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After two by-election flops the Tories should blame their own complacency – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    This thread is poxed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Andy_JS said:

    Some people really don't want to return to normal life, do they. I find that mind-boggling.

    For many ‘normal’ life was neither normal nor happy. Whilst I don’t class myself in that group, I have not missed the joys of a four hour daily commute and have no desire to anaesthetise myself to it by spending money on overpriced London food or drink.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    kle4 said:

    I’m observing Dominic Cummings’s “Ask Me Anything” so that PBers don’t have to.

    Fan of Tony Blair’s it seems:

    Obviously he'd (Tony Blair) have done a much better job - he wd at least read papers, chair meetings, understand how gvt machine works, not trolley around all day... And my impression is since losing on Brexit he's jumped ahead of almost all MPs in understanding that science and technology must be the future orientation for UK...

    Translation - I think he likes the things I like, so he must be good.
    No. Surely Cummings is saying that Blair would have behaved as you'd expect any Prime Minister to have done. As American non-Trump Republicans said in 2016, Hillary Clinton would be a bad President but at least she'd be a bad President in a conventional way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Scott_xP said:

    No10 says @Dominic2306's claim that PM is ignoring scientific advisers on July 19 unlocking is "not accurate"

    "Obviously the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer will appear alongside the Prime Minister later"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1412064472647323648

    Given advisers are not always unanimous the government can likely not win or lose in such a fight - someone will be advocating whatever is decided, and someone will oppose - the proportions won't be equal, but media/opposition/government will have someone to point to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    edited July 2021
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.

    The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
    Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
    Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.

    Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.
    It's a (rare) misstep from Rochdale.

    Of all the examples, buses for the drivers, child care assistants, etc he chooses nightclubs.
    I'll take the (rare) misstep comment :) I don't think for a minute that under 30s clubbers are as likely to suffer badly with pox as other groups - though some will. Its them spreading back into the wider populace. I know several people who have been double jabbed and come down with Covid anyway. It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable.

    Yes. Masks on public transport and in shops. I have already posted on the hypocrisy of Jenrick et al commuting in their Jags whilst imploring the proles go mask free crushed into the tube like in the good old days.
    "It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable."

    This is not sufficient to keep them closed.
    Its happening anyway, and I'm north of the wall (and besides which out in the sticks) so it doesn't directly affect me. I hope very much that Whitty et al are correct on this one, its just that you look at the rates of pox here and across Europe and wonder how we have got this so badly wrong when their infection rates are (largely) on the floor. If ours were as well then fine.

    Removing all restrictions including masks and social distancing because "yes you may make a load of people ill but not many of them will die" just feels odd in the middle of a massive spike that isn't happening elsewhere.
    Simple answer is delta, combined with high levels of asymptomatic testing here, and less so in Europe. We have a huge Indian population and thus seeded delta in many places. Less so in Europe, but it is undoubtedly spreading there, and will become an issue for them too.
    Does it remain government advice to test ourselves every day even if asymptomatic?

    Also apropos of compliance, etc - I saw some stats on the ERP events - ie Ascot some others can't remember which. Only 15% of those attending completed the full testing regime (LFT before going, PCR before going, PCR after going).
    Yes, twice a week or any day you're going out. I don't do it because it's ridiculous and I'm now in office at least 3 days per week and usually we're out on Saturday for dinner or drinks. This is the kind of stuff that needs to be consigned to the dustbin of history. It's just fear mongering at large for a vaccinated population.
    Plus pointless. Who, if asymptomatic, would be about to go to dinner with friends, or have them over, and then take a jab which might mean they would have to cancel? Ans: no one sane.
    I have never had a covid test. I only learned on here last week that government policy is to test yourself daily. I doubt very many people are even aware of this!
    Neither have I.
    What??? It is?
    Every 3-4 days now. Jabbed or not.

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Erm, is a £400k terrace house suitable for a first time buyer? And you'd need to spend the same again on the interior so that your eyeballs in a desperate attempt for self-preservation don't climb out of your eye sockets and flee

    https://twitter.com/HelloFromMarcus/status/1411625316976676865

    It’s probably about 800sqf so £500 psf which doesn’t seem crazy (no idea about pricing in the area).

