There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
Biden makes the EU look like the bad guys The US president is not only often as tough as Trump on Europe — he’s also stealing the moral high ground the EU loves.
As the article mention, Biden grabbing the moral high ground on vaccines is... ironic.
One of the first things he did in office was to use wartime legislation to block export of a range of vaccine production related materials as well as keeping the export ban for vaccines. The ban on material has hit the Indian production program massively. Which has hit both India and COVAX.
It's funny how little criticism there has been of this export ban, which has surely cost lives in places like India. Maybe the "left" give Biden a pass because he isn't Trump, and the "right" are only interested in things that make the EU look bad - so it doesn't really fit anyone's narrative.
The export ban is only temporary. Not sure a party that was advocating sending large amounts of vaccine to India before Uk citizens could have their vaccines would prosper.
Assuming by UK you mean US?
As I understand it there have been 10s of millions of vaccine doses that nobody in the US can use, and can't be exported either.
The ban on ingredients etc has caused production bottlenecks - the Serum Institute of India appealed directly to Biden to lift this ban 3 weeks ago I believe.
The US finally allowed export of AZN - which isn't licensed for use in the US.
Yes - the bigger issue than the ban on vaccines themselves has been on equipment and precursors.
There are American manufacturers lobbying on the basis that they have saturated the market for their stuff in the US and "could I please sell the rest abroad?"
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
"[Biden} is not at all a well man and won’t last another year."
Labour should try and get Burnham back into Parliament asap. Whilst no Blair I think he'd worry the Tories quite a lot.
If Tracy Brabin has won W Yorkshire mayor, Burnham can come back via Batley and Spen.
Yes Burnham would be much better for LAB, winning back traditional supporters. He might lose some of the Metropolitan brigade in London and Brighton but LAB majorities in a lot of these places are big so it shouldn't be a problem.
Sure they thought that about Castleford when Yvettes votes were being weighed what is her majority now?
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
Progress Labour and Momentum Labour can go and discover what they actually believe in and try to build a platform for election success unimpeded by the old name. I'd expect Momentum to double down on their pro-union anti-capitalism platform. They'll lose but they'll be happy.
What do Progress do? What do they believe and who are they speaking to? The obvious target market are the mass of people in the centre who vote for the SNP and the Tories because they like their socially progressive but not too much, fiscally conservative but not too priggish policies. Most normals want to live better lives but don't want to push other people down on their way up.
Boris's Blue Labour party have successfully captured most of these voters in England and the SNP the same in Scotland. South of the wall that coalition that sees voters in Hartlepool and the shires all voting the same way doesn't feel long term. One of the two will start breaking off and Progress has to be able to win Gloucester as much as Hartlepool.
The sense I get from speaking to Labour friends and reading posters on social media is that the party has already split and is currently trying to deny that divorce is inevitable. Pull the plug, get it done, rebuild.
Further on Burnham: he may want to steal a march on Khan.
I think Labour would be lucky if Khan and Burnham were both part of the next leadership contest.
One of the risks for Labour is that the leadership looks like a hospital pass, and some likely candidates might decide they're better off as a Mayor than trying to lead the national party.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
"[Biden} is not at all a well man and won’t last another year."
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
Progress Labour and Momentum Labour can go and discover what they actually believe in and try to build a platform for election success unimpeded by the old name. I'd expect Momentum to double down on their pro-union anti-capitalism platform. They'll lose but they'll be happy.
What do Progress do? What do they believe and who are they speaking to? The obvious target market are the mass of people in the centre who vote for the SNP and the Tories because they like their socially progressive but not too much, fiscally conservative but not too priggish policies. Most normals want to live better lives but don't want to push other people down on their way up.
Boris's Blue Labour party have successfully captured most of these voters in England and the SNP the same in Scotland. South of the wall that coalition that sees voters in Hartlepool and the shires all voting the same way doesn't feel long term. One of the two will start breaking off and Progress has to be able to win Gloucester as much as Hartlepool.
The sense I get from speaking to Labour friends and reading posters on social media is that the party has already split and is currently trying to deny that divorce is inevitable. Pull the plug, get it done, rebuild.
As mentioned earlier, if there was broad agreement beforehand on a PR coalition, also including the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, this could work. Labour should probably give Starmer, Rayner or whoever follows a year or possibly a little more before any radical shift like that first, though, I think.
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
Progress Labour and Momentum Labour can go and discover what they actually believe in and try to build a platform for election success unimpeded by the old name. I'd expect Momentum to double down on their pro-union anti-capitalism platform. They'll lose but they'll be happy.
What do Progress do? What do they believe and who are they speaking to? The obvious target market are the mass of people in the centre who vote for the SNP and the Tories because they like their socially progressive but not too much, fiscally conservative but not too priggish policies. Most normals want to live better lives but don't want to push other people down on their way up.
Boris's Blue Labour party have successfully captured most of these voters in England and the SNP the same in Scotland. South of the wall that coalition that sees voters in Hartlepool and the shires all voting the same way doesn't feel long term. One of the two will start breaking off and Progress has to be able to win Gloucester as much as Hartlepool.
The sense I get from speaking to Labour friends and reading posters on social media is that the party has already split and is currently trying to deny that divorce is inevitable. Pull the plug, get it done, rebuild.
Labour has behaved for some time as if we already have PR. Just a shame they forgot to carry through on their earlier promise to implement it.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
"[Biden} is not at all a well man and won’t last another year."
Evidence?
The way he is hidden from the media.
His bumbling when he is allowed on tv.
1. Strategy, opposite of Trumpsky's look at me me me me me me me me me.
2. You mean like the State of the Union? Or perhaps you & I didn't see the same address on our TVs?
Your "evidence" is weaker than Prince Andrew's televised rebuttal.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Labour are shafted, for now, much like the Conservatives were post 1997 until 2010. The Conservatives are parked firmly on Labour's lawn and taking their voters and seats, just as Blair did to the Conservatives (hello, Big G), even looking quite fiscally dry with Brown in the early years. Like the Conservatives, Labour is torn between doubling down on being 'real' Labour (with the added problem that 'real' Labour can be interpreted as socially conservative Euro-sceptic working class or socially liberal pro-EU chattering classes, whereas 'real Tory' was more clearly Euro-sceptic and reduce tax and spend) or being more like the Conservatives. The Conservatives got nowhere until they decided to drag themselves into the present and ape much of New Labour - matching spending plans, hugging a hoody, hugging a husky... Even then, without the GFC and Brown being a bit inept in the election campaign, they'd probably have failed. It's like the XKCD cartoon about Google+ - "What is it? Not Facebook! What's it Like? Facebook! Well, I guess that's all I wanted..." https://xkcd.com/918/ (Google+ failed, of course, because not enough people disliked Facebook to look at alternatives)
Labour have to do two things: (i) wait for the Conservatives to either actually or apparently mess up (or for something largely beyond their control to happen on their watch - Covid could have been it, had the vaccine strategy been messed up - e.g. if we'd been behind the EU) and (ii) make themselves a reasonable choice when that happens.
For (ii) Starmer being "not Corbyn" may actually be pretty much enough. He's dull, but there's little to actively dislike, not unlike Cameron. Some actual policies that speak to the masses would help too. Another Blair would, of course, help, but there were probably many centrist, non-scary Labour politicians who could have won in 1997. You don't have to be good to win - May won in 2017, afterall!
