A Nigerian qualifies for a UK state pension having worked in London for 30 years and has recently retired and moved to Edinburgh.
Scotland becomes independent.
Who pays his future pension liability?
Who pays if he then moves to New York?
That would depend entirely on his status if he became a Scottish citizen it would be Scotland , etc, etc
No, he's a Nigerian. Who is eligible for and receives a UK state pension due to his years of qualifying NIC payments. He is neither a Scottish nor British citizen.
Who pays his UK state pension?
As I said earlier, this is an obligation jointly assumed by all current UK citizens. The provenance going forward of jointly assumed obligations will no doubt be part of the complex divorce negotiations. It is naive to assume that all such jointly assumed obligations will be left entirely to rUK.
This is the crucial point. It's not the case that - if one part of the UK splits off - that it keeps its share of the assets but loses the liabilities.
The reality is that it would be a part of the negotiation, just as pensions for Eurocrats were part of the negotiations between the EU and the UK.
But the precedent is that the departing state took on the liabilities, which was fair. I don't see any scenario where the UK government continues to pay pensions for Scottish citizens after independence. It really does become their problem.
Unless the pensioner has dual nationality, though that would be limited to people with an English parent I imagine.
Even then, I expect dual national to need England/Wales/NI residency to qualify. I think anyone voting for independence should come to terms with these simple facts. You should still do it anyway, but don't vote to leave the UK on the basis that the UK will continue to fund and independent Scotland in any way. Any party that proposes this will simply get voted out and any party which promises to end any legacy payments immediately and permanently will win.
So you are demanding to treay rUK nationals like terrorists just because they happen to live in Scotland?
You really do need to wind your neck in.
If you vote to depart the UK you will plunge Scotland into Depression and England into a very deep recession. And the whole nation will be torn apart and hurled into a decade of constitutional chaos. Again
Right now, I love Scotland. You are part of me, you are British. I am happy for us to continue to subsidise you, because you have subsidised us in the past, that's how unions work. We are brothers.
But if you vote to smash all this up? Hell yes, I will want you punished. I will want you to suffer. The idea I will vote for any government that promises to indulge this vandalism - with MY money - is absurd. The party that promises to make Scotland moan in pain will get my vote. Millions will do likewise.
Reckon with this, because it is true
I'm simply pointing out that the PBTories are actually saying that rUK subjects who happen to live in Scvotland should have their pensions withdrawn.
How does that make sense?
Your argument appears to be that on day 1 of an independent Scotland all pensions for Scottish residents would be paid by rUK, and Scottish taxpayers would have to pay nothing.
That's completely illogical.
It's magical thinking of the worst kind.
No, no - only rUK subjects who have retained rUK citizenship, like in Australia etc.
But I would think everyone in Scotland would initially still hold British passports wouldn't they? Or would everyone be forced to choose one or the other?
Depends. Some people would have no claim on one side or the other. I am 100% Scottish by grandparents and residence and wouldn't expect to have a rUK passport. But some folk would be able to ask for both, I expect. E.g. someone with a Scottish parent but living in Birmingham could ask for a Scottish passport. Cf Ireland today.
I relate back to Robert Burns and my grandparents live in Scotland - presumably I can get a Scottish passport too?
As someone pointed out, context is everything here. If you ask, do you care that the PM is spending a couple of hundred thousand refurbishing his flat, they may think, fine it goes with the job. If however you ask, is it OK for the PM to accept ad hoc "gifts" of a couple of hundred thousand a time from persons unknown, they might think, this needs tightening up.
Yes. "Wallpaper" reduces to banality and you can do that to almost anything. 1966 was 22 men chasing a ball around a field.
A Nigerian qualifies for a UK state pension having worked in London for 30 years and has recently retired and moved to Edinburgh.
Scotland becomes independent.
Who pays his future pension liability?
Who pays if he then moves to New York?
That would depend entirely on his status if he became a Scottish citizen it would be Scotland , etc, etc
No, he's a Nigerian. Who is eligible for and receives a UK state pension due to his years of qualifying NIC payments. He is neither a Scottish nor British citizen.
