This mornings polls on Hartlepool and the Mayoral elections seem somewhat unexpected in view of the recent narrowing of the polls
However, in those polls closing the lead they all still gave Boris a commanding lead over Starmer on best pm, best on the economy, and best in dealing with covid
While they seem to have been taken around the time the lead was beginning to fall they were taken when postal votes were being submitted
It was interesting to see Survation giving no a 6 point lead in indyref2 53/47
Anyway only a few more days to wait, and as a matter of interest does anyone know when Hartlepool is likely to declare
They are validating the ballots for the by-election, mayoral, PCC and council. Then counting the by-election. So well past 3am...
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I always carry a wooden kitchen spatula to push leaflets through difficult letterboxes.
This is the most useful tip you'll ever get from me.
Thought for day: walk a mile in Hartlepool's shoes. Think about neglect & decline and their effects. Consider that dutifully voting Labour didn't change anything fundamental; that Labour, for some, feels too remote, & pious with it; that politics is always, you know, complicated.
"Child poverty fell by 13% in the North East between 1999 and 2013. Between 2013 and 2019 it rose by 9%, three times faster than the national average, and it is still rising."
Banging on about child poverty or rough sleepers or food banks or bedroom taxes doesn't help Labour.
Its not the 10% at the bottom or the 10% at the top who decide elections.
But the 80% in the middle.
I could not agree more.
Sadly I agree as well. This why the bottom 20% of the USA will never have adequate medical cover, because the upper 80% are the voters who turn out and in the main they are happy with the situation. It's not difficult for the Tories to appeal to 40% of the electrorate, especially when about 40% don't give a toss about the rest, or honourable goverment.
This mornings polls on Hartlepool and the Mayoral elections seem somewhat unexpected in view of the recent narrowing of the polls
However, in those polls closing the lead they all still gave Boris a commanding lead over Starmer on best pm, best on the economy, and best in dealing with covid
While they seem to have been taken around the time the lead was beginning to fall they were taken when postal votes were being submitted
It was interesting to see Survation giving no a 6 point lead in indyref2 53/47
Anyway only a few more days to wait, and as a matter of interest does anyone know when Hartlepool is likely to declare
They are validating the ballots for the by-election, mayoral, PCC and council. Then counting the by-election. So well past 3am...
And Hartlepool and the English locals will mean a lot less than the English locals or the London mayor that happen on the same day - the former is a much wider poll, and the latter has some executive powers.
If Hartlepool does go tory on Thursday as I and a number of others on here think then you really cannot just airily dismiss it like that.
It's emblematic of what happened in the biggest national poll of the lot: the 2019 General Election.
If you, but more importantly Labour, don't get this then there is no way they are returning to power anytime soon.
I'm not even sure that sleaze would finish the tories. It was Black Wednesday which did for them in 1992-7 more than the sleaze.
We witnessed a generational seismic political shift in 2019, the seeds of which were sown over several previous years. It ain't shifting back in a hurry.
Some people naïvely assume that 2019 was a rejection of Corbyn and getting Brexit done and now that Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone it will return back to the natural state of things.
That's the same naivety that saw Tories in 1998 saying that they were the natural party of government and people would see through Blair soon enough.
Labour need their Cameron and Osborne prepared to reform the party. That's not Keir.
The one thing that Starmer is doing very effectively is reforming the party. The far-left is losing control at constituency, regional and national level. That in and of itself does not win you votes, though - especially at a time when so many of the political fundamentals are in the government's favour.
Internal power dynamics replacing Corbynistas on the NEC etc is a 'necessary but not sufficient condition' for reform. Nobody in Hartlepool is voting based upon who sits in an NEC.
How policy, voice, image or tone wise is Labour credibly being reformed in the way that Blair or Cameron & Osborne did?
I think this is where lockdown has really harmed Starmer. You cannot do what Cameron did from your front room.
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Burnham wasn't very impressive then though, at least from my perspective. It was probably too early for him. He's certainly improved using the GM Mayor platform.
Isn't he the guy who wears eye make up.? I always thought it made him look foolish.
Excellent piece. It brought memories of the heady early days of the SDP in particular where by elections were so crucial to getting attention between elections (where we were thrashed). The recent death of Shirley Williams had already had me thinking quite a lot about that time when a political party that was serious and realistic about economics but also focused on making a difference for those less advantaged seemed within reach.
Alas, it was not to be and the closest we ever got, in my estimation, was the Coalition government of Cameron and Clegg. That got me interested in politics again after a fairly extended period of disillusionment. The last decade has certainly been eventful. I rather hope, despite the lack of betting opportunities that would arise that the next decade is less so.
We? Were you an SDPer?
I had you down as a liberal Tory like myself.
I always felt that Social Democrats and Liberals could and can work well together, as they did. OK liberals are far more radical than Social Democrats who are far more pragmatic, but as Social Democrats do believe in a free economy and not state control generally as an overwhelming principle we got on ok and even as a liberal I do believe in state intervention where appropriate eg education, health, state pension, protection of the disadvantaged etc.
The amusing thing is that while people want the left and liberals to get along, Clegg and Cameron was no an abberration, liberals and free market liberals (Tories) get along just fine and have done time and again through the years.
Liberals tend to have a bigger overlap of desired outcomes with the left but of preferred means with the right. I have always found Labour councillors the harder to deal with, because their mindset in terms of how they go about things is so starkly different from mine.
A very good point that I think answers Philip's also good post.
I also think the coalitions within parties make this difficult, probably caused by FPTP. Labour is made up of Social Democrats and Socialists. The means to an end of Socialism is an anathema to a Liberal. Similarly Conservatives, as I know Philip will acknowledge, is not just made up a free market liberals and the social conservatives in this group is a challenge for liberals, because not only do we disagree with the end results, but also the means of getting there which is no different from Socialism i.e state control.
Cameron and Clegg came in the free market liberal category.
And Hartlepool and the English locals will mean a lot less than the English locals or the London mayor that happen on the same day - the former is a much wider poll, and the latter has some executive powers.
If Hartlepool does go tory on Thursday as I and a number of others on here think then you really cannot just airily dismiss it like that.
But if it stays Labour, it doesn't mean their problems in the Red Wall are solved, does it?
As I understand it, the local Labour Party has been overruled in its choice of candidate and is feuding. This could be important in the result, but says nothing about the national picture compared to the English locals that day.
I was amazed that Labour would choose an avid pro EU candidate
Who got his arse handed to him by the electorate down the road less than two years ago.
And Hartlepool and the English locals will mean a lot less than the English locals or the London mayor that happen on the same day - the former is a much wider poll, and the latter has some executive powers.
If Hartlepool does go tory on Thursday as I and a number of others on here think then you really cannot just airily dismiss it like that.
But if it stays Labour, it doesn't mean their problems in the Red Wall are solved, does it?
As I understand it, the local Labour Party has been overruled in its choice of candidate and is feuding. This could be important in the result, but says nothing about the national picture compared to the English locals that day.
I was amazed that Labour would choose an avid pro EU candidate
Labour didn't choose him. Starmer imposed him. Think about that when questioning how politically tone deaf the man is.
And Hartlepool and the English locals will mean a lot less than the English locals or the London mayor that happen on the same day - the former is a much wider poll, and the latter has some executive powers.
