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It looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days – politicalbetting.co

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 7 in General
imageIt looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days – politicalbetting.com

After the overnight results in the Hartlepool by-election and several local council elections, things look very good for the Tories in the first set of elections since the general election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    The Midlands looks terminal to any Labour recovery. Shall be watching those results with interest after Nuneaton and Dudley....
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,471
    Please. Let's talk Leader of the Opposition ratings.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    This is another key test for Starmer. Will he now purge Momentum. If you can be a member of Momentum and a member of Labour then the party has zero chance of recapturing seats like Hartlepool.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
    Which is obviously absurd although he is not blameless. Labour still haven't even attempted to answer the question of what comes next. What is clear is that brand loyalty alone is not going to do it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Labour are in such trouble. Possibly terminal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Labour are in such trouble. Possibly terminal.
    I liked this response

    https://twitter.com/enduringrich/status/1390551173988560896

    The manifesto which *checks notes* led to one of the biggest Labour defeats ever...that manifesto?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    But, but, everyone they speak to on twitter agrees. And they get so many retweets.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,306
    I remember when Mike was tweeting subsamples showing Starmer making huge gains in northern England :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    This. 1000x this.

    Gavin Barwell
    @GavinBarwell
    ·
    2h
    More important is the realignment in England & Wales. This has been building for a long time & is not just about Brexit. In many parts of the world, politics is becoming less about economics and more about culture, allowing the centre right to win more working class support 5/n



    Labour have to get it back to economics by thinking big, as I posted on last thread. Something massive and bold. And maybe the post covid will inflate into a stinking mess and Labour finally have a chance in 2024.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 7
    DavidL said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    But, but, everyone they speak to on twitter agrees. And they get so many retweets.
    And the few that don't, are nazi racists who won't take the knee for BLM...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    edited May 7
    The rest of the @GavinBarwell thread is worth a read on Lab's problems.

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1390557373648023558
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    tlg86 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
    Cancel that part of the West Midlands.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,306
    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,224

    Yes, indeed :smile:

    In honour of the glorious win in our new heartland of Hartlepool, I’ve had a go at immortalizing the political moment epigrammatically in the traditional manner of the old: with an elegiac couplet or two. Ahem:

    INSTAR MERITUM:

    principis aurata muros candescere charta
    ______ingemis, et quanti quis dederitque rogas.
    heu, tibi quid paries, partes cum sede repulsae?
    ______aurea dum spectas, moenia rubra cadunt.


    A WELL-EARNED IMAGE:

    ‘The PM’s walls in Number 10 gleam bright with gilded leaf!’
    _____you wail, and quiz ‘How much, and who’s been doling?’
    Alas, what good’s a party-wall when your party’s lost its seat?
    _____While it’s at walls of gold you gape, the Red Wall keeps on falling.

    Bravo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    DavidL said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    But, but, everyone they speak to on twitter agrees. And they get so many retweets.
    And everyone at the Avocado & Olive art hub eco cafe in South London agrees. :smiley:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,499

    Please. Let's talk Leader of the Opposition ratings.

    Troubling that @Isam is still banned. Right up his street.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 67

    Yes, indeed :smile:

    In honour of the glorious win in our new heartland of Hartlepool, I’ve had a go at immortalizing the political moment epigrammatically in the traditional manner of the old: with an elegiac couplet or two. Ahem:

    INSTAR MERITUM:

    principis aurata muros candescere charta
    ______ingemis, et quanti quis dederitque rogas.
    heu, tibi quid paries, partes cum sede repulsae?
    ______aurea dum spectas, moenia rubra cadunt.


    A WELL-EARNED IMAGE:

    ‘The PM’s walls in Number 10 gleam bright with gilded leaf!’
    _____you wail, and quiz ‘How much, and who’s been doling?’
    Alas, what good’s a party-wall when your party’s lost its seat?
    _____While it’s at walls of gold you gape, the Red Wall keeps on falling.

    As a onetime classics scholar I must say this is rather good.

