NIP finished in third? There's Jezziah's New Model Labour Party for you. The self-proclaimed only socialist in the village candidate picks up the protest vote from all the true Labour activists who wanted the Tories to win.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
Sad to see Jezziah delighted and celebrating a poor Labour performance. Clearly part of the problem.
The party is badly split. Its not good to have an ineffective opposition when the soul of Labour is going to be fought over again....
Yup, part of Starmers apparent weakness is that he has been papering over cracks a mile wide. If Labour doesn’t act FPTP will consign it to the dustbin. I fear it is already too late.
This is the way I see it.
Many on the right of Labour didn't want Corbyn, they wanted a right wing leader. So they attacked him, one of those attacks was being unelectable, in fact it was the main one prior to 2017. They got proven wrong (if he got to that position in 2017 it clearly wasn't impossible)
So they worked overtime to make sure they were right and he would lose so they could get the right wing leader they wanted. Now we have a right wing leader the left are not expected to reciprocate.
And then presumably even if the left didn't reciprocate if they did happen to get another left wing leader, the right would just do exactly the same thing over again until we ended up with a right wing leader again because why the hell wouldn't they?
They got everything they wanted prior to the kickback from left wingers so what reason to change their behaviour would there be?
None.
So basically left wing Labour members were told you can never get what you want and must always do what we want, also we must behave like the right behaved during Corbyn's entire leadership which I am sure sounds like a perfect reasonable compromise from a Labour right wing point of view.
Unsurprisingly it isn't one anyone would accept.
Just a reminder for those like you. Corbyn only did relatively well in 2017 because no-one seriously thought he would be supported. The 'threat' was Theresa May wanting a 'super-majority' to do whatever she wanted on Brexit. He still got a very low number of seats, and went backwards in 2019. He should have lost many more seats like Hartlepool but Ref UK felt able to stand to pressure the Government.
Starmer is an improvement for many including me, and as I say above I voted labour yesterday for the first time in many years. That is mainly because he is not an anti-Semitic 70s throwback.
The fact he is not very good, but more people like him than Corbyn should worry you not be an inspiration.
I would say the reality is somewhat more complex. Corbyn's 2017 near-miss was genuinely a surprise to a lot of people on the right of the party, and it did have something to do with the unambiguous nationalising promises on rail, for instance. Conversely, the disastrous loss in 2019 was a surprise to many on the left, because they understimated the put-off of some aspects of Corbyn's past for the red wall, as well as the expansion of promises.
These two narratives, and understandings, are at the moment completely unbridgeable. Starmer has failed to find any coherence for the party so far, and must step up within the next year or so, or probably go.
Nailed on Tory gain. Called it. Majority north of 5,000. Called it. The end of Paul Williams short political career as he disappears in a puff of hubris? Called it.
Perhaps the PM now that he has finished dragging his fiance around for the cameras can get in with telling Pools residents how much money their reward is. He needs to send them their bribe money and he needs to send it sharpish or they'll get their monkey gallows out again.
The problem for Labour is that on yesterday’s Bank forecasts or better, there will indeed be bribe money to slosh around the red wall in the spending review (and initially visible in the Quern’s Speech).
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
NIP finished in third? There's Jezziah's New Model Labour Party for you. The self-proclaimed only socialist in the village candidate picks up the protest vote from all the true Labour activists who wanted the Tories to win.
No, their candidate got 250 votes, way way down the list.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
Come on @Casino_Royale - you are starting to sound like me with that analysis of Biden's result
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
I cannot imagine what other examples of such importation you might mean
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
Biden and the Democrats did win the Senate, just.
However I agree the Democrats only won the House by 9 seats which the GOP will likely regain in 2022 and Trump won rural areas and small towns by a landslide by 62% to 34% for Biden to match the Democrats landslide in the cities where Biden won 59% to 35% for Trump, it was just Biden scraping a win in the suburbs by 50% to 45% for Trump that saw him home.
There is a similar pattern here, rural areas and small market towns are now overwhelmingly Tory, the cities are overwhelmingly Labour but suburbs and commuter belt towns are swing territory where the battle is Tory v Labour/LD. It is similar across the western world, the more rural the more conservative it is, the more urban the more liberal/left
Labour's problem is that there isn't a good reason to vote for them. "Not the Tories" works for Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc etc too. There needs to be a positive reason to vote Labour, and there simply isn't.
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
So the national polls are either dead wrong - although Survation called the by election almost spot on and is also seeing a smaller Tory lead - or Labour are piling up votes somewhere else. But where?
Good morning all - a new dawn has broken, has it not?
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be Tory was very heaven...
So BXP went entirely to the Tories and Labour’s vote still went down. People didn’t turn out?
