I would abolish the current Decision Review System which involves the players. I'd just use it for absolute howlers — such as a batsman getting a big edge on a ball and being given out LBW — and it would be the job of the third umpire to inform the onfield players that they'd made a big mistake so they could recall the batsman in question. It wouldn't involve the players.
Disappointing result for the GOP overnight in the New Mexico special election. They didn't manage to dent the Democratic lead in the district compared to last year.
“We don’t want children doing Maths at five and six in the evening”
Shadow education secretary Kate Green tells #BBCBreakfast Labour would keep schools open for longer but not for formal education as government announces £1.4bn catch-up plan in England.
I was often in school until 5pm doing work, then going home to do homework.
You want kids to have the best education, then they need to work for it.
People say a lot of difference between kids who do well and kids who don't is homelife.
I've always thought the biggest difference is kids who have books at home and read them for leisure, versus kids who don't.
My daughter this year has reached the point that she can read novels by herself and we've bought a boxed set of a novel series she loves and when she's not been outside in the sunshine this halftime she's been frequently been reading. She's got quite a library developing and we've decided on the next ones we're planning on getting for her. Her reading has come on leaps and bounds and so has her confidence at school as a result.
The novels she's reading have nothing to do with the curriculum but frankly it doesn't matter what you're reading, its the fact that you are. Anyone who gets bitten by reading bug early on and is supported on that (either by libraries or books at home) is going to have a tremendous advantage over kids who never read except when they're told they must at school.
I'm always horrified by non-reading houses. Where do they get their knowledge of the wider world from? I regard my wife and I as eclectic - she loves fantasy and sci-fi, I prefer history, with some of the more martial historical fiction and a bit of sci-fi and science tucked in for good measure. We have thousands of books, including such topics as gardening, crafts, cooking etc. I personally own 40+ books on knitting. My childhood reading was Enid Blyton then Dr Who novelisations then Terry Pratchett. There is more truth and social commentary in Terry Pratchett than in a years supply of the British newspaper columns.
Terry Pratchett (like Douglas Adams) is not an easy read for a kid.
I think you probably need to get to the mid-teens to really appreciate them. (Although audio books can help: my 13 year old thought Going Postal was one of the funniest books she's ever heard.)
My childhood reading included Agatha Christie as my grandmother had a large collection of her books. I have discovered an advantage of reading them that early is I can read them again now with little memory of who the murderers are.
Ha ha, me too. I still have the collection of green and white penguin books somewhere (although they have a tendency to fall apart). I was told not to mention this by a teacher at school and to read Dorothy Sayers instead, if I must read crime novels.
I've been doing Terry Pratchett with my eldest daughter. We started with the Tiffany Aching series when she was about 8, and she loved them - though some of the themes were a bit more adult than I had remembered! She's now eleven and we've moved on to the more adult books - which again are just slightly more adult than I had remembered. But there's a lot to stop and talk about and explain the jokes, and the refelections of history and geography and the general themes and where the plot is going. She's off to senior school next year and I doubt I'll be reading to her for much longer, and I don't think her younger sisters will be as interested. But it's a nice series to finish on. Hopefully she'll then pick them up herself.
My daughter absolutely loved the Lemony Snicket books and we had enormous fun reading them together. They have a similar humour without the adult element and they greatly increased her vocabulary. We both still remember those times fondly and she is an enthusiastic reader to this day.
It’s a thought, but this is only the second first class match James Bracey has played in where Chris Dent hasn’t been his captain (the first being a match for England A under Keaton Jennings).
Must be quite a culture shock. Especially since Chris Dent is acknowledged as one of the sharpest captains in cricket around the world and Root with the best will in the world, isn’t.
Surprised Dumfries and Galloway is so low though. That’s a lovely area and as I recall it’s got decent road and rail links to Glasgow, Edinburgh and London.
Zero Covidians will be all over the media tomorrow.
Well, in fairness that goes beyond exponential growth since yesterday: it is an infinite expansion.
More seriously on cases, it looks like doubling time is a bit over two weeks. Obviously we need to see how that is effecting hospitalizations.
The number of hospitalisations is still up 17% which is not much less than the 20% we have been averaging of late. It is why the failure to accelerate our vaccinations is so disappointing. We need to protect more and more of us until hospitalisations are falling once again and we need it before the 21st.
The England data is more up to date (they have hospitalisations to Sunday). The latest daily figure is 80 and over the last 14 days has bounced between 69 and 98.
From playing with the England data I make the latest 7 day average 86.4 compared to 84.6 a week ago. So an increase of about 2%.
Yes, hospitalisations have been extremely steady under fire. We're past the point where we would see any unlockdown effect from May 17th feeding through into the hospital numbers but the number of people in hospital has been steady and so has the number of people turning up at hospital. In addition there are loads of anecdotal reports from doctors that case severity is way down as the people being hospitalised are younger on average due to vaccine non-availability for under 40s until three weeks ago while the older people coming in are largely unvaccinated by choice.
If we saw this data with a split of vaccinated and unvaccinated it would end all of the arguments once and for all. I really hope whatever presentation is coming next has got the case, hospitalisation and death data split by vaccinated + 3 weeks and unvaccinated.
“We don’t want children doing Maths at five and six in the evening”
Shadow education secretary Kate Green tells #BBCBreakfast Labour would keep schools open for longer but not for formal education as government announces £1.4bn catch-up plan in England.
I was often in school until 5pm doing work, then going home to do homework.
You want kids to have the best education, then they need to work for it.
I always did my homework between 4 and 5 (until it got more than I could do in an hour). I think there are issues with keeping kids engaged though. I hate lecture slots late in the day and that is for students, let alone school kids. I got my worst ever feedback for a set of tutorials starting at 3.15 on friday afternoons - I was the last thing keeping them from the bar...
I used to teach advocacy to Diploma students between 6 and 8 on a Thursday night. Some of the classes were better than others. I still remember telling one particular group that I was a representative of a potential employer if they were looking for a traineeship and I wouldn't employ any of them. That seemed to genuinely shock them and things improved but it was never easy.
I would hope that, as students learning Advocacy, they immediately put it to you that any group-wide inadequacy must have been due to the failings of the teacher.
LOL, no they didn't but maybe they should have done.
I found teaching an interesting study in group dynamics. Some classes were conscientious almost to a fault, driven and demanding. Some were pretty rebellious and unruly like the group in question. What I found interesting was that you could tell the group psychology within half an hour of the first class and it rarely changed. It was also extremely rare for anyone to step outside the group consensus either by being lazy if they were diligent or diligent when they were being lazy. I don't know if this is a consequence of our University system but there was very little individuality. When you considered that these were the court lawyers of the future it troubled me.
Just for clarity, how old were the embryo advocates, please?
It was a post graduate diploma so most would have been 22 or so with the odd smattering of "mature" students.
Thanks. Oh! How extraordinary. In recent years too, I presume.
Its more than 20 years ago now because I had to give it up when I came to the bar. Don't drink and teach.
Well, not at the same time anyway.
Unless you’re at Denstone College, which famously had a bar in the staff room.
French schools had (and for all I know still have) wine for the teachers’ tables in the canteen.
“We don’t want children doing Maths at five and six in the evening”
Shadow education secretary Kate Green tells #BBCBreakfast Labour would keep schools open for longer but not for formal education as government announces £1.4bn catch-up plan in England.
I was often in school until 5pm doing work, then going home to do homework.
You want kids to have the best education, then they need to work for it.
People say a lot of difference between kids who do well and kids who don't is homelife.
I've always thought the biggest difference is kids who have books at home and read them for leisure, versus kids who don't.
My daughter this year has reached the point that she can read novels by herself and we've bought a boxed set of a novel series she loves and when she's not been outside in the sunshine this halftime she's been frequently been reading. She's got quite a library developing and we've decided on the next ones we're planning on getting for her. Her reading has come on leaps and bounds and so has her confidence at school as a result.
The novels she's reading have nothing to do with the curriculum but frankly it doesn't matter what you're reading, its the fact that you are. Anyone who gets bitten by reading bug early on and is supported on that (either by libraries or books at home) is going to have a tremendous advantage over kids who never read except when they're told they must at school.