    Perhaps we can have a mournful farewell to Starmer done in the style of Catullus?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,471
    tlg86 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
    "The fact we still segregate in this country is a national disgrace"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Labour are in such trouble. Possibly terminal.
    I liked this response

    https://twitter.com/enduringrich/status/1390551173988560896

    The manifesto which *checks notes* led to one of the biggest Labour defeats ever...that manifesto?
    Yeh, but, yeh, but the policies were popular and the leader would have been popular if he hadn't been assaulted on a daily basis by the capitalist foreign owners of the newspapers and Laura K.

    Or something like that...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964
    I suspect certain Tory strategists will be delighting in the demise of the UKIP/REf vote. It was 2 years ago that they had that hammering in the Euros at the hands of Farage and Swinson.... my how times change....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963

    tlg86 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
    "The fact we still segregate in this country is a national disgrace"
    Brummies are happy for the Yam yams to be in their own segregated area thanks. :wink:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,838
    All Labour can hope for is that this was last belch of Brexit - a final jolly with Boris and all that naughtiness - before the cold winds blow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Weee owen is a bit touchy this morning...

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1390591594856951809?s=19
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,718

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,471

    tlg86 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
    "The fact we still segregate in this country is a national disgrace"
    Brummies are happy for the Yam yams to be in their own segregated area thanks. :wink:
    ... and we can all throw stones at Rugeley
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963

    I suspect certain Tory strategists will be delighting in the demise of the UKIP/REf vote. It was 2 years ago that they had that hammering in the Euros at the hands of Farage and Swinson.... my how times change....

    The "how times change" is Labour's last hope I suspect. The pendulum swing and all that. Time for change. But in Germany the pendulum is swinging to Greens not SPD.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    and hope that D Cummings's cardboard box from No 10 doesnt have any more interesting dossiers/snippets
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 7
    Guardian....

    Noel Clarke accused of sexual harassment on Doctor Who set
    Exclusive: BBC faces questions as further allegations made about Clarke – and co-star John Barrowman
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,306

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Or indeed to learn.

    Complacency and slackness need to be avoided if Boris, the Conservatives and far more importantly the country are to avoid problems.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1390533259600318467

    "Labour source: Just because we have stopped pissing in the bath doesn’t mean people want to jump in with us straight away"

    :smiley:
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,718

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    and hope that D Cummings's cardboard box from No 10 doesnt have any more interesting dossiers/snippets
    Cummings was always someone to keep 'on side' regardless of if he was working at No10 or not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    BROKEN, SLEAZY TORIES ON THE RISE!

    :open_mouth:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Starmer should be made to read: "White working class" by Joan Williams and "The once and future liberal" by Mark Lilla.

    Both American, but plenty to say on same predicaments that Labour are stuck on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Ouch

    https://twitter.com/addicted2newz/status/1390486757460807681

    Labour: "We are the party of working people..."

    "Errr, can I stop you there. It appears you are not the party of working people."
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
    Which is obviously absurd although he is not blameless. Labour still haven't even attempted to answer the question of what comes next. What is clear is that brand loyalty alone is not going to do it.
    A Jacinda Ardern figure according to some on Twitter is what Hartlepool is waiting for apparently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354

    The rest of the @GavinBarwell thread is worth a read on Lab's problems.

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1390557373648023558

    His two key points are that the Tories are now a tax and spend party, and that the centre-left is divided.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    edited May 7
    Northstar said:

    Yes, indeed :smile:

    In honour of the glorious win in our new heartland of Hartlepool, I’ve had a go at immortalizing the political moment epigrammatically in the traditional manner of the old: with an elegiac couplet or two. Ahem:

    INSTAR MERITUM:

    principis aurata muros candescere charta
    ______ingemis, et quanti quis dederitque rogas.
    heu, tibi quid paries, partes cum sede repulsae?
    ______aurea dum spectas, moenia rubra cadunt.


    A WELL-EARNED IMAGE:

    ‘The PM’s walls in Number 10 gleam bright with gilded leaf!’
    _____you wail, and quiz ‘How much, and who’s been doling?’
    Alas, what good’s a party-wall when your party’s lost its seat?
    _____While it’s at walls of gold you gape, the Red Wall keeps on falling.

