I notice on Saturday a number of English footballers were all embracing / hugging Ukranian players / management...you would think after Mount incident they would learn...
I 'think' the trouble with the previous occasion was the length of time - allegedly a fairly lengthy chat in the tunnel. A quick hug after playing footy is not currently an issue, although it has been suggested that delta may be infectious enough to be able to catch it outside when passing someone.
I agree wholeheartedly with this article. The 3 most important lessons for Tories in by-elections must be: 1. Select good local candidate if possible. 2. Do not be complacent but put every effort in 3. Significantly improve your GOTV operation
I expect more LD gains in any by-election in places where they were second to Con in GE2019
Marginal Lab/Con by-elections in North and Midlands should be most interesting if we have any over the next 30 months.
I know its a bit crazy leftfield but also have some policies that are small state and fiscally balanced rather than nannying government and huge spending of money the government actually hasn't got.
Offer that policy and Labour will start recovering some of their Red Wall seats.
and to that i would say " so what? " I mean it does not matter to me if a high spending high nannying politician calls himself a tory or Labour (actually its probably more honest of them to cal themselves Labour) they are still a high spending high nannying politician
Indeed.
Let's stop distorting the housing market with subsidies.
Abolish the CGT main dwelling exemption loophole now.
£30bn every year to spend on proper care in old age, and a more orderly housing market, and less artificial ramping of house prices.
What's not to like?
Stamp duty typically represents several months’ gross salary, which for most people takes a long time to save. This is in itself a distortion of the house market by reducing liquidity and shoe horning ameters into the landlord business when they need to move location.
Charging CGT on main dwellings would be this distortion effect but on elephant steroids. A tax on inflation but only at the point of liquidating the asset… a huge disincentive to ever sell.
Cummings also thinks Boris “sold fishing out”, that Keir is “useless” and “can’t build a team”, and that Javid will just “do what officials tell him”.
Contra to the last point, he believes the July 19 freedoms are a mistake.
Lol, Cummings has completely lost it hasn't he. It really was like that scene out of Jerry Maguire when he walks out of the office and no one gives a fuck. Now all he can do is carp from the sidelines but no one's listening.
Lost it my ass! He's just getting going. He got rid of Hancock within 2 weeks of starting his campaign and he's got Johnson in his sights. The man is taking the dark arts of marketing to a new level.
At this rate the advertising industry might be awarded a George Cross.
Cummings is howling into the night. He might have become your hero but he's always been a complete c**t.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Regardless of the benefits (or otherwise) of mask wearing, I'm not sure that lifting their necessity in all settings would have the desired effect of increasing social activity. For example, if people stop wearing masks on the tube or airplanes because there is no mandate to do so, I suspect the number of extra customers attracted by this liberation will be outweighed by the number who think 'I'm not risking a mask-free tube journey/flight just yet'. The equation would be different in supermarkets, I suspect.
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
iirc HMG is already planning booster shots in the autumn. Yes, there it is in the press conference press release posted earlier.
The government is ensuring preparations are in place to offer third “booster” doses to everyone aged over 50 and the most vulnerable to boost their immunity over the winter months, based on interim advice from the JCVI. Final advice is expected in the coming months. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-to-set-out-plans-ahead-of-step-4
ETA of course the Israeli evidence will need to be studied before the big un-lockdown on the 19th.
My son had pfizer, is double jabbed and has previously had covid
Currently feeling sorry for himself with covid delta variant
Jeez. How bad is it? I’m now hearing lots of anecdotes of double jabbed types getting delta. Pff. No one in hospital but definitely laid up in bed
His sats went down to 89 and he was feeling sorry for himself - temperature a little high but not too bad.
Nights he says are awful with sweating, shaking spells.
I convinced him to talk to NHS once it got below 90 and they just seem to be saying keep an eye on it (he is, Sats at 94 earlier today)
Hope he pulls through quickly. One of the issues for the public is the nuance of whether the vaccines are working, and how good they are at the different measures of (a) stop you getting infected (b) stop you needing hopsital (c) stop you dying. Take Andrew Marr as an example. I think he thought that double vaccinated meant he was totally safe, and hence his reaction. But his illness was sufficiently moderated that he had mild disease and then back to work. We'd all prefer if the vaccines 100% stopped infection, but they don't. What they do do and are doing is keeping most from being that unwell.
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
Nonsense. Freedom Day is a fixed mark, an irreversible removal of restrictions as there is absolutely no risk at all to the massive delta spike we are all now enjoying.
Okay, what would you do if you had to make the final decision? Would you open up, would you delay again, or would you slap on more restrictions?
Treat the answer as if you are the person in power, and you had to make the decision based on the information we have at hand.
1. Listen to the fucking experts. The NHS are doing their nut at the "throw your mask away" advice as voiced by Jenrick 2. Consider that pox isn't interested in politics. "We will never again lock down" or indeed reimpose any restrictions is bloody stupid 3. Take it in steps. Yes we want to let you do more. Yes it is encouraging that deaths and hospitalisations aren't currently following the big spike in cases like last time. But we do have a big spike in cases and have to adjust plans accordingly. Please continue to social distance. You need to keep wearing a mask. You should consider the wellbeing of yourselves and others before going into crowded places.
Lets put it this way. Am far happier to be north of the wall with a be more patient approach than south of it.
I asked you for a decision. Open up, delay, or retreat? A couple of words will do it.
As for your comments: 1) They are listening to the experts. The problem is, which experts? Too many people seem to want to listen to experts that back their views.
2) The pox isn't interested in politics, but too many people are willing to play politics with the pox.
3) They have been taking it in steps. What you have said here is individual guidance, not rules. What can open up, what can stay closed?
So, open up, delay or retreat? Go on, make a decision...
What part of take it in steps - open up some more but not entirely - was unclear?
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Our Dean of Faculty put it really well: the problem arises when WFH becomes living at work. And it does.
I certainly found in the early days how difficult it is to "switch off".
I have to force myself to bunk off now and to go for a run, lift some heavy weights etc otherwise work takes over.
I find the worst to be a sort of limbo land where I get stuck on the computer but easily distracted and bored with the result that you never seem to catch up or clear your feet. The result is that “work” goes on interminably. When I went to work I did it and left. That option seems to have disappeared. And talking of being distracted….laters
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
Cummings also thinks Boris “sold fishing out”, that Keir is “useless” and “can’t build a team”, and that Javid will just “do what officials tell him”.
Contra to the last point, he believes the July 19 freedoms are a mistake.
Lol, Cummings has completely lost it hasn't he. It really was like that scene out of Jerry Maguire when he walks out of the office and no one gives a fuck. Now all he can do is carp from the sidelines but no one's listening.
Lost it my ass! He's just getting going. He got rid of Hancock within 2 weeks of starting his campaign and he's got Johnson in his sights. The man is taking the dark arts of marketing to a new level.
At this rate the advertising industry might be awarded a George Cross.
Lol, as if was Cummings that got rid of Hancock. Cummings is in the lockdown forever camp, the Hancock scheme came from the anti-lockdown crowd. Isabelle Oakeshott was the first journalist to get eyes on.
Cummings is howling into the night. He might have become your hero but he's always been a complete c**t.
I am no fan of Cummings, but I think to suggest he had no hand in getting rid of Hancock seems a little naïve. It is likely that Hancock would have survived the snogging video if it hadn't already been revealed that Bozo thought he was "fucking useless". One also has to ask whether it was a coincidence that said video was leaked after Hancock became a liability to no.10. It didn't look terribly good that Bozo thought he was "fucking useless" and yet was too weak to sack him. I suspect the video might never have come to light had Cummings not undermined Hancock in the first place.
No way. Once the man directly responsible for stopping people meeting up during lockdown was found to be shagging someone not from his bubble in lockdown he was doomed. Johnson had a small window in which to sack him and failed to take i5t because (a) he's probably doing it himself (and has certainly had affairs) (b) he lacks the right political antenna to see the best approach (c) loyalty?
The last thing we needed was to follow the US in being obsessed with this topic, but it looks like it's going to happen anyway.