These kinds of seats are lost for good, it’s time for Labour to look elsewhere
Except the other places are either already in Labour hands or might well have larger Tory majorities, eg swathes of the South. They might nevertheless be easier prospects on current trends, but giving up on these areas, when theres plenty more vulnerable seats to fall there, may not help.
The Labour voters didn't go out and vote because they had nothing to vote for:-
Tees valley mayor - easy Tory win Cleveland PCC - easy Tory win Hartlepool Borough - very split vote, remember the Labour Party has split in3 there Byelection - not worth getting out of bed for
And the two fo us who know the constituency called it from the very beginning
Nailed on Tory gain. Called it. Majority north of 5,000. Called it. The end of Paul Williams short political career as he disappears in a puff of hubris? Called it.
Perhaps the PM now that he has finished dragging his fiance around for the cameras can get in with telling Pools residents how much money their reward is. He needs to send them their bribe money and he needs to send it sharpish or they'll get their monkey gallows out again.
Wasnt he nailed on to be a PCC? Lost earnings right there.
Not sure about nailed on but he was competitive.
Meanwhile turnout across Teesside is shite when there's been no council elections. Like 30% and less. Despite this some boxes are 95% Houchen so he'll win well north of 70% of the vote.
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
or even the woke metro elite . Starmer taking the knee will not win red wall seats back. he needs to go as no political nouse beyond his woke entourage
So BXP went entirely to the Tories and Labour’s vote still went down. People didn’t turn out?
These kinds of seats are lost for good, it’s time for Labour to look elsewhere
The risk this strategy poses is that these seats simply pull other seats to the Tories with similar demographics. Labour, even after last night, are still strong in parts of these regions.
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
A pretty succinct way of nailing the problem they have. Brexit is deeper than just Brexit. It's about a restoration of British pride and an anti-woke agenda. Tony Blair managed to come across as very patriotic with his Cool Britannia triumph and Boris has done something similar. There's a palpable sense that after an appalling 2020 we got our shit together.
I really don't see how Labour get this together but as I've mentioned before whereas a northerner leader who has a bit of British bulldog grit about them won't put off the remainer labour luvvies down south, the reverse is not true.
Nailed on Tory gain. Called it. Majority north of 5,000. Called it. The end of Paul Williams short political career as he disappears in a puff of hubris? Called it.
Perhaps the PM now that he has finished dragging his fiance around for the cameras can get in with telling Pools residents how much money their reward is. He needs to send them their bribe money and he needs to send it sharpish or they'll get their monkey gallows out again.
Wasnt he nailed on to be a PCC? Lost earnings right there.
Not sure about nailed on but he was competitive.
Meanwhile turnout across Teesside is shite when there's been no council elections. Like 30% and less. Despite this some boxes are 95% Houchen so he'll win well north of 70% of the vote.
Given 30% is not an uncommon turnout for local elections that much for a mayor seems good.
There has to be a lot of soul searching in the days ahead. What is Labour's winning coalition against the Tory party in its current form, and how do they get there? Because going backwards relative to a huge Tory majority 18 months ago is not sustainable for the party.
Labour's problem is that there isn't a good reason to vote for them. "Not the Tories" works for Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc etc too. There needs to be a positive reason to vote Labour, and there simply isn't.
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
Continuing maybe - at the very least given the last few years we know its not a beginning!
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
A pretty succinct way of nailing the problem they have. Brexit is deeper than just Brexit. It's about a restoration of British pride and an anti-woke agenda. Tony Blair managed to come across as very patriotic with his Cool Britannia triumph and Boris has done something similar. There's a palpable sense that after an appalling 2020 we got our shit together.
I really don't see how Labour get this together but as I've mentioned before whereas a northerner leader who has a bit of British bulldog grit about them won't put off the remainer labour luvvies down south, the reverse is not true.
Jess Phillips would have been Labour's best bet, centrist and focused on practical politics to help hardworking families but charismatic and down to earth with a Brummie not a posh London accent, yet still anti hard Brexit to appeal to Remainers in London and the South.
However she had to pull out early in the 2019 leadership as Labour members were not ready for her
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
Biden and the Democrats did win the Senate, just.
However I agree the Democrats only won the House by 9 seats which the GOP will likely regain in 2022 and Trump won rural areas and small towns by a landslide by 62% to 34% for Biden to match the Democrats landslide in the cities where Biden won 59% to 35% for Trump, it was just Biden scraping a win in the suburbs by 50% to 45% for Trump that saw him home.
There is a similar pattern here, rural areas and small market towns are now overwhelmingly Tory, the cities are overwhelmingly Labour but suburbs and commuter belt towns are swing territory where the battle is Tory v Labour/LD. It is similar across the western world, the more rural the more conservative it is, the more urban the more liberal/left
If the Democrats continue to be seen as the party of Woksterism, they are going to get crushed in the suburbs. Look at the shellacking they got in one of the Dallas suburb school districts the week before last when it came down to a race against Critical Race Theory
So the national polls are either dead wrong - although Survation called the by election almost spot on and is also seeing a smaller Tory lead - or Labour are piling up votes somewhere else. But where?