I'm always horrified by non-reading houses. Where do they get their knowledge of the wider world from? I regard my wife and I as eclectic - she loves fantasy and sci-fi, I prefer history, with some of the more martial historical fiction and a bit of sci-fi and science tucked in for good measure. We have thousands of books, including such topics as gardening, crafts, cooking etc. I personally own 40+ books on knitting. My childhood reading was Enid Blyton then Dr Who novelisations then Terry Pratchett. There is more truth and social commentary in Terry Pratchett than in a years supply of the British newspaper columns.
Terry Pratchett (like Douglas Adams) is not an easy read for a kid.
I think you probably need to get to the mid-teens to really appreciate them. (Although audio books can help: my 13 year old thought Going Postal was one of the funniest books she's ever heard.)
My childhood reading included Agatha Christie as my grandmother had a large collection of her books. I have discovered an advantage of reading them that early is I can read them again now with little memory of who the murderers are.
Yes, me too. It was a distinctly non-teenage oeuvre, but I lapped them up.
I then moved on to her collection on Modesty Blaise books. I learned a lot from those...
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
Zero Covidians will be all over the media tomorrow.
Well, in fairness that goes beyond exponential growth since yesterday: it is an infinite expansion.
More seriously on cases, it looks like doubling time is a bit over two weeks. Obviously we need to see how that is effecting hospitalizations.
The number of hospitalisations is still up 17% which is not much less than the 20% we have been averaging of late. It is why the failure to accelerate our vaccinations is so disappointing. We need to protect more and more of us until hospitalisations are falling once again and we need it before the 21st.
The England data is more up to date (they have hospitalisations to Sunday). The latest daily figure is 80 and over the last 14 days has bounced between 69 and 98.
From playing with the England data I make the latest 7 day average 86.4 compared to 84.6 a week ago. So an increase of about 2%.
If this continues for just another 23 years, we could see the NHS overwhelmed!
Disappointing result for the GOP overnight in the New Mexico special election. They didn't manage to dent the Democratic lead in the district compared to last year.
Message of the Republican in NM CD1 was TOTALLY focused around one issue: crime in general, and linking the Democrat to "defund the police". Note that this same strategy is being prepared in races across the nation, for example against incumbent Democrat Dr. Kim Schrier in WA CD08, in swing districts in 2022.
It did NOT work in Albuquerque, which has a serious crime problem BUT was just too tough (and left) a nut to crack for the GOP. Does suggest that, at present any rate, Republicans simply do NOT have any other issue giving them traction with suburban voters - the kind of folks who USED to be reliable GOPers. But whom have been trending toward the Democrats in recent years - a trend exacerbated by You-Know-Who, and perhaps the chief reason for his defeat in 2020.
Addendum - Certainly helped the Democrats in NM CD1 that they were still smarting from getting totally skunked out of the special election runoff in Texas CD06 last month in burbs & exurbs of Forth Worth, despite the fact it was also a mostly suburban district (albeit one more conservative in recent voting that Albuquerque). So they put a LOT of money & resources (such as visits by Jill Biden & VP's husband) and beat the Republican challenge down, in a seat held by Dems since 2008.
Zero Covidians will be all over the media tomorrow.
Well, in fairness that goes beyond exponential growth since yesterday: it is an infinite expansion.
More seriously on cases, it looks like doubling time is a bit over two weeks. Obviously we need to see how that is effecting hospitalizations.
The number of hospitalisations is still up 17% which is not much less than the 20% we have been averaging of late. It is why the failure to accelerate our vaccinations is so disappointing. We need to protect more and more of us until hospitalisations are falling once again and we need it before the 21st.
I think we need to be careful about who is being hospitalized. It may be those who for whatever reason have not been vaccinated despite being eligible. In which case the acceleration or not is irrelevant.
In England only the number in hospital has grown from the trough of 745 to 776 on 2nd June. Thats an increase of around 4%. The England only admissions are not really changing - hovering around 80 a day. By contrast in Scotland in hospital has gone from 61 at the trough to 106 today, an increase of 77%.
People need to pay attention to details. For all the stress about Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford, there is no significant increase in those in hospital in England, but there is in Scotland.
It might be sensible to slow down the program in the rest of the UK and divert Vaccines to Scotland?
It of course possible that by the time we do that and the Jabs have time to take effect that Scotland is doing better and the rest of the UK worse, considering we are so close to having everybody jabbed anyway it would seem like the right thing to do to me.
The commentators keep talking about not being able to play Mark Wood as part of a three seam one spin attack. I don't remember that being a problem for Brett Lee.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
The commentators keep talking about not being able to play Mark Wood as part of a three seam one spin attack. I don't remember that being a problem for Brett Lee.
Brett Lee after a (very!) fast start wasn’t that dangerous a bowler. Partly because Steve Waugh overbowled him.
Zero Covidians will be all over the media tomorrow.
Well, in fairness that goes beyond exponential growth since yesterday: it is an infinite expansion.
More seriously on cases, it looks like doubling time is a bit over two weeks. Obviously we need to see how that is effecting hospitalizations.
The number of hospitalisations is still up 17% which is not much less than the 20% we have been averaging of late. It is why the failure to accelerate our vaccinations is so disappointing. We need to protect more and more of us until hospitalisations are falling once again and we need it before the 21st.
I think we need to be careful about who is being hospitalized. It may be those who for whatever reason have not been vaccinated despite being eligible. In which case the acceleration or not is irrelevant.
In England only the number in hospital has grown from the trough of 745 to 776 on 2nd June. Thats an increase of around 4%. The England only admissions are not really changing - hovering around 80 a day. By contrast in Scotland in hospital has gone from 61 at the trough to 106 today, an increase of 77%.
People need to pay attention to details. For all the stress about Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford, there is no significant increase in those in hospital in England, but there is in Scotland.
It might be sensible to slow down the program in the rest of the UK and divert Vaccines to Scotland?
It of course possible that by the time we do that and the Jabs have time to take effect that Scotland is doing better and the rest of the UK worse, considering we are so close to having everybody jabbed anyway it would seem like the right thing to do to me.
The point for me is this - its up to the Scottish Government what to do about Covid in Scotland. The increase in hospitals across the UK is not happening in England, so cases in B, B and B etc are not causing a surge in hospitals in England. So any of the doom-sayers need to be presented with this when they next try to throw the 21st June relaxation out.
The commentators keep talking about not being able to play Mark Wood as part of a three seam one spin attack. I don't remember that being a problem for Brett Lee.
Brett Lee after a (very!) fast start wasn’t that dangerous a bowler. Partly because Steve Waugh overbowled him.
I haven't watched the Starmer interview - and probably won't because I'd have to see Morgan - but from write ups it sounds similar to his Desert Island Discs appearance. If so, good, because that was excellent.
But the million dollar question is to what extent "Boris" Johnson has changed the game. Do you now need to create a facetious comic persona in order to be PM material?
One hopes not, if one has an interest in the health of our democracy, but one can't be sure of this if one is honest. The Johnson brand is insidious. It's affecting people's synapses, some of them perfectly decent people.
The next year will tell us a lot and is so so important. I just can't emphasize enough how important this next year is going to be. It could go either way.
The next year - one of a glorious return to freedom and economic revival - will be won by the leader who can best project sunny optimism and confidence in our national resurgence, so Sir Keir ... is probably screwed.
If there is a turn of the tide - as I think on balance there will be - one of the biggest boons is we'll get to see a different side of you. In place of remorseless overconfidence and ebullience will come doubt and introspection, and I sense a touch of endearing vulnerability.
I rather doubt it. My confidence didn't waver in the darkest days of the pandemic when we had no vaccines, little hope, and no end in sight - a uniquely dire political environment for the incumbent in which the Opposition managed to, er, momentarily draw level in the polling averages. Having scrambled out of that particular abyss, it's nothing more than potholes from here on out...
Ok, but let's agree you won't pretend to be feeling great about things when you aren't. If the black dog barks, let me know about it. Deal?
