This is the deal Israel failed to get past the Palestinians. Israel has a lot of Pfizer that is due to expire by the end of the month, so wants to swap it for longer-dated Pfizer. The deal is only a good one for us if we can rustle up sufficient willing arms in the next couple of weeks.
If the official gap is brought down to 3 weeks, millions of arms are conjured up overnight.
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
Enoch Soames. A character who had so little effect in the story "Enoch Soames" by Max Beerbohm, that when he appears 100 years in the future, the only reference to himself in the British Library is as a fictional character in the story "Enoch Soames" by his friend Max Beerbohm....
Thanks for that reference. I hadn't come across Enoch Soames before, so might read the book. I have met Nicholas Soames, who, of course, far from dull or unmemorable.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
Of those surveyed, 35% of voters think Keir Starmer should quit as Labour leader, compared to 28% who think he should stay on.
The survey, conducted by Savanta for Left Foot Forward consisted of 2,191 voters.
Voters of all age groups, except those aged between 25-34, say Starmer should go if Labour were to lose the by-election, though 37% answered ‘Don’t Know’. The party has held the seat for nearly a quarter of a century.
Calls for Starmer to go were highest in the North-East of the country, with 47% saying the Labour leader should resign if he loses the by-election today.
Support for Starmer to remain however, was highest in the North-West, with 34% of those asked saying he should stay on as leader even if he loses the crucial by-election.
Among those who voted Labour in 2019, 33% believe Starmer should resign if he loses compared to 42% who think he should stay. Of those who had voted Conservative, 46% believe Starmer should quit.
It comes as talk of a leadership challenge grows as voters in Batley and Spen go to the polls.
You seem to be very keen to see the back of Starmer. Any favourites for PM in waiting? RLB, Richard Burgon, and don't forget if the Conservatives lose their lustre that is the sort of moron we could be lumbered with...but of course Johnson was looking gorgeous in Sunderland today.
Stamrer slaughtered BoJo at PMQs yesterday.
He did. Even BJO was impressed.
PB Tories seem to be as desperate to see the back of Starmer as do Corbynistas. I guess both PB Tories and Corbynistas have a similar aim, namely to return Conservative Prime Minister after Conservative Prime Minister
That aim would stand an even greater chance with Angela Raynor as LoTO
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
I think Boris most resembles the monkey White King from Georgi Markov's "The Right Honourable Chimpanzee". I'm thinking of the ability to get by in the Commons with historical quotations from previous Prime Ministers and the odd repeated slogan. On a serious note it's one of the funniest political novels I've ever read.
Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.
I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).
The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.
The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.
So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.
The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.
That's not quite true.
Greece GDP per capita 2001 - $12,500 2019 - $19,500
Italy 2001 - $20,400 2019 - $33,200
Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.
It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here
Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019
How long before the daily cases overtakes the daily first doses?
A couple of weeks maybe?
Quite possibly sooner than that. First doses are now at 85.2% of adults, and climbing at around 0.4% per day. The wall of refusers will be hit at somewhere around 90%. At that rate the flow of first doses will probably have slowed to a trickle a few days before July 15th.
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
Of those surveyed, 35% of voters think Keir Starmer should quit as Labour leader, compared to 28% who think he should stay on.
The survey, conducted by Savanta for Left Foot Forward consisted of 2,191 voters.
Voters of all age groups, except those aged between 25-34, say Starmer should go if Labour were to lose the by-election, though 37% answered ‘Don’t Know’. The party has held the seat for nearly a quarter of a century.
Calls for Starmer to go were highest in the North-East of the country, with 47% saying the Labour leader should resign if he loses the by-election today.
Support for Starmer to remain however, was highest in the North-West, with 34% of those asked saying he should stay on as leader even if he loses the crucial by-election.
Among those who voted Labour in 2019, 33% believe Starmer should resign if he loses compared to 42% who think he should stay. Of those who had voted Conservative, 46% believe Starmer should quit.
It comes as talk of a leadership challenge grows as voters in Batley and Spen go to the polls.
You seem to be very keen to see the back of Starmer. Any favourites for PM in waiting? RLB, Richard Burgon, and don't forget if the Conservatives lose their lustre that is the sort of moron we could be lumbered with...but of course Johnson was looking gorgeous in Sunderland today.
Stamrer slaughtered BoJo at PMQs yesterday.
