That's where the future of the UK is going to be revealed in the next 48 hours (it's already been decided).
It isn't, as whatever the result in Scotland Boris will refuse a legal indyref2 and Union matters are reserved to Westminster where the Tories have a majority.
It needs Starmer to become PM reliant on SNP confidence and supply ironically for the Nationalists to ever get their legal indyref2 granted before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and Labour as the early results show clearly have zero chance of a majority in England next time.
So Starmer will need SNP MPs support to become PM and the SNP need Starmer to become PM to get indyref2
most of Labour’s electoral problems are a consequence of the vaccine bounce. That will get worse before it gets better as we reopen further and the economy recovers. But it’s also correct to say that Keir Starmer has bungled the handful of calls he could make: an unorthodox candidate selection, the bold decision to hold the election on the same day as the other Hartlepool contests. Part of being a successful opposition leader is getting the few things you can control right: and while Starmer has a pretty convincing alibi for the electoral problem he has today, he doesn’t have one for the political choices that may give him a different electoral problem tomorrow.
Would holding the by-election on another day have helped? It would have looked bad to have done so.
Not just that... A Hartlepool by-election was always going to be a Conservative win. The scale of the defeat might have been tempered, but it was always going to fall. Might as well get it out of the way on a day when the story will move to Scotland pretty quickly.
Honestly I want to put the Labour Party in a paper bag and shake them up.
For the last 6 years (charitably - you could go back to 13 and Brown’s reign) the elections roll round and we get the usual soul searching, recriminations, agony, moaning...
Their problem is fundamental. It is not a problem that will magically get better with some tinkerings around the leadership and a few stunts in John Lewis. Their traditional vote has deserted them and they are not going to win it back by the odd lurch to the left or centre depending on their mood at any given time.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
Labour doesn’t need a clause 4 moment anymore, it needs about 10 of them.
It has to be the second of your choices, since the LibDems can then mop up the first. If they take on the LibDems for the first constituency, not only will it be split, but they leave the Tories to mop up the second.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
Yeah, there's now no threat on the right for the Tories. Looking very crowded on the left though.
Not much sign of Labour epiphany on Today. Mandelson harking back to 1997 and 2001, and McDonnell doing the reverse.
McDonnell was right that there was no particular agenda or policy offer in this election, though, and Mandelson was right that Labour may have understimated the way in which Brexit may have permanently shifted cultural identity in some areas.
Yes it is striking. Macca saying go back to "past manifestos" and Mandy saying without Blair Lab hasn't won for decades.
Mandelson is right about the diagnosis but wrong about the solution.
Labour won't win by being 2017, 2019 or even 1997 again. It will win again when it's the party offering aspiration and hope for the future.
It also seems to be an ebb and flow. Cons were the party of the aspirational working class in 1979, Lab fulfilled that role in 1997 and now the Cons are there in 2019 (with some Brexit bells and whistles although in most people's minds Brexit = better pay and conditions = aspiration).
Lab will get there again I'm sure - not sure the path, that said.
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
That's where the future of the UK is going to be revealed in the next 48 hours (it's already been decided).
It isn't, as whatever the result in Scotland Boris will refuse a legal indyref2 and Union matters are reserved to Westminster where the Tories have a majority.
It needs Starmer to become PM reliant on SNP confidence and supply ironically for the Nationalists to ever get their legal indyref2 granted before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and Labour as the early results show clearly have zero chance of a majority in England next time.
So Starmer will need SNP MPs support to become PM and the SNP need Starmer to become PM to get indyref2
Better call back the carriers though, just in case eh
I was going to respond to @TheJezziah claiming I was a nazi but he appears to have been cancelled.
The loony left are obsessed by Palestine and only Palestine. They say nothing comparable about any of the other trouble spots in the world. Basic anti-semitism - treat the jewish state different to every other state. Then they focus in on Labour Friends of Israel. But not left wingers like Thornberry or Phillips or Stringer or Gardiner. Just the Jewish ones.
Which is how we get the likes of Berger and Ellman and Hodge and Smeeth driven either to despair or out of the party completely as the anti-semitic left scream racist abuse at them then claim to be anti-racists.
Until labour expel all these racists there are a lot of people who won't touch them with a pole.
Isn’t this a problem with that part of,the left, and some may say woke, that the default position is unless you agree fully and wholeheartedly with their position on a matter of issues you are a Nazi, racist. Sexist. Homophobe,,transphobe or whatever the latest phobe of the day is. It is nigh on impossible for,them to accept you can not agree with them without being a bigot.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
This is partly why a grand coalition may be the only long-term answer for parties to the left of the Tories in this country, and their many varying voters, if they don't want Tory rule to become permanent and instutionalised.
