If controlling hospital admissions is the objective then the pandemic is almost over – politicalbett

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If controlling hospital admissions is the objective then the pandemic is almost over – politicalbetting.com

The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is under the heading “Exclusive: Vaccination won’t mean an end to self-isolating”. This is in sharp contrast to the strategy being followed by the Biden administration in the US where those who are fully vaccinated don’t need to self-isolate if they have come into contact with someone who has had Covid unless they are showing symptoms. This is based on guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Read the full story here

Pro_Rata

Hi

beentheredonethat

Lo

Pro_Rata

Looks like I should assume that I'm banned from Scotland then.

Though I expect Scotland will at least have the courtesy of announcing it.

Philip_Thompson

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

Think we need to get down to the 20's mostly being vaccinated before we take that step, TBH. The 30's aren't all yet. Even teachers and health staff.
Travel restrictions at least should apply.

eek

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid are nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case and the chances of doing so.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

CarlottaVance

FPT:




https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1397121021870759936?s=20

TOPPING

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

Time_to_Leave

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid are nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case and the chances of doing so.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

I agree. Do it once. Do it well. Much though I’d like to say “they anti-vax brigade made there choice, leave them to it” there are also people who can’t be vaccinated, and a real problem for the rest of us if the hospitals get too full. I have no patience with those who want to lock us up for ever, buts let’s see the numbers so we know what we’re arguing about.

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:




https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1397121021870759936?s=20

Quieter skies, of course. We're under the flight path into Stansted and Heathrow.... the one that starts off Clacton.

Are the Ukrainian skies considered safe now?

eek

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:




https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1397121021870759936?s=20

Not doing them any harm, of course, unlike not welcoming flights from Belarus

IanB2

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid are nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case and the chances of doing so.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

Yet the latest government guidance is actually a significant tightening ofrecommended behaviour in some locations

TOPPING

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

In Leicester?

And it is reasonable to think that we want to be back to where we were in July 2019. That is why we have all been or about to be vaxxed (me for the second time in about 20mins).

No more restrictions. Do we still have to manage the disease? Of course. Do we have to keep an eye out for hospitalisations? You bet. But other than that then it's a no more restrictions situation.

Pulpstar

Time_to_Leave said:

there are also people who can’t be vaccinated

Who exactly are these people ? The number of pregnant women (Can't have Astra) with a known allergy to Polyethelene-Glycol (Can't have Pfizer or Moderna) is going to be vanishingly small.

TOPPING

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Stocky

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

In Leicester?

And it is reasonable to think that we want to be back to where we were in July 2019. That is why we have all been or about to be vaxxed (me for the second time in about 20mins).

No more restrictions. Do we still have to manage the disease? Of course. Do we have to keep an eye out for hospitalisations? You bet. But other than that then it's a no more restrictions situation.

I still scratch my head over the legality of all this. To restrict civil liberties at all is IMO questionable (legally) but to do so in the current climate, when NHS is not under pressure and rates are so low, is highly problematic surely.

The government is frightened - it is being driven by the fear of being criticised rather than being driven by science, data and legal/constitutional principle.

LostPassword

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them to, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

In Leicester?

And it is reasonable to think that we want to be back to where we were in July 2019. That is why we have all been or about to be vaxxed (me for the second time in about 20mins).

No more restrictions. Do we still have to manage the disease? Of course. Do we have to keep an eye out for hospitalisations? You bet. But other than that then it's a no more restrictions situation.

Completely agree. We're already at the stage where we should be able to live without any COVID measures. The death rate is negligible and the hospitalisation rate has dropped to background levels.

RochdalePioneers

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Cyclefree

Scrolling yesterday's threads I learn that @Topping and I were born in the same road in London - Avenue Road. Probably at the same clinic - long since gone

Totally irrelevant fact of the day.

Still cold here - though no rain. Am a bit fed up now with this. The garden has been watered plenty thanks. Gardening in horizontal wind and rain is no fun. A bit of warmth would do my roses, clematis - and me - the world of good. All we get is sun occasionally but no warmth. Enough already.

Stocky

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Well we do have government permission to hug our loved ones! Be thankful for their liberty breadcrumbs bestowed on us by our beneficent leader.

Pulpstar

I have some friends in Leicester. I'd say they are a bit annoyed.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Aren't you supposed to be a Lib Dem these days?

Nigelb

Having failed miserably to be proactive (other than with the vaccines) last year, the government now seems to have swung in the opposite direction, a year too late.

The time to be arranging an effective system of self-isolation was about twelve months ago. Set up back then it could have saved tens of thousands of lives. The current 'advice' is pretty well a waste of time.

RochdalePioneers

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them too, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

It does seem absurd that if you have been double vaccinated and have no symptoms that you still need 10 days isolation and three tests to return home from an amber list country. If you go and have had one or no jabs then maybe. But if you are vaccinated? Crackers. Or would be from any other government. Crackers is what you expect from the Cult

DougSeal

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Here's a list of Covid variants that are completely resistant to the vaccines we have available -

1.

Pulpstar

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

I don't think any of us are proposing abandoning ALL restrictions on foreign travel ? Domestic is a different beast though.

Endillion

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

It depends what you mean by "done". It's obviously not done if you're an epidemiologist, work in healthcare or pharma, or have responsibilities towards public health.

