On topic, it would be interesting to compare the leadership approval ratings now to before the last election.
Overall the leadership approval ratings now tend to show Boris have a better approval share than he did before the last election, not a worse one.
It's a long time since you've said Johnson in one of your posts. It seems to be always Boris now. Boris this, Boris that. Boris Boris Boris.
Disappointing to see.
Because its his name, just like Keir's name is Keir.
And to be perfectly frank you being childish over this makes it more appealling not less to refer to Keir and Boris by their names and not their surnames.
His name is Alex.
Boris is the name of his persona.
Yes and James was his name, Gordon was just his persona too I suppose?
This is just silly. Plenty of people go by their middle name as their name. Whatever name people want to go by, that's their name. Its not self-ID, its just respect.
It used to be de rigueur for Labour leaders to go by their middle names. Remember Jim Wilson and Len Callaghan? Maybe not. But I make that 3 out of the last 4 Labour PMs.
@Leon and a few others recently have been talking about how much food in England has improved over the years, which is true in restaurants and elsewhere across the country.
What's interesting is just how much its even improved in places like supermarkets. Not sure if its common elsewhere, but today went to ASDA and next to the takeaway pizza making section at the back they've now got a fresh sushi section. Supermarket sushi has never been the best, but we got the sushi tonight for dinner that you would have thought was from somewhere like Yo! Sushi - not ASDA. The prices were a lot more expensive to match too, but considering there was someone there making the sushi and it was all fresh and you could tell that, that seems fair enough to be honest.
I wonder if this is already common elsewhere, or is being rolled out in many places? Was first time I'd seen it. I wonder what's next too now. Definitely a notch up from a salad bar and a pizza bar alone at the supermarket.
Sneezing is now considered to be a symptom of Covid. Whenever I've taken a test it has triggered a bout of sneezing. Better take another test.... which makes me sneeze...etc.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
Because a headache must be just about one of the most common minor medical ailments there is, with "bit of a runny nose" not far behind (particularly in, hello, hayfever season).
I know it is the dream of the scientists that everyone in the country gets tested every other day regardless of how they're feeling, but it's getting silly. Particularly as - as already discussed - we're getting very close to the point where we don't care about case numbers at all anyway.
All I can say with reasonable confidence is that Labour voters (and activists) were highly motivated today. Which isn't really what I expected, and I think that it's partly Kim's personal popularity and partly a sod-off-Galloway/militants reaction.
As I said earlier in the campaign, most Muslims are mild-mannered people who don't want to be represented by loud-mouthed thugs brawling in the street. They might well feel that Labour isn't paying enough attention, and that in our anxiety to get rid of anti-semitism we've forgotten the genuine issues in Palestine. But that doesn't mean they like self-appointed agitators, and in the end they may have decided to vote against them.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
An unimpressive performance. This interview was an exercise in platitudes. I have never rated him as a scientist and I don't really understand why he was invited to SPI-M in the first place. I think some of the other modelling groups are much better.
(I was amused to see, on checking, that he has a fraction of the citations that I do, and he works in a field that tends to larger publication teams and higher citation counts. For comparison, he has about a twentieth of the citations than John Edmunds does.)
I hate this Government. Hate it. Because of the political decision to let Delta/Indian Variant seed here by failing to close the borders we are, instead of lifting restrictions, about to go backwards. I don’t think I can bear another lockdown. But in two, three weeks the NHS will not be able to cope with this
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
Because a headache must be just about one of the most common minor medical ailments there is, with "bit of a runny nose" not far behind (particularly in, hello, hayfever season).
Indeed. Which is precisely why a free, low-hassle LFT test is an excellent idea, to either reassure you that it's probably not Covid, or let you know it probably is.
The big losers among the Others are the Democratic Party of Moldova who polled 24% last time but are now polling 1% so a bit of a fall.
What do you do to go from 24% to 1% (and yet somehow still exist)? Mandatory puppy kicking policy?
They split following the crisis of late 2019. The Sandu (she who is now President) Government coalition comprised the Socialists and the Party of Action & Solidarity (PAS). The Democratic party were in opposition but when the coalition collapsed in late 2019, the Democratic Party leadership voted to join with the Socialists in forming a new coalition Government.
That split the party down the middle - of their 30 MPs, 15 backed the new Government and the other half left and formed a new party in opposition (Pro Moldova) which has sunk without trace.