    As a onetime classics scholar I must say this is rather good.

    Perhaps we can have a mournful farewell to Starmer done in the style of Catullus?
    I rather wonder if BB would prefer something like Pliny the Younger's account of the eruption of Vesuvius (inappropriate as that is for something so long foreseen by the local Sibyls on PB).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    BROKEN, SLEAZY TORIES ON THE RISE!

    :open_mouth:

    So - it's not curtains for the tories just yet?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Yeh but they know who Corbyn is and they know they don't want anything to do with a party he is leading or involved with or has influence in.

    Some Lab wit commented that the party is suffering from "long Corbyn".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    edited May 7
    Floater said:

    BROKEN, SLEAZY TORIES ON THE RISE!

    :open_mouth:

    So - it's not curtains for the tories just yet?
    They are just papering over the cracks.

    But sofa so good.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,012
    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Thing is - and bear in mind I don't support Labour or their policies - it may be that Burgon has a point!

    And now you have all stopped laughing at that thought, consider that there are a number of policies from the last manifesto which have clear public support. Renationalisation of the railways being one of them. Now it is something I would vehemently object to but I am not the target audience and I think it is something that would be very popular amongst those former Labour voters in the red wall seats.

    What Labour have to do is differentiate between the widespread fear and revulsion of Corbyn and the support for some (but by no means all) of the policies that Labour were advocating in 2019. Starmer can be PM. He has 3 years to get it right and he has the basics. People don't fear him and he has many decent political qualities. I suspect he is a decent man. These things matter and give him a base to build on.

    I am making no bets at all on 2024 at the moment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    Floater said:

    Ouch

    https://twitter.com/addicted2newz/status/1390486757460807681

    Labour: "We are the party of working people..."

    "Errr, can I stop you there. It appears you are not the party of working people."

    We are the party of public sector working people would be better description.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    tlg86 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    Not just Boris is racist, everything is racist...
    There was a Labour guy on Sky early this morning at the Dudley counts and he kept referring to "the black country". I reckon there would have been a few people wondering what he was talking about!
    "The fact we still segregate in this country is a national disgrace"
    Brummies are happy for the Yam yams to be in their own segregated area thanks. :wink:
    Never heard that expression before! Had to look it up (with crossed fingers).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    One of these days, they’ll realise that they all need to get off Twitter and into the real world. Obviously the point hasn’t hit them on the head just quite yet...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
    Which is obviously absurd although he is not blameless. Labour still haven't even attempted to answer the question of what comes next. What is clear is that brand loyalty alone is not going to do it.
    A Jacinda Ardern figure according to some on Twitter is what Hartlepool is waiting for apparently.
    A Labour politician who understands the value of controlling your own borders? I can see their point...
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,471
    Just remember - "But 2017" is an epitaph not an argument.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    Great take from a blue tick diehard remainer on Twitter. Labour are losing out because people want a society that is unfair on others and not them !!

    https://twitter.com/paulbernaluk/status/1390549022369267717?s=21
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,308
    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?

    Yes, it's very likely. I expect the announcement will come with the approval of Novavax as that will plug the supply gap of not using AZ.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354
    Look on the bright side, the strung out nature of these counts means that the BBC Election 2021 coverage will be giving its death of Philip coverage a run for its money. On the News Channel, if not on the others.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,354

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    and hope that D Cummings's cardboard box from No 10 doesnt have any more interesting dossiers/snippets
    Cummings was always someone to keep 'on side' regardless of if he was working at No10 or not.
    The PM is much better at making enemies than friends.

    Mrs May is sitting there, waiting for her chance, and she isn't the only one.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40

    Red, Red Whine
    Oh bravo sir! Bravo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 7
    While Labour councillors have been banging on about Free Palestine on the campaign trail...the government talking about the bins.

    A new battle plan will mean that every home in England will stick to the same system to recycle plastic, paper and other materials.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14875570/council-end-barmy-recycling-postcode-lottery
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    IanB2 said:

    Look on the bright side, the strung out nature of these counts means that the BBC Election 2021 coverage will be giving its death of Philip coverage a run for its money. On the News Channel, if not on the others.

