Well, we're trying hard - the volunteers on the ground are now doing their FIFTH knockup (for those not in on the first 4 rounds).
Worth it because if we somehow nick this one it'll change the narrative and the mood. Just as we've had peak Johnson we'll have had trough Starmer.
Doesn't really make much sense, but narratives often don't, so I think you're right about mood changing.
And mood counts for so much. Politics = Perception. Sporting analogies don't usually work but for this one they totally do. Think tennis match, you're down a set and a break, struggling, and then you pull off a high risk backhand down the line to break back. It just clips it, matter of millimetres, could so easily have gone out, but it didn't. It's in. You are now, just from that event, from that instant onwards, exactly as Starmer will be if Labour hold Batley - BACK IN THE GAME.
I know that, you know that, Maggie knew that, but does Long Covid de Pfeffel know that? The residents within a 100 mile radius of HMNB Clyde deserve to know. HMG seems determined to send them to meet their maker.
Do you have any idea what a berk you look like with stuff like "Long Covid de Pfeffel"?
Indeed it is sad that anyone should use long covid in that context
I'm more worried about the impact on the governance of the UK. Mr Johnson's performance at PMQ was quite disturbing. There's something wrong. Or is he just going deaf?
I think you may have a point
Yesterday, Boris just mumbled and could not think on his feet
To me, he looked exhausted and he may have some residual issues with covid and even deafness
I suspect it is just not worth Boris taking PMQs seriously at the mo.
Remember Hague regularly beat Blair at PMQs with his questions -- & much good did it do Hague. He went down to a thumping defeat.
Boris is far happier mouthing optimistic banalities at photo-ops like visiting the new Nissan plant -- and more to the point, they are just much more effective for his purposes.
My guess is Boris probably thinks : why waste the energy boning up on a lot of dull detail for Sir Forensics ?
It is like Man City playing Forest Green Rovers Reserve Team. We are not going to see de Bruijne & Co puffing about the pitch, exerting themselves.
Maybe if Sir Forensics were a bit closer in the polls, lazy Boris might have to exert himself.
But, of course, Sir Fornesics is struggling to hold on to seats that Corbyn won rather easily.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Reports suggest Galloway being squeezed and Lib Dems making some inroads into the Cons vote in the three wards they apear to be working. Labour could make it.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Fuck. Hodges. Counter-indicator alert. Pile on Labour.
Reports suggest Galloway being squeezed and Lib Dems making some inroads into the Cons vote in the three wards they apear to be working. Labour could make it.
Hmmm. That Con > LD movement - even if small - could be decisive.
If I was betting it would be on Labour as I think Galloway repels so many voters they will back Kim Leadbeater
Also the polls have narrowed a bit, Boris is not on top of his game, and I am not convinced the England win and Nissan announcement will make a difference
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
There might be various reasons for this but one of them is a Delta surge in a country with rather lower vaccination than the UK.
I hope for their sake they've vaccinated the vulnerable, but it seems to be the UK which has really concentrated on age group by age group. Many nations seem to have just flung it open to whoever wants it.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
People use the NHS app? I don't have it installed. If they offer a paper option I'll write my name, if not I'll just take a photo of the QR code, my social circle as a whole is similar.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
You just turn off the tracing option on the NHS app. It’s that simple. A single toggle
It’s not that simple. Because if you go to a pub and someone is with you and they test positive they are legally bound to name you as an associate. Or so I was told today?
All things being equal, it’s going to be hard for Labour to retain this seat.
They need Tory voters to sit on their hands.
Still predicting a Tory win by 2-4 points.
I think Labour will win, and have a few £ on this result from a while back.
But the fact remains that Labour having to throw everything it has at retaining what should, in ordinary political times, be a comfortable hold, underlines the desperate state they are now in.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Expectations management doesn't automatically mean phoney . Sometimes its realistic dampening.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
People use the NHS app? I don't have it installed. If they offer a paper option I'll write my name, if not I'll just take a photo of the QR code, my social circle as a whole is similar.
Nobody sane uses the app, unless as Leon says you cripple it. But you can still be traced - simply by a positive test naming you as someone they met.
There might be various reasons for this but one of them is a Delta surge in a country with rather lower vaccination than the UK.
I hope for their sake they've vaccinated the vulnerable, but it seems to be the UK which has really concentrated on age group by age group. Many nations seem to have just flung it open to whoever wants it.
TLDR: 70+ are basically fully done. 50+ are largely done with first doses, though quite a lot of seconds to go in the 60-69 range.
Below that, there's some sense in mixing things up. The risk is pretty low for everyone, and if you just do people as they turn up, it ensures that all social networks benefit from some breaking of infection chains. Remember that, below a certain age, we're really vaccinating to protect the community, not the individual. One of the problems the UK has had in the last month or so is young people mixing and none of them being immune- unless they got sick with the sickness before.