If Hartlepool does go tory on Thursday as I and a number of others on here think then you really cannot just airily dismiss it like that.
But if it stays Labour, it doesn't mean their problems in the Red Wall are solved, does it?
As I understand it, the local Labour Party has been overruled in its choice of candidate and is feuding. This could be important in the result, but says nothing about the national picture compared to the English locals that day.
I was amazed that Labour would choose an avid pro EU candidate
Labour didn't choose him. Starmer imposed him. Think about that when questioning how politically tone deaf the man is.
Having 60,000 fans in every day for the test in Ahmedabad looks like a sick joke.
Should never have been allowed to start, yet another example of why India is going to keep struggling. My Indian colleagues don’t have many good words for the authorities there.
My friends in red have already messaged me about the Pools poll. "exactly as we said a month ago. Tories would have taken the seat in 2019 had Brexit not split their vote. The lion share of their vote is going Tory".
What is truly sad is that Labour on Teesside are about to get smashed in the by-election, the mayoral and the PCC elections. And yet so many of my former colleagues - all sensible centre-left - will still fail to see that THEY are the problem.
For too many long-standing Labour activists in the region, they see their right to be in power as absolute. The Tories destroyed industry and the Tories will get the blame. Except that the economy has changed, people have changed and that just isn't true any more.
Nailed it.
The surprising thing is that the Conservatives got the blame for the decline in heavy industry which happened across the developed world from 1970 for so long. It didn't hang around the necks of governing parties in, say, France and America decades later.
It's not what you do, it's the way that you do it...
I think that might be part of it. But it is still striking that manufacturing output rose by 20% under the Thatcher/Major government, but fell by 10% under the Blair/Brown government, yet the former were blamed, while the latter got a free pass.
Another factor may be that industry was hugely inefficient in the late 1970s, and the elimination of overmanning during the 1980s as modern processes were introduced, caused a reduction in manufacturing employment. People noticed this more than the increased total production.
Labour in England is going the way of Labour in Scotland.
Discuss.
Because it’s the last Unionist party in the UK? Add your own ‘turn out the lights’ joke.
Both the main parties in England and Wales are Unionist, the SNP could well lose seats on Thursday and SLab are up under Sarwar from where they wee under Leonard
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There's one house in our village with these two big barking bastards. They have a big garden and as they are on the end of a street it extends front side and back.
Said big barking bastards gnash and snarl at you all the way round their garden. After a few minutes the lady of the house comes out to see what the fuss is about. Doesn't shut them up you understands, just stands there arms folded looking like Mutha off Biffa Bacon.
And Hartlepool and the English locals will mean a lot less than the English locals or the London mayor that happen on the same day - the former is a much wider poll, and the latter has some executive powers.
If Hartlepool does go tory on Thursday as I and a number of others on here think then you really cannot just airily dismiss it like that.
But if it stays Labour, it doesn't mean their problems in the Red Wall are solved, does it?
As I understand it, the local Labour Party has been overruled in its choice of candidate and is feuding. This could be important in the result, but says nothing about the national picture compared to the English locals that day.
I was amazed that Labour would choose an avid pro EU candidate
Labour didn't choose him. Starmer imposed him. Think about that when questioning how politically tone deaf the man is.
What was he thinking - indeed was he thinking
It doesn't really matter. Like I said earlier, I think Labour could have picked Nigel Farage as their candidate and still lost.
This mornings polls on Hartlepool and the Mayoral elections seem somewhat unexpected in view of the recent narrowing of the polls
However, in those polls closing the lead they all still gave Boris a commanding lead over Starmer on best pm, best on the economy, and best in dealing with covid
While they seem to have been taken around the time the lead was beginning to fall they were taken when postal votes were being submitted
It was interesting to see Survation giving no a 6 point lead in indyref2 53/47
Anyway only a few more days to wait, and as a matter of interest does anyone know when Hartlepool is likely to declare
They are validating the ballots for the by-election, mayoral, PCC and council. Then counting the by-election. So well past 3am...
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
Indeed, Labour are more likely to win Kensington, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Wycombe and Watford at the next general election now than they are to win West Bromwich West, Great Grimsby or Sedgefield or Mansfield
A lot of far-reaching conclusions being drawn on the back of one constituency poll conducted a week ago and ignoring a number of more recent national polls indicating that the gap between the two main parties may actually be a lot closer.
I have always thought that the Tories would win in Hartlepool and do well on Thursday because the fundamentals are hugely in their favour:
* A great vaccine programme * Lockdown easing * Economic optimism soaring * House prices rising * The furlough and the triple lock protecting incomes
Labour has a huge mountain to climb. Tory hubris may just make the task a little bit easier.
That's spot on. The only thing I'd add to your list of fundamental is the large Brexit vote in Hartlepool, most of which was always going to go to the 'Brexit done' party. Labourites like me fully expected to lose Hartlepool comfortably; it really won't be a surprise. I also expected poor results across the nation(s) this week, though recent polls suggest they may be slightly less bad than I feared.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
“Labour now is rich people telling poor people that other rich people are their problem.”
Labour simply doesn't stand for the common working man anymore.
In fact, they rather detest him.
There's millions of the "common working man" in London and other major cities and a good chunk of them vote Labour.
You're intelligent, bright, smart and a good thinker.
So, when are you going to smell the coffee?
I'm not sure what point you're making?
What does the "common working man" even mean? Are you denying that the common working man doesn't exist in major cities?
There's no denying that Labour is seen as not being in touch with vast swathes of the population, especially in poorer places like Hartlepool. And yet Labour still pulls in 35%+ of the vote nationwide, not that much less than the Conservative Party. It just happens to be really inefficient at present.
The sad thing is as I’ve said many times, Starmer was the best Labour had.
I'm not so sure.
Starmer was an arch Remainer and the fact is that Labour's Red Wall aren't. They are Brexiteers and that doesn't mean just about Brexit. It's a generational seismic shift that encompasses British patriotism and an anti-woke agenda. Starmer is a million miles away from these people. However much he tries to big up his south London tough background, which might be true, he's a metropolitan barrister.
He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner.
I don't honestly know how Labour come back, I really don't. They are caught on the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand there's the mainly southern pro-European pro-Remain anti-Brexit internationalist metropolitans with their heartland in Labour London.
On the other there's their old core vote, the red wall, which has little or nothing in common with the aforementioned.
Brexit brought those two factions to a head. Starmer in the end tried to bridge the gap with a risible fudge.
What I would state is (I think) this. Whereas if Labour had a northerner leader who spoke the Red Wall language they would not lose their London core, the opposite is not true. Having a metropolitan Remainer as leader means they will continue to lose their Red Wall.
Jess Phillips is a Brummy not a Northerner either, but is regarded as one by the Metropolitan Londoners who perceive anything outside of the M25 as the Here Be Dragons North. She would have made a far better leader than Keir, and the fact she was so unacceptable to the Metropolitan London membership to even be considered shows what is wrong with Labour.
Load of utter nonsense.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
A lot of far-reaching conclusions being drawn on the back of one constituency poll conducted a week ago and ignoring a number of more recent national polls indicating that the gap between the two main parties may actually be a lot closer.