    You could refurb that for less than £100k
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Scott_xP said:

    No10 says @Dominic2306's claim that PM is ignoring scientific advisers on July 19 unlocking is "not accurate"

    "Obviously the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer will appear alongside the Prime Minister later"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1412064472647323648

    And they are the two that matter
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.

    The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
    Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
    Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.

    Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.
    It's a (rare) misstep from Rochdale.

    Of all the examples, buses for the drivers, child care assistants, etc he chooses nightclubs.
    I'll take the (rare) misstep comment :) I don't think for a minute that under 30s clubbers are as likely to suffer badly with pox as other groups - though some will. Its them spreading back into the wider populace. I know several people who have been double jabbed and come down with Covid anyway. It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable.

    Yes. Masks on public transport and in shops. I have already posted on the hypocrisy of Jenrick et al commuting in their Jags whilst imploring the proles go mask free crushed into the tube like in the good old days.
    "It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable."

    This is not sufficient to keep them closed.
    Its happening anyway, and I'm north of the wall (and besides which out in the sticks) so it doesn't directly affect me. I hope very much that Whitty et al are correct on this one, its just that you look at the rates of pox here and across Europe and wonder how we have got this so badly wrong when their infection rates are (largely) on the floor. If ours were as well then fine.

    Removing all restrictions including masks and social distancing because "yes you may make a load of people ill but not many of them will die" just feels odd in the middle of a massive spike that isn't happening elsewhere.
    Simple answer is delta, combined with high levels of asymptomatic testing here, and less so in Europe. We have a huge Indian population and thus seeded delta in many places. Less so in Europe, but it is undoubtedly spreading there, and will become an issue for them too.
    Does it remain government advice to test ourselves every day even if asymptomatic?

    Also apropos of compliance, etc - I saw some stats on the ERP events - ie Ascot some others can't remember which. Only 15% of those attending completed the full testing regime (LFT before going, PCR before going, PCR after going).
    Yes, twice a week or any day you're going out. I don't do it because it's ridiculous and I'm now in office at least 3 days per week and usually we're out on Saturday for dinner or drinks. This is the kind of stuff that needs to be consigned to the dustbin of history. It's just fear mongering at large for a vaccinated population.
    Plus pointless. Who, if asymptomatic, would be about to go to dinner with friends, or have them over, and then take a jab which might mean they would have to cancel? Ans: no one sane.
    I have never had a covid test. I only learned on here last week that government policy is to test yourself daily. I doubt very many people are even aware of this!
    No it isn't. Where did you get that from?

    Everyone is eligible to get two tests per week and its recommended to test yourself if you have symptoms, but its not policy to test daily and never has been.

    Sky still introducing 'Independent SAGE' zero covidians as 'SAGE' members. They seem to be waking up to the fact they're losing the argument, but still screaching about how wrong it is.
    Wrong. It was. Now every 3-4 days.

    Link again: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    kle4 said:

    I’m observing Dominic Cummings’s “Ask Me Anything” so that PBers don’t have to.

    Fan of Tony Blair’s it seems:

    Obviously he'd (Tony Blair) have done a much better job - he wd at least read papers, chair meetings, understand how gvt machine works, not trolley around all day... And my impression is since losing on Brexit he's jumped ahead of almost all MPs in understanding that science and technology must be the future orientation for UK...

    Translation - I think he likes the things I like, so he must be good.
    No. Surely Cummings is saying that Blair would have behaved as you'd expect any Prime Minister to have done. As American non-Trump Republicans said in 2016, Hillary Clinton would be a bad President but at least she'd be a bad President in a conventional way.
    I was referring specifically to the bit about understanding science and technology, not the operation in government stuff. I have no idea if he is right about Blair understanding such things - it hasn't jumped out in reporting on Blair's interventions but may be true - but I was just taken that the quote says 'my impression' rather than something more confident about Blair's views on the subject. Impressions are usually wrong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.

    The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
    Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
    Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.

    Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.
    It's a (rare) misstep from Rochdale.

    Of all the examples, buses for the drivers, child care assistants, etc he chooses nightclubs.
    I'll take the (rare) misstep comment :) I don't think for a minute that under 30s clubbers are as likely to suffer badly with pox as other groups - though some will. Its them spreading back into the wider populace. I know several people who have been double jabbed and come down with Covid anyway. It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable.