Cheer up. If Wokeness enters the mainstream it can only be bad for the Left. When people begin to understand Wokery, most of them begin to dislike it. The more they know of Woke, the more they detest. See what happened to feminism, encountering Wokeism in the trans debate. An early UK skirmish.
The Left will soon be in retreat in the culture wars, after decades of stealthy advance
There are a miniscule amount of idiots on the left who are woke who annoy a number on the right who think the numbers are greater than they are and who are just as woke at the other end of the scale (eg imperial measures, anthems, pledge of allegiance, etc, etc).
The rest of us are normal and don't give a toss either way and think both groups are prats.
Like many on here, you are utterly clueless as to the extent Wokeness has penetrated into education, law, government, charities, the arts. It now spreads into corporate culture like the fungus it is
The people who minimize or dismiss Woke generally only do it because they have not been impacted by it. Yet
The alternative is that they are too old or dim to comprehend
Well there is nothing like jumping in feet first with total arrogance and ignorance is there. You have no idea if I have expertise in any of a wide range of areas you have covered (Education, Law, Government, Charities, Arts and now Corporate). I mean with that list it is quite likely I am involved in one or more and it is pretty well impossible for you to be involved in all of them or come to that many of them. Yet apparently I am clueless and you are not. I would try looking into a mirror if I were you.
And the really nutty thing is I agree with you re wokeness, in particular if you read my posts you would know I have a real hang up about jobs worth attitudes and bureaucracy which wokeness tend to create.
I think you have shown by your enormous leaps to conclusions based upon no evidence about me I don't think we can rely on your knowledge on the amount of wokeness that exists either.
“Well there is nothing like jumping in feet first with total arrogance and ignorance is there”
Bro, this is what I DO. It’s my motto and my lodestar, which is why I’m sitting on a balcony drinking red wine in the midday Majorcan sun rather than doing something sensible like work in a small room in England in the drizzle
Well I love that response 'Leon'; it has style.
Most of us however don't put out holiday snaps on PB. Would you like to see mine of Portugal from 2 weeks ago?
Actually, yes. I like holiday snaps! Especially rn when we have been so starved of travel
It may not seem obvious but this trip to Spain has done absolute wonders for my mental health. I feel calmer, happier, freer, kinder, even physically fitter - swimming and hiking. And, after a year of deathly pallor to match my inner mood, I have a tan. It’s a good vibe
My last two lockdowns, of the three, were grim. Deeply grim. But if really feels like we are out of the worst now
I'm really pleased it has made you feel better. I have been lucky as I have a very large garden and a decent sized house so lockdown hasn't been too bad for me, but I feel for people stuck in flats and in particular young people.
I'm still not putting my holiday snaps on PB though.
Lockdown has been much easier on certain psychological types, as well. It’s not just having a garden, big house, age, and so on
For introverts (probably the majority on PB?) lockdown has been almost a blessing. No pressure to socialise, no stigma about staying in, the geek shall inherit the earth
In much more of an extrovert (prone to solitude, but still an extrovert). I like going out, exploring, meeting, all of that. Lockdown has been fucking miserable. Plus I live in a one bed flat. Yuk
There is data backing this up. Extroverts have suffered more
Yep, that makes sense. There are also other factors, time of life, personal circumstances.
As a PhD student, the pub, meeting up to do things were a big part of my life. Lockdown then would have been absolute hell, I'd have been really badly affected. I had housemates, maybe I'd have got to know them much better, but they weren't a big part of my social life (one was in a long term relationship and rarely there, the other was really odd). Now I've got a wife and two young children. I rarely go to the pub, I've felt fine with it, mostly. I don't think I've changed in terms of how outgoing I am.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
£25 at that sort of time (I'm guessing)? You could certainly get a decent Hornby Dublo set. And look what happens.
You'd have been better buying the train set, putting it unused in the attic, and selling it on the collector's market today.
Yes for sure. Or indeed buying the sweets. Still, you have to be in it to win it - and my hat remains in the ring to the tune of (I think) £55.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
Sensible bloke on WatO saying a good comparator would be flu for this as a respiratory disease. Deaths as we know fluctuate greatly. Another comparator would be deaths from air pollution (25-30,000 deaths) as an "upper ceiling" of what we should be able to tolerate from any particular disease/condition.
50 deaths a day is, of course...pause....calculator...18,250/year.
The other consideration is that it would probably take less effort for us to save the same number of deaths currently lost from air pollution, as we could save from Covid (above those already saved by the vaccine and prior efforts since March 2010).
The government could and should have been doing more about air pollution, and I'd like to see the government put more effort into that now that the Covid emergency is over.
I agree wholeheartedly with this article. The 3 most important lessons for Tories in by-elections must be: 1. Select good local candidate if possible. 2. Do not be complacent but put every effort in 3. Significantly improve your GOTV operation
I expect more LD gains in any by-election in places where they were second to Con in GE2019
Marginal Lab/Con by-elections in North and Midlands should be most interesting if we have any over the next 30 months.
I know its a bit crazy leftfield but also have some policies that are small state and fiscally balanced rather than nannying government and huge spending of money the government actually hasn't got.
Offer that policy and Labour will start recovering some of their Red Wall seats.
and to that i would say " so what? " I mean it does not matter to me if a high spending high nannying politician calls himself a tory or Labour (actually its probably more honest of them to cal themselves Labour) they are still a high spending high nannying politician
Indeed.
Let's stop distorting the housing market with subsidies.
Abolish the CGT main dwelling exemption loophole now.
£30bn every year to spend on proper care in old age, and a more orderly housing market, and less artificial ramping of house prices.
What's not to like?
Stamp duty typically represents several months’ gross salary, which for most people takes a long time to save. This is in itself a distortion of the house market by reducing liquidity and shoe horning ameters into the landlord business when they need to move location.
Charging CGT on main dwellings would be this distortion effect but on elephant steroids. A tax on inflation but only at the point of liquidating the asset… a huge disincentive to ever sell.
Yep CGT on primary properties really wouldn't work.
As has been said a number of times before a land value tax would be a better source of tax and fixer of the issue. It would encourage people in large properties to move when appropriate.
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
Nonsense. Freedom Day is a fixed mark, an irreversible removal of restrictions as there is absolutely no risk at all to the massive delta spike we are all now enjoying.
Okay, what would you do if you had to make the final decision? Would you open up, would you delay again, or would you slap on more restrictions?
Treat the answer as if you are the person in power, and you had to make the decision based on the information we have at hand.
1. Listen to the fucking experts. The NHS are doing their nut at the "throw your mask away" advice as voiced by Jenrick 2. Consider that pox isn't interested in politics. "We will never again lock down" or indeed reimpose any restrictions is bloody stupid 3. Take it in steps. Yes we want to let you do more. Yes it is encouraging that deaths and hospitalisations aren't currently following the big spike in cases like last time. But we do have a big spike in cases and have to adjust plans accordingly. Please continue to social distance. You need to keep wearing a mask. You should consider the wellbeing of yourselves and others before going into crowded places.
Lets put it this way. Am far happier to be north of the wall with a be more patient approach than south of it.
I asked you for a decision. Open up, delay, or retreat? A couple of words will do it.
As for your comments: 1) They are listening to the experts. The problem is, which experts? Too many people seem to want to listen to experts that back their views.
2) The pox isn't interested in politics, but too many people are willing to play politics with the pox.
3) They have been taking it in steps. What you have said here is individual guidance, not rules. What can open up, what can stay closed?
So, open up, delay or retreat? Go on, make a decision...
What part of take it in steps - open up some more but not entirely - was unclear?
What would retain of the restrictions left? - which are quite limited.
The point that few are making in this is that Delta is so virulent that only a Chinese style weld-people-in-their-homes-lockdown will bring R below 1.
So most restrictions don't have much benefit. And still have various costs.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Our Dean of Faculty put it really well: the problem arises when WFH becomes living at work. And it does.
I certainly found in the early days how difficult it is to "switch off".
I have to force myself to bunk off now and to go for a run, lift some heavy weights etc otherwise work takes over.
I just log off at 5pm (or whenever) and go and do something else. If anything I find it easier than in the office.
Cummings also thinks Boris “sold fishing out”, that Keir is “useless” and “can’t build a team”, and that Javid will just “do what officials tell him”.