I have always thought that the Tories would win in Hartlepool and do well on Thursday because the fundamentals are hugely in their favour:
* A great vaccine programme * Lockdown easing * Economic optimism soaring * House prices rising * The furlough and the triple lock protecting incomes
Labour has a huge mountain to climb. Tory hubris may just make the task a little bit easier.
That's spot on. The only thing I'd add to your list of fundamental is the large Brexit vote in Hartlepool, most of which was always going to go to the 'Brexit done' party. Labourites like me fully expected to lose Hartlepool comfortably; it really won't be a surprise. I also expected poor results across the nation(s) this week, though recent polls suggest they may be slightly less bad than I feared.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
The same question could be asked of labour in so far as can it find new ways to regenerate popularity by the next election
And do not assume labour in England could not go the same way as labour in Scotland
Change is an ever constant, and unless you can adapt and improve you become irrelevant
“Labour now is rich people telling poor people that other rich people are their problem.”
Labour simply doesn't stand for the common working man anymore.
In fact, they rather detest him.
There's millions of the "common working man" in London and other major cities and a good chunk of them vote Labour.
You're intelligent, bright, smart and a good thinker.
So, when are you going to smell the coffee?
I'm not sure what point you're making?
What does the "common working man" even mean? Are you denying that the common working man doesn't exist in major cities?
There's no denying that Labour is seen as not being in touch with vast swathes of the population, especially in poorer places like Hartlepool. And yet Labour still pulls in 35%+ of the vote nationwide, not that much less than the Conservative Party. It just happens to be really inefficient at present.
Further, you know full well that I don't deny that Labour are not in a good place generally and you know full well that I don't approve of the Corbynista fringe. So I smell the coffee, I just dispute the lazy analysis that the "working man" no longer votes Labour.
Labour in England is going the way of Labour in Scotland.
Discuss.
Because it’s the last Unionist party in the UK? Add your own ‘turn out the lights’ joke.
E not quite the same as S. Labour have almost no seats in S but loads in E - focussed almost entirely in very urban, very BAME and very educated seats. So it is hard to reinvent themselves in E as they have a diverse and incompatible support base. Also in S they have a leftish opponent in the SNP. In E they have to pretend the Tories are right wing when they are centrist - very like old Labour.
“Labour now is rich people telling poor people that other rich people are their problem.”
Labour simply doesn't stand for the common working man anymore.
In fact, they rather detest him.
There's millions of the "common working man" in London and other major cities and a good chunk of them vote Labour.
You're intelligent, bright, smart and a good thinker.
So, when are you going to smell the coffee?
I'm not sure what point you're making?
What does the "common working man" even mean? Are you denying that the common working man doesn't exist in major cities?
There's no denying that Labour is seen as not being in touch with vast swathes of the population, especially in poorer places like Hartlepool. And yet Labour still pulls in 35%+ of the vote nationwide, not that much less than the Conservative Party. It just happens to be really inefficient at present.
Labour got just over 32% of the vote at the last election. And the Conservatives score similar from GE97-05. It's core vote stuff.
Labour is seen as being establishment, elitist, and obsessed with minority causes that are of no interest to the average working man. Indeed, some Labour politicians (far from all, I hasten to add) mock them and suggest they are guilty of things like 'patriarchy' and 'white privilege'.
Unless and until that changes (and there's an obvious strategy for Labour here) they will stay out of office indefinitely.
A lot of far-reaching conclusions being drawn on the back of one constituency poll conducted a week ago and ignoring a number of more recent national polls indicating that the gap between the two main parties may actually be a lot closer.
I have always thought that the Tories would win in Hartlepool and do well on Thursday because the fundamentals are hugely in their favour:
* A great vaccine programme * Lockdown easing * Economic optimism soaring * House prices rising * The furlough and the triple lock protecting incomes
Labour has a huge mountain to climb. Tory hubris may just make the task a little bit easier.
That's spot on. The only thing I'd add to your list of fundamental is the large Brexit vote in Hartlepool, most of which was always going to go to the 'Brexit done' party. Labourites like me fully expected to lose Hartlepool comfortably; it really won't be a surprise. I also expected poor results across the nation(s) this week, though recent polls suggest they may be slightly less bad than I feared.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
The same question could be asked of labour in so far as can it find new ways to regenerate popularity by the next election
And do not assume labour in England could not go the same way as labour in Scotland
Change is an ever constant, and unless you can adapt and improve you become irrelevant
In some ways it would be a very good thing if Labour went the way of Scottish Labour and a new opposition party emerged, at least from my perspective.
If the Conservatives win Hartlepool on Thursday, it'll be thanks to two Bs: Boris Johnson and Ben Houchen. The PM remains popular in the red wall, but the Tees Valley mayor shows how the Tories hold onto Labour's old heartlands.
A lot of far-reaching conclusions being drawn on the back of one constituency poll conducted a week ago and ignoring a number of more recent national polls indicating that the gap between the two main parties may actually be a lot closer.
I have always thought that the Tories would win in Hartlepool and do well on Thursday because the fundamentals are hugely in their favour:
* A great vaccine programme * Lockdown easing * Economic optimism soaring * House prices rising * The furlough and the triple lock protecting incomes
Labour has a huge mountain to climb. Tory hubris may just make the task a little bit easier.
That's spot on. The only thing I'd add to your list of fundamental is the large Brexit vote in Hartlepool, most of which was always going to go to the 'Brexit done' party. Labourites like me fully expected to lose Hartlepool comfortably; it really won't be a surprise. I also expected poor results across the nation(s) this week, though recent polls suggest they may be slightly less bad than I feared.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
The same question could be asked of labour in so far as can it find new ways to regenerate popularity by the next election
And do not assume labour in England could not go the same way as labour in Scotland
Change is an ever constant, and unless you can adapt and improve you become irrelevant
A curious response - I haven't assumed anything in what I wrote. Labour could die, or it could flourish. And as for change being an ever constant -??
“Labour now is rich people telling poor people that other rich people are their problem.”
Labour simply doesn't stand for the common working man anymore.
In fact, they rather detest him.
There's millions of the "common working man" in London and other major cities and a good chunk of them vote Labour.
You're intelligent, bright, smart and a good thinker.
So, when are you going to smell the coffee?
I'm not sure what point you're making?
What does the "common working man" even mean? Are you denying that the common working man doesn't exist in major cities?
There's no denying that Labour is seen as not being in touch with vast swathes of the population, especially in poorer places like Hartlepool. And yet Labour still pulls in 35%+ of the vote nationwide, not that much less than the Conservative Party. It just happens to be really inefficient at present.
Further, you know full well that I don't deny that Labour are not in a good place generally and you know full well that I don't approve of the Corbynista fringe. So I smell the coffee, I just dispute the lazy analysis that the "working man" no longer votes Labour.
The working man also exists in the cities.
If you smelled the coffee (I think you are just getting a distant whiff) you wouldn't try and explain it away by things like 35%+ is still quite good, and vote inefficiency.
The working class leads for the Tories now are absolutely massive. There are some fundamental issues here. Think about it - there are strategies for a good clever centre-left party to win outright.
If you, but more importantly Labour, don't get this then there is no way they are returning to power anytime soon.
This is lazy analysis. Just because there's been some big political shifts in one area doesn't mean they cant be some in another.
