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The widespread notion that LAB can automatically assume 2nd prefs of LDs is not supported by real li
The widespread notion that LAB can automatically assume 2nd prefs of LDs is not supported by real life elections – politicalbetting.com
Inevitably after outcomes like yesterday’s by-election there are calls for a progressive alliance of some sort to be created whereby there is an arrangement so that the two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific seat stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised. This is the way it is argued that the FPTP system does not always work best for the Tories.
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Nearly beat the SE...
Edit. 4th like Labour just.
The point about an electoral pact is to oust a Conservative government. If that results in a net gain of only 1 vote in a Lab/Con marginal, then it is serving its purpose.
Edit:: From recent comments some folk obviously do. I don't. It is only 6 years ago the LDs were propping up a Tory government.
Just kidding.
They were appalled to discover that the LibDems thought that they weren't SpareLabour (The Coalition), and were quite angry about it.
The student fees things was simply the excuse - they were looking for an opportunity to go back home to Labour.
From the last thread - the one to watch is the age differentiated hospital admissions
Because that’s what I was asking for this morning and AFAICS one was not forthcoming.
However, that hasn't applied for over a decade. Not sure why anyone would be at all surprised by the header's charts.
I am only in the sense that I'm surprised they all saw more transfers to Lab than the Cons.
Depending on their leaderships I am generally far more anti-one (or last election both!) of those than I am pro anyone else. I don't think that is unusual, at least not more unusual than being a Lib Dem or Green.
The Lib Dem opposition to New Labour wasn't so much from the Left as the Liberal position.
As issue is people who assume that anyone objecting to anything done by the Labour party must be attacking from the Right, since the Labour party owns the left....
(a) will maximise crossover far more than sponantaneous 2nd preferences, but at the cost of some rejecting a party they'd have voted for without it ("What! You're in the pocket of X? Not voting for that!"). (b) occasionally happens at Parl'y level now and often at lower levels. My impression is that about half the supporters of the other party take the hint, and the others mostly stay at home. (c) is pretty much what happened in A+C though Labour did make a token effort. We'll see if the Batley and Spen LD candidate conversely refrains from the "Winning here" stuff - if so, it suggests that an element of mutual common sense is creeping in.
A propos of nothing, I was contemplating the Wakefield result in 2019.
https://www.wakefield.gov.uk/elections/previous-election-results-electorate-statistics/general-election-results/general-election-results-2019
@simoncoveney
@MarosSefcovic tells College of Europe in Bruges that EU welcomes UKs recognition of the importance of trust, by asking for agreement on extension to the chilled meats grace period rather than acting unilaterally on NI Protocol.
- I’ll be urging the EU to respond with generosity.
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1405909246647099394
Tory MP on trial for sexual assault on 15 year old.
dynamic alignmentrule taking on SPS in the wake of the announcement of the Australia deal?Where's their sense of fair play god damnit?
But I would have thought that if these increase the press will be all over it. Given the demographic in sure there will be plenty of high powered interest in the stats.
Combine those with perhaps 20 odd seats that could fall to LD given a reasonable Tory > LD shift in the SE and you have a path to victory for Lab w/ LD.
But Reuters is saying the ruling means that the AZN "may" have committed a breach and that wasn't settled. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/astrazeneca-says-eu-loses-legal-bid-more-vaccine-supplies-by-end-june-2021-06-18/
What's your take on it? Has the court ruled AZN is in breach or not?
Although we might then have to add any Brexit party vote to the permutation. Obviously in some seats it wouldn’t apply, like Kensington.
The LD peers are clearly worse than everyone else's peers and that's a low bar.
I guess it's me getting old but I see almost no wisdom exhibited by any politicians, and the LDs really are for my money the bottom of the pile. Just empty.
Their leader doesn't help.
The necessity is for “Tory Remainers” to go Lib Dem. While in other contests, Tory Remainer types might second pref Tory; it’s totally feasible for them to vote tactically against *this* government.
It's a shame that there aren't more results tabulated from parts further South.
One is the coalition experience which tested the theory that LDs are just moderate Tories to destruction. They got demolished for going in with them instead.