Contra to the last point, he believes the July 19 freedoms are a mistake.
Lol, Cummings has completely lost it hasn't he. It really was like that scene out of Jerry Maguire when he walks out of the office and no one gives a fuck. Now all he can do is carp from the sidelines but no one's listening.
Lost it my ass! He's just getting going. He got rid of Hancock within 2 weeks of starting his campaign and he's got Johnson in his sights. The man is taking the dark arts of marketing to a new level.
At this rate the advertising industry might be awarded a George Cross.
Lol, as if was Cummings that got rid of Hancock. Cummings is in the lockdown forever camp, the Hancock scheme came from the anti-lockdown crowd. Isabelle Oakeshott was the first journalist to get eyes on.
Cummings is howling into the night. He might have become your hero but he's always been a complete c**t.
I am no fan of Cummings, but I think to suggest he had no hand in getting rid of Hancock seems a little naïve. It is likely that Hancock would have survived the snogging video if it hadn't already been revealed that Bozo thought he was "fucking useless". One also has to ask whether it was a coincidence that said video was leaked after Hancock became a liability to no.10. It didn't look terribly good that Bozo thought he was "fucking useless" and yet was too weak to sack him. I suspect the video might never have come to light had Cummings not undermined Hancock in the first place.
No way. Once the man directly responsible for stopping people meeting up during lockdown was found to be shagging someone not from his bubble in lockdown he was doomed. Johnson had a small window in which to sack him and failed to take i5t because (a) he's probably doing it himself (and has certainly had affairs) (b) he lacks the right political antenna to see the best approach (c) loyalty?
Boris isn't a person who will sack someone for doing something he himself has done.
Which given that we know he's had affairs, willingly given others money that they weren't really entitled to and bullied people doesn't leave many things that Boris can sack people for doing?
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
iirc HMG is already planning booster shots in the autumn. Yes, there it is in the press conference press release posted earlier.
The government is ensuring preparations are in place to offer third “booster” doses to everyone aged over 50 and the most vulnerable to boost their immunity over the winter months, based on interim advice from the JCVI. Final advice is expected in the coming months. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-to-set-out-plans-ahead-of-step-4
ETA of course the Israeli evidence will need to be studied before the big un-lockdown on the 19th.
My son had pfizer, is double jabbed and has previously had covid
Currently feeling sorry for himself with covid delta variant
Jeez. How bad is it? I’m now hearing lots of anecdotes of double jabbed types getting delta. Pff. No one in hospital but definitely laid up in bed
His sats went down to 89 and he was feeling sorry for himself - temperature a little high but not too bad.
Nights he says are awful with sweating, shaking spells.
I convinced him to talk to NHS once it got below 90 and they just seem to be saying keep an eye on it (he is, Sats at 94 earlier today)
Hope he pulls through quickly. One of the issues for the public is the nuance of whether the vaccines are working, and how good they are at the different measures of (a) stop you getting infected (b) stop you needing hopsital (c) stop you dying. Take Andrew Marr as an example. I think he thought that double vaccinated meant he was totally safe, and hence his reaction. But his illness was sufficiently moderated that he had mild disease and then back to work. We'd all prefer if the vaccines 100% stopped infection, but they don't. What they do do and are doing is keeping most from being that unwell.
Exactly.
It needs to be emphasised that that vaccination is not a suit of armour - you can still get it. It just means your chances of getting it are considerably lower, and if you do, the viral load is far less, and the virus is no longer novel to your immune system (your system is not "naive"). This puts it squarely in the category of viruses your body is prepared to get. In very unlucky cases (or if you are highly vulnerable), this can still lead to unpleasant or even very unpleasant outcomes.
For those who are most vulnerable, it is thereforewise to reduce one's risk level. Even something as simple as reducing the number of interactions indoors with people (not eliminating, but reducing the average number of people one interacts with per day) until this peak is done can make a significant difference.
It looks like, post double-vaccination, one's risk level against hospitalisation and/or death (or even really unpleasant symptoms short of hospital) are reduced down towards (and perhaps a bit below) those associated with influenza. If someone would be cautious in the circumstances of an influenza outbreak, that's the sort of level of caution they should probably follow until this peak is done (which will probably be between now and late August - because at this sort of rate of growth, the pool of potential hosts will be burned through quite rapidly)
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
Nonsense. Freedom Day is a fixed mark, an irreversible removal of restrictions as there is absolutely no risk at all to the massive delta spike we are all now enjoying.
Okay, what would you do if you had to make the final decision? Would you open up, would you delay again, or would you slap on more restrictions?
Treat the answer as if you are the person in power, and you had to make the decision based on the information we have at hand.
1. Listen to the fucking experts. The NHS are doing their nut at the "throw your mask away" advice as voiced by Jenrick 2. Consider that pox isn't interested in politics. "We will never again lock down" or indeed reimpose any restrictions is bloody stupid 3. Take it in steps. Yes we want to let you do more. Yes it is encouraging that deaths and hospitalisations aren't currently following the big spike in cases like last time. But we do have a big spike in cases and have to adjust plans accordingly. Please continue to social distance. You need to keep wearing a mask. You should consider the wellbeing of yourselves and others before going into crowded places.
Lets put it this way. Am far happier to be north of the wall with a be more patient approach than south of it.
I asked you for a decision. Open up, delay, or retreat? A couple of words will do it.
As for your comments: 1) They are listening to the experts. The problem is, which experts? Too many people seem to want to listen to experts that back their views.
2) The pox isn't interested in politics, but too many people are willing to play politics with the pox.
3) They have been taking it in steps. What you have said here is individual guidance, not rules. What can open up, what can stay closed?
So, open up, delay or retreat? Go on, make a decision...
What part of take it in steps - open up some more but not entirely - was unclear?
The steps - its as clear as mud.
Already this has been done in steps, so if you're saying more steps then what steps would you take now? What steps would you not take now?
Simply saying "do it in steps" is so vague as to be meaningless.
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
Nonsense. Freedom Day is a fixed mark, an irreversible removal of restrictions as there is absolutely no risk at all to the massive delta spike we are all now enjoying.
Okay, what would you do if you had to make the final decision? Would you open up, would you delay again, or would you slap on more restrictions?
Treat the answer as if you are the person in power, and you had to make the decision based on the information we have at hand.
1. Listen to the fucking experts. The NHS are doing their nut at the "throw your mask away" advice as voiced by Jenrick 2. Consider that pox isn't interested in politics. "We will never again lock down" or indeed reimpose any restrictions is bloody stupid 3. Take it in steps. Yes we want to let you do more. Yes it is encouraging that deaths and hospitalisations aren't currently following the big spike in cases like last time. But we do have a big spike in cases and have to adjust plans accordingly. Please continue to social distance. You need to keep wearing a mask. You should consider the wellbeing of yourselves and others before going into crowded places.
Lets put it this way. Am far happier to be north of the wall with a be more patient approach than south of it.
I asked you for a decision. Open up, delay, or retreat? A couple of words will do it.
As for your comments: 1) They are listening to the experts. The problem is, which experts? Too many people seem to want to listen to experts that back their views.
2) The pox isn't interested in politics, but too many people are willing to play politics with the pox.
3) They have been taking it in steps. What you have said here is individual guidance, not rules. What can open up, what can stay closed?
So, open up, delay or retreat? Go on, make a decision...
What part of take it in steps - open up some more but not entirely - was unclear?
That's not quite what you said. You said ' Yes we want to let you do more ... But ... we have to adjust our plans accordingly.' Then the rest of what you say could be true for a lockdown, the current situation, or an easing.
If I was running a hotel, or a hairdressers, or a pub, what you wrote was as clear as mud.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's not implausible that the faster we reach the peak, the lower the overall risk to unvaccinated vulnerable people. We're stuck in the logic of 'flattening the curve', but things are different now we have large levels of population immunity.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
What is the capacity constraint on our system? Staff or facilities?
If all those people entitled to go private, went private, would that have an impact on the backlog?
Marginal gains, but we remember Dave Brailsford...
Staff - and the pool of private staff heavily overlaps the public sector pool.