The other option, would be an amicable split, into an old-style northern Labour and a southern (and cities) metropolitan liberal elite party, with a non-agression pact and plans for coalition. But that won't happen amicably, because both sides believe they are 'real' Labour and would only accept the other side leaving to form a new party, not them. An acrimonius split would be a disaster.
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
SNP will stall anyway. They know the time isn’t right to win a referendum. They’ve already changed the tone to “vote SNP to lead us out of the pandemic and for recovery...”
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
I think the Labour Left can win on economic policies, because free stuff is always popular, but do need to jettison the foreign policy obsessions, such as Palestine. The Middle East is none of our business anymore, and rightly so.
Our lefty Middle Eastern policy is to stop interfering, recognise Palestine and stop providing weapons to Saudi's and Israel. Do you mean the left should abandon the idea to stop interfering?
Others will or might want more but I am talking about actual policy, the above was our interference in the Middle East under Corbyn and Ed (mostly I am pretty sure) which I would argue is more about stopping interfering than interfering more!
I mean stop speaking about Palestine and Israel at all.
Labour would regularly talk about other things, do you genuinely think the left were there being asked about their economic policies and said no lets talk about Israel Palestine instead?
It didn't happen, the right would focus on it in a way they don't focus on pro Israel or pro Saudi policy because they don't like it so try to make it a story. The truth is the majority of the public don't care one way on stuff like Israel-Palestine or Saudi-Yemen but Labour voters are more often left wing on foreign policy, so just keep the policy and don't talk about it (as much as possible) is the best way not to lose votes rather than say adopt a right wing foreign policy.
The problem you have is that fighting the war on the Palestinian front doesn't get you elected. You are better off electing a party that is popular because it does what the majority of voters want it to do back in the UK, but has a moral conscience when it comes to dealing with, for example Saudi Arabia. I agree with you that Blair was not that Prime Minister, but neither was Corbyn ( or Burgon , or RLB) because they are all unelectable.
What you need is a general policy that fits the moral position you want.
What about.... an advisory body, of the great and the good. They rate all the countries round the world, each year. Scores for human rights, environment etc - published. As a result of these scores, as determined by the numbers...
- Sanctions on individuals - Tariffs on imports. - Tarrifs on *export* of weapons to the countries concerned.
All to a declared rating system.
Sounds vomit inducing
As opposed to the hypocritical mess of "hug this weeks fashionable dictator" and "kill that one" ?
The real problem with my proposal would be the inevitable trade war with China.
and who you pick that are whiter than white (is that term still allowed btw?) to be on this virtuous panel. No doubt the criteria would soon shift to some woke cause soon enough as well. If this proposal ever came to pass no doubt a "dream" list of angels would include Greta Thurnberg Obama Bill Gates (bit controversial given he is a capitalist pig at heart but need some balance would the thinking goes) That Burmese woman who alternates between being a saint and being evil Marcus Rashford?
It would have to be evidence based - think NICE etc.
Whilst death and money can be measured (to set up NICE) . Goodness is not a measurable or absolute concept .
Genocide has a internationally accepted definition, for example.
There are already a number of ways in which the government officially rates countries - part of the immigration process, for example.
Labour has been obliterated in Dudley. Only won 3 wards. Not a surprise given by how much they lost the parliamentary seats in 2019. No sign of a partial come back
Nuneaton and Bedworth - Labour had 11 councillors going up for re-election yesterday - just one remains.
I said it at the time - Labour should have voted for Theresa May's soft Brexit deal (which I think Corbyn would have done to be fair) and then watched the Tories implode. But they went with the "People's Vote" idea instead and tried to overturn the whole thing.
Who was at the forefront of the "People's Vote" strategy within the PLP? Starmer. A Starmer leadership was never going to work in Hartlepool and places like it...
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Labour are shafted, for now, much like the Conservatives were post 1997 until 2010. The Conservatives are parked firmly on Labour's lawn and taking their voters and seats, just as Blair did to the Conservatives (hello, Big G), even looking quite fiscally dry with Brown in the early years. Like the Conservatives, Labour is torn between doubling down on being 'real' Labour (with the added problem that 'real' Labour can be interpreted as socially conservative Euro-sceptic working class or socially liberal pro-EU chattering classes, whereas 'real Tory' was more clearly Euro-sceptic and reduce tax and spend) or being more like the Conservatives. The Conservatives got nowhere until they decided to drag themselves into the present and ape much of New Labour - matching spending plans, hugging a hoody, hugging a husky... Even then, without the GFC and Brown being a bit inept in the election campaign, they'd probably have failed. It's like the XKCD cartoon about Google+ - "What is it? Not Facebook! What's it Like? Facebook! Well, I guess that's all I wanted..." https://xkcd.com/918/ (Google+ failed, of course, because not enough people disliked Facebook to look at alternatives)
Labour have to do two things: (i) wait for the Conservatives to either actually or apparently mess up (or for something largely beyond their control to happen on their watch - Covid could have been it, had the vaccine strategy been messed up - e.g. if we'd been behind the EU) and (ii) make themselves a reasonable choice when that happens.
For (ii) Starmer being "not Corbyn" may actually be pretty much enough. He's dull, but there's little to actively dislike, not unlike Cameron. Some actual policies that speak to the masses would help too. Another Blair would, of course, help, but there were probably many centrist, non-scary Labour politicians who could have won in 1997. You don't have to be good to win - May won in 2017, afterall!
The other option, would be an amicable split, into an old-style northern Labour and a southern (and cities) metropolitan liberal elite party, with a non-agression pact and plans for coalition. But that won't happen amicably, because both sides believe they are 'real' Labour and would only accept the other side leaving to form a new party, not them. An acrimonius split would be a disaster.
IMHO there's still a good chance of a serious economic reverse within the short to medium term.
People who keep going on about an imminent 'roaring twenties' after the lockdown ends sometimes forget what happened thereafter.
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
SNP will stall anyway. They know the time isn’t right to win a referendum. They’ve already changed the tone to “vote SNP to lead us out of the pandemic and for recovery...”
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
In 1861, Abraham Lincoln worked overtime keeping his powder dry and maneuvering the Confederacy into firing the first shot at Ft Sumter. Because he realized that it made a BIG difference, and could well be critical, even decisive. Not just near term, but to the final outcome.
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
You're right, but FPTP?
Momentum will wither away fairly quickly. A few hotspots in inner-cities will stay with them, but otherwise they have no real electoral route forward.
Progress could do rather well if they can hoover up the dispossessed voters currently sat in the Johnson Blue Labour coalition. I can see the red blue wall staying blue, but the shire towns going red.
Don't get hung up by the colours. Post Brexit we now identify the parties with the same colours as they do in America.
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
Meditate on the meaning of "peak."
Indeed, let us meditate:
Conservative majority when @IshmaelZ declared Boris Johnson's peak, and his luck exhausted: 80
Conservative majority a week later: 82
No doubt you must have been meditating on entirely novel meanings of 'peak' ...
For all your copy pasting of the classics you seem to have missed some pretty basic messages. You sound like Oedipus at the beginning of the OT; what happened next?