However, once the final restrictions are lifted, Joe Public should be able to forget about it all until otherwise stated. So if "done" just means it's out of the front half of the newspaper (ie confined to world and science news), then yes it's done.

Anabobazina

Superb column by OGH.

The government seems to have lost the plot these last couple of days, whois advising Boris?

Some serious bedwetting going on.

CarlottaVance

Multiple days from Spain/Germany:

https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

Nigelb

If you've had both vaccine shots, and come into contact with someone infected, why not simply take one of the now freely available to all lateral flow tests, should you want to act out of an excess of caution ?

Stocky

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them to, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

Hope you are right.

Re: "highly effective against all known variants" - but what about the unknown variants people will say.

MaxPB

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid are nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case and the chances of doing so.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

We have vaccines, we have booster shots. There is no scenario where we keep any measures because people refused the vaccine. If the government proposes a winter lockdown to protect the chumps then that 18 point lead disappears overnight.

Putting any restrictions on the lives of double jabbed people beyond June 21st is a step too far. We should already be completely open as a nation with late night bars/clubs open and social distancing already axed. It's time to accept that 10-20k old people per year will die from COVID because they're too stupid to take the freely available vaccine.

RochdalePioneers

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Aren't you supposed to be a Lib Dem these days?

And? Covid is still a menace to all the <35 yr olds who haven't been jabbed. Two jabs? Do what you want. Less than 2? Need to have some restrictions still to stop pox ripping through the young again. Cases are low now. Thats what happens at the bottom of the curve, if we want to avoid yet another spike we need to not be as complacent as we were last summer.

beentheredonethat

Anabobazina said:

Superb column by OGH.

The government seems to have lost the plot these last couple of days, whois advising Boris?

Some serious bedwetting going on.

Carrie Antoinette?

Selebian

Pulpstar said:

Time_to_Leave said:

there are also people who can’t be vaccinated

Who exactly are these people ? The number of pregnant women (Can't have Astra) with a known allergy to Polyethelene-Glycol (Can't have Pfizer or Moderna) is going to be vanishingly small.

One significant group is children with life limiting conditions/more severe long term conditions. Vaccines not approved for paediatric use (in general, I know Pfizer now is for >12 years in the US) but many of them are too vulnerable anyway, while also being at higher risk from Covid.

But that's just answering the question. The solution, for this group is to ensure that all parents, siblings (where possible - due to age, they're the tricky group) and carers are vaccinated and - for now - to have very frequent testing. It doesn't really have any relevance to the general population or general policy.

Vaccination (and rapid testing) has been a complete game-changer for this population. I know a couple who didn't hug their son for over a year and had the impossible decision of whether to not see him, other than through a window, at all or to have him at home full time, cutting him off from his friends and the better facilities in the care home (previous arrangement was weekends at home, weekdays in a care home).

MaxPB

Anabobazina said:

Superb column by OGH.

The government seems to have lost the plot these last couple of days, whois advising Boris?

Some serious bedwetting going on.

Gove, the snake.

Malmesbury

RochdalePioneers said:

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them too, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

It does seem absurd that if you have been double vaccinated and have no symptoms that you still need 10 days isolation and three tests to return home from an amber list country. If you go and have had one or no jabs then maybe. But if you are vaccinated? Crackers. Or would be from any other government. Crackers is what you expect from the Cult

The question is whether the virus can be spread by the vaccinated sufficiently to get to the vulnerable portions of the population. 5-6% of the oldest people are not vaccinated. If they get COVID, the CFR is very high - 30%+.

Which is what the government (or portions of it) are probably worried about.

GIN1138

[Mace WIndu On]This Pandemic Is Over[Mace Windu Off]

Cookie

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

Anabobazina

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

Yes, and this is the problem with this line of thinking. It's a precautionary approach to protect the ultra health-cautious, advocated chiefly by those who have little to lose from lockdowns.

I reminded of a tweet I read recently:

Anyone advocating a new lockdown, local or otherwise, should first publicly declare what their bank balance was on 20 March 2020, and what it is now.

Stocky

Anabobazina said:

Superb column by OGH.

The government seems to have lost the plot these last couple of days, whois advising Boris?

Some serious bedwetting going on.

Johnson is imitating one of Orwell's sheep - he is persuaded by the last person he talked to.

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

If you've had both vaccine shots, and come into contact with someone infected, why not simply take one of the now freely available to all lateral flow tests, should you want to act out of an excess of caution ?

Yep - the Gov'ts free lft (Well it's costing us all a fortune ) system should be used for this purpose. I seem to be feeling better today so doubt I'll bother using one from the pack I ordered yesterday but I now have 7 myself that I can use as and when I feel.

RochdalePioneers

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Here's a list of Covid variants that are completely resistant to the vaccines we have available -

1.

So far. The problem isn't here, its in developing world countries where it remains rampant.

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

I don't think any of us are proposing abandoning ALL restrictions on foreign travel ? Domestic is a different beast though.

There remains huge pressure on the government to unlock places like Spain, and a wider push to allow family travel even if not holidays. I personally need to visit an Amber country for business and another for a family visit, so I want unlocking.

Our problem as usual is incompetence. Red list countries still having direct and indirect flights, and Patel's shambles Border Agency creating big multi-hour queues at immigration is just bloody stupid.