I sense we are due another thread header entitled ' Imagine Labour with a 10 point poll lead ' - with everyone encouraged to share their joy. In the absence of said lead it's about the only pro-Starmer angle yet to be covered.
Yes, good idea. I'll get cracking on that. People other than Johnson fanbois and Tory partisans need and deserve a booster shot.
Well, there's a great new Owen Jones video for you to enjoy, to which I've started to occasionally dip in on your recommendation:
He has a nice chat with a card-carrying Communist in the second half, but the first part with the Cicero-quoting James Butler was even better, especially the 30-35 minute segment:
OJ: When the lockdown was going to happen, they were going on about how you can't shut down the schools, you can't shut down the schools... I mean imbeciles, absolute stupid imbeciles... they've let the Government get away with it. What on Earth do you think Labour were thinking all the way through, and do you think it's now just ended in a situation where ... 'cos I think the Captain Hindsight attack line, I think it's got, they'd got a point...
JB: It's extremely effective.
Y'know, I've always said that Owen had valuable insights to offer from time to time...
Well you've picked a line of his to suit there - which is fair enough - but he is generally doing some good stuff. Especially so when you consider the volume of output. Day after day it's another fizzy OpEd or polemical video or a fresh interview with somebody interesting. A conveyor belt of product and yet the quality rarely drops. It reminds me of Friends.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
Except that Bolton is actually an example of the efficacy of vaccinations. Despite having below average rates of vaccine coverage, it's still weathered the storm of this supposedly terrifying Indian variant rather well. Peak caseload now appears to have passed, yet there are a fraction of the number of patients in the local hospital that there were during the November and January peaks; most of those being hospitalised are amongst the unvaccinated; it has been at least strongly hinted at that the typical Covid patient being admitted in Bolton is less ill than in previous waves, i.e. more marginal cases are being brought in for a couple of days' oxygen therapy and a few dexamethasone tablets, and then packed off again; and very few people indeed are dying of the Plague. And all this in what was the worst affected local authority area in the country.
IIRC, the local health officials in its successor to that position, Blackburn, think they're only about 7-10 days behind Bolton, their local hospital trust is in a better place even than Bolton's with respect to Covid admissions, and the profile of the infected is heavily skewed towards younger and less vulnerable age groups.
There's simply nothing in any of this to suggest that we are on the brink of a repetition of the Kent variant catastrophe. The weather is doubtless helping, but the main reason is the vaccines. They're working in Bolton, and in Blackburn, and everywhere else.
The commentators keep talking about not being able to play Mark Wood as part of a three seam one spin attack. I don't remember that being a problem for Brett Lee.
Brett Lee after a (very!) fast start wasn’t that dangerous a bowler. Partly because Steve Waugh overbowled him.
Unless you were Piers Morgan, of course
Lol...what a dick....I have faced high 80s, and even at the time playing high level cricket, I absolutely didn't fancy 0.0001 mph more, let alone 95+..
The commentators keep talking about not being able to play Mark Wood as part of a three seam one spin attack. I don't remember that being a problem for Brett Lee.
Brett Lee after a (very!) fast start wasn’t that dangerous a bowler. Partly because Steve Waugh overbowled him.
Unless you were Piers Morgan, of course
Lol...what a dick....I have faced high 80s, and even at the time playing high level cricket, I absolutely didn't fancy 0.0001 mph more, let alone 95+..
And the fact that Lee was bowling mahoosive no balls.
“We don’t want children doing Maths at five and six in the evening”
Shadow education secretary Kate Green tells #BBCBreakfast Labour would keep schools open for longer but not for formal education as government announces £1.4bn catch-up plan in England.
I was often in school until 5pm doing work, then going home to do homework.
You want kids to have the best education, then they need to work for it.
People say a lot of difference between kids who do well and kids who don't is homelife.
I've always thought the biggest difference is kids who have books at home and read them for leisure, versus kids who don't.
My daughter this year has reached the point that she can read novels by herself and we've bought a boxed set of a novel series she loves and when she's not been outside in the sunshine this halftime she's been frequently been reading. She's got quite a library developing and we've decided on the next ones we're planning on getting for her. Her reading has come on leaps and bounds and so has her confidence at school as a result.
The novels she's reading have nothing to do with the curriculum but frankly it doesn't matter what you're reading, its the fact that you are. Anyone who gets bitten by reading bug early on and is supported on that (either by libraries or books at home) is going to have a tremendous advantage over kids who never read except when they're told they must at school.
I'm always horrified by non-reading houses. Where do they get their knowledge of the wider world from? I regard my wife and I as eclectic - she loves fantasy and sci-fi, I prefer history, with some of the more martial historical fiction and a bit of sci-fi and science tucked in for good measure. We have thousands of books, including such topics as gardening, crafts, cooking etc. I personally own 40+ books on knitting. My childhood reading was Enid Blyton then Dr Who novelisations then Terry Pratchett. There is more truth and social commentary in Terry Pratchett than in a years supply of the British newspaper columns.
Terry Pratchett (like Douglas Adams) is not an easy read for a kid.
I think you probably need to get to the mid-teens to really appreciate them. (Although audio books can help: my 13 year old thought Going Postal was one of the funniest books she's ever heard.)
My childhood reading included Agatha Christie as my grandmother had a large collection of her books. I have discovered an advantage of reading them that early is I can read them again now with little memory of who the murderers are.
Ha ha, me too. I still have the collection of green and white penguin books somewhere (although they have a tendency to fall apart). I was told not to mention this by a teacher at school and to read Dorothy Sayers instead, if I must read crime novels.
I've been doing Terry Pratchett with my eldest daughter. We started with the Tiffany Aching series when she was about 8, and she loved them - though some of the themes were a bit more adult than I had remembered! She's now eleven and we've moved on to the more adult books - which again are just slightly more adult than I had remembered. But there's a lot to stop and talk about and explain the jokes, and the refelections of history and geography and the general themes and where the plot is going. She's off to senior school next year and I doubt I'll be reading to her for much longer, and I don't think her younger sisters will be as interested. But it's a nice series to finish on. Hopefully she'll then pick them up herself.
My daughter absolutely loved the Lemony Snicket books and we had enormous fun reading them together. They have a similar humour without the adult element and they greatly increased her vocabulary. We both still remember those times fondly and she is an enthusiastic reader to this day.
Terry Pratchett actually did a whole series of children's stories, before he started writing Discworld. Really good too. I've got two compendiums of them which I got for my first and second Father's Days. Dragons at Crumbling Castle is the name of the first.
Its funny because some of them you get distinctive themes and tones that would later be found in the Discworld books so its interesting reading them to the kids, knowing what he wrote later and that he'd written this decades earlier.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Weird thought:
I make it two England players and four Kiwis who have played in both matches.
Root and Wood for us, Williamson, Taylor, de Grandhomme and Santner for them.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Well, as @rcs1000 has pointed out before, we have the "Indian variant" here in the US too, but absolutely no-one is wetting themselves about it. Here in New York, the mask mandate was effectively lifted two weeks ago, and our case numbers continue to decline. The (Western) vaccines work. End of story.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Am I missing something? Why would it matter in a Test match?
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Well, as @rcs1000 has pointed out before, we have the "Indian variant" here in the US too, but absolutely no-one is wetting themselves about it. Here in New York, the mask mandate was effectively lifted two weeks ago, and our case numbers continue to decline. The (Western) vaccines work. End of story.
Imagine you are the PM, I’m just a mere spin doctor looking after your interests, one Eye on approval rating other on legacy.
If the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than other way around. I think that’s sage advice.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Am I missing something? Why would it matter in a Test match?
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Am I missing something? Why would it matter in a Test match?
You are missing a sense of humour and no, it doesn't matter in a test match.
I've not got time to read the 500 previous posts but I imagine the sense is he's got about six months to make an impression.
What he's got going for him is that his opponent is a liar a freeloader, amoral,incompetent and all round a pretty disgusting human being. Obviously the public have had other things to concentrate on but the mist is clearing fast and revealing an emperor without even a pair of speedos.
