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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    felix said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    I'd vote for Roger to lead the Labour party - I'd even crowdfund 20 p to help him on his way!
    You must really hate Labour
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Great interview with The King of the North

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1391060146466525186
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2021

    Burnham on BBC news now.

    What a difference to Starmer's performance.

    The King speaks human.

    As I have said before had Burnham been elected Labour leader not Corbyn in 2015, Labour would likely have won most seats against May's Tories in 2017. Indeed had Burnham been elected Labour leader not Ed Miliband in 2010 he may have denied Cameron a majority in 2015 too and there would thus never have been an EU referendum and no Brexit.

    As he correctly said Labour have to look beyond just London to win in England
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2021
    DavidL said:

    Good interview from Rebecca Long Bailley on the BBC and now Andy Burnham. The natives are getting restless.

    RLB has not spoken to SKS for "a very long time". This seems unwise.

    SKS has grossly underestimated Labour's problems.

    I think SKS thought the New Labour playbook would be enough -- rid the party of Corbyn (his "Clause 4" moment) and tar the Tories as sleazy (as Alistair Campbell did so sucessfully in 1997) and job done.

    Hence, we got these bizarre stories in the press about Matt Hancock's Great Auntie owning shares in a company that bid for contracts in the Welsh NHS, or something. And the wallpaper, don't forget the wallpaper. And the idea that Dyson was a bad guy because he messaged the PM.

    Labour's problem are much, much deeper than in the 1990s. I mean, Labour have all the problems of the early 1990s and they have two additional huge problems in Scotland and the Red Wall.

    SKS is an inexperienced politician. I think he only became a Labour party member (as opposed to a supporter) before being parachuted into the safe Holborn & St Pancras seat.

    SKS is frankly not up to the job.

    Putting SKS up against Boris is like putting a mouse into a cage with a wolverine.
  • Great interview with The King of the North

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1391060146466525186

    Bit confused why you're so supportive of a man who despised Corbyn?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Classy contrast to Wishart:


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Craig Murray's hot take:

    My own brief analysis of what went wrong for Alba.

    With very little mainstream media coverage, and that viciously hostile, we relied very heavily on social media.

    There, we alienated many people by apparent identification with an obsessive and irrational hatred of trans people.


    https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1390994237643165701?s=20

    A stopped clock is right more often....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.

    And his example of the price of a bus in London and in Manchester is a good one, a genuine test of levelling up. Its even a policy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1391054563160076297

    So what is going on in the West? It seems to me that rumours of Labour's death are greatly exaggerated

    They don't like Brexit much round that way and Bristol has become ever more Labour stronghold. Even the posh bits are packed full of Corbynistas.
    Indeed Labour's death is greatly exaggerated. That bit is simple. They hold 200+ seats in parliament and can target lots more. The tricky bit is twofold: how can Labour avoid death as a majority party of government

    and secondly - a truly fascinating question for maps and demographers - no-one doubts a realignment happening, with Labour a huge part of the mix. Labour now wins council seats in places like Worthing and Surrey; they hold Enfield Southgate easily etc, while losing Hartlepool. But what does the alignment look like when the music briefly stops. How can they manage the transition from typical non ultra urban working class seats to the new rather posher clientele in such a way as to get to either a working majority, largest party or at least oust the Tories.

    If for now Bassetlaw and Hartlepool are not real targets, where do they go instead? And how?

    If this question is correct, and it's true that lots of target seats are moving away from them, which seats (it has to be a lot) should they move towards instead?

    SKS sounded yesterday like a leader who wasn't sure of the 125 real targets he can get. But he will need to be to survive, and soon.

    This sounds like a good one for a provocative header. :smile:
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049

    Labour would take back Leigh with Burnham IMHO

    Absolutely.

    He has been on of the few impressive labour performers on the national scale during the last 12 months.

    He’s an asset and it would be better for labour to make more of him. He’s also not tainted by the left v right Corbyn schism in labour.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Floater said:

    felix said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    I'd vote for Roger to lead the Labour party - I'd even crowdfund 20 p to help him on his way!
    You must really hate Labour
    Two birds with one stone! :smiley:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    And has for a while. If you set out an easy way for him to rise unchallenged to the leadership then he's your man. He'll not run the risks of the path though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ranking this election's high profile politicians by vote share it looks like we have Down pointing backhand index

    Keycap digit oneBen Houchen (73%)
    Keycap digit twoAndy Burnham (67%)
    Keycap digit threeSteve Rotherham (58%)
    Keycap digit fourAndy Street (49%)
    Keycap digit fiveNicola Sturgeon (48% so far)
    Keycap digit sixSadiq Khan (40% so far)
    Keycap digit sevenMark Drakeford (39.9%)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    2023 here we come! The economy is booming, we've "built back better" and the wheels haven't fallen off (yet)