Anabobazina

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

IanB2

They still haven’t sorted out an alternative to the AZN at the main (and only central) island vaccination centre, and are still refusing to take bookings from the under 40s. Only those who kick up a fuss are getting dealt with by sending them off to local GP practices.

Which is a shambolic state of affairs.

isam

There was just an NHS advert on the radio (Classic FM!) saying don’t go to Hounslow!!

beentheredonethat

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

Selebian

Not arguing against the main point, but the quote from Pollard says nothing about whether the vaccinated can spread Covid (it talks about severity of disease for those who are infected).

(The evidence is increasingly that vaccination is very good at preventing onwards infection, but it's not an easy thing to measure.)

LostPassword

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Those are good arguments for:
1. Allowing employees to work from home if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine.
2. Allowing employees to remain furloughed if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine and can't work from home.
3. Effective quarantine measures at the border.

Only one of those is a restriction, and it's a restriction that applies only to travel into the country. What internal restrictions are still justified?

Taz

isam said:

There was just an NHS advert on the radio (Classic FM!) saying don’t go to Hounslow!!

I don’t want to go to Chelsea

Pulpstar

RochdalePioneers said:

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Here's a list of Covid variants that are completely resistant to the vaccines we have available -

1.

So far. The problem isn't here, its in developing world countries where it remains rampant.

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

I don't think any of us are proposing abandoning ALL restrictions on foreign travel ? Domestic is a different beast though.

There remains huge pressure on the government to unlock places like Spain, and a wider push to allow family travel even if not holidays. I personally need to visit an Amber country for business and another for a family visit, so I want unlocking.

Our problem as usual is incompetence. Red list countries still having direct and indirect flights, and Patel's shambles Border Agency creating big multi-hour queues at immigration is just bloody stupid.

We sorely need vaccine passports for international travel. At least to enter this country. We're not... quite there yet but I think the dose gap will be short (3 - 6 weeks) for those at the back end of the rollout. Hopefully things will change when we're there.

eek

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

3 weeks may be the point at which everyone 18+ has had a chance of a jab. You then need to add another 2 weeks before immunity kicks in..

That is half the issue here - people just cannot cope with 1-2 week delays, they expect things to be instant which is sadly not how illnesses work...

londonpubman

Secret local restrictions is clearly the way forward!

RochdalePioneers

LostPassword said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Those are good arguments for:
1. Allowing employees to work from home if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine.
2. Allowing employees to remain furloughed if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine and can't work from home.
3. Effective quarantine measures at the border.

Only one of those is a restriction, and it's a restriction that applies only to travel into the country. What internal restrictions are still justified?

Perhaps ones that control large groups of unvaccinated people. Do we want to reopen nightclubs yet when almost everyone in them won't have had a single jab?

LostPassword

Stocky said:

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them to, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

Hope you are right.

Re: "highly effective against all known variants" - but what about the unknown variants people will say.

Sure, and the next bird flu strain might be ten times worse than Covid. We react to new threats as they appear. We certainly should learn from our failure to react to the Indian variant earlier.

Malmesbury

eek said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

3 weeks may be the point at which everyone 18+ has had a chance of a jab. You then need to add another 2 weeks before immunity kicks in..

That is half the issue here - people just cannot cope with 1-2 week delays, they expect things to be instant which is sadly not how illnesses work...

For the first jab, it looks more like 28 days+ for the peak immunity. IIRC.

Pro_Rata

Pulpstar said:

I have some friends in Leicester. I'd say they are a bit annoyed.

Clue: Mike posted another thread from Bedford with only a couple of hundred posts BTL on the last one.

I've just read the business owners locally to me with a B&B. I've no idea what will line up behind these restrictions, they are advice that I'll actually happy follow (for the most part), but how business reacts will be potentially more restrictive.

So the total lack of courtesy shown to us, AGAIN, in the reservoir areas is the expected and normal work of this, but for one thing, shower of shite of a government.

And don't think most of 12000 possible Tory voters in Batley & Spen aren't thinking exactly the same. It's gone for them, they've lost it and Labour could actually increase their majority now.

eek

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

When they stop spreading it to each other - the most curious (and worrying) thing about Leicester is that surely they should have reach herd immunity by now but still cases are sky high.

Now a lot of it will be due to poor quality and cramped housing. Another bit will be the return of Indians from their winter in India but it is strange that numbers are still so high in areas with similar ethnic groups.

CarlottaVance

RochdalePioneers said:

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them too, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

It does seem absurd that if you have been double vaccinated and have no symptoms that you still need 10 days isolation and three tests to return home from an amber list country. If you go and have had one or no jabs then maybe. But if you are vaccinated? Crackers. Or would be from any other government. Crackers is what you expect from the Cult

Guernsey, which has had a much more robust, enforced, policed and prosecuted Border policy than the UK is proposing this from July - with clear differentiation between those fully vaccinated and those not:

HYUFD

If after 21st June the government continues with a self isolation policy and compulsory facemasks despite most of the population having been vaccinated then that will likely lead to some further shift of Tory anti lockdown voters to Reform UK.

Already according to the latest Yougov the Tories are leaking significantly more of their 2019 voters to Reform UK than to Labour or the LDs, with 4% of 2019 Tory voters now backing Reform UK to just 2% backing Labour and 1% backing the LDs
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/p5qvebzbje/TheTimes_VotingIntention_210520.pdf

GIN1138

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

Indeed! The next 4-8 weeks should see complete normality return.

