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The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going – politicalbetting.com
The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going – politicalbetting.com
The worry that is starting to be expressed a lot more is that BoJo & co so much enjoy all the powers that fighting COVID has given them that they will be reluctant to give it up. For there will always be a reason why things shouldn’t be eased and so far at least the polls are generally supportitve.
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1) HMG has been captured by mad scientists who fiddle the figures
2) HMG is power-crazed and does not want to set us free
3) HMG is sensibly acting to buy time to vaccinate against Delta
The first two are popular here but polling generally shows a majority support whatever measures are taken. It would be possible for Opposition parties to propose alternative courses of action based on the Covid data but there is no sign of them doing so.
"Mobile phones are as addictive as crack cocaine, a head teacher who intends to ban them in school hours has claimed."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mobile-phones-banned-to-curb-sexual-bullying-at-school-khv69jv0m
Conservative 1.05
Liberal Democrats 15
As the header notes, LibDem 40+ per cent is favourite on Smarkets.
General election 2019
Conservative 55.4%
Liberal Democrats 26.3%
Labour 12.9%
Green 5.5%
General election 2017
Conservative 60.7%
Labour 20.6%
Liberal Democrats 13.0%
Green 3.0%
UKIP 2.8%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57383497
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/boris-johnson-approved-hs2-based-garbage-data-dominic-cummings/
It's certainly a live issue in the constituency. An old friend of mine lives on the edge of Amersham and will never vote for the party again, solely because of HS2.
The timing of the lockdown farce yesterday as well as Brexit starting to unravel over the Northern Ireland protocol are also tarnishing Brand Boris. Even an announcement on a UK-Australia trade deal may not help as it is not going down well with British farmers, who feel the Aussies have an unfair advantage. In a seat that was pro-Remain these things still matter.
I'm on the LibDems with good odds following Mike's tip. It's a bet I expect to lose but stranger things have happened in by-elections.
It would be very droll if, having captured the north, the tories lost their homeland.
But, the LibDems are close on 40% behind the government in national polling. Plus, for decade after decade, the Tory vote has been very predictable in this seat - between 50-odd percent and 60-odd percent. Safe, but never massively so.
The LibDems are also saddling themselves with the Nimby label. Bollocks to Brexit, now Bollocks to Building. They are very keen on pushing a humanitarian agenda - as long as once people get here they don't mind living under trees.
Oh, and not THOSE trees. They are ancient woodland. Can't have people shitting in those...
And they are very keen on people using trains. Just, not THAT train.
They are starting to build up internal contradictions that again show they aren't a party of serious decisions required of government. Just say whatever it takes to win a seat. But their opponents will be watching, storing up posters and leaflets with which to whack them around the head.
The Lib Dems are probably a 20% shot.
Value loser.
(FWIW, yesterday’s announcement really should have been in Parliament, Hoyle was right).
Orpington''s happen once in a hundred yrs and it hasn't been a hundred yrs...
There had also been a great deal of positivity in the Press about the Liberals in general, as opposed tom the negativity or, indeed, absence of any notice at all, which there has been for the LibDems over the past couple of years.
Even if they do win they'll still only be the fourth party in Parliament, and that's no place to be, as far as getting a chance to speak.
Foreign holidays for Britons are not expected to restart in large numbers until at least August, UK's ambassadors to destination countries warn local officials
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9685683/Foreign-holidays-Britons-not-expected-restart-large-numbers-August.html
The UK government made several announcements yesterday. One was that they expected the UK's world-leading vaccination programme would slow to a crawl.
No-one noticed.
Even the FT - usually so good at this quantitative stuff - has this headline. (1/2)
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1404671632036278272?s=20
Any data you see to the contrary must be wrong, as the model is superior to the data.
Mostly because it would contain lots of rude words.
This has proved very effective for the Tories, of course...
Schools want 75% rebate on this summer's exam fees
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-57470281
I was only 9 in 1962 so it passed me by.
I do remember it being talked about interminably at every by election after that usually by Robin Day usually followed by a dismal result afterwards.
Ed Davey has done nothing afaik to raise the profile of the Lib Dems since his Coronation.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c92a9f34-cd55-11eb-979e-6eddfcb6b6ef?shareToken=288488d06274767693f61577b66b0440
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jun/03/schools-should-not-send-exam-year-pupils-home-early-says-ofsted-head
Schools in England should continue to educate pupils for the remainder of the school year, rather than giving them an extended holiday as “study leave” for exams that were cancelled, the head of the Ofsted has said.
