Could Johnson be tempted to go for an early election – just after the new boundaries come into effec

System

Could Johnson be tempted to go for an early election – just after the new boundaries come into effect? – politicalbetting.com

In normal circumstances for this Parliament to run its full course means the next general election at the latest should take place in May 2024 – but could Johnson be tempted to go early?

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

1st

FrancisUrquhart

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

Mundo

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

tlg86

Completely off-topic, but the Memorial Tournament (golf) has been invaded by these:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cicada

Apparently they turn up every 17 years and make an almighty racket.

LostPassword

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

It's convention, but also it would be seen as unnecessary, and interfering with people's holidays. You could expect the media to be particularly hostile given the track record over Covid, but you also might worry about annoying "aspirational" voters and party volunteers.

MattW

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

Mundo

LostPassword said:

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

It's convention, but also it would be seen as unnecessary, and interfering with people's holidays. You could expect the media to be particularly hostile given the track record over Covid, but you also might worry about annoying "aspirational" voters and party volunteers.

Thanks - now I know!

Malmesbury

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

Yup



and

JohnLilburne

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

I never go on holiday in June, July or August. The traditional May slot for elections is more likely to find me out of the country. And as you can get a postal vote on demand, I'm not sure why it's a problem anyway.

Leon

One for moonshine


"Eric W. Davis, an astrophysicist who worked as a subcontractor and then a consultant for the Pentagon U.F.O. program since 2007, said that, in some cases, examination of the materials had so far failed to determine their source and led him to conclude, “We couldn’t make it ourselves".

"Mr. Davis, who now works for Aerospace Corporation, a defense contractor, said he gave a classified briefing to a Defense Department agency as recently as March about retrievals from “off-world vehicles not made on this earth.”"

The rumours that American forces ACTUALLY HAVE RETRIEVED PIECES OF ALIEN AIRCRAFT grow stronger

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/politics/pentagon-ufo-harry-reid-navy.html

LostPassword

I think it's worth remembering that the political standard in the UK is not to leave an election until the last moment - because who knows what might happen - but to hold the election earlier than the legal limit, unless the situation is dire and you are hoping something will happen to turn things around.

So I would think that if Johnson and Co. can keep all the plates spinning during the economic recovery from Covid, that they would certainly want to hold an election before 2024. Given Labour's problems, and the expected strong recovery in 2022, I would think that an election in 2023 was highly likely.

The only question is then whether to go for a traditional spring election date, or wait until the autumn. I think it's more likely to be the spring if it is in 2023. I don't think the boundaries are that large a factor. The timing in autumn can often be a bit awkward with the party conferences, and that then also creates the potential for election plans to be derailed, as in 2007. 4th May 2023.

Sunil_Prasannan

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

1945 was a July election.

ydoethur

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

1945 was a July election.

That was quite an unusual set of circumstances! Has there been a July or August election since then? Thatcher and Blair both went for June elections AIR.

Fishing

On topic - it's possible if the Tories are consistently 10-15 points ahead in early 2023, but even then I think it's highly unlikely given 2017.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

Nemtynakht

What date are the new boundaries going to be implemented? I can see that the report will go to the speaker on 1st July. I think if they are well ahead they might go in Spring 2023, which will leave the unwind for the following election.

I note from my reading that boundaries will automatically be adjusted every 8 years which I actually think is a good idea. I can't believe that the current seats were redrawn over 15 years ago.

Philip_Thompson

Absolutely makes sense to go once the new boundaries are in place if the polls are good and it won't really be early by then. Would be basically 4 years in.

1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 would be the precedents to follow of an election after four years. Not Theresa May's folly after two years.

darkage

Off topic, but toyota are now offering a 10 year/100,000 mile warranty with new cars sold in the UK. It is a 3 year warranty that is topped up every year if you carry on with main dealer servicing.

It is very clever. Firstly, it will inflate resale values, thus lowering the monthly payments on PCP deals. Secondly as more new cars are sold online and as part of third party lease deals it will move its dealer network in to servicing and used car sales, which will become more profitable and lucrative given the warranty. Finally, it is the best warranty going by a long way, and will reinforce the reputation of the brand for reliability as others have caught up with Toyota in recent years.

ydoethur

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Leon

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

"Covid: People in hospital with Indian variant not increasing significantly - NHS boss"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

GIN1138

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

Elections can take pace at any time of the year. Generally though if elections are happening outside of spring/early summer or October, it's a sign of crisis.

Although there's nothing to legally stop it I don't think we'll ever see an August election mainly because political journalists/the media would go crackers at having to give up their summer holiday's and would make it their mission to cause as much mischief as they could for the government lol!

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Setting a precedent of removing PhDs from idiots who attended the dump would see the dump removing thousands of PhDs, she's the thin end of the wedge.

Edit - This is my favourite story involving her.

Author Naomi Wolf Gets Duped Into Tweeting Out Fake Anti-Vaxxer Quote From Porn Star

https://www.mediaite.com/online/author-naomi-wolf-gets-duped-into-tweeting-out-fake-anti-vaxxer-quote-from-porn-star/

ydoethur

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

"Covid: People in hospital with Indian variant not increasing significantly - NHS boss"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

My instinctive answer is that if there was to be a major rise in hospitalisations among the vaxxed we would have seen it by now.