16% swing to the Tories after 11 years in office. This is really beyond Labour's worst nightmare. The local election results look bad too. Their best hope is that with results spread over several days it will not be apparent just how bad they are and they won't have the same impact as they would have done had the counting been last night.
HYUFD “ rural areas and small market towns are now overwhelmingly Tory”
That’s not universally true. Cotswold District Council is LIb Dem.
Plenty of Londoners own homes in the Cotswolds and it is effectively the outer London commuter belt (at least at weekends) so it still matches by point 'suburbs and commuter belt towns are swing territory where the battle is Tory v Labour/LD'
The challenge will be separating the wider political trends being analysed here from the short term boost of being midway through a successful vaccination programme.
Who was the independent who got nearly 3,000 votes?
I was strikingly right on one point, when even experienced politicians like our Mr Palmer were willing to treat the Eve-of-poll PVs total as almost final. Nowadays a LOT of PVs are handed in on the day. Which appears to be a key reason why the verification took so long.
Sad to see Jezziah delighted and celebrating a poor Labour performance. Clearly part of the problem.
The party is badly split. Its not good to have an ineffective opposition when the soul of Labour is going to be fought over again....
Yup, part of Starmers apparent weakness is that he has been papering over cracks a mile wide. If Labour doesn’t act FPTP will consign it to the dustbin. I fear it is already too late.
This is the way I see it.
Many on the right of Labour didn't want Corbyn, they wanted a right wing leader. So they attacked him, one of those attacks was being unelectable, in fact it was the main one prior to 2017. They got proven wrong (if he got to that position in 2017 it clearly wasn't impossible)
So they worked overtime to make sure they were right and he would lose so they could get the right wing leader they wanted. Now we have a right wing leader the left are not expected to reciprocate.
And then presumably even if the left didn't reciprocate if they did happen to get another left wing leader, the right would just do exactly the same thing over again until we ended up with a right wing leader again because why the hell wouldn't they?
They got everything they wanted prior to the kickback from left wingers so what reason to change their behaviour would there be?
None.
So basically left wing Labour members were told you can never get what you want and must always do what we want, also we must behave like the right behaved during Corbyn's entire leadership which I am sure sounds like a perfect reasonable compromise from a Labour right wing point of view.
Unsurprisingly it isn't one anyone would accept.
Just a reminder for those like you. Corbyn only did relatively well in 2017 because no-one seriously thought he would be supported. The 'threat' was Theresa May wanting a 'super-majority' to do whatever she wanted on Brexit. He still got a very low number of seats, and went backwards in 2019. He should have lost many more seats like Hartlepool but Ref UK felt able to stand to pressure the Government.
Starmer is an improvement for many including me, and as I say above I voted labour yesterday for the first time in many years. That is mainly because he is not an anti-Semitic 70s throwback.
The fact he is not very good, but more people like him than Corbyn should worry you not be an inspiration.
I would say the reality is somewhat more complex. Corbyn's 2017 near-miss was genuinely a surprise to a lot of people on the right of the party, and it did have something to do with the unambiguous nationalising promises on rail, for instance. Conversely, the disastrous loss in 2019 was a surprise to many on the left, because they understimated the put-off of some aspects of Corbyn's past for the red wall, as well as the expansion of promises.
These two narratives, and understandings, are at the moment completely unbridgeable. Starmer has failed to find any coherence for the party so far, and must step up within the next year or so, or probably go.
TBH there were a decent number on the left who saw a bad result coming, I think there was some hoping that there could be a big late swing again like last time.
Personally I would bitten somebodies arm off for exactly 2017, if anything I was worried it might be even worse. Plenty didn't see it coming but I feel like 2019 was a lot less surprising to the left than 2017 to the right. I can't really say if my feelings was widely held as I somewhat withdrew from politics chat and begun to accept the coming fate. I feel like I saw a lot more optimism in 2017 than 2019, by 2019 it felt like the alliance of Labour right, Conservatives, Right wing media, Centrist media and Lib Dems had thoroughly beaten us down.
One thing to consider is when all your opponents talk you down as a political tactic you have to talk yourself up correspondingly to counter it to an extent. Personally If I was ever having a political discussion because of the intense negativity I felt like I had to be more optimistic to balance it out rather than just able to assess things as fairly as I possibly can. Which is to say I feel like in some cases people may have talked optimistically whilst expecting a tough time.