He did. Even BJO was impressed.
PB Tories seem to be as desperate to see the back of Starmer as do Corbynistas. I guess both PB Tories and Corbynistas have a similar aim, namely to return Conservative Prime Minister after Conservative Prime Minister
That aim would stand an even greater chance with Angela Raynor as LoTO
Indeed, but she does have a quality set of ear buds.
Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.
I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).
The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.
The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.
So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.
The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.
That's not quite true.
Greece GDP per capita 2001 - $12,500 2019 - $19,500
Italy 2001 - $20,400 2019 - $33,200
Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.
It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here
Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
Enoch Soames. A character who had so little effect in the story "Enoch Soames" by Max Beerbohm, that when he appears 100 years in the future, the only reference to himself in the British Library is as a fictional character in the story "Enoch Soames" by his friend Max Beerbohm....
Thanks for that reference. I hadn't come across Enoch Soames before, so might read the book. I have met Nicholas Soames, who, of course, far from dull or unmemorable.
It's short story - in the collection "Seven Men and Two Others"
A savage wit in a very quiet way, was M. Beerbohm...
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
The result of B&S should tell us a little more than C&A as it should slightly confirm or disconfirm a wider and deeper trend which is actually found in polling and real results.
Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.
I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).
The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.
The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.
So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.
The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.
That's not quite true.
Greece GDP per capita 2001 - $12,500 2019 - $19,500
Italy 2001 - $20,400 2019 - $33,200
Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.
It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here
Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019
2001 - $37053 2019 - $36034 2020 - $32993 (but we know 2020 is bad for other reasons).
Fair enough.
There are many different ways to cut the cake, and I went to the first ones that Google searched for. Which, as you say, may have been misleading.
One of the more interesting pieces of analysis I've seen is "GDP per person of working age".
Now that in somewhere like Italy is going to make the graph above even worse.
But the thing here is that inflation even at low levels can hide a multitude of issues if the time frame is long enough and that seems especially true when we are talking about the poorer Southern Europe currencies locked into a Germany dominated currency.
Once again proving David Cameron (pbuh) was right about Twitter.
A person who used anonymous Twitter accounts to make defamatory remarks about Stephen Nolan has apologised and agreed to pay a six-figure damages sum.
The BBC radio and TV presenter traced the identity of the person who was behind an online campaign against him.
In a statement issued by the person's lawyer, they admitted that the claims they made were "totally unsubstantiated and without foundation".
Mr Nolan said: "This should be a warning to all trolls."
The individual admitted running a campaign which "involved the systematic dissemination of false and defamatory allegations" against Mr Nolan.
They had been behind the Pastor Jimberoo and Pastor Jimberoo's Ghost accounts on Twitter and had also created an online petition against the presenter.
The aim of the petition - based "entirely on false and defamatory allegations" - was to undermine and damage Mr Nolan's professional reputation, they said.
"I unreservedly apologise to Mr Nolan for any distress caused and confirm that the aforesaid Twitter accounts have since been deleted," they added.
The individual's statement was issued by their Belfast-based lawyer Kevin Winter.
Mr Nolan, who presents shows on BBC Radio Ulster and BBC Radio 5 Live, said the individual had been running a "malicious campaign designed to undermine me and hinder my journalism".
"I am deeply grateful to the BBC, who will always judge me fairly on its editorial standards rather than the lies this individual attempted to propagate," he said.
The broadcaster said he would no longer tolerate the "vile abuse" aimed at him as well as other journalists, politicians, public figures and private citizens.
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Potentially there will be a Maidenhead by-election if the rumour that Theresa May will be appointed in NATO prove correct. The starting position is very like C&A:
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Not so. Latest YouGov has Johnson with negative favourability across the nation including the South
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Potentially there will be a Maidenhead by-election if the rumour that Theresa May will be appointed in NATO prove correct. The starting position is very like C&A:
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Potentially there will be a Maidenhead by-election if the rumour that Theresa May will be appointed in NATO prove correct. The starting position is very like C&A:
Big final Labour push on the national phone banks at the moment to get the last of the vote out. Everyone's commented on the Tory stealth campaign, which for all I know may be working well, but it's worth saying now that there's been a well-organised, determined Labour push from the start which the "unhappy unnamed campaigners" quoted by journalists have rather helpfully obscured.
Whether it will be enough I somewhat doubt but morale seems surprisingly good. We'll know in, uh, 12 hours or so.
