2019 when he carried his base with him.

    You don't need to support booing as such, all you need to say is taking the knee is personal choice and not actually do it yourself or say it must be done
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 6,739
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Heck, even Steve Baker says the PM and Tories on the wrong side of this.

    He has principles.
    I disagree with a number of them, but at least he has some.
    In the past week I've agreed with

    1) Iain Duncan Smith (on keeping the £20 per week UC uplift)

    2) David Davis (on voting changes)

    and today

    3) Steve Baker on the culture war

    I feel like I need a lie down and consider have I woken up Bizarro world?
    So long as you're not with Leon on UFOs as well, you're probably just in need of a holiday.
    Well my holiday starts Friday.

    As for UFOs and Leon, I think he's desperate to receive an anal probe, from anyone/anything, so that explains his UFO/aliens obsession.
    You would have thought Leon of all people would have had plenty of options to hand - and if not he could always knap one to an appropriate size.
    Stranger from another planet, welcome to our show
    Just strap on this strap on and we'll play some rock and roll

    As the stranglers sort of said
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    Yes.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    It's almost like Boris didn't understand the consequences of

    1) moving a border from the Northern Ireland / Ireland border to the Irish Sea...
    2) that extra paperwork is a disincentive of selling to NI
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 62,763
    edited July 14

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
    Just like we had that stat when it first hit that 90% of people only suffer "mild" symptoms had people thinking all they had to except was a bit of flu (when the author has said they regret this term, but they were using it in the context of not going into hospital)....

    There is a misconception about COVID vaccination and also humans are generally crap at maths / stats / risk.

    Andrew Marr being a classic example, admitting he went around like he was invincible, then shocked that spending a week in a covid hotspot with load of unvaccinated people and is immuno-supressed to some extent, that he a) got it and b) he was ill for a few days. And that all that happening was a disaster. a) the vaccine worked and b) he should now be basically immune for a long time to come.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
    My litmus test is how easy has it been able to get online delivery slots from Sainsbury's.

    They are definitely getting taken rather quickly, up to quite recent there were still slots available for next day delivery, now, they are very rare.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926

    Oh.

    The head of MI5 has dismissed claims that Russian bots are responsible for online racist abuse against England footballers and said that this country should shoulder the blame for the problem.

    Ken McCallum said that racist abuse hurled online at three players who missed penalties in the Euro 2020 final on Sunday night was not a matter for the security service as it was not targeted disinformation posted by hostile states.

    He added: “I would also voice the thought, maybe at the risk of stepping slightly out of my own swim lane, that if we were to find ourselves overly looking to blame abroad for this phenomenon of racism we might risk not owning the portion of the problem that is ours within our own country.”

    Speaking at Thames House, MI5’s London headquarters, he compared many of his spy colleagues to the England team — a group of young people “giving their all for their country and you don’t always win”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/racism-online-against-england-penalty-takers-is-britains-problem-not-from-russia-kgt0g5c9h

    BiB - Translation: we don’t want to look into it because we’re scared what we might find.

    Given how much remainers like to blame Russia for their electoral defeats, I’d say it bloody well should be a matter for GCHQ.

    There’s an obvious motive for foreign states to do this sort of thing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    It's time to get rid of daily reporting of statistics. Roll it up into a weekly ONS release. It no longer serves any purpose other than to make people fearful for no reason. At the same point in the last wave we had 20k already in hospital and an average of around 550 deaths per day compared to about 25.

    The fear is now irrational for anyone who's had both jabs which is 35m people and rising.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,960
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    If you are admitted to hospital with a badly broken leg and you test positive for Covid even if you have no symptoms then you are counted as a Covid patient
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745
    eek said:

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    It's almost like Boris didn't understand the consequences of

    1) moving a border from the Northern Ireland / Ireland border to the Irish Sea...
    2) that extra paperwork is a disincentive of selling to NI
    And they certainly didn't understand, when they said 'supply chains will readjust', that, yes, supply chains will readjust.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
  • Selebian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    I struggle to see why any sensible politician wants to get involved in the debate.

    I'm happy for England players to take the knee before matches. I'm happy if they don't. I'd like them to be able to make their minds up, individually or as a team, without politicians getting hysterical about it and anyone booing them.
    Politicians can't always CHOOSE which debates to get involved in. You're going to get "do you condemn?" and "do you condone?" questions - and can't sidestep as it's "X refuses to condemn Y". If you're a leader, you're going to get MPs and Home Secretaries wading in, and need to decide how to respond.