So it's up to Sir Keir. He seems honest and we know him to be bright. Certainly brighter than Johnson. His back story is much more impressive which might get some attention now.
I've not got time to read the 500 previous posts but I imagine the sense is he's got about six months to make an impression.
What he's got going for him is that his opponent is a liar a freeloader amoral incompetent and an all round pretty disgusting human being. Obviously the public have had other things to concentrate on but the mist is clearing fast and revealing an emperor without even a pair of speedos.
So it's up to Sir Keir. He seems honest and we know him to be bright. Certainly brighter than Johnson. His back story is much more impressive which might get some attention now.
In all seriousness it is a weakness that a combination of Root as captain and the lack of variety in the bowling means if England don't make a really good start and nip out the top 3 early, it consistently gets to this stage were the game drifts, the opposition get 100-150 seemingly without a chance going down and before you can say Boris has got married, had his honeymoon and already having an affair, England are facing 400+ and already lost the top 3.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
At first glance n the UK it looks like the lockdowns worked, when we had Lockdowns cases fell and when we did not cases rose. I get this. I understand why many think this, but IMHO it is wrong, cases where falling before each of the 3 lockdowns came in to place, and where rising before the second lockdown ended.
The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked.
For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown.
cases had started to rise just before the 2nd lockdown ended, that may look just like a couple of days data, but the rise was IMHO mostly because of the new strain, the Kent variant, more than the end of the lockdown.
And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down.
The normal courses of events is: cases rise, that gets in to the media, especially local media, people se that, or hear of friends/relatives that have it and modify there behaver, especially the most venerable. meanwhile, burocrats gather the numbers, then look at them, then discuss them, them come up with recommendation that are put to Politian's, then a decision is made and eventually implemented, by which time cases are falling.
I'm not saying that the Lockdowns had no effect, just a lot less than is in the popular imagination, including that of both Independent SAGE, real SAGE, Matt Handcock and BBC.
When Texas Opened up dully back in mid march, they were called Neadatholes By the US President, but nothing bad happened. when we opened schools here, again nothing happed. the rise over the last 3 weeks here, has IMHO very little to do with the re-opening that happened and is entirely or almost entirely down to a new variant.
But I get it that I am a lonely voice in these opinions, and I Understand why people disagree with me.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Am I missing something? Why would it matter in a Test match?
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
I recollect a desperate William Hague going on the Parkinson show after becoming party leader. It had negligible effect the public’s perception of him and certainly didn’t improve his ratings. I can’t see Starmer faring any better.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Well, as @rcs1000 has pointed out before, we have the "Indian variant" here in the US too, but absolutely no-one is wetting themselves about it. Here in New York, the mask mandate was effectively lifted two weeks ago, and our case numbers continue to decline. The (Western) vaccines work. End of story.
Imagine you are the PM, I’m just a mere spin doctor looking after your interests, one Eye on approval rating other on legacy.
If the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than other way around. I think that’s sage advice.
The problem is that there's no such thing as a scientific consensus around what to do, beyond a vague general sense that one ought to be cautious - which is what the Government appears to be doing by waiting until June 14th to gather information and make a decision. Some scientists are quite optimistic, others are gloomy, and there's a substantial faction - one suspects - that wants to keep the restrictions going forever. We had that earlier in the pandemic. Some of them were quite literally saying that our behaviour would have to change forever because of this disease.
The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd are particularly noisy and will always have another excuse up their sleeves once the previous one has been disregarded or debunked. Not enough people have been vaccinated. Not enough people have had both vaccines. The young haven't been vaccinated. Children haven't been vaccinated. What about new variants? How long will the protection from the vaccines last? We now need to give out boosters, we must lock down until the boosters have all been done. What about when the schools go back again after the Summer hols, it'll take off like a rocket! It's Autumn, Covid will spread more easily in the cold, damp weather. What about when Winter comes and Covid and flu hit at once: the hospitals will collapse, we must lock down until the Spring! We must lock down because exhausted NHS staff need a holiday. We must lock down for ten more years because the NHS needs space to catch up with non-Covid treatments.
There will ALWAYS be another excuse for not letting go of the security blanket, but at some point we have to or we'll never get out from under the heel of this wretched disease. By the time we get to June 21st, over four-fifths of the adult population will have had at least one vaccination, and over a half - including the vast majority of health and care workers, clinically vulnerable and elderly - will have had both doses and sufficient time for the second one to work. There is also scant evidence from the hotspots to suggest a serious danger to healthcare services; on the contrary, the early indications are positively encouraging. Which all rather begs the question: if nothing dramatic changes in the next twelve days, then why would the Government *not* go ahead with Step 4? What else does it need to wait for?
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
Does that surrender enough respect to the wave pattern of these things? Even without vaccines it looked like our first lockdown had kicked it.
I think vaccine wall we built will work against the next wave at least. Yet, if I was in the PMs ear right now, if you were PM your ear, I would advise, the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than do that the other way around. I think that’s sage political advice.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
I know I don't need to convince you Philip, but yes we have more people vaccinated now than Israel did when she opened up and only about a tenth of the number of cases per million. we also have 3 months of date, that suggests even she was unnecessarily caution with her wait.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
At first glance n the UK it looks like the lockdowns worked, when we had Lockdowns cases fell and when we did not cases rose. I get this. I understand why many think this, but IMHO it is wrong, cases where falling before each of the 3 lockdowns came in to place, and where rising before the second lockdown ended.
The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked.
For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown.
cases had started to rise just before the 2nd lockdown ended, that may look just like a couple of days data, but the rise was IMHO mostly because of the new strain, the Kent variant, more than the end of the lockdown.
And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down.
The normal courses of events is: cases rise, that gets in to the media, especially local media, people se that, or hear of friends/relatives that have it and modify there behaver, especially the most venerable. meanwhile, burocrats gather the numbers, then look at them, then discuss them, them come up with recommendation that are put to Politian's, then a decision is made and eventually implemented, by which time cases are falling.
I'm not saying that the Lockdowns had no effect, just a lot less than is in the popular imagination, including that of both Independent SAGE, real SAGE, Matt Handcock and BBC.
When Texas Opened up dully back in mid march, they were called Neadatholes By the US President, but nothing bad happened. when we opened schools here, again nothing happed. the rise over the last 3 weeks here, has IMHO very little to do with the re-opening that happened and is entirely or almost entirely down to a new variant.
But I get it that I am a lonely voice in these opinions, and I Understand why people disagree with me.
I wa talking about the peak of infections of the first wave being before the first lockdown a year ago.
I have no doubt that lockdowns help reduce infection but the actual facts are that cases peaked before the first lockdown.
I do think that humans think that we can control what this virus does, but the evidence does not back that up, other than with vaccines.
India is a prime example, there is no social distancing there, yet cases became very low in Jan/Feb and then increased very quickly in March/April, they are now coming down equally as quickly. I know there is a new variant there, but why are cases coming down so quickly now?
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Am I missing something? Why would it matter in a Test match?
I think its ironic.
Yes I realised afterwards what I was missing. 🤦♂️
I recollect a desperate William Hague going on the Parkinson show after becoming party leader. It had negligible effect the public’s perception of him and certainly didn’t improve his ratings. I can’t see Starmer faring any better.
Doubt it will do him any harm, but it is merely avoiding his real issue: how to make the Labour brand relevant for the 21st century. Most social democratic parties are struggling. Some really struggling.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
I know I don't need to convince you Philip, but yes we have more people vaccinated now than Israel did when she opened up and only about a tenth of the number of cases per million. we also have 3 months of date, that suggests even she was unnecessarily caution with her wait.
I keep coming back to the fact reopening schools made next to no difference.
If they could open without disaster - what part of society/economy other than the NHS and care homes (fully vaxxed) is realistically more vulnerable?
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Well, as @rcs1000 has pointed out before, we have the "Indian variant" here in the US too, but absolutely no-one is wetting themselves about it. Here in New York, the mask mandate was effectively lifted two weeks ago, and our case numbers continue to decline. The (Western) vaccines work. End of story.