Decoded....Labour easy win.
You're too cynical! Full disclosure: I have £200 at 1-4 on Labour beating Galloway. I have £0 on winning outright.
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Potentially there will be a Maidenhead by-election if the rumour that Theresa May will be appointed in NATO prove correct. The starting position is very like C&A:
Big final Labour push on the national phone banks at the moment to get the last of the vote out. Everyone's commented on the Tory stealth campaign, which for all I know may be working well, but it's worth saying now that there's been a well-organised, determined Labour push from the start which the "unhappy unnamed campaigners" quoted by journalists have rather helpfully obscured.
Whether it will be enough I somewhat doubt but morale seems surprisingly good. We'll know in, uh, 12 hours or so.
Decoded....Labour easy win.
You're too cynical! Full disclosure: I have £200 at 1-4 on Labour beating Galloway. I have £0 on winning outright.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
Indeed. And there are many Trumpers who would opine that 'its about freakin' time....'
A lawsuit has been filed against Evanston School District in Chicago.
Students as young as kindergarten were told to participate in "privilege walks" based on their skin color & taught that color-blindness is racist. The school website proclaimed white children are not "racial innocents.”
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
Enoch Soames. A character who had so little effect in the story "Enoch Soames" by Max Beerbohm, that when he appears 100 years in the future, the only reference to himself in the British Library is as a fictional character in the story "Enoch Soames" by his friend Max Beerbohm....
Enoch Soames sounds like he should be a fat racist.
Boris has found a centre ground that gives him red wall seats at the cost of a few former Tory seats that turn Lib Dem / Labour.
I suspect your typical Tory won't care unless they are the representative of one of those no longer safe seats (see for instance Steve Baker in High Wycombe).
The fundamental problem is that it's difficult to ride two horses at the same time. There's only so much money to go around, and while few things are zero sum, it's still the case that some Southern taxpayers will feel cross that "their" money is being spent up North.
The same arguments rage in Germany, where the Eastern Lander have progressed economically (and are now wealthier than most regions in the UK), but the burden for regeneration has fallen on the West.
So, the former DDR is now wealthier than most of the UK. According to Brexiteers the EU is a basket case and all things Yookay are an unmitigated triumph.
The former DDR is, vast parts of other parts of europe. While the DDR has done wonders economically, Italy and Greece have gone backwards since 2001.
That's not quite true.
Greece GDP per capita 2001 - $12,500 2019 - $19,500
Italy 2001 - $20,400 2019 - $33,200
Economically illiterate comparison as those are nominal numbers.
It get's interesting when you look at the tricks being pulled here
Firstly exchange rates $1=0.90€ in 2001, $1=1.12€ in 2019
2001 - $37053 2019 - $36034 2020 - $32993 (but we know 2020 is bad for other reasons).
Fair enough.
There are many different ways to cut the cake, and I went to the first ones that Google searched for. Which, as you say, may have been misleading.
One of the more interesting pieces of analysis I've seen is "GDP per person of working age".
Now that in somewhere like Italy is going to make the graph above even worse.
But the thing here is that inflation even at low levels can hide a multitude of issues if the time frame is long enough and that seems especially true when we are talking about the poorer Southern Europe currencies locked into a Germany dominated currency.
Finally to add
Yep it's a 10% drop in GDP per person employed (constant 2017 PPP $) between 2001 and 2019 for Italy.
In contrast it's a 10% increase in Germany and the same in the UK.
What it also shows is how unproductive we are in the UK relative to even Italy and that since 2006 we have used cheap labour as a cheap substitute for productivity improvements.
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Not so. Latest YouGov has Johnson with negative favourability across the nation including the South
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
I think Boris most resembles the monkey White King from Georgi Markov's "The Right Honourable Chimpanzee". I'm thinking of the ability to get by in the Commons with historical quotations from previous Prime Ministers and the odd repeated slogan. On a serious note it's one of the funniest political novels I've ever read.
Yes, I think Boris is a character from fiction.
But in the books with pictures for very, very young children.
---
Boris is Prime Minister. He has a very busy day.
This morning, Boris is at the big car factory. He gets to drive the big car and give us all the thumbs up.
Now Boris is using his big drill to build back better.
It's back to London for Boris. It's time for Prime Minister's questions.
"Bump, thump, bump", went Boris' heart with excitement. "Bump, thump, bump".