    Yes. Masks on public transport and in shops. I have already posted on the hypocrisy of Jenrick et al commuting in their Jags whilst imploring the proles go mask free crushed into the tube like in the good old days.
    "It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable."

    This is not sufficient to keep them closed.
    Its happening anyway, and I'm north of the wall (and besides which out in the sticks) so it doesn't directly affect me. I hope very much that Whitty et al are correct on this one, its just that you look at the rates of pox here and across Europe and wonder how we have got this so badly wrong when their infection rates are (largely) on the floor. If ours were as well then fine.

    Removing all restrictions including masks and social distancing because "yes you may make a load of people ill but not many of them will die" just feels odd in the middle of a massive spike that isn't happening elsewhere.
    Simple answer is delta, combined with high levels of asymptomatic testing here, and less so in Europe. We have a huge Indian population and thus seeded delta in many places. Less so in Europe, but it is undoubtedly spreading there, and will become an issue for them too.
    Does it remain government advice to test ourselves every day even if asymptomatic?

    Also apropos of compliance, etc - I saw some stats on the ERP events - ie Ascot some others can't remember which. Only 15% of those attending completed the full testing regime (LFT before going, PCR before going, PCR after going).
    Yes, twice a week or any day you're going out. I don't do it because it's ridiculous and I'm now in office at least 3 days per week and usually we're out on Saturday for dinner or drinks. This is the kind of stuff that needs to be consigned to the dustbin of history. It's just fear mongering at large for a vaccinated population.
    Plus pointless. Who, if asymptomatic, would be about to go to dinner with friends, or have them over, and then take a jab which might mean they would have to cancel? Ans: no one sane.
    I have never had a covid test. I only learned on here last week that government policy is to test yourself daily. I doubt very many people are even aware of this!
    No it isn't. Where did you get that from?

    Everyone is eligible to get two tests per week and its recommended to test yourself if you have symptoms, but its not policy to test daily and never has been.

    Sky still introducing 'Independent SAGE' zero covidians as 'SAGE' members. They seem to be waking up to the fact they're losing the argument, but still screaching about how wrong it is.
    Let me guess. They are highlighting long covid again?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    Going ahead is a political decision. But it may not just be in the interests of the PM to do so, but also for the country. Lockdown is a blunt tool that has massive negative consequences. The moment those consequences start outweighing the consequences of covid, we need to remove as many restrictions as possible.

    I have some sympathy with your view about nightclubs. But that's a bit of an edge case, compared to (say) the restrictions in pubs, gyms etc.

    Re your last paragraph: "don't behave like irresponsible prannocks' has been a message throughout this crisis. At least, few, if any, people in power have been saying: "behave like a prannock!'. A problem is that many people *have* been behaving (IMV) like a prannock, either because they do not care, lack knowledge, not just that their own personal risk evaluation is different from mine. Indeed, some may see my own cautious approach as being a bit prannocky.
    So on that latter point isn't it obvious that "use your common sense" is a big problem. Many of us lack it for certain situations (or in general), most of us are clueless about viruses, and we're now being told its all over, FREEDOM DAY, dump your mask its safe. Yes, that may not be the exact words from ministers. But that is what people are hearing and have been for a while.

    "You do not need to wear a mask, I won't be, eeh aren't they uncomfortable" is an example of prannock behaviour.
    Your 'solution' to opening up appears little different from what the government is proposing - except, I think, for nightclubs. everything else is personal responsibility - or irresponsibility.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.

    The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
    Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
    Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.

    Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.
    It's a (rare) misstep from Rochdale.

    Of all the examples, buses for the drivers, child care assistants, etc he chooses nightclubs.
    I'll take the (rare) misstep comment :) I don't think for a minute that under 30s clubbers are as likely to suffer badly with pox as other groups - though some will. Its them spreading back into the wider populace. I know several people who have been double jabbed and come down with Covid anyway. It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable.

    Yes. Masks on public transport and in shops. I have already posted on the hypocrisy of Jenrick et al commuting in their Jags whilst imploring the proles go mask free crushed into the tube like in the good old days.
    "It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable."