Equally, he has looked at the figures in detail throughout the pandemic and I haven't, having been quite busy trying to keep up with the latest batshit crazy rubbish the DfE and OFSTED have come up with to justify their worthless jobs keep education going.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Look up the story about LSE and Qaddafi PhD thing - as someone said "I hope they did it for the money. If they actually believed this stuff....".

As with all of British academia - They have their honour, their morals and their principles. And if you don't like those, they have others they can sell you.

GIN1138

On topic I'm convinced we'll have a 2023 general election. Boris wants to be seen as a "winner" along with Fatch and Blair who both liked to have their elections every four years

He'll go for it in 2023.

Thursday 1st/8th June 2023 would be my guess

AnExileinD4

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

Fantasy ego-driven wankfest “what can we do to own the Tories” Sage would keep us locked up forever. They are reprehensible human beings and are happily bringing their employers into disrepute. Not that they care.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Setting a precedent of removing PhDs from idiots who attended the dump would see the dump removing thousands of PhDs, she's the thin end of the wedge.

Edit - This is my favourite story involving her.

Author Naomi Wolf Gets Duped Into Tweeting Out Fake Anti-Vaxxer Quote From Porn Star

https://www.mediaite.com/online/author-naomi-wolf-gets-duped-into-tweeting-out-fake-anti-vaxxer-quote-from-porn-star/

I was once asked why I hadn't submitted a particular book to OUP (having worked for them on a few other things).

I answered that the series in question was dominated by DPhils from Oxford and therefore was full of works of very poor quality. I didn't want to damage my own reputation by being associated with it.

They really didn't like that answer, but it was the truth.

Fishing

FPT

Quincel said:

I think the UK winning the American Revolutionary War is a really interesting counter-factual. I find it hard to believe that the independence movement wouldn't have continued and the US eventually split off - but it may surely have been a couple of decades (or even more) later and perhaps led to a very different world.

Obviously possible, but didn't happen with Canada and Australia.

Another possibility is that the real centre - economic if not political - of the British Empire could have moved from London to New York or Philadelphia over the next century. That was the view of a distinguished history professor who lectured at my school many years ago.

ydoethur

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

Fantasy ego-driven wankfest “what can we do to own the Tories” Sage would keep us locked up forever. They are reprehensible human beings and are happily bringing their employers into disrepute. Not that they care.

Indie Sage writes this one down as a 'maybe.'

kle4

PMs don't seem to like to run out the clock unless they have no choice or think they will lose. On that basis an earlier election is nearly inevitable, since even if the polls close the Tories have a large buffer before they need to be truly worried.

AnExileinD4

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Forgery, plagiarism or just poor research? Any of those also reflect on her supervisor who will, as is usually the case, not assume any responsibility.

Malmesbury

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

"Covid: People in hospital with Indian variant not increasing significantly - NHS boss"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

As I've been pointing out since this uptick began, the evidence is pretty clear - no vaccine escape.

The main issue is getting full vaccination down to 40 as rapidly as possible.

dixiedean

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

ydoethur

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Forgery, plagiarism or just poor research? Any of those also reflect on her supervisor who will, as is usually the case, not assume any responsibility.

One was poor research (she didn't know what 'death recorded' meant) one was forgery (she claimed prosecutions for paedophilia were for sex acts were between adults).

Haven't heard any allegations of plagiarism. I would guess not, given she was deliberately putting forward a radical thesis.

dixiedean

GIN1138 said:

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

Elections can take pace at any time of the year. Generally though if elections are happening outside of spring/early summer or October, it's a sign of crisis.

Although there's nothing to legally stop it I don't think we'll ever see an August election mainly because political journalists/the media would go crackers at having to give up their summer holiday's and would make it their mission to cause as much mischief as they could for the government lol!

Weren't we informed solemnly, that we couldn't have a December one last time because reasons?

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

I wonder if they will withdraw the boundary so I join my neighbour in South Staffs?

If so, I'm standing as a candidate against Gavin Williamson. Not to win of course, because the people of South Staffs actually adore him (no, I don't know why either) but for shits and giggles.

Standing in Codsall Town Hall saying, 'it's not just that you're a traitor, Minister' would be immensely cathartic.

AnExileinD4

ydoethur said:

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

Fantasy ego-driven wankfest “what can we do to own the Tories” Sage would keep us locked up forever. They are reprehensible human beings and are happily bringing their employers into disrepute. Not that they care.

Indie Sage writes this one down as a 'maybe.'

They want power and no responsibility. They have no care of any of the second order consequences of their proposed actions. Yes, reprehensible. They of course will think themselves the good people.

Mundo

dixiedean said:

GIN1138 said:

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

Elections can take pace at any time of the year. Generally though if elections are happening outside of spring/early summer or October, it's a sign of crisis.

Although there's nothing to legally stop it I don't think we'll ever see an August election mainly because political journalists/the media would go crackers at having to give up their summer holiday's and would make it their mission to cause as much mischief as they could for the government lol!

Weren't we informed solemnly, that we couldn't have a December one last time because reasons?

Wisdom on here seems to be questionable PM, great campaigner - regardless of allegiance. Would not surprise me if he went left field again.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, a form of Indyref2 taking place in autumn 2023 might put the kibosh on an early election.

Has the legislation to repeal the FTPA been published passed?

Because restoring the royal prerogative might be a problem and giving all the power on calling elections to the PM might be equally problematic.

ydoethur

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

Fantasy ego-driven wankfest “what can we do to own the Tories” Sage would keep us locked up forever. They are reprehensible human beings and are happily bringing their employers into disrepute. Not that they care.