"Crikey", thought Boris, as a swotty little man asked him a hard question.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
Indeed. And there are many Trumpers who would opine that 'its about freakin' time....'
The Roberts Court had been dismantling the VRA for years now. Shelby County is almost a decade ago now and will go down as a top ten worst SCOTUS decision.
Many Trumpers would be fucking idiots if they didn't know this.
On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
Fingers crossed. I reckon we will hold this. But on the basis of no real information.
I did find it slightly disconcerting that 2k a day doubled jabbed people are catching COVID. I think it is wise to take some personal responsibility and remain a little cautious.
I think at the moment the country, and its leaders, are stuck in a lost middle. We're clearly not doing enough to stop the spread of Delta Covid. Equally clearly, we don't really need to, because we have vaccinated enough.
Yet we're asking loads of people to take tests, to isolate, to wear masks, to not dance at weddings, in a pretend attempt to control the spread which we're not really seriously trying to control.
Personally, I will be cautious until two weeks after my second dose, but as a society is the hassle, and the legal restrictions on trade, really worth it? If it was worth it, then I think it would be worth reimposing some restrictions to actually reverse the increase in cases.
The muddled middle doesn't make sense to me in this case.
And, in fact, nobody is stopping dancing at weddings. The rules list is nothing more than covid theatre.
A plurality of voters believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour Party leader if he loses the Batley and Spen by-election which is taking place today, exclusive polling for Left Foot Forward can reveal.
[snip]
Time to recall Nabavi's Rule of Resignation Polling: Any opinion poll which asks if politician X should resign will always produce a plurality in favour of X resigning - even if X is a made-up name.
Are you saying Keir Starmer is a fictional character?
Which one?
Charles Pooter in The Diary of a Nobody
Perhaps not, Pooter is a bit too lively
I think Boris most resembles the monkey White King from Georgi Markov's "The Right Honourable Chimpanzee". I'm thinking of the ability to get by in the Commons with historical quotations from previous Prime Ministers and the odd repeated slogan. On a serious note it's one of the funniest political novels I've ever read.
Yes, I think Boris is a character from fiction.
But in the books with pictures for very, very young children.
---
Boris is Prime Minister. He has a very busy day.
This morning, Boris is at the big car factory. He gets to drive the big car and give us all the thumbs up.
Now Boris is using his big drill to build back better.
It's back to London for Boris. It's time for Prime Minister's questions.
"Bump, thump, bump", went Boris' heart with excitement. "Bump, thump, bump".
"Crikey", thought Boris, as a swotty little man asked him a hard question.
...Boris didn't know what the funny looking man meant, so he made a really funny joke and all his friends laughed. Some nasty boys and girls started pointing their fat red fingers at Boris, but he didn't cry, he was very brave.
On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
It's that more data came in showing the disconnect between cases and hospitalisation and cases and deaths. Even as Delta took off...
It's one thing to have the theoretical numbers - vaccines do X, Y and Z
When you have the hard numbers of cases not converting in hospitalisations, such as this -
On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
I would expect case numbers to drop when the school holidays start. Getting a child to take a covid test when a positive means missing school is one thing; taking a test when a positive means being "grounded" is another.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"
Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
It's good that the days of 25% turnouts at by-elections seems to be over.
As it's a Thursday, the covid numbers are always a little depressing. On their own, the case numbers look horrendous but it seems probable the virus is primarily (but not exclusively) working its way through the unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated.
The irony (as I see it) is many of those still being cautious don't need to be (especially if thy have been doubly vaccinated) while some of those who aren't cautious perhaps should be (unless they have already had the virus of course).
I presume there is plenty of work going on measuring the continuing efficacy of vaccination and it will be interesting to see how far down the population (medical conditions notwithstanding) any booster rollout goes.
An assertion by LD activists turned into a fact? Is there any independent evidence on this?
DDR vs UK Regions
Where is this claim from? I heard an interesting claim about varied wealth amongst regions in countries, but that was in the Commons' Environment Committee about the G7.
What I would love to see is numbers in the UK excluding unearned increase in property values.
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
It's good that the days of 25% turnouts at by-elections seems to be over.
Huge turnout on the phone bank! No info on overall turnout...
I like this sort of graph a lot- you can see the scatter point-to-point, but also the much slower tectonic moves month-to-month.