LibDem vote is appalling at Hartlepool. Used to get double figure % in 2000s
My understanding is that outside the federal policy of running a candidate, we literally did nothing at all in the by-election and focused attention and resources on fights worth having.
16% swing to the Tories after 11 years in office. This is really beyond Labour's worst nightmare. The local election results look bad too. Their best hope is that with results spread over several days it will not be apparent just how bad they are and they won't have the same impact as they would have done had the counting been last night.
There is a simple explanation for it once you recognise that the 2016 - political era is very different to the 1979 - 2016 political era. The political map has been redrawn with two new movements called Leave and Remain. The Conservatives have become Labour of old - there are not that many differences between Tory policies and Labour of a few generations ago.
The map is changing colour - as it did in America - as the shift in political allegiances means the party names stay but what they stand for flips over. The Tories are winning all these former Labour areas because the current version of the Tories are the party of the working class and the current Labour Party are the metropolitan elite sneering down their nose at ordinary people.
Jezziah / BJO are right that the current leader isn't cutting it, but they're utterly wrong with their insight and diagnosis. Sir Keir Starmer is Peter Lilley of 1993. Replacing him with Dicky Di Do Burgon or another hard left lunatic will only make it worse. None of the left have a clue what working people want because the entire Labour overton window currently sits where the Tories of Major and Hague used to sit. "The left" of a party of southern elites is not the "left" that working people across England are voting for in the modern Tories.
I don't disagree. Labour is now the party of middle class professionals who largely work in the public sector. They care about the thing that those people care about: sexual politics, minority issues and the BLM agenda with a good dollop of middle class privileges thrown in.
Their former traditional supporters really don't care about any of that. They are concerned about employment, job security, housing, how badly their kids are being educated and are generally patriotic in that they want to cheer on the country rather than sneer at it and despise it.
Boris is a long way from ticking every box for these people but he ticks a lot more boxes than SKS's Labour party does. Until that changes Labour will win the large cities and the University towns but get thrashed everywhere else.
You know that, I know that, but those running the party still don't seem to get it.
Starmer needs to tear up their entire economic policy and think something big. Huge. Massive. Big bold life changing policy ideas. He has to think big now. Do something that will be noticed. Look at Biden. He is tearing up the last 40 years of economics in 100 days.
Top of my head: I would suggest changing unemployment and sickness benefits to be fit for the precarious employment of 21st century. I think the Dutch have been experimenting with this. If you lose your job your income doesn't suddenly drop to a foodbank level of £70 a week. You are supported to find new work. Change the whole idea of unemployment to a process of change to a changing economy as AI/robots takes over.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
This is partly why a grand coalition may be the only long-term answer for parties to the left of the Tories in this country.
Yes but then the Tories can say "vote Labour and you let the Green moonbats in".
LibDem vote is appalling at Hartlepool. Used to get double figure % in 2000s
My understanding is that outside the federal policy of running a candidate, we literally did nothing at all in the by-election and focused attention and resources on fights worth having.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
This is partly why a grand coalition may be the only long-term answer for parties to the left of the Tories in this country, and their many voters, if together they don't want permanent and institutionalised Tory rule.
Except, lots of voters will still baulk at such a "stitch up".
One of the advantages of being old is that one can look back and realise how situations developed. I was always taught that there were two strands to the Labour Party; Marxism and Methodism, and the Methodists were the 'ordinary' people who wanted decent working conditions and so on. The trade unionists. The Marxists were the people who thought about a 'different' future, and wanted Socialism.
Every so often, back in the 60's, I wondered what would happen to the trade unions, both as battles were won and as the brighter boys and girls who would have, in my father's day. left school at 14 or 15 and before long worked their way into being workplace representatives, passed the 11+ and went on to become accountants, if they left at 16, or, if they stayed to 18 went to uni. Maybe they'd be the Methodists, but more likely the Marxists.If they stayed Labour.
20+ years ago I went on holiday to Slovenia, not too long after the end of Yugoslavia, and got talking to a chap from Sunderland, who was a union rep in one of the by then dying factories there. We talked about the change in Slovenia and he was quite censorious about the 'Lefties' who came to his factory, and whom he didn't recognise as members of the same movement as his.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
It’s hardly been noticed that the major European economies are powering forward now. It’s great to see. Serious numbers coming out of France, Germany and so on now.
Which does rather provoke the question: where are they getting their vaccines from?
Pfizer and AZ. Both have significantly upped production vs the first quarter.
So where's our share of that "significantly upped production"?
Still suspect some behind the scenes deal was quietly done.
Who will last longer SKS as leader or Pres. Sleepy Joe Biden - tough to call.
Labour never gets rid of their leaders. They messed up removing Brown and Corbyn (twice) LOL!