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Basically same as last time except the Greens have 3 seats more.
    Yep: the Scottish Greens have managed a masterclass of picking up Nationalist tactical voting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Zero change in Scotland at Holyrood from 2016 for the 2 main parties, BBC projects Sturgeon's SNP will get 63 seats, identical to its 2016 pre Brexit total, Ross' Tories will get 31 seats, exactly the same as Davidson got in 2016
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2021

    2023 here we come! The economy is booming, we've "built back better" and the wheels haven't fallen off (yet)


    Thursday 1st June 2023 looks an attractive date for the next general election IMO.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    I said months ago SNP no overall maj was VALUE. Ahem
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    edited May 2021
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    HYUFD said:

    Zero change in Scotland at Holyrood from 2016 for the 2 main parties, BBC projects Sturgeon's SNP will get 63 seats, identical to its 2016 pre Brexit total, Ross' Tories will get 31 seats, exactly the same as Davidson got in 2016

    Roof Davidson overrated then - shows perhaps Cons should be Cons not Lib Dems..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.

    And his example of the price of a bus in London and in Manchester is a good one, a genuine test of levelling up. Its even a policy.
    Labour members must have watched that interview and wept when contrasted to the Starmer pool clip.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Craig Murray's hot take:

    My own brief analysis of what went wrong for Alba.

    With very little mainstream media coverage, and that viciously hostile, we relied very heavily on social media.

    There, we alienated many people by apparent identification with an obsessive and irrational hatred of trans people.


    https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1390994237643165701?s=20

    A stopped clock is right more often....

    Mainstream media influence is dead, social media is where it's at.

    I mean, grr, super powerful mainstream media.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    edited May 2021

    As per usual, NW is a problem area for COVID...

    The former mill town of Bolton has been revealed as the UK hotspot for the new Covid 19 strain detected in India which has been escalated to a 'variant of concern'. Urgent measures to contain the variant are in the works in the town including surge testing and a strengthened vaccination campaign urging people to get the jab.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9557063/Bolton-revealed-UK-hotspot-new-Covid-strain-detected-India.html

    It is, however, worth remembering that none of the vaccines used by the UK government appear to lose any effectiveness against symptomatic infections the Indian strain. So, as our vaccination programme continues, we can expect to see 'hotspots' like this diminish.

    Plus, the reality of that 'hotspot' is (1) we're doing massive amounts of testing there, so will be picking up asymptomatic cases, and (2) the numbers relative to population are still small - well below levels that should be of concern.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    GIN1138 said:

    2023 here we come! The economy is booming, we've "built back better" and the wheels haven't fallen off (yet)


    Thursday 1st June 2023 looks an attractive date for the next general election IMO.
    Watch the Queen’s Speech and the spending review for further evidence. He will want some concrete (literally) achievements to show off in his new seats (whether or not they were actually planned years ago - he’s good at taking credit for his predecessor’s work).
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    edited May 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
    There's no reason to hold an election in 2023 it wouldn't be in December so it would over a year early.

    The Fixed Term Parliaments act is going to be repealed but even so the most likely date of the next General Election is still 2nd of May 2024.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    BBC headline - SNP on course to win but without an overall majority.

    Can someone explain to me what that means?
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Burnham is an impressive communicator... contrast his interview and starmer's...dear oh dear

    If he was leader the Tories would be worried
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited May 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    As per usual, NW is a problem area for COVID...

    The former mill town of Bolton has been revealed as the UK hotspot for the new Covid 19 strain detected in India which has been escalated to a 'variant of concern'. Urgent measures to contain the variant are in the works in the town including surge testing and a strengthened vaccination campaign urging people to get the jab.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9557063/Bolton-revealed-UK-hotspot-new-Covid-strain-detected-India.html

    It is, however, worth remembering that none of the vaccines used by the UK government appear to lose any effectiveness against symptomatic infections the Indian strain. So, as our vaccination programme continues, we can expect to see 'hotspots' like this diminish.

    Plus, the reality of that 'hotspot' is (1) we're doing massive amounts of testing there, so will be picking up asymptomatic cases, and (2) the numbers relative to population are still small - well below levels that should be of concern.
    Yup, there's really no need to panic. I'm reliably informed that the second half of May will be mega for first doses. I think this is linked to the expected approval of Novavax and increased shipments from Moderna.

    Multiple millions of first doses per week until the end of June aiui.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
    Haha - the mask slipped there 'urbane' - so very, very Roger - not a word you hear often up north eh?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,945

    BBC headline - SNP on course to win but without an overall majority.

    Can someone explain to me what that means?

    It means SNP will be the biggest party but not an overall majority.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714

    2023 here we come! The economy is booming, we've "built back better" and the wheels haven't fallen off (yet)


    Sir Keir should just refuse. Use the Keating method:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVuJLiuo5zc&list=TLPQMDgwNTIwMjGR48ppXmKgaw&index=2
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    DavidL said:

    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.