Who pays his UK state pension?
As I said earlier, this is an obligation jointly assumed by all current UK citizens. The provenance going forward of jointly assumed obligations will no doubt be part of the complex divorce negotiations. It is naive to assume that all such jointly assumed obligations will be left entirely to rUK.
This is the crucial point. It's not the case that - if one part of the UK splits off - that it keeps its share of the assets but loses the liabilities.
The reality is that it would be a part of the negotiation, just as pensions for Eurocrats were part of the negotiations between the EU and the UK.
But the precedent is that the departing state took on the liabilities, which was fair. I don't see any scenario where the UK government continues to pay pensions for Scottish citizens after independence. It really does become their problem.
Unless the pensioner has dual nationality, though that would be limited to people with an English parent I imagine.
Even then, I expect dual national to need England/Wales/NI residency to qualify. I think anyone voting for independence should come to terms with these simple facts. You should still do it anyway, but don't vote to leave the UK on the basis that the UK will continue to fund and independent Scotland in any way. Any party that proposes this will simply get voted out and any party which promises to end any legacy payments immediately and permanently will win.
So you are demanding to treay rUK nationals like terrorists just because they happen to live in Scotland?
You really do need to wind your neck in.
If you vote to depart the UK you will plunge Scotland into Depression and England into a very deep recession. And the whole nation will be torn apart and hurled into a decade of constitutional chaos. Again
Right now, I love Scotland. You are part of me, you are British. I am happy for us to continue to subsidise you, because you have subsidised us in the past, that's how unions work. We are brothers.
But if you vote to smash all this up? Hell yes, I will want you punished. I will want you to suffer. The idea I will vote for any government that promises to indulge this vandalism - with MY money - is absurd. The party that promises to make Scotland moan in pain will get my vote. Millions will do likewise.
Reckon with this, because it is true
I'm simply pointing out that the PBTories are actually saying that rUK subjects who happen to live in Scvotland should have their pensions withdrawn.
How does that make sense?
Your argument appears to be that on day 1 of an independent Scotland all pensions for Scottish residents would be paid by rUK, and Scottish taxpayers would have to pay nothing.
That's completely illogical.
It's magical thinking of the worst kind.
No, no - only rUK subjects who have retained rUK citizenship, like in Australia etc.
But I would think everyone in Scotland would initially still hold British passports wouldn't they? Or would everyone be forced to choose one or the other?
Depends. Some people would have no claim on one side or the other. I am 100% Scottish by grandparents and residence and wouldn't expect to have a rUK passport. But some folk would be able to ask for both, I expect. E.g. someone with a Scottish parent but living in Birmingham could ask for a Scottish passport. Cf Ireland today.
I relate back to Robert Burns and my grandparents live in Scotland - presumably I can get a Scottish passport too?
Wouldn't surprise me at all, not for the Burns/Burnes family (which is very nice BTW) but the formal qualification, though I'm not quite sure if a grandparent would be enough in practice. The White Paper in 2014 did discuss the matter in some detail, but I expect it will also be affected by what the rUK gmt had in mind.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
Quite right. They shouldn’t be serving beer in a hospital...
O/T - I've just been harangued by my Sainsbury deliveryman on the evils of Biden. "Did you see his rambling speech?" "No." "It was terrible! The Yanks made such a blunder when they picked him over Trump." "He seems quite popular, though." "I don't believe that. Still, their problem. They can't be as good as us." I glanced at him to look for a hint of irony. Not a bit of it. He was glaring and red-faced. Perhaps I should have argued, but it's like racist taxi-drivers - it never seems worth the effort...
I wouldn't want reactionary vox pop with my groceries. Can't you tick a box to opt out of it?
I must admit I am amazed by anyone who thinks it is appropriate to discuss politics with a stranger (cue ironic comments about PB but you know what I mean). I just consider it the height of bad manners to put anyone in a position where they might feel they cannot answer because they disagree with what I have said. The assumption that anyone agrees with my own personal politics is just crass in the extreme.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
Probably worth waiting until next week as well..