And do you still think Johnson played a blinder over Barnard castle!
Day 1 of local election results likely to be dominated by Hartlepool. Days 2+ by national elections in Scotland and Wales. But there’s evidence of the stirrings of a wider Green movement as a better/revived vehicle for progressive politics over the next 20 yrs vs Labour
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
Proof at least that the UKIP vote doesn't always switch across to the Tory
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
Arsenal out of the Europa League means 4th place is a Champions League spot, of interest to LCFC, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham fans.
Yes and erm, Tottenham too. They're only 1 point behind West Ham and Chelsea-Leicester have to play each other and then the final game is Spurs v Leicester.
Outside chance but a chance nonetheless, especially if they play like they did Sunday.
Indeed. Tottenham shouldn’t be discounted because they have a winnable run-in. They play Leeds away in pouring rain tomorrow lunchtime though - that’s not easy.
With the Champions league guaranteeing either City or Chelsea to gain automatic entry into next year's competition and should Man United win the European league, with again automatic qualification to next year's champions league, does that mean 6 Premier clubs go into next year competition
I cannot see that happening, so does anyone know how next seasons places will be awarded
No.
The winner of the Champions League and Europa League only matters if they have NOT qualified by virtue of being in the Top 4. Both Manchester clubs will be in the Top 4 so it's moot for them.
If Chelsea finish outside the Top 4 but with the Champions League then they get qualification. Same if Arsenal had won Europa. If only one qualification comes this way then England gets 4 clubs.
In the unlikely event that both the CL and the EL are won by not-Top 4 clubs then England are capped to 5 clubs, so it becomes Top 3 and CL and EL winners, with 4th missing out. Since Arsenal were eliminated that's now impossible this season.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
"[Biden} is not at all a well man and won’t last another year."
Evidence?
The way he is hidden from the media.
His bumbling when he is allowed on tv.
He's a busy man obsessed with governing rather than grandstanding like his predecessor. As he's bumbled on TV all his life.
Not much in the way of evidence for his impending demise.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Tories still need properly to bed in in the North / Red Wall, as mentioned on Today programme early this morning, and I am not sure yet that they will be bold enough on structural change. They need long term things rather than short-term bungs - and these have not yet turned into long term policies.
IMO It needs the voting (and membership) balances to change so that the Tory establishment takes notice, and is genuinely open to change in a way that chinless panjandrums in the SE won't prevent.
And I'd say that Lab need a similar process of some sort.
Both imo would be good things, with wider coalitions.
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
You're right, but FPTP?
Momentum will wither away fairly quickly. A few hotspots in inner-cities will stay with them, but otherwise they have no real electoral route forward.
Progress could do rather well if they can hoover up the dispossessed voters currently sat in the Johnson Blue Labour coalition. I can see the red blue wall staying blue, but the shire towns going red.
Don't get hung up by the colours. Post Brexit we now identify the parties with the same colours as they do in America.
I don't think the split would be solely between momentum and progress, but as mentioned probably more likely between a wider urban liberal/northern populist split. If co-operation was agreed, with one party winning in London and Bristol, and the other in Bolton and Doncaster, it could work.
Labour's natural vote is becoming very middle class. They need to look to Biden tbh
Biden almost lost the House, didn't take the Senate and only took the Presidency because he was up against a madman. For a verdict on Biden we need to see how the blue collar belt respond to him in 2022 and 2024.
British politics are very different to American politics - we already import far too much nonsense from there IMHO.
The chances of Biden standing in the next POTUS election are smaller than a very very small thing. In fact, the chances of him still being POTUS this time next year don’t exist. He is mentally gone already and was before he was elected. Everyone in the USA media knew it but they were so desperate to get the bad orange man out they would have ignored it if he had died.
Biden as Demented Vegetable. "Everybody in the USA media knew it".
What a load of total horseshit.
Next you'll be telling us that Trumpsky is still the Secret President.
Biden is gonna run for re-election in 2024. Wait for it.
As for 2022, his COVID response plus infrastructure & other action targeted to middle/working class taxpayers will help him in his quest to do what most presidents have done before: pick up seats in Congress in their first mid-term election.
Nope. No dog in this fight. The Dems put in someone they thought would be the least offensive to the blue collars. He is, but he is not at all a well man and won’t last another year.
"[Biden} is not at all a well man and won’t last another year."
Evidence?
The way he is hidden from the media.
His bumbling when he is allowed on tv.
He doesn't run around ranting on Twatter like Trump. Seems like he tries doing politics instead.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
I'm slagging @MarqueeMark off because he is an ignorant, friendless, twat.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Labour are shafted, for now, much like the Conservatives were post 1997 until 2010. The Conservatives are parked firmly on Labour's lawn and taking their voters and seats, just as Blair did to the Conservatives (hello, Big G), even looking quite fiscally dry with Brown in the early years. Like the Conservatives, Labour is torn between doubling down on being 'real' Labour (with the added problem that 'real' Labour can be interpreted as socially conservative Euro-sceptic working class or socially liberal pro-EU chattering classes, whereas 'real Tory' was more clearly Euro-sceptic and reduce tax and spend) or being more like the Conservatives. The Conservatives got nowhere until they decided to drag themselves into the present and ape much of New Labour - matching spending plans, hugging a hoody, hugging a husky... Even then, without the GFC and Brown being a bit inept in the election campaign, they'd probably have failed. It's like the XKCD cartoon about Google+ - "What is it? Not Facebook! What's it Like? Facebook! Well, I guess that's all I wanted..." https://xkcd.com/918/ (Google+ failed, of course, because not enough people disliked Facebook to look at alternatives)
Labour have to do two things: (i) wait for the Conservatives to either actually or apparently mess up (or for something largely beyond their control to happen on their watch - Covid could have been it, had the vaccine strategy been messed up - e.g. if we'd been behind the EU) and (ii) make themselves a reasonable choice when that happens.
For (ii) Starmer being "not Corbyn" may actually be pretty much enough. He's dull, but there's little to actively dislike, not unlike Cameron. Some actual policies that speak to the masses would help too. Another Blair would, of course, help, but there were probably many centrist, non-scary Labour politicians who could have won in 1997. You don't have to be good to win - May won in 2017, afterall!
The other option, would be an amicable split, into an old-style northern Labour and a southern (and cities) metropolitan liberal elite party, with a non-agression pact and plans for coalition. But that won't happen amicably, because both sides believe they are 'real' Labour and would only accept the other side leaving to form a new party, not them. An acrimonius split would be a disaster.
As IanB2 says, there are two Labour parties - metropolitan left and hard left - neither of which appeal to small town England. There used to be three Labours. There used to be a Labour party which spoke to voters in places like Dudley and Doncaster, but you don't see much of that Labour Party any more. Ian Austin and Caroline Flint were amongst the last examples of that sort of Labour Party.
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
You're right, but FPTP?
Momentum will wither away fairly quickly. A few hotspots in inner-cities will stay with them, but otherwise they have no real electoral route forward.
Progress could do rather well if they can hoover up the dispossessed voters currently sat in the Johnson Blue Labour coalition. I can see the red blue wall staying blue, but the shire towns going red.
Don't get hung up by the colours. Post Brexit we now identify the parties with the same colours as they do in America.