It is nice but, as ever, there are yet more steps down the rabbit hole of analysis you could take.
One of the main problems with it is that it gives equal weighting to each individual poll, so if one polling company release many more polls than the others or, worse, the proportion of polls that are conducted by particular companies changes over time, then that will influence the trend line. But at the moment we seem to have a decent mix of several polling companies, with none particularly dominating, so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"
Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.
That’s a fair analysis. However another fair analysis is the “buy four more weeks of vax” - it’s quite possible to argue that given that there was a whole bunch of key data released not 48 hours after the delay was confirmed.
Boris Johnson attracts a lot of people who might not otherwise have voted Conservative - that's the "gift" Margaret Thatcher had and Tony Blair had the other way.
It's fair to say though he does repel others who might otherwise vote Conservative though the number of the former clearly outweigh the latter at this time. I certainly remember canvassing in 1989-90 and finding a strong dislike for "That Bloody Woman" even in staunch Conservative areas. Such a wound can easily be cauterised if you have the right replacement and if there's no confidence in the "Welsh Windbag" it doesn't much matter.
I do think it will be the day-to-day tedium of Government which will undermine Johnson, not the crises which in truth most leaders enjoy. It will be the intractable issues which never seem to move nearer resolution which will damage him, not the short-term stuff.
There will come a point when Johnson becomes a liability to the Conservative Party and that will be the first stage of his removal - the second will be an alternative who restores the Party's fortunes (that may be Rishi Sunak, it may not). Once those factors are in place (and only then) could we see a move to change leader.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
Indeed. And there are many Trumpers who would opine that 'its about freakin' time....'
I’m sure there are. But a Republican majority just legislated from the bench in a manner utterly unsupported by the constitution.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
If anyone's interested, you can get 5-1 on Conservative vote share of 35-39.9% and 20-1 on Conservative vote share of under 35% with Ladbrokes - both strike me as value in a by election with 16 candidates.
The big issue in the C&A byelection was the tradition of the LDs doing well, and completely out of line with GE polling, at certain sorts of byelection.
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
Not so. Latest YouGov has Johnson with negative favourability across the nation including the South
.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"
Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.
I think I could buy that if they'd only just started to be upbeat in the last day or two, but it was literally only a handful of days after the announcement. Given the data they must have already had from the vaccination programme an extra two or three days doesn't feel like it ought to have had the significance it appears to have had.
Anyway, it is what it is and hopefully we've moved past a big psychological hurdle in this country and can begin to knock over all the remaining dominoes quite quickly.
As it's a Thursday, the covid numbers are always a little depressing. On their own, the case numbers look horrendous but it seems probable the virus is primarily (but not exclusively) working its way through the unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated.
The irony (as I see it) is many of those still being cautious don't need to be (especially if thy have been doubly vaccinated) while some of those who aren't cautious perhaps should be (unless they have already had the virus of course).
I presume there is plenty of work going on measuring the continuing efficacy of vaccination and it will be interesting to see how far down the population (medical conditions notwithstanding) any booster rollout goes.
The trouble is, people do have to be cautious whileever the ten-day rule applies. You have to dodge test and trace or ruin your holiday - even if that holiday is in the UK. Until 19 July, vax status is irrelevant.
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
Fingers crossed. I reckon we will hold this. But on the basis of no real information.
Owen Jones, Novarra and that crowd will be upset if you do.......
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
.On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
If think the extra handful of days was important. At the point where the extension was announced hospital numbers were tracking case rises quite closely, not at the same ratio as autumn but very much a mechanical "case tick up x, hospitalisation tick up y"
Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.
I think I could buy that if they'd only just started to be upbeat in the last day or two, but it was literally only a handful of days after the announcement. Given the data they must have already had from the vaccination programme an extra two or three days doesn't feel like it ought to have had the significance it appears to have had.
Anyway, it is what it is and hopefully we've moved past a big psychological hurdle in this country and can begin to knock over all the remaining dominoes quite quickly.
Yes, that’s the fly in the ointment of Alistair’s theory. Still, I think people are generally coming to terms with covid now. There are exceptions - we see some on PB - but most people want to move on i think as the vaccines clearly work.
An assertion by LD activists turned into a fact? Is there any independent evidence on this?
DDR vs UK Regions
Where is this claim from? I heard an interesting claim about varied wealth amongst regions in countries, but that was in the Commons' Environment Committee about the G7.