Indie Sage writes this one down as a 'maybe.'

They want power and no responsibility. They have no care of any of the second order consequences of their proposed actions. Yes, reprehensible. They of course will think themselves the good people.

The prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages...

AnExileinD4

ydoethur said:

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Forgery, plagiarism or just poor research? Any of those also reflect on her supervisor who will, as is usually the case, not assume any responsibility.

One was poor research (she didn't know what 'death recorded' meant) one was forgery (she claimed prosecutions for paedophilia were for sex acts were between adults).

Haven't heard any allegations of plagiarism. I would guess not, given she was deliberately putting forward a radical thesis.

Those weren’t her doctorate thesis though? That was a subsequent work eviscerated in public by Matthew Sweet on R4.

The publishers still published it though.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

I wonder if they will withdraw the boundary so I join my neighbour in South Staffs?

If so, I'm standing as a candidate against Gavin Williamson. Not to win of course, because the people of South Staffs actually adore him (no, I don't know why either) but for shits and giggles.

Standing in Codsall Town Hall saying, 'it's not just that you're a traitor, Minister' would be immensely cathartic.

You know that you don’t have to live in a constituency to contest it, don’t you?

dixiedean

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

I wonder if they will withdraw the boundary so I join my neighbour in South Staffs?

If so, I'm standing as a candidate against Gavin Williamson. Not to win of course, because the people of South Staffs actually adore him (no, I don't know why either) but for shits and giggles.

Standing in Codsall Town Hall saying, 'it's not just that you're a traitor, Minister' would be immensely cathartic.

Good grief. Williamson as your MP? May the heavens spare you.

ydoethur

Fishing said:

FPT

Quincel said:

I think the UK winning the American Revolutionary War is a really interesting counter-factual. I find it hard to believe that the independence movement wouldn't have continued and the US eventually split off - but it may surely have been a couple of decades (or even more) later and perhaps led to a very different world.

Obviously possible, but didn't happen with Canada and Australia.

Another possibility is that the real centre - economic if not political - of the British Empire could have moved from London to New York or Philadelphia over the next century. That was the view of a distinguished history professor who lectured at my school many years ago.

Slavery would have been abolished a lot earlier. That would have had profound implications for the development of the American economy from 1837 onwards. It's likely low wages and cotton would ahve been even more dominant than they were and industrialisation much slower.

GIN1138

dixiedean said:

GIN1138 said:

Mundo said:

Long time lurker, very occasional poster. Genuine question: Is it law or convention that prevents an election during Summer holidays? What would the likely effect be on student towns’ votes? Would largely left leaning votes be spread more thinly amongst home towns?

Elections can take pace at any time of the year. Generally though if elections are happening outside of spring/early summer or October, it's a sign of crisis.

Although there's nothing to legally stop it I don't think we'll ever see an August election mainly because political journalists/the media would go crackers at having to give up their summer holiday's and would make it their mission to cause as much mischief as they could for the government lol!

Weren't we informed solemnly, that we couldn't have a December one last time because reasons?

Yeah. I mean I never thought I'd live through a December election so never say never... I suppose its the circumstances that dictate (remember if Parliament hadn't been playing silly buggers the 2019 general election was supposed to be in October )

But I still think it'd be a brave politician that would upset the media's August shut down lol!

ydoethur

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

AnExileinD4 said:

ydoethur said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

I still think Oxford University has very difficult to answer over why they not only gave this person a PhD, but keep refusing to withdraw it despite having found evidence of widespread forgery in it and her increasingly bizarre positions on other issues. IT really does bring the university into disrepute.

Are they frightened of her because she's likely to play the gender card if her doctorate is withdrawn? It's the only reason that makes sense.

Forgery, plagiarism or just poor research? Any of those also reflect on her supervisor who will, as is usually the case, not assume any responsibility.

One was poor research (she didn't know what 'death recorded' meant) one was forgery (she claimed prosecutions for paedophilia were for sex acts were between adults).

Haven't heard any allegations of plagiarism. I would guess not, given she was deliberately putting forward a radical thesis.

Those weren’t her doctorate thesis though? That was a subsequent work eviscerated in public by Matthew Sweet on R4.

The publishers still published it though.

It was her thesis, yes, subsequently published as a book (as most theses are).

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

I wonder if they will withdraw the boundary so I join my neighbour in South Staffs?

If so, I'm standing as a candidate against Gavin Williamson. Not to win of course, because the people of South Staffs actually adore him (no, I don't know why either) but for shits and giggles.

Standing in Codsall Town Hall saying, 'it's not just that you're a traitor, Minister' would be immensely cathartic.

You know that you don’t have to live in a constituency to contest it, don’t you?

Good luck making that argument round here.

Leon

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

justin124

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

kle4

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

Always the way with boundaries, as criteria are sometimes mutually exclusive, particularly given the target numbers. Cross county ones seem to stir up the most anger, a few other anomalies people seem able to live with - one near me has major conurbations of a town included in a different seat for instance, presumably for numbers, and no one cared though they probably objected at the time.

TheScreamingEagles

Heh.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has the legislation to repeal the FTPA been published passed?

Because restoring the royal prerogative might be a problem and giving all the power on calling elections to the PM might be equally problematic.

Why? Tories have an 80 seat majority and repeal of FTPA was in the Con manifesto so the Lords can't do much?