    Strung out for eight days, until Labour’s funeral?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
    Which is obviously absurd although he is not blameless. Labour still haven't even attempted to answer the question of what comes next. What is clear is that brand loyalty alone is not going to do it.
    A Jacinda Ardern figure according to some on Twitter is what Hartlepool is waiting for apparently.
    To be fair, a woke middle class but inoffensive leader who didn't win an election but was able to do a deal with a far right nationalist party might just work...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1390585426931499013

    When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction

    Classic Dom :lol:

    Is this Boris being lucky again? Now is the time for Dom to claim some reflected glory in the triumph, not throw his toys out the pram when no one is listening. He knows that, Boris knows that. The media may once again be disappointed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Mr. Borough, aye, thanks for posting that Barwell thread.

    Labour isn't just fighting the last war, it's fighting the last war badly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    edited May 7
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?

    Yes, it's very likely. I expect the announcement will come with the approval of Novavax as that will plug the supply gap of not using AZ.
    Do you think those of us under 40 who've just been given an AZ first dose will still get an AZ second in about 10-12 weeks time after the first?

    Or get a second of something else? Which could potentially be sooner?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    One of these days, they’ll realise that they all need to get off Twitter and into the real world. Obviously the point hasn’t hit them on the head just quite yet...
    Once Scott P stops posting we might be able to conclude the message has got through. He's the PB bellweather IMO.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    BROKEN, SLEAZY TORIES ON THE RISE!

    :open_mouth:

    So - it's not curtains for the tories just yet?
    They are just papering over the cracks.

    But sofa so good.
    The electorate are very practical.

    "We've gone to all the expense of putting the bloody wallpaper in so we might as well get some use out of it before the next guy replaces it"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I am guessing Labour will be down 400-450 councillors by the time this is over. That's just appalling.

    It’s all Corbyn fault according to some !
    Which is obviously absurd although he is not blameless. Labour still haven't even attempted to answer the question of what comes next. What is clear is that brand loyalty alone is not going to do it.
    A Jacinda Ardern figure according to some on Twitter is what Hartlepool is waiting for apparently.
    A Labour politician who understands the value of controlling your own borders? I can see their point...
    But not in ordering vaccines...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1390585426931499013

    When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction

    Classic Dom :lol:

    Is this Boris being lucky again? Now is the time for Dom to claim some reflected glory in the triumph, not throw his toys out the pram when no one is listening. He knows that, Boris knows that. The media may once again be disappointed.
    Feels a bit like that. And...

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1390594515505930241

    KS is a beta-lawyer-gamma-politician, like ~all in SW1 he obsesses on Media Reality not Actual Reality, he’s played the lobby game (badly) for a year WITHOUT A MESSAGE TO THE COUNTRY, now the pundits will a/ savage him, b/ tell him he needs to focus on them more, more exclusives!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Northstar said:

    Yes, indeed :smile:

    In honour of the glorious win in our new heartland of Hartlepool, I’ve had a go at immortalizing the political moment epigrammatically in the traditional manner of the old: with an elegiac couplet or two. Ahem:

    INSTAR MERITUM:

    principis aurata muros candescere charta
    ______ingemis, et quanti quis dederitque rogas.
    heu, tibi quid paries, partes cum sede repulsae?
    ______aurea dum spectas, moenia rubra cadunt.


    A WELL-EARNED IMAGE:

    ‘The PM’s walls in Number 10 gleam bright with gilded leaf!’
    _____you wail, and quiz ‘How much, and who’s been doling?’
    Alas, what good’s a party-wall when your party’s lost its seat?
    _____While it’s at walls of gold you gape, the Red Wall keeps on falling.

    As a onetime classics scholar I must say this is rather good.