What I would love to see is numbers in the UK excluding unearned increase in property values.
This is fun.
You can compare regions for GDP (or better, GVA) up to 2015.
All things being equal, U.K. has declined against relatively against its peers since 2015 for reasons not worth rehearsing.
Nissan confirm they are to build a 1 billion pound car battery factory in Sunderland
Absolutely coincidental that this announced on by Election Day
I hadn't thought about that but if so good politics
The BBC also says that 'The government is contributing to the cost of the expansion, but a precise figure has not been disclosed.'
Ion other words, a massive handout. Some might call it a bribe.
I am sorry but investing in the future green economy is essential and is actively promoted by all governments
All governments recently signed a “level playing field” treaty, but one of the signatories was crossing their fingers behind their back. Guess which one.
The EU are over and the UK will decide on investments and jobs
Investment decisions will surely be based on access to markets into which to sell, so the EU is not over. It's just that the relationship and dependency is different.
Big G’s statement that “the EU is over” neatly illustrates why the Conservative Party is not fit for purpose. Even moderates like Big G have now embraced the culture war. The past is alterable. The past never has been altered. Yookania is at war with Redpassportland. Yookania has always been at war with Redpassportland.
I don’t think that’s quite what Big G meant, rather than the EU is over as a key influence on domestic policy.
But your general point is correct.
Nevertheless, the Brexity culture warriors know their cause is both potent and fragile; hence the government’s bung to the totemic Nissan.
In what way is Brexit “fragile”? I’ve lost count of the number of formerly strident Remainers who have reconciled themselves to the new status quo, not least the entire Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party.
Brexit is now firmly embedded in BritNat mythology. England is stuck with it for the foreseeable. The other three have an escape route, although the Welsh path to victory looks long.
In what way is a Japanese car company “totemic”? Is it just because they’re not European?
To be fair I think Nissan is totemic of the Renaissance of car manufacturing in the UK over the last 30+ years
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 58m Tory campaign source on the mood in Batley: "Solid in parts, mixed in others and quite a bit of apathy. Too early to tell, but could be tight."
"Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 📘https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1410517934108196866 Interesting new study in UK & Japan. Increasing immigration stokes anti-immigration views not among right-wing ppl (who are already negative) but among ppl with left-wing economic views. Immigration pushes left-leaners to become more right-wing #RedWall"
Finished work for today and in the phonebank. Huge turnout - those who've been on it all afternoon say the Labour vote is coming out very well - though who knows what the other parties are finding! BUT subjectively one tends to think it's going wonderfully on polling day since you're only calling people who said they would vote Labour.
Fingers crossed. I reckon we will hold this. But on the basis of no real information.
Owen Jones, Novarra and that crowd will be upset if you do.......
Nah, they'll just decide rather than Starmer losing meaning he should resign, a small victory means he should resign.
Who are they going to ask for ideas when they can't get it back up?
I recall an article about some of the high flyers at Google having to Google basic syntax. Makes me feel better when resorting to Stack Overflow again, anyway...
Germany’s vaccine committee recommended that everyone who received an AstraZeneca first dose switch to Pfizer or Moderna jabs for better protection against Covid. Studies show that the immune response is “clearly superior” when an AstraZeneca shot is combined with a second mRNA vaccine, compared with double AstraZeneca jabs, said the German public health vaccine committee.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
A lawsuit has been filed against Evanston School District in Chicago.
Students as young as kindergarten were told to participate in "privilege walks" based on their skin color & taught that color-blindness is racist. The school website proclaimed white children are not "racial innocents.”
On the Scottish case numbers, slightly difficult to reconcile previous SG statements the other day that we might already be past the peak with the latest numbers, but, meh. What's really giving me hope here is that the SG for the first time in a long time don't seem to be shitting the bed and threatening lockdowns, and indeed still talking about removal of restrictions to the announced timetable.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
They thought that the link between cases and hospitalisations hadn’t been broken but they were a couple of weeks short on data
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
You just turn off the tracing option on the NHS app. It’s that simple. A single toggle
Comments
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
2001 - $37053
2019 - $36034
2020 - $32993 (but we know 2020 is bad for other reasons).
Rachel Wearmouth
@REWearmouth
·
31m
Kirklees Council has said to expect a result around 5am.