But whoever thought that end of college year parties in the Balearics were a good idea needs to get into the sea.
Anecdata re the great unlocking. Paradoxically, I've now seen a couple of people book holidays but then decline social activity in order not to endanger their covid-free test status.
Yes. Me too. We are now in a bonkers no-mans land under which healthy people are desperately avoiding other healthy people for fear of bumping into a healthy person who has failed a covid test. See also, avoiding getting tested at all costs unless you are a school kid trying desperately to break school up three weeks early…
Doubled Vaxxed people hanging out with other double vaxxed people, the risk is absolutely infinitesimal.
True but people are still avoiding going out at all - eg to pubs - because they know that if they get traced they can’t go on holiday.
Edit: even in the UK. If you have a holiday planned for next weekend, you get traced, you can’t go. Even if you are fit and well.
You just turn off the tracing option on the NHS app. It’s that simple. A single toggle
It’s not that simple. Because if you go to a pub and someone is with you and they test positive they are legally bound to name you as an associate. Or so I was told today?
I only meet double vaxxed friends and fam (apart from my older daughter). And generally outdoors if possible. I reckon my risk is as minimal as it can be, while being consonant with a normal-ish life
I’m done with cowering before Covid
This autumn I’m gonna do some wild travelling, if at all possible. Starting in Pelion, then getting stranger
Belgium is to take legal action against France over plans for an offshore wind farm that it says will damage its hopes of reopening a post-Brexit ferry line across to Britain.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Expectations management doesn't automatically mean phoney . Sometimes its realistic dampening.
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Yes but if the betting market was wrong all along, that’s not a surprise. If the bookies make Ukraine favs on Sat, does that mean it’s a shock win for England?
Belgium is to take legal action against France over plans for an offshore wind farm that it says will damage its hopes of reopening a post-Brexit ferry line across to Britain.
Macron once again putting a load of hot air in the way of British trade.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Expectations management doesn't automatically mean phoney . Sometimes its realistic dampening.
On topic, it would be interesting to compare the leadership approval ratings now to before the last election.
Overall the leadership approval ratings now tend to show Boris have a better approval share than he did before the last election, not a worse one.
It's a long time since you've said Johnson in one of your posts. It seems to be always Boris now. Boris this, Boris that. Boris Boris Boris.
Disappointing to see.
A long time since you've obsessed over what people call him too.
Obsession = Understanding of his brand and what it's worth to him.
The obsession part is your insistence on trying to police and judge others on how they refer to him. It's the kind of thing I suspect you'd object to if people judged you for using a particular term. And chiding people, because of your disappointment, definitely is trying to police them.
No one doubts he has a powerful brand. But there's a lot more to peoples views than if they happen to say Boris or not, you negatively judge people for it way too much, without recognition of other factors or views they've expressed, as if branding is the only thing that matters.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I suspect Galloway's vote is in free fall and to be honest if that happens and labour hold the seat then that would be very good news for labour and would give Starmer room to extinguish the Corbynistas
Given Galloway’s presence, and the fact there’s no Brexity party standing, if Labour were to win that would be an amazing result. I still don’t see how they pull it off. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Labour have done well on expectations management that's for sure.
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
It's not phony though. The betting says it'll be a surprise if it happens.
Yes but if the betting market was wrong all along, that’s not a surprise. If the bookies make Ukraine favs on Sat, does that mean it’s a shock win for England?
It would probably mean the referee has been bought!
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Germany’s vaccine committee recommended that everyone who received an AstraZeneca first dose switch to Pfizer or Moderna jabs for better protection against Covid. Studies show that the immune response is “clearly superior” when an AstraZeneca shot is combined with a second mRNA vaccine, compared with double AstraZeneca jabs, said the German public health vaccine committee.
It's likely to be true the other way around as well. i.e. mRNA vaccines followed by viral vector vaccines produces a better immune responses as well. It's all down to stimulating the immune system to recognise the virus with as many different types of vaccine as possible.
If we had the time we would trial all the different combinations to find the best options for different circumstances, such the as fastest immune response, strongest response, most enduring response, broadest response, etc. Then we would use the best combination for the right circumstances, fast for outbreaks, enduring for routine vaccination, strongest perhaps for the most vulnerable, and so on. Ideally they might even be selected based on an individual's medical history.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
I'm sure they are. Its competition among companies to see if they can persuade government to give them one, or tax breaks or something else.
And perhaps conservatives want what you suggest, I dont know, but people aren't ideologically coherent, and I suspect most Conservatives just want results.
It's pretty well established I think that people, and thus parties, support or oppose the same thing depending on whose idea it is.
Hopefully, this leads to a change of policy but maybe Brazil, India and China need to experience nasty temperatures and wildfires too before they row back on their 600 new coal power stations.
Belgium is to take legal action against France over plans for an offshore wind farm that it says will damage its hopes of reopening a post-Brexit ferry line across to Britain.