Secondly there are very few constituencies where LD and Labour fight it out for first place. In almost every case it is either Labour or LD up against a Tory. If they were genuine adversaries there would be lots of seats where Lab and LD would be fighting it out for first place, especially in those places where Tories are naturally weak. Just as there are lots of seats where Con and Lab do so, and Con and LD do so.
US Catholic bishops approve drafting of Communion document that could lead to rebuke of President Joe Biden.
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1405938606426972166
Not a great LD selling point. Interesting though.
The LDs really should have great unassailable heartlands in the midlands etc. They just have outliers and leafy deodorists.
That’s ultimately a fairly major defeat for the EU. It has got some nice words, but it’s not getting the vaccines it demanded, or the money. Not, of course, that it was in a court’s power to increase the number of doses available, that depending on the pace of production.
Von der Leyen is spinning this as a major win for the EU because she is a fluent and shameless liar, not for any other reason.
I think though it is hard to interpret too much from PCC elections as turnout is so low.
That "may" in the Reuters' quote is interesting - would totally change the sense if in the judgement.
There'ss plenty of spin going on eg that AZ are 70% responsible for legal costs, without mentioning the very low ceiling on it. And I have seen that reported the other way, too.
These are the kind of snippets being quoted, including your extract, pretending that "this was never about the doses" (not what EuCo said...). Until I get a translation of the whole thing, it is just spin.
We saw all this with the contract, too.
1. The Celtic fringe - Orkney & Shetland, Cornwall, etc
2. South West London
3. The market towns of South East England
4. Scottish seats where they were the perceived challengers to the Conservatives
Re 1, while Orkney & Shetland remains, the LDs have been hammered in the Southwest - probably at least partly due to their Europhilia. I don't see a quick way back for them there.
2. South West London remains a strong area, and one where they have the opportunity to make further gains in the future. It wouldn't be a surprise if they won both Carshalton and Wimbledon in 2024.
3. The LibDems used to have a swathe of seats - Lewes, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Winchester, etc. They have been almost eliminated. But C&A, plus successes in the locals should give them optimism here.
4. Well, it's not anti-Tory tactical voting any more, it's anti-SNP. The LDs could gain - at most - two more seats in Scotland. And realistically, one is more likely.
Put those together, and you can see... ohh... the opportunity for the LDs to get back to about 20 seats. But getting much beyond there requires them to start nationally polling a lot higher than current levels.
And wanting to can HS2 is not exactly going to play well for them.
Except, of course, they don't want to can HS2. Just not have it go from London to the Midlands.....
Of course the British Liberal Party had zero problem with FPTP in the age of Gladstone v Disraeli, and for decades thereafter. Wonder why?
Four were in London and its suburbs. Two were in towns west of London. And one was in Cumbria.
Today, five will be in London and its suburbs...
(Well done LDs, and well done Mike for tipping it)
The LDs will never be taken seriously in a 'progressive alliance'. It's just a ridiculous idea.
Just because Fabricant is as mad as a box of frogs and pig ignorant on all matters to do with railways doesn’t mean he doesn’t occasionally say something right.
But equally, given how strongly he’s opposed, why would you vote for a Lib Dem?
Meanwhile, in Tamworth, Burton, Stone and Cannock, the other seats similarly adversely affected, they are nowhere. Heck, they didn’t even bother to stand in Cannock.
At least you didn’t say Mackems
So naturally the crazed Catholic wing of the US Catholic Bishops's Conference is wanting to fill that space. EDIT - In spite of Pope Francis calling for delay in making the decision.
And if you have enough faith, trust, happy thoughts and pixie dust then you too can fly.
We've had six months of hagiographies for Hancock and his manoeuvring to keep doses in the UK and block exports.
Now a UK-based company's reputation is in tatters and it's unclear what benefit that early vaccine-hoarding gave in the end.
Time for a reevaluation?
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1405936861357486084?s=20
Since it's the Swedish company that was sued, not sure what he's going on about....
They asked for 300 million, the court said 80, 70 of which have already been delivered.....