Sandu won the Presidential election late last year and the Chicu Government collapsed the day before she was due to be inaugurated. She appointed Chiocoi as Acting PM but the political deadlock will be broken if (as seems likely) PAS wins big on Sunday.
Only 11 of the 30 MPs elected under the Democratic party banner in 2019 are still with the party and they will all lose their seats on Sunday.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
Eh? Testing reduces the need to sit at home unnecessarily.
On topic, it would be interesting to compare the leadership approval ratings now to before the last election.
Overall the leadership approval ratings now tend to show Boris have a better approval share than he did before the last election, not a worse one.
It's a long time since you've said Johnson in one of your posts. It seems to be always Boris now. Boris this, Boris that. Boris Boris Boris.
Disappointing to see.
Because its his name, just like Keir's name is Keir.
And to be perfectly frank you being childish over this makes it more appealling not less to refer to Keir and Boris by their names and not their surnames.
His name is Alex.
Boris is the name of his persona.
Yes and James was his name, Gordon was just his persona too I suppose?
This is just silly. Plenty of people go by their middle name as their name. Whatever name people want to go by, that's their name. Its not self-ID, its just respect.
It used to be de rigueur for Labour leaders to go by their middle names. Remember Jim Wilson and Len Callaghan? Maybe not. But I make that 3 out of the last 4 Labour PMs.
Boris is Boris but this is not quite the same as Messrs Wilson, Callaghan and Brown. With Boris there is uncertainty over whether he is using his middle name (which used to be very common btw) Boris, or if he is using a stage name, Boris, and a different name, Alex, elsewhere. Vic Reeves (Jim Moir) is a well-known example. If you listen to interviews with Bob Mortimer, he calls him Jim rather than Vic.
I call him Boris but what does Carrie call him? What did Dominic Cummings call him (apart from unfit to be PM)?
Betfair was referred a while ago and looking just now on the darker blue conservatives are on 1.39 labour on 3.50
Can someone explain how this translates as I do not have a clue
Life Pro Tip;
Take the reciprocal of the odds to convert into percentages
Eg 1/1.39 = 0.719
71.9%
1/3.5 = 0.286
28.6%
Thank you for explaining the percentages
Seems a high percentage on a conservative win
There seem to be at least 4 ways of expressing the perceived chances of something from a betting or prediction point of view: fractional, decimal, American and percentage.
The only one which makes a sort of universal immediate sense is the percentage way of expressing it because it needs no numerical translation.
Might it be good if we adopted it for expressing probabilities, chances and odds generally?
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
Eh? Testing reduces the need to sit at home unnecessarily.
Your response was "so what" to people getting false positives and sitting at home as a result.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
You are entirely fine to work, have a slight cough or sneezed once or twice, get a covid test, then if it’s positive, sit indoors alone for ten days in the middle of summer even though there is sod all wrong with you.
Why hasn't @stodge regaled us with news of the Moldova General Election this Sunday?
The latest poll (changes from last election):
Action & Solidarity Party: 51% (+24) Electoral Bloc of Communists & Socialists: 31% (-4.5) Electoral Bloc Renato Ursatii: 5% (+2) Party of Change: 5% (-3.5) Others: 8% (-18)
The big losers among the Others are the Democratic Party of Moldova who polled 24% last time but are now polling 1% so a bit of a fall.
The opposition Action & Solidarity Party looks set for a landslide win in the 101-seat Parliament. They are a centre-right pro-European party (we used to have one of those I think). The ruling Communist & Socialist bloc will lose some seats but will be the clear opposition and it may be only those two groups will have seats in the new Parliament but we'll see.
The current political crisis followed the clear election of Maia Sandu of Action & Solidarity to the Presidency last November. The pro-Russian Communist & Socialist Government quit a day before she was sworn in but they are able to block any Prime Ministerial appointment. Sandu went to the Constitutional Court, got Parliament dissolved and it looks very likely Moldova will shift away from Russia towards Europe and the West.
Will they be voting in the unrecognised brake away part in the east?
All I can say with reasonable confidence is that Labour voters (and activists) were highly motivated today. Which isn't really what I expected, and I think that it's partly Kim's personal popularity and partly a sod-off-Galloway/militants reaction.