I am increasingly confident that those parties supporting a referendum in the coming Parliament will not get 50% of the vote. If they don't Boris will have absolutely no problem in saying no and Nicola will want him too (assuming she is still around).
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Surely 2014 set a predecent in what is deemed gold standard? Unionist boycott the vote - can’t really see how independence ploughs on.
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
You want to have your pint in the hospital?
Right now I'd go anywhere. Its bloody freezing out there.
Ministers have urged a family facing a devastating bill as part of the building safety crisis to contact the Samaritans if they want help with “feelings of distress or despair”.
In a move that sparked “disbelief” in the leaseholder involved, Jamie Robb, the response from an aide to the housing secretary, Robert Jenrick, to a plea for help with fire remediation works included the phone number for the suicide prevention service. It recommended its “free, anonymous, confidential and non-judgemental support”.
The Robb family wrote to Jenrick in November last year after Jamie Robb, 30, discovered he was facing a bill of up to £40,000 for fire safety repairs on his apartment in a Manchester high-rise.
The response arrived this week as the government pushed through fire safety legislation that leaves thousands of leaseholders facing bills of up to £75,000 each to fix apartment buildings found to be dangerous in the wake of the Grenfell Tower fire. “The government is aware of the effect that ongoing building safety concerns may have on the mental health of residents … If you feel able to, you can discuss any difficulties with your GP who will be able to signpost you to suitable healthcare services, if appropriate. You can also access support from the Samaritans by calling freephone 116 123”.
Seems like a good sensitive thing to do if people are having mental health issues.
I think I'd have a severe mental health issue if I was facing a 40 grand bill out the blue.
I’m still pissed about how much George Osborne gouged me for when I bought my house
Think about how pissed millions of people are about what £11m of donations to the Tory party from property developers buys in the way of resistance to making property developers liable for removal of flammable cladding.
If you have evidence of corruption then please post it.
I find it distasteful that so many people are willing to make serious accusations of this nature without proof. It’s corrosive to our political culture
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Surely 2014 set a predecent in what is deemed gold standard? Unionist boycott the vote - can’t really see how independence ploughs on.
Well if Westminster grants a section 30 order with a proviso that turnout needs to equal or exceed 2014 then a boycott is all but inevitable.
But Scottish plebiscites with a turnout threshold is a fun history.
https://twitter.com/RoyChaudhuri/status/1388093905854418945 I know nothing about cricket, but had a fantastic time watching a Test at Edgbaston. It's mainly an excuse to sit in the sunshine and drink all day. Also, the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football...
"the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football..."
Check out the tailgating in the parking lots of US football stadiums. Esp. college football in the South and other places where the locals are SERIOUS about their cooking.
Personally recommend LSU games at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge.
You may have to bring your own pâté, but guarantee you can swap it for some andouille!
Try the Easter Monday point to point at Hackwood Park or the celebration of George III’s birthday at Windsor for really superior tailgating parties
IF an outsider turned up, and wanted to boil up an olympic-size cauldron full of crawfish OR roast a whole ox on a spit, would that be ok?
Both those things COULD be possible out in the parking lot, when LSU plays 'Bama in Death Valley.
They are more hard-boiled quail eggs and celeriac salt type events to be honest
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Wargame the situation where the unionist boycott is only partial in effect and it's even messier.
O/T - I've just been harangued by my Sainsbury deliveryman on the evils of Biden. "Did you see his rambling speech?" "No." "It was terrible! The Yanks made such a blunder when they picked him over Trump." "He seems quite popular, though." "I don't believe that. Still, their problem. They can't be as good as us." I glanced at him to look for a hint of irony. Not a bit of it. He was glaring and red-faced. Perhaps I should have argued, but it's like racist taxi-drivers - it never seems worth the effort...
I wouldn't want reactionary vox pop with my groceries. Can't you tick a box to opt out of it?