Macron once again putting a load of hot air in the way of British trade.
Germany’s vaccine committee recommended that everyone who received an AstraZeneca first dose switch to Pfizer or Moderna jabs for better protection against Covid. Studies show that the immune response is “clearly superior” when an AstraZeneca shot is combined with a second mRNA vaccine, compared with double AstraZeneca jabs, said the German public health vaccine committee.
It's likely to be true the other way around as well. i.e. mRNA vaccines followed by viral vector vaccines produces a better immune responses as well. It's all down to stimulating the immune system to recognise the virus with as many different types of vaccine as possible.
If we had the time we would trial all the different combinations to find the best options for different circumstances, such the as fastest immune response, strongest response, most enduring response, broadest response, etc. Then we would use the best combination for the right circumstances, fast for outbreaks, enduring for routine vaccination, strongest perhaps for the most vulnerable, and so on. Ideally they might even be selected based on an individual's medical history.
I think someone did share a story on here about some studies on this starting in the UK.
Hopefully, this leads to a change of policy but maybe Brazil, India and China need to experience nasty temperatures and wildfires too before they row back on their 600 new coal power stations.
Of those three, I believe India has parts which are at risk of wet-bulb temperatures breaching the 35C limit for human survival - though Pakistan is more at risk I think. If the Indians aren't already aware of that risk then they haven't been paying attention.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I read somewhere that even the Biden administration realised that legally they couldn’t oppose this particular measure, or would like lose on the merits. The problem with a lot of these new laws is the reasons they are being introduced, but that doesn’t necessarily create a legal issue. Because there is no single electoral standard across the US. So when, for example, a lot of the Georgia legislation was criticised, the other side could point to eg. New York which is very limited in what it allows in its laws. The Supreme Court isn’t going to declare any particular measure unconstitutional if objectively the laws are reverting to a standard which was acceptable only a few years ago, and is consistent with laws elsewhere.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
I'm sure they are. Its competition among companies to see if they can persuade government to give them one, or tax breaks or something else.
And perhaps conservatives want what you suggest, I dont know, but people aren't ideologically coherent, and I suspect most Conservatives just want results.
It's pretty well established I think that people, and thus parties, support or oppose the same thing depending on whose idea it is.
Which, unfortunately, takes us back to you-know-what.
One of the benefits of being in a large, lumbering, one might almost say sclerotic block is the ability to say to GlobalCorp "well, we'd love to bung you a pile of money, but we're just not allowed to".
Whereas a nimble, flexible nation might be asked to assume the position of... for example, a reluctant Turkish conscript. Because they can. What with all that nimble flexibility.
Remember Number Two's speech at the end of the first Austin Powers movie? The great powers are no longer the nations- they're the corporations.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
Everyone should come to the Mediterranean right this minute
It’s a unique, once-in-a-century chance to see the perfect sea that dazzled Picasso in Antibes, Dali in Cadaques, Matisse in Nice, Sappho in Lesbos, and Virgil everywhere
It is hushed, and beautiful, and deserted. The waves are unruffled. The beaches untroubled. A few holiday makers laugh, then the dazzling sun washes them away, and the sublime summer silence returns
Yes but if the betting market was wrong all along, that’s not a surprise. If the bookies make Ukraine favs on Sat, does that mean it’s a shock win for England?
To be blunt, there's always value backing against England in anything because of those who bet purely on patriotic sentiment.
PP are currently going 4/11 England, 8/1 Ukraine and 10/3 the Draw at 90 minutes.
By any objective assessment, is that reasonable? In a 3-horse race, is an England win that likely? I think the 10/3 the draw is where I'd be playing with a saver on Ukraine simply because England could have an "off" night or just choke and if Ukraine nick a late goal.....
Overall, PP have England at 15/8 to win the tournament outright - that's assuming we get to the final and while Saturday may be one thing, I don't think the semi (whether against the Czech Rep or Denmark) is anything approaching a gimme. I appreciate the other side of the draw is a lot stronger and tougher so if it's Belgium or Italy or Spain who end up at Wembley, how would you price that?
The Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday is basically a 3-horse race and they are going 6/4, 13/8 and 3/1 - now, I know that's not the same but I would be pricing the football much nearer that.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
Do you know that Nissan got a bung from the Thatcher government for setting up in Sunderland in the 1980s ?
There have always been various ways to financially persuade different companies to invest indifferent places and I doubt any country has followed a purist strategy of non-intervention.
The only variables are how much bunging goes on, how it is done and how successful it it.
I know this is incredibly superficial of me, but my only thought on seeing the photos of the unveiling of the Diana statue is how well the Princes bald patches match. They're practically identical from the rear.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
Not just that. B+S had a Conservative MP from '83 to '97 in the splendid but slightly terrifying form of Dame Elizabeth Peacock. It's a marginal in the way that Hartlepool never was. Had it flipped in 2019, it wouldn't have been a shock. And the configuration of fringe candidates then is much more Conservative-friendly now than 18 months ago. If Labour win, it's definitely singles (not trebles) all round. But all round, anyway.