If the Tories win Hartlepool by the amount suggested and IF (big if) the national polling is actually in the region of a 2% lead, rather than 10%, that suggests some big swings to Labour elsewhere...
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There are so many stories though aren't there:
a) I decide against canvassing a house in the Winchester by election that the firemen were putting out. I suspect the election wasn't high up on the list of their priorities at that moment.
b) I heard a story of a Tory canvasser who lent against a garden wall while waiting for the door to open and it collapsed. He did a runner, but fortunately wasn't on the ball enough to put a LD leaflet through the door before he did so. missed a trick there.
That unherd piece by Tanya Gold is absolutely brilliant. It says what I was stating only much better.
I urge everyone, everyone, on here who thinks Brexit is done and dusted or who thinks the 2019 result was an aberration or who thinks Starmer is the answer or who doesn't believe that the Red Wall shift was for real or who ever bets on British politics to read this. Adjust your sights accordingly.
If you, but more importantly Labour, don't get this then there is no way they are returning to power anytime soon.
This is lazy analysis. Just because there's been some big political shifts in one area doesn't mean they cant be some in another.
If the Tories win Hartlepool by the amount suggested and IF (big if) the national polling is actually in the region of a 2% lead, rather than 10%, that suggests some big swings to Labour elsewhere...
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
Does make me wonder where mayoralties rank, prestige wise.
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
The problem Labour has, is there are not nearly enough Southern seats to counter those lost in the Red Wall. Anyone run the numbers on that, isn't it something like they need to win JRM's seat to undo the Red Wall
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
I struggle to understand anyone supporting the Conservatives from 1997-2010, now supporting left wing parties, but you are right, it is a real phenomenon. Brexit is obviously part of the story, but only part of it.
A lot of far-reaching conclusions being drawn on the back of one constituency poll conducted a week ago and ignoring a number of more recent national polls indicating that the gap between the two main parties may actually be a lot closer.
I have always thought that the Tories would win in Hartlepool and do well on Thursday because the fundamentals are hugely in their favour:
* A great vaccine programme * Lockdown easing * Economic optimism soaring * House prices rising * The furlough and the triple lock protecting incomes
Labour has a huge mountain to climb. Tory hubris may just make the task a little bit easier.
That's spot on. The only thing I'd add to your list of fundamental is the large Brexit vote in Hartlepool, most of which was always going to go to the 'Brexit done' party. Labourites like me fully expected to lose Hartlepool comfortably; it really won't be a surprise. I also expected poor results across the nation(s) this week, though recent polls suggest they may be slightly less bad than I feared.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
The same question could be asked of labour in so far as can it find new ways to regenerate popularity by the next election
And do not assume labour in England could not go the same way as labour in Scotland
Change is an ever constant, and unless you can adapt and improve you become irrelevant
A curious response - I haven't assumed anything in what I wrote. Labour could die, or it could flourish. And as for change being an ever constant -??
I didn't mean to be critical as I largely agree with your comments, but it is true that the conservative party constantly adapts to change and regenerates itself, not least Boris's party v May's .
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
Does make me wonder where mayoralties rank, prestige wise.
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
I wonder if they go back to Commons they'll suffer from Archie Norman syndrome.
From Chief Executive of Asda to backbench (opposition) MP was too much of a drop for him.
No wonder he quit as an MP after two terms in Parliament.
This is the most fascinating thing about Hartlepool - that mid-term, after 11 tough years in office, under three leaders, the Tories are plausibly running as the insurgent “change” candidate. Reflects Johnson’s success in forging a new party in a way eg Brown could not.
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There's one house in our village with these two big barking bastards. They have a big garden and as they are on the end of a street it extends front side and back.
Said big barking bastards gnash and snarl at you all the way round their garden. After a few minutes the lady of the house comes out to see what the fuss is about. Doesn't shut them up you understands, just stands there arms folded looking like Mutha off Biffa Bacon.
I'd love to have *that* as a neighbour.
Here is a useful car insurance tip having been bitten by a dog while delivering:
I considered myself an expert re the perils of dogs and letterboxes, but a lack of concentration and a silent dog got me. He had my finger the other side of the letterbox and the only way I could escape was to pull my hand out which ripped my finger open to the bone on the top segment.
The hospital was only 1 mile away and I thought I could drive, but couldn't, so the person I was delivering with drove my car. As a consequence the cover now was third party only. I was concerned about this afterwards and asked the insurance company what would have happened if we have had an accident. Tough was the answer. You should have called an ambulance. That response annoyed me as calling an ambulance I considered irresponsible. I just needed stiches, I wasn't at death's door.
I changed to Saga who offer this cover in the case of emergencies. In an emergency a third party can dive my car and my car will still be covered fully comp under my insurance.
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
He has more power as West Midlands Mayor than he would do as an MP, unless he was assured a big Cabinet post early on
I would have thought the obvious thing would be Minister for levelling up or whatever title that they can give combining Osborne's Northern powerhouse with some real infrastructure spending across the red wall seats, sorry, the needy north.
David Amess tweet an absolute cry about nothing from Twitter. Anyone familiar with Croydon will realise the councillors don’t bother engaging with the electorate let alone the MPs. Southend has nothing to worry about.
Although it’s mostly Twitter nonsense given he has a radio show and small media profile it’s worth saying Labour need to muzzle their shockjock supporter James O’Brien. Even this morning he’s blaming the voters of Hartlepool and banging on about Brexit. The voters will themselves struggle to move on from Brexit when the commentators aren’t done with it. I sense Starmer is trying look forwards but his biggest cheerleaders have failed to get the memo.
Not a very market-y approach, Brom.
JO'B has a job because he commands some kind of audience. If he wasn't popular he would be booted out. LBC isn't the BBC, you know.
JO'B is one of the few radio presenters I just cannot bear to listen to. I don't mind that he has a different viewpoint to me but he is constantly being rude to people and belittling them. Contrast with someone like Shelagh Fogarty who I suspect has a similar outlook but doesn't take that approach.
Even Nigel Farage when he was on LBC encouraged callers with different viewpoints to call in and engaged positively with them. I don't remember him ever belittling anyone.
JO'B needs to learn some manners. However his audience I'm sure tunes in to listen to him belittling Brexiteers via the power of the "mute" button.
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
Does make me wonder where mayoralties rank, prestige wise.
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
I wonder if they go back to Commons they'll suffer from Archie Norman syndrome.
From Chief Executive of Asda to backbench (opposition) MP was too much of a drop for him.
No wonder he quit as an MP after two terms in Parliament.
Archie Norman was my MP when I was in the local CF in Tunbridge Wells, he was an OK local MP but really going from being a FTSE 100 CEO to backbench MP was not really in his gameplan, he entered politics to be in the Cabinet at least.
He was also a big supporter of Michael Portillo in 2001 and when IDS beat Portillo for the Tory leadership he lost his remaining enthusiasm for politics
That unherd piece quotes a Hartlepool resident as saying Labour has replaced all the people with regional accents with people from Wiltshire. They must be thinking of somewhere else than deep blue Wiltshire. I mean, granted Corbyn is a fellow moonraker, but still.
We are apparently popular with Welsh Parliament members though.
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
Does make me wonder where mayoralties rank, prestige wise.