Stuartinromford

Stocky said:

Anabobazina said:

Superb column by OGH.

The government seems to have lost the plot these last couple of days, whois advising Boris?

Some serious bedwetting going on.

Johnson is imitating one of Orwell's sheep - he is persuaded by the last person he talked to.

Time to channel Angus Deayton from the glory days of Have I Got News For You:

So no change there, then.

Agreeing with the last person he spoke to is part of the "how to make people like you" toolkit. John Major had a similar talent. Do it with enough brio and you sound like a brilliant leader. It works as long as the little people don't compare notes.

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Here's a list of Covid variants that are completely resistant to the vaccines we have available -

1.

So far. The problem isn't here, its in developing world countries where it remains rampant.

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

I don't think any of us are proposing abandoning ALL restrictions on foreign travel ? Domestic is a different beast though.

There remains huge pressure on the government to unlock places like Spain, and a wider push to allow family travel even if not holidays. I personally need to visit an Amber country for business and another for a family visit, so I want unlocking.

Our problem as usual is incompetence. Red list countries still having direct and indirect flights, and Patel's shambles Border Agency creating big multi-hour queues at immigration is just bloody stupid.

We sorely need vaccine passports for international travel. At least to enter this country. We're not... quite there yet but I think the dose gap will be short (3 - 6 weeks) for those at the back end of the rollout. Hopefully things will change when we're there.

Vaccine passports are already here - in the NHS app (the main one that has access to your patient data)

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/nhs-app/

The issue now is working out an internationally recognised format for the QR code etc.

Anabobazina

eek said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

When they stop spreading it to each other - the most curious (and worrying) thing about Leicester is that surely they should have reach herd immunity by now but still cases are sky high.

Now a lot of it will be due to poor quality and cramped housing. Another bit will be the return of Indians from their winter in India but it is strange that numbers are still so high in areas with similar ethnic groups.

Are cases "sky high" though?

They are higher, certainly, than the mean, due largely to a high proportion of antivaxxers. Hard to see what you can do about that...

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

RochdalePioneers said:

LostPassword said:

While I agree with other poster's exasperation at the government for ignoring its own success with the vaccines I remain confident that the success with the vaccines will render this argument largely moot.

Before too long we will have a substantial majority of the population double-dosed with vaccines that are highly effective against all known variants. Even with the population engaging in a wild cavorting orgy, this will ensure that the virus does not spread.

No virus, no cases, no self-isolation. Next winter we will have more flu than Covid.

If the government starts to try to enforce self-isolation on vaccinated people who come into contact with a small number of vaccine refuseniks, who pick up the virus abroad, then I think they will have a poll-tax style revolt.

The experience of lockdown in this country is that people largely went into lockdown earlier than the government told them too, and came out of it earlier than they were told they were allowed to - because they were responding to largely rational fear. They will not play along with impositions when the fear has gone.

It does seem absurd that if you have been double vaccinated and have no symptoms that you still need 10 days isolation and three tests to return home from an amber list country. If you go and have had one or no jabs then maybe. But if you are vaccinated? Crackers. Or would be from any other government. Crackers is what you expect from the Cult

Guernsey, which has had a much more robust, enforced, policed and prosecuted Border policy than the UK is proposing this from July - with clear differentiation between those fully vaccinated and those not:

That looks very sensible indeed.

eek

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

3 weeks may be the point at which everyone 18+ has had a chance of a jab. You then need to add another 2 weeks before immunity kicks in..

That is half the issue here - people just cannot cope with 1-2 week delays, they expect things to be instant which is sadly not how illnesses work...

For the first jab, it looks more like 28 days+ for the peak immunity. IIRC.

So 7 weeks from now until those all those under 30 have some level of immunity, which is mid July not mid June.

Yet everything opens in mid June and people on here are complaining that still too late....

And I'm sorry for those with young children - schools will be dealing with the impact of isolation (and poor parenting) it for the next 15 years

GIN1138

HYUFD said:

If after 21st June the government continues with a self isolation policy and facemasks despite most of the population having been vaccinated then that will likely lead to some further shift of Tory anti lockdown voters to Reform UK.

Already according to the latest Yougov the Tories are leaking significantly more of their 2019 voters to Reform UK than to Labour or the LDs, with 4% of 2019 Tory voters now backing Reform UK to just 2% backing Labour and 1% backing the LDs
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/p5qvebzbje/TheTimes_VotingIntention_210520.pdf

If Boris intends to keep things locked down beyond June the 1922 will have to do a Theresa on him.

Cyclefree

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:




https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1397121021870759936?s=20

Piracy does not just involve airlines. It can be done to trains and vehicles. Perhaps these should not be allowed into Belarus either.

beentheredonethat said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

Wholeheartedly agree. I have written plenty about the effect on Daughter's business but the effect on her social life and that of her two brothers has been equally damaging. They are young - they should be out meeting people, loving, learning, having sex, adventures, fun - living life to the full. They have lost the best part of a year and a half. Enough.

Pulpstar

Once we've done all 18+ twice we shouldn't take a break and immediately head down to 12 - 17 year olds with the mRNA stuff.

Pro_Rata

eek said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

When they stop spreading it to each other - the most curious (and worrying) thing about Leicester is that surely they should have reach herd immunity by now but still cases are sky high.