I don't think the split would be solely between momentum and progress, but as mentioned probably more likely an urban liberal/northern populist split. If co-operation was agreed, with one party winning in London and Bristol, and the other in Bolton and Doncaster, it could work.
A shame they can't leap to the sort of arrangement the CDU/CSU have, with a regional split and differently pitched policy programmes yet teaming up in parliament.
The 'northern' bit could use the name and infrastructure that already exists of the Co-operative party.
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
SNP will stall anyway. They know the time isn’t right to win a referendum. They’ve already changed the tone to “vote SNP to lead us out of the pandemic and for recovery...”
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
That would require a level of bold decisiveness for which the PM isn't renowned
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
SNP will stall anyway. They know the time isn’t right to win a referendum. They’ve already changed the tone to “vote SNP to lead us out of the pandemic and for recovery...”
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
In 1861, Abraham Lincoln worked overtime keeping his powder dry and maneuvering the Confederacy into firing the first shot at Ft Sumter. Because he realized that it made a BIG difference, and could well be critical, even decisive. Not just near term, but to the final outcome.
In 1914 the French implemented rule 1 of Revanche - "The Germans must clearly start the next war"
Proof at least that the UKIP vote doesn't always switch across to the Tory
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
Sandhill (Sutherland) looks very idiosyncratic on its face. Perhaps the winning candidate switched parties?
Sure would be interesting to find out what the deal really was there.
I wonder if the Scottish Conservatives will cannibalise the pro-Brexit vote in the same way as the party South of border has.
More than they have already? I think you might be projecting Brexit as an article of faith which it may be in England but not so much in Scotland. Eurosceptic SNPers have Alba to scratch that particular itch in any case.
Proof at least that the UKIP vote doesn't always switch across to the Tory
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
Sandhill (Sutherland) looks very idiosyncratic on its face. Perhaps the winning candidate switched parties?
Sure would be interesting to find out what the deal really was there.
No sign of anything like that here. The LibDem candidate says he's been part of the wider local LibDem team. The Labour candidate appears to be defending his record as the incumbent.
My feeling is that Starmer isn't strong enough to change the party sufficiently to win again the way Blair/Brown/Mandelson did.
The other problem is that Mandleson is imagining the same sort of transformation that Blair achieved - ditching the left and re-inventing Labour-lite for the middle classes. But today's challenge isn't the same as yesterday's. The loss of the Northern working class base is a mix of left-wing Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters and New Labour's pre-occupation with stuff that doesn't interest working class voters either.
In a weird sense, the critiques offered by both Labour right and Labour left have something in them, which may explain why the argument between them has become so heated and so futile.
Labour are shafted, for now, much like the Conservatives were post 1997 until 2010. The Conservatives are parked firmly on Labour's lawn and taking their voters and seats, just as Blair did to the Conservatives (hello, Big G), even looking quite fiscally dry with Brown in the early years. Like the Conservatives, Labour is torn between doubling down on being 'real' Labour (with the added problem that 'real' Labour can be interpreted as socially conservative Euro-sceptic working class or socially liberal pro-EU chattering classes, whereas 'real Tory' was more clearly Euro-sceptic and reduce tax and spend) or being more like the Conservatives. The Conservatives got nowhere until they decided to drag themselves into the present and ape much of New Labour - matching spending plans, hugging a hoody, hugging a husky... Even then, without the GFC and Brown being a bit inept in the election campaign, they'd probably have failed. It's like the XKCD cartoon about Google+ - "What is it? Not Facebook! What's it Like? Facebook! Well, I guess that's all I wanted..." https://xkcd.com/918/ (Google+ failed, of course, because not enough people disliked Facebook to look at alternatives)
Labour have to do two things: (i) wait for the Conservatives to either actually or apparently mess up (or for something largely beyond their control to happen on their watch - Covid could have been it, had the vaccine strategy been messed up - e.g. if we'd been behind the EU) and (ii) make themselves a reasonable choice when that happens.
For (ii) Starmer being "not Corbyn" may actually be pretty much enough. He's dull, but there's little to actively dislike, not unlike Cameron. Some actual policies that speak to the masses would help too. Another Blair would, of course, help, but there were probably many centrist, non-scary Labour politicians who could have won in 1997. You don't have to be good to win - May won in 2017, afterall!
The other option, would be an amicable split, into an old-style northern Labour and a southern (and cities) metropolitan liberal elite party, with a non-agression pact and plans for coalition. But that won't happen amicably, because both sides believe they are 'real' Labour and would only accept the other side leaving to form a new party, not them. An acrimonius split would be a disaster.
IMHO there's still a good chance of a serious economic reverse within the short to medium term. .
FT : "Bank of England forecasts fastest UK growth rate in over 70 years
Higher estimate all but eliminates the possibility that central bank will set a negative interest rate this year"
The solution for Labour is the same as for UB40 - split in two.
You're right, but FPTP?
Momentum will wither away fairly quickly. A few hotspots in inner-cities will stay with them, but otherwise they have no real electoral route forward.
Progress could do rather well if they can hoover up the dispossessed voters currently sat in the Johnson Blue Labour coalition. I can see the red blue wall staying blue, but the shire towns going red.
Don't get hung up by the colours. Post Brexit we now identify the parties with the same colours as they do in America.
I don't think the split would be solely between momentum and progress, but as mentioned probably more likely an urban liberal/northern populist split. If co-operation was agreed, with one party winning in London and Bristol, and the other in Bolton and Doncaster, it could work.
A shame they can't leap to the sort of arrangement the CDU/CSU have, with a regional split and differently pitched policy programmes yet teaming up in parliament.
The 'northern' bit could use the name and infrastructure that already exists of the Co-operative party.
Perhaps. But wouldn't it alienate potential Co-operative party voters just as much that their representatives were propping up the likes of either a) Corbyn or b) Starmer in parliament?
Good morning all - a new dawn has broken, has it not?
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be Tory was very heaven...
Merci. The margin was a bit bigger than I predicted though. I thought between 3k and 4k.
There are reasons (as set out many times by me with my desiccated analyst hat on) why this is no political earthquake. Nevertheless it's "Tories Gain Hartlepool!", it deserves the exclamation mark, and a true blue partisan like you has every reason to revel in such an event. So don't let me stop you (as if).
But a word to the wise. Ishmael was wrong on Hartlepool but he is right on the bigger point. This IS peak Cons and trough Labour. Things will move the other way over the next couple of years. The next GE will likely be competitive. If the market thinks otherwise there'll be some terrific value bets and I'll be doing them.
I'd agree with that. Although I hate the direction the Conservative Party has moved, I still am not keen on seeing a Labour government, so I think I might be reasonably balanced in what I am going to say.
We are living in extraordinary times. We are in the middle of a pandemic. That could have easily meant that things could have gone badly for the government electorally, but they haven't. The vaccine has definitely saved the day for Johnson's Conservatives. Whoever advised the procurement programme has saved Johnson's bacon, and despite my dislike of him he deserves credit for taking the risk of authorising it.
Voters have short memories though. As Wilson is said to have said, a week is a long time in politics, and Macmillan said "events". Johnson has a huge amount of chinks in his armour. The hope for Labour supporters is that those become magnified over time in office, and that they can put together a programme that at least inspires enough people to vote for them at a GE. For me, I voted for them for the first time in my life yesterday. They would need to do a lot of convincing for me to vote for them at a GE.