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
A pretty succinct way of nailing the problem they have. Brexit is deeper than just Brexit. It's about a restoration of British pride and an anti-woke agenda. Tony Blair managed to come across as very patriotic with his Cool Britannia triumph and Boris has done something similar. There's a palpable sense that after an appalling 2020 we got our shit together.
I really don't see how Labour get this together but as I've mentioned before whereas a northerner leader who has a bit of British bulldog grit about them won't put off the remainer labour luvvies down south, the reverse is not true.
Jess Phillips would have been Labour's best bet, centrist and focused on practical politics to help hardworking families but charismatic and down to earth with a Brummie not a posh London accent, yet still anti hard Brexit to appeal to Remainers in London and the South.
However she had to pull out early in the 2019 leadership as Labour members were not ready for her
No, she’s just far too divisive. Would repel as many as she attracted.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
Come on @Casino_Royale - you are starting to sound like me with that analysis of Biden's result
What I think Biden has got right, IMHO, is splurging minimum wage increase and money at low income blue collar workers. Trump never really did that.
But, we need to see how that plus the identity politics plays out.
Labour's problem is that there isn't a good reason to vote for them. "Not the Tories" works for Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc etc too. There needs to be a positive reason to vote Labour, and there simply isn't.
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
Labour has spent decades, with the help of unions, successfully convincing working class conservatives that this isn't about ideology it is a class war. That spell is broken now.
The battle in this country should chiefly be conservative v liberal. Collectivism is a fringe pursuit and it is a now being exposed as such.
Labour's problem is that there isn't a good reason to vote for them. "Not the Tories" works for Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc etc too. There needs to be a positive reason to vote Labour, and there simply isn't.
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
Hopefully so. The death of Labour has been long awaited.
The challenge will be separating the wider political trends being analysed here from the short term boost of being midway through a successful vaccination programme.
Who was the independent who got nearly 3,000 votes?
I was strikingly right on one point, when even experienced politicians like our Mr Palmer were willing to treat the Eve-of-poll PVs total as almost final. Nowadays a LOT of PVs are handed in on the day. Which appears to be a key reason why the verification took so long.
So the national polls are either dead wrong - although Survation called the by election almost spot on and is also seeing a smaller Tory lead - or Labour are piling up votes somewhere else. But where?
The polls were wrong - they were measuring disapproval over wallpapergate.
A few of us called that here over the weekend whilst the usual suspects were hyperventilating.
I see the defense of Starmer that he has not yet had the chance to conduct a live meeting or shake a voter's hand is being trotted out.
Yeah that'll fix it.
He did take a knee though - shaking hands is better than kneeling before some (american centred) woke agenda
Starmer will never recover from kneegate or being Brexit blocker in chief. These misjudgments are masking his many qualities. I feel sorry for him because I could imagine him as PM.
Can someday explain why Jess Phillips would do better if Brexit is the issue. She opposed it and then refused during the leadership contest to say if she’d ever support rejoin. At least Nandy and Starmer answered that.
Until there is somebody better than Starmer. He should stay. He’s got a year for me then I will call for him to resign if no progress.
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
It will chose the latter.
It's far too difficult for it to do anything else.
NIP finished in third? There's Jezziah's New Model Labour Party for you. The self-proclaimed only socialist in the village candidate picks up the protest vote from all the true Labour activists who wanted the Tories to win.
No, their candidate got 250 votes, way way down the list.
I get confused with far left splinter campaigns. There were two of them with ex Labour MPs - which one was 3rd? Ah, neither of them. Gooooood.
If anyone asks, this is the worst Lib Dem by-election result since Rochester and Strood in 2014.
Mind you the LDs have gained Chelmsford Central from the Tories this morning in the county council elections, their results will generally be much better south of Watford.
Indeed outside Scotland the LDs do not currently have a single MP from Wales, the North and Midlands now apart from Farron's in rural Cumbria in Westmoreland and Lonsdale and even there Farron won by just 3% in 2019
Labour's problem is that there isn't a good reason to vote for them. "Not the Tories" works for Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc etc too. There needs to be a positive reason to vote Labour, and there simply isn't.
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
Hopefully so. The death of Labour has been long awaited.
Be nice if it was replaced by something though, not just faded away!
Its not the end, but i think it's right that at present the Tories have a decent grip on a large chunk if electorate and the rest are too fragmented to eclipse that. Unity isnt possible, so what loosens the Tory grip?
NIP finished in third? There's Jezziah's New Model Labour Party for you. The self-proclaimed only socialist in the village candidate picks up the protest vote from all the true Labour activists who wanted the Tories to win.
No, their candidate got 250 votes, way way down the list.
I get confused with far left splinter campaigns. There were two of them with ex Labour MPs - which one was 3rd? Ah, neither of them. Gooooood.
Third place was a businesswoman campaigning for freeport status. Doesn't sound all that left wing.