Imagine you are the PM, I’m just a mere spin doctor looking after your interests, one Eye on approval rating other on legacy.
If the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than other way around. I think that’s sage advice.
The problem is that there's no such thing as a scientific consensus around what to do, beyond a vague general sense that one ought to be cautious - which is what the Government appears to be doing by waiting until June 14th to gather information and make a decision. Some scientists are quite optimistic, others are gloomy, and there's a substantial faction - one suspects - that wants to keep the restrictions going forever. We had that earlier in the pandemic. Some of them were quite literally saying that our behaviour would have to change forever because of this disease.
The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd are particularly noisy and will always have another excuse up their sleeves once the previous one has been disregarded or debunked. Not enough people have been vaccinated. Not enough people have had both vaccines. The young haven't been vaccinated. Children haven't been vaccinated. What about new variants? How long will the protection from the vaccines last? We now need to give out boosters, we must lock down until the boosters have all been done. What about when the schools go back again after the Summer hols, it'll take off like a rocket! It's Autumn, Covid will spread more easily in the cold, damp weather. What about when Winter comes and Covid and flu hit at once: the hospitals will collapse, we must lock down until the Spring! We must lock down because exhausted NHS staff need a holiday. We must lock down for ten more years because the NHS needs space to catch up with non-Covid treatments.
There will ALWAYS be another excuse for not letting go of the security blanket, but at some point we have to or we'll never get out from under the heel of this wretched disease. By the time we get to June 21st, over four-fifths of the adult population will have had at least one vaccination, and over a half - including the vast majority of health and care workers, clinically vulnerable and elderly - will have had both doses and sufficient time for the second one to work. There is also scant evidence from the hotspots to suggest a serious danger to healthcare services; on the contrary, the early indications are positively encouraging. Which all rather begs the question: if nothing dramatic changes in the next twelve days, then why would the Government *not* go ahead with Step 4? What else does it need to wait for?
Will you all stop it. 😃.
I am not the The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd. my bias is I can’t wait to get out of this crappy existence, it’s like not being alive, it’s probably killing me without the fitness dedication of TSE.
I am the spin doctor advising politically not medically to see how the wall stands up to Third Wave before claiming victory. See how she fairs on maiden voyage before claiming she is unsinkable.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Well, as @rcs1000 has pointed out before, we have the "Indian variant" here in the US too, but absolutely no-one is wetting themselves about it. Here in New York, the mask mandate was effectively lifted two weeks ago, and our case numbers continue to decline. The (Western) vaccines work. End of story.
Imagine you are the PM, I’m just a mere spin doctor looking after your interests, one Eye on approval rating other on legacy.
If the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than other way around. I think that’s sage advice.
The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd are particularly noisy and will always have another excuse up their sleeves once the previous one has been disregarded or debunked.
And at the moment they are getting a lot of the airtime as the scientists who will inform the government's decision are wisely not providing a running commentary. I think the government line is both wise & correct "Nothing to say change at the moment, but we need more data to be sure and we'll decide by June 14th."
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
Prof. Christina Pagel Retweeted BBC Politics @BBCPolitics · 1h "Actually we have 40% of the whole population with two [vaccine] doses - that's the figure we should be concentrating on" Christina Pagel, Independent SAGE, adds "I don't know what data [Boris Johnson's] looking at" but it's too early to know about 21 June
Why don't BBC and Sky just set up a permanent studio in her living room?
I recollect a desperate William Hague going on the Parkinson show after becoming party leader. It had negligible effect the public’s perception of him and certainly didn’t improve his ratings. I can’t see Starmer faring any better.
Doubt it will do him any harm, but it is merely avoiding his real issue: how to make the Labour brand relevant for the 21st century. Most social democratic parties are struggling. Some really struggling.
Where is the vision? Where is the big picture?
Especially as for now Boris has nicked his lunch promising lots of spending...see today, £1.5bn om tutoring and all they can say is not enough and kids shouldn't learn after 5pm.
Obviously the bill will have to be paid at some point.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Boris Johnson of course can famously score anywhere, with anyone.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
Does that surrender enough respect to the wave pattern of these things? Even without vaccines it looked like our first lockdown had kicked it.
I think vaccine wall we built will work against the next wave at least. Yet, if I was in the PMs ear right now, if you were PM your ear, I would advise, the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than do that the other way around. I think that’s sage political advice.
Its absolute bullshit that pretends the vaccines don't work.
Please give a single reason why Israel and the USA were capable of opening up with a situation much, much worse than ours when they did (both in case numbers and vaccination rates) many months ago and they've not seen a third wave that has overloaded their healthcare systems or led to a lockdown.
If all you have are catchphrases like "caution" and "third wave" and completely ignore the evidence then there's nothing more to say.
Prof. Christina Pagel Retweeted BBC Politics @BBCPolitics · 1h "Actually we have 40% of the whole population with two [vaccine] doses - that's the figure we should be concentrating on" Christina Pagel, Independent SAGE, adds "I don't know what data [Boris Johnson's] looking at" but it's too early to know about 21 June
Why don't BBC and Sky just set up a permanent studio in her living room?
Hold on she's saying it's too early to know about June 21st, fine let's accept that. Then on the other side she's saying that date needs to be pushed back. Which is it?
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
I know I don't need to convince you Philip, but yes we have more people vaccinated now than Israel did when she opened up and only about a tenth of the number of cases per million. we also have 3 months of date, that suggests even she was unnecessarily caution with her wait.
I keep coming back to the fact reopening schools made next to no difference.
If they could open without disaster - what part of society/economy other than the NHS and care homes (fully vaxxed) is realistically more vulnerable?
But with a lot of this evidence being quoted, where were we in the Wave System, that can give you sense of victory when you haven’t even done as much as we have to earn it?
Even trail events from weeks ago can date very quickly if that is before Alpha-papa got here, etc.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Boris Johnson of course can famously score anywhere, with anyone.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Well I stopped being a scorer the summer I had my first proper girlfriend, it was a devastating loss to my local cricket club.
I recollect a desperate William Hague going on the Parkinson show after becoming party leader. It had negligible effect the public’s perception of him and certainly didn’t improve his ratings. I can’t see Starmer faring any better.
Doubt it will do him any harm, but it is merely avoiding his real issue: how to make the Labour brand relevant for the 21st century. Most social democratic parties are struggling. Some really struggling.
Where is the vision? Where is the big picture?
Especially as for now Boris has nicked his lunch promising lots of spending...see today, £1.5bn om tutoring and all they can say is not enough.
Obviously the bill will have to be paid at some point.
They’re correct. It would be better to have nothing than effectively a token amount. That money looks set to be wasted given what they plan to do with it.
If you really want to sort out the mess in education, pump £20 billion in and cut classes sizes from 30 to 20. It isn’t a silver bullet but it would solve a great many problems and ameliorate many that remained.
Pay for it by dismissing every civil servant at the DfE, Ofsted, Ofqual, AQA, Eduqas, OCR, Edexcel and whatever they call the NCTL this week without compensation on the grounds of fraud.
Wouldn’t pay for all of it but it would pay for most of it.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Boris Johnson of course can famously score anywhere, with anyone.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Well I stopped being a scorer the summer I had my first proper girlfriend, it was a devastating loss to my local cricket club.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
At first glance n the UK it looks like the lockdowns worked, when we had Lockdowns cases fell and when we did not cases rose. I get this. I understand why many think this, but IMHO it is wrong, cases where falling before each of the 3 lockdowns came in to place, and where rising before the second lockdown ended.
The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked.
For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown.
cases had started to rise just before the 2nd lockdown ended, that may look just like a couple of days data, but the rise was IMHO mostly because of the new strain, the Kent variant, more than the end of the lockdown.
And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down.
The normal courses of events is: cases rise, that gets in to the media, especially local media, people se that, or hear of friends/relatives that have it and modify there behaver, especially the most venerable. meanwhile, burocrats gather the numbers, then look at them, then discuss them, them come up with recommendation that are put to Politian's, then a decision is made and eventually implemented, by which time cases are falling.