Malmesbury

The average length of parliament's since 1922 is 1,327 days
The median is 1,458 days

justin124

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

May 2023 would be less than 3.5 years from the 2019 GE.

bigjohnowls

Disappointing to see a minimum Corporate tax rate of 15%

No major economies affected. Should have gone for 21%


Only one major economy is undercutting that

kle4

justin124 said:

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

That is a worry, as they do need updating (and the lack of parliamentary approval is welcome as a result, if unfortunate), and I hope he doesn't go down that route - we don't need an earlier election, whatever the future may bring.

Fishing

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

FPT

Quincel said:

I think the UK winning the American Revolutionary War is a really interesting counter-factual. I find it hard to believe that the independence movement wouldn't have continued and the US eventually split off - but it may surely have been a couple of decades (or even more) later and perhaps led to a very different world.

Obviously possible, but didn't happen with Canada and Australia.

Another possibility is that the real centre - economic if not political - of the British Empire could have moved from London to New York or Philadelphia over the next century. That was the view of a distinguished history professor who lectured at my school many years ago.

Slavery would have been abolished a lot earlier.

Not sure about that. There would have been much more colonial pressure to keep it, and many more slaves to emancipate, so compensation, already hugely expensive, might have been unaffordable. Of course we'll never know.

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has the legislation to repeal the FTPA been published passed?

Because restoring the royal prerogative might be a problem and giving all the power on calling elections to the PM might be equally problematic.

Why? Tories have an 80 seat majority and repeal of FTPA was in the Con manifesto so the Lords can't do much?

But it is the wording of the legislation that causes problems.

IIRC there's very few royal prerogatives that have been restored and the fact there were constraints on calling an early election.

So who will have the power, the monarch or the PM ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles

Foxy

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

"Covid: People in hospital with Indian variant not increasing significantly - NHS boss"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

Still only 19 in Leicester, far fewer than the peak at 499 in early Feb.

Wandering round the City centre today, apart from masks, it looked pretty much like a regular Saturday in the days BC. Street evangelists, Trotskyites, flirting teenagers, busy shops and cafes etc. It is hard to see much evidence of lockdown at all, let alone cruel totalitarianism.

geoffw

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

Will they have men only polling stations?

bigjohnowls

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

That is a worry, as they do need updating (and the lack of parliamentary approval is welcome as a result, if unfortunate), and I hope he doesn't go down that route - we don't need an earlier election, whatever the future may bring.

We definitely need one before a full 5 yr term December definitely bad month.

dixiedean

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

Always the way with boundaries, as criteria are sometimes mutually exclusive, particularly given the target numbers. Cross county ones seem to stir up the most anger, a few other anomalies people seem able to live with - one near me has major conurbations of a town included in a different seat for instance, presumably for numbers, and no one cared though they probably objected at the time.

You're Wiltshire? I presume you mean Chippenham, which is one of the most egregiously poor ones right now.
Expect more like that to fit the quotas.

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heh.

Suspended for being an idiot?! There are plenty of them on Twitter, not just her

Enough of this silencing. Let everyone speak, left or right, mad and sane, alien and human. Silencing voices is how Trump's lab leak theory was prohibited for a year, despite being quite probably true, even if a madman said it. So we were denied a hugely important likelihood, by Big Tech

We shouldn't just tax these bastards, we need to regulate them like utilities

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heh.

Suspended for being an idiot?! There are plenty of them on Twitter, not just her

Enough of this silencing. Let everyone speak, left or right, mad and sane, alien and human. Silencing voices is how Trump's lab leak theory was prohibited for a year, despite being quite probably true, even if a madman said it. So we were denied a hugely important likelihood, by Big Tech

We shouldn't just tax these bastards, we need to regulate them like utilities

More than an idiot, promoting idiotic antivax nonsense.

BluestBlue

Nah. Why would a government with a five-year mandate give up 30% of it out of conformity with a convention that isn't even a convention, since a term shorter than 4 years is in fact unusual for a majority government? Heath certainly didn't profit by it. Why - when failure to implement the new boundaries made the difference between a working majority and a hung parliament for Theresa May - would they not make certain that they were in place beforehand? What's the rush?

Spring 2024 at the earliest. For that matter, a December election had no disadvantages whatsoever last time and arguably blunted Labour's ground game advantage, so if it were up to me...

Leon

geoffw said:

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

Will they have men only polling stations?

Check the tweet. Kirklees Council has a Pride Rainbow flag in its logo, even as they pump out this sharia-compliant bilge

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has the legislation to repeal the FTPA been published passed?

Because restoring the royal prerogative might be a problem and giving all the power on calling elections to the PM might be equally problematic.

Why? Tories have an 80 seat majority and repeal of FTPA was in the Con manifesto so the Lords can't do much?

But it is the wording of the legislation that causes problems.

IIRC there's very few royal prerogatives that have been restored and the fact there were constraints on calling an early election.

So who will have the power, the monarch or the PM ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles

Putting conventions or prerogatives often governened by conventions into statute has itself been difficult (Philip Norton talks about the Sewel convention, even though he argues it wasn't a convention at all, but a procedure), so restoring them is likely even more so.

Yet given the big two at least, and possibly others, want to repeal the FTPA, the wording of the legislation doesn't seem an insurmountable problem as the principle of getting rid of the current situation is accepted.

Malmesbury

geoffw said:

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

Will they have men only polling stations?

Am I alone in wishing that someone identifying as a man rocks up at that clinic?