Sir John Curtice “Labour’s tactic of remaining schtum on BREXIT hasn’t worked and it needs to decide if it’s still a party of the working class or is the party of Remain middle class”.
A pretty succinct way of nailing the problem they have. Brexit is deeper than just Brexit. It's about a restoration of British pride and an anti-woke agenda. Tony Blair managed to come across as very patriotic with his Cool Britannia triumph and Boris has done something similar. There's a palpable sense that after an appalling 2020 we got our shit together.
I really don't see how Labour get this together but as I've mentioned before whereas a northerner leader who has a bit of British bulldog grit about them won't put off the remainer labour luvvies down south, the reverse is not true.
Jess Phillips would have been Labour's best bet, centrist and focused on practical politics to help hardworking families but charismatic and down to earth with a Brummie not a posh London accent, yet still anti hard Brexit to appeal to Remainers in London and the South.
However she had to pull out early in the 2019 leadership as Labour members were not ready for her
I totally agree about the need to sound northern, not posh London.
On Sky News we just had Jill Mortimer who may have been criticised on here as weak but she sounded gently northern and down to earth. Then we heard from Amanda Milling from, Staffordshire. She's posh but she's managed not to sound it: another down to earth northerner.
I do think Labour need a northerner leader. Could be a Scot. They need someone who sounds northern. And for the next ten years it probably does need to be someone who was Euro sceptic.
I know it's not just about how you sound but Labour aren't going to win back Red Wall voters with posh southerner remainer luvvies who appear to care more about taking the knee than they do about singing the national anthem.
But they will have a very tough fight. For all his faults Boris has captured their hearts and minds. That zip wire photo with him holding the union jacks isn't looking quite so stupid now.
Can someday explain why Jess Phillips would do better if Brexit is the issue. She opposed it and then refused during the leadership contest to say if she’d ever support rejoin. At least Nandy and Starmer answered that.
Until there is somebody better than Starmer. He should stay. He’s got a year for me then I will call for him to resign if no progress.
I agree with you in your defence of Starmer. He was best option at the time. Alternatives? Goodness knows. I posted about this two or three days ago. Burnham/Jarvis?
At the start of (your) evening, Nick P posted something to the effect, that Hartlepool result would come in approx 7am BST = 11pm PDT. Which was smack-dab on-target.
So now at I (and Robert & Charles) have opportunity to turn in at a reasonable hour!
Whether we take it, that's another matter. Think I have a bit of adrenaline to burn off.
In the meantime, here is one last musical number, a VERY cool version of a classic, a true folk song made immortal by the lyrics of Cuba's great hero, rebel, martyr and poet, José Martí.
Where this version really gets me, is when the young woman begins to sing. Also where the little girl is dancing while the old man strums a sit-down music box. Incredible musicians, incredible people from across the Cuban diaspora. Viva Cuba!
He's right though - Hartlepool is a very tough sell compared to even Redcar - it really doesn't have anything that answers my "why would you live there?" question.
Can someday explain why Jess Phillips would do better if Brexit is the issue. She opposed it and then refused during the leadership contest to say if she’d ever support rejoin. At least Nandy and Starmer answered that.
Until there is somebody better than Starmer. He should stay. He’s got a year for me then I will call for him to resign if no progress.
I dont actually think past stance is key. The right person in the right place at the right time can get away with doing a 180 after all. Problem is that requires opponent weakness and a lot of talent
‘It should start by championing the popular policies in our recent manifestos - backed by a large majority of voters’. It’s just weird this delusion that they won in 2017 and 2019.
In the short to medium term Labour is going to have to look to other seats to make any kind of tangible progress at all. For now seats like Hartlepool are out of reach.
Tories haven't lost a single seat yet, according to Sky.
Actually the Tories have lost Chelmsford Central to the LDs and Saffron Walden and Thaxted to the RA, that must be on a net basis ie including Tory gains in Nuneaton, Harlow and Sunderland
In a hard fought and perceived-to-be-close by-election when all the minor parties were squeezed into the hundreds, that's a hugely impressive achievement.
And one that opinion polling apparently picked up - although didn't they have another Indy on a similar score, who didn't show at all?
I see the defense of Starmer that he has not yet had the chance to conduct a live meeting or shake a voter's hand is being trotted out.
Yeah that'll fix it.
He did take a knee though - shaking hands is better than kneeling before some (american centred) woke agenda
Starmer will never recover from kneegate or being Brexit blocker in chief. These misjudgments are masking his many qualities. I feel sorry for him because I could imagine him as PM.
I’m gonna play my Pope of Nope card to that. Those two examples are an indication of precisely why Starmer would be a terrible PM. Weak, indecisive, captured by the wokerati and awful misjudgement on the biggest political issue of the last many decades. Time to turn the page and move him on, or Labour will have fewer MPs at the next election than it even does today.