I wonder if the Scottish Conservatives will cannibalise the pro-Brexit vote in the same way as the party South of border has.
More than they have already? I think you might be projecting Brexit as an article of faith which it may be in England but not so much in Scotland. Eurosceptic SNPers have Alba to scratch that particular itch in any case.
Plus the Scot Cons have spent the last 5 years meekly apologising for Brexit and most of the stuff that Boris is winning on.
Handwringing doesn't win many votes - as SKS is finding out.
From Maomentum on Twitter for the attention of Jezziah:
APOLOGY We may have previously inadvertently given the impression that Labour's loss of Red Wall seats was part of a decades' long trend and not the fault of the leader. We now realise in fact that any future loss of Red Wall seats will be solely the fault of Keir Starmer. Thanks
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
Agree on 1 & 3.
2 I think is more nuanced - because of the vagaries of FPTP. If there is a clear demand for indyref2 then that needs to be carefully considered - after all the union requires consent.
Equally it's not a given that it should be granted. For example a bare majority of 1 MSP based on a minority of the vote probably is not sufficient, but a 66% vote on the constituency+list vote combined clearly is. The break point is somewhere in between.
Finally it is reasonable that the Section 30 comes with conditions - e.g. no more referendums for a defined period, etc. Non indy supporters have a right to a stable settlement and shouldn't face turmoil every 4 years just because of a minority of malcontents
Good morning all - a new dawn has broken, has it not?
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be Tory was very heaven...
But a word to the wise. Ishmael was wrong on Hartlepool but he is right on the bigger point. This IS peak Cons and trough Labour. Things will move the other way over the next couple of years. The next GE will likely be competitive. If the market thinks otherwise there'll be some terrific value bets and I'll be doing them.
You still don't really have an idea of what has happened, with respect. Even until y'day you hadn't got this.
I think you need to go away and reflect on what happened, why it happened and what Labour may or may not be able to do about it.
Until you have you'll forgive us for taking little or no notice of what you consider is going to happen next or what you consider to be "value".
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
There is the fourth scenario where the SNP do well in Scotland but find ways to slow peddle on asking for the Indyref, for fear that this may not be the best time to make the big gamble?
SNP will stall anyway. They know the time isn’t right to win a referendum. They’ve already changed the tone to “vote SNP to lead us out of the pandemic and for recovery...”
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
In 1861, Abraham Lincoln worked overtime keeping his powder dry and maneuvering the Confederacy into firing the first shot at Ft Sumter. Because he realized that it made a BIG difference, and could well be critical, even decisive. Not just near term, but to the final outcome.
In 1914 the French implemented rule 1 of Revanche - "The Germans must clearly start the next war"
This turned out to be the winning move of WWI.
By firing the first shot at Fort Sumter, the Confederates rallied the North behind Lincoln and the fight to preserve the Union. Which was NOT a foregone conclusion.
Lincoln's call for volunteers did propel the Upper South states of Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina and (most significantly) Virginia to abandon neutrality and join with the Deep South in the Confederacy. But Lincoln (I think) had already calculated on that happening anyway, once the shooting started.
However, Lincoln's initial restraint helped enable him to keep the slave Border States of Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri in the Union. (Delaware was never in question.) Not just restraint; he used armed force to keep the lid on in Maryland and Missouri.
As for Kentucky, economically tied to the North but culturally linked to the South, and hence deeply divided (two of his own brothers-in-law ended up serving in the Confederate Army) Lincoln again played a winning waiting game. By NOT challenging Kentucky's declared neutrality, but instead holding off - until the Confederates invaded the Blue Grass State, which tipped the balance toward the Union.
Retention of the Border was just as strategically significant - indeed decisive in the long run - as rallying the North.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
I'm slagging @MarqueeMark off because he is an ignorant, friendless, twat.
From Maomentum on Twitter for the attention of Jezziah:
APOLOGY We may have previously inadvertently given the impression that Labour's loss of Red Wall seats was part of a decades' long trend and not the fault of the leader. We now realise in fact that any future loss of Red Wall seats will be solely the fault of Keir Starmer. Thanks
There are three routes for Boris Johnson on Scotland.
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable. In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
Agree on 1 & 3.
2 I think is more nuanced - because of the vagaries of FPTP. If there is a clear demand for indyref2 then that needs to be carefully considered - after all the union requires consent.
Equally it's not a given that it should be granted. For example a bare majority of 1 MSP based on a minority of the vote probably is not sufficient, but a 66% vote on the constituency+list vote combined clearly is. The break point is somewhere in between.
Finally it is reasonable that the Section 30 comes with conditions - e.g. no more referendums for a defined period, etc. Non indy supporters have a right to a stable settlement and shouldn't face turmoil every 4 years just because of a minority of malcontents
A way forward. Scottish Independence is to the Tories what Brexit is to Labour. You may not like it, you may disagree with it, but if people want it and vote for it you can't just refuse them.
I am not expecting the results up here to be narrow as you suggest. I voted LibDem / LibDem so I don't want an SNP / Green / Alba tidal wave but I think we're about to get it. If thats the democratic will of the people as expressed via the established system of democracy then it is either carried out or it is not a democracy.
England can choose to say no to another referendum. But will lose the very thing it claims to stand for - the United Kingdom.
This week we continue to see low levels of cases again which, according to Tim, indicate COVID-19 is becoming endemic in the UK. Unlike a pandemic affecting diverse populations around the world, endemic refers to a situation where the virus is found regularly among particular pockets of the population. In short, COVID-19 is here to stay but at low levels with minor outbreaks from time to time.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
I'm slagging @MarqueeMark off because he is an ignorant, friendless, twat.
But your point is extremely well made.
Value trap is the expression.
Yes I'm sure it is. It would have been an "upset". Of which one or two have happened these past few years political betting-wise.
"Wherever he campaigned during this local elections run, Starmer looked like the classic smalltown detective battling his demons, who’s been transferred there from somewhere else in circumstances he doesn’t like to talk about. I quite like Angela Rayner as his earthy, big-hearted local DS, but she doesn’t seem to get any screentime. You get the feeling that DI Starmer is still haunted by the case of a drowned socialite he failed to solve 15 years ago. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, was shagging the socialite and probably accidentally drove the car off a pier then left her to die. And at some level, an aspirational public respects the work."
Proof at least that the UKIP vote doesn't always switch across to the Tory
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
Sandhill (Sutherland) looks very idiosyncratic on its face. Perhaps the winning candidate switched parties?
Sure would be interesting to find out what the deal really was there.
No sign of anything like that here. The LibDem candidate says he's been part of the wider local LibDem team. The Labour candidate appears to be defending his record as the incumbent.
@TOPPING FWIW I think you were right to take a few quid on Labour at 23s last night.
The voting might have ended but the counting hadn't started and constituency polls have been badly wrong before.
There was not a single piece of polling, insight, anecdote or even gut feeling that has suggested for weeks this would be anything but a tidy Tory win.
But well done for topping up the Shadsy Christmas Party fund.
Don't be a polling slave.
You are demonstrating that you have no political nous whatsoever.
None.