Ironically the only successful leadership plot was Tom Watson's against Blair in 2006... When they successfully removed their only leader to win general elections since 1974...
Hartlepool: not only did the BXP votes break for the Tories but those LP voters who were persuaded to stay through loyalty with LP in 2019 have gone Tory now. More dominoes falling.
Long-Corbyn may endure for a long time yet and may be permanent.
I know the regional list for Scotland isn’t being counted till tomorrow but won’t we have a very good idea today as to the chances of an SNP majority once the constituency votes are counted today .
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
If Tracy Brabin has won W Yorkshire mayor, Burnham can come back via Batley and Spen.
Yes Burnham would be much better for LAB, winning back traditional supporters. He might lose some of the Metropolitan brigade in London and Brighton but LAB majorities in a lot of these places are big so it shouldn't be a problem.
Honestly I want to put the Labour Party in a paper bag and shake them up.
For the last 6 years (charitably - you could go back to 13 and Brown’s reign) the elections roll round and we get the usual soul searching, recriminations, agony, moaning...
Their problem is fundamental. It is not a problem that will magically get better with some tinkerings around the leadership and a few stunts in John Lewis. Their traditional vote has deserted them and they are not going to win it back by the odd lurch to the left or centre depending on their mood at any given time.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
Labour doesn’t need a clause 4 moment anymore, it needs about 10 of them.
The brand is toxic. They need to completely refound themselves. If the hard left want to stay on as Labour let them - just as we still have rump Liberal and SDP and UKIP parties.
Hartlepool: not only did the BXP votes break for the Tories but those LP voters who were persuaded to stay through loyalty with LP in 2019 have gone Tory now. More dominoes falling.
Long-Corbyn may endure for a long time yet and may be permanent.
We need to see Labour votes from elsewhere on Teesside because I suspect the Hartlepool Labour vote just didn't turn out for they had no one to vote for nor an actual reason to go and vote.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
It is not about identity. It is about attitude and policy. Patronising working class people in a Northern accent instead of a southern one is not going to work. It is going to make things worse.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
There are still safe Labour seats in central Manchester, Liverpool, etc? Surely one of the MP's in those seats could be persuaded to to head to the Lords to parachute Burnham in to?
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
If Tracy Brabin has won W Yorkshire mayor, Burnham can come back via Batley and Spen.
Yes Burnham would be much better for LAB, winning back traditional supporters. He might lose some of the Metropolitan brigade in London and Brighton but LAB majorities in a lot of these places are big so it shouldn't be a problem.
On this Hartlepool result its not Batley and Spen for Labour.
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
It will indeed be a peculiar political landscape if the de-industrialised areas of the country become the home of separatists and Conservatives. It shows how abandoning/ignoring/insulting the people your party is named after can destroy you. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the loss of potential governance can lead to Labours new middle class heartlands drifting to the Greens and LDs.
If you want a touchstone for "Labour's new middle class heartlands", Chipping Norton will turn Labour on Sunday, entirely with the connivance of the Greens and LDs who have deliberately decided not to campaign there.
To be fair to Starmer I think he gets this in part but he’s not willing (either because ideologically as a metropolitan professional it dismays him, or he’s not willing to ignite a civil war to end all civil wars) to do what needs to be done here. You either go all in as the party of urban and young Britain, with a decent pitch to aspirational middle classes and hope you outflank the Tories in the counties in the same way as they have outflanked Labour in the red wall, or you take real steps to get back in touch with working class sensibilities (reconcile to Brexit, drop wokeism etc). It needs to make a decision or both wings are just going to desert it and the party is dead.
The problem with the idea of becoming a New Liberal Party is that they'd be fighting the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the same patch of ground. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted if Labour gave up on trying to appeal to working class and rural voters.
This is partly why a grand coalition may be the only long-term answer for parties to the left of the Tories in this country, and their many voters, if together they don't want permanent and institutionalised Tory rule.
Except, lots of voters will still baulk at such a "stitch up".
The evidence for that is patchy. In local government, at least, there is some evidence that it can work - Palmer was elected a Labour councillor in darkest Surrey, after all - and at the General Election the LD/Green/Plaid agreement does appear to have boosted the vote share, if making a difference of probably only one seat.
Blair and Ashdown played the strategy successfully in 1997 behind the scenes; the question is how much overt electoral co-operation voters would stomach.
A key pre-condition is a wider cross-party platform on political reform. Labour still has way to go before it accepts it isn't going to be able to carry the flag by itself.
Once you've agreed, and campaigned on, the unfairness of the current voting system, and pledged to change it, short-term co-operation to achieve that end becomes a lot more sellable.
LibDem vote is appalling at Hartlepool. Used to get double figure % in 2000s
My understanding is that outside the federal policy of running a candidate, we literally did nothing at all in the by-election and focused attention and resources on fights worth having.