There isn't a great big pile of doctors and nurses sitting about, twiddling their thumbs, asking for work....
How unfortunate.
Anecdata: When why mum had her cataracts done, the first eye was in the NHS, and the second eye was by the same Dr privately as it would be quicker.
I had coffee this morning with the owner of a medical outsourcing business.
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
‘Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads Health authorities in Israel will consider whether to recommend a third booster shot’
Nonsense. Freedom Day is a fixed mark, an irreversible removal of restrictions as there is absolutely no risk at all to the massive delta spike we are all now enjoying.
Okay, what would you do if you had to make the final decision? Would you open up, would you delay again, or would you slap on more restrictions?
Treat the answer as if you are the person in power, and you had to make the decision based on the information we have at hand.
Easy as it is fcukwit Johnson you would go ahead and have all sorts of fudge deployed, any sane person who had not trashed their reputation as being useless and a serial liar would have a measured removal and retain any necessary restrictions based on sound scientific knowledge.
Hi Malc,
Hope you're keeping well. I'm hoping to come up to your bonny land soon, if the pox and Sturgeon allow.
The problem is that 'sound scientific knowledge' only gets you so far: especially as the scientists, politicians and public all seem to disagree on what the 'sound scientific knowledge' is.
And sometimes it is educated guesswork. Take the delay in second doses the government instigated: the general mood seems to be that it was worked, yet there was little 'sound scientific knowledge' behind it. There had been no trial on the delayed regime, and they only had vague glimmerings it would work, in theory and in some evidence from the trials. Yet they made the difficult decision, and I think we're better off because of it.
In addition, 'sound scientific knowledge' does not always come along, or can take a long time to be agreed. This can be fine - aside from when you're fighting a rapidly-moving virus...
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
No, certainly haven't, the £1,000 was a one off. But I do reliably get something rather than nothing, even if only £25 a month. The unfairness arises because of the way the returns are quantised, with £25 being the minimum. Then again if you entirely dequantised them you'd end up with a normal savings account.
Sensible bloke on WatO saying a good comparator would be flu for this as a respiratory disease. Deaths as we know fluctuate greatly. Another comparator would be deaths from air pollution (25-30,000 deaths) as an "upper ceiling" of what we should be able to tolerate from any particular disease/condition.
50 deaths a day is, of course...pause....calculator...18,250/year.
And we are about half of that at the moment. Another way of looking at it is that there are about 1665 deaths a day in the UK of which roughly 30 are currently with COVID.
A quick calculation of the CFR, assuming a 23 day lag. Weekly average figures.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
The reality is, we are open with respect to the virus spreading. Schools are open (okay, holidays coming) and, crucially, most people are just getting on with their lives where possible (parties, BBQs, etc.).
The only things that are massively different are where the government is restricting commercial activity. I don't think letting businesses reopen fully would make much difference. The only thing that they might want to hold off on are people going back to the office. They could say, "if you wouldn't mind holding off until September, that would be great, but if you need to travel for work, get on with it."
What is the capacity constraint on our system? Staff or facilities?
If all those people entitled to go private, went private, would that have an impact on the backlog?
Marginal gains, but we remember Dave Brailsford...
Staff - and the pool of private staff heavily overlaps the public sector pool.
There isn't a great big pile of doctors and nurses sitting about, twiddling their thumbs, asking for work....
How unfortunate.
Anecdata: When why mum had her cataracts done, the first eye was in the NHS, and the second eye was by the same Dr privately as it would be quicker.
I had coffee this morning with the owner of a medical outsourcing business.
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
Its never made much sense to me why we pay so much for hospital equipment and infrastructure only to operate it at peak capacity essentially Monday to Friday 9 to 5 (barring obvs A&E being at high capacity weekend nights).
Go into a hospital for an appointment in the midweek and it can be almost impossible to find a parking space, go late in the evening or at the weekend and the car parks are largely deserted and empty.
Private businesses with high infrastructure costs like factories etc look to make use of their assets around the week, if not around the clock, and not just in weekday office hours.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
It is random - the Government Actuary's Department confirms this for each draw.
The more you hold, the closer your result is expected to be to the published expected rate of return (because of the law of large numbers), although randomness will ensure the two are never exactly the same. Conversely, the less you hold, the more volatile your return will be. A little under 4% for the year (2% after 7 months) sounds like good fortune, but certainly not suspicious.
Well, if they had charged the full cost, the number of shipping companies that would have called their insurance agents, done some maths and stopped using the Suez canal would have been.... interesting....
Arguable, since despite the blockage both the canal and shipping companies (the latter especially) have increased revenues.
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
What is the capacity constraint on our system? Staff or facilities?
If all those people entitled to go private, went private, would that have an impact on the backlog?
Marginal gains, but we remember Dave Brailsford...
Staff - and the pool of private staff heavily overlaps the public sector pool.
There isn't a great big pile of doctors and nurses sitting about, twiddling their thumbs, asking for work....
How unfortunate.
Anecdata: When why mum had her cataracts done, the first eye was in the NHS, and the second eye was by the same Dr privately as it would be quicker.
I had coffee this morning with the owner of a medical outsourcing business.
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
Its never made much sense to me why we pay so much for hospital equipment and infrastructure only to operate it at peak capacity essentially Monday to Friday 9 to 5 (barring obvs A&E being at high capacity weekend nights).
Go into a hospital for an appointment in the midweek and it can be almost impossible to find a parking space, go late in the evening or at the weekend and the car parks are largely deserted and empty.
Private businesses with high infrastructure costs like factories etc look to make use of their assets around the week, if not around the clock, and not just in weekday office hours.
The problem with the 24/7 argument is that factories are designed around a large number of semi skilled workers which means it's possible to run a night shift.
That just isn't possible with a lot of NHS equipment (say an MRI scanner) where there is just about enough trained staff to operate a 9 to 5 schedule (and sometimes not even that).
Now you could resolve that by training more people up but that would be a lot of work.
Sensible bloke on WatO saying a good comparator would be flu for this as a respiratory disease. Deaths as we know fluctuate greatly. Another comparator would be deaths from air pollution (25-30,000 deaths) as an "upper ceiling" of what we should be able to tolerate from any particular disease/condition.
50 deaths a day is, of course...pause....calculator...18,250/year.
And we are about half of that at the moment. Another way of looking at it is that there are about 1665 deaths a day in the UK of which roughly 30 are currently with COVID.
A quick calculation of the CFR, assuming a 23 day lag. Weekly average figures.
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
No knock warrants are used ridiculously frequently.
The problem is that the American police proceed on the assumption that everyone is really Hans Gruber and chums, equipped like a heavy infantry unit and just waiting to kick off. Hence the military tactics.
Fascinating to read the inference that I am now shilling for the SNP to "fit in". Not sure how campaigning against them means that I am supporting them but from a paid up member of the Cult of Boris perhaps thats their logic.
Thinking that the SNP government is less shit and more credible than the Tory government isn't supporting the SNP.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
It is random - the Government Actuary's Department confirms this for each draw.
The more you hold, the closer your result is expected to be to the published expected rate of return (because of the law of large numbers), although randomness will ensure the two are never exactly the same. Conversely, the less you hold, the more volatile your return will be. A little under 4% for the year (2% after 7 months) sounds like good fortune, but certainly not suspicious.
Yes, makes sense. My £25 win all those years ago was nearly 100% as a yield for the year of the win.
Sensible bloke on WatO saying a good comparator would be flu for this as a respiratory disease. Deaths as we know fluctuate greatly. Another comparator would be deaths from air pollution (25-30,000 deaths) as an "upper ceiling" of what we should be able to tolerate from any particular disease/condition.
50 deaths a day is, of course...pause....calculator...18,250/year.
And we are about half of that at the moment. Another way of looking at it is that there are about 1665 deaths a day in the UK of which roughly 30 are currently with COVID.
A quick calculation of the CFR, assuming a 23 day lag. Weekly average figures.
"our review also identified substantial variability by age, ranging from approximately one death per 100,000 symptomatic cases in children to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 symptomatic cases in the elderly"
If this is correct, then the CFR for COVID in the UK is below the CFR for influenza A(H1N1pdm09)
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
The targetting of operation may not be racist, but the disproportionality of them is.