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
I've wondered about that too. In both Khan and Burnham's case there definitely seemed to be an element of not wanting to have anything to do with the disaster that was Corbyn and not wanting to spend all their prime political years asking pointless questions instead of making decisions. Labour could probably do with getting them both back, especially the latter.
The sad thing is as I’ve said many times, Starmer was the best Labour had.
I'm not so sure.
Starmer was an arch Remainer and the fact is that Labour's Red Wall aren't. They are Brexiteers and that doesn't mean just about Brexit. It's a generational seismic shift that encompasses British patriotism and an anti-woke agenda. Starmer is a million miles away from these people. However much he tries to big up his south London tough background, which might be true, he's a metropolitan barrister.
He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner.
I don't honestly know how Labour come back, I really don't. They are caught on the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand there's the mainly southern pro-European pro-Remain anti-Brexit internationalist metropolitans with their heartland in Labour London.
On the other there's their old core vote, the red wall, which has little or nothing in common with the aforementioned.
Brexit brought those two factions to a head. Starmer in the end tried to bridge the gap with a risible fudge.
What I would state is (I think) this. Whereas if Labour had a northerner leader who spoke the Red Wall language they would not lose their London core, the opposite is not true. Having a metropolitan Remainer as leader means they will continue to lose their Red Wall.
Jess Phillips is a Brummy not a Northerner either, but is regarded as one by the Metropolitan Londoners who perceive anything outside of the M25 as the Here Be Dragons North. She would have made a far better leader than Keir, and the fact she was so unacceptable to the Metropolitan London membership to even be considered shows what is wrong with Labour.
Load of utter nonsense.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
Maybe you and I just have different interpretations of the word rubbish, but it's good to get a perspective from you of the M25 Inner Sanctum that was being referred to.
What precisely in your eyes makes Jess woeful, while Keir is a good choice?
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
Does make me wonder where mayoralties rank, prestige wise.
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
I wonder if they go back to Commons they'll suffer from Archie Norman syndrome.
From Chief Executive of Asda to backbench (opposition) MP was too much of a drop for him.
No wonder he quit as an MP after two terms in Parliament.
Archie Norman was my MP when I was in the local CF in Tunbridge Wells, he was an OK local MP but really going from being a FTSE 100 CEO to backbench MP was not really in his gameplan, he entered politics to be in the Cabinet at least.
He was also a big supporter of Michael Portillo in 2001 and when IDS beat Portillo for the Tory leadership he lost his remaining enthusiasm for politics
What is CF and when were you in Tunbridge Wells? I lived in Crowborough in the late 80s early 90s so obviously knew TW well.
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
In flint-knapping north London it’s similar. This is not unexpected. It’s probably been like this in north London since the Neolithic (my favourite era)
What is particularly noticeable now, however, is the arrogance and assumption. The other day someone in my friendship group said ‘you’re the only one that ever voted Tory’ - I emphasize this was in a joshing, amiable way - but it was also sincere
I privately doubted this, so I discreetly asked one or two - rich, lawyer or business types.
They reassured me: ‘of course I vote Tory, I just don’t tell anyone’
Just seen the Hartlepool poll - bloody hell if accurate that is grim for Labour and Starmer.
What’s interesting is what this sort of polling means for the medium to long term for the state of the parties. I know I’ve said Labour can’t complacently rely on events leading to a swing back. BUT at some point there will be a non Tory government. If the old northern strongholds become the new Tory safe seats, what are the new Labour targets that form their new base in a future majority government?
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There are so many stories though aren't there:
a) I decide against canvassing a house in the Winchester by election that the firemen were putting out. I suspect the election wasn't high up on the list of their priorities at that moment.
b) I heard a story of a Tory canvasser who lent against a garden wall while waiting for the door to open and it collapsed. He did a runner, but fortunately wasn't on the ball enough to put a LD leaflet through the door before he did so. missed a trick there.
Weird. Surely he had nicked a couple of Lib Dem leaflets out of letter boxes as he went around.
The Philippine foreign minister on Monday demanded in an expletive-laced Twitter message that China's vessels get out of disputed waters, the latest exchange in a war of words with Beijing over the South China Sea.
"China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see... O...GET THE F**K OUT," Locsin tweeted on his personal account.
Just seen the Hartlepool poll - bloody hell if accurate that is grim for Labour and Starmer.
What’s interesting is what this sort of polling means for the medium to long term for the state of the parties. I know I’ve said Labour can’t complacently rely on events leading to a swing back. BUT at some point there will be a non Tory government. If the old northern strongholds become the new Tory safe seats, what are the new Labour targets that form their new base in a future majority government?
The suburbs of the south along with the coastal seats. We may well see a similar effect from London and elsewhere that we have seen in Virginia where Washington sprawl has turned a solid red state blue (why can the Americans not even get their colours right? Or spell colour for that matter.)
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There are so many stories though aren't there:
a) I decide against canvassing a house in the Winchester by election that the firemen were putting out. I suspect the election wasn't high up on the list of their priorities at that moment.
b) I heard a story of a Tory canvasser who lent against a garden wall while waiting for the door to open and it collapsed. He did a runner, but fortunately wasn't on the ball enough to put a LD leaflet through the door before he did so. missed a trick there.
Weird. Surely he had nicked a couple of Lib Dem leaflets out of letter boxes as he went around.
The sad thing is as I’ve said many times, Starmer was the best Labour had.
I'm not so sure.
Starmer was an arch Remainer and the fact is that Labour's Red Wall aren't. They are Brexiteers and that doesn't mean just about Brexit. It's a generational seismic shift that encompasses British patriotism and an anti-woke agenda. Starmer is a million miles away from these people. However much he tries to big up his south London tough background, which might be true, he's a metropolitan barrister.
He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner.
I don't honestly know how Labour come back, I really don't. They are caught on the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand there's the mainly southern pro-European pro-Remain anti-Brexit internationalist metropolitans with their heartland in Labour London.
On the other there's their old core vote, the red wall, which has little or nothing in common with the aforementioned.
Brexit brought those two factions to a head. Starmer in the end tried to bridge the gap with a risible fudge.
What I would state is (I think) this. Whereas if Labour had a northerner leader who spoke the Red Wall language they would not lose their London core, the opposite is not true. Having a metropolitan Remainer as leader means they will continue to lose their Red Wall.
Jess Phillips is a Brummy not a Northerner either, but is regarded as one by the Metropolitan Londoners who perceive anything outside of the M25 as the Here Be Dragons North. She would have made a far better leader than Keir, and the fact she was so unacceptable to the Metropolitan London membership to even be considered shows what is wrong with Labour.
Load of utter nonsense.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
Maybe you and I just have different interpretations of the word rubbish, but it's good to get a perspective from you of the M25 Inner Sanctum that was being referred to.
What precisely in your eyes makes Jess woeful, while Keir is a good choice?
She was woeful in the leadership contest, I actually watched it, did you?
The Tories could probably do with Street in the Commons after this. He has a lot to offer.
He has more power as West Midlands Mayor than he would do as an MP, unless he was assured a big Cabinet post early on
I would have thought the obvious thing would be Minister for levelling up or whatever title that they can give combining Osborne's Northern powerhouse with some real infrastructure spending across the red wall seats, sorry, the needy north.
Street and Johnson do not get on. I doubt he'd ever find his way into a Johnson cabinet.