Probably a good thing. Not sure he'd want to give up his mayoralty, but we may find out.
He'd have to give up the mayoralty, find a safe seat, and then arrive as the anointed one and get all his fellow MPs to vote for him. There's quite a bit that could go wrong in that. I layed him at 8s some days ago.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
Hadn't clocked that the 6% third placed vote in Hartlepool wasn't our Thelma, but a non-crazy with a superficially left pitch - "they are lying, and will continue austerity type policies for the next 10 years"
The semi-official Corbynite candidate was mullered worse than Labour, tbh.
But if we tentatively count third place Sam Lee as attracting left voters it would suggest an overall left to right swing of around 1%, and the result being almost entirely based on internal realignment on the left and right.
Who will last longer SKS as leader or Pres. Sleepy Joe Biden - tough to call.
Labour never gets rid of their leaders. They messed up removing Brown and Corbyn (twice) LOL!
Ironically the only successful leadership plot was Tom Watson's against Blair in 2006... When they successfully removed their only leader to win general elections since 1974...
And even then that was only hastening the departure of a leader who had already said he was on the way out (only it happened a couple of years earlier than he was likely anticipating).
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
It is not about identity. It is about attitude and policy. Patronising working class people in a Northern accent instead of a southern one is not going to work. It is going to make things worse.
It's not just the "northern accent" (though I think it would possibly help at the margins) but he's had a pretty effective run as mayor, is a reasonable political operator and is/was relatively sensible on Brexit - I mean he was remain but when you think of the people that tried to over turn the leave vote he's not at the forefront.
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
Probably a good thing. Not sure he'd want to give up his mayoralty, but we may find out.
I think he is relatively moderate. If he has ambition then he may welcome a chance to move on from the Mayor position to be LAB leader. Might be better for GE 2029 though, LAB have more if a chance then.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Much agreed, yes.
In 1997 and onwards - the battle was how to expand upon Labour's core working class Northern seat base.
The first thing SKS and others need to do is identify what and where Labour's core vote currently is and then on how to expand it without completely scaring them away.
And with Boris in control that isn't an option - as I said yesterday the current battle grounds seem to be mutually exclusives islands where any gains in one set of voters costs votes in other sectors.
Probably a good thing. Not sure he'd want to give up his mayoralty, but we may find out.
I think he is relatively moderate. If he has ambition then he may welcome a chance to move on from the Mayor position to be LAB leader. Might be better for GE 2029 though, LAB have more if a chance then.
Burnham was a poor second in the 2014 leadership election. (I still can't understand how Corbyn got 60%.)
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
It's funny how little criticism there has been of this export ban, which has surely cost lives in places like India. Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
It is not about identity. It is about attitude and policy. Patronising working class people in a Northern accent instead of a southern one is not going to work. It is going to make things worse.
It's not just the "northern accent" (though I think it would possibly help at the margins) but he's had a pretty effective run as mayor, is a reasonable political operator and is/was relatively rational on Brexit - I mean he was remain but when you think of the people that tried to over turn the leave vote he's not at the forefront.
I've posted this before but a big constituency for labour is young voters. They have had a dreadful time through coronavirus.
Turn out for the party that wanted to make things harsher? No thanks. As BJO said recently, what are they offering the young?
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
It is not about identity. It is about attitude and policy. Patronising working class people in a Northern accent instead of a southern one is not going to work. It is going to make things worse.
It's not just the "northern accent" (though I think it would possibly help at the margins) but he's had a pretty effective run as mayor, is a reasonable political operator and is/was relatively rational on Brexit - I mean he was remain but when you think of the people that tried to over turn the leave vote he's not at the forefront.
I've posted this before but a big constituency for labour is young voters. They have had a dreadful time through coronavirus.
Turn out for the party that wanted to make things harsher? No thanks. As BJO said recently, what are they offering the young?
Mental health effects of the past year on the young all over R4 this morning.
I wonder if the Scottish Conservatives will cannibalise the pro-Brexit vote in the same way as the party South of border has.
Unlikely because around a third of SNP voters voted leave and there’s no sign they’ll be jumping ship as independence is their red line not EU membership.
Hadn't clocked that the 6% third placed vote in Hartlepool wasn't our Thelma, but a non-crazy with a superficially left pitch - "they are lying, and will continue austerity type policies for the next 10 years"
The semi-official Corbynite candidate was mullered worse than Labour, tbh.
But if we tentatively count third place Sam Lee as attracting left voters it would suggest an overall left to right swing of around 1%, and the result being almost entirely based on internal realignment on the left and right.
Stockport is interesting. Lib Dems become the biggest party, Greens take a very working-class ward. Entirely anecdata but I had some contact with a Stockport Labour cabinet member recently and "thuggish" would be a kind way of describing him.