The public think the govt are crap, but Labour would be crapper
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1410558640914939904?s=21
There are many different ways to cut the cake, and I went to the first ones that Google searched for. Which, as you say, may have been misleading.
One of the more interesting pieces of analysis I've seen is "GDP per person of working age".
A savage wit in a very quiet way, was M. Beerbohm...
Look at GE polling for the south outside London and it is impossible to conclude that Boris is the big factor. The Tories lead by a margin.
Until and unless there is lots more evidence, C&A says nothing about the future.
The result of B&S should tell us a little more than C&A as it should slightly confirm or disconfirm a wider and deeper trend which is actually found in polling and real results.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1410632601233133570?s=21
But the thing here is that inflation even at low levels can hide a multitude of issues if the time frame is long enough and that seems especially true when we are talking about the poorer Southern Europe currencies locked into a Germany dominated currency.
A person who used anonymous Twitter accounts to make defamatory remarks about Stephen Nolan has apologised and agreed to pay a six-figure damages sum.
The BBC radio and TV presenter traced the identity of the person who was behind an online campaign against him.
In a statement issued by the person's lawyer, they admitted that the claims they made were "totally unsubstantiated and without foundation".
Mr Nolan said: "This should be a warning to all trolls."
The individual admitted running a campaign which "involved the systematic dissemination of false and defamatory allegations" against Mr Nolan.
They had been behind the Pastor Jimberoo and Pastor Jimberoo's Ghost accounts on Twitter and had also created an online petition against the presenter.
The aim of the petition - based "entirely on false and defamatory allegations" - was to undermine and damage Mr Nolan's professional reputation, they said.
"I unreservedly apologise to Mr Nolan for any distress caused and confirm that the aforesaid Twitter accounts have since been deleted," they added.
The individual's statement was issued by their Belfast-based lawyer Kevin Winter.
Mr Nolan, who presents shows on BBC Radio Ulster and BBC Radio 5 Live, said the individual had been running a "malicious campaign designed to undermine me and hinder my journalism".
"I am deeply grateful to the BBC, who will always judge me fairly on its editorial standards rather than the lies this individual attempted to propagate," he said.
The broadcaster said he would no longer tolerate the "vile abuse" aimed at him as well as other journalists, politicians, public figures and private citizens.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57684497
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000803
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8xnebvh9jp/TheTimes_VI_Track_210624_FULL_W.pdf
I mean the Lib Dems are pro HS2 aren't they?
What could possibly go wrong?
Mrs May: Nothing has changed.
Students as young as kindergarten were told to participate in "privilege walks" based on their skin color & taught that color-blindness is racist. The school website proclaimed white children are not "racial innocents.”
https://twitter.com/fairforall_org/status/1410326198677217280
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I like this sort of graph a lot- you can see the scatter point-to-point, but also the much slower tectonic moves month-to-month.
Yep it's a 10% drop in GDP per person employed (constant 2017 PPP $) between 2001 and 2019 for Italy.
In contrast it's a 10% increase in Germany and the same in the UK.
What it also shows is how unproductive we are in the UK relative to even Italy and that since 2006 we have used cheap labour as a cheap substitute for productivity improvements.
Nice to see the LDs edge up slightly here though (and in recent polls).
Plenty of tories sat on their hands in C&A. If they do the same in B&S, Johnson has a problem.
Chris Whitty: +37
Sir Patrick Vallance: +24
Rishi Sunak: +6
Sajid Javid: -13
Boris Johnson: -27
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1410628991359369216
But in the books with pictures for very, very young children.
---
Boris is Prime Minister. He has a very busy day.
This morning, Boris is at the big car factory. He gets to drive the big car and give us all the thumbs up.
Now Boris is using his big drill to build back better.
It's back to London for Boris. It's time for Prime Minister's questions.
"Bump, thump, bump", went Boris' heart with excitement. "Bump, thump, bump".
"Crikey", thought Boris, as a swotty little man asked him a hard question.
Many Trumpers would be fucking idiots if they didn't know this.
What's slightly weird to me is quite how quickly both the Scottish and UK governments seem to have decided that case numbers are now pretty much ignorable. They're not wrong, it's just the speed with which they have U-turned on it. In the days running up to the announcement of delay to "Freedom Day" all was woe, glum, downbeat. Noises that sounded very much like we'd be stuck in restriction limbo till next year.