Now a lot of it will be due to poor quality and cramped housing. Another bit will be the return of Indians from their winter in India but it is strange that numbers are still so high in areas with similar ethnic groups.

If you look at the aggregate death levels in areas having problems now, they are not consistently the highest around. Having a high relative rate when the overall prevalence is low is not the same having a high relative rate at the peak of the wave. With Leicester and parts of the North you are dealing with the former not the latter.

Chameleon

Am I missing something? Aren't the new 'restrictions' entirely advisory? If they are, then who really gives a toss?

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

If you've had both vaccine shots, and come into contact with someone infected, why not simply take one of the now freely available to all lateral flow tests, should you want to act out of an excess of caution ?

Yep - the Gov'ts free lft (Well it's costing us all a fortune ....

Largely sunk cost, now.
As they are very good at detecting transmissible levels of virus, no reason not to use them if (say) you're attending a meeting with those not yet vaccinated.

Philip_Thompson

MaxPB said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid are nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case and the chances of doing so.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

We have vaccines, we have booster shots. There is no scenario where we keep any measures because people refused the vaccine. If the government proposes a winter lockdown to protect the chumps then that 18 point lead disappears overnight.

Putting any restrictions on the lives of double jabbed people beyond June 21st is a step too far. We should already be completely open as a nation with late night bars/clubs open and social distancing already axed. It's time to accept that 10-20k old people per year will die from COVID because they're too stupid to take the freely available vaccine.

Putting any restrictions on the lives of double jabbed people beyond June 21st is a step too far.

FTFY. The only reason the young haven't been vaccinated yet is they were not at real risk in the first place. Why should people who've put their lives on hold remain on hold just because the vaccine isn't ready to them yet? Or because they've only had one jab because that's all they've been offered?

Double vaccinated or not shouldn't be relevant. We've double vaccinated those who needed double vaccinating, let everyone else determine their own risk profile.

GIN1138

I'm having my second AZ jab on 3rd June. I'll be ditching my face mask/social distancing etc etc on 3rd July whatever the "official" government policy is by then. That's it! Done!

Cyclefree

Chameleon said:

Am I missing something? Aren't the new 'restrictions' entirely advisory? If they are, then who really gives a toss?

Because the difference between what is the law and what is merely guidance and advice has been deliberately obscured by the government and misunderstood by officialdom, from the police down. That's why we should give a toss.

isam

Chameleon said:

Am I missing something? Aren't the new 'restrictions' entirely advisory? If they are, then who really gives a toss?

Become such a prisoner of Covid that I forget what we were allowed to do before

But I see all my family now, go to the pub and play football on a Saturday, and that’s all I really did before anyway

And I haven’t had a jab!

LostPassword

RochdalePioneers said:

LostPassword said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Those are good arguments for:
1. Allowing employees to work from home if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine.
2. Allowing employees to remain furloughed if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine and can't work from home.
3. Effective quarantine measures at the border.

Only one of those is a restriction, and it's a restriction that applies only to travel into the country. What internal restrictions are still justified?

Perhaps ones that control large groups of unvaccinated people. Do we want to reopen nightclubs yet when almost everyone in them won't have had a single jab?

I think that's fine. I'd advise people that there's a risk, and they might decide waiting for the vaccine before joining those groups is a choice they want to make to reduce that risk.

The difference with last year is that people would be making a decision on their personal risk - anyone more at risk than them that they might come into contact with will have been vaccinated. So we don't have the conflict between people taking large risks where the consequences are felt by others not themselves.

If we are a free society we have to let people make decisions about their personal risk. It's only where it affects others that we are justified to step in and interfere.

IanB2

GIN1138 said:

I'm having my second AZ jab on 3rd June. I'll be ditching my face mask/social distancing etc etc on 3rd July whatever the "official" government policy is by then. That's it! Done!

I had mine Sunday, felt tired and ropey Monday, had a night of feeling unusually cold last night, but think I am through the worst of it now. I had antibodies froom the first jab, as tested last week by the NHS/Imperial random testing programme.

As you say, for me the war is over...

Nigelb

The level of abasement towards China here is cringe inducing:
https://twitter.com/JoeXu/status/1396910262494457856

Pulpstar

GIN1138 said:

I'm having my second AZ jab on 3rd June. I'll be ditching my face mask/social distancing etc etc on 3rd July whatever the "official" government policy is by then. That's it! Done!

I think people are generally unlocking based on the vaccination status of themselves and their friends tbh.

RobinWiggs

beentheredonethat said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

It was my least favourite. It sounds like the ranting of an inpatient and petulant toddler who can't understand why they can't go out and play naked in a thunderstorm. It's hardly a totalitarian distopia, as presented.

The counter view: This is a potentially fatal novel disease. It is merely controlled at present by reasonable isolation and containment measures. Those measures were frustrating for and still resulted in the deaths of 130k people. WIthout those measures, the death toll would have been many fold higher. Until we are a little more certain how the virus will respond to vaccine uptake or the medium term impacts of long-covid, then the predictabilty of the cold virus analogy is spot on. We just need to be careful and a little patient for a few more weeks.

We could of course go silly and it will be fine. Equally we could go silly and find the virus escapes the vaccine or develops increased lethality in other age groups, and we are back in a stricter protective lockdown.

Sensible people will wait and not go silly.