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

That is a worry, as they do need updating (and the lack of parliamentary approval is welcome as a result, if unfortunate), and I hope he doesn't go down that route - we don't need an earlier election, whatever the future may bring.

We definitely need one before a full 5 yr term December definitely bad month.

Until the FTPA is repealed I think in fact the full term will have to be only 4.5 years as the date will be set as May 2024?

bigjohnowls

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

That is a worry, as they do need updating (and the lack of parliamentary approval is welcome as a result, if unfortunate), and I hope he doesn't go down that route - we don't need an earlier election, whatever the future may bring.

We definitely need one before a full 5 yr term December definitely bad month.

Until the FTPA is repealed I think in fact the full term will have to be only 4.5 years as the date will be set as May 2024?

Ah good

kle4

dixiedean said:

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

Wouldn't consider anything after May 2023 to be "early".
A year before the end of the term is pretty standard.
Only the prospect of likely defeat makes anyone go longer.
New boundaries in July point to Autumn 2023 as the most likely timeframe.

Incidentally. Except controversy and some weird and wonderful new constituencies on Monday.
The criteria are so tight that keeping natural communities together will be much more difficult.
Nay impossible in some areas.

Always the way with boundaries, as criteria are sometimes mutually exclusive, particularly given the target numbers. Cross county ones seem to stir up the most anger, a few other anomalies people seem able to live with - one near me has major conurbations of a town included in a different seat for instance, presumably for numbers, and no one cared though they probably objected at the time.

You're Wiltshire? I presume you mean Chippenham, which is one of the most egregiously poor ones right now.
Expect more like that to fit the quotas.

You win a prize, sir.

justin124

BluestBlue said:

Nah. Why would a government with a five-year mandate give up 30% of it out of conformity with a convention that isn't even a convention, since a term shorter than 4 years is in fact unusual for a majority government? Heath certainly didn't profit by it. Why - when failure to implement the new boundaries made the difference between a working majority and a hung parliament for Theresa May - would they not make certain that they were in place beforehand? What's the rush?

Spring 2024 at the earliest. For that matter, a December election had no disadvantages whatsoever last time and arguably blunted Labour's ground game advantage, so if it were up to me...

Johnson did make two unsuccessful attempts to call the election for October 2019. Difficult to see it being any later than October 2024.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

The new boundaries are due to be submitted by July 2023. Parliamentary approval is no longer required. An Order In Council has to be made within four months of submission. Autumn 2023 appears to be earliest likely election date. We need to bear in mind though that the Tory success in Red Wall seats and NE Wales in 2019 means that they now hold rather more smaller constituencies than in in the past - so that the effect of the boundary review might be very marginal.There has to be a possibility,therefore, that Johnson would not wait for the Boundary Review - were the polling outlook favourable.

That is a worry, as they do need updating (and the lack of parliamentary approval is welcome as a result, if unfortunate), and I hope he doesn't go down that route - we don't need an earlier election, whatever the future may bring.

We definitely need one before a full 5 yr term December definitely bad month.

Until the FTPA is repealed I think in fact the full term will have to be only 4.5 years as the date will be set as May 2024?

Set as May 2024 but can be delayed until July 2024 if an event like Foot and Mouth happens again.

GIN1138

BluestBlue said:

Nah. Why would a government with a five-year mandate give up 30% of it out of conformity with a convention that isn't even a convention, since a term shorter than 4 years is in fact unusual for a majority government? Heath certainly didn't profit by it. Why - when failure to implement the new boundaries made the difference between a working majority and a hung parliament for Theresa May - would they not make certain that they were in place beforehand? What's the rush?

Spring 2024 at the earliest. For that matter, a December election had no disadvantages whatsoever last time and arguably blunted Labour's ground game advantage, so if it were up to me...

Heath was a loser

Blair and Thatcher were winners. And they went every four years.

We all know how Boris thinks

Leon

Foxy said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Good news and bad news on state of covid...

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1401217843878825996?s=19

I was speaking to an epidemiologist this morning, and he said that the reason to potentially be concerned was that hospitalisations tend to lag cases by about a fortnight. But he also thought unless there's significant vaccine escape there would be no reason to delay more than a fortnight to check, not the end of August as IndieSage are arguing for.

"Covid: People in hospital with Indian variant not increasing significantly - NHS boss"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849

Still only 19 in Leicester, far fewer than the peak at 499 in early Feb.

Wandering round the City centre today, apart from masks, it looked pretty much like a regular Saturday in the days BC. Street evangelists, Trotskyites, flirting teenagers, busy shops and cafes etc. It is hard to see much evidence of lockdown at all, let alone cruel totalitarianism.

Yes, same here in London. Camden feels normal. And not just normal: a normal, busy, festive, warm sunny Saturday evening in the summer. Lots of kids, pubs crowded, restaurants heaving, venues open (are they open? It seems so) the market insane with youthful life.

The only signs of Covid are masks and some short queues, otherwise proper big city life.

Excellent.

bigjohnowls

bigjohnowls said:

Disappointing to see a minimum Corporate tax rate of 15%

No major economies affected. Should have gone for 21%


Only one major economy is undercutting that

Corporation tax

52% - When Margaret Thatcher was elected in 1979

31% - When Tony Blair was elected in 1997

28% - When David Cameron was elected in 2010

19% - In 2021, before the Tories finally raised it back a little; opposed by SKS, for some idiotic reason.

williamglenn

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

Before getting banned, she was taking antivax lunacy to a whole new level.