    Perhaps we can have a mournful farewell to Starmer done in the style of Catullus?
    Thank you very much. As and when poor old Keir departs the scene walking a bit funny like Attis, I think I could even stretch to some galliambics :smile:
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    Late to the fray, but I'd like to claim some bragging rights for my Hartlepool prediction yesterday, as I wasn't far off:

    I expect Tories to sail home in Hartlepool with a majority of around 6,000. It will be a Labour massacre, but still unsurprising. Labour will lose some 2019 votes through indifference, some 2019 Labour will go Tory, and virtually all of the 2019 Brexit voters that bother to turn out will go Tory. Bad news for Labour, but not signifying a great deal in the medium to long term.

    Were it not for the fact both Rochdale and myself called it without seconds of the byelection being announced I would give you that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,164
    Curtice analysis:

    "The results so far from the BBC's key wards shows that Leave and working class areas are moving more strongly to the Conservatives than are Remain and more middle class places.

    In the most Leave voting areas where the last local elections were in 2016, the swing from Labour to Conservative is averaging 12 points. In contrast, in the most Remain voting areas there is currently hardly any swing to Conservatives at all.

    In those wards where the last electoral contest was in 2017, there is a four point swing to the Conservatives in the most pro-Leave areas, but a 5 point swing to Labour in the most pro-Remain wards.

    This latter pattern means that we can anticipate some Labour gains in places where the last election was in 2017.

    In the most working class wards the swing since 2016 is averaging 12 points, whereas it is only 3 points in more middle class areas.

    In wards last contested in 2017, the swing to the Conservatives is 4 points in the most working class areas, while there is a 4 point swing to Labour in the most middle class ones.

    These figures illustrate the lack of progress that Labour has made in reconnecting with working class voters since the general election."

    So it just might get less bad as the results become more southern.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    IanB2 said:

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    and hope that D Cummings's cardboard box from No 10 doesnt have any more interesting dossiers/snippets
    Cummings was always someone to keep 'on side' regardless of if he was working at No10 or not.
    The PM is much better at making enemies than friends.

    Mrs May is sitting there, waiting for her chance, and she isn't the only one.
    That will be the PM who lost her majority being against the PM who has just won an 82 seat majority?

    With enemies like that, who needs friends?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Alex Cole-Hamilton has hyped the fuck out of turnout in Ed West.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 7,934

    While Labour councillors have been banging on about Free Palestine on the campaign trail...the government talking about the bins.

    A new battle plan will mean that every home in England will stick to the same system to recycle plastic, paper and other materials.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14875570/council-end-barmy-recycling-postcode-lottery

    That is sensible!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    We've got another day of people who spend every hour God sends tweeting "Brexit's a disaster!!!", "Boris is a racist!!!" "The Tories killed the Covid dead!!!!" wailing "what happened!?!?!?". I'll tell you what happened. The real world poked its annoying nose into politics again.

    One of these days, they’ll realise that they all need to get off Twitter and into the real world. Obviously the point hasn’t hit them on the head just quite yet...
    Very many moons ago when I joined all the other bright eyed and fresh faced Oxbridge graduates in Newcastle in a marketing department the head of Consumer Research gave us a pep talk. "On Sunday go down to the Market on the Quayside. These people are your consumers. There are very many more of them than there are of you. They pay your wages." Took the wind out of a few presumptuous sails.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,308

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?

    Yes, it's very likely. I expect the announcement will come with the approval of Novavax as that will plug the supply gap of not using AZ.
    Do you think those of us under 40 who've just been given an AZ first dose will still get an AZ second in about 10-12 weeks time after the first?

    Or get a second of something else? Which could potentially be sooner?
    I'm not sure, but I have had a friend who got a second Pfizer after a first AZ about 8 weeks later.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    MaxPB said:

    In other virus news, the Indian variant has not got the E484K mutation that seems to be related to vaccine efficacy dilution so it's not going to make any difference to our unlockdown.

    Good news.

    (For the vaccinated West anyway, clearly not for India which is a horrible mess).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,485

    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Thing is - and bear in mind I don't support Labour or their policies - it may be that Burgon has a point!