I must admit I am amazed by anyone who thinks it is appropriate to discuss politics with a stranger (cue ironic comments about PB but you know what I mean). I just consider it the height of bad manners to put anyone in a position where they might feel they cannot answer because they disagree with what I have said. The assumption that anyone agrees with my own personal politics is just crass in the extreme.
"discuss politics with a stranger" - political canvassing.
And our Nick is a Class A, Blue (or rather Red) Ribbon super-canvasser.
Sure that he's VERY careful NOT to be judgmental let alone crass. Judging from his PB commentary.
Talking of returning to normal, I have today been for a long walk around Kinder Scout, followed by - for the first time since early October - a visit to a pub. The Pack Horse, in Hayfield, which I would very much recommend for both beer and food. AND I've also been out for a meal with the wife and kids. A good day.
Keir Starmer @Keir_Starmer ThisDown pointing backhand index Quote Tweet President Biden @POTUS
United States government official · 29 Apr Trickle-down economics has never worked.
It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.
What's he gonna do then?
Serious question; Is he going to tax the American rich like a European social democrat? That would be quite something. Yet I doubt it
And yet it is not so many years ago that the US did just that. When Reagan came to power in 1980 the top rate of tax was 70% having only dropped from over 90% in the mid 1950s.
Admittedly that is a couple of generations ago but it is smack in the middle of that era of the post war American Dream which still holds so much power in the American psyche.
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Yours truly agrees with you on this point, and ditto for US Democrats.
Do NOT have to embrace racism and xenophobia. Just act like Average White People are people too.
My daughter has just been forced to read a deeply disturbing book at school
All about a black race car and a white race car who have a race… but when the black car wins the race committee change the runs to make it harder for him to win next year…
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Surely 2014 set a predecent in what is deemed gold standard? Unionist boycott the vote - can’t really see how independence ploughs on.
Well if Westminster grants a section 30 order with a proviso that turnout needs to equal or exceed 2014 then a boycott is all but inevitable.
But Scottish plebiscites with a turnout threshold is a fun history.
"Yes to Devolution" won on 51.6% in 1979, but turnout was 67%, so Yes was supported by less than the 40%. threshold.
The courts will ask the UK government what they do consider to be the trigger for Indyref2 (both in terms of vote shares and seats) as well at time.
The UK government may also be arguing that a referendum and/or devolved Parliaments are bound by previous parliaments which creates an awkward precedent at Westminster.
But for shits and giggles this court hearing maybe taking around the time Sinn Fein win the popular vote in Stormont elections which may trigger a calls for an Irish unity referendum where the UK government may be arguing contradictory things.
O/T - I've just been harangued by my Sainsbury deliveryman on the evils of Biden. "Did you see his rambling speech?" "No." "It was terrible! The Yanks made such a blunder when they picked him over Trump." "He seems quite popular, though." "I don't believe that. Still, their problem. They can't be as good as us." I glanced at him to look for a hint of irony. Not a bit of it. He was glaring and red-faced. Perhaps I should have argued, but it's like racist taxi-drivers - it never seems worth the effort...
I wouldn't want reactionary vox pop with my groceries. Can't you tick a box to opt out of it?
I must admit I am amazed by anyone who thinks it is appropriate to discuss politics with a stranger (cue ironic comments about PB but you know what I mean). I just consider it the height of bad manners to put anyone in a position where they might feel they cannot answer because they disagree with what I have said. The assumption that anyone agrees with my own personal politics is just crass in the extreme.
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
You want to have your pint in the hospital?
In my first job on a geriatric ward, we had Sherry, Whisky and Brandy on the drug trolley, served as an aperterif. It came in medicine bottles, unbonded. The Sherry was pretty dire, the whisky tolerable and the brandy reasonable. We used to have small tins of stout too.
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Yours truly agrees with you on this point, and ditto for US Democrats.
Do NOT have to embrace racism and xenophobia. Just act like Average White People are people too.