The only person betting for Labour to win was someone who had seen all the relevant information laid out before them - and come to 180 degrees the wrong interpretation.
Were the aperçus and gut feel about the Hartlepool election result particularly emphatic in the leafy West Country?
Clearly. Cuz I don't know anyone down here who was dumb enough to put good money on Labour winning in Hartlepool.
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
I'm slagging @MarqueeMark off because he is an ignorant, friendless, twat.
But your point is extremely well made.
Value trap is the expression.
Yes I'm sure it is. It would have been an "upset". Of which one or two have happened these past few years political betting-wise.
I'm not judging. I recognised the temptation and resisted it.
Mr. Pulpstar, not surprising to see UKIP fall off an electoral cliff, but Labour's decline is almost of the same magnitude.
In fairness, UKIP had two things. Brexit and Nigel Farage. Now both are gone, they have to find a new “big issue”. This has led to, I believe, major splits.
This week we continue to see low levels of cases again which, according to Tim, indicate COVID-19 is becoming endemic in the UK. Unlike a pandemic affecting diverse populations around the world, endemic refers to a situation where the virus is found regularly among particular pockets of the population. In short, COVID-19 is here to stay but at low levels with minor outbreaks from time to time.
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
Meditate on the meaning of "peak."
Indeed, let us meditate:
Conservative majority when @IshmaelZ declared Boris Johnson's peak, and his luck exhausted: 80
Conservative majority a week later: 82
No doubt you must have been meditating on entirely novel meanings of 'peak' ...
For all your copy pasting of the classics you seem to have missed some pretty basic messages. You sound like Oedipus at the beginning of the OT; what happened next?
And do you still think Johnson played a blinder over Barnard castle!
Ah, but look back a step and ask yourself why Greek myth is so rich in stories of hubris and nemesis. It's precisely because of their real-life tendency to enjoy victory to the full and not give a damn about its eventual reversal. And that's one Hellenic custom I fully intend to honour.
And what about Barnard Castle? Tory polling recovered just fine and Boris continues to dominate the political scene. More particularly, it was the first, vital step in teaching the media that their opinions don't get to dictate what happens in this country any longer. Wallpapergate will be the second.
Good morning all - a new dawn has broken, has it not?
O pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be Tory was very heaven...
But a word to the wise. Ishmael was wrong on Hartlepool but he is right on the bigger point. This IS peak Cons and trough Labour. Things will move the other way over the next couple of years. The next GE will likely be competitive. If the market thinks otherwise there'll be some terrific value bets and I'll be doing them.
You still don't really have an idea of what has happened, with respect. Even until y'day you hadn't got this.
I think you need to go away and reflect on what happened, why it happened and what Labour may or may not be able to do about it.
Until you have you'll forgive us for taking little or no notice of what you consider is going to happen next or what you consider to be "value".
Up to you what weight you give to the views and predictions of someone who is almost invariably proved right.
Proof at least that the UKIP vote doesn't always switch across to the Tory
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
Three seats with swings of that magnitude. I wonder why?
I wonder if the Scottish Conservatives will cannibalise the pro-Brexit vote in the same way as the party South of border has.
More than they have already? I think you might be projecting Brexit as an article of faith which it may be in England but not so much in Scotland. Eurosceptic SNPers have Alba to scratch that particular itch in any case.
Trouble with voting in Edinburgh is the SNP constituency candidates are loaded with absolute wankers
I'd worried about SNP candidates winning and then jumping to Alba. She is absolute prime candidate number 1. However Unionist tactical voting will keep her out.
Many Labour MPs put all the blame for their 2019 defeat on Jeremy Corbyn. He was certainly a big factor but this narrative obscures the huge underlying challenges Labour faces. It is in a tougher situation today than the mid 1980s THREAD 1/n
I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak.
Lol! Has his luck run out yet? Someone who thinks they're clever was certain it already had.
Meditate on the meaning of "peak."
Indeed, let us meditate:
Conservative majority when @IshmaelZ declared Boris Johnson's peak, and his luck exhausted: 80
Conservative majority a week later: 82
No doubt you must have been meditating on entirely novel meanings of 'peak' ...
For all your copy pasting of the classics you seem to have missed some pretty basic messages. You sound like Oedipus at the beginning of the OT; what happened next?
And do you still think Johnson played a blinder over Barnard castle!
Ah, but look back a step and ask why Greek myth is so rich in stories of hubris and nemesis? Precisely because of their real-life tendency to enjoy victory to the full and not give a damn about its eventual reversal. And that's one Hellenic custom I fully intend to honour.
And what about Barnard Castle? Tory polling recovered just fine and Boris continues to dominate the political scene. More particularly, it was the first, vital step in teaching the media that their opinions don't get to dictate what happens in this country any more. Wallpapergate will be the second.
Ah, you have articulated the authoritarian tendency of the populist movement that has spread like a cancer through the Conservative party.
The media and judiciary are important balances in a free society on an overly powerful executive, particularly when the legislature has become supine. If the Conservatives have become as complacent as you appear to represent there will most certainly be a day of reckoning for the populists at some time in the future. The drip drip effect of media stories will either cause sensible heads within the Conservatives to address their weaknesses and reform internally (which would be a good thing), or eventually the electorate will turn them out.
"Wherever he campaigned during this local elections run, Starmer looked like the classic smalltown detective battling his demons, who’s been transferred there from somewhere else in circumstances he doesn’t like to talk about. I quite like Angela Rayner as his earthy, big-hearted local DS, but she doesn’t seem to get any screentime. You get the feeling that DI Starmer is still haunted by the case of a drowned socialite he failed to solve 15 years ago. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, was shagging the socialite and probably accidentally drove the car off a pier then left her to die. And at some level, an aspirational public respects the work."
lol.
Plebs like plebs. And they love and defer to the colourful powerful rich. What they hate are middle class professional types. Hence why the talk of being driven by "aspiration" is the most utter horseshit.
So Labour lefties think that the reason they lost Hartlepool was because they weren't loony lefty enough? And the response to the huge defeat there is to double down on Corbyn policies? If that is the case they are deluded beyond belief. Sorry, Jezziah, but your diagnosis is so, so wrong.
In trying to hold both the metro elite and the working class Labour vote together SKS has an impossible task: you can't take the knee wrapped in the Union flag and please both constituencies; you end up alienating both of them. He needs to choose, as Casino mentioned upthread.
Despite people on the left of centre deriding the "culture war" as non-existent, to me it is very real. I was amazed by last evening's discussion on here that so many people had never experienced the impact of wokeness as work. I work for a large US (East Coast) global corporation and our senior management and HR are obsessed by it - our cooperate intranet is like the BBC home page with article after article on E, D & I. Maybe smaller UK firms have yet to be afflicted by it but if anyone has access to the CIPD magazine you will get an idea what is coming in terms of UK HR - the CIPD has bought into the woke agenda hook, line and sinker.
This stuff is not going away. The people of Hartlepool may not be exposed to it in the workplace (yet) but they can see the way it is affecting popular culture and they don't like it.
For now, the Conservatives have parked their tanks on Labour's lawn when it comes to government spending and Boris is seen as standing up for traditional British values. Labour's only response to government spending is to spend more, which lacks credibility, and it appears to be actively against traditional British values.