I suspect the margin either way will be less than the Galloway vote. So- if Gorgeous George has lost this for Labour, how does that play out?
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
I may regret this but I've laid Labour at 2/1. Shifts once the count starts are one thing, but betting shifts based just off GOTV thoughts are very unreliable imho.
Yes but if the betting market was wrong all along, that’s not a surprise. If the bookies make Ukraine favs on Sat, does that mean it’s a shock win for England?
To be blunt, there's always value backing against England in anything because of those who bet purely on patriotic sentiment.
PP are currently going 4/11 England, 8/1 Ukraine and 10/3 the Draw at 90 minutes.
By any objective assessment, is that reasonable? In a 3-horse race, is an England win that likely? I think the 10/3 the draw is where I'd be playing with a saver on Ukraine simply because England could have an "off" night or just choke and if Ukraine nick a late goal.....
Overall, PP have England at 15/8 to win the tournament outright - that's assuming we get to the final and while Saturday may be one thing, I don't think the semi (whether against the Czech Rep or Denmark) is anything approaching a gimme. I appreciate the other side of the draw is a lot stronger and tougher so if it's Belgium or Italy or Spain who end up at Wembley, how would you price that?
The Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday is basically a 3-horse race and they are going 6/4, 13/8 and 3/1 - now, I know that's not the same but I would be pricing the football much nearer that.
The price against Ukraine doesn’t seem to me totally ridiculous, the price to win the tournament is.
A much more fun bet would be pricing up the number of England supporters who manage to make it into the stadium in Rome!
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
Not just that. B+S had a Conservative MP from '83 to '97 in the splendid but slightly terrifying form of Dame Elizabeth Peacock. It's a marginal in the way that Hartlepool never was. Had it flipped in 2019, it wouldn't have been a shock. And the configuration of fringe candidates then is much more Conservative-friendly now than 18 months ago. If Labour win, it's definitely singles (not trebles) all round. But all round, anyway.
I suspect the margin either way will be less than the Galloway vote. So- if Gorgeous George has lost this for Labour, how does that play out?
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
That's a label by twitter, and it's not the PM's official account.
I know this is incredibly superficial of me, but my only thought on seeing the photos of the unveiling of the Diana statue is how well the Princes bald patches match. They're practically identical from the rear.
It’s a pretty terrible statue. Why are we incapable of graceful public statuary? It either looks intensely kitsch, or downright weird
Everyone should come to the Mediterranean right this minute
It’s a unique, once-in-a-century chance to see the perfect sea that dazzled Picasso in Antibes, Dali in Cadaques, Matisse in Nice, Sappho in Lesbos, and Virgil everywhere
It is hushed, and beautiful, and deserted. The waves are unruffled. The beaches untroubled. A few holiday makers laugh, then the dazzling sun washes them away, and the sublime summer silence returns
Amazing
Where in Majorca are you staying? About three years ago we stayed in a fabulous place in the SW of the island: Castell Son Claret. We did a guided walk to a remote beach near Sant Elm followed by a visit to a vineyard. Fabulous. Love Palma too. I'm very jealous.
We are off to Menorca in two weeks. Fingers crossed.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I read somewhere that even the Biden administration realised that legally they couldn’t oppose this particular measure, or would like lose on the merits. The problem with a lot of these new laws is the reasons they are being introduced, but that doesn’t necessarily create a legal issue. Because there is no single electoral standard across the US. So when, for example, a lot of the Georgia legislation was criticised, the other side could point to eg. New York which is very limited in what it allows in its laws. The Supreme Court isn’t going to declare any particular measure unconstitutional if objectively the laws are reverting to a standard which was acceptable only a few years ago, and is consistent with laws elsewhere.
It's not about comparing one state to another. That's the smokescreen the GOP and GOP justices use to justify their voting restrictions. It is about changes to voting laws designed to target minorities.
The whole point of the laws is that they use "racially neutral language" to change the voting laws in ways that are overwhelmingly detrimental to minorities. As long as they don't leave a document trail saying "we are doing this to stop people with high melanin counts from voting" then GOP justices will nod it through (a few years ago North Carolina GOP fell foul of that when they commissioned research into what forms of early voting African Americans specifically used and then enacted laws to reduce those forms of early voting, that was enough to get the laws struck off).
The SCOTUS decision means only a self incriminating note will now get discriminatory voting laws struck off. The VRA is basically meaningless now.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
Do you know that Nissan got a bung from the Thatcher government for setting up in Sunderland in the 1980s ?
There have always been various ways to financially persuade different companies to invest indifferent places and I doubt any country has followed a purist strategy of non-intervention.