    And now you have all stopped laughing at that thought, consider that there are a number of policies from the last manifesto which have clear public support. Renationalisation of the railways being one of them. Now it is something I would vehemently object to but I am not the target audience and I think it is something that would be very popular amongst those former Labour voters in the red wall seats.

    What Labour have to do is differentiate between the widespread fear and revulsion of Corbyn and the support for some (but by no means all) of the policies that Labour were advocating in 2019. Starmer can be PM. He has 3 years to get it right and he has the basics. People don't fear him and he has many decent political qualities. I suspect he is a decent man. These things matter and give him a base to build on.

    I am making no bets at all on 2024 at the moment.
    If "renationalisation" was possible for something always owned by the state, the Tories have done it. Labour had a lot of policies that the Tories were happy to attack when Labour proposed them but happy to champion them when they are doing them.

    The Tories are Labour of old if you are northern ex Labour voters and Labour are the sneering condescending metropolitan elite Tories of old.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    New thread damnit ...

    FPT

    So Labour lefties think that the reason they lost Hartlepool was because they weren't loony lefty enough? And the response to the huge defeat there is to double down on Corbyn policies? If that is the case they are deluded beyond belief. Sorry, Jezziah, but your diagnosis is so, so wrong.

    In trying to hold both the metro elite and the working class Labour vote together SKS has an impossible task: you can't take the knee wrapped in the Union flag and please both constituencies; you end up alienating both of them. He needs to choose, as Casino mentioned upthread.

    Despite people on the left of centre deriding the "culture war" as non-existent, to me it is very real. I was amazed by last evening's discussion on here that so many people had never experienced the impact of wokeness as work. I work for a large US (East Coast) global corporation and our senior management and HR are obsessed by it - our cooperate intranet is like the BBC home page with article after article on E, D & I. Maybe smaller UK firms have yet to be afflicted by it but if anyone has access to the CIPD magazine you will get an idea what is coming in terms of UK HR - the CIPD has bought into the woke agenda hook, line and sinker.

    This stuff is not going away. The people of Hartlepool may not be exposed to it in the workplace (yet) but they can see the way it is affecting popular culture and they don't like it.

    For now, the Conservatives have parked their tanks on Labour's lawn when it comes to government spending and Boris is seen as standing up for traditional British values. Labour's only response to government spending is to spend more, which lacks credibility, and it appears to be actively against traditional British values.

    So what does Labour do? Is the plan to sit and wait for the Tories to implode (most likely when the COVID spending chickens come home to roost), keep the fragile coalition together and hope that by that time demographics have worked in its favour? It might work but it doesn't really address the fundamental issue of where it stands on the British values question.

    Blair won for a reason; when the time came, mainstream Britain was not repelled by Labour. It is now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    My Dad said the Tile Hill North

    https://bit.ly/3vSHKMv

    box was good for the Tories in Coventry. Street more nailed on than a nailed on thing.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,838

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    Conceivably the sleaze stuff helped Boris in this instance. Perhaps the cry was, 'He's our Boris and we're not going to let carping about wallpaper distract us from our duty: to show our admiration, gratitude and respect.'
  • FossFoss Posts: 417
    Any news out of London? Betfair has Khan at 1/50 and it almost feels like free money.
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?

    Yes, it's very likely. I expect the announcement will come with the approval of Novavax as that will plug the supply gap of not using AZ.
    35-40’s are already getting AZ

    Had mine yesterday.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195

    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Thing is - and bear in mind I don't support Labour or their policies - it may be that Burgon has a point!

    And now you have all stopped laughing at that thought, consider that there are a number of policies from the last manifesto which have clear public support. Renationalisation of the railways being one of them. Now it is something I would vehemently object to but I am not the target audience and I think it is something that would be very popular amongst those former Labour voters in the red wall seats.

    What Labour have to do is differentiate between the widespread fear and revulsion of Corbyn and the support for some (but by no means all) of the policies that Labour were advocating in 2019. Starmer can be PM. He has 3 years to get it right and he has the basics. People don't fear him and he has many decent political qualities. I suspect he is a decent man. These things matter and give him a base to build on.

    I am making no bets at all on 2024 at the moment.
    A good, objective analysis.