Just seen the Hartlepool poll - bloody hell if accurate that is grim for Labour and Starmer.
What’s interesting is what this sort of polling means for the medium to long term for the state of the parties. I know I’ve said Labour can’t complacently rely on events leading to a swing back. BUT at some point there will be a non Tory government. If the old northern strongholds become the new Tory safe seats, what are the new Labour targets that form their new base in a future majority government?
In lots of the Home Counties the Tories are weakening substantially, Labour's issue is that it's usually the LDs in the best place to capitalise.
Having 60,000 fans in every day for the test in Ahmedabad looks like a sick joke.
Hubris of nations in the face of covid. I still remember the discussions about why India was different. Just hope our vaccine confidence isn't vaccine hubris (I don't think it is).
The sad thing is as I’ve said many times, Starmer was the best Labour had.
I'm not so sure.
Starmer was an arch Remainer and the fact is that Labour's Red Wall aren't. They are Brexiteers and that doesn't mean just about Brexit. It's a generational seismic shift that encompasses British patriotism and an anti-woke agenda. Starmer is a million miles away from these people. However much he tries to big up his south London tough background, which might be true, he's a metropolitan barrister.
He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner.
I don't honestly know how Labour come back, I really don't. They are caught on the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand there's the mainly southern pro-European pro-Remain anti-Brexit internationalist metropolitans with their heartland in Labour London.
On the other there's their old core vote, the red wall, which has little or nothing in common with the aforementioned.
Brexit brought those two factions to a head. Starmer in the end tried to bridge the gap with a risible fudge.
What I would state is (I think) this. Whereas if Labour had a northerner leader who spoke the Red Wall language they would not lose their London core, the opposite is not true. Having a metropolitan Remainer as leader means they will continue to lose their Red Wall.
Jess Phillips is a Brummy not a Northerner either, but is regarded as one by the Metropolitan Londoners who perceive anything outside of the M25 as the Here Be Dragons North. She would have made a far better leader than Keir, and the fact she was so unacceptable to the Metropolitan London membership to even be considered shows what is wrong with Labour.
Load of utter nonsense.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
Maybe you and I just have different interpretations of the word rubbish, but it's good to get a perspective from you of the M25 Inner Sanctum that was being referred to.
What precisely in your eyes makes Jess woeful, while Keir is a good choice?
She was woeful in the leadership contest, I actually watched it, did you?
I didn't say she was woeful now.
Why was she woeful though in your eyes?
Perhaps that which you thought as woeful is what is needed to be taken seriously elsewhere? Have you considered that?
Relevant to those of us who go electioneering, I will join ANY party who pledge to make letter boxes at the bottom of a front door illegal. Especially ones where they are behind two gates.
How about ones with a strong spring that closes on your fingers… just after the yappy nippy dog gets there
Or the ones with so much baffling behind them that your leaflet ends up a screwed up rag before the said yappy dog even gets a hold of it.
I think we should start 'The Letterbox Party'.
To add to the list:
a) Silent dogs (many and 1 hospital trip as a consequence)
b) Dogs that crash into the door at 100mph (many)
c) Those people who have considerately put a box at the front so you don't have to walk down the 100 metre drive but is now hidden in a hedge so you do walk down a 100 metre drive and waste 10 minutes looking for a letterbox that doesn't exist (several)
d) People who are ungrateful when you return their door keys which are still in the lock.
e) People who don't close their door properly so you land in their hall while putting the leaflet through the door (once)
That is an excellent manifesto. How could anyone not vote for this?
I remember during the better together campaign trying to leaflet in a dodgy area of Dundee and the Rottweiler hit the door so hard it bulged outwards by several inches. I think I vaulted the gate on the way out! Genuinely terrifying.
There are so many stories though aren't there:
a) I decide against canvassing a house in the Winchester by election that the firemen were putting out. I suspect the election wasn't high up on the list of their priorities at that moment.
b) I heard a story of a Tory canvasser who lent against a garden wall while waiting for the door to open and it collapsed. He did a runner, but fortunately wasn't on the ball enough to put a LD leaflet through the door before he did so. missed a trick there.
Weird. Surely he had nicked a couple of Lib Dem leaflets out of letter boxes as he went around.
Nobody ever does that do they?
Of course not, that would be...shocking 😉. Of course when the letterbox party sweeps to power this will no longer be even possible because it will be possible to safely and completely deliver political propaganda to all the houses of the country without difficulty or risk of interference.
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
I struggle to understand anyone supporting the Conservatives from 1997-2010, now supporting left wing parties, but you are right, it is a real phenomenon. Brexit is obviously part of the story, but only part of it.
It is class politics played out in a different way. I live in Highgate. In 2019, the bigger the house, the greater chance they would show a Labour poster. The terraces (the Muswell Hill side obviously) tended to have Lib Dem ones.
This is interesting reading - but Labour only wins at best 26 seats, reducing the Tory majority a bit but nowhere near to power.
So their route to power seems to be the Biden approach.
Yes. And uncomfortably for the Labour Right and Left, that has to mean co-operation across the board, as Biden has engaged with both Sanders and the centrists, That is also the platform Starmer was elected on.
Hartlepool - Labour drifting like a barge. It'll be a real surprise if they hold on. Think I've called this one right from the get-go (sadly).
#newpunditry-newpolitics.
Now 6 with BF. Is this off the back of one poll?
Sort of - Houchen winning the Teeside Mayor two to one in the first round is also helping the bettors.
But given that two polls have been conducted on Hartlepool specifically, one showing a 7% Con lead, the more recent second a 17% lead, you can see why it'd take a brave man to back Labour right now.
The sad thing is as I’ve said many times, Starmer was the best Labour had.
I'm not so sure.
Starmer was an arch Remainer and the fact is that Labour's Red Wall aren't. They are Brexiteers and that doesn't mean just about Brexit. It's a generational seismic shift that encompasses British patriotism and an anti-woke agenda. Starmer is a million miles away from these people. However much he tries to big up his south London tough background, which might be true, he's a metropolitan barrister.
He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner. He's not a northerner.
I don't honestly know how Labour come back, I really don't. They are caught on the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand there's the mainly southern pro-European pro-Remain anti-Brexit internationalist metropolitans with their heartland in Labour London.
On the other there's their old core vote, the red wall, which has little or nothing in common with the aforementioned.
Brexit brought those two factions to a head. Starmer in the end tried to bridge the gap with a risible fudge.
What I would state is (I think) this. Whereas if Labour had a northerner leader who spoke the Red Wall language they would not lose their London core, the opposite is not true. Having a metropolitan Remainer as leader means they will continue to lose their Red Wall.
Jess Phillips is a Brummy not a Northerner either, but is regarded as one by the Metropolitan Londoners who perceive anything outside of the M25 as the Here Be Dragons North. She would have made a far better leader than Keir, and the fact she was so unacceptable to the Metropolitan London membership to even be considered shows what is wrong with Labour.
Load of utter nonsense.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
Maybe you and I just have different interpretations of the word rubbish, but it's good to get a perspective from you of the M25 Inner Sanctum that was being referred to.
What precisely in your eyes makes Jess woeful, while Keir is a good choice?
She was woeful in the leadership contest, I actually watched it, did you?
I didn't say she was woeful now.