    The whole media in this country with few exceptions is a simple rewrite of press releases and party talking points. Sometimes not even a rewrite.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    DavidL said:

    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.

    She's very annoying because she's good when she's not doing her personal prejudices. Her attacks on Salmond I regard as the worst thing I've ever seen from the BBC.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
    Haha - the mask slipped there 'urbane' - so very, very Roger - not a word you hear often up north eh?
    That extra -e is such a tell... :wink:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    edited May 2021

    Great interview with The King of the North

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1391060146466525186

    Bit confused why you're so supportive of a man who despised Corbyn?
    Because he is a winner like King Mark of Wales


    and despised is not quite true either.

    Not quite sure why you're supportive of SKS he is a useless leader and a total Loser
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.

    And his example of the price of a bus in London and in Manchester is a good one, a genuine test of levelling up. Its even a policy.
    Labour members must have watched that interview and wept when contrasted to the Starmer pool clip.
    I think Starmer is effectively a 'dead man walking' now - apparently form Islington to somehwere north of Watford ffs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    DeClare said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
    There's no reason to hold an election in 2023 it wouldn't be in December so it would over a year early.

    The Fixed Term Parliaments act is going to be repealed but even so the most likely date of the next General Election is still 2nd of May 2024.
    Boris will want to emulate Thatcher and Blair who both held there elections four years apart rather than five.

    Boris will go for it in 2023.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
    I agree it is a tough balancing act. They have a coalition which is falling apart and Brexit accelerated it. But they are not going to win them back by demonising them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.
    I'm not ruling him out but I'm not convinced. He often looks like he needs a wash.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.

    And his example of the price of a bus in London and in Manchester is a good one, a genuine test of levelling up. Its even a policy.
    Labour members must have watched that interview and wept when contrasted to the Starmer pool clip.
    I think Starmer is effectively a 'dead man walking' now - apparently form Islington to somehwere north of Watford ffs.
    Trouble is he does pass the 'can you close your eyes and imagine him walking into No 10 as PM' test.

    But if he can't connect with voters or tell a bold narrative or paint a picture of a better Britain then that test is irrelevant.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,945
    DavidL said:

    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.

    It is what it is. I could say the same about Sophie Ridge, Sam Coates, Rachel Burden, Nicky Campbell, Andrew Neil, Fiona Bruce. At least Labour/Tory/SNP have their cheerleaders.......
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    edited May 2021

    kinabalu said:

    Owen Jones Rose
    @OwenJones84
    ·
    1h
    Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them


    Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.

    Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.

    I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.

    Labour should ban words like "inequality" and "injustice" because voters don't have a clue what they mean? I doubt voters really are that thick.

    But if they are, what do you suggest we talk to them about instead - their favourite shampoo?
    Owen Jones gave some non-shampoo examples. As I posted yesterday they should talk about pay and conditions - specifically the gig economy stuff, lack of security and so on.

    "You'll no longer be one pay cheque away from destitution and losing the roof over your head" is far more direct and promising than "we will tackle inequality wherever we see it & fight for social justice for all."

    And stop banging on about how it is terrible that some people are rich. My experience of voters is they don't really care and just want to know whether their own lives will steadily improve rather than go backwards and especially whether their kids will be alright. Most don't sit around in spasms of jealously and angst that there are rich people in London.

    As a related aside, Philip Gould always used to say one of Labour's problems was it never talked about people's aspirations.
    So did Ken Livingstone.
    Owen' central point is correct, but he is still cherrypicking.

    If Corbyn is to blame, why did Hartlepool’s citizens vote Labour twice under his leadership and in higher numbers than in 2015? What does it tell us, comparing 2017 to this year’s election, that Tories won only 1,210 more votes while Labour has lost more than 13,000?

    Jones is ignoring that Corbyn lost half of those votes in 2019.

    The Lab vote numbers were:

    2015 - 14076
    2017 - 21969
    2019 - 15464
    2021 - 8589
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As per usual, NW is a problem area for COVID...

    The former mill town of Bolton has been revealed as the UK hotspot for the new Covid 19 strain detected in India which has been escalated to a 'variant of concern'. Urgent measures to contain the variant are in the works in the town including surge testing and a strengthened vaccination campaign urging people to get the jab.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9557063/Bolton-revealed-UK-hotspot-new-Covid-strain-detected-India.html

    It is, however, worth remembering that none of the vaccines used by the UK government appear to lose any effectiveness against symptomatic infections the Indian strain. So, as our vaccination programme continues, we can expect to see 'hotspots' like this diminish.

    Plus, the reality of that 'hotspot' is (1) we're doing massive amounts of testing there, so will be picking up asymptomatic cases, and (2) the numbers relative to population are still small - well below levels that should be of concern.
    Yup, there's really no need to panic. I'm reliably informed that the second half of May will be mega for first doses. I think this is linked to the expected approval of Novavax and increased shipments from Moderna.