    Part of the problem is that Labour has let the enemy seize the narrative. Many of the policies you refer to, including renationalising the railway, are still LP policy. Most of the 2017 and 2019 manifestos were focused on bread and butter issues - green new deal, skills, investment, housing etc. But the leadership has failed to dent the (false) narrative that all Labour is interested in is wokeness, BLM, Palestine etc. It will take time, and great political skill, for Starmer and others to win the battle of ideas and persuade voters that its policies deal with their priorities, not the priorities of a small rump on the left of the party (many of whom have already left). It's challenging, but doable, especially as I expect the government to make more mistakes as time goes on and Covid fades (hopefully).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    DavidL said:

    Curtice analysis:

    "The results so far from the BBC's key wards shows that Leave and working class areas are moving more strongly to the Conservatives than are Remain and more middle class places.

    In the most Leave voting areas where the last local elections were in 2016, the swing from Labour to Conservative is averaging 12 points. In contrast, in the most Remain voting areas there is currently hardly any swing to Conservatives at all.

    In those wards where the last electoral contest was in 2017, there is a four point swing to the Conservatives in the most pro-Leave areas, but a 5 point swing to Labour in the most pro-Remain wards.

    This latter pattern means that we can anticipate some Labour gains in places where the last election was in 2017.

    In the most working class wards the swing since 2016 is averaging 12 points, whereas it is only 3 points in more middle class areas.

    In wards last contested in 2017, the swing to the Conservatives is 4 points in the most working class areas, while there is a 4 point swing to Labour in the most middle class ones.

    These figures illustrate the lack of progress that Labour has made in reconnecting with working class voters since the general election."

    So it just might get less bad as the results become more southern.

    Put aside the Leave areas for a moment. Seeing no swing for or against the Conservatives in the areas which are performing worst for the Conservatives is an astoundingly good result for a party which is in government. After being in government for 11 years, even the areas which hate it most aren't moving against it.

    Saying this is just down to the vaccine is all well and good, but it's saying that this is all down to the government getting the biggest call of all right - when it's loudest opponents were urging it to do the reverse. So 'just' is doing a lot of work in that analysis.

    I say this as one who has swung against the Conservatives over the past year.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318

    Boris would do well not to learn from recent events.

    His procedures need to be tightened up and the Carrie Antoinette stuff riles people.

    He needs to make the most of his luck.

    Yes, he's kind of got a lucky escape with this. No ones going to be talking about wallpaper any time soon.

    Of course, he needs to learn from it, and get a tight ship in No10 and buck up the level of professionalism.
    Conceivably the sleaze stuff helped Boris in this instance. Perhaps the cry was, 'He's our Boris and we're not going to let carping about wallpaper distract us from our duty: to show our admiration, gratitude and respect.'
    I just don't think 'man privately funds house redecoration rather than using public funds*' was the vote winner Labour expected

    *Yes, he used £30,000 or £60,000 of public funds, but that really won't have come across to the average voter.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,012

    Floater said:

    Burgon

    Incredibly disappointing defeat in Hartlepool.

    We are going backwards in areas we need to be winning.

    Labour's leadership needs to urgently change direction.

    It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1390550418208563202

    Remind me what happened in 2019?

    Thing is - and bear in mind I don't support Labour or their policies - it may be that Burgon has a point!

    And now you have all stopped laughing at that thought, consider that there are a number of policies from the last manifesto which have clear public support. Renationalisation of the railways being one of them. Now it is something I would vehemently object to but I am not the target audience and I think it is something that would be very popular amongst those former Labour voters in the red wall seats.

    What Labour have to do is differentiate between the widespread fear and revulsion of Corbyn and the support for some (but by no means all) of the policies that Labour were advocating in 2019. Starmer can be PM. He has 3 years to get it right and he has the basics. People don't fear him and he has many decent political qualities. I suspect he is a decent man. These things matter and give him a base to build on.

    I am making no bets at all on 2024 at the moment.
    If "renationalisation" was possible for something always owned by the state, the Tories have done it. Labour had a lot of policies that the Tories were happy to attack when Labour proposed them but happy to champion them when they are doing them.