Declaration of interest - I help lead the vaccination programe for two counties in the N West, I run a hospital vaccine centre, I work in a hospital, I have been front and centre of the covid response throughout. I follow the science closely.

Malmesbury

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

3 weeks may be the point at which everyone 18+ has had a chance of a jab. You then need to add another 2 weeks before immunity kicks in..

That is half the issue here - people just cannot cope with 1-2 week delays, they expect things to be instant which is sadly not how illnesses work...

For the first jab, it looks more like 28 days+ for the peak immunity. IIRC.

So 7 weeks from now until those all those under 30 have some level of immunity, which is mid July not mid June.

Yet everything opens in mid June and people on here are complaining that still too late....

And I'm sorry for those with young children - schools will be dealing with the impact of isolation (and poor parenting) it for the next 15 years

Immunity starts rapidly after the first jab, but builds steadily. The Edinburgh trail suggested that 7-13 days after first vaccination efficacy was 38%. But it rises alot from there.

RochdalePioneers

LostPassword said:

RochdalePioneers said:

LostPassword said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Covid is done. If you have had both jabs. And the latest foreign variants don't become resistant. And don't come here. So it isn't done!

We absolutely should work towards normalisation. But not just drop all restrictions because "its done". Its not.

Those are good arguments for:
1. Allowing employees to work from home if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine.
2. Allowing employees to remain furloughed if they are still waiting to be offered the vaccine and can't work from home.
3. Effective quarantine measures at the border.

Only one of those is a restriction, and it's a restriction that applies only to travel into the country. What internal restrictions are still justified?

Perhaps ones that control large groups of unvaccinated people. Do we want to reopen nightclubs yet when almost everyone in them won't have had a single jab?

I think that's fine. I'd advise people that there's a risk, and they might decide waiting for the vaccine before joining those groups is a choice they want to make to reduce that risk.

The difference with last year is that people would be making a decision on their personal risk - anyone more at risk than them that they might come into contact with will have been vaccinated. So we don't have the conflict between people taking large risks where the consequences are felt by others not themselves.

If we are a free society we have to let people make decisions about their personal risk. It's only where it affects others that we are justified to step in and interfere.

That's fair

Pulpstar

RobinWiggs said:

beentheredonethat said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

It was my least favourite. It sounds like the ranting of an inpatient and petulant toddler who can't understand why they can't go out and play naked in a thunderstorm. It's hardly a totalitarian distopia, as presented.

The counter view: This is a potentially fatal novel disease. It is merely controlled at present by reasonable isolation and containment measures. Those measures were frustrating for and still resulted in the deaths of 130k people. WIthout those measures, the death toll would have been many fold higher. Until we are a little more certain how the virus will respond to vaccine uptake or the medium term impacts of long-covid, then the predictabilty of the cold virus analogy is spot on. We just need to be careful and a little patient for a few more weeks.

We could of course go silly and it will be fine. Equally we could go silly and find the virus escapes the vaccine or develops increased lethality in other age groups, and we are back in a stricter protective lockdown.

Sensible people will wait and not go silly.

Declaration of interest - I help lead the vaccination programe for two counties in the N West, I run a hospital vaccine centre, I work in a hospital, I have been front and centre of the covid response throughout. I follow the science closely.

I doubt there's much chance of a substantial vaccine escape in this country now, we won't have enough unvaccinated and infirm hosts. Globally is another matter, and why a red list needs to be kept.

IanB2

isam said:

There was just an NHS advert on the radio (Classic FM!) saying don’t go to Hounslow!!

To be fair, that was always good advice.

Maffew

Cyclefree said:

Chameleon said:

Am I missing something? Aren't the new 'restrictions' entirely advisory? If they are, then who really gives a toss?

Because the difference between what is the law and what is merely guidance and advice has been deliberately obscured by the government and misunderstood by officialdom, from the police down. That's why we should give a toss.

A good example is in the new guidance where it says "this guidance is underpinned by law". Despite no change in the law.

eek

Anabobazina said:

eek said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

When they stop spreading it to each other - the most curious (and worrying) thing about Leicester is that surely they should have reach herd immunity by now but still cases are sky high.

Now a lot of it will be due to poor quality and cramped housing. Another bit will be the return of Indians from their winter in India but it is strange that numbers are still so high in areas with similar ethnic groups.

Are cases "sky high" though?

They are higher, certainly, than the mean, due largely to a high proportion of antivaxxers. Hard to see what you can do about that...

what evidence is it that the issue is anti-vaxxers. All the issues seem to be connected to the Indian variant (which given the timescales probably means relatives of people returned from India).

DavidL

Somewhat boringly, I am with the clear majority on this. The number of deaths with (not necessarily of) Covid in the UK in the last 7 days is 40 according to Worldometer, down from 75 the week before. It is, bluntly, a trivial number in a population of 68m and almost certainly largely composed of those who were going to die anyway who were vulnerable to infection and it continues to fall. It is no reason at all to impose restrictions on us about where we go, who we visit, where we socialise, or anything else at all.

Enough. Crack on with vaccination as fast as we can (370k yesterday was disappointing) but let's take advantage of the freedom that vaccines have given to us. The vulnerable have now had both. More than 70% of us have had at least 1 and that number is going up amongst the non vulnerable by almost a per cent a day on average. 21st June frankly seems a long way away, too far really. I think we should start the repeals of the absurd legislation that we have brought in about this now. If people because of their own personal circumstances want to be cautious that is a matter for them. Its not a matter for the rest of us.