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
It's funny how little criticism there has been of this export ban, which has surely cost lives in places like India. Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
Spot on and shows how "team" based the vast majority of people interested in politics are. Not enough thinking for themselves, far too much scoring partisan points and parroting party lines.
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
It's funny how little criticism there has been of this export ban, which has surely cost lives in places like India. Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
The export ban is only temporary. Not sure a party that was advocating sending large amounts of vaccine to India before Uk citizens could have their vaccines would prosper.
I know the regional list for Scotland isn’t being counted till tomorrow but won’t we have a very good idea today as to the chances of an SNP majority once the constituency votes are counted today .
Only about half of the constituency seats count today, the rest tomorrow.
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Sounds vomit inducing
As opposed to the hypocritical mess of "hug this weeks fashionable dictator" and "kill that one" ?
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
Super Dud to be sure. They should be getting Balls back in , he could at least talk as if he was a normal working class person and not the clowns Labour have now. Millionaires and these woke numpties will never cut it. SNP have gone same way and only independence has saved their skins, a clear out of the same ne'er do wells is overdue in Scotland as well, and it is all the Labour escapees that have been involved.
I know the regional list for Scotland isn’t being counted till tomorrow but won’t we have a very good idea today as to the chances of an SNP majority once the constituency votes are counted today .
Congratulations to Tories here on the impressive Northern sweep. Impressions so far from my left perspective FWIW:
* Con got all the BXP/UKIP vote - which frankly is logical. If you vote for a single-issue party and they disappear, you look for the next party closest. Many thought they'd stop voting now. Not so. * Labour also losing part of its own working-class Northern vote, but only a modest number to the Tories - the Indy vote in Hartlepool is startling too though overshadowed by the Tory triumph. And there must have been a lot of abstentions - the turnout in Hartlepool at 40% was feeble in the end after early talk of 70%. The reports of Tory areas turning out much more look right. * No clear pattern on the centre-left - some Lab gains from LD/Green and some vice versa. But Labour doing fairly well in middle-class areas even in the North (Newcastle), so I suspect the Southern results will be better. The Midlands? Not so much. Street looks very safe to me. * I retain some hopes for a decent result for Labour in Scotland.
Too soon to draw conclusions for Starmer and Labour's direction IMO.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Much agreed, yes.
In 1997 and onwards - the battle was how to expand upon Labour's core working class Northern seat base.
The first thing SKS and others need to do is identify what and where Labour's core vote currently is and then on how to expand it without completely scaring them away.
And with Boris in control that isn't an option - as I said yesterday the current battle grounds seem to be mutually exclusives islands where any gains in one set of voters costs votes in other sectors.
The Boris point is the key one. As long as BoJo remains popular, it doesn't really matter what Labour does, because you can't out popular someone who is programmed to do whatever it takes to be popular.
Now for those with eyes to see, that popularity won't last, because its foundations are so shoddy. Populists are a bugger to get rid of, but they always fail to deliver for their countries[1]. What's maddeningly not clear is when Johnson's fall from grace will happen- I stick to my theory that it's a uniform probability of 10 years or 10 minutes.
But once Boris loses control, the strategic landscape changes; he's the only one who can appeal to sufficient numbers in both Hartlepool and Hazelmere. I don't know how it changes, I doubt that even the Conservatives do. But that's what the opposition needs to be ready for.
[1] As usual, I'd love to hear of a nation which has elected a populist government where the nation has thrived as a result. Please. Just one.
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
It's funny how little criticism there has been of this export ban, which has surely cost lives in places like India. Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
The export ban is only temporary. Not sure a party that was advocating sending large amounts of vaccine to India before Uk citizens could have their vaccines would prosper.
Assuming by UK you mean US?
As I understand it there have been 10s of millions of vaccine doses that nobody in the US can use, and can't be exported either.
The ban on ingredients etc has caused production bottlenecks - the Serum Institute of India appealed directly to Biden to lift this ban 3 weeks ago I believe.
That's where the future of the UK is going to be revealed in the next 48 hours (it's already been decided).
It isn't, as whatever the result in Scotland Boris will refuse a legal indyref2 and Union matters are reserved to Westminster where the Tories have a majority.
16% swing to the Tories after 11 years in office. This is really beyond Labour's worst nightmare. The local election results look bad too. Their best hope is that with results spread over several days it will not be apparent just how bad they are and they won't have the same impact as they would have done had the counting been last night.
There is a simple explanation for it once you recognise that the 2016 - political era is very different to the 1979 - 2016 political era. The political map has been redrawn with two new movements called Leave and Remain. The Conservatives have become Labour of old - there are not that many differences between Tory policies and Labour of a few generations ago.