    The Tories are Labour of old if you are northern ex Labour voters and Labour are the sneering condescending metropolitan elite Tories of old.
    And yet I don't see much of the sneering. To be honest I don't currently see much of anything from Labour. They need policies.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 7,934

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    This is another key test for Starmer. Will he now purge Momentum. If you can be a member of Momentum and a member of Labour then the party has zero chance of recapturing seats like Hartlepool.

    He should have done that already. It will be even harder now.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1390585426931499013

    When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction

    Classic Dom :lol:

    He makes some good points there - including about Boris who he calls out as the tallest dwarf.

  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    Disaster for Labour.

    I quite like Starmer, but something has to change.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103

    While Labour councillors have been banging on about Free Palestine on the campaign trail...the government talking about the bins.

    A new battle plan will mean that every home in England will stick to the same system to recycle plastic, paper and other materials.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14875570/council-end-barmy-recycling-postcode-lottery

    I hear so much genuine anger that different areas do this differently. This is an anger I simply can't understand. It's the work of minutes to understand your own area's recycling system. Still, the government appears to be responding to a genuine demand here.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    eek said:

    Late to the fray, but I'd like to claim some bragging rights for my Hartlepool prediction yesterday, as I wasn't far off:

    I expect Tories to sail home in Hartlepool with a majority of around 6,000. It will be a Labour massacre, but still unsurprising. Labour will lose some 2019 votes through indifference, some 2019 Labour will go Tory, and virtually all of the 2019 Brexit voters that bother to turn out will go Tory. Bad news for Labour, but not signifying a great deal in the medium to long term.

    Were it not for the fact both Rochdale and myself called it without seconds of the byelection being announced I would give you that.
    Thanks for the faint praise! I was also convinced from the moment it was announced that the Tories would win easily. But as I live currently in the deep south, I said nothing, preferring to leave it to the local NE experts like you.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that when the vaccine programme moves below 40, we may be ditching AZN?

    Yes, it's very likely. I expect the announcement will come with the approval of Novavax as that will plug the supply gap of not using AZ.
    Do you think those of us under 40 who've just been given an AZ first dose will still get an AZ second in about 10-12 weeks time after the first?

    Or get a second of something else? Which could potentially be sooner?
    I'm not sure, but I have had a friend who got a second Pfizer after a first AZ about 8 weeks later.
    Good to know. I don't particularly care which second one I get, any two of any are good enough (heck any one of any is pretty good) but sooner the better surely.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,153
    Pulpstar said:

    My Dad said the Tile Hill North

    https://bit.ly/3vSHKMv

    box was good for the Tories in Coventry. Street more nailed on than a nailed on thing.

    I lived in Tile Hill for a time, as a student. Mobile phones were just coming in and predictive text had a habit of changing it to "Vile Hill" and the name kind of stuck amongst us. Wasn't a big student area, more typical red wall, I guess. I wouldn't be at all surprised at Tories doing well there, now. Would have been deep red when I was there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Northstar said:

    Yes, indeed :smile:

    In honour of the glorious win in our new heartland of Hartlepool, I’ve had a go at immortalizing the political moment epigrammatically in the traditional manner of the old: with an elegiac couplet or two. Ahem:

    INSTAR MERITUM:

    principis aurata muros candescere charta
    ______ingemis, et quanti quis dederitque rogas.
    heu, tibi quid paries, partes cum sede repulsae?
    ______aurea dum spectas, moenia rubra cadunt.


    A WELL-EARNED IMAGE:

    ‘The PM’s walls in Number 10 gleam bright with gilded leaf!’
    _____you wail, and quiz ‘How much, and who’s been doling?’
    Alas, what good’s a party-wall when your party’s lost its seat?
    _____While it’s at walls of gold you gape, the Red Wall keeps on falling.

    As a onetime classics scholar I must say this is rather good.

    Perhaps we can have a mournful farewell to Starmer done in the style of Catullus?
    Outstandingly good.
This discussion has been closed.