PamelaW

I think it is most unfair that Repeal of FTPA will probably happen; I think it is an outdated practice that the sitting PM or Government may choose date of subsequent GE. I favour fixed terms of either 4 years or 5 years. If Repeal indeed happens, GE by December 2024; if Repeal does not happen GE by May 2024.

I am inclined to think GE either October 2023 or May 2024 mainly depending as always on polls and economy. If Tories get additional notional seats in Boundary Review ( very likely) which should receive Royal Assent in July 2023, then there will be only 3 months or 8 months for sorting out MPs wrangling over seats and perhaps having to find another seat.

Incidentally last time we had October election in 1974, Liberal Conference took place but Labour and Conservative Conferences did not. Perhaps another minor reason for May 2024?

Pamela

Malmesbury

williamglenn said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

Before getting banned, she was taking antivax lunacy to a whole new level.

It was a formation display team of Naomi jumping over sharks that were jumping over other sharks, while jumping over more sharks......

BluestBlue

GIN1138 said:

BluestBlue said:

Nah. Why would a government with a five-year mandate give up 30% of it out of conformity with a convention that isn't even a convention, since a term shorter than 4 years is in fact unusual for a majority government? Heath certainly didn't profit by it. Why - when failure to implement the new boundaries made the difference between a working majority and a hung parliament for Theresa May - would they not make certain that they were in place beforehand? What's the rush?

Spring 2024 at the earliest. For that matter, a December election had no disadvantages whatsoever last time and arguably blunted Labour's ground game advantage, so if it were up to me...

Heath was a loser

Blair and Thatcher were winners. And they went every four years.

We all know how Boris thinks

Big difference between 3.5 and 4 years. Thatcher never went a day short of four years, and Blair did so only in 2005, and then only by one month. There's no reason at all that the government should penalize itself just because it happened to win the last election in December. What's wrong with serving four-and-a-half out of five years?

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heh.

Suspended for being an idiot?! There are plenty of them on Twitter, not just her

Enough of this silencing. Let everyone speak, left or right, mad and sane, alien and human. Silencing voices is how Trump's lab leak theory was prohibited for a year, despite being quite probably true, even if a madman said it. So we were denied a hugely important likelihood, by Big Tech

We shouldn't just tax these bastards, we need to regulate them like utilities

More than an idiot, promoting idiotic antivax nonsense.

Hmm. That's a close call for me. Was she propounding the Bill Gate microchip bullshit? Fair enough. But just being antivax because you think its a government conspiracy or the vax is evil or it makes you sick... I dunno. It's an opinion.

An irrational and possibly dangerous opinion, but what if it turns out the vaccines DO make you sick, in five years time? It is not impossible. They are new technology in many cases: mRNA.

Cf the lab leak hypothesis. A "dangerous conspiracy theory" for a year, and banned from Facebook.... and yet now suddenly it's the most plausible explanation of the origins of Covid

Foxy

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

If it gets the rate up in an undervaxxed community then what is the problem, indeed may lead to a higher rate in the rest of the community.

kle4

PamelaW said:

I think it is most unfair that Repeal of FTPA will probably happen; I think it is an outdated practice that the sitting PM or Government may choose date of subsequent GE. I favour fixed terms of either 4 years or 5 years. If Repeal indeed happens, GE by December 2024; if Repeal does not happen GE by May 2024.

I am inclined to think GE either October 2023 or May 2024 mainly depending as always on polls and economy. If Tories get additional notional seats in Boundary Review ( very likely) which should receive Royal Assent in July 2023, then there will be only 3 months or 8 months for sorting out MPs wrangling over seats and perhaps having to find another seat.

Incidentally last time we had October election in 1974, Liberal Conference took place but Labour and Conservative Conferences did not. Perhaps another minor reason for May 2024?

Pamela

I favour fixed terms in general, and even could defend the arrangements of the FTPA for quite some time, but the farce of Autumn/Winter 2019 showed that it's a pointless bit of legislation, as even without using its provisions to call an early GE it's easily gotten round.

Leon

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

If it gets the rate up in an undervaxxed community then what is the problem, indeed may lead to a higher rate in the rest of the community.

But will they actually exclude women if women try to get jabbed at this clinic? That is just wrong.

kle4

BluestBlue said:

GIN1138 said:

BluestBlue said:

Nah. Why would a government with a five-year mandate give up 30% of it out of conformity with a convention that isn't even a convention, since a term shorter than 4 years is in fact unusual for a majority government? Heath certainly didn't profit by it. Why - when failure to implement the new boundaries made the difference between a working majority and a hung parliament for Theresa May - would they not make certain that they were in place beforehand? What's the rush?

Spring 2024 at the earliest. For that matter, a December election had no disadvantages whatsoever last time and arguably blunted Labour's ground game advantage, so if it were up to me...

Heath was a loser

Blair and Thatcher were winners. And they went every four years.

We all know how Boris thinks

Big difference between 3.5 and 4 years. Thatcher never went a day short of four years, and Blair did so only in 2005, and then only by one month. There's no reason at all that the government should penalize itself just because it happened to win the last election in December. What's wrong with serving four-and-a-half out of five years?

Given that's the case if there's no FTPA repeal, nothing really, although I'd prefer settled dates as a personal matter.

dixiedean

williamglenn said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

Before getting banned, she was taking antivax lunacy to a whole new level.