Why was she woeful though in your eyes?
Perhaps that which you thought as woeful is what is needed to be taken seriously elsewhere? Have you considered that?
Got nothing to do with that at all. She performed absolutely dreadfully in all the debates.
I think Labour absolutely has to appeal to people outside of London. But I agree with @Gallowgate, that doesn't exclude them from also appealing to people in London. There's lots of poverty, working class people here too.
Having 60,000 fans in every day for the test in Ahmedabad looks like a sick joke.
Hubris of nations in the face of covid. I still remember the discussions about why India was different. Just hope our vaccine confidence isn't vaccine hubris (I don't think it is).
It's not.
Besides which there is no viable alternative. Lockdowns can buy time to develop and distribute vaccines but after that? You can't live like that.
Once people are vaccinated we need to get back to normal. Not a semi alive "new normal", but a real normal. If there's new elements it should be because these are changes we still want years from now not because of Covid.
If some people still get sick and die post vaccines then they get sick and die. That's life, we can't cheat death and everyone dies eventually. Unlike India though we will have done all we can first.
This is interesting reading - but Labour only wins at best 26 seats, reducing the Tory majority a bit but nowhere near to power.
So their route to power seems to be the Biden approach.
Yes. And uncomfortably for the Labour Right and Left, that has to mean co-operation across the board, as Biden has engaged with both Sanders and the centrists, That is also the platform Starmer was elected on.
If it were me, I would be seriously considering an unofficial pact with the Lib Dems.
Stand down/put in paper candidates for Labour in Guildford, Winchester. Lib Dems stand down in much of London.
Just seen the Hartlepool poll - bloody hell if accurate that is grim for Labour and Starmer.
What’s interesting is what this sort of polling means for the medium to long term for the state of the parties. I know I’ve said Labour can’t complacently rely on events leading to a swing back. BUT at some point there will be a non Tory government. If the old northern strongholds become the new Tory safe seats, what are the new Labour targets that form their new base in a future majority government?
In lots of the Home Counties the Tories are weakening substantially, Labour's issue is that it's usually the LDs in the best place to capitalise.
This is the second issue for the left-of-centre, as well as Labour remaining stubbornly more left-right factional than the US Democrats. Unless they learn to co-operate with the Lib Dems and Greens, as the Tories did with the Brexit Party, and get over their factional hatred of them, they may never get back into power.
This rather ignores that this seat (or its predecessor) last returned a Tory in 1959. The Red Wall seems to be continuing to crumble.
Yet, what about elsewhere in the country? In my rather leafy Bucks village I have yet to see a single Tory banner. A few Labour but many Green signs. Locally the Greens have done quite well before and I would expect that to continue. Locally they don't have to worry about some of their more bonkers national policies. As a traditional Tory I am tempted to give them my vote in the locals which I would never do in a general election.
Labour aren't going to get anywhere because Starmer is utterly shit. It doesn't matter if you're shit and the incumbent because well better the devil you know and all that. The Tories are talking jobs, Labour is banging on about some wallpaper or other. Burnham is going to smash G Manchester because he does actually have a bit about him unlike the frankly dire Starmer. Greater Manchester was once not that much more Labour than the West Midsor North East. It probably still isn't but they'll do well there because Burnham is believed in.
Labour made a huge mistake picking Corbyn over Burnham in 2017, had they chosen Burnham they would probably have won most seats ahead of May's Tories in 2017. Starmer ironically backed Burnham for leader then
Yeah there are structural changes going on but Labour should really have won stuff like Northfield in 2019. If Labour can't more or less sweep major city seats they'll never, ever win.
I think one thing that fools Labour is the political changes within their social and professional circles.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
I struggle to understand anyone supporting the Conservatives from 1997-2010, now supporting left wing parties, but you are right, it is a real phenomenon. Brexit is obviously part of the story, but only part of it.
It is class politics played out in a different way. I live in Highgate. In 2019, the bigger the house, the greater chance they would show a Labour poster. The terraces (the Muswell Hill side obviously) tended to have Lib Dem ones.
But even if every single owner of every huge house in Highgate had voted Labour in 2019 it would not have been close to enough for Labour to win the majority it did in Holborn and St Pancras. Like it or not, in London Labour wins because it gets the votes of ordinary Londoners on average or below average wages living in rented private or council accommodation. Labour's problem is that most of the rest of England is not like London.
Just imagine a young Mike Smithson, clutching his coppers (the coins, not the bill) as he steps up to the window, peering upward and piping, "Please sir, may I put a half crown on Sir Alec"? (Or whatever he - the laird, not Mike - was calling himself at that moment.)
The hardened bookie snorts in derision, "It'll be yer funeral, lad. Sure you don't want to invest in a half-pound of Turkish Delight instead?"
"No, Sir!"
And the rest, as they say, is history . . .
Brilliant story - just one part seems slightly inaccurate historically. As a Brit, young Smithson would have said 'half a crown', not 'a half crown'.
Just seen the Hartlepool poll - bloody hell if accurate that is grim for Labour and Starmer.
What’s interesting is what this sort of polling means for the medium to long term for the state of the parties. I know I’ve said Labour can’t complacently rely on events leading to a swing back. BUT at some point there will be a non Tory government. If the old northern strongholds become the new Tory safe seats, what are the new Labour targets that form their new base in a future majority government?
In lots of the Home Counties the Tories are weakening substantially, Labour's issue is that it's usually the LDs in the best place to capitalise.
Yes, and in seats where Lab won or came close in 97 and 01 they are going backwards at a rate of knots...
Comments
This is the most useful tip you'll ever get from me.
Street winning WMidlands by 17 points, and doing so on first preferences alone. (54-37 first round).
I also think the coalitions within parties make this difficult, probably caused by FPTP. Labour is made up of Social Democrats and Socialists. The means to an end of Socialism is an anathema to a Liberal. Similarly Conservatives, as I know Philip will acknowledge, is not just made up a free market liberals and the social conservatives in this group is a challenge for liberals, because not only do we disagree with the end results, but also the means of getting there which is no different from Socialism i.e state control.
Cameron and Clegg came in the free market liberal category.
Add your own ‘turn out the lights’ joke.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Tees Valley Mayoral Voting Intention:
Houchen (CON): 63% (+23)
Jacobs (LAB): 37% (-2)
Via @OpiniumResearch
, 19-26 Apr.
Changes w/ 2017.
Another factor may be that industry was hugely inefficient in the late 1970s, and the elimination of overmanning during the 1980s as modern processes were introduced, caused a reduction in manufacturing employment. People noticed this more than the increased total production.
There's been a huge change in graduate and upper-middle class support since the noughties, particularly amongst educated graduate women. I can think of three friends who supported the Tories even during the Blair years and went for Cameron in GE2010 who are now solidly centre-left. Educated graduate males have also slipped to Lib Dem, or Green, or "alternative" - usually not Labour, funnily enough - as they've sensed the Conservatives no longer speak to their values.
I occupy a lonely place politically within my friendship group, now, and largely don't mention politics - except to a handful on a 1:1 basis who I know are sympathetic (male professionals who keep it under the radar).
Said big barking bastards gnash and snarl at you all the way round their garden. After a few minutes the lady of the house comes out to see what the fuss is about. Doesn't shut them up you understands, just stands there arms folded looking like Mutha off Biffa Bacon.