    This is not sufficient to keep them closed.
    Its happening anyway, and I'm north of the wall (and besides which out in the sticks) so it doesn't directly affect me. I hope very much that Whitty et al are correct on this one, its just that you look at the rates of pox here and across Europe and wonder how we have got this so badly wrong when their infection rates are (largely) on the floor. If ours were as well then fine.

    Removing all restrictions including masks and social distancing because "yes you may make a load of people ill but not many of them will die" just feels odd in the middle of a massive spike that isn't happening elsewhere.
    Simple answer is delta, combined with high levels of asymptomatic testing here, and less so in Europe. We have a huge Indian population and thus seeded delta in many places. Less so in Europe, but it is undoubtedly spreading there, and will become an issue for them too.
    Does it remain government advice to test ourselves every day even if asymptomatic?

    Also apropos of compliance, etc - I saw some stats on the ERP events - ie Ascot some others can't remember which. Only 15% of those attending completed the full testing regime (LFT before going, PCR before going, PCR after going).
    Yes, twice a week or any day you're going out. I don't do it because it's ridiculous and I'm now in office at least 3 days per week and usually we're out on Saturday for dinner or drinks. This is the kind of stuff that needs to be consigned to the dustbin of history. It's just fear mongering at large for a vaccinated population.
    Plus pointless. Who, if asymptomatic, would be about to go to dinner with friends, or have them over, and then take a jab which might mean they would have to cancel? Ans: no one sane.
    I have never had a covid test. I only learned on here last week that government policy is to test yourself daily. I doubt very many people are even aware of this!
    No it isn't. Where did you get that from?

    Everyone is eligible to get two tests per week and its recommended to test yourself if you have symptoms, but its not policy to test daily and never has been.
    It is recommended to get tested twice weekly if you DON'T have symptoms:

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/

    Does a person have to show ID, or even give their name, or snap a QR code or something like that, to collect a pack of lateral flow tests? Or are they like condoms at a contraception clinic?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789
    edited July 2021
    Snip
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Scott_xP said:

    No10 says @Dominic2306's claim that PM is ignoring scientific advisers on July 19 unlocking is "not accurate"

    "Obviously the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer will appear alongside the Prime Minister later"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1412064472647323648

    Wouldn't be the first time that Whitty has stood there and contradicted the minister...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,033

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 says @Dominic2306's claim that PM is ignoring scientific advisers on July 19 unlocking is "not accurate"

    "Obviously the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer will appear alongside the Prime Minister later"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1412064472647323648

    The scientists that Big Bad Dom wants the Prime Minister to be listening to:

    Sir David Anthony King
    Professor Anthony Costello
    Professor Karl Friston FRS
    Dr Zubaida Haque FRSA
    Professor Martin McKee
    Professor Susan Michie
    Dr Tolullah Oni
    Professor Christina Pagel
    Professor Deenan Pillay
    Professor Stephen Reicher
    Professor Gabriel Scally
    Dr Kit Yates
    Dom Cummings is the last person to be wanting further restrictions given he could not comply with them himself when arguably there was a reason for them early last year.If he wasn't such a egotistical hypocrite he would do a bit of self reflection
    Like most people, he wants them for everyone else but ignores them when convenient.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Andy_JS said:

    Some people really don't want to return to normal life, do they. I find that mind-boggling.

    We really do. We just don't think "ah fuck it, the backbenches are restless, just do it" is the way to achieve it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Andy_JS said:

    Some people really don't want to return to normal life, do they. I find that mind-boggling.

    Current measures are nearly completely useless, they are doing very little to stop the spread of Delta. Anyone advocating bringing Delta under control should be demanding much tighter measures, perhaps going back to a full lockdown. If they aren't demanding that they aren't being realistic, they want some fig leaf measures that don't work in order to cover their arse and say that something was done.

    So if we aren't going to have another full lockdown — and neither the case rates, hospital admissions, or deaths warrant it — then we need to accept that the vaccines are our only significant measure to tackle the Delta variant, or any other variant, and put our remaining effort behind the vaccination programme whilst dispensing with almost everything else.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited July 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Some people really don't want to return to normal life, do they. I find that mind-boggling.