If lots of white voters were randomly and innocently getting their doors knocked in for no good reason then suddenly people might start to think this is not such a good idea and to try alternative tactics - but if your attitude is to go ahead like this as its only n****** getting their houses raided no knock style then that definitely is racist.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
John Oliver has done pieces on this.
Data collected by Kraska shows that municipal police and sheriffs’ departments used no-knock or quick-knock warrants about 1,500 times in the early 1980s, but that number rose to about 40,000 times per year by 2000, he said. In 2010, Kraska estimated 60,000-70,000 no-knock or quick-knock raids were conducted by local police annually. The majority of those raids were looking for marijuana, he added.
So yes, the American police are turning up in heavily armed trucks and vehicles, with enough assault weapons to invade the UK for marijuana offences and other minor crimes.
Civil asset forfeiture rules make it profitable for the police and very safe for the rozzers.
But they oddity is something like 90% of these are targeting minorities.
John Oliver pointed out many examples of where they used this approach which contrasted with the approach with white people where the charges were similar or much more severe.
So a black marijuana suspect gets the no knock warrant replete with assault vehicles whilst the same police department asks a white man on the run for a violent attempted rape allegation to turn up to the station with his lawyer.
What would retain of the restrictions left? - which are quite limited.
The point that few are making in this is that Delta is so virulent that only a Chinese style weld-people-in-their-homes-lockdown will bring R below 1.
So most restrictions don't have much benefit. And still have various costs.
I'm fairly sure that last spring's lockdown would not have worked against Delta when essentially nobody had any immunity. We would either have had much stricter controls, perhaps mobilising the army, or the death tolls would have been several times higher.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
I've got £35k in and get a 'prize' about 1 in 3 months? ranging from £25 to £75 or so.
What is the capacity constraint on our system? Staff or facilities?
If all those people entitled to go private, went private, would that have an impact on the backlog?
Marginal gains, but we remember Dave Brailsford...
Staff - and the pool of private staff heavily overlaps the public sector pool.
There isn't a great big pile of doctors and nurses sitting about, twiddling their thumbs, asking for work....
How unfortunate.
Anecdata: When why mum had her cataracts done, the first eye was in the NHS, and the second eye was by the same Dr privately as it would be quicker.
I had coffee this morning with the owner of a medical outsourcing business.
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
I suspect there are equally some historic privatisation requirements that have over time resulted in the easier pieces of working being offloaded to private practice.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
Skimming off the small holders to boost the big boys. Reverse Robin Hood. Scandal.
But also a perfect microcosm of the City, and the logical mirror of economies of scale, so maybe not.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
It is random - the Government Actuary's Department confirms this for each draw.
The more you hold, the closer your result is expected to be to the published expected rate of return (because of the law of large numbers), although randomness will ensure the two are never exactly the same. Conversely, the less you hold, the more volatile your return will be. A little under 4% for the year (2% after 7 months) sounds like good fortune, but certainly not suspicious.
Absolutely. They publish an interest rate and that will be the rate of return. Same as with the lottery. Every 721,000 years I should win the euromillions.
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
John Oliver has done pieces on this.
Data collected by Kraska shows that municipal police and sheriffs’ departments used no-knock or quick-knock warrants about 1,500 times in the early 1980s, but that number rose to about 40,000 times per year by 2000, he said. In 2010, Kraska estimated 60,000-70,000 no-knock or quick-knock raids were conducted by local police annually. The majority of those raids were looking for marijuana, he added.
So yes, the American police are turning up in heavily armed trucks and vehicles, with enough assault weapons to invade the UK for marijuana offences and other minor crimes.
Civil asset forfeiture rules make it profitable for the police and very safe for the rozzers.
But they oddity is something like 90% of these are targeting minorities.
John Oliver pointed out many examples of where they used this approach which contrasted with the approach with white people where the charges were similar or much more severe.
So a black marijuana suspect gets the no knock warrant replete with assault vehicles whilst the same police department asks a white man on the run for a violent attempted rape allegation to turn up to the station with his lawyer.
My favourite comment on this, was by a former special forces soldier, who failed his probation as a police officer. For not being er.... tactical enough with suspects.
He pointed out, in a rather good article, that US cops were going in harder, more often, than he had been doing in Afghanistan.
I didn't think' defunding the police' was a British issue. TBH, I'm not exactly sure what it means. If the slogan was 'Re-educate the Police' I'd sympathise.
This is where BLM and others have screwed up.
Defunding the police actually means reallocating funding.
For example they would ban the police from buying military grade weapons and vehicles and rather have them spend that money on community policing.
Fun fact in a lot of states in America when the police carry out a no knock warrant and blow off the front of your house to enter and they have in fact come to the wrong house, they don't have to pay out any (or very little) recompense to the innocent party.
Would you be astonished to learn that no knock warrants disproportionately target African Americans and other minorities?
The compensation rule is clearly wrong.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
John Oliver has done pieces on this.
Data collected by Kraska shows that municipal police and sheriffs’ departments used no-knock or quick-knock warrants about 1,500 times in the early 1980s, but that number rose to about 40,000 times per year by 2000, he said. In 2010, Kraska estimated 60,000-70,000 no-knock or quick-knock raids were conducted by local police annually. The majority of those raids were looking for marijuana, he added.
So yes, the American police are turning up in heavily armed trucks and vehicles, with enough assault weapons to invade the UK for marijuana offences and other minor crimes.
Civil asset forfeiture rules make it profitable for the police and very safe for the rozzers.
But they oddity is something like 90% of these are targeting minorities.
John Oliver pointed out many examples of where they used this approach which contrasted with the approach with white people where the charges were similar or much more severe.
So a black marijuana suspect gets the no knock warrant replete with assault vehicles whilst the same police department asks a white man on the run for a violent attempted rape allegation to turn up to the station with his lawyer.
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
Sensible bloke on WatO saying a good comparator would be flu for this as a respiratory disease. Deaths as we know fluctuate greatly. Another comparator would be deaths from air pollution (25-30,000 deaths) as an "upper ceiling" of what we should be able to tolerate from any particular disease/condition.
50 deaths a day is, of course...pause....calculator...18,250/year.
The other consideration is that it would probably take less effort for us to save the same number of deaths currently lost from air pollution, as we could save from Covid (above those already saved by the vaccine and prior efforts since March 2010).
The government could and should have been doing more about air pollution, and I'd like to see the government put more effort into that now that the Covid emergency is over.
Probably worth also pointing out that there’s likely crossover between likely Covid victims and flu/air pollution. It’s not as if adding Covid to the mix adds total Covid deaths to those occurring anyway. In some cases they will replace them. And from another angle, it is reasonable to expect that a portion of the population will take to mask wearing more regularly and taking more care with general awareness of transmission which will generally reduce infection rates of flu as well.
@Charles are you suggesting that I should have to take an entire day off work and drive to Birmingham, for example, to have an MRI?
What about people who don’t drive?
I might ask you to go to Durham for an MRI.
I think it was me that suggested Birmingham (somewhere fairly central for a national facility). At the time I needed the scan I would have happily gone to Birmingham. I would have probably taken the train.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
Yep, over the very very long run. I'll be leaving them (my £55) to my son and one day he'll get a £25. Maybe another in his lifetime. Then HIS son - since it's a man thing, this - will pick it up, £105 now, and he'll get 3 or 4 wins. And so on and so forth. The yield will slowly but surely tend to the benchmark.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
Yes, I think it's OK - as I understand it, the 1% average return gives a 1/25000 chance, but as some payouts are larger than the base £25, the chance of actually getting anything in a given month is 1/37500. I put in the full £50K (where else can you get 1% interest with zero risk?) and get £25 or £50 in a typical month.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
No, because it's quantised. If 50,000 gets you £25, 5,000 does not get you £2.50 because £2.50 does not exist, so 5,000 gets you a 1 in 10 chance of £25 and a 9 in 10 chance of nothing.
What is the capacity constraint on our system? Staff or facilities?
If all those people entitled to go private, went private, would that have an impact on the backlog?