    Multiple millions of first doses per week until the end of June aiui.
    Yes. Plus...

    (1) We'll be vaccinating older kids before you know it
    (2) Vaccine hesitancy is likely to be lower in the UK than almost anywhere else

    So, my gut is that we'll be at negligible levels of infection by the end of next month.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    edited May 2021
    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor Election looks extremely close to me.

    EDIT: might come down to less than 1,000 votes.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

    Two opinion polls in a row put the Conservatives in the lead in Spain just a week after the socialists were troinced in Madrid and PM Sanchez announced toll charges for all the motorways.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Burnham: "I love it. I sound like Kevin Keagan here (laughs). But I do."

    A tell. He has his eye on the big job, no question.
    Masterclass interview. Streets ahead of Starmer sadly. Actual emotion, passion and communication.

    English devolution. Something to hang a narrative on.

    Labour could do a whole lot worse even though twice they've rejected him.

    And his example of the price of a bus in London and in Manchester is a good one, a genuine test of levelling up. Its even a policy.
    Labour members must have watched that interview and wept when contrasted to the Starmer pool clip.
    I think Starmer is effectively a 'dead man walking' now - apparently form Islington to somehwere north of Watford ffs.
    He's most likely gone. His problem is that he's thin-skinned. He gets uncomfortable all the time. He's not going to be able to get beyond this.

    Shadow Home Sec is his role.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
    And lost for a very good reason that he was an ultra remoaner in a leave Constituency

    Only a brain dead leader would think it a good idea to impose said ultra remoaner in an even more leave By Election area.

    Schoolboy stuff from Dullard Starmer
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As per usual, NW is a problem area for COVID...

    The former mill town of Bolton has been revealed as the UK hotspot for the new Covid 19 strain detected in India which has been escalated to a 'variant of concern'. Urgent measures to contain the variant are in the works in the town including surge testing and a strengthened vaccination campaign urging people to get the jab.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9557063/Bolton-revealed-UK-hotspot-new-Covid-strain-detected-India.html

    It is, however, worth remembering that none of the vaccines used by the UK government appear to lose any effectiveness against symptomatic infections the Indian strain. So, as our vaccination programme continues, we can expect to see 'hotspots' like this diminish.

    Plus, the reality of that 'hotspot' is (1) we're doing massive amounts of testing there, so will be picking up asymptomatic cases, and (2) the numbers relative to population are still small - well below levels that should be of concern.
    Yup, there's really no need to panic. I'm reliably informed that the second half of May will be mega for first doses. I think this is linked to the expected approval of Novavax and increased shipments from Moderna.

    Multiple millions of first doses per week until the end of June aiui.
    Yes. Plus...

    (1) We'll be vaccinating older kids before you know it
    (2) Vaccine hesitancy is likely to be lower in the UK than almost anywhere else

    So, my gut is that we'll be at negligible levels of infection by the end of next month.
    Yes, it's probably time to ramp down the testing regime soon. It's an unnecessary expense at this point.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor Election looks extremely close to me.

    EDIT: might come down to less than 1,000 votes.

    Cambridge transfers will be heavy for Labour - they should win it now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.

    She's very annoying because she's good when she's not doing her personal prejudices. Her attacks on Salmond I regard as the worst thing I've ever seen from the BBC.
    She's not stupid and she is articulate but she is partial. Andrew Neill is clearly of the right (not necessarily a Tory) but he uses his skills to give everyone a hard time. Wark just cheers on those she agrees with, its disgraceful. Agree about the Salmond interview.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As per usual, NW is a problem area for COVID...

    The former mill town of Bolton has been revealed as the UK hotspot for the new Covid 19 strain detected in India which has been escalated to a 'variant of concern'. Urgent measures to contain the variant are in the works in the town including surge testing and a strengthened vaccination campaign urging people to get the jab.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9557063/Bolton-revealed-UK-hotspot-new-Covid-strain-detected-India.html

    It is, however, worth remembering that none of the vaccines used by the UK government appear to lose any effectiveness against symptomatic infections the Indian strain. So, as our vaccination programme continues, we can expect to see 'hotspots' like this diminish.

    Plus, the reality of that 'hotspot' is (1) we're doing massive amounts of testing there, so will be picking up asymptomatic cases, and (2) the numbers relative to population are still small - well below levels that should be of concern.
    Yup, there's really no need to panic. I'm reliably informed that the second half of May will be mega for first doses. I think this is linked to the expected approval of Novavax and increased shipments from Moderna.

    Multiple millions of first doses per week until the end of June aiui.
    Yes. Plus...