So what does Labour do? Is the plan to sit and wait for the Tories to implode (most likely when the COVID spending chickens come home to roost), keep the fragile coalition together and hope that by that time demographics have worked in its favour? It might work but it doesn't really address the fundamental issue of where it stands on the British values question.
Blair won for a reason; when the time came, mainstream Britain was not repelled by Labour. It is now.
Comments
1. HYUFD's idea which is just silly
2. If the SNP win a majority he will have to go for an indyref2. Why? Because however much the aforementioned might like to plant his head deep into the desert sand, Brexit clearly changed the constitutional fabric of this union of nations and Scotland didn't vote for it. The HYUFD way would lead to an appalling disruption in the union and it would be unconscionable.
In this scenario Boris would be best to tackle it head on: call the referendum and go in full support for the union with all guns blazing
3. If the SNP don't win a majority THEN Boris could justify canning it. He will then be able to say, 'look you pitched for a majority on the basis of indyref2 and you didn't get it, just like you didn't win the independence referendum first time around. It's over.'
Yes - the bigger issue than the ban on vaccines themselves has been on equipment and precursors.
There are American manufacturers lobbying on the basis that they have saturated the market for their stuff in the US and "could I please sell the rest abroad?"
Evidence?
Progress Labour and Momentum Labour can go and discover what they actually believe in and try to build a platform for election success unimpeded by the old name. I'd expect Momentum to double down on their pro-union anti-capitalism platform. They'll lose but they'll be happy.
What do Progress do? What do they believe and who are they speaking to? The obvious target market are the mass of people in the centre who vote for the SNP and the Tories because they like their socially progressive but not too much, fiscally conservative but not too priggish policies. Most normals want to live better lives but don't want to push other people down on their way up.
Boris's Blue Labour party have successfully captured most of these voters in England and the SNP the same in Scotland. South of the wall that coalition that sees voters in Hartlepool and the shires all voting the same way doesn't feel long term. One of the two will start breaking off and Progress has to be able to win Gloucester as much as Hartlepool.
The sense I get from speaking to Labour friends and reading posters on social media is that the party has already split and is currently trying to deny that divorce is inevitable. Pull the plug, get it done, rebuild.
One of the risks for Labour is that the leadership looks like a hospital pass, and some likely candidates might decide they're better off as a Mayor than trying to lead the national party.
His bumbling when he is allowed on tv.
2. You mean like the State of the Union? Or perhaps you & I didn't see the same address on our TVs?
Your "evidence" is weaker than Prince Andrew's televised rebuttal.
Labour have to do two things: (i) wait for the Conservatives to either actually or apparently mess up (or for something largely beyond their control to happen on their watch - Covid could have been it, had the vaccine strategy been messed up - e.g. if we'd been behind the EU) and (ii) make themselves a reasonable choice when that happens.
For (ii) Starmer being "not Corbyn" may actually be pretty much enough. He's dull, but there's little to actively dislike, not unlike Cameron. Some actual policies that speak to the masses would help too. Another Blair would, of course, help, but there were probably many centrist, non-scary Labour politicians who could have won in 1997. You don't have to be good to win - May won in 2017, afterall!
The other option, would be an amicable split, into an old-style northern Labour and a southern (and cities) metropolitan liberal elite party, with a non-agression pact and plans for coalition. But that won't happen amicably, because both sides believe they are 'real' Labour and would only accept the other side leaving to form a new party, not them. An acrimonius split would be a disaster.
The issue will be if Boris somehow forces their hand I.e gives them a window to seek a section 30
LDem: 43.1% (+9.4)
Con: 39.2% (+1.1)
Lab: 10.0% (-0.5)
Grn: 7.6% (+4.2)
LDem GAIN from Con
https://twitter.com/Motorsport/status/1390339237527105540
So far, this season is seeking to balance the last when it comes to fortune's favour.
There are already a number of ways in which the government officially rates countries - part of the immigration process, for example.
https://twitter.com/skywatcherintel/status/1390571375807565830
Kier Starmer seeing the result from the local elections this morning
Who was at the forefront of the "People's Vote" strategy within the PLP? Starmer. A Starmer leadership was never going to work in Hartlepool and places like it...
People who keep going on about an imminent 'roaring twenties' after the lockdown ends sometimes forget what happened thereafter.
Sandhill (Sunderland) council result:
LDem: 50.8% (+46.8)
Lab: 32.4% (-22.1)
Con: 12.7% (+0.5)
UKIP: 2.6% (-23.0)
Oth: 1.5% (+0.5)
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1390584767473758209?s=20
Progress could do rather well if they can hoover up the dispossessed voters currently sat in the Johnson Blue Labour coalition. I can see the
redblue wall staying blue, but the shire towns going red.Don't get hung up by the colours. Post Brexit we now identify the parties with the same colours as they do in America.
And do you still think Johnson played a blinder over Barnard castle!
Have had that problem myself. Just NOT in Portugal, and NOT while driving.
Day 1 of local election results likely to be dominated by Hartlepool. Days 2+ by national elections in Scotland and Wales. But there’s evidence of the stirrings of a wider Green movement as a better/revived vehicle for progressive politics over the next 20 yrs vs Labour
All getting a bit out of control. Surely Casino makes the relevant point - Nobody at that point in time thought Labour were going to win, but at 23s it is a matter of opinion as to whether it is worth a punt. There is surely a price for everything? Isn't that what this site is about. Mike often makes the point that he doesn't expect his longshots to win, but the odds are still in his favour.
You are slagging each other off on the subjective point as to when it was worth backing Labour.
And evidence that Labour's problem isn't just that the PM and the vaccine programme are popular. Given the LibDem national poll ratings it takes discontent with Labour to enable a win like that, however much local campaigning you do.
The winner of the Champions League and Europa League only matters if they have NOT qualified by virtue of being in the Top 4. Both Manchester clubs will be in the Top 4 so it's moot for them.
If Chelsea finish outside the Top 4 but with the Champions League then they get qualification. Same if Arsenal had won Europa. If only one qualification comes this way then England gets 4 clubs.
In the unlikely event that both the CL and the EL are won by not-Top 4 clubs then England are capped to 5 clubs, so it becomes Top 3 and CL and EL winners, with 4th missing out. Since Arsenal were eliminated that's now impossible this season.
As he's bumbled on TV all his life.
Not much in the way of evidence for his impending demise.
IMO It needs the voting (and membership) balances to change so that the Tory establishment takes notice, and is genuinely open to change in a way that chinless panjandrums in the SE won't prevent.
And I'd say that Lab need a similar process of some sort.
Both imo would be good things, with wider coalitions.
But your point is extremely well made.
The 'northern' bit could use the name and infrastructure that already exists of the Co-operative party.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/01/kamala-harris-space-council-485183
This turned out to be the winning move of WWI.
Sure would be interesting to find out what the deal really was there.
https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/politics/meet-the-candidates-for-the-sandhill-ward-on-sunderland-city-council-for-election-on-may-6-3220150
FT : "Bank of England forecasts fastest UK growth rate in over 70 years
Higher estimate all but eliminates the possibility that central bank will set a negative interest rate this year"
Good luck with that.
Not dumping the Space Council, again, is a good move.