Marginal gains, but we remember Dave Brailsford...
Staff - and the pool of private staff heavily overlaps the public sector pool.
There isn't a great big pile of doctors and nurses sitting about, twiddling their thumbs, asking for work....
How unfortunate.
Anecdata: When why mum had her cataracts done, the first eye was in the NHS, and the second eye was by the same Dr privately as it would be quicker.
I had coffee this morning with the owner of a medical outsourcing business.
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
The scandal of the NHS which politicians (particularly Labour ones) dare not speak of is that hospital doctors can be fully paid up salaried staff of the NHS and also have a private practice also. All this dates back to when Labour introduced the NHS, and caved in to the arrangement as a sop to the all powerful doctor's unions. What it means in practice (if you excuse the pun) is that British hospital Consultants get a nice big fat salary and pension from the NHS (taxpayer), a job for life, and can do very well paid private work on the side, with no one questioning how they, who often claim to be "overworked" can do two jobs?
Should we be allowed to question the motives of the oh so virtuous leading lights in the NHS? Nope we must never criticise those hard working doctorsannurses!
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
No, because it's quantised. If 50,000 gets you £25, 5,000 does not get you £2.50 because £2.50 does not exist, so 5,000 gets you a 1 in 10 chance of £25 and a 9 in 10 chance of nothing.
That's still the same long-run expected outcome though, it just makes it more volatile.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
I've got £35k in and get a 'prize' about 1 in 3 months? ranging from £25 to £75 or so.
Yep, similar for us. Put enough in and you get, on average, close to the advertised return.
If you have £28 million (would it be? £2/ticket?) to spend on the lottery then you can reliably turn that into a (smaller unless there have been a lot of rollovers and no one else wins) share of the jackpot - might be urban legend, but wasn't there a syndicate somewhere in the states that did buy every possible combination for a lottery when the prize went high enough to make that likely (the risk being other winners making your payout smaller) profitable?
(PBs different to Nat Lot of course, as everyone has a unique combination)
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
One of the TR4As I had a bit later on I had been driving around for a few months and when I took it for a routine service the bloke told me, and forgive the non-technical description, that the top half of the car wasn't connected to the bottom half. The body was just sitting on the rolling chassis and was staying there by weight alone.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
No, because it's quantised. If 50,000 gets you £25, 5,000 does not get you £2.50 because £2.50 does not exist, so 5,000 gets you a 1 in 10 chance of £25 and a 9 in 10 chance of nothing.
That's still the same long-run expected outcome though, it just makes it more volatile.
And what are we all in the long run? (Maynard Keynes).
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
No, because it's quantised. If 50,000 gets you £25, 5,000 does not get you £2.50 because £2.50 does not exist, so 5,000 gets you a 1 in 10 chance of £25 and a 9 in 10 chance of nothing.
The law of large numbers is your friend here, as has been mentioned. In the long run (yes, I know) the rate of return on your £5,000 will be the interest rate payable, even if that rate is 1.75647382%.
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Mini Clubman estate. The car you used surprisingly often to see on the M6 with 4 nuns in it. A curiously unnerving sight.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
Though statistically the returns are likely to be less variable over a given period of time for larger holdings compared with smaller.
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
Skimming off the small holders to boost the big boys. Reverse Robin Hood. Scandal.
But also a perfect microcosm of the City, and the logical mirror of economies of scale, so maybe not.
No it isn't. The expected rate of return is the same, in mean terms. The median will be different, because the smaller holders will have greater upside potential. It's arguable whether, on balance, greater certainty is "better" than greater upside potential, but it's perfectly possible for different investors to have different preferences.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
Yep, over the very very long run. I'll be leaving them (my £55) to my son and one day he'll get a £25. Maybe another in his lifetime. Then HIS son - since it's a man thing, this - will pick it up, £105 now, and he'll get 3 or 4 wins. And so on and so forth. The yield will slowly but surely tend to the benchmark.
I have always thought it would be nice to have an occasional pay out similar to Premium Bonds for taxation. Yes it would lead to whining about the rich getting richer, but what a great incentive to pay your fair level of tax, knowing there was small chance that the more you paid the greater the chance you could get a pay out!
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
A very rare 3.5-litre V10 Alfa Romeo F1 engine, capable of producing around 620bhp is on sale for less than £5,000 👀
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Mini Clubman estate. The car you used surprisingly often to see on the M6 with 4 nuns in it. A curiously unnerving sight.
Is that the one that was prone to wet and dry rot of timber? If so, what was the SOP?
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.
The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
I don't buy that you are any worse off owning a handful than owning the full whack. The rate of return is the same.
No, on average, you're not. But the quantisation (minimum prize £25?) means that there's a significant risk of holding say £50 for a long time and getting nothing, whereas there's little risk of holding £50k for a long time and getting nothing. At 1%, £50 should net 50p per year, but if the smallest prize if £25 then that means you win on average every 50 years. On £50k you should expect £500/year, so almost two prizes of £25 per month. It's likely to get somewhere near. Of course, some people (around 1 in 50 per year) with £50 get £25 and a 50% return in a year.
(Above numbers wrong as there are >£25 prizes - the big payouts mean that apart from the big winners everyone else gets a bit less than 1%, of course, so all the estimates above over-optimistic)
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
The data from blood donors is in the weekly report:
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Mini Clubman estate. The car you used surprisingly often to see on the M6 with 4 nuns in it. A curiously unnerving sight.
We own one of these as a hobby car. Great fun, but its not called 'Bill' without reason...
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Mini Clubman estate. The car you used surprisingly often to see on the M6 with 4 nuns in it. A curiously unnerving sight.
Is that the one that was prone to wet and dry rot of timber? If so, what was the SOP?
No, by that time the "timber" was stick-on plastic stripes. Had they been wood I'd have gone for creosote.
I thought I was an introvert when I was younger and I realised over time that I was very much not, just didn't have a lot of social skills.
But like any other skill, practice and time can improve anything. I am now at a point where I can see the benefits, certainly in software engineering I progress a lot faster with those skills.
I was initially very happy WFH but over the last few months I have become tired of it and I want to go back to the office and see people. The pub is getting me through.
I am sold on WFH + office but I am not sold on WFH forever.
Interesting idea.
What social skills did you develop, and how did you go about developing them?
Well the very basic ones, rather embarrassing really. Knowing what to say, getting on with anyone etc.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Thanks for answering! I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
When I was 18 my "year off" was taking a succession of temporary jobs - each between one and three weeks. So every month a couple of times I would walk into a place with completely new people. Whether in an office, building site, removals company, delivery, etc. Was pretty daunting at first but after a while you get used to it. Did a huge amount for my confidence, etc. Helped to make me the arrogant git I am today.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
Anger.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Mini Clubman estate. The car you used surprisingly often to see on the M6 with 4 nuns in it. A curiously unnerving sight.
Is that the one that was prone to wet and dry rot of timber? If so, what was the SOP?
Nah - that was the Countryman. Clubman estate had fake wood trim from the start, or at the end of the production run, no wood at all.
Does anyone have a link to the latest estimate of seropositivity in the UK - what percentage of the population have antibodies to coronavirus, whether from vaccine or infection?
Thanks. I was trying to find roughly how many in the UK do not have antibodies, and hence a guesstimate of what the pool for infection with Delta is. The figures JLilburne gave of for adults only, and oddly that number is below the number having received one or more shot.
I am guessing that a fair number of under-18s now have been exposed.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
Yes, I think it's OK - as I understand it, the 1% average return gives a 1/25000 chance, but as some payouts are larger than the base £25, the chance of actually getting anything in a given month is 1/37500. I put in the full £50K (where else can you get 1% interest with zero risk?) and get £25 or £50 in a typical month.
Not quite zero risk, if you take the view that risk is defined as deviation from the expected outcome. 0.5% return in AAA government bonds or an FSCS protected account is actually zero risk, since the return is known with certainty, but premium bonds technically carry a downside risk which can be up to the expected rate of return.
On the other hand, premium bonds also come with a pretty nice upside "risk", which is something that few other zero or very low risk investments can boast.
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
Skimming off the small holders to boost the big boys. Reverse Robin Hood. Scandal.