    (1) We'll be vaccinating older kids before you know it
    (2) Vaccine hesitancy is likely to be lower in the UK than almost anywhere else

    So, my gut is that we'll be at negligible levels of infection by the end of next month.
    We’re at negligible levels now. The key is keeping them there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Just for fun - how's this was a scenario. Hard Left trigger a leadership election this summer believing this is RBL's moment.

    Can Burnham run as a non-MP?

    Say he wins as a non-MP. Quick by-election engineered?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2021
    DavidL said:

    Kirsty Wark really pisses me off. Once more Labour than Labour, utterly partisan, now more SNP than Nicola. No hint of impartiality. No contra points (such as the small detail of the majority having voted against the second referendum) even put. Just agreeing that Cameron didn't have 48% when he made the referendum for Brexit.

    The Tories and UKIP combined got 50% of the UK vote in 2015 on an EUref platform, the SNP and Greens combined currently only have 48% of the Scottish vote on an indyref2 platform
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    GIN1138 said:

    DeClare said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
    There's no reason to hold an election in 2023 it wouldn't be in December so it would over a year early.

    The Fixed Term Parliaments act is going to be repealed but even so the most likely date of the next General Election is still 2nd of May 2024.
    Boris will want to emulate Thatcher and Blair who both held there elections four years apart rather than five.

    Boris will go for it in 2023.
    But those elections were held after 4 complete years and when their parties were well ahead in the polls.

    If Boris is ahead in the polls two years from now, how does he justify calling an election 19 months early? it will look like unashamed opportunism, he will remember what happened to Mrs May.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
    And lost for a very good reason that he was an ultra remoaner in a leave Constituency

    Only a brain dead leader would think it a good idea to impose said ultra remoaner in an even more leave By Election area.

    Schoolboy stuff from Dullard Starmer
    So just to be clear - you’re saying that Corbyn was a brain dead moron?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    James Palmer (CON) ahead on 1st round. Leading so far on 2nd round about 53% to 47% but Peterborough, Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Council seconds still to come in..

    Conservative James Palmer 93,942 40.5%
    ​​Labour Nik Johnson 76,106 32.8%
    ​​Liberal Democrats Aidan Van der Weyer 61,885 26.7%

    https://www.eastcambs.gov.uk/elections-voting/cambridgeshire-and-peterborough-mayor-election-2021-live-results
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    edited May 2021

    Just for fun - how's this was a scenario. Hard Left trigger a leadership election this summer believing this is RBL's moment.

    Can Burnham run as a non-MP?

    Say he wins as a non-MP. Quick by-election engineered?

    No. Under Labour’s rules, the leader has to be an MP at the time of nomination. Can’t even be a peer.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Just for fun - how's this was a scenario. Hard Left trigger a leadership election this summer believing this is RBL's moment.

    Can Burnham run as a non-MP?

    Say he wins as a non-MP. Quick by-election engineered?

    It all falls apart at the beginning because Labour never remove their leaders. ;)

    Starmer is there until 2023.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,843

    NEW: Andy Burnham says Keir Starmer “gets it”

    Gets what he deserves IMO

    .between the shoulderblades more like....1🤣😍
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Wrong. Hartlepool was the biggie, the order is irrelevant.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    You are in denial

    Labour lost 1 in 5 of all its Council Seats in England
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Central Scotland region

    List MSPs elected

    3 Con
    Stephen Kerr
    Graham Simpson MSP
    Meghan Gallagher

    3 Lab
    Richard Leonard MSP
    Monica Lennon MSP
    Mark Griffin

    1 Green
    Gillian MacKay

    1 Green gain
    1 Labour loss
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor Election looks extremely close to me.

    EDIT: might come down to less than 1,000 votes.

    Cambridge transfers will be heavy for Labour - they should win it now.
    They will, but I think it's South Cambridge District Council that's critical now given it was the LD that was eliminated and they have twice as many seconds in play there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Good interview from Rebecca Long Bailley on the BBC and now Andy Burnham. The natives are getting restless.

    RLB has not spoken to SKS for "a very long time". This seems unwise.

    She’s still sore at being called out for unthinking racism?
    She fell in with a really bad crowd.
    I think when we are judging Starmer for Labour’s dismal performance, we should just pause and remember when he became leader, Labour had just become the second legal political organisation in this country to be investigated for systematic anti-semitism.
    Happening whilst he, the former DPP, sat in the Shadow Cabinet of the Leader of the Opposition who was allowing it to go on unchecked.

    Just to get the top job so he could, er, root out antisemitism.

    I have no time for the man.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    HYUFD said:

    Zero change in Scotland at Holyrood from 2016 for the 2 main parties, BBC projects Sturgeon's SNP will get 63 seats, identical to its 2016 pre Brexit total, Ross' Tories will get 31 seats, exactly the same as Davidson got in 2016

    Yes, its a better performance than I expected in all honesty although the loss of another 2 constituencies is disappointing. The Tory vote in Scotland is solid but small, high 20s. The priority for Unionists is to work together to bring the SNP government down. It can be done but it requires a bit more flexibility on the part of Sarwar and Rennie than we have seen to date.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor Election looks extremely close to me.