The Lib Dems are not opposed to building. But Lib Dems are very much opposed to having decisions taken by a small clique around Johnson, who think they can dictate policy and impose it on the rest of us. Especially, of course, when bribery and corruption are also involved.
From what I have read about the C & A campaign, local people do not take kindly to being bossed about and told what they must do. I for my part most certainly want planning and development near me to be decided locally, not by a gang of incompetents in London, who are set on arranging for their powerful donors to make immense fortunes. And it appears that a lot of people in the constituency agree with the Liberal Democrat approach.
But at the same time there is the chorus of not enough.
There will be redundancies as furlough unwinds and repossessions of commercial premises are allowed again. A lot of businesses are dead men walking. But the indications are that there will be a lot of growth too. Hard to say how it will balance out.
https://twitter.com/simon_telegraph/status/1404685743562362880?s=20
Reports this morning of frantic lobbying by Wimbledon, Silverstone and Wembley, to allow full crowds at outdoor events in July.
Silverstone have almost sold out 150k tickets for the F1 on 18th July (although I had to return mine, rolled over from last year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2021/06/14/briti...
“ As a 550-acre outdoor site, Silverstone is the largest major sporting venue in the UK, with its 70,000 grandstand seats spread around a 3.6-mile track.
“ The vast majority of the 120,000-plus spectators who usually attend a Grand Prix weekend also travel to the circuit by car.
“ That would avoid the prospect of thousands being crammed in together on public transport – something seen as far more likely to spread Covid-19 than a relaxation of social distancing in an outdoor grandstand.
“ Silverstone has been selling tickets on the basis of being at capacity and the Telegraph has been told it is close to a sell-out.
“ Having lost millions of pounds last year by staging back-to-back grands prix behind closed doors, it is desperate to avoid another major shortfall by being forced to cap attendance next month. “
As usual, she is talking bullshit. Children have got it into their heads that all that matters in Year 11 is exams. Can’t think why, surely can’t be linked with OFSTED’s 20 year obsession with exam results. But, they also noted that when exams finished, they can always leave.
In case Spielman hasn’t noticed, on account of being very stupid, exams - those things the government falsely claimed weren’t going ahead - have now finished. Grades are finalised on Friday.
So year 11 see no point in coming back in. Heck, they saw little point in being in before. On one occasion, a maths teacher and I had to physically block a doorway to stop them walking out at the start of a lesson (not mine) that they had decided was pointless.
Furthermore, given large numbers of teachers trying to set their grades have become physically ill from overwork (that doesn’t include me, fed up though I am) they need a break.* Controlling a group who do not want to be there, have nothing to learn and what indeed simply not bother turning up anyway meaning vast wasted resources on chasing, is so stupid I’m surprised even a woman who can’t count to nine thought it a good idea.
What’s alarming about that story is not that she’s fucked up - she has after all reduced OFSTED to a laughing stock - but that she’s had her contract extended for two years, making it less likely somebody could turn this disaster around.
Said more eloquently here, albeit by someone I know and do not rate particularly highly:
https://www.tes.com/news/gcse-students-exams-so-ofsted-do-you-want-us-bring-year-11-back
* https://www.tes.com/magazine/article/are-schools-brink-burnout-crisis
Yes, of course certain people and industries are still badly affected by the remaining restrictions, but for most people they are a relatively minor inconvenience to their everyday lives.
Unemployment is the dog that hasn’t barked.
Thanks to furlough, really. Still around 10-15% of the workforce, I think.
We live in a Toquevellian tyranny of the majority. I’m alright Jack. With my triple lock pension and indexed final salary scheme. Or my well paid job with no commute costs now. My house with a garden. My wealth, family and memories already built.
There are a lot of people out there who think the same way. With the Tories now openly corrupt and donations flowing to the party from developers there is a valid line of opposition to take. I don't agree with the battle against HS2 then again they aren't building it near me...
In a normal year the exams finish mid May but at least Scottish schools only have 3-4 weeks to play with after the exams. In most schools kids are moved up a year to get a head start on their subsequent year's learning but it would be silly to pretend that there is the same urgency or commitment as there is in August when the new year starts in earnest. I have never really understood why English schools come off so late. It does seem more wasted time.
And indeed it’s not clear whether even going to September is enough for aviation. Sadly, I am exposed to that hence looking for another job.