The map is changing colour - as it did in America - as the shift in political allegiances means the party names stay but what they stand for flips over. The Tories are winning all these former Labour areas because the current version of the Tories are the party of the working class and the current Labour Party are the metropolitan elite sneering down their nose at ordinary people.
Jezziah / BJO are right that the current leader isn't cutting it, but they're utterly wrong with their insight and diagnosis. Sir Keir Starmer is Peter Lilley of 1993. Replacing him with Dicky Di Do Burgon or another hard left lunatic will only make it worse. None of the left have a clue what working people want because the entire Labour overton window currently sits where the Tories of Major and Hague used to sit. "The left" of a party of southern elites is not the "left" that working people across England are voting for in the modern Tories.
I don't disagree. Labour is now the party of middle class professionals who largely work in the public sector. They care about the thing that those people care about: sexual politics, minority issues and the BLM agenda with a good dollop of middle class privileges thrown in.
Their former traditional supporters really don't care about any of that. They are concerned about employment, job security, housing, how badly their kids are being educated and are generally patriotic in that they want to cheer on the country rather than sneer at it and despise it.
Boris is a long way from ticking every box for these people but he ticks a lot more boxes than SKS's Labour party does. Until that changes Labour will win the large cities and the University towns but get thrashed everywhere else.
You know that, I know that, but those running the party still don't seem to get it.
Starmer needs to tear up their entire economic policy and think something big. Huge. Massive. Big bold life changing policy ideas. He has to think big now. Do something that will be noticed. Look at Biden. He is tearing up the last 40 years of economics in 100 days.
Top of my head: I would suggest changing unemployment and sickness benefits to be fit for the precarious employment of 21st century. I think the Dutch have been experimenting with this. If you lose your job your income doesn't suddenly drop to a foodbank level of £70 a week. You are supported to find new work. Change the whole idea of unemployment to a process of change to a changing economy as AI/robots takes over.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
Super Dud to be sure. They should be getting Balls back in , he could at least talk as if he was a normal working class person and not the clowns Labour have now. Millionaires and these woke numpties will never cut it. SNP have gone same way and only independence has saved their skins, a clear out of the same ne'er do wells is overdue in Scotland as well, and it is all the Labour escapees that have been involved.
I don't think Balls and figures like him are the answer myself, any more than Burgon and others.
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Sounds vomit inducing
As opposed to the hypocritical mess of "hug this weeks fashionable dictator" and "kill that one" ?
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
and who you pick that are whiter than white (is that term still allowed btw?) to be on this virtuous panel. No doubt the criteria would soon shift to some woke cause soon enough as well. If this proposal ever came to pass no doubt a "dream" list of angels would include Greta Thurnberg Obama Bill Gates (bit controversial given he is a capitalist pig at heart but need some balance would the thinking goes) That Burmese woman who alternates between being a saint and being evil Marcus Rashford?
Labour has been obliterated in Dudley. Only won 3 wards. Not a surprise given by how much they lost the parliamentary seats in 2019. No sign of a partial come back
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
If you want to find utter horseshit analysis about Joe Biden, you have come to right place. PB is riddled with nonentities who endlessly underestimate the Potus. I mean, it was possible to find PBers tipping Virginia for Trump at the election in 2020. Biden won the state by ten points.
Meantime, Biden is, er, extremely popular with the American public - a reality that has seemingly passed the PB Biden Experts by.
Believe what you want but factually you are wrong. Five thirty eight say, as of a couple of days ago, that of any President since WW2 only Trump and Ford were more unpopular than him for the same number of days.
I know the regional list for Scotland isn’t being counted till tomorrow but won’t we have a very good idea today as to the chances of an SNP majority once the constituency votes are counted today .
Think it will be mostly if not all done but will be on into evening I would expect. Will not be early on.
Interesting timing regarding the JCVI and under 40s . Clearly the government pressured them into not making an announcement before the elections.
It was correct to give over 50s mostly AZ as stopping deaths was priority #1 but we've done that spectacularly well so attempting to get to sterlising herd immunity even at the cost of a slightly longer vaccine rollout with more mRNA is now wise; even outside of side effects.
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Sounds vomit inducing
As opposed to the hypocritical mess of "hug this weeks fashionable dictator" and "kill that one" ?
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
and who you pick that are whiter than white (is that term still allowed btw?) to be on this virtuous panel. No doubt the criteria would soon shift to some woke cause soon enough as well. If this proposal ever came to pass no doubt a "dream" list of angels would include Greta Thurnberg Obama Bill Gates (bit controversial given he is a capitalist pig at heart but need some balance would the thinking goes) That Burmese woman who alternates between being a saint and being evil Marcus Rashford?
It would have to be evidence based - think NICE etc.