But also a perfect microcosm of the City, and the logical mirror of economies of scale, so maybe not.
No it isn't. The expected rate of return is the same, in mean terms. The median will be different, because the smaller holders will have greater upside potential. It's arguable whether, on balance, greater certainty is "better" than greater upside potential, but it's perfectly possible for different investors to have different preferences.
Just to point out £50k is the maximum you can invest, so the "big boys", so to speak, aren't investing completely disproportionate sums and everyone will see their return fluctuate
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
Funnily enough that's my £25 bet with @noneoftheabove - on nightclubs. If they can open free of legal restrictions after 19/7, I win. If they can't, he wins.
As to Johnson saying "no return to any restrictions", that's just feelgood rhetoric. If for whatever reason we again find ourselves with the health service projected to collapse due to a rapidly spreading infectious virus, there'll be restrictions.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.
The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
I'm not sure what's worse: the lucky February coincidence or that they've not even had to wait six months before copping the big'un.
Isn't there a conspiracy theory that bonds purchased more recently do better? I haven't bothered buying any, but if interest rates don't go back to something like pre-COVID by Christmas then I might. But then I guess there has to be a real chance that the government slashes NS&I rates.
had a £1000 worth for seven years and did not win a thing. The odds on that were about 2% . Whilst I get that ERNIE does not select tickets as such but numbers that are then matched to current bonds list , with that apparent luck I had doubts in my mid my numbers were active so sold out. Probably irrational as maybe I was just very unlucky but no point in playing something if you are not convinced yourself you are in the game!
I was given £5 worth when I was born, 43 years ago. Still got £5 worth. Haven't won a dickie bird. Might as well just let it sit there and continue to depreciate. I think I've got more chance of being struck by lightning than winning anything.
I have the max and get something every month, usually a 25 or 2 X 25. Spookily this year I've had a 1000 and a 100 despite payout rates having allegedly reduced. The system seems rigged in favour of those who can max out.
I was gifted a few pounds worth at birth. Then, when I was 8, I had a win. £25 which was massive then, esp for an 8 yo. Instead of buying a years supply of sweets or a top notch train set - which I could have done - I opted to reinvest the whole sum in more premium bonds. Sort of boy I was. The sort to make his parents proud. Have not had a win since.
They look like a tory scam on the poor. Owning a handful is like buying lottery tickets except that the payouts suck, while owning the full monty has paid me north of 2% this year already, and it's July.
It's meant to be random (I think?) so that shouldn't be the case. If you've been getting that sort of yield on the max holding, year after year, it does seem a bit fishy, but perhaps you've just been lucky.
As the total holding is 50K, it's not surprising he's doing rather better than you as you have 0.1 and a bit % of his holding?
Yes, good point. Although over the very long run it should to some extent balance out, I'd have thought.
Yep, if Ishmael is getting £25 per month* on £50k then you should expect a £25 payout about every 83 years or so on your £50.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
Skimming off the small holders to boost the big boys. Reverse Robin Hood. Scandal.
But also a perfect microcosm of the City, and the logical mirror of economies of scale, so maybe not.
No it isn't. The expected rate of return is the same, in mean terms. The median will be different, because the smaller holders will have greater upside potential. It's arguable whether, on balance, greater certainty is "better" than greater upside potential, but it's perfectly possible for different investors to have different preferences.
My own views on whether to open up, stay at the same level, or slap on more restrictions:
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
It's pretty much a done deal, isn't it, that July 19th is going ahead with neither delay nor serious exceptions?
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
Its going ahead because it is in the political interests of the PM for it to go ahead. Its *what* goes ahead that is the problem. @JosiasJessop wasn't happy that I wasn't being precise so let me give a more precise no from perspective - nightclubs.
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
How about if you don't want to be infected at a nightclub, you don't go to a nightclub.
The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
Judging by the number of teens who currently have Covid (anecdata, that said) I think nightclubs will be very safe for all but the anti-vax 40-64yr olds and what the hell are they doing there in the first place?
Well indeed. If an anti-vax 55 year old goes clubbing and gets infected then that's called Personal Responsibility.
Comments
Charging CGT on main dwellings would be this distortion effect but on elephant steroids. A tax on inflation but only at the point of liquidating the asset… a huge disincentive to ever sell.
In all honesty just forcing yourself to meet lots of people is how you do it. Then you gain confidence as you quickly realise it doesn't really matter what you say. It's not fun at first, I used to go bright red in the face but now I take it all in my stride.
At some point you just really stop caring what people think of you - and then you can do mostly anything. It's interesting now to witness others who I imagine deal with what I used to, I meet quite a lot of them in my profession.
Anyone can do it, it's just a skill you have to work on.
Take Andrew Marr as an example. I think he thought that double vaccinated meant he was totally safe, and hence his reaction. But his illness was sufficiently moderated that he had mild disease and then back to work. We'd all prefer if the vaccines 100% stopped infection, but they don't. What they do do and are doing is keeping most from being that unwell.
And talking of being distracted….laters
I imagine a lot of PBers might struggle with the same things.
As a PhD student, the pub, meeting up to do things were a big part of my life. Lockdown then would have been absolute hell, I'd have been really badly affected. I had housemates, maybe I'd have got to know them much better, but they weren't a big part of my social life (one was in a long term relationship and rarely there, the other was really odd). Now I've got a wife and two young children. I rarely go to the pub, I've felt fine with it, mostly. I don't think I've changed in terms of how outgoing I am.
Open up.
It's easy for me to say: as a family, we prefer to lock ourselves down a little longer for various reasons, and we have the capability to do so. When saying 'open up', I'm well aware other are not in that fortunate situation. We shall continue to wear masks and exercise caution until the numbers are down: but that is our choice.
The dreaded pox is resurgent, and that is bad news. However, the lockdowns were sold to us on the basis of the NHS being able to cope with Covid patients, and the connection between cases and hospitalisations appears to have been broken. People are fed up, and the side effects of lockdown are growing more pernicious day by day.
I will say that, despite the carping, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision. It's one of the cases where anyone claiming there is a definite 'correct and easy' decision is either a fool or a knowing liar.
The government could and should have been doing more about air pollution, and I'd like to see the government put more effort into that now that the Covid emergency is over.
As has been said a number of times before a land value tax would be a better source of tax and fixer of the issue. It would encourage people in large properties to move when appropriate.
The point that few are making in this is that Delta is so virulent that only a Chinese style weld-people-in-their-homes-lockdown will bring R below 1.
So most restrictions don't have much benefit. And still have various costs.
Which given that we know he's had affairs, willingly given others money that they weren't really entitled to and bullied people doesn't leave many things that Boris can sack people for doing?
It needs to be emphasised that that vaccination is not a suit of armour - you can still get it. It just means your chances of getting it are considerably lower, and if you do, the viral load is far less, and the virus is no longer novel to your immune system (your system is not "naive"). This puts it squarely in the category of viruses your body is prepared to get. In very unlucky cases (or if you are highly vulnerable), this can still lead to unpleasant or even very unpleasant outcomes.
For those who are most vulnerable, it is thereforewise to reduce one's risk level. Even something as simple as reducing the number of interactions indoors with people (not eliminating, but reducing the average number of people one interacts with per day) until this peak is done can make a significant difference.
It looks like, post double-vaccination, one's risk level against hospitalisation and/or death (or even really unpleasant symptoms short of hospital) are reduced down towards (and perhaps a bit below) those associated with influenza. If someone would be cautious in the circumstances of an influenza outbreak, that's the sort of level of caution they should probably follow until this peak is done (which will probably be between now and late August - because at this sort of rate of growth, the pool of potential hosts will be burned through quite rapidly)
Already this has been done in steps, so if you're saying more steps then what steps would you take now? What steps would you not take now?
Simply saying "do it in steps" is so vague as to be meaningless.
If I was running a hotel, or a hairdressers, or a pub, what you wrote was as clear as mud.
Or have I missed something? Are the drums beating out something else?
His comment was that consultants are contracted to work a certain number of hours for the NHS and they like to do them morning/early afternoon Mon-Thursday.