I'm not saying that the Lockdowns had no effect, just a lot less than is in the popular imagination, including that of both Independent SAGE, real SAGE, Matt Handcock and BBC.
When Texas Opened up dully back in mid march, they were called Neadatholes By the US President, but nothing bad happened. when we opened schools here, again nothing happed. the rise over the last 3 weeks here, has IMHO very little to do with the re-opening that happened and is entirely or almost entirely down to a new variant.
But I get it that I am a lonely voice in these opinions, and I Understand why people disagree with me.
I wa talking about the peak of infections of the first wave being before the first lockdown a year ago.
I have no doubt that lockdowns help reduce infection but the actual facts are that cases peaked before the first lockdown.
I do think that humans think that we can control what this virus does, but the evidence does not back that up, other than with vaccines.
India is a prime example, there is no social distancing there, yet cases became very low in Jan/Feb and then increased very quickly in March/April, they are now coming down equally as quickly. I know there is a new variant there, but why are cases coming down so quickly now?
The simple* answer is human behaviour. Behaviour changed before the lockdowns (reducing contact voluntarily) and and before the lockdowns ended (stretching/breaking the rules) for at least some people. What the lockdowns do/should do is deepen that behaviour, e.g. making it harder for people to meet en-masse and forcing employers to allow WFH etc - forcing most people to change behaviour.
Anecdotally, we stopped seeing my wife's parents a couple of weeks before first lockdown (dad highly vulnerable). I worked from home.
It does raise the question of had the government stongly advised things like WFH, stay away from most vulnerable before the lockdown, could lockdown have been avoided/lighter/shorter or could we have had fewer deaths?
* I use simple here to mean just that, simple, as in glib and not fully backed up. It's a possible answer and I think there are data to support it (Sweden, some US states - transit data etc show people change behaviour without being forced to through lock down - the argument is that they don't do it to a sufficient degree to impact on overall numbers/deaths as much as a formal lockdown).
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Boris Johnson of course can famously score anywhere, with anyone.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Well I stopped being a scorer the summer I had my first proper girlfriend, it was a devastating loss to my local cricket club.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
The single most boring thing about cricket in my opinion. I think I'd rather umpire and get abuse from the oppo's fast bowlers.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
According to TMS you can still buy an old-fashioned scorecard to fill in as the match progresses. They'd be better off learning how to do that.
How do you know they can't?
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Boris Johnson of course can famously score anywhere, with anyone.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Well I stopped being a scorer the summer I had my first proper girlfriend, it was a devastating loss to my local cricket club.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
At first glance n the UK it looks like the lockdowns worked, when we had Lockdowns cases fell and when we did not cases rose. I get this. I understand why many think this, but IMHO it is wrong, cases where falling before each of the 3 lockdowns came in to place, and where rising before the second lockdown ended.
The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked.
For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown.
cases had started to rise just before the 2nd lockdown ended, that may look just like a couple of days data, but the rise was IMHO mostly because of the new strain, the Kent variant, more than the end of the lockdown.
And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down.
The normal courses of events is: cases rise, that gets in to the media, especially local media, people se that, or hear of friends/relatives that have it and modify there behaver, especially the most venerable. meanwhile, burocrats gather the numbers, then look at them, then discuss them, them come up with recommendation that are put to Politian's, then a decision is made and eventually implemented, by which time cases are falling.
I'm not saying that the Lockdowns had no effect, just a lot less than is in the popular imagination, including that of both Independent SAGE, real SAGE, Matt Handcock and BBC.
When Texas Opened up dully back in mid march, they were called Neadatholes By the US President, but nothing bad happened. when we opened schools here, again nothing happed. the rise over the last 3 weeks here, has IMHO very little to do with the re-opening that happened and is entirely or almost entirely down to a new variant.
But I get it that I am a lonely voice in these opinions, and I Understand why people disagree with me.
"The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked." 1 - Nope; there's usually about 20 days. Deaths peaked 16 days after the lockdown, but the relative distributions were not symmetrical bell curves. SImon Nichol looked through them day-by-day to see the skew between mode, median, and mean here: https://twitter.com/sinichol/status/1383514119467278336 And would expect a 15.4 day difference peak-to-peak. (In any case, getting as many people as possible working from home and closing schools, pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, professional sports, leisure centres, gyms, etc all happened by the 20th: 20 days prior to the peak. At best, it could be argued that all we had to do was that - but the difference between that and what we did have is microscopic at best)
"For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown."
2 - Lockdown was announced on the 31st of October to begin from the 5th of November. I can't really see how "cases were falling before the lockdown" can be true: It's not even that close. This is England-only, and they definitely started falling AFTER the lockdown.
"And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down."
3 - Nope. Firstly, cases climbed in England after the 27th. The peak was between 1st of Jan to 5th of Jan.
Tier 4 kicked in in London and the much of the South East considerably earlier (20th December). This skews the figures (as "lockdown" didn't kick in on any one day, but started a fortnight earlier in the worst-hit areas. Here's London (locked down from the 20th of December): (And I expect that without Christmas mixing, the peak would have come earlier) The closure of schools over Christmas also doubtless helped as well In most of the non-London/SE regions, the peak came around the 5th/6th of January (lockdown announced on the 4th, just after school holidays finished)
Prof. Christina Pagel Retweeted BBC Politics @BBCPolitics · 1h "Actually we have 40% of the whole population with two [vaccine] doses - that's the figure we should be concentrating on" Christina Pagel, Independent SAGE, adds "I don't know what data [Boris Johnson's] looking at" but it's too early to know about 21 June
Why don't BBC and Sky just set up a permanent studio in her living room?
Hold on she's saying it's too early to know about June 21st, fine let's accept that. Then on the other side she's saying that date needs to be pushed back. Which is it?
She really strikes me as a complete wanker.
"Which is it?"
I strongly suspect the answer is "push back". Indeed, iirc she was saying two weeks ago it needs to be pushed back at least two weeks probably longer so that the government can collect more data about the variant.
The truth is that indie SAGE want lockdown to continue until everyone including all children have been double vaccinated and then they can start to demand an autumn lockdown as we wait for data on whether the booster vaccine works and so on and on.
Someone at the BBC needs to ask them how they envisage a functioning society again under their view of the world?
Recovery commissioner Sir Kevan Collins has written to the prime minister Boris Johnson to offer his resignation this afternoon.
Sir Kevan was unveiled by Boris Johnson as the government's catch-up tsar just five months ago, tasked with overseeing the creation of a plan that would ensure pupils could recover after two periods of school closures during the coronavirus pandemic.
Portugal's growth is from a very low case level: on a population adjusted basis, they're at about 4,000 cases a day which is only just above where we are.
And the rest of the EU is going to keep jabbing, and that means there are simply fewer and fewer people for the virus to infect. And the ones it is most likely to infect are the younger and less vulnerable ones. In other words, we're going to see a decoupling of infections and hospitalisations.
It's worth noting that that is exactly what happened in the US. They saw a wave between mid-March and mid-April, when their vaccination numbers were about not a million miles from the where the EU's are today, but they opened up in almost all states: daily cases went from 35,000 to 70,000, but hospitalisation and death numbers kept falling.
The EU is actually a little further along than the US was in mid-March, so I doubt they'll see quite such a big case increase, but the hospitalisations and deaths number will likely keep dropping.
Absolutely!!
The EU is where we were in March and we should have opened up then. We've pissed away 3 months for nothing but fear.
The EU are in the right here. They've watched what happened in the USA, watched what happened in the UK and they're not going to make the same mistakes we made.
They've made enough of their own mistakes but they're not repeating ours. Good for them!
I absolutely hate COVID and hate what the hell is going on. I hate lockdowns.
I do think some of you on here make it sound too easy for politicians, you don’t get how difficult the politics of COVID is for politicians, political decisions that weighing the lesser of evils, with choices like either this or that downsides.
For example, in part due to press pressure, you don’t touch Freedom Day, you declare Freedom from COVID. but in third wave the hospitalisations and deaths rise, the electorate call you the murderer - the press won’t protect you, they don’t do subtle, they don’t weigh the lesser, it’s all black and white in world of politics and public opinion.