    There has been a debate over whether taking the knee should be replaced with a more "unifying" symbol (presumably a badge stitched on a sleeve with a nice slogan dreamt up in a clever ad agency). But that misses the point. Symbols aren't always meant to unify. Some of them are intended to prevent the politicians you mention (and others in society) from dodging the debate - they confront, force people to take sides, and require public debate. In that respect, taking a knee (whatever you think of it) has been enormously powerful.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 2,971
    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    Figures have appeared for today but not yet on the platform as a whole

    42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

    For comparison with last Wednesday 20% more cases 50% more deaths.

    Looking forward to the weekend where people will be posting "cases static around 40-44k looks like we have peaked"

    It's become a tradition, just need fill in a higher number every week.
    Do you concede that the rate of increase is slowing? And that the schools closing in Scotland has led to cases falling? I think we will see this too in a couple of weeks.
  • eekeek Posts: 13,645

    eek said:

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    It's almost like Boris didn't understand the consequences of

    1) moving a border from the Northern Ireland / Ireland border to the Irish Sea...
    2) that extra paperwork is a disincentive of selling to NI
    And they certainly didn't understand, when they said 'supply chains will readjust', that, yes, supply chains will readjust.
    I think to them readjust meant they would readjust to support the paperwork when in reality readjust meant moving heaven and earth to avoid that paperwork.

    People really don't understand how much time and money people will spend to avoid manual tasks and risks of delays and additional hassle.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,495
    MaxPB said:

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    It's time to get rid of daily reporting of statistics. Roll it up into a weekly ONS release. It no longer serves any purpose other than to make people fearful for no reason. At the same point in the last wave we had 20k already in hospital and an average of around 550 deaths per day compared to about 25.

    The fear is now irrational for anyone who's had both jabs which is 35m people and rising.
    Getting the updates as weekly stats would look terrifying given the weekly jumps in numbers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,495

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    If you are admitted to hospital with a badly broken leg and you test positive for Covid even if you have no symptoms then you are counted as a Covid patient
    And if you get put on a ventilator with a broken leg.... No, wait that doesn't make sense.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    Yes.
    Thx. Not to be sniffed at, of course it will likely rise, and we don't have that many beds to play with, but that is 2.5% of hospital occupancy (122k available beds in the NHS in England).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 94,885
    MaxPB said:

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    It's time to get rid of daily reporting of statistics. Roll it up into a weekly ONS release. It no longer serves any purpose other than to make people fearful for no reason. At the same point in the last wave we had 20k already in hospital and an average of around 550 deaths per day compared to about 25.

    The fear is now irrational for anyone who's had both jabs which is 35m people and rising.
    It kinda isn't, the double jabbed have friends/family who haven't been double jabbed yet, so worry about them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    If you are admitted to hospital with a badly broken leg and you test positive for Covid even if you have no symptoms then you are counted as a Covid patient
    Well yes, you've got Covid and you are in hospital. Do you think that there are currently more than 3k people like that in hospital? And, weirdly, 25% fewer had broken legs the previous week?

    There is no question that the number of people sufficiently seriously affected by Covid to require medical treatment is increasing. Not nearly as fast as cases, thanks to the vaccines. Not nearly as fast as it did in January, thanks to be vaccines. But increasing none the less and at a rate which make the "this is over" tendency simply untenable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    edited July 14
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 18,926

    MaxPB said:

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    It's time to get rid of daily reporting of statistics. Roll it up into a weekly ONS release. It no longer serves any purpose other than to make people fearful for no reason. At the same point in the last wave we had 20k already in hospital and an average of around 550 deaths per day compared to about 25.