He then sends in a team of nurses and doctors (from out of trust to avoid conflicts) to utilise the space Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Sticks to lower risk/simpler procedures (cataracts & endoscopy etc) and pushes them through about one per hour. Makes a huge dent in waiting lists by utilising capacity that would otherwise be wasted.
His clients are actually the NHS trusts, so it’s not private, but if gives you a sense of why private can be faster. Roughly speaking it’s about 10% of the patient pool (and often the healthier ones) looking to utilise around 30% of the available capacity. That gives a major time advantage - but it’s own possible because the NHS is not using their resources efficiently
Hope you're keeping well. I'm hoping to come up to your bonny land soon, if the pox and Sturgeon allow.
The problem is that 'sound scientific knowledge' only gets you so far: especially as the scientists, politicians and public all seem to disagree on what the 'sound scientific knowledge' is.
And sometimes it is educated guesswork. Take the delay in second doses the government instigated: the general mood seems to be that it was worked, yet there was little 'sound scientific knowledge' behind it. There had been no trial on the delayed regime, and they only had vague glimmerings it would work, in theory and in some evidence from the trials. Yet they made the difficult decision, and I think we're better off because of it.
In addition, 'sound scientific knowledge' does not always come along, or can take a long time to be agreed. This can be fine - aside from when you're fighting a rapidly-moving virus...
28 Dec 42,765 cases 20 Jan, 1248 deaths. CFR = 2.9%
8 Jun 6,556 cases 1 Jul 17.4 deaths. CFR = 0.27%.
How does that compare with seasonal flu? I recall from somewhere it's about 0.3% although I can't substantiate that with googling.
We don't mitigate against seasonal flu, other than jabbing the most vulnerable
The only things that are massively different are where the government is restricting commercial activity. I don't think letting businesses reopen fully would make much difference. The only thing that they might want to hold off on are people going back to the office. They could say, "if you wouldn't mind holding off until September, that would be great, but if you need to travel for work, get on with it."
Go into a hospital for an appointment in the midweek and it can be almost impossible to find a parking space, go late in the evening or at the weekend and the car parks are largely deserted and empty.
Private businesses with high infrastructure costs like factories etc look to make use of their assets around the week, if not around the clock, and not just in weekday office hours.
The more you hold, the closer your result is expected to be to the published expected rate of return (because of the law of large numbers), although randomness will ensure the two are never exactly the same. Conversely, the less you hold, the more volatile your return will be. A little under 4% for the year (2% after 7 months) sounds like good fortune, but certainly not suspicious.
But as for targeting it depends which crimes “no knock” warrants are granted for. For example (just for illustration as I don’t know) that the majority of no knock warrants are given to target violent gang members AND a disproportionate percentage of violent gang members are African Americans then it wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s not sufficient to say “this is out of line with national averages and therefore it must be racist”
That just isn't possible with a lot of NHS equipment (say an MRI scanner) where there is just about enough trained staff to operate a 9 to 5 schedule (and sometimes not even that).
Now you could resolve that by training more people up but that would be a lot of work.
The problem is that the American police proceed on the assumption that everyone is really Hans Gruber and chums, equipped like a heavy infantry unit and just waiting to kick off. Hence the military tactics.
"our review also identified substantial variability by age, ranging from approximately one death per 100,000 symptomatic cases in children to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 symptomatic cases in the elderly"
If this is correct, then the CFR for COVID in the UK is below the CFR for influenza A(H1N1pdm09)
If lots of white voters were randomly and innocently getting their doors knocked in for no good reason then suddenly people might start to think this is not such a good idea and to try alternative tactics - but if your attitude is to go ahead like this as its only n****** getting their houses raided no knock style then that definitely is racist.
* Seems his return is actually a bit better than that, so maybe you'll have less than 83 years between prizes (on average, of course - could be next month!)
Data collected by Kraska shows that municipal police and sheriffs’ departments used no-knock or quick-knock warrants about 1,500 times in the early 1980s, but that number rose to about 40,000 times per year by 2000, he said. In 2010, Kraska estimated 60,000-70,000 no-knock or quick-knock raids were conducted by local police annually. The majority of those raids were looking for marijuana, he added.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-war-on-drugs-gave-rise-to-no-knock-warrants-breonna-taylors-death-could-end-them
So yes, the American police are turning up in heavily armed trucks and vehicles, with enough assault weapons to invade the UK for marijuana offences and other minor crimes.
Civil asset forfeiture rules make it profitable for the police and very safe for the rozzers.
But they oddity is something like 90% of these are targeting minorities.
John Oliver pointed out many examples of where they used this approach which contrasted with the approach with white people where the charges were similar or much more severe.
So a black marijuana suspect gets the no knock warrant replete with assault vehicles whilst the same police department asks a white man on the run for a violent attempted rape allegation to turn up to the station with his lawyer.
Also meant that although I had missed out on the experience of building a school in Laos I could take a Triumph Spitfire Mk III to Uni with me. (Sozza Dura.)
But also a perfect microcosm of the City, and the logical mirror of economies of scale, so maybe not.
Which is actually how it's often done around here. Tuesday the MRI scanner is in Bishop Auckland, Thursday its at Darlington Rugby club car park.
He pointed out, in a rather good article, that US cops were going in harder, more often, than he had been doing in Afghanistan.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-qualified-immunity-and-what-does-it-have-do-police-reform
Lots of talk of reform, but not all that much action.
My university cars were a Renault 5 Gordini (the first car I ever did 100mph in), a 2CV Fourgonnette with 680cc barrels and a 3 bar 'Belgian' grill (wish I still had this) and finally a Mk.1 GTI that was lowered, had no interior trim or rear brakes to save weight and a forged MoT pass.
Should we be allowed to question the motives of the oh so virtuous leading lights in the NHS? Nope we must never criticise those hard working doctorsannurses!
If you have £28 million (would it be? £2/ticket?) to spend on the lottery then you can reliably turn that into a (smaller unless there have been a lot of rollovers and no one else wins) share of the jackpot - might be urban legend, but wasn't there a syndicate somewhere in the states that did buy every possible combination for a lottery when the prize went high enough to make that likely (the risk being other winners making your payout smaller) profitable?
(PBs different to Nat Lot of course, as everyone has a unique combination)
from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest#percentage-of-adults-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-by-single-year-of-age-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland
We must be batshit crazy to open them up the week after next when we have this huge spike tearings its way across the country. Outdoor events like gigs and festivals and sport yes. We've already opened the pubs up. Its that we're saying "no more restrictions from next Monday week and there will be no return to restrictions" alongside "don't wear a mask or worry about social distancing, use your common sense" that is truly stupid.
Even if the step was "we're mostly opening up, but FFS don't act like irresponsible prannocks. Covid can still make you really sick and give you a debilitating condition that may affect you long term so be careful" that would be ok. Not "I hate masks they are awful and I'm taking it off as soon as I can".
https://drivetribe.com/p/fancy-buying-a-620hp-v10-formula-KlYf9PXfRJWnkWVMuNrIqQ?iid=ExVF3m5VSKGsLpqJuLHVRQ&utm_source=organic&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=main
@BBCPolitics
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Kim Leadbeater, the newly-elected Labour MP for Batley and Spen, is sworn in as a member of Parliament
The issue is that Covid isn't likely to make you really sick or give you a debilitating condition post-vaccinations, so its time to get back to normal.
(Above numbers wrong as there are >£25 prizes - the big payouts mean that apart from the big winners everyone else gets a bit less than 1%, of course, so all the estimates above over-optimistic)
Edit: Ah, already said by Ishmael
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998393/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w26_v3.pdf
188,632 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday
🏴 62,672 1st doses / 85,748 2nd doses
🏴 11,639 / 11,980
🏴 1,199 / 6,808
NI 1,712 / 6,874
I am guessing that a fair number of under-18s now have been exposed.
On the other hand, premium bonds also come with a pretty nice upside "risk", which is something that few other zero or very low risk investments can boast.
As to Johnson saying "no return to any restrictions", that's just feelgood rhetoric. If for whatever reason we again find ourselves with the health service projected to collapse due to a rapidly spreading infectious virus, there'll be restrictions.
Shame Rochdale is so allergic to the concept.