RobinWiggs

Pulpstar said:

RobinWiggs said:

beentheredonethat said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

It was my least favourite. It sounds like the ranting of an inpatient and petulant toddler who can't understand why they can't go out and play naked in a thunderstorm. It's hardly a totalitarian distopia, as presented.

The counter view: This is a potentially fatal novel disease. It is merely controlled at present by reasonable isolation and containment measures. Those measures were frustrating for and still resulted in the deaths of 130k people. WIthout those measures, the death toll would have been many fold higher. Until we are a little more certain how the virus will respond to vaccine uptake or the medium term impacts of long-covid, then the predictabilty of the cold virus analogy is spot on. We just need to be careful and a little patient for a few more weeks.

We could of course go silly and it will be fine. Equally we could go silly and find the virus escapes the vaccine or develops increased lethality in other age groups, and we are back in a stricter protective lockdown.

Sensible people will wait and not go silly.

Declaration of interest - I help lead the vaccination programe for two counties in the N West, I run a hospital vaccine centre, I work in a hospital, I have been front and centre of the covid response throughout. I follow the science closely.

I doubt there's much chance of a substantial vaccine escape in this country now, we won't have enough unvaccinated and infirm hosts. Globally is another matter, and why a red list needs to be kept.

Provided the new variants of interest/concern don't evolve down the line of increased lethality and reduced capture by the vaccine. Hopefully unlikely - but there are some lines of mutation that are more worrying than others.

CarlottaVance

Ursula von der Leyen's claim that "problems do not come from the Protocol, they result from Brexit" is disingenuous. It was the decision by the UK and the EU to prioritise N/S relations in Ireland over GB/NI relations which has caused the resentment and the disruption.

https://twitter.com/paul_lever/status/1397135196013699072?s=20

Scott_xP

DOM'S BOMB No10 & Hancock braced for 'Domageddon' as rogue aide Dominic Cummings set to spill lockdown secrets tomorrow

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/15060738/dominic-cummings-domageddon-showdown-lockdown-secrets/

Carnyx

IanB2 said:

GIN1138 said:

I'm having my second AZ jab on 3rd June. I'll be ditching my face mask/social distancing etc etc on 3rd July whatever the "official" government policy is by then. That's it! Done!

I had mine Sunday, felt tired and ropey Monday, had a night of feeling unusually cold last night, but think I am through the worst of it now. I had antibodies froom the first jab, as tested last week by the NHS/Imperial random testing programme.

As you say, for me the war is over...

Not quite yet - you (and I, in a similar position) need to let thje antibodies build up for at least a couple of weeks. But we are over the Rhine and the Elbe, with any luck.

GIN1138

Re. the previous thread, my own view is that choosing Jo Cox's sister as Labour's candidate for Batley and Spen may work against them.

Don't get me wrong I'm sure everyone there thinks what happened to Jo Cox was terrible and dreadful but I can't really see how that automatically translates to people voting for her sister?

Certainly when Labour tried something similar with Gwynith Dunwoody's daughter in the Crewe and Nantwich by election it didn't work out (albeit that was in very different circumstances)

To me it has a sniff of Labour once again taking their voters for granted but I could be wrong...

CarlottaVance

Another SNP PPB:

For info: there is an @scotgov Covid update at 12.15pm. As well as today’s figures, we will give a general overview of the current situation. Please tune in if you can.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1397138233549594626?s=20

I wonder if anyone will ask if the money spent on setting up the Brussels Office could have been more usefully spent on, say, drugs deaths?

Selebian

Pulpstar said:

RobinWiggs said:

beentheredonethat said:

Cookie said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

To be honest, business is the least of my concerns. My youngest daughter has lived 20% of her life in a situation in which playdates have been banned, in which she cannot, by law, hug her grandparents. My oldest daughter is having her end of primary school residential trip away because - well, I'm not sure why, but apparently Wales isn't fully opening up on June 21st, so they can have the residential but have to come home to England each night. It's looking increasingly like we'll have to cancel the trip away at half-term. They're missing out on big elements of their childhood. I'm missing out on big elements of their childhood. And moving on to me, a pub isn't a pub if you have to sit obediently at a table, it's a bar. Indoor leisure activities are open now but the pleasure of them is taken away by having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to wear facemasks. I'm sick of having to look at other people wearing facemasks. I'm sick of being bullied and hectored and patronised at my own expense. I'm sick of banners on lamposts telling me to keep my distance, wear a mask. I'm sick of the uncertainty, the inability to plan, in case a capricious government change their minds again, in case a bubble pops, in case I get pinged by track and trace. I'm sick of QR codes. I'm sick of not being allowed in to places unless I give my identity.
Fuck. That. Shit.
This is not a reasonable halfway house. This is a totalitarian nightmare sweetened only by being less of a totalitarian nightmare than it was 13 months ago. It is a nightmare I am willing to endure three weeks longer until all adults have been offered a jab, but a nightmare nonetheless, and if it's going to continue past June 21st - which looks increasingly to be the case - then we may as well give up trying now.
None of this prevents business being done. I can still procure. I can buy things, if I need them. I can work. The economy will not crash. But there's more to life than the economy.

This is my favourite post of the year. Thank you.