As I said earlier in the campaign, most Muslims are mild-mannered people who don't want to be represented by loud-mouthed thugs brawling in the street. They might well feel that Labour isn't paying enough attention, and that in our anxiety to get rid of anti-semitism we've forgotten the genuine issues in Palestine. But that doesn't mean they like self-appointed agitators, and in the end they may have decided to vote against them.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
Eh? Testing reduces the need to sit at home unnecessarily.
An unimpressive performance. This interview was an exercise in platitudes. I have never rated him as a scientist and I don't really understand why he was invited to SPI-M in the first place. I think some of the other modelling groups are much better.
(I was amused to see, on checking, that he has a fraction of the citations that I do, and he works in a field that tends to larger publication teams and higher citation counts. For comparison, he has about a twentieth of the citations than John Edmunds does.)
--AS
Of course it appears they were massively off in the case numbers as well, however "concerning" he claims the current numbers are.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
It's his personal account - twitter have chosen to call it governmental - it's not the prime ministerial twitter account so your point is just bilge.
Twitter say it's not his personal account. At their page linked to from the words "United Kingdom government official", they write:
"How government accounts are defined
Our focus is on senior officials and entities that are the official voice of the nation state abroad, specifically accounts of key government officials, including foreign ministers, institutional entities, ambassadors, official spokespeople, and key diplomatic leaders. Where accounts are used solely for personal use and do not play a role as a geopolitical or official Government communication channel, we will not label the account."
That doesn't seem very definitive to me. There clearly is an official UK PM account which is not the same as his personal account. What that definition seems to say is not that when they label something it is not a personal account, but that if official communications appear to be issued on an account they label it accordingly.
So the issue would seem to be that it is a personal account, and twitter are not saying it is not, but that he issues a lot of official communications on it so it is de facto an official account. But that is their policy, not his.
In which case perhaps it is appropriate for him to make personal and partisan comments on that account, and he shouldn't be making official communications on it, so the complaints have it backwards.
Not quite.
I think it’s because Boris Johnson makes party political comments in a personal capacity on the thread (so his role is relevant even if they are not official government statements ). If he solely posted about horse racing or Formula 1 they wouldn’t label it because his role wouldn’t be relevant
I hate this Government. Hate it. Because of the political decision to let Delta/Indian Variant seed here by failing to close the borders we are, instead of lifting restrictions, about to go backwards. I don’t think I can bear another lockdown. But in two, three weeks the NHS will not be able to cope with this
Yes, yet another apocalyptic assessment goes bust. I like Doug and hope he returns!
Having now had to look at Boris' account and the various things on there, I noted one of the campaign videos. Maybe I don't watch enough such things, but it seemed weird that there was one where Boris is stood next to the candidate, talking him naturally, but the other chap doesn't say a word in the entire thing. Given much of the video is campaigning montage material, why not just have Boris to camera and voice over talking about how great the candidate is? I get when its pictures of the PM with a candidate, but it just seemed strange that it wasn't like 'I urge you to vote for our great candidate' 'Thank you Boris, I will do my bet for whatever the name of this constituency is'.
I once tried to shut Boris up when he was in full flow. It ain’t easy!
I know we are not politically aligned but I have great respect for you Nick and fully support all you do for animal welfare
You're very kind. And I'll gladly say that the Tories in Defra are proving excellent for animal welfare - on sentience, live exports and possibly cages, they're doing all the right things. Similarly, the Polish right-wing Agriculture Commissioner has delivered a proposal to end the use of cages on farms throughout the EU, and the European Parliament has backed it across party from left to moderate right, so they deserve credit too.
The Department of Trade and Liz Truss, on the other hand, are risking all the above (and the future of livestock farming in Britain) by opening up to low-welfare imports on a zero tariff. Whichever way one looks at it, it's really not very consistent.
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
Eh? Testing reduces the need to sit at home unnecessarily.
Not bothering to test reduces it too
True, but with considerable collateral damage.
This really isn't hard. The aim is to reduce the spread of a very nasty and highly contagious disease with the minimum of disruption and damage to normal life. Vaccines do most of the heavy lifting, but other low-impact measures are still a very good idea.
On topic, it would be interesting to compare the leadership approval ratings now to before the last election.
Overall the leadership approval ratings now tend to show Boris have a better approval share than he did before the last election, not a worse one.
It's a long time since you've said Johnson in one of your posts. It seems to be always Boris now. Boris this, Boris that. Boris Boris Boris.