The only variables are how much bunging goes on, how it is done and how successful it it.
Whether something is in line with Conservative principles/orthodoxy is one thing, whether is is good value is another.
Sky News talking about foreign travel. Over and over and over again.
Everyone is desperate to get away. This is now a universal theme. We’ve been locked in our green, lovely/dank, tiny island (delete according to Remain/Leave status) for 16 months. Let the people go
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
The Nissan thing is solely about the Brexit optics, and the optics of Brexit are crucial to the standing of Boris. 100 million quid of taxpayers' money is probably thought to be a fair spend for shoring up his reputation.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
It's a Twitter thing.
He is using his own personal account which Twitter considers 'United Kingdom government official'.
If Sir Keir Starmer becomes PM his personal Twitter will also be similarly labelled.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
Do you know that Nissan got a bung from the Thatcher government for setting up in Sunderland in the 1980s ?
There have always been various ways to financially persuade different companies to invest indifferent places and I doubt any country has followed a purist strategy of non-intervention.
The only variables are how much bunging goes on, how it is done and how successful it it.
OK with you now and I completely agree with what you are saying and yes it isn't new. Still don't like it and it annoys me more when Tories do it. At least with Labour (particularly of old) they really believed they could run industry better so they were ideologically sound, but wrong. However the Tories have a habit of talking about freeing up industry and then meddling incessantly.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I read somewhere that even the Biden administration realised that legally they couldn’t oppose this particular measure, or would like lose on the merits. The problem with a lot of these new laws is the reasons they are being introduced, but that doesn’t necessarily create a legal issue. Because there is no single electoral standard across the US. So when, for example, a lot of the Georgia legislation was criticised, the other side could point to eg. New York which is very limited in what it allows in its laws. The Supreme Court isn’t going to declare any particular measure unconstitutional if objectively the laws are reverting to a standard which was acceptable only a few years ago, and is consistent with laws elsewhere.
It's not about comparing one state to another. That's the smokescreen the GOP and GOP justices use to justify their voting restrictions. It is about changes to voting laws designed to target minorities.
The whole point of the laws is that they use "racially neutral language" to change the voting laws in ways that are overwhelmingly detrimental to minorities. As long as they don't leave a document trail saying "we are doing this to stop people with high melanin counts from voting" then GOP justices will nod it through (a few years ago North Carolina GOP fell foul of that when they commissioned research into what forms of early voting African Americans specifically used and then enacted laws to reduce those forms of early voting, that was enough to get the laws struck off).
The SCOTUS decision means only a self incriminating note will now get discriminatory voting laws struck off. The VRA is basically meaningless now.
No I understand that - which is why I emphasised it was the reasons that these restrictions are being introduced that is important. But, partisan judges or not, it is always going to be a hard slog to convince that voting rules in one state are unconstitutional/illegal when tougher rules exist elsewhere. And it has been suggested (not without justification) that some of the stuff being introduced, particularly around mail in voting, is responding to Trump, but could actually be to the detriment of some of the GOP traditional core vote.
In many ways, the really scary stuff is not about the voting rules per se, but the ancillary powers that state legislatures are awarding themselves to override electoral outcomes/certification.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
It's his personal account - twitter have chosen to call it governmental - it's not the prime ministerial twitter account so your point is just bilge.
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I’ve no idea of the substance of the case or the SCOTUS reasoning for their judgement, so I make no comment on it.
But there is a very high bar to prove that SCOTUS is guilty of ‘partisan bullshit’
Virtually the only time I comment on these sorts of topics is to gently chide you for wild accusations related to something that’s a bit of an obsession for you
Well, SCOTUS has just basically invalidated the VRA.
I would pile on the GOP for midterms and next Pres election because that's it.
They have comprehensively rejected the argument that a voting restriction that demonstrably affects minorities more is not in and of itself a violation of Section 2 of the VRA.
That is what is known as a bullshit garbage partisan decision.
I make a precise and careful judgement You are sailing close to the wind He makes a bullshit garbage partisan decision
Oh thank god, I was worried when you hadn't rushed to the defence of blatant GOP bullshit within minutes. I thought something might have happened to you.
I read somewhere that even the Biden administration realised that legally they couldn’t oppose this particular measure, or would like lose on the merits. The problem with a lot of these new laws is the reasons they are being introduced, but that doesn’t necessarily create a legal issue. Because there is no single electoral standard across the US. So when, for example, a lot of the Georgia legislation was criticised, the other side could point to eg. New York which is very limited in what it allows in its laws. The Supreme Court isn’t going to declare any particular measure unconstitutional if objectively the laws are reverting to a standard which was acceptable only a few years ago, and is consistent with laws elsewhere.
It's not about comparing one state to another. That's the smokescreen the GOP and GOP justices use to justify their voting restrictions. It is about changes to voting laws designed to target minorities.