Tories haven't lost a single seat yet, according to Sky.
Actually they have lost Chelmsford Central to the LDs and Saffron Walden and Thaxted to the RA, that must be on a net basis ie including Tory gains in Nuneaton, Harlow and Sunderland
No, they were showing gains and losses for all the parties, not the net number. Maybe it's a definition thing, based on current control rather than at the previous election, or vice versa?
Arsenal out of the Europa League means 4th place is a Champions League spot, of interest to LCFC, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham fans.
Yes and erm, Tottenham too. They're only 1 point behind West Ham and Chelsea-Leicester have to play each other and then the final game is Spurs v Leicester.
Outside chance but a chance nonetheless, especially if they play like they did Sunday.
16% swing to the Tories after 11 years in office. This is really beyond Labour's worst nightmare. The local election results look bad too. Their best hope is that with results spread over several days it will not be apparent just how bad they are and they won't have the same impact as they would have done had the counting been last night.
There is a simple explanation for it once you recognise that the 2016 - political era is very different to the 1979 - 2016 political era. The political map has been redrawn with two new movements called Leave and Remain. The Conservatives have become Labour of old - there are not that many differences between Tory policies and Labour of a few generations ago.
The map is changing colour - as it did in America - as the shift in political allegiances means the party names stay but what they stand for flips over. The Tories are winning all these former Labour areas because the current version of the Tories are the party of the working class and the current Labour Party are the metropolitan elite sneering down their nose at ordinary people.
Jezziah / BJO are right that the current leader isn't cutting it, but they're utterly wrong with their insight and diagnosis. Sir Keir Starmer is Peter Lilley of 1993. Replacing him with Dicky Di Do Burgon or another hard left lunatic will only make it worse. None of the left have a clue what working people want because the entire Labour overton window currently sits where the Tories of Major and Hague used to sit. "The left" of a party of southern elites is not the "left" that working people across England are voting for in the modern Tories.
Immediately Starmer must remove the left from the Shadow Cabinet and come back to the centre. That means dumping the useless Dodds
I agree about Dodds just in terms of performance, but I don't agree that being seen to act against the Left further will necessarily help. Starmer still hasn't recovered the percentage he lost to the Greens and others after the expulsion of Corbyn, for instance. The problem is more about coherence and direction, and finding consensus across the board and appeal outside the party, I think.
Starmer: nice guy, good looking, fairly normal, would obviously be a very competent prime minister from an administrative point of view, in office.
Has precisely zero political skills whatsoever.
His main problem is he spent a year in 2019 trying to prevent Brexit and looked all smug on TV when he had come up with his latest wheeze to prevent a democratic vote. Those who voted for Brexit are not going to vote for him.
You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh. Caroline Flint ex MP saying wallpapergate was of no interest to voters in Hartlepool."Time after time, I heard this on the doorstep." Yet on PB the left on here were relishing it....
So the national polls are either dead wrong - although Survation called the by election almost spot on and is also seeing a smaller Tory lead - or Labour are piling up votes somewhere else. But where?
The polls were wrong - they were measuring disapproval over wallpapergate.
A few of us called that here over the weekend whilst the usual suspects were hyperventilating.
Indeed. I was very glad that you weren't fooled for a second. The parallels with 'Phonegate' days before GE2019 are even more striking now, and form a pattern that we'll probably see again in the future: the media goes all in on a non-story of Boris looking like a wally about something inconsequential; the Tories drop in the polls and the usual suspects wet themselves with joy. Then the public vote and Boris crushes the opposition.
16% swing to the Tories after 11 years in office. This is really beyond Labour's worst nightmare. The local election results look bad too. Their best hope is that with results spread over several days it will not be apparent just how bad they are and they won't have the same impact as they would have done had the counting been last night.
There is a simple explanation for it once you recognise that the 2016 - political era is very different to the 1979 - 2016 political era. The political map has been redrawn with two new movements called Leave and Remain. The Conservatives have become Labour of old - there are not that many differences between Tory policies and Labour of a few generations ago.
The map is changing colour - as it did in America - as the shift in political allegiances means the party names stay but what they stand for flips over. The Tories are winning all these former Labour areas because the current version of the Tories are the party of the working class and the current Labour Party are the metropolitan elite sneering down their nose at ordinary people.
Jezziah / BJO are right that the current leader isn't cutting it, but they're utterly wrong with their insight and diagnosis. Sir Keir Starmer is Peter Lilley of 1993. Replacing him with Dicky Di Do Burgon or another hard left lunatic will only make it worse. None of the left have a clue what working people want because the entire Labour overton window currently sits where the Tories of Major and Hague used to sit. "The left" of a party of southern elites is not the "left" that working people across England are voting for in the modern Tories.