Boris definitely does not need you as his advisor, he needs me.
The point is that we can see that the US opened up, and it was OK.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
I absolutely respect everything you say. You say it was opened up and everything proved okay. But these things do waves don’t they?
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
Is it easy to make decisions? No, things will be right or wrong in hindsight.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
Does that surrender enough respect to the wave pattern of these things? Even without vaccines it looked like our first lockdown had kicked it.
I think vaccine wall we built will work against the next wave at least. Yet, if I was in the PMs ear right now, if you were PM your ear, I would advise, the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than do that the other way around. I think that’s sage political advice.
Its absolute bullshit that pretends the vaccines don't work.
Please give a single reason why Israel and the USA were capable of opening up with a situation much, much worse than ours when they did (both in case numbers and vaccination rates) many months ago and they've not seen a third wave that has overloaded their healthcare systems or led to a lockdown.
If all you have are catchphrases like "caution" and "third wave" and completely ignore the evidence then there's nothing more to say.
Because between waves you could have done zilch and look like you are winning? That’s true isn’t it?
I am not saying vaccines don’t work, I’m saying politically they should test it on a wave and then claim victory, than claim victory before wave hits. It’s a political caution, Philip, I’m personally convinced of the science.
But politicians should only let science advise, as part of a bigger picture. You are saying that is wrong?
Comments
Must be quite a culture shock. Especially since Chris Dent is acknowledged as one of the sharpest captains in cricket around the world and Root with the best will in the world, isn’t.
Surprised Dumfries and Galloway is so low though. That’s a lovely area and as I recall it’s got decent road and rail links to Glasgow, Edinburgh and London.
A six to a hundred on test debut at Lord’s is just showing off though.
If we saw this data with a split of vaccinated and unvaccinated it would end all of the arguments once and for all. I really hope whatever presentation is coming next has got the case, hospitalisation and death data split by vaccinated + 3 weeks and unvaccinated.
The number of people in hospital in general is a bit less promising. The figures are up and down from day to day, but still generally increasing
From the 119 new admissions reported this week, 14 of them (12%) were children, and 25 of them (21%) were individuals older than 65
https://twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1400108253015691271?s=20
I wonder how many of the over 65s were vaccinated.
And even then, only maybe.
Even bits of the US where you'd expect there to be big potential problems because of lots of public transport and high density housing (like NYC) are doing great.
It seems extraordinary that people are unwilling to look beyond Bolton to see the lessons of vaccination.
And - of course - I would suggest everyone looks at Israel, where they are even reopening their tourist industry (albeit only to the vaccinated) and where daily cases are effectively zero.
It did NOT work in Albuquerque, which has a serious crime problem BUT was just too tough (and left) a nut to crack for the GOP. Does suggest that, at present any rate, Republicans simply do NOT have any other issue giving them traction with suburban voters - the kind of folks who USED to be reliable GOPers. But whom have been trending toward the Democrats in recent years - a trend exacerbated by You-Know-Who, and perhaps the chief reason for his defeat in 2020.
Addendum - Certainly helped the Democrats in NM CD1 that they were still smarting from getting totally skunked out of the special election runoff in Texas CD06 last month in burbs & exurbs of Forth Worth, despite the fact it was also a mostly suburban district (albeit one more conservative in recent voting that Albuquerque). So they put a LOT of money & resources (such as visits by Jill Biden & VP's husband) and beat the Republican challenge down, in a seat held by Dems since 2008.
vs data from yesterday
It of course possible that by the time we do that and the Jabs have time to take effect that Scotland is doing better and the rest of the UK worse, considering we are so close to having everybody jabbed anyway it would seem like the right thing to do to me.
Mohdhi boasted of beating Covid not so long ago.
Do I sound grumpy? I’m cheesed off the mess of the Third Wave is going to coincide with summer pursuits. 😷
But Everyday you Libertarians are piling it on, like it’s so straightforward
Go ahead with Freedom Day PM Bob, couple of weeks later in Third Wave, that incidentally you haven’t manufactured it’s just what these things do, hospitalisations and deaths mounting all over place, where have you got to go, Prime minister? Other than “measures”. Exactly. How painful will that be.
All I am saying is we are all hurting, probably dying of some lockdown related crap without even realising it. But it’s not that easy for those calling the shots in all our best interest, cut them some slack.
Do you really think the decisions are so black and white?
If the scientists say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory.
There's a group of lads sat in the crowd with a 'Boundary Countback' sign, where they're keeping tally of the boundaries each side scores. You know, just in case it becomes important...
Via the BBC website.
Once again, the rises in cases and admissions are linked to age, and hence vaccination status.
IIRC, the local health officials in its successor to that position, Blackburn, think they're only about 7-10 days behind Bolton, their local hospital trust is in a better place even than Bolton's with respect to Covid admissions, and the profile of the infected is heavily skewed towards younger and less vulnerable age groups.
There's simply nothing in any of this to suggest that we are on the brink of a repetition of the Kent variant catastrophe. The weather is doubtless helping, but the main reason is the vaccines. They're working in Bolton, and in Blackburn, and everywhere else.
Its funny because some of them you get distinctive themes and tones that would later be found in the Discworld books so its interesting reading them to the kids, knowing what he wrote later and that he'd written this decades earlier.
I make it two England players and four Kiwis who have played in both matches.
Root and Wood for us, Williamson, Taylor, de Grandhomme and Santner for them.
If the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, then let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than other way around. I think that’s sage advice.
What he's got going for him is that his opponent is a liar a freeloader, amoral,incompetent and all round a pretty disgusting human being. Obviously the public have had other things to concentrate on but the mist is clearing fast and revealing an emperor without even a pair of speedos.
So it's up to Sir Keir. He seems honest and we know him to be bright. Certainly brighter than Johnson. His back story is much more impressive which might get some attention now.
I'm starting to feel optimistic again.
https://order-order.com/2021/06/02/poll-49-of-labour-voters-want-to-replace-starmer-as-leader/
First live debate between eight leading Democratic candidates, in VERY hot race.
PBers MAY be able to access debate via Bloomberg radio audio
https://tunein.com/radio/Bloomberg-Radio-New-York-1130-s17075/
Other options likely via YouTube. Last debate was live blogged by NY1
The first lockdown it is hard to say for sure, because the number of tests was small but rising rapidly. but deaths peeked 2 weeks after the lockdown and as there is normally 4 week lag between infection and death, incidentally they peeked on the same day that deaths in Sweden peeked.
For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown.
cases had started to rise just before the 2nd lockdown ended, that may look just like a couple of days data, but the rise was IMHO mostly because of the new strain, the Kent variant, more than the end of the lockdown.
And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down.
The normal courses of events is: cases rise, that gets in to the media, especially local media, people se that, or hear of friends/relatives that have it and modify there behaver, especially the most venerable. meanwhile, burocrats gather the numbers, then look at them, then discuss them, them come up with recommendation that are put to Politian's, then a decision is made and eventually implemented, by which time cases are falling.
I'm not saying that the Lockdowns had no effect, just a lot less than is in the popular imagination, including that of both Independent SAGE, real SAGE, Matt Handcock and BBC.
When Texas Opened up dully back in mid march, they were called Neadatholes By the US President, but nothing bad happened. when we opened schools here, again nothing happed. the rise over the last 3 weeks here, has IMHO very little to do with the re-opening that happened and is entirely or almost entirely down to a new variant.
But I get it that I am a lonely voice in these opinions, and I Understand why people disagree with me.
Self-evidently in hindsight the USA was right to unlock in March and we were wrong not to. But in March the government couldn't have known that for certain, so while I've been pissed off by their cowardice I fully understand it.
But we're now no longer operating purely with hindsight and governments should learn lessons from those who've gone before them. The UK knows that it can unlock confidently and safely - Israel and the USA have before us.
The EU knows it can unlock confidently and safely, based on the USA doing so before it. They don't need to repeat our mistaken cowardice in hiding behind restrictions for three whole months too late because that path has already been trodden and shown to be unnecessary.