The whole point of the laws is that they use "racially neutral language" to change the voting laws in ways that are overwhelmingly detrimental to minorities. As long as they don't leave a document trail saying "we are doing this to stop people with high melanin counts from voting" then GOP justices will nod it through (a few years ago North Carolina GOP fell foul of that when they commissioned research into what forms of early voting African Americans specifically used and then enacted laws to reduce those forms of early voting, that was enough to get the laws struck off).
The SCOTUS decision means only a self incriminating note will now get discriminatory voting laws struck off. The VRA is basically meaningless now.
No I understand that - which is why I emphasised it was the reasons that these restrictions are being introduced that is important. But, partisan judges or not, it is always going to be a hard slog to convince that voting rules in one state are unconstitutional/illegal when tougher rules exist elsewhere. And it has been suggested (not without justification) that some of the stuff being introduced, particularly around mail in voting, is responding to Trump, but could actually be to the detriment of some of the GOP traditional core vote.
In many ways, the really scary stuff is not about the voting rules per se, but the ancillary powers that state legislatures are awarding themselves to override electoral outcomes/certification.
Yes, the real bad stuff in the Georgia and Arizona laws is the replacement of election officials and stripping the secretary of state of election responsibility respectively.
Everyone should come to the Mediterranean right this minute
It’s a unique, once-in-a-century chance to see the perfect sea that dazzled Picasso in Antibes, Dali in Cadaques, Matisse in Nice, Sappho in Lesbos, and Virgil everywhere
It is hushed, and beautiful, and deserted. The waves are unruffled. The beaches untroubled. A few holiday makers laugh, then the dazzling sun washes them away, and the sublime summer silence returns
Amazing
Where in Majorca are you staying? About three years ago we stayed in a fabulous place in the SW of the island: Castell Son Claret. We did a guided walk to a remote beach near Sant Elm followed by a visit to a vineyard. Fabulous. Love Palma too. I'm very jealous.
We are off to Menorca in two weeks. Fingers crossed.
In illetes, an upmarket seafront suburb of palma about 5km southwest
I’ve always liked palma but I’ve sneered at Majorca in general. Because of the mass tourism. Seeing it without crowds is remarkable
Menorca is gorgeous. Check out the nature reserves and the clifftop walks
Everyone should come to the Mediterranean right this minute
It’s a unique, once-in-a-century chance to see the perfect sea that dazzled Picasso in Antibes, Dali in Cadaques, Matisse in Nice, Sappho in Lesbos, and Virgil everywhere
It is hushed, and beautiful, and deserted. The waves are unruffled. The beaches untroubled. A few holiday makers laugh, then the dazzling sun washes them away, and the sublime summer silence returns
Amazing
Where in Majorca are you staying? About three years ago we stayed in a fabulous place in the SW of the island: Castell Son Claret. We did a guided walk to a remote beach near Sant Elm followed by a visit to a vineyard. Fabulous. Love Palma too. I'm very jealous.
We are off to Menorca in two weeks. Fingers crossed.
Our favourite hotel in Palma - so much so, we've stayed there four times:
It's beautiful: stunning simplicity, brilliant service and great breakfast. In the middle of Palma, but on a very quiet street. 20 minutes on a bus from the airport then a 5-minute walk.
In normal times, Labour holding Batley & Spen would be a non-event.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
That BJ tweet you've linked to is labelled as 'United Kingdom government official'. It's not appropriate for him to use this account for partisan tweets relating to a by-election. Pretty disgraceful, but not surprising.
It's his personal account - twitter have chosen to call it governmental - it's not the prime ministerial twitter account so your point is just bilge.
I am truly amazed at Tories on here supporting the subsidy to Nissan. It is as if they have become members of the Labour party of old.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
You're over a decade too late in complaining.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
Hi Richard,
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
There is nothing unconservative about regional development policy. Nissan will not be getting cash - it will make a significant investment and create 1600 new jobs. In return it will pay lower taxes for a period of time. That’s a temporary cashflow benefit but it only partially offsets the cost of the investment
Yes but if the betting market was wrong all along, that’s not a surprise. If the bookies make Ukraine favs on Sat, does that mean it’s a shock win for England?
To be blunt, there's always value backing against England in anything because of those who bet purely on patriotic sentiment.
PP are currently going 4/11 England, 8/1 Ukraine and 10/3 the Draw at 90 minutes.
By any objective assessment, is that reasonable? In a 3-horse race, is an England win that likely? I think the 10/3 the draw is where I'd be playing with a saver on Ukraine simply because England could have an "off" night or just choke and if Ukraine nick a late goal.....
Overall, PP have England at 15/8 to win the tournament outright - that's assuming we get to the final and while Saturday may be one thing, I don't think the semi (whether against the Czech Rep or Denmark) is anything approaching a gimme. I appreciate the other side of the draw is a lot stronger and tougher so if it's Belgium or Italy or Spain who end up at Wembley, how would you price that?
The Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday is basically a 3-horse race and they are going 6/4, 13/8 and 3/1 - now, I know that's not the same but I would be pricing the football much nearer that.
England really are the better team. On Fifa Rankings, England is the fourth best team in the world, and Ukraine are 24th. Compare to the domestic game, and this is like Chelsea playing Swansea. The only danger I can see is the temperature in Rome which is forecast as 32 degrees C during the afternoon, falling to 26 by kick-off.
Comments
*My autocorrect made that ‘torturing,’ which is a WTAF moment.
He's not going to invade Iraq.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410661628543123464
Overall the leadership approval ratings now tend to show Boris have a better approval share than he did before the last election, not a worse one.
Hodges. Counter-indicator alert.
Pile on Labour.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
There might be various reasons for this but one of them is a Delta surge in a country with rather lower vaccination than the UK.
That Con > LD movement - even if small - could be decisive.
Also the polls have narrowed a bit, Boris is not on top of his game, and I am not convinced the England win and Nissan announcement will make a difference
Labour holding their own seat, in a by-election 11 years into a Tory led government, should be something they can take for granted not "an amazing result".
Probably best not to read too much into this. Polling day betting markets are often very bad indicators.
https://twitter.com/shadsy/status/1410663181727547400
Disappointing to see.
But the fact remains that Labour having to throw everything it has at retaining what should, in ordinary political times, be a comfortable hold, underlines the desperate state they are now in.
Bonkers under-reporting. Especially given the numbers of Germans out here in Majorca
https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-06-29/spain-rushes-to-vaccinate-younger-age-groups-as-coronavirus-cases-rise.html?rel=mas
TLDR: 70+ are basically fully done. 50+ are largely done with first doses, though quite a lot of seconds to go in the 60-69 range.
Below that, there's some sense in mixing things up. The risk is pretty low for everyone, and if you just do people as they turn up, it ensures that all social networks benefit from some breaking of infection chains. Remember that, below a certain age, we're really vaccinating to protect the community, not the individual. One of the problems the UK has had in the last month or so is young people mixing and none of them being immune- unless they got sick with the sickness before.
But whoever thought that end of college year parties in the Balearics were a good idea needs to get into the sea.
I’m done with cowering before Covid
This autumn I’m gonna do some wild travelling, if at all possible. Starting in Pelion, then getting stranger
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-wind-farm-causes-storm-in-belgium-w63w955vr
Belgium is to take legal action against France over plans for an offshore wind farm that it says will damage its hopes of reopening a post-Brexit ferry line across to Britain.
Also, Brexit and Heavy Woolen refugees.
I'm no libertarian. I support government provision of health and education as a fundamental right for all. I support Governments setting strategy and providing infrastructure for their stated aims (whether I agree with them or not). So if we have a green agenda we should put in place the infrastructure to support that. I support the idea of paying farmers to look after the countryside (and decades ago we supported them differently to be self sufficient in food when that was a different strategic aim).
However government, which are notoriously bad at making business decisions, bunging £100M to one company is madness. It screws with the market and it stifles new business, which have a hard enough time anyway competing with the big boys. What right has a government got to bugger around like this?
If you suggested to a Conservative that we should nationalise Nissan they would think you were mad. Why? Because they think competition is better than government controlled industry. But here they are messing around with competition. Aren't a whole lot of other companies now thinking where is my bung?
I was in Amersham at 10pm and LD activists leaving their HQ were not at all confident of winning, and yet they won easily.
No one doubts he has a powerful brand. But there's a lot more to peoples views than if they happen to say Boris or not, you negatively judge people for it way too much, without recognition of other factors or views they've expressed, as if branding is the only thing that matters.
At least half were probably telling you what they want to hear Dr Nick...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183248116
BF price is 6 and that is for 50% + share.
What do you think the trillion quid plus of government borrowing during the last decade has been used for ?
What's the difference between bunging Nissan to build a new factory and bunging oldies to spend on holidays and meals out ?
If we had the time we would trial all the different combinations to find the best options for different circumstances, such the as fastest immune response, strongest response, most enduring response, broadest response, etc. Then we would use the best combination for the right circumstances, fast for outbreaks, enduring for routine vaccination, strongest perhaps for the most vulnerable, and so on. Ideally they might even be selected based on an individual's medical history.
And perhaps conservatives want what you suggest, I dont know, but people aren't ideologically coherent, and I suspect most Conservatives just want results.
It's pretty well established I think that people, and thus parties, support or oppose the same thing depending on whose idea it is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57678054
Hopefully, this leads to a change of policy but maybe Brazil, India and China need to experience nasty temperatures and wildfires too before they row back on their 600 new coal power stations.
If the Tories slip past 1/2 then I'd put money back on them, to be honest.