In my profession it has almost disappeared now. Everyone is back at work whether from home where that is possible or more commonly the office.
"a middle class zoomocracy facing few risks to its material comfort"
"the great danger is that Britain will stumble into a Zero Covid strategy in desperate pursuit of herd immunity."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/14/isnt-delay-disastrous-trap-pm-country/
Let's hope it is a surprise loss at C&A.
You want to get off the pills that have been prescribed for blood pressure, blood sugar, cholererol etc so you present them with evidence that the measurements have improved. But they always counter that the improvements happened under medication and that just proves the value of the pills. The only way to come off them is to stop taking them and *then* demonstrate that the readings are satisfactory. The medics will not of course approve that course of action, so they make clear that on your own head be it. You have to take the bull by the horns. Same for the government vis à vis their advisors.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404687129259565056
The crucial bit of information being: "Boris really wants to go to India."
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1404688844138729473
Even if they're only an inconvenience for those sectors, its worth noting that 10% of all British jobs are in hospitality alone, plus millions more related to travel (may be some overlap there). Plus of course the number of people who use hospitality or travel will be even more than that.
However philosophically and more significantly we must never allow these restrictions to be considered "normalised" or "light" and something and something that we can just brush off the state getting involved in. Its not the state's place or state's right to be dictating the things that it is and to be considering it anything other than lockdown hands a power to the dead hand of the state that I'm not prepared to see it have indefinitely.
It may be a very light touch lockdown compared to earlier in the pandemic, or other nations elsewhere earlier in the pandemic, but the depths of pandemic or totalitarian regimes isn't what we should be setting as our baseline. Our normal life is the baseline and we must not allow the state to lose sight of that.
I don’t think there is anything intrinsically wrong about the PM speaking directly to the electorate on major issues provided that it is rapidly followed up with a discussion in parliament
Rejected by the borough council. Beaten down in legal challenges it then gets picked up by the town council to defend against. 625 houses. With a single access road. On a flood plain. Secretary of State overrules the objections yet again, permission granted over the heads of both councils and all the residents. £150k donation to the Tory Party from the developer follows just days later.
Fighting housing battles against stupid developments like this is not NIMBYism. And in the case of Ledbury Town Council its £100k+ costs are critically damaging to a council with a £500k budget. Either we stand up for democracy and the rights of people to vote for what happens in their community or we have dictatorship. The NPPF rides roughshod over everyone, unless the council are allowing sufficient planning developments then the developers win by default.
The whole purpose in local representatives is to be representative. That means standing up to the billionaire property developers with friends in high places. "We have a large majority, we can do what we want" is Hailsham's Elective Dictatorship brought to life.
That NIMBYism is popular is not a novel idea, doesn't mean it isn't completely evil and morally repugnant especially when you combine it with advocating for an open door allowing millions of extra people to migrate here but then deny them anywhere to live.
Since Boris was speaking first either way, I don't see him coming to Parliament within 24 hours to be held to account as being an unreasonable delay.
https://twitter.com/ropoem/status/1404549066827182090?s=21
If Boris wishes to announce things elsewhere first (and I understand there are very valid reasons for doing do) he needs to justify it to Parliament and really should have their prior agreement.
Once again its the politics of stupid by the clowncar government. If the media were any good they would be asking these rather basic questions.
It doesn't go frankly far enough, I'd have the developers win by default even if the Council are allowing "sufficient" planning developments, but even if you only want "sufficient" planning developments which is a piddly target then what's your alternative? Councils don't allow sufficient developments and developers still lose by default?
PS if developers always won by default then there'd be no reason for the Secretary of State to overrule anyone since it would be automatically approved before it even reached his desk. So it seems that what you're objecting to would prevent what you started your post complaining about, it is merely the fact that permission is valuable and hard to obtain that causes the risk of corruption.
The fact that you never do tells me that you prefer to smear from the shadows
So given that didn't happen either way, what difference does it make if Boris tells Parliament within 24 hours, or Hancock does so within 3 hours?
Well it's either that or they are even more useless at thinking about actual interesting stories than they should be - so they pick the only topic they understand (i.e. their own interests).
EDIT: Oops he is, I got him confused with David King for a second.
I’m still of the opinion that Parliament should hear these things first, but governments have of course been doing what they do for decades. At least the current Speaker genuinely demands respect, in stark contrast to his predecessor.
This is far from the whole middle class many of whom are sadly suffering greatly, but it is a substantial part of it.