My daughter has just been forced to read a deeply disturbing book at school
All about a black race car and a white race car who have a race… but when the black car wins the race committee change the runs to make it harder for him to win next year…
O/T - I've just been harangued by my Sainsbury deliveryman on the evils of Biden. "Did you see his rambling speech?" "No." "It was terrible! The Yanks made such a blunder when they picked him over Trump." "He seems quite popular, though." "I don't believe that. Still, their problem. They can't be as good as us." I glanced at him to look for a hint of irony. Not a bit of it. He was glaring and red-faced. Perhaps I should have argued, but it's like racist taxi-drivers - it never seems worth the effort...
I wouldn't want reactionary vox pop with my groceries. Can't you tick a box to opt out of it?
I must admit I am amazed by anyone who thinks it is appropriate to discuss politics with a stranger (cue ironic comments about PB but you know what I mean). I just consider it the height of bad manners to put anyone in a position where they might feel they cannot answer because they disagree with what I have said. The assumption that anyone agrees with my own personal politics is just crass in the extreme.
"discuss politics with a stranger" - political canvassing.
And our Nick is a Class A, Blue (or rather Red) Ribbon super-canvasser.
Sure that he's VERY careful NOT to be judgmental let alone crass. Judging from his PB commentary.
Yes but that is a specific job directly relate to the political process. I am talking about your average delivery man or taxi driver deciding to start off on a political diatribe.
Talking of returning to normal, I have today been for a long walk around Kinder Scout, followed by - for the first time since early October - a visit to a pub. The Pack Horse, in Hayfield, which I would very much recommend for both beer and food. AND I've also been out for a meal with the wife and kids. A good day.
I was out with pals in Edinburgh last night. I simply cannot tell you how much better I feel today psychologically. Its been a long hard haul since Christmas. And by noon today my feet had even thawed.
Russia recorded more than 400,000 excess deaths from last April to this March during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the state statistics agency published on Friday.
A Nigerian qualifies for a UK state pension having worked in London for 30 years and has recently retired and moved to Edinburgh.
Scotland becomes independent.
Who pays his future pension liability?
Who pays if he then moves to New York?
That would depend entirely on his status if he became a Scottish citizen it would be Scotland , etc, etc
No, he's a Nigerian. Who is eligible for and receives a UK state pension due to his years of qualifying NIC payments. He is neither a Scottish nor British citizen.
Who pays his UK state pension?
As I said earlier, this is an obligation jointly assumed by all current UK citizens. The provenance going forward of jointly assumed obligations will no doubt be part of the complex divorce negotiations. It is naive to assume that all such jointly assumed obligations will be left entirely to rUK.
This is the crucial point. It's not the case that - if one part of the UK splits off - that it keeps its share of the assets but loses the liabilities.
The reality is that it would be a part of the negotiation, just as pensions for Eurocrats were part of the negotiations between the EU and the UK.
But the precedent is that the departing state took on the liabilities, which was fair. I don't see any scenario where the UK government continues to pay pensions for Scottish citizens after independence. It really does become their problem.
Unless the pensioner has dual nationality, though that would be limited to people with an English parent I imagine.
Even then, I expect dual national to need England/Wales/NI residency to qualify. I think anyone voting for independence should come to terms with these simple facts. You should still do it anyway, but don't vote to leave the UK on the basis that the UK will continue to fund and independent Scotland in any way. Any party that proposes this will simply get voted out and any party which promises to end any legacy payments immediately and permanently will win.
So you are demanding to treay rUK nationals like terrorists just because they happen to live in Scotland?
You really do need to wind your neck in.
If you vote to depart the UK you will plunge Scotland into Depression and England into a very deep recession. And the whole nation will be torn apart and hurled into a decade of constitutional chaos. Again
Right now, I love Scotland. You are part of me, you are British. I am happy for us to continue to subsidise you, because you have subsidised us in the past, that's how unions work. We are brothers.
But if you vote to smash all this up? Hell yes, I will want you punished. I will want you to suffer. The idea I will vote for any government that promises to indulge this vandalism - with MY money - is absurd. The party that promises to make Scotland moan in pain will get my vote. Millions will do likewise.