It was my least favourite. It sounds like the ranting of an inpatient and petulant toddler who can't understand why they can't go out and play naked in a thunderstorm. It's hardly a totalitarian distopia, as presented.

The counter view: This is a potentially fatal novel disease. It is merely controlled at present by reasonable isolation and containment measures. Those measures were frustrating for and still resulted in the deaths of 130k people. WIthout those measures, the death toll would have been many fold higher. Until we are a little more certain how the virus will respond to vaccine uptake or the medium term impacts of long-covid, then the predictabilty of the cold virus analogy is spot on. We just need to be careful and a little patient for a few more weeks.

We could of course go silly and it will be fine. Equally we could go silly and find the virus escapes the vaccine or develops increased lethality in other age groups, and we are back in a stricter protective lockdown.

Sensible people will wait and not go silly.

Declaration of interest - I help lead the vaccination programe for two counties in the N West, I run a hospital vaccine centre, I work in a hospital, I have been front and centre of the covid response throughout. I follow the science closely.

I doubt there's much chance of a substantial vaccine escape in this country now, we won't have enough unvaccinated and infirm hosts. Globally is another matter, and why a red list needs to be kept.

I wonder (and it's probably impossible to come to a judgement on this) which is more likely:
(a) Mutation of SARS‑CoV‑2 to make existing vaccines largely ineffective
(b) A different corona (or other) virus making the leap to humans from a lab bat barbecue

IanB2

Carnyx said:

IanB2 said:

GIN1138 said:

I'm having my second AZ jab on 3rd June. I'll be ditching my face mask/social distancing etc etc on 3rd July whatever the "official" government policy is by then. That's it! Done!

I had mine Sunday, felt tired and ropey Monday, had a night of feeling unusually cold last night, but think I am through the worst of it now. I had antibodies froom the first jab, as tested last week by the NHS/Imperial random testing programme.

As you say, for me the war is over...

Not quite yet - you (and I, in a similar position) need to let thje antibodies build up for at least a couple of weeks. But we are over the Rhine and the Elbe, with any luck.

As I said, I already have the antibodies, proven by testing, from the first jab.

Anabobazina

eek said:

Anabobazina said:

eek said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Well written Mike, this is over now.

While the "risk stratification" notion last year was codswallop, it was achieved months ago in this country already. "Deaths within 28 days of an infection" not all of which will be deaths from Covid as opposed to with Covid now are below typical road traffic accident deaths in a normal year.

Time to unlock everything. No ifs, no buts. If people want to isolate then let them. If people wish to be antivaxx and end up in hospital then that's their own choice, just as if people choose to smoke and end up in hospital.

We won't actually know the current state of affairs until 10 or so days from now when we see the impact of the May 17th changes and what that has done to case numbers.

And my concern with any statement that it's like the common cold is that we've had the common cold for 2000+ years and we all know what the consequences of it are.

We've had Covid for just over a year and we really don't know what the long term consequences of Covid or nor whether you can catch Long Covid from a mild case.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be opening things up but it does mean we shouldn't be rushing eagerly to do so. June 21st isn't that far away and a months wait now is better than another lockdown come October.

All of that is absolutely true. And also depressing that you should write it. You are saying that on account of a disease that is certainly deadly, and might have other long term effects, but which has largely been controlled, and which as it stands poses no threat to our health service, the government should continue to determine when we are allowed out of our own homes.

But we can leave our homes and we can do a while set of things that weren't open before.

The current position isn't the lockdown of March last year, it's the position we were in back in July last year.

were we back to the 1 hour of exercise outside and don't go to work position we were in back in January I would agree with you but we are currently in a reasonable half way house that allows business to be done.

*ponders your post again"

"but we can leave our homes".

Dear god!

Worth repeating that people in the City of Leicester have now been advised – again – that they should not allow anyone into their homes.

When will it ever end?

When they stop spreading it to each other - the most curious (and worrying) thing about Leicester is that surely they should have reach herd immunity by now but still cases are sky high.

Now a lot of it will be due to poor quality and cramped housing. Another bit will be the return of Indians from their winter in India but it is strange that numbers are still so high in areas with similar ethnic groups.

Are cases "sky high" though?

They are higher, certainly, than the mean, due largely to a high proportion of antivaxxers. Hard to see what you can do about that...

what evidence is it that the issue is anti-vaxxers. All the issues seem to be connected to the Indian variant (which given the timescales probably means relatives of people returned from India).

Yes the Indian variant, but the spread is due to vaccine refusal, it seems. Take a look at case rates than maps to vaccine refusals – a close correlation.

tlg86

GIN1138 said:

Re. the previous thread, my own view is that choosing Jo Cox's sister as Labour's candidate for Batley and Spen may work against them.

Don't get me wrong I'm sure everyone there thinks what happened to Jo Cox was terrible and dreadful but I can't really see how that automatically translates to people voting for her sister?

Certainly when Labour tried something similar with Gwynith Dunwoody's daughter in the Crewe and Nantwich by election it didn't work out (albeit that was in very different circumstances)

To me it has a sniff of Labour once again taking their voters for granted but I could be wrong...

One of the big problems with the Labour Party, in my opinion, is that they think people ought to vote for them. They're see themselves as morally superior.

The key thing is, Labour basically need to campaign in Batley and Spen like it was any other seat with any other candidate. If people bring up Jo Cox, then talk to them about it. But they must not make that a key part of their pitch.