    EDIT: might come down to less than 1,000 votes.

    Cambridge transfers will be heavy for Labour - they should win it now.
    They will, but I think it's South Cambridge District Council that's critical now given it was the LD that was eliminated and they have twice as many seconds in play there.
    South Cambridgeshire
    @SouthCambs
    · 5m
    Second Round @chooseyourmayor at South Cambridgeshire:

    - Johnson (Labour & Co-Operative Party): 14,933
    - Palmer (The Conservative Party): 5,359
    Votes reallocated from Van De Weyer (Lib Dem) second preference.

    Looks all over now - Lab GAIN coming..
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    Wightman not in on the H&I list which is a pity
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2021
    DeClare said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DeClare said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
    There's no reason to hold an election in 2023 it wouldn't be in December so it would over a year early.

    The Fixed Term Parliaments act is going to be repealed but even so the most likely date of the next General Election is still 2nd of May 2024.
    Boris will want to emulate Thatcher and Blair who both held there elections four years apart rather than five.

    Boris will go for it in 2023.
    But those elections were held after 4 complete years and when their parties were well ahead in the polls.

    If Boris is ahead in the polls two years from now, how does he justify calling an election 19 months early? it will look like unashamed opportunism, he will remember what happened to Mrs May.
    "I personally think the government needs to renew it's mandate with the British public every four years. I could have waited to exactly four years but I don't want the British people voting on a cold and dark December day ever again so we'll have a summer election just short of four years. Oh and by the way just look at these tax cuts I've got lined up for the blue/red wall"

    Something like that I should imagine... ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    edited May 2021
    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
    Haha - the mask slipped there 'urbane' - so very, very Roger - not a word you hear often up north eh?
    I like a chuckle with you, Felix, you know that. But I'm not looking for laughs on this one, I'm interpreting Roger for you - serious work - and it's a serious point being made. So if you can just for a second replace woolly bonnet with thinking cap. Just this once please. Point is, there's a risk of chasing hardcore Leavers so hard that we piss off Remainers, yes? - Yes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
    And lost for a very good reason that he was an ultra remoaner in a leave Constituency

    Only a brain dead leader would think it a good idea to impose said ultra remoaner in an even more leave By Election area.

    Schoolboy stuff from Dullard Starmer
    So just to be clear - you’re saying that Corbyn was a brain dead moron?
    For allowing a GE in Dec 2019 yes very much so

    But Compared to the useless bugger in charge now he was a master strategist
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    James Palmer (CON) ahead on 1st round. Leading so far on 2nd round about 53% to 47% but Peterborough, Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Council seconds still to come in..

    Conservative James Palmer 93,942 40.5%
    ​​Labour Nik Johnson 76,106 32.8%
    ​​Liberal Democrats Aidan Van der Weyer 61,885 26.7%

    https://www.eastcambs.gov.uk/elections-voting/cambridgeshire-and-peterborough-mayor-election-2021-live-results

    South Cambridgeshire's in, and the gap is down to about 2000;
    https://twitter.com/PhilRodgers/status/1391069745319981057?s=19
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    You are in denial

    Labour lost 1 in 5 of all its Council Seats in England
    Yes. “Labour does well in Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol and Wales” is as redundant a statement as “Tories do well in rural East Mids and Essex”.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Zero change in Scotland at Holyrood from 2016 for the 2 main parties, BBC projects Sturgeon's SNP will get 63 seats, identical to its 2016 pre Brexit total, Ross' Tories will get 31 seats, exactly the same as Davidson got in 2016

    Yes, its a better performance than I expected in all honesty although the loss of another 2 constituencies is disappointing. The Tory vote in Scotland is solid but small, high 20s. The priority for Unionists is to work together to bring the SNP government down. It can be done but it requires a bit more flexibility on the part of Sarwar and Rennie than we have seen to date.
    Still too fastidious about gaming the system obvs. I'm sure they can be worked upon!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    I went onto the Bradford council website to see if our ward defeat had been confirmed....

    LABOUR GAIN!!!!

    A bright spot amongst the gloom.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Expect unionists in Scotland, plus UK govt, to trumpet the following stat:

    constituency votes for SNP + Green: 1,274,977
    for Tories + Labour + LDs: 1,326,149

    Very, very close (and let's see what list vote shows) but anti-referendum parties have won more support than pro.


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1391067937814061061?s=20

    "Now is not the time"

    Worked last time.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Highland regional MSPs

    4 Conservatives
    Douglas Ross
    Edward Mountain MSP
    Donald Cameron MSP
    Jamie Halcro Johnston MSP

    1 Greens
    Ariane Burgess

    1 Labour
    Rhoda Grant MSP

    1 SNP
    Emma Roddick

    Con +1
    Lab -1
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
    And lost for a very good reason that he was an ultra remoaner in a leave Constituency

    Only a brain dead leader would think it a good idea to impose said ultra remoaner in an even more leave By Election area.