Reckon with this, because it is true
I'm simply pointing out that the PBTories are actually saying that rUK subjects who happen to live in Scvotland should have their pensions withdrawn.
How does that make sense?
Your argument appears to be that on day 1 of an independent Scotland all pensions for Scottish residents would be paid by rUK, and Scottish taxpayers would have to pay nothing.
That's completely illogical.
It's magical thinking of the worst kind.
No, no - only rUK subjects who have retained rUK citizenship, like in Australia etc.
But I would think everyone in Scotland would initially still hold British passports wouldn't they? Or would everyone be forced to choose one or the other?
I think everybody ought to choose one or the other. We have far too much of this dual nationality nonsense. If Scots knew that after independence they would have to be Scottish or English-Wesh-Irish British it might help them to make up their minds about independence.
And after independence, they ought to be treated as foreigners, reporting at the police station from time to time to sign the necessary documents, and all that.
COLD - coldest average since 1922, third lowest since records began in 1884: FROSTY - most air frosts since records began in 1960; DRY - one of the driest Aprils on record; SUNNY
How can there be such a polling disparity, somebody help!
Sampling and methodology.
Reminds me of GE2017, Survation had it at as a 1% Tory lead, others had double digit leads.
A poll vindicating the mail against other polling is interesting but I think Opinuim tomorrow will be the test to see if this has credence
Funny, you didn't say that when you cited the YouGov polling in the last 24 hours.
You are far more an knowledgable on polls than I am but this is the first poll to show an effect from the last week. It is only fair to suggest it may be an outlier but maybe it isnt and tomorrow will be a good comparison
https://twitter.com/RoyChaudhuri/status/1388093905854418945 I know nothing about cricket, but had a fantastic time watching a Test at Edgbaston. It's mainly an excuse to sit in the sunshine and drink all day. Also, the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football...
"the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football..."
Check out the tailgating in the parking lots of US football stadiums. Esp. college football in the South and other places where the locals are SERIOUS about their cooking.
Personally recommend LSU games at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge.
You may have to bring your own pâté, but guarantee you can swap it for some andouille!
Try the Easter Monday point to point at Hackwood Park or the celebration of George III’s birthday at Windsor for really superior tailgating parties
IF an outsider turned up, and wanted to boil up an olympic-size cauldron full of crawfish OR roast a whole ox on a spit, would that be ok?
Both those things COULD be possible out in the parking lot, when LSU plays 'Bama in Death Valley.
They are more hard-boiled quail eggs and celeriac salt type events to be honest
Thought so. Would be Bubba & Tammy meet Jo & Dodo?
It's a British Overseas Territory and not part of the UK.
We should make it a constituent part of the UK
After that, Boris should look to EXPAND the UK, to change the narrative from secession.
Aquitaine. I want Aquitaine. Used to be ours. Nice climate, fine wines, decent food.
Do it, Boris
Reclaim Heligoland!
Thus making amends for the rank treason of Lord Salisbury & the Tories in selling out the loyal Heligolanders to the Kaiser back in 1890.
Heligoland was actually swapped with Germany for Zanzibar (now part of Tanzania).
Selling out the Heligolanders, for Zanzibar (which Brits already controlled) AND to curry favor with Kaiser Bill . . . by giving him a VERY strategic North Sea island on the eve of massive German naval expansion.
But it didn't do the German Navy much good during WW1. Viz. Jutland.
Heligoland.
Can anyone explain how we would defend it in WW1?
Or why, for that matter, not having it was a handicap. The WW1 blockade was not tight to the coast and because WW1 U-Boats were very heavily a coastal blockage would have been difficult. Plus minefields.
I'd say it was like the Channel Islands in WW2. In practice huge resources were wasted on it by the Germans, which caused little problem for the UK.
It's fairly simple (and that's not meant to be disrespectful).
First the analogy with the Channel Islands is false because of one critical difference, namely air power. The Channel Islands could not be defended because any British naval support force would have been subjected to massive German n airpower operating from occupied France. It would have been pulverised and the RAF would have faced the opposite of the Battle of Britain i.e. shot down pilots would have been difficult to recover. In WW 1, airpower was very limited. Sure, the Germans could have sent over Zeppilins but they would have had limited impact and would have been vulnerable.