    The fear is now irrational for anyone who's had both jabs which is 35m people and rising.
    It kinda isn't, the double jabbed have friends/family who haven't been double jabbed yet, so worry about them.
    My parents don’t worry about me. :tongue:

    It is an odd thing, though. My second jab is 26 July, but it does seem to be dragging, when it really shouldn’t worry me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 2,971
    edited July 14

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
    Are you friends with Andrew marr? His case was really interesting. Really ill, yet back to work in days. It’s like we have forgotten how to be unwell. I don’t wish I’ll health on anyone, but it is part of life. Being double jabbed and then getting quite ill (what did that mean - headache, fever, took to bed for a day or two) is getting a free booster, and against delta at that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 38,440
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    Yes.
    Thx. Not to be sniffed at, of course it will likely rise, and we don't have that many beds to play with, but that is 2.5% of hospital occupancy (122k available beds in the NHS in England).
    Agreed. Or to look at it another way there are 1257 hospitals in the UK so it is an average of something under 3 patients per hospital. Currently. Given the massive back logs of treatment, however, we don't want this number increasing too much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
    Well even if we lose a few like you to the LDs or Starmer it will not make much difference as long as we stay at 40%+ in the polls
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 8,896

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
    Odd thing is that the same people hold what used to be thought of as contradictory positions: that masks and restrictions are a pita; but also they are scared. There is, from what I've heard, not exactly anger but frustration that we've made the sacrifices but are being denied the reward.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Admissions in England:

    12/07: 610
    Hospital occupancy in England: 14/07: 3,110
    Mechanical ventilation beds occupied in England: 14/07: 489

    On the government summary sheet for 7th July the number of people in hospital for the whole of the UK was 2731 so 3110 for England alone shows an increase but not as bad as I feared to be honest. Maybe 25%? I suspect the number in hospital in Scotland may now be falling again given the sharp reduction in new infections.
    Are we talking just of/with Covid?
    Yes.
    Thx. Not to be sniffed at, of course it will likely rise, and we don't have that many beds to play with, but that is 2.5% of hospital occupancy (122k available beds in the NHS in England).
    Agreed. Or to look at it another way there are 1257 hospitals in the UK so it is an average of something under 3 patients per hospital. Currently. Given the massive back logs of treatment, however, we don't want this number increasing too much.
    Very interesting piece on R4 this morning saying that they are expecting/beginning to see a wave of viral infections esp. in children right now. These are the infections and illnesses that would have taken place naturally but were supressed because everyone has been at home for the past 18 months.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,151

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    Lord Frost is more damaging to standards of British governance than Dominic Cummings. Discuss.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    edited July 14
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
    Well even if we lose a few like you to the LDs or Starmer it will not make much difference as long as we stay at 40%+ in the polls
    A few lost here...a few lost there...pretty soon you are the Opposition.

    Edit: but I can see why you're such a hit on the doorstep.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    Yes, quite a few of my circle are definitely getting quite nervous again. They're virtually all double-jabbed, but people are hearing of friends and relatives who are getting quite ill with Covid despite being jabbed. ('Quite ill' in this context is nothing like as bad as in the first two waves, but even so...)
    Odd thing is that the same people hold what used to be thought of as contradictory positions: that masks and restrictions are a pita; but also they are scared. There is, from what I've heard, not exactly anger but frustration that we've made the sacrifices but are being denied the reward.
    Yes, I think that's exactly right.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 29,568

    MaxPB said:

    FWIW I did speak to someone conducting polls and focus groups, they said the public have started getting scared again.

    They haven't been this scared since February, when the vaccine rollout was going full pelt.

    Over the last year or so you could match Boris Johnson's and government popularity to how scared the public felt.

    It's time to get rid of daily reporting of statistics. Roll it up into a weekly ONS release. It no longer serves any purpose other than to make people fearful for no reason. At the same point in the last wave we had 20k already in hospital and an average of around 550 deaths per day compared to about 25.

    The fear is now irrational for anyone who's had both jabs which is 35m people and rising.
    It kinda isn't, the double jabbed have friends/family who haven't been double jabbed yet, so worry about them.
    They should go and moan at their MP and force the government to ignore the JCVI on the arbitrary 8 week gap. It's solving tomorrow's problem by ignoring today's. We can solve tomorrow's problem tomorrow by extending booster jabs down to all adults. Get them to bitch about no decision on vaccines for 12-17 year olds as well while you're at it. Completely idiotic that we're not getting on with it asap for all teenagers who want it or parents who want their kids to have it.

    We are now seeing Pfizer vaccine doses pile up as our 60m order has commenced.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 86,002
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
    Well even if we lose a few like you to the LDs or Starmer it will not make much difference as long as we stay at 40%+ in the polls
    A few lost here...a few lost there...pretty soon you are the Opposition.
    If we lost 2/3 of our voters to Farage again as we were starting to do in 2019 we would not even have been the main Opposition but challenging the LDs for how many MPs we could fit into a taxi
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 12,368
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
    Well even if we lose a few like you to the LDs or Starmer it will not make much difference as long as we stay at 40%+ in the polls
    A few lost here...a few lost there...pretty soon you are the Opposition.