    Schoolboy stuff from Dullard Starmer
    So just to be clear - you’re saying that Corbyn was a brain dead moron?
    I thought everyone knew that, unless they were also of similar capacity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Do people seriously think less of Starmer because Hartlepudlians and their ilk voted Tory?

    I remember when Labour Wolverhampton came out in their droves to support Enoch Powell followed by the dockers and porters who marched through London. There are some very illiberal people who vote Labour and if they prefer Tory/UKIP so be it

    Starmer shouldn't be 'listening'. We know the sound of the 'Little Englanders' He should set out a vision of liberal inclusiveness and if Labour's traditional supporters don't like it then go for constituencies that do. Johnson's welcome to the his 'Red Wall'. They deserve each other.

    Labour probably can't win an election without the votes of people like those in Hartlepool and similar areas.
    That’s the thing. They want the votes of these people and these seats but they don’t want anything to do with them or to listen to what their issues are as they clash with the labour worldview.
    It's a balance. Roger makes a good point in an unconventional catchy way. And the point is that Labour need to try and win WWC Leavers back, but not chase that vote to the exclusion of all else, in the process junking the core progressive values which keep their new base of urbane metropolitan Remainers onboard.

    Edit: urban.
    I agree it is a tough balancing act. They have a coalition which is falling apart and Brexit accelerated it. But they are not going to win them back by demonising them.
    Of course. 100% agreed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    Burnham is an impressive communicator... contrast his interview and starmer's...dear oh dear

    If he was leader the Tories would be worried

    As I have said before. But I then get told he would be a cause of Labour civil war. So what do I know?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Staffs results are painful for Labour.

    Tories 57 +7
    Labour 4 -6
    Independent 1 -1 (although actually both independents lost their seats, but a different one won Stone from the Tories)

    Continuing the trend since a brutal pounding in 2009 (where they lost 29 of their 32 seats and an OM) that this is not a happy hunting ground for Labour.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited May 2021
    West Mids Mayor - Dudley - not at all close

    Street: 50787
    Byrne: 21040

    Up shy of 20k on 2017.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,843
    edited May 2021

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Good interview from Rebecca Long Bailley on the BBC and now Andy Burnham. The natives are getting restless.

    RLB has not spoken to SKS for "a very long time". This seems unwise.

    She’s still sore at being called out for unthinking racism?
    She fell in with a really bad crowd.
    I think when we are judging Starmer for Labour’s dismal performance, we should just pause and remember when he became leader, Labour had just become the second legal political organisation in this country to be investigated for systematic anti-semitism.
    Happening whilst he, the former DPP, sat in the Shadow Cabinet of the Leader of the Opposition who was allowing it to go on unchecked.

    Just to get the top job so he could, er, root out antisemitism.

    I have no time for the man.
    Burnham, who has been touted as some form of messiah stood for the leadership twice iirc in 2010 and 2015. I don't recall much about 2010 but in 2015 he was hard noticeable and lost badly. Yvette was touted, same applies.. Labour need someone with real charisma. None of them have it and none of them can out Boris...Boris... their only hope is to force Boris to resign...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC projection of seats in Scottish parliament
    SNP 63 (no change from 2016)
    Con 31 (no change)
    Lab 22 -2
    Green 9 +3
    Lib Dem 4 -1


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1391056077786124294?s=20

    Disappointing for Sarwar. Its a great pity that SLAB dithered and did not replace their totally incompetent and useless leader last year. Sarwar needed more time than he got.
    Did Labour take one for the team north of the border?
    No, SKS dithered and left Corbyn's incompetent northern friend in office for too long.
    Whist Corbyns competent friend became King of Wales, more popular than ever, and Corbyns competent friend became King of the West

    Starmers incompetent leadership lost 20% of all Labour seats in England and his incompetent friend lost Hartlepool by a landslide thanks to his even more incompetent friend Lord Mandy.
    Paul Williams won election to Parliament under Corbyn and lost his seat under him as well.
    And lost for a very good reason that he was an ultra remoaner in a leave Constituency

    Only a brain dead leader would think it a good idea to impose said ultra remoaner in an even more leave By Election area.

    Schoolboy stuff from Dullard Starmer
    So just to be clear - you’re saying that Corbyn was a brain dead moron?
    I thought everyone knew that, unless they were also of similar capacity.
    Yes, but I’m surprised I got a Corbynista to finally admit it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    GIN1138 said:

    DeClare said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy Burnham tells Sky News he has no current plans to run for Labour leader, but adds that 'in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch'.

    Anyone know how to get in touch?