CWU Hartlepool by-election poll: Conservative 49%, Labour 42%. More importantly shows massive support for transformative policies (69% support free broadband, 67% more investment in public services, 57% support renationalising Royal Mail)
The problem is the Labour right would prefer the purity of telling the voters they are wrong because these ideas are too left wing for them.
The Labour right refuses to meet the public where it actually exists.
Comments
These kinds of seats are lost for good, it’s time for Labour to look elsewhere
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
These two narratives, and understandings, are at the moment completely unbridgeable. Starmer has failed to find any coherence for the party so far, and must step up within the next year or so, or probably go.
Lab 21,969
Con 14,319
2019
Lab 15,464
Con 11,869
2021
Labour 8589
Tory 15529
Labour centrism showing its amazing electability again.
However I agree the Democrats only won the House by 9 seats which the GOP will likely regain in 2022 and Trump won rural areas and small towns by a landslide by 62% to 34% for Biden to match the Democrats landslide in the cities where Biden won 59% to 35% for Trump, it was just Biden scraping a win in the suburbs by 50% to 45% for Trump that saw him home.
There is a similar pattern here, rural areas and small market towns are now overwhelmingly Tory, the cities are overwhelmingly Labour but suburbs and commuter belt towns are swing territory where the battle is Tory v Labour/LD. It is similar across the western world, the more rural the more conservative it is, the more urban the more liberal/left
I think Labour's problems are only just beginning.
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy!
For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood
Upon our side, we who were strong in love!
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive.
But to be Tory was very heaven...
Many congratulations to @RochdalePioneers, @kinabalu, and others who called it so far in advance.
Thoughts and prayers to @IshmaelZ
I wonder if they are more than a flash in the pan.
Tees valley mayor - easy Tory win
Cleveland PCC - easy Tory win
Hartlepool Borough - very split vote, remember the Labour Party has split in3 there
Byelection - not worth getting out of bed for
And the two fo us who know the constituency called it from the very beginning
Meanwhile turnout across Teesside is shite when there's been no council elections. Like 30% and less. Despite this some boxes are 95% Houchen so he'll win well north of 70% of the vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hartlepool_by-election
That’s not universally true. Cotswold District Council is LIb Dem.
Yeah that'll fix it.
I really don't see how Labour get this together but as I've mentioned before whereas a northerner leader who has a bit of British bulldog grit about them won't put off the remainer labour luvvies down south, the reverse is not true.
There has to be a lot of soul searching in the days ahead. What is Labour's winning coalition against the Tory party in its current form, and how do they get there? Because going backwards relative to a huge Tory majority 18 months ago is not sustainable for the party.
Worth pointing out that later declared results (like London) might well look better for Labour.
However she had to pull out early in the 2019 leadership as Labour members were not ready for her
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1390552375207866368?s=20
The challenge will be separating the wider political trends being analysed here from the short term boost of being midway through a successful vaccination programme.
Who was the independent who got nearly 3,000 votes?
I was strikingly right on one point, when even experienced politicians like our Mr Palmer were willing to treat the Eve-of-poll PVs total as almost final. Nowadays a LOT of PVs are handed in on the day. Which appears to be a key reason why the verification took so long.
Personally I would bitten somebodies arm off for exactly 2017, if anything I was worried it might be even worse. Plenty didn't see it coming but I feel like 2019 was a lot less surprising to the left than 2017 to the right. I can't really say if my feelings was widely held as I somewhat withdrew from politics chat and begun to accept the coming fate. I feel like I saw a lot more optimism in 2017 than 2019, by 2019 it felt like the alliance of Labour right, Conservatives, Right wing media, Centrist media and Lib Dems had thoroughly beaten us down.
One thing to consider is when all your opponents talk you down as a political tactic you have to talk yourself up correspondingly to counter it to an extent. Personally If I was ever having a political discussion because of the intense negativity I felt like I had to be more optimistic to balance it out rather than just able to assess things as fairly as I possibly can. Which is to say I feel like in some cases people may have talked optimistically whilst expecting a tough time.
But, we need to see how that plus the identity politics plays out.
The battle in this country should chiefly be conservative v liberal. Collectivism is a fringe pursuit and it is a now being exposed as such.
So, that's something.
Interesting position, extreme localism, seeing Hartlepool being neglected even within Teesside.
https://northeastbylines.co.uk/another-hartlepool-independent-sam-lee/
A few of us called that here over the weekend whilst the usual suspects were hyperventilating.
Until there is somebody better than Starmer. He should stay. He’s got a year for me then I will call for him to resign if no progress.
It's far too difficult for it to do anything else.