I know the regional list for Scotland isn’t being counted till tomorrow but won’t we have a very good idea today as to the chances of an SNP majority once the constituency votes are counted today .
They are not all being counted today. There are persistent rumours some are not even being counted tomorrow but on Sunday. But the constituencies today should give us a fairly high probability, yes.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
How - what seat do you force a retirement on that Burnham could win and still retain his Northern appeal?
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
There are still safe Labour seats in central Manchester, Liverpool, etc? Surely one of the MP's in those seats could be persuaded to to head to the Lords to parachute Burnham in to?
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Sounds vomit inducing
As opposed to the hypocritical mess of "hug this weeks fashionable dictator" and "kill that one" ?
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
and who you pick that are whiter than white (is that term still allowed btw?) to be on this virtuous panel. No doubt the criteria would soon shift to some woke cause soon enough as well. If this proposal ever came to pass no doubt a "dream" list of angels would include Greta Thurnberg Obama Bill Gates (bit controversial given he is a capitalist pig at heart but need some balance would the thinking goes) That Burmese woman who alternates between being a saint and being evil Marcus Rashford?
It would have to be evidence based - think NICE etc.
Whilst death and money can be measured (to set up NICE) . Goodness is not a measurable or absolute concept .
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
Meditate on the meaning of "peak."
Indeed, let us meditate:
Conservative majority when @IshmaelZ declared Boris Johnson's peak, and his luck exhausted: 80
Conservative majority a week later: 82
No doubt you must have been meditating on entirely novel meanings of 'peak' ...
Good morning all - a new dawn has broken, has it not?
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be Tory was very heaven...
Merci. The margin was a bit bigger than I predicted though. I thought between 3k and 4k.
There are reasons (as set out many times by me with my desiccated analyst hat on) why this is no political earthquake. Nevertheless it's "Tories Gain Hartlepool!", it deserves the exclamation mark, and a true blue partisan like you has every reason to revel in such an event. So don't let me stop you (as if).
But a word to the wise. Ishmael was wrong on Hartlepool but he is right on the bigger point. This IS peak Cons and trough Labour. Things will move the other way over the next couple of years. The next GE will likely be competitive. If the market thinks otherwise there'll be some terrific value bets and I'll be doing them.
Comments
It needs Starmer to become PM reliant on SNP confidence and supply ironically for the Nationalists to ever get their legal indyref2 granted before a generation has elapsed since 2014 and Labour as the early results show clearly have zero chance of a majority in England next time.
So Starmer will need SNP MPs support to become PM and the SNP need Starmer to become PM to get indyref2
Politicians never quite get used to the fact they are tools to voters. Means to an end.
Now I must go and work out, bye all
Lab will get there again I'm sure - not sure the path, that said.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
Such as the places where the bill payers live.
Top of my head: I would suggest changing unemployment and sickness benefits to be fit for the precarious employment of 21st century. I think the Dutch have been experimenting with this. If you lose your job your income doesn't suddenly drop to a foodbank level of £70 a week. You are supported to find new work. Change the whole idea of unemployment to a process of change to a changing economy as AI/robots takes over.
Who will last longer SKS as leader or Pres. Sleepy Joe Biden - tough to call.
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
That is the scale of Labours problem - they really can only use the people already in Parliament
I was always taught that there were two strands to the Labour Party; Marxism and Methodism, and the Methodists were the 'ordinary' people who wanted decent working conditions and so on. The trade unionists. The Marxists were the people who thought about a 'different' future, and wanted Socialism.
Every so often, back in the 60's, I wondered what would happen to the trade unions, both as battles were won and as the brighter boys and girls who would have, in my father's day. left school at 14 or 15 and before long worked their way into being workplace representatives, passed the 11+ and went on to become accountants, if they left at 16, or, if they stayed to 18 went to uni. Maybe they'd be the Methodists, but more likely the Marxists.If they stayed Labour.
20+ years ago I went on holiday to Slovenia, not too long after the end of Yugoslavia, and got talking to a chap from Sunderland, who was a union rep in one of the by then dying factories there. We talked about the change in Slovenia and he was quite censorious about the 'Lefties' who came to his factory, and whom he didn't recognise as members of the same movement as his.
Hmmmm.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Still suspect some behind the scenes deal was quietly done.
Ironically the only successful leadership plot was Tom Watson's against Blair in 2006... When they successfully removed their only leader to win general elections since 1974...
Long-Corbyn may endure for a long time yet and may be permanent.
https://www.ft.com/content/0288d7b1-1e52-4a3d-a9e1-6850afae0d26
Why would a Big 4 Accountancy firm sign off audits after their own Fraud prevention team have been blocked from investigating Fraud allegations?
Yes Burnham would be much better for LAB, winning back traditional supporters. He might lose some of the Metropolitan brigade in London and Brighton but LAB majorities in a lot of these places are big so it shouldn't be a problem.