    #getintouchwithAndy

    Sounds like he wants SKS to suffer one more general election defeat in 2023 and then he'll be ready to serve. By the end of this decade Labour might be back in power with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister IMO.
    There's no reason to hold an election in 2023 it wouldn't be in December so it would over a year early.

    The Fixed Term Parliaments act is going to be repealed but even so the most likely date of the next General Election is still 2nd of May 2024.
    Boris will want to emulate Thatcher and Blair who both held there elections four years apart rather than five.

    Boris will go for it in 2023.
    Spring 2024 is four and a half years. That sounds more likely to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    I think it is fair to say that Middlesex have taken a pounding here.

    As for Gloucestershire winning four of their first five matches (and drawing the other) I’m thinking nobody saw that coming!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    On average only 80% of LDs have given a second preference for either CON or LAB so far.

    Then, applying that to the outsanding areas and assuming the following splits:

    Cambridge City 20% (CON) 80% (LAB)
    South Cam DC 37% (CON) 63% (LAB)
    Peterborough 44% (CON) 54% (LAB)

    Palmer wins 50.02% to 49.98% ... by 92 votes.

    However, he might only get 30% in South Cams, totally bomb in Cambridge City and disappoint in Peterborough, in which case Johnson wins 51% to 49% and by 4,500 votes.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Expect unionists in Scotland, plus UK govt, to trumpet the following stat:

    constituency votes for SNP + Green: 1,274,977
    for Tories + Labour + LDs: 1,326,149

    Very, very close (and let's see what list vote shows) but anti-referendum parties have won more support than pro.


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1391067937814061061?s=20

    "Now is not the time"

    Worked last time.

    “Let’s spend £Xm on the NHS, not another pointless referendum”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor Election looks extremely close to me.

    EDIT: might come down to less than 1,000 votes.

    Cambridge transfers will be heavy for Labour - they should win it now.
    They will, but I think it's South Cambridge District Council that's critical now given it was the LD that was eliminated and they have twice as many seconds in play there.
    South Cambridgeshire
    @SouthCambs
    · 5m
    Second Round @chooseyourmayor at South Cambridgeshire:

    - Johnson (Labour & Co-Operative Party): 14,933
    - Palmer (The Conservative Party): 5,359
    Votes reallocated from Van De Weyer (Lib Dem) second preference.

    Looks all over now - Lab GAIN coming..
    Yes, at those numbers - it does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2021
    Ha, Ha. SNP MSP says 'not the end of the world' if referendum takes another decade, suits Boris fine

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-msp-says-not-the-end-of-world-if-referendum-takes-another-decade-3229522
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    West Mids Mayor - Dudley - not at all close

    Street: 50787
    Byrne: 21040

    Up shy of 20k on 2017.

    King of, err, the middle bit. King of the middle bit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Off topic, for those interested in the 2024 GOP nomination betting:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/05/tim-scott-front-runner-for-2024/

    Personally, I don't see it, not because he is Black but because, for the current GOP, (1) Scott is seen as a little bit too pro-compromise and (2) I think a Governor will be in the best position for the nomination given they will have a track record to show. So I would still be very much DeSantis as the favourite as things stand now but I could definitely see Scott as the VP pick in 2024.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited May 2021

    Binface holding steady at 1% in all still counting boroughs - will be close around the 20K Jackpot threshold but I am going to call it for him with errrmm 21,076 votes

    The Binface operation has beaten Corbyn and Peter Gammons. Other parties will be poring over it, inevitably.
    Has any other party made an election song like Binface ? (70K views on youtube)
    Screaming Lord Sutch, in his heyday, was a 1960s psychedelic musician, but I don't know if he made any songs specifically for elections.
    Not sure IF this was for election broadcast, but believe it was a critique of the Macmillan-Hume administration?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ibx1wZoqQIY
    There's great footage (from BBC election night coverage) of Screaming Lord Sutch and Harold Wilson on same state in Huyton in 1966 when His Lordship ran against the PM as candidate for the National Teenage Party (at the age of 26) and received 585.

    This was Sutch's first general election; he first stood for MP at the 1963 Stratford-on-Avon byelection triggered by resignation of . . . wait for it . . . John Profumo, where he garnered 208 votes.

    Or was it 209? Wiki says both!
    Sutch was a bit of an underrated cultural phenomenon himself. You can trace his career to the beginning of the end of the age of deference, but his whole persona carried a certain amount of vaudevillian old world into 1960's British psychedelia, at the same time. At the beginning, the Rolling Stones and Sutch's bands swapped a few members, and Mick Jagger definitely borrowed something from him with his top hats and "black majesty" persona.

    By the 1990s he was sometimes seen as a throwback, but in the 1960s he was part of the fabric of the change in the culture of things, and he left something unique on the culture of British elections permanently - hence Binface.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679
    I hear a Burnham train pulling out of the station. Choo choo! ...
This discussion has been closed.