That's taking job creation schemes a little too far.

Stuartinromford

FPT:

Charles said:

Cocky_cockney said:

Charles said:

Cocky_cockney said:

"Hundreds of students missed out on a jab as UCL clinic 'ran out of supplies' (Daily Telegraph)."

As DavidL and I amongst others have pointed out, we have become shit on the vaccine rollout. The past month has been piss poor given the need to jab fast.

We should be jabbing 1 million a day. We're barely averaging 150,000 1st jabs. It's not good enough.

Typical Boris.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-nepal-variant-cases-vaccine-news/

Can you provide evidence of this massive stockpile of vaccines that are languishing unused?

You really can be an arse sometimes. Yet again you respond to a genuine issue with a side-show response, laced with facetiousness.

Three months ago we should have been piling on everything conceivable to ensure supplies ramp up. Foresight is part of leadership. Boris has neither.

Everything, everything, conceivable should have been done to ensure we jab a million a day.

Vaccinating 150,000 first jabs a day is quite simply not good enough.

This is piss poor oversight.

No. This simple fact is that we are in a supply constrained world. I’d love it if biological manufacturing was easy* but it’s fucking hard to do consistently, at scale and with high quality. You usually have years to optimise the process. For obvious reasons they haven’t this time. Three months is no time.

The issue has been the delays to Novavax (I’m sceptical of that company given the litany of disasters over the last 20 years) but @MaxPB knows the specifics there better than I do.

I know you hate Boris (and by the way there is going to be a big step towards opening on June 21st, although I suspect that WFH guidance and masks on public transport will remain) but try to not let your hatred overcome an analysis of the facts

Sure 1m a day would be great. But we don’t have the vaccines.

* actually I wouldn’t, but whatever

Now, part of the answer is that we don't really know what vaccines we have delivered, or what the mix is- because the government has kept the bulk of that information to themselves. That could be because the government has signed contracts that kept more of the delivery data under wraps, or it could be that the government is using access to data as a power move, or they like the current narrative and don't want it disturbed. Either way, there's nothing like the openness with data of the French; have a look at https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/ to see what they're releasing.

But there are scraps of data out there. Scotland has reported its weekly deliveries and they must surely be in proportion to population. There's some usage stats in the MHRA Yellow Card scheme. That sort of thing. Put those together, make some reasonable assumptions to fill in the gaps, check how your model works going forward... you can infer a lot about UK vaccine supply.

When I say "you can", I mean "someone has";
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood

Taking what he's worked out (and we can't really do better):
Next week should be good- over 4 million doses in total for the week. Remains to be seen if that is sustained.
There's an awful lot of doses somewhere between the factory and people's arms; getting on for 12 million. The Welsh vaccination stats show what is possible.

BluestBlue

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

MattW said:

That Naomi "it's the" Wolf tweet is quite good.

Before getting banned, she was taking antivax lunacy to a whole new level.

That's taking job creation a little too far.

Jobbie's a good 'un?

kle4

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

If it gets the rate up in an undervaxxed community then what is the problem, indeed may lead to a higher rate in the rest of the community.

Given the public health emergency for the nation as a whole is much reduced, questions of improper actions in the name of fighting Covid have more relevance. Is there so great a benefit to the nation to sacrifice principles at this present moment, if that is indeed what is occurring here?

It's like people being blase (frankly a bit too blase) about proper procurement of various matters in 2020, but if the same behaviour occurs now, that the pandemic is still officially ongoing would not make the same concern now be more biting.

Charles

Fishing said:

FPT

Quincel said:

I think the UK winning the American Revolutionary War is a really interesting counter-factual. I find it hard to believe that the independence movement wouldn't have continued and the US eventually split off - but it may surely have been a couple of decades (or even more) later and perhaps led to a very different world.

Obviously possible, but didn't happen with Canada and Australia.

Another possibility is that the real centre - economic if not political - of the British Empire could have moved from London to New York or Philadelphia over the next century. That was the view of a distinguished history professor who lectured at my school many years ago.

Although they wouldn’t have been able to buy Louisiana

darkage

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heh.

Suspended for being an idiot?! There are plenty of them on Twitter, not just her

Enough of this silencing. Let everyone speak, left or right, mad and sane, alien and human. Silencing voices is how Trump's lab leak theory was prohibited for a year, despite being quite probably true, even if a madman said it. So we were denied a hugely important likelihood, by Big Tech

We shouldn't just tax these bastards, we need to regulate them like utilities

The problem is that there is a distinction between free speech and the freedom to broadcast.

Free speech was the basis of our culture with certain well defined limits, but we moved away from that to the point where in my opinion it doesn't really exist anymore. It is very easy to stray in to hate speech of one sort or another, or discrimination; particularly as what is offensive speech is defined by the perceptions of the 'victim', there are no clear rules. People fail to realise this and wrongly believe that they have free speech: they used to, but don't any more.

Free speech is a good thing, and it should be restored: All the offensive legislation should be removed as an urgent priority.

However the issue of being free to broadcast to 5 billion people around the world on the internet on twitter is something we simply haven't worked out how to control or regulate. There should be some limits on it.

Leon

Move along, nothing to see here


"According to documents obtained by The Weekend Australian, Zhou Yusen, a respected military scientist for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) who collaborated with the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and American experts, submitted a patent for a Covid-19 vaccine on 24 February last year.

"The scientist later died under mysterious circumstances in May 2020.