Let that sink in.
You put up money. That Labour would win.
In Hartlepool.
Hur hur hur.....
Its Batley and Spent.
Probably a good thing. Not sure he'd want to give up his mayoralty, but we may find out.
Blair and Ashdown played the strategy successfully in 1997 behind the scenes; the question is how much overt electoral co-operation voters would stomach.
A key pre-condition is a wider cross-party platform on political reform. Labour still has way to go before it accepts it isn't going to be able to carry the flag by itself.
Once you've agreed, and campaigned on, the unfairness of the current voting system, and pledged to change it, short-term co-operation to achieve that end becomes a lot more sellable.
Well that settles it.
The semi-official Corbynite candidate was mullered worse than Labour, tbh.
But if we tentatively count third place Sam Lee as attracting left voters it would suggest an overall left to right swing of around 1%, and the result being almost entirely based on internal realignment on the left and right.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals
- Tariffs on imports.
- Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Lab 17 wards
LD 5 wards
Labour won 18 in 2018 and 17 in 2017.
South Tyneside
Lab 14 wards
Green 2 wards
Con 1 ward
Ind 1 ward
Lab won 14 wards in 2019 locals, 17 in 2018, 18 in 2016.
The first thing SKS and others need to do is identify what and where Labour's core vote currently is and then on how to expand it without completely scaring them away.
And with Boris in control that isn't an option - as I said yesterday the current battle grounds seem to be mutually exclusives islands where any gains in one set of voters costs votes in other sectors.
Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
Turn out for the party that wanted to make things harsher? No thanks. As BJO said recently, what are they offering the young?
Actually were I living in Hartlepool she would have got my vote.
Further on Burnham: he may want to steal a march on Khan.
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
SNP have gone same way and only independence has saved their skins, a clear out of the same ne'er do wells is overdue in Scotland as well, and it is all the Labour escapees that have been involved.
* Con got all the BXP/UKIP vote - which frankly is logical. If you vote for a single-issue party and they disappear, you look for the next party closest. Many thought they'd stop voting now. Not so.
* Labour also losing part of its own working-class Northern vote, but only a modest number to the Tories - the Indy vote in Hartlepool is startling too though overshadowed by the Tory triumph. And there must have been a lot of abstentions - the turnout in Hartlepool at 40% was feeble in the end after early talk of 70%. The reports of Tory areas turning out much more look right.
* No clear pattern on the centre-left - some Lab gains from LD/Green and some vice versa. But Labour doing fairly well in middle-class areas even in the North (Newcastle), so I suspect the Southern results will be better. The Midlands? Not so much. Street looks very safe to me.
* I retain some hopes for a decent result for Labour in Scotland.
Too soon to draw conclusions for Starmer and Labour's direction IMO.
Now for those with eyes to see, that popularity won't last, because its foundations are so shoddy. Populists are a bugger to get rid of, but they always fail to deliver for their countries[1]. What's maddeningly not clear is when Johnson's fall from grace will happen- I stick to my theory that it's a uniform probability of 10 years or 10 minutes.
But once Boris loses control, the strategic landscape changes; he's the only one who can appeal to sufficient numbers in both Hartlepool and Hazelmere. I don't know how it changes, I doubt that even the Conservatives do. But that's what the opposition needs to be ready for.
[1] As usual, I'd love to hear of a nation which has elected a populist government where the nation has thrived as a result. Please. Just one.
As I understand it there have been 10s of millions of vaccine doses that nobody in the US can use, and can't be exported either.
The ban on ingredients etc has caused production bottlenecks - the Serum Institute of India appealed directly to Biden to lift this ban 3 weeks ago I believe.
Greta Thurnberg
Obama
Bill Gates (bit controversial given he is a capitalist pig at heart but need some balance would the thinking goes)
That Burmese woman who alternates between being a saint and being evil
Marcus Rashford?
Not a surprise given by how much they lost the parliamentary seats in 2019. No sign of a partial come back
Conservative majority when @IshmaelZ declared Boris Johnson's peak, and his luck exhausted: 80
Conservative majority a week later: 82
No doubt you must have been meditating on entirely novel meanings of 'peak' ...
There are reasons (as set out many times by me with my desiccated analyst hat on) why this is no political earthquake. Nevertheless it's "Tories Gain Hartlepool!", it deserves the exclamation mark, and a true blue partisan like you has every reason to revel in such an event. So don't let me stop you (as if).
But a word to the wise. Ishmael was wrong on Hartlepool but he is right on the bigger point. This IS peak Cons and trough Labour. Things will move the other way over the next couple of years. The next GE will likely be competitive. If the market thinks otherwise there'll be some terrific value bets and I'll be doing them.