But pretty much immediately after that announcement it was like a lightswitch had been flicked, it's been mega upbeat all the way ever since. But it's hard to believe that the extra handful of days of data was enough to make a significant change to their thinking. It's almost as if something else changed. Either that or they deliberately put on an act about the numbers in order to buy themselves 4 more weeks of vaccination, without saying that that's what they were doing.
It's a bit curious to me.
It's one thing to have the theoretical numbers - vaccines do X, Y and Z
When you have the hard numbers of cases not converting in hospitalisations, such as this -
it's another
Getting a child to take a covid test when a positive means missing school is one thing;
taking a test when a positive means being "grounded" is another.
Starting almost immediatly after the announcement hospital number rises became far more shallow, lengthening the ratio between cases and hospitalisations.
As it's a Thursday, the covid numbers are always a little depressing. On their own, the case numbers look horrendous but it seems probable the virus is primarily (but not exclusively) working its way through the unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated.
The irony (as I see it) is many of those still being cautious don't need to be (especially if thy have been doubly vaccinated) while some of those who aren't cautious perhaps should be (unless they have already had the virus of course).
I presume there is plenty of work going on measuring the continuing efficacy of vaccination and it will be interesting to see how far down the population (medical conditions notwithstanding) any booster rollout goes.
An assertion by LD activists turned into a fact? Is there any independent evidence on this?
DDR vs UK Regions
Where is this claim from?
I heard an interesting claim about varied wealth amongst regions in countries, but that was in the Commons' Environment Committee about the G7.
What I would love to see is numbers in the UK excluding unearned increase in property values.
One of the main problems with it is that it gives equal weighting to each individual poll, so if one polling company release many more polls than the others or, worse, the proportion of polls that are conducted by particular companies changes over time, then that will influence the trend line. But at the moment we seem to have a decent mix of several polling companies, with none particularly dominating, so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
We’re all for a rebalancing – but Parliamentary government must mean Parliament in full, not just the executive
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/07/bucklands-stealth-raid-on-judicial-power-gathers-pace.html
Boris Johnson attracts a lot of people who might not otherwise have voted Conservative - that's the "gift" Margaret Thatcher had and Tony Blair had the other way.
It's fair to say though he does repel others who might otherwise vote Conservative though the number of the former clearly outweigh the latter at this time. I certainly remember canvassing in 1989-90 and finding a strong dislike for "That Bloody Woman" even in staunch Conservative areas. Such a wound can easily be cauterised if you have the right replacement and if there's no confidence in the "Welsh Windbag" it doesn't much matter.
I do think it will be the day-to-day tedium of Government which will undermine Johnson, not the crises which in truth most leaders enjoy. It will be the intractable issues which never seem to move nearer resolution which will damage him, not the short-term stuff.
There will come a point when Johnson becomes a liability to the Conservative Party and that will be the first stage of his removal - the second will be an alternative who restores the Party's fortunes (that may be Rishi Sunak, it may not). Once those factors are in place (and only then) could we see a move to change leader.
But a Republican majority just legislated from the bench in a manner utterly unsupported by the constitution.
Disgraceful.
Anyway, it is what it is and hopefully we've moved past a big psychological hurdle in this country and can begin to knock over all the remaining dominoes quite quickly.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
You can compare regions for GDP (or better, GVA) up to 2015.
All things being equal, U.K. has declined against relatively against its peers since 2015 for reasons not worth rehearsing.
http://www.imactivate.com/regionexplorer/
@patrickkmaguire
·
58m
Tory campaign source on the mood in Batley: "Solid in parts, mixed in others and quite a bit of apathy. Too early to tell, but could be tight."
@GoodwinMJ
📘https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1410517934108196866 Interesting new study in UK & Japan. Increasing immigration stokes anti-immigration views not among right-wing ppl (who are already negative) but among ppl with left-wing economic views. Immigration pushes left-leaners to become more right-wing #RedWall"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1410517934108196866
Would suit the Tories just fine....
I recall an article about some of the high flyers at Google having to Google basic syntax. Makes me feel better when resorting to Stack Overflow again, anyway...
Just my take.
They need Tory voters to sit on their hands.
Still predicting a Tory win by 2-4 points.
Nothing to do with the fact that I'm currently re-reading Road to Wigan Pier.
You are sailing close to the wind
He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Tusk, tusk.
Now they know it has been
Edit: now 5.0.