Not sure what you are referring to so don't know whether to agree or disagree.
But there is a difference between spending or taxing across the board and also doing stuff for strategic reasons compared to bunging individual companies.
I might not agree with the tax and spend decisions or the strategies of a particular Government, but I respect the Government for making those decisions. I can not respect the decision to give one commercial company £100m which gives it an advantage over its competitors. I particularly find ironic that it is a Conservative government that is doing so.
But I agree with those who say a Labour hold in these non-normal times would be a huge boost for Starmer. Overnight, his critics within the party would shut up (or be silenced, until at least the next crisis). And at the same time, the hint of an emerging narrative against the government in general and BJ in particular would gather steam. Although Tory MPs shouldn't worry if they don't win Batley & Spen, I suspect they would worry, as they were, until very recently, expecting to sail home. And Galloway would hopefully f*** off back to the gutter where he belongs.
One of the benefits of being in a large, lumbering, one might almost say sclerotic block is the ability to say to GlobalCorp "well, we'd love to bung you a pile of money, but we're just not allowed to".
Whereas a nimble, flexible nation might be asked to assume the position of... for example, a reluctant Turkish conscript. Because they can. What with all that nimble flexibility.
Remember Number Two's speech at the end of the first Austin Powers movie? The great powers are no longer the nations- they're the corporations.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410659570855391244
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1410536383341543425
It’s a unique, once-in-a-century chance to see the perfect sea that dazzled Picasso in Antibes, Dali in Cadaques, Matisse in Nice, Sappho in Lesbos, and Virgil everywhere
It is hushed, and beautiful, and deserted. The waves are unruffled. The beaches untroubled. A few holiday makers laugh, then the dazzling sun washes them away, and the sublime summer silence returns
Amazing
PP are currently going 4/11 England, 8/1 Ukraine and 10/3 the Draw at 90 minutes.
By any objective assessment, is that reasonable? In a 3-horse race, is an England win that likely? I think the 10/3 the draw is where I'd be playing with a saver on Ukraine simply because England could have an "off" night or just choke and if Ukraine nick a late goal.....
Overall, PP have England at 15/8 to win the tournament outright - that's assuming we get to the final and while Saturday may be one thing, I don't think the semi (whether against the Czech Rep or Denmark) is anything approaching a gimme. I appreciate the other side of the draw is a lot stronger and tougher so if it's Belgium or Italy or Spain who end up at Wembley, how would you price that?
The Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday is basically a 3-horse race and they are going 6/4, 13/8 and 3/1 - now, I know that's not the same but I would be pricing the football much nearer that.
There have always been various ways to financially persuade different companies to invest indifferent places and I doubt any country has followed a purist strategy of non-intervention.
The only variables are how much bunging goes on, how it is done and how successful it it.
I suspect the margin either way will be less than the Galloway vote. So- if Gorgeous George has lost this for Labour, how does that play out?
A much more fun bet would be pricing up the number of England supporters who manage to make it into the stadium in Rome!
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet
We are off to Menorca in two weeks. Fingers crossed.
It's not about comparing one state to another. That's the smokescreen the GOP and GOP justices use to justify their voting restrictions. It is about changes to voting laws designed to target minorities.
The whole point of the laws is that they use "racially neutral language" to change the voting laws in ways that are overwhelmingly detrimental to minorities. As long as they don't leave a document trail saying "we are doing this to stop people with high melanin counts from voting" then GOP justices will nod it through (a few years ago North Carolina GOP fell foul of that when they commissioned research into what forms of early voting African Americans specifically used and then enacted laws to reduce those forms of early voting, that was enough to get the laws struck off).
The SCOTUS decision means only a self incriminating note will now get discriminatory voting laws struck off. The VRA is basically meaningless now.
Narrowing is probably gamblers not wanting to.get fingers burnt twice.
He is using his own personal account which Twitter considers 'United Kingdom government official'.
If Sir Keir Starmer becomes PM his personal Twitter will also be similarly labelled.
https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/state-affiliated
In many ways, the really scary stuff is not about the voting rules per se, but the ancillary powers that state legislatures are awarding themselves to override electoral outcomes/certification.
But there is a very high bar to prove that SCOTUS is guilty of ‘partisan bullshit’
Virtually the only time I comment on these sorts of topics is to gently chide you for wild accusations related to something that’s a bit of an obsession for you
I’ve always liked palma but I’ve sneered at Majorca in general. Because of the mass tourism. Seeing it without crowds is remarkable
Menorca is gorgeous. Check out the nature reserves and the clifftop walks
Tories 1.54
Lab 2.66
https://www.posadaterrasanta.com/
It's beautiful: stunning simplicity, brilliant service and great breakfast. In the middle of Palma, but on a very quiet street. 20 minutes on a bus from the airport then a 5-minute walk.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1410658561949118469/photo/1