    Edit: but I can see why you're such a hit on the doorstep.
    Especially if he keeps saying: you're not an actively voting Tory? Well, **** off then.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,879

    Selebian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    I struggle to see why any sensible politician wants to get involved in the debate.

    I'm happy for England players to take the knee before matches. I'm happy if they don't. I'd like them to be able to make their minds up, individually or as a team, without politicians getting hysterical about it and anyone booing them.
    Politicians can't always CHOOSE which debates to get involved in. You're going to get "do you condemn?" and "do you condone?" questions - and can't sidestep as it's "X refuses to condemn Y". If you're a leader, you're going to get MPs and Home Secretaries wading in, and need to decide how to respond.

    There has been a debate over whether taking the knee should be replaced with a more "unifying" symbol (presumably a badge stitched on a sleeve with a nice slogan dreamt up in a clever ad agency). But that misses the point. Symbols aren't always meant to unify. Some of them are intended to prevent the politicians you mention (and others in society) from dodging the debate - they confront, force people to take sides, and require public debate. In that respect, taking a knee (whatever you think of it) has been enormously powerful.
    I condone choosing to take the knee. I condone choosing not to take the knee. I condemn booing people for taking the knee.

    Simple. (Maybe I'd be a terrible politician, but that's the position which would make me most likely to vote for someone, all else being equal).

    I agree about the power of the gesture. All the deabte about it has certainly raised the profile of the issues.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,745

    You really couldn't make it up:

    Lord Frost tells Lords Ctte that increased cross border trade in Ireland is ‘in many ways a problem’ & he doesn’t want to encourage more of it.

    Pressed by the Ctte chair he says it’s a problem because it reflects the fact NI businesses are finding it more difficult to source goods from preferred GB suppliers.


    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1415340223291170824

    Lord Frost is more damaging to standards of British governance than Dominic Cummings. Discuss.
    I know what you mean, but in truth the one who is damaging to standards of British governance is Boris Johnson.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 29,865
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer may be right that taking the knee is fully supported on his side of the political divide, 78% of Labour voters back it. Personally I believe it is a matter of personal choice.

    On the Tory side however only 38% of Tory voters back taking the knee, so it makes sense for Boris and Patel in terms of their base not to push taking the knee too hard.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1414951623437193224?s=20

    Do those Conservatives who do not support taking the knee also support BOOING those taking the knee? I very much doubt most do.

    That's the big danger for Johnson. In pandering to the base (an activity of which I know you are a huge fan) he's allowed himself to be cast in a bad light even for those in his base. This issue could have been closed down pre-tournament, but Patel's comments weren't corrected, and headbanger Tory MPs weren't disciplined.

    I'd also note that 38% is a heck of a lot of Tories. Not saying at all that this issue will do it on its own, but Major only needed to lose around a quarter of voters in his 1992 triumph to go down in flames in 1997. Indeed, it's that 38% that Conservatives need to pander to most of all as they are the ones most likely to shop elsewhere for their political leaders.

    This is what Cameron understood with his "hug a hoody" and "hug a huskie" messaging, the 0.7% of GDP stuff etc. None of that was about the base - the Tory base varies from agnostic to hostile on such things. It's about the Blair voters and soggy centre.
    Good post. The base aren't going anywhere else, now post-Brexit.

    They need to worry about me. An ex-Cons voter now thoroughly disaffected by the make up of the Party and is looking around to see what's on offer. So far SKS ain't it but I thought he had a good PMQs today and there will be some for whom a sustained good run by him will do much to sway their vote.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? If not then no, we don't need to worry about you
    Yes me old mucker, I voted Tory in 2019.

    Now, how can you help me...
    Well even if we lose a few like you to the LDs or Starmer it will not make much difference as long as we stay at 40%+ in the polls
    A few lost here...a few lost there...pretty soon you are the Opposition.
    If we lost 2/3 of our voters to Farage again as we were starting to do in 2019 we would not even have been the main Opposition but challenging the LDs for how many MPs we could fit into a taxi
    Indeed.
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