"Despite Zhou’s status as an award-winning military scientist, there were no reports or tributes, with him only being labelled as “dead” in a Chinese media item from July and a scientific publication from December last year.

"However, the report revealed that the patent, filed by the PLA’s Institute of Military Medicine, was lodged just five weeks after China acknowledged human-to-human transmission of the novel virus.

"Professor Nikolai Petrovsky from Flinders University told the paper: “This is something we have never seen achieved before, raising the question of whether this work may have started much ­earlier”."

https://in.news.yahoo.com/chinese-military-scientist-filed-patent-082549951.html


This is the thesis that US intel-linked journalist posted last night. The Chinese had a vaccine ready to go, very quickly. As you would if you had been bio-engineering this virus for a year or two

Stark_Dawning

The fixed-term parliament act really needs to be strengthened. My preference would be that an early election can only be called when every single MP agrees to it. That would get rid of the ludicrous situation whereby the LOTO feels compelled to agree to an early dissolution simply to look macho - not because he believes it will do him or the country any good. If unanimity is required then he can save face and still prevent the PM playing silly beggars by getting an obscure backbencher to veto it. What's the problem with that?

Fishing

Charles said:

Fishing said:

FPT

Quincel said:

I think the UK winning the American Revolutionary War is a really interesting counter-factual. I find it hard to believe that the independence movement wouldn't have continued and the US eventually split off - but it may surely have been a couple of decades (or even more) later and perhaps led to a very different world.

Obviously possible, but didn't happen with Canada and Australia.

Another possibility is that the real centre - economic if not political - of the British Empire could have moved from London to New York or Philadelphia over the next century. That was the view of a distinguished history professor who lectured at my school many years ago.

Although they wouldn’t have been able to buy Louisiana

No they would have just taken it from Napoleon, as many Americans urged at the time.

Big_G_NorthWales

I do not usually post trivial but this amused me

Prince Harry and Megan have been demoted below Prince Andrew by the Palace

Leon

darkage said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Heh.

Suspended for being an idiot?! There are plenty of them on Twitter, not just her

Enough of this silencing. Let everyone speak, left or right, mad and sane, alien and human. Silencing voices is how Trump's lab leak theory was prohibited for a year, despite being quite probably true, even if a madman said it. So we were denied a hugely important likelihood, by Big Tech

We shouldn't just tax these bastards, we need to regulate them like utilities

The problem is that there is a distinction between free speech and the freedom to broadcast.

Free speech was the basis of our culture with certain well defined limits, but we moved away from that to the point where in my opinion it doesn't really exist anymore. It is very easy to stray in to hate speech of one sort or another, or discrimination; particularly as what is offensive speech is defined by the perceptions of the 'victim', there are no clear rules. People fail to realise this and wrongly believe that they have free speech: they used to, but don't any more.

Free speech is a good thing, and it should be restored: All the offensive legislation should be removed as an urgent priority.

However the issue of being free to broadcast to 5 billion people around the world on the internet on twitter is something we simply haven't worked out how to control or regulate. There should be some limits on it.

Yes, that's fair

Big_G_NorthWales

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1401258489046048771?s=19

Foxy

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Men only vaccine clinics in Batley

Kirklees Council
@KirkleesCouncil
·
6h
There’s a men only COVID-19 pop up vaccination clinic at Jame Masjid, Henry Street, Batley, WF17 6JJ this evening .

Come along 6-10pm to get your jab
@CuroHealth


https://twitter.com/KirkleesCouncil/status/1401150613157777410?s=20

If it gets the rate up in an undervaxxed community then what is the problem, indeed may lead to a higher rate in the rest of the community.

But will they actually exclude women if women try to get jabbed at this clinic? That is just wrong.

Book them elsewhere. Requesting healthcare from one or other gender is a fairly regular request, and not an unreasonable one, though not possible in all settings.

Many women request this, but there are circumstances where men do too.

Cocky_cockney

Assuming Charles' comment below was a reply to me, this is not simply about a problem with Novavax. There are a number of other vaccines suppliers including J&J and Moderna to go on top of our excellent AZN and Pfizer approved drugs.

But if Germany can jab 1 million a day so can we. Period. We took our eye off the ball because we assumed that by 1st jabbing the over 50's & vulnerable we were safe, and so it looked until a) new variants esp the Indian one were more adept at body-swerving the vaccines and b) the interval rate between 1st and 2nd jabs, far from being a success story, now looks like a cock-up.

We got complacent. Classic Boris. Absolutely classic.

We should have gone full pelt on vaccination and ramped it up, piling in everything in our powers to jab, jab and jab.

This is not just about factory supplies. We have large stockpiles of vaccines. It's about a failure to see through what we began on a sufficiently epic scale. We could and should be offering 24/7 vaccinations at every university town. Why? Because every Uni student I know would be perfectly happy to roll up their sleeve at 2 am for a jab. But we didn't do this because we didn't think it was necessary.

Boris has been caught with his pants down. Yet again.

geoffw

While everyone is applauding the G7 proposal on corporation tax I find it slightly sinister. Tax harmonisation on stilts. It is a denial of tax sovereignty, all to get tax revenue from the FAANGs of this world. It would be quite proper in my opinion for a country to demur altogether from taxing corporations and choose instead to raise revenue by direct taxation only on individuals. In fact there are many countries that do not have corporation tax according to Wiki. How are they not obvious candidates for loopholes in this scheme?