Indeed outside Scotland the LDs do not currently have a single MP from Wales, the North and Midlands now apart from Farron's in rural Cumbria in Westmoreland and Lonsdale and even there Farron won by just 3% in 2019
Has precisely zero political skills whatsoever.
Its not the end, but i think it's right that at present the Tories have a decent grip on a large chunk if electorate and the rest are too fragmented to eclipse that. Unity isnt possible, so what loosens the Tory grip?
On Sky News we just had Jill Mortimer who may have been criticised on here as weak but she sounded gently northern and down to earth. Then we heard from Amanda Milling from, Staffordshire. She's posh but she's managed not to sound it: another down to earth northerner.
I do think Labour need a northerner leader. Could be a Scot. They need someone who sounds northern. And for the next ten years it probably does need to be someone who was Euro sceptic.
I know it's not just about how you sound but Labour aren't going to win back Red Wall voters with posh southerner remainer luvvies who appear to care more about taking the knee than they do about singing the national anthem.
But they will have a very tough fight. For all his faults Boris has captured their hearts and minds. That zip wire photo with him holding the union jacks isn't looking quite so stupid now.
So now at I (and Robert & Charles) have opportunity to turn in at a reasonable hour!
Whether we take it, that's another matter. Think I have a bit of adrenaline to burn off.
In the meantime, here is one last musical number, a VERY cool version of a classic, a true folk song made immortal by the lyrics of Cuba's great hero, rebel, martyr and poet, José Martí.
Where this version really gets me, is when the young woman begins to sing. Also where the little girl is dancing while the old man strums a sit-down music box. Incredible musicians, incredible people from across the Cuban diaspora. Viva Cuba!
Guantanamera
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blUSVALW_Z4
Yo soy un hombre sincero
De donde crece la palma
Y antes de morirme quiero
Echar mis versos del alma
I am a truthful man
From the land of the palm trees
And before I die
I want to share my verses
Mi verso es de un verde claro
Y de un carmín encendido
Mi verso es un ciervo herido
Que busca en el monte amparo
My verses are a clear green
And they are a flaming crimson
My verses are a dear sky
I look for on my beloved mountain
Con los pobres de la tierra
Quiero yo mi suerte echar
El arroyo de la sierra
Me complace más que el mar
With the poor people of the land
I shall cast my fate
The streams of the mountain
please me more than the sea
More than the sea
Cultivo una rosa blanca
En julio como en enero
Para el amigo sincero
Que me da su mano franca
I grow the white rose
In June as in January
For the sincere friend
Who truly gives me his hand
She made an insipid speech and paused for applause when she beamed to herself about being the first woman to win Hartlepool. Ugh. Look at me.
The Tories won in spite of and not because of her. The Labour candidate, by contrast, made a bad situation worse.
She comes across as plain and down to earth, northern.
Exactly hits the spot.
Even if there was a suitable Byelection (and there isn't) there is little chance Labour would win it
Chose Caroline Flint, Labour.
Arsenal out of the Europa League means 4th place is a Champions League spot, of interest to LCFC, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham fans.
And one that opinion polling apparently picked up - although didn't they have another Indy on a similar score, who didn't show at all?
This seems right.
Immediately Starmer must remove the left from the Shadow Cabinet and come back to the centre. That means dumping the useless Dodds
2 Seats with huge tactical votes last time and the knife edge Con majority in Central.
The election will be decided there.
Outside chance but a chance nonetheless, especially if they play like they did Sunday.
The map is changing colour - as it did in America - as the shift in political allegiances means the party names stay but what they stand for flips over. The Tories are winning all these former Labour areas because the current version of the Tories are the party of the working class and the current Labour Party are the metropolitan elite sneering down their nose at ordinary people.
Jezziah / BJO are right that the current leader isn't cutting it, but they're utterly wrong with their insight and diagnosis. Sir Keir Starmer is Peter Lilley of 1993. Replacing him with Dicky Di Do Burgon or another hard left lunatic will only make it worse. None of the left have a clue what working people want because the entire Labour overton window currently sits where the Tories of Major and Hague used to sit. "The left" of a party of southern elites is not the "left" that working people across England are voting for in the modern Tories.
Far from everyone was convinced and didn't trust either party.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390528769174261760?s=19
In Northumberland. Greens have also gained a seat from Con there. In Chelmsford a LD gain from Con.
I wasn't impressed with Trudy Harrison in Copeland either.
Rinse and repeat.
https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1379208239942922242?lang=en
CWU Hartlepool by-election poll: Conservative 49%, Labour 42%. More importantly shows massive support for transformative policies (69% support free broadband, 67% more investment in public services, 57% support renationalising Royal Mail)
The problem is the Labour right would prefer the purity of telling the voters they are wrong because these ideas are too left wing for them.
The Labour right refuses to meet the public where it actually exists.