We are living in extraordinary times. We are in the middle of a pandemic. That could have easily meant that things could have gone badly for the government electorally, but they haven't. The vaccine has definitely saved the day for Johnson's Conservatives. Whoever advised the procurement programme has saved Johnson's bacon, and despite my dislike of him he deserves credit for taking the risk of authorising it.
Voters have short memories though. As Wilson is said to have said, a week is a long time in politics, and Macmillan said "events". Johnson has a huge amount of chinks in his armour. The hope for Labour supporters is that those become magnified over time in office, and that they can put together a programme that at least inspires enough people to vote for them at a GE. For me, I voted for them for the first time in my life yesterday. They would need to do a lot of convincing for me to vote for them at a GE.
Handwringing doesn't win many votes - as SKS is finding out.
2 I think is more nuanced - because of the vagaries of FPTP. If there is a clear demand for indyref2 then that needs to be carefully considered - after all the union requires consent.
Equally it's not a given that it should be granted. For example a bare majority of 1 MSP based on a minority of the vote probably is not sufficient, but a 66% vote on the constituency+list vote combined clearly is. The break point is somewhere in between.
Finally it is reasonable that the Section 30 comes with conditions - e.g. no more referendums for a defined period, etc. Non indy supporters have a right to a stable settlement and shouldn't face turmoil every 4 years just because of a minority of malcontents
I think you need to go away and reflect on what happened, why it happened and what Labour may or may not be able to do about it.
Until you have you'll forgive us for taking little or no notice of what you consider is going to happen next or what you consider to be "value".
beasts to come back into / come into Parliamentary politics.
Sadiq Khan
Andy Burnham
Steve Rotheram (is he clear of the Liverpool black hole in the accounts?)
Jamie Driscoll
Dan Jarvis
(I note that of all current Metro Mayors are 9 out of 9 men. With one TBC for @Casino_Royale !)
Is there any talent in the likes of normal Mayors elsewhere - Peter Soulsby in Leicester and so on?
Lincoln's call for volunteers did propel the Upper South states of Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina and (most significantly) Virginia to abandon neutrality and join with the Deep South in the Confederacy. But Lincoln (I think) had already calculated on that happening anyway, once the shooting started.
However, Lincoln's initial restraint helped enable him to keep the slave Border States of Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri in the Union. (Delaware was never in question.) Not just restraint; he used armed force to keep the lid on in Maryland and Missouri.
As for Kentucky, economically tied to the North but culturally linked to the South, and hence deeply divided (two of his own brothers-in-law ended up serving in the Confederate Army) Lincoln again played a winning waiting game. By NOT challenging Kentucky's declared neutrality, but instead holding off - until the Confederates invaded the Blue Grass State, which tipped the balance toward the Union.
Retention of the Border was just as strategically significant - indeed decisive in the long run - as rallying the North.
Would make 2019 look like a good result for Labour.
I am not expecting the results up here to be narrow as you suggest. I voted LibDem / LibDem so I don't want an SNP / Green / Alba tidal wave but I think we're about to get it. If thats the democratic will of the people as expressed via the established system of democracy then it is either carried out or it is not a democracy.
England can choose to say no to another referendum. But will lose the very thing it claims to stand for - the United Kingdom.
This week we continue to see low levels of cases again which, according to Tim, indicate COVID-19 is becoming endemic in the UK. Unlike a pandemic affecting diverse populations around the world, endemic refers to a situation where the virus is found regularly among particular pockets of the population. In short, COVID-19 is here to stay but at low levels with minor outbreaks from time to time.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/07/humiliation-hartlepool-smalltown-detective-di-starmer
"Wherever he campaigned during this local elections run, Starmer looked like the classic smalltown detective battling his demons, who’s been transferred there from somewhere else in circumstances he doesn’t like to talk about. I quite like Angela Rayner as his earthy, big-hearted local DS, but she doesn’t seem to get any screentime. You get the feeling that DI Starmer is still haunted by the case of a drowned socialite he failed to solve 15 years ago. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, was shagging the socialite and probably accidentally drove the car off a pier then left her to die. And at some level, an aspirational public respects the work."
I recognised the temptation and resisted it.
Ah, but look back a step and ask yourself why Greek myth is so rich in stories of hubris and nemesis. It's precisely because of their real-life tendency to enjoy victory to the full and not give a damn about its eventual reversal. And that's one Hellenic custom I fully intend to honour.
And what about Barnard Castle? Tory polling recovered just fine and Boris continues to dominate the political scene. More particularly, it was the first, vital step in teaching the media that their opinions don't get to dictate what happens in this country any longer. Wallpapergate will be the second.
https://twitter.com/tristangrayedi/status/1390448785168510980
I'd worried about SNP candidates winning and then jumping to Alba. She is absolute prime candidate number 1. However Unionist tactical voting will keep her out.
Many Labour MPs put all the blame for their 2019 defeat on Jeremy Corbyn. He was certainly a big factor but this narrative obscures the huge underlying challenges Labour faces. It is in a tougher situation today than the mid 1980s THREAD 1/n
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1390549774986788864?s=20
The media and judiciary are important balances in a free society on an overly powerful executive, particularly when the legislature has become supine. If the Conservatives have become as complacent as you appear to represent there will most certainly be a day of reckoning for the populists at some time in the future. The drip drip effect of media stories will either cause sensible heads within the Conservatives to address their weaknesses and reform internally (which would be a good thing), or eventually the electorate will turn them out.
Plebs like plebs. And they love and defer to the colourful powerful rich. What they hate are middle class professional types. Hence why the talk of being driven by "aspiration" is the most utter horseshit.
#emoting
BoZo is a clown. People like clowns.
In particular, Little Englanders voting for a Little Englander populist is not a surprise.
The results from Scotland might be more interesting, despite the fact that BoZo was explicitly excluded from the Scottish Tory campaign.
Hidden, in fact...
In trying to hold both the metro elite and the working class Labour vote together SKS has an impossible task: you can't take the knee wrapped in the Union flag and please both constituencies; you end up alienating both of them. He needs to choose, as Casino mentioned upthread.
Despite people on the left of centre deriding the "culture war" as non-existent, to me it is very real. I was amazed by last evening's discussion on here that so many people had never experienced the impact of wokeness as work. I work for a large US (East Coast) global corporation and our senior management and HR are obsessed by it - our cooperate intranet is like the BBC home page with article after article on E, D & I. Maybe smaller UK firms have yet to be afflicted by it but if anyone has access to the CIPD magazine you will get an idea what is coming in terms of UK HR - the CIPD has bought into the woke agenda hook, line and sinker.
This stuff is not going away. The people of Hartlepool may not be exposed to it in the workplace (yet) but they can see the way it is affecting popular culture and they don't like it.
For now, the Conservatives have parked their tanks on Labour's lawn when it comes to government spending and Boris is seen as standing up for traditional British values. Labour's only response to government spending is to spend more, which lacks credibility, and it appears to be actively against traditional British values.
So what does Labour do? Is the plan to sit and wait for the Tories to implode (most likely when the COVID spending chickens come home to roost), keep the fragile coalition together and hope that by that time demographics have worked in its favour? It might work but it doesn't really address the fundamental issue of where it stands on the British values question.
Blair won for a reason; when the time came, mainstream Britain was not repelled by Labour. It is now.