I'd love to have *that* as a neighbour.
So, when are you going to smell the coffee?
First Minister candidate for the new English Parliament in 2026 might work for him.
All the stars are perfectly aligned for the government at the moment: we are at peak Tory, due to the list SO outlines. The only way for Tories now is down, and for Labour the only way is up. It's not really about Starmer - he could do little to stop the boost from vaccines, unlockdowning, Brexit done, furlough and so forth.
As I've said before, the risk for the government is that when the current boost factors begin to fade, which they will, they may be left facing a different narrative, where cronyism and sleaze become significant topics. There will be more to come after Greensill, wallpapergate and all the others, just because the PM can't avoid such errors.
So the question for me is, can the Tories keep on finding new ways to regenerate its current popularity once the pandemic is properly over? This time next year we will be in a better place to judge that, and to judge whether Starmer/Labour has made progress. Until then, I remain sanguine.
What does the "common working man" even mean? Are you denying that the common working man doesn't exist in major cities?
There's no denying that Labour is seen as not being in touch with vast swathes of the population, especially in poorer places like Hartlepool. And yet Labour still pulls in 35%+ of the vote nationwide, not that much less than the Conservative Party. It just happens to be really inefficient at present.
She quit the leadership race because she was rubbish. Got nothing to do with her background, as usual you know nothing about the party.
And do not assume labour in England could not go the same way as labour in Scotland
Change is an ever constant, and unless you can adapt and improve you become irrelevant
The working man also exists in the cities.
Hartlepool - Labour drifting like a barge. It'll be a real surprise if they hold on. Think I've called this one right from the get-go (sadly).
#newpunditry-newpolitics.
Labour is seen as being establishment, elitist, and obsessed with minority causes that are of no interest to the average working man. Indeed, some Labour politicians (far from all, I hasten to add) mock them and suggest they are guilty of things like 'patriarchy' and 'white privilege'.
Unless and until that changes (and there's an obvious strategy for Labour here) they will stay out of office indefinitely.
In today's @FinancialTimes
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1389493772170547200?s=20
And as for change being an ever constant -??
The working class leads for the Tories now are absolutely massive. There are some fundamental issues here. Think about it - there are strategies for a good clever centre-left party to win outright.
Anyway, I must work. Have a good day.
a) I decide against canvassing a house in the Winchester by election that the firemen were putting out. I suspect the election wasn't high up on the list of their priorities at that moment.
b) I heard a story of a Tory canvasser who lent against a garden wall while waiting for the door to open and it collapsed. He did a runner, but fortunately wasn't on the ball enough to put a LD leaflet through the door before he did so. missed a trick there.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1389497195322388480?s=19
Are they stepping stones to the Commons where theyd go from high profile locally to at the whim of the party leader? Are they are escape from Westminster for the disaffected and those whose career is going nowhere? Are they a means to develop high quality candidates too individual for the backbenches? Or do they actually matter?
This seems right to me.
The problem Labour has, is there are not nearly enough Southern seats to counter those lost in the Red Wall. Anyone run the numbers on that, isn't it something like they need to win JRM's seat to undo the Red Wall
For Labour to survive they need to do the same
And yes change is an ever constant in life
From Chief Executive of Asda to backbench (opposition) MP was too much of a drop for him.
No wonder he quit as an MP after two terms in Parliament.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1389500603877969921?s=20
I considered myself an expert re the perils of dogs and letterboxes, but a lack of concentration and a silent dog got me. He had my finger the other side of the letterbox and the only way I could escape was to pull my hand out which ripped my finger open to the bone on the top segment.
The hospital was only 1 mile away and I thought I could drive, but couldn't, so the person I was delivering with drove my car. As a consequence the cover now was third party only. I was concerned about this afterwards and asked the insurance company what would have happened if we have had an accident. Tough was the answer. You should have called an ambulance. That response annoyed me as calling an ambulance I considered irresponsible. I just needed stiches, I wasn't at death's door.
I changed to Saga who offer this cover in the case of emergencies. In an emergency a third party can dive my car and my car will still be covered fully comp under my insurance.
This is interesting reading - but Labour only wins at best 26 seats, reducing the Tory majority a bit but nowhere near to power.
So their route to power seems to be the Biden approach.
Even Nigel Farage when he was on LBC encouraged callers with different viewpoints to call in and engaged positively with them. I don't remember him ever belittling anyone.
JO'B needs to learn some manners. However his audience I'm sure tunes in to listen to him belittling Brexiteers via the power of the "mute" button.
He was also a big supporter of Michael Portillo in 2001 and when IDS beat Portillo for the Tory leadership he lost his remaining enthusiasm for politics
We are apparently popular with Welsh Parliament members though.
What precisely in your eyes makes Jess woeful, while Keir is a good choice?
What is particularly noticeable now, however, is the arrogance and assumption. The other day someone in my friendship group said ‘you’re the only one that ever voted Tory’ - I emphasize this was in a joshing, amiable way - but it was also sincere
I privately doubted this, so I discreetly asked one or two - rich, lawyer or business types.
They reassured me: ‘of course I vote Tory, I just don’t tell anyone’
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/03/asia/philippines-locsin-profanity-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html
The Philippine foreign minister on Monday demanded in an expletive-laced Twitter message that China's vessels get out of disputed waters, the latest exchange in a war of words with Beijing over the South China Sea.
"China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see... O...GET THE F**K OUT," Locsin tweeted on his personal account.
And then everyone on the bus applauded.
I didn't say she was woeful now.
Just hope our vaccine confidence isn't vaccine hubris (I don't think it is).
Perhaps that which you thought as woeful is what is needed to be taken seriously elsewhere? Have you considered that?
But given that two polls have been conducted on Hartlepool specifically, one showing a 7% Con lead, the more recent second a 17% lead, you can see why it'd take a brave man to back Labour right now.
I think Labour absolutely has to appeal to people outside of London. But I agree with @Gallowgate, that doesn't exclude them from also appealing to people in London. There's lots of poverty, working class people here too.
They need to appeal to both.
Besides which there is no viable alternative. Lockdowns can buy time to develop and distribute vaccines but after that? You can't live like that.
Once people are vaccinated we need to get back to normal. Not a semi alive "new normal", but a real normal. If there's new elements it should be because these are changes we still want years from now not because of Covid.
If some people still get sick and die post vaccines then they get sick and die. That's life, we can't cheat death and everyone dies eventually. Unlike India though we will have done all we can first.
Stand down/put in paper candidates for Labour in Guildford, Winchester. Lib Dems stand down in much of London.
Bet it doesn't happen.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/04/what-would-be-good-result-labour-hartlepool-election
This rather ignores that this seat (or its predecessor) last returned a Tory in 1959. The Red Wall seems to be continuing to crumble.
Yet, what about elsewhere in the country? In my rather leafy Bucks village I have yet to see a single Tory banner. A few Labour but many Green signs. Locally the Greens have done quite well before and I would expect that to continue. Locally they don't have to worry about some of their more bonkers national policies. As a traditional Tory I am tempted to give them my vote in the locals which I would never do in a general election.
Brilliant story - just one part seems slightly inaccurate historically. As a Brit, young Smithson would have said 'half a crown', not 'a half crown'.