    We really do. We just don't think "ah fuck it, the backbenches are restless, just do it" is the way to achieve it.
    Do you really think that Whitty and Vallance would stand alongside Boris if they were against this

    It is a political decision but it cannot be against HMG's scientific advisors recommendations

    The decision, as many have said, is finely balanced but someone just has to take the decision to free the country from imprisonment and Boris looks like he is making a decision for once, but of course it will put Sturgeon and Drakeford on the spot

    As I have previously commented two North Wales companies are taking Drakeford to court for keeping them closed when their English competitors are trading
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:

    Open up.

    It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.

    The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.

    I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.

    It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?

    Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
    Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.

    We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.

    Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
    How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.

    The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
    Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
    Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.

    Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.
    It's a (rare) misstep from Rochdale.

    Of all the examples, buses for the drivers, child care assistants, etc he chooses nightclubs.
    I'll take the (rare) misstep comment :) I don't think for a minute that under 30s clubbers are as likely to suffer badly with pox as other groups - though some will. Its them spreading back into the wider populace. I know several people who have been double jabbed and come down with Covid anyway. It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable.

    Yes. Masks on public transport and in shops. I have already posted on the hypocrisy of Jenrick et al commuting in their Jags whilst imploring the proles go mask free crushed into the tube like in the good old days.
    "It hasn't killed them, but its entirely avoidable."

    This is not sufficient to keep them closed.
    Its happening anyway, and I'm north of the wall (and besides which out in the sticks) so it doesn't directly affect me. I hope very much that Whitty et al are correct on this one, its just that you look at the rates of pox here and across Europe and wonder how we have got this so badly wrong when their infection rates are (largely) on the floor. If ours were as well then fine.

    Removing all restrictions including masks and social distancing because "yes you may make a load of people ill but not many of them will die" just feels odd in the middle of a massive spike that isn't happening elsewhere.
    It's time to get rid of all the restrictions, including wearing masks.
    It's certainly time to remove the mandatory element and let people decide for themselves what risks they want to take. Individual responsibility and all that.

    I'll still wear a FFP3 mask for certain things for the time being but why should that bother anyone else?

    It's what I don't get about anti-vaxxers - why make such a song and dance about it? Nobody is forcing you to be vaccinated and, frankly, nobody cares if you don't get vaccinated. No point whinging if other countries won't allow you in though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    Carnyx said:

    Younger Labour voters seem to support ‘Tory cuts’.

    image

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1411695586013761539

    I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
    This is where BLM and others have screwed up.

    Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.

    For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.

    Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.

    Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
    In fact, what they actually want in the BLM movement in America, when it is articulated, is something much closer to UK policing. Policing as a social service.
    Yes, though I agree it's a self-defeating slogan.

    I had a constituent (a white woman as it happened) who had precisely the experience described above - the police turned up outside her semi in Awsworth (a small working-class village) with no warning and smashed her door in. They had got the wrong house (they were looking for a major drug dealer who actually lived several doors away). She was told bluntly that these things happen and they'd compensate her "in due course". She came to me after she'd waited 3 months and I got it sorted, but she said it was utterly terrifying and really she'd have been grateful for a proper apology and maybe some flowers. If that sort of thing happens frequently in your neighbourhood, you can see how the idea of defunding the force altogether might get a hearing.
    Mistakes happen, but when you do make one, be gracious about it and make it right. Sounds like that is not the way for the local plod there. Presumably she was not the right kind of person to attract media attention (thinking about the recent murder case of Sarah Everard?)
    I'm sure anyone with retail management experience will agree that when something goes wrong..... faulty goods, wrong size or whatever...... a prompt apology and recompense/replacement is likely to win a customers approval and even create or encourage repeat purchases.
    You mean the polis get a cup of tea next time they batter the door?
    No. LOL. As Mr Palmer's one time constituent appeared to suggest 'a proper apology and maybe some flowers.' The 'apology' in person from a senior plod.

    Yes, these things do happen, but the impression Mr P left me with was that Nottinghamshire(?) Police didn't give a whatsit about making one, and, in doing so, terrifying an apparently perfectly respectable member of society.
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