Disappointing to see.
Because its his name, just like Keir's name is Keir.
And to be perfectly frank you being childish over this makes it more appealling not less to refer to Keir and Boris by their names and not their surnames.
His name is Alex.
Boris is the name of his persona.
That's how it started, perhaps, but if Boris was called Boris at school, surely that makes it his name, even if his parents wished differently?
Is it not getting a bit silly now? You have a runny nose - get a covid test? You have a headache - get a covid test?
Seems very sensible, with LFT kits widely available for free. What's the problem?
You might get a false positive. And too many people don't have the common sense to take a second test to check.
So what? This is about cutting risk and reducing spread, not achieving perfection.
The economic cost of having huge numbers of people sat at home when there is no need to be. Whether because they are causing problems for the businesses that employ them (and potentially triggering knock on isolations) or because they are potential customers not out spending money.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
Eh? Testing reduces the need to sit at home unnecessarily.
Not bothering to test reduces it too
True, but with considerable collateral damage.
This really isn't hard. The aim is to reduce the spread of a very nasty and highly contagious disease with the minimum of disruption and damage to normal life. Vaccines do most of the heavy lifting, but other low-impact measures are still a very good idea.
I think there is large disagreement about how much isolation of infected people and large numbers of their close contacts are "low-impact measures". Schools being exhibit A. One can debate the extent to which they are nevertheless necessary and/or net beneficial - but low-impact?
A senior Labour source says this week has been “quite a contrast” for the party’s campaign in Batley. He is now “quietly confident” of a Labour victory.
An unimpressive performance. This interview was an exercise in platitudes. I have never rated him as a scientist and I don't really understand why he was invited to SPI-M in the first place. I think some of the other modelling groups are much better.
(I was amused to see, on checking, that he has a fraction of the citations that I do, and he works in a field that tends to larger publication teams and higher citation counts. For comparison, he has about a twentieth of the citations than John Edmunds does.)
Comments
I know it is the dream of the scientists that everyone in the country gets tested every other day regardless of how they're feeling, but it's getting silly. Particularly as - as already discussed - we're getting very close to the point where we don't care about case numbers at all anyway.
As I said earlier in the campaign, most Muslims are mild-mannered people who don't want to be represented by loud-mouthed thugs brawling in the street. They might well feel that Labour isn't paying enough attention, and that in our anxiety to get rid of anti-semitism we've forgotten the genuine issues in Palestine. But that doesn't mean they like self-appointed agitators, and in the end they may have decided to vote against them.
It's the same approach that leads to the scientists saying that we should always take an ultra precautionary approach to lifting restrictions because, well, what are the downsides?
(I was amused to see, on checking, that he has a fraction of the citations that I do, and he works in a field that tends to larger publication teams and higher citation counts. For comparison, he has about a twentieth of the citations than John Edmunds does.)
--AS
He will at least be revealed that his NHS to collapse by the end of June fears were unfounded:
Haven't heard that mentioned on here since last summer/autumn.
Sadly all those false positives led to so many hospitalisations and deaths.
That split the party down the middle - of their 30 MPs, 15 backed the new Government and the other half left and formed a new party in opposition (Pro Moldova) which has sunk without trace.
Sandu won the Presidential election late last year and the Chicu Government collapsed the day before she was due to be inaugurated. She appointed Chiocoi as Acting PM but the political deadlock will be broken if (as seems likely) PAS wins big on Sunday.
Only 11 of the 30 MPs elected under the Democratic party banner in 2019 are still with the party and they will all lose their seats on Sunday.
I call him Boris but what does Carrie call him? What did Dominic Cummings call him (apart from unfit to be PM)?
The only one which makes a sort of universal immediate sense is the percentage way of expressing it because it needs no numerical translation.
Might it be good if we adopted it for expressing probabilities, chances and odds generally?
NEW THREAD
Silly you say? Surely not!
... maybe there's hope for us all yet.
I think it’s because Boris Johnson makes party political comments in a personal capacity on the thread (so his role is relevant even if they are not official government statements ). If he solely posted about horse racing or Formula 1 they wouldn’t label it because his role wouldn’t be relevant
This really isn't hard. The aim is to reduce the spread of a very nasty and highly contagious disease with the minimum of disruption and damage to normal life. Vaccines do most of the heavy lifting, but other low-impact measures are still a very good idea.