The rainbow flag has become the ultimate symbol of our me, me, me society.
Brendan O'Neill"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/06/02/the-unbearable-annoyingness-of-pride/
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19344517.sturgeon-meet-boris-johnson-rescheduled-covid-summit/
The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd are particularly noisy and will always have another excuse up their sleeves once the previous one has been disregarded or debunked. Not enough people have been vaccinated. Not enough people have had both vaccines. The young haven't been vaccinated. Children haven't been vaccinated. What about new variants? How long will the protection from the vaccines last? We now need to give out boosters, we must lock down until the boosters have all been done. What about when the schools go back again after the Summer hols, it'll take off like a rocket! It's Autumn, Covid will spread more easily in the cold, damp weather. What about when Winter comes and Covid and flu hit at once: the hospitals will collapse, we must lock down until the Spring! We must lock down because exhausted NHS staff need a holiday. We must lock down for ten more years because the NHS needs space to catch up with non-Covid treatments.
There will ALWAYS be another excuse for not letting go of the security blanket, but at some point we have to or we'll never get out from under the heel of this wretched disease. By the time we get to June 21st, over four-fifths of the adult population will have had at least one vaccination, and over a half - including the vast majority of health and care workers, clinically vulnerable and elderly - will have had both doses and sufficient time for the second one to work. There is also scant evidence from the hotspots to suggest a serious danger to healthcare services; on the contrary, the early indications are positively encouraging. Which all rather begs the question: if nothing dramatic changes in the next twelve days, then why would the Government *not* go ahead with Step 4? What else does it need to wait for?
I think vaccine wall we built will work against the next wave at least. Yet, if I was in the PMs ear right now, if you were PM your ear, I would advise, the scientists and statto’s say it’s Third Wave, let’s see how our wall stands up to it before claiming victory, rather than do that the other way around. I think that’s sage political advice.
I have no doubt that lockdowns help reduce infection but the actual facts are that cases peaked before the first lockdown.
I do think that humans think that we can control what this virus does, but the evidence does not back that up, other than with vaccines.
India is a prime example, there is no social distancing there, yet cases became very low in Jan/Feb and then increased very quickly in March/April, they are now coming down equally as quickly. I know there is a new variant there, but why are cases coming down so quickly now?
Where is the vision? Where is the big picture?
If they could open without disaster - what part of society/economy other than the NHS and care homes (fully vaxxed) is realistically more vulnerable?
I am not the The Zero Covid/Lockdown Ultra crowd. my bias is I can’t wait to get out of this crappy existence, it’s like not being alive, it’s probably killing me without the fitness dedication of TSE.
I am the spin doctor advising politically not medically to see how the wall stands up to Third Wave before claiming victory. See how she fairs on maiden voyage before claiming she is unsinkable.
Speaking as a former scorer you'd be surprised by just how many people who can score.
I'm a linear man myself.
Today they lost a naval vessel
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/02/irans-largest-navy-ship-catches-fire-sinks-gulf-oman-unclear/
And a live stream appears to be claiming one of their oil refineries is on fire too
BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
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1h
"Actually we have 40% of the whole population with two [vaccine] doses - that's the figure we should be concentrating on"
Christina Pagel, Independent SAGE, adds "I don't know what data [Boris Johnson's] looking at" but it's too early to know about 21 June
Why don't BBC and Sky just set up a permanent studio in her living room?
Obviously the bill will have to be paid at some point.
And the light clearly isn’t great either.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Please give a single reason why Israel and the USA were capable of opening up with a situation much, much worse than ours when they did (both in case numbers and vaccination rates) many months ago and they've not seen a third wave that has overloaded their healthcare systems or led to a lockdown.
If all you have are catchphrases like "caution" and "third wave" and completely ignore the evidence then there's nothing more to say.
She really strikes me as a complete wanker.
Even trail events from weeks ago can date very quickly if that is before Alpha-papa got here, etc.
If you really want to sort out the mess in education, pump £20 billion in and cut classes sizes from 30 to 20. It isn’t a silver bullet but it would solve a great many problems and ameliorate many that remained.
Pay for it by dismissing every civil servant at the DfE, Ofsted, Ofqual, AQA, Eduqas, OCR, Edexcel and whatever they call the NCTL this week without compensation on the grounds of fraud.
Wouldn’t pay for all of it but it would pay for most of it.
Anecdotally, we stopped seeing my wife's parents a couple of weeks before first lockdown (dad highly vulnerable). I worked from home.
It does raise the question of had the government stongly advised things like WFH, stay away from most vulnerable before the lockdown, could lockdown have been avoided/lighter/shorter or could we have had fewer deaths?
* I use simple here to mean just that, simple, as in glib and not fully backed up. It's a possible answer and I think there are data to support it (Sweden, some US states - transit data etc show people change behaviour without being forced to through lock down - the argument is that they don't do it to a sufficient degree to impact on overall numbers/deaths as much as a formal lockdown).
30 April - 2 May: 73%
21 May - 23 May: 58%
Down 15 ppts
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1400035436949655556?s=20
1 - Nope; there's usually about 20 days. Deaths peaked 16 days after the lockdown, but the relative distributions were not symmetrical bell curves. SImon Nichol looked through them day-by-day to see the skew between mode, median, and mean here: https://twitter.com/sinichol/status/1383514119467278336
And would expect a 15.4 day difference peak-to-peak.
(In any case, getting as many people as possible working from home and closing schools, pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, professional sports, leisure centres, gyms, etc all happened by the 20th: 20 days prior to the peak. At best, it could be argued that all we had to do was that - but the difference between that and what we did have is microscopic at best)
"For the second, cases were defiantly falling, if slowly before the Lockdown in England, and continued to fall in Scotland where there was no lockdown."
2 - Lockdown was announced on the 31st of October to begin from the 5th of November. I can't really see how "cases were falling before the lockdown" can be true:
It's not even that close. This is England-only, and they definitely started falling AFTER the lockdown.
"And again with the tired lockdown, being Christmas/new year there was a big delay with repotting of cases, but if you look at the NHS data sorted by date the sample was taken not the day it was reported on then 29 Dec was peek, with a seven day average peeked 27 Dec. not convinced? well hospital additions peeked 2 days after the lockdown started, but it takes a lot longer that 2 days between infection and hospitalisation, 2 weeks being about the norm, so again indication that infection had peeked and was coming down."
3 - Nope. Firstly, cases climbed in England after the 27th. The peak was between 1st of Jan to 5th of Jan.
Tier 4 kicked in in London and the much of the South East considerably earlier (20th December). This skews the figures (as "lockdown" didn't kick in on any one day, but started a fortnight earlier in the worst-hit areas. Here's London (locked down from the 20th of December):
(And I expect that without Christmas mixing, the peak would have come earlier)
The closure of schools over Christmas also doubtless helped as well
In most of the non-London/SE regions, the peak came around the 5th/6th of January (lockdown announced on the 4th, just after school holidays finished)
Germany blocks incoming Russian flights in tit-for-tat action:
I strongly suspect the answer is "push back". Indeed, iirc she was saying two weeks ago it needs to be pushed back at least two weeks probably longer so that the government can collect more data about the variant.
The truth is that indie SAGE want lockdown to continue until everyone including all children have been double vaccinated and then they can start to demand an autumn lockdown as we wait for data on whether the booster vaccine works and so on and on.
Someone at the BBC needs to ask them how they envisage a functioning society again under their view of the world?
Sir Kevan was unveiled by Boris Johnson as the government's catch-up tsar just five months ago, tasked with overseeing the creation of a plan that would ensure pupils could recover after two periods of school closures during the coronavirus pandemic.
Tes can reveal Sir Kevan's letter in full:
https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-sir-kevan-collins-resigns-over-catch-plan
I am not saying vaccines don’t work, I’m saying politically they should test it on a wave and then claim victory, than claim victory before wave hits. It’s a political caution, Philip, I’m personally convinced of the science.
But politicians should only let science advise, as part of a bigger picture. You are saying that is wrong?