Second, Germany did not have a major U-boat fleet at the start of WW 1 and, in any event, coming out of ports like Whiliemshaven would have been vulnerable to the sea lanes being mined.
Third, and also a major factor, the Grand Fleet was bigger than the High Seas Fleet.
Look at what happened at the Battle of Heligoland Blight. The British came over, sank several light cruisers and then buggered off. The Germans couldn't do anything about it.
I don't think a 3 hour ambush raid and retreat on outlying patrols in the first week of WW1 is really comparable with defending a tiny island 2-3 hours' sailing time from the enemy's main naval base for four years.
Heligoland in British hands would have been starved out in a very few months.
The Grand Fleet spent year 1 of WW1 sailing up and down on the other side of Ireland mainly because Scapa Flow was not sufficiently well defended against torpedo attacks, so nervous was Jellicoe.
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Yours truly agrees with you on this point, and ditto for US Democrats.
Do NOT have to embrace racism and xenophobia. Just act like Average White People are people too.
My daughter has just been forced to read a deeply disturbing book at school
All about a black race car and a white race car who have a race… but when the black car wins the race committee change the runs to make it harder for him to win next year…
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Out of interest, what are these peculiarly working-class values that Labour despises?
Speaking just of England, (no idea how to comprehend W and S) the question can't be quite that simple, for if it were Tories would be romping home in Bootle and Knowsley and they aren't, quite the reverse. A correct answer - whatever that may be - needs to take account of Mansfield and Bootle and so on. There is no single working class. It seems to me that for the moment Labour hot spots need to be looked at in terms of: Strongly urban working class; Strongly BAME; Polly Toynbee territory/students. Where these are strongly present, singly or mixed up, Labour scores heavily. Where they are not Labour hold vanishingly few seats, and all those they do hold - even ones like Barnsley East - are threatened.
It looks as if the 'Working class' is a number of different species - at the very least major urban and smaller towns, with different attitudes. This ends up with a map looking like Labour belong, like red squirrels, to enclaves not connected to each other. Labour hold startlingly few of the Ipswich type seats for example.
A rather ignored factor in the red wall is urban / rural. Ex-mining villages are often part of semi-rural constituencies. As mining recedes into the distance to be replaced, often by large out of town distribution warehouses, the question becomes - how are these constituencies actually so different from similar such working towns in the South that also often vote Tory.
My take on Hartlepool - that looks quite heavily like a town constituency to me. Yes, there is a red wall element here for sure, but Hartlepool's town nature favours Labour somewhat. It's no absolute guarantee (let's cite Heywood & Middleton here as an exception), but typical red wall seats are rarely full on towny.
Talking of returning to normal, I have today been for a long walk around Kinder Scout, followed by - for the first time since early October - a visit to a pub. The Pack Horse, in Hayfield, which I would very much recommend for both beer and food. AND I've also been out for a meal with the wife and kids. A good day.
One of my favorite places to hole up in the UK, is the official hotel at Haddington at southern end of Peak District. Fine old aristo pile deeded to National Trust by Duke of Devonshire, has some nice small private rooms, good cafeteria and great environs. Including spots on the River Dee where Izzak Walton used to go fishing.
BTW, back home in WVA when I was a kid the Izzak Walton League was a BIG deal with a very active local presence.
39% say Carrie Symonds has too much power in Downing Street, 22% say no.
Does Charles recall what Mrs Masham's approval rating was, at a similar stage of HER backstairs influence?
Is backstairs influence like the Singapore Grip?
Traditionally, it meant ready access to the king/queen's "closet". Does that answer your question?
If I remember correctly it was the ability of those closest to the crown to use the servants’ access to get directly to the royal person rather than have to wait in the antechambers with everyone else
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Too horrible to contemplate. Hopefully, the majority of Scots will do the right thing and vote for Unionist parties.
Edit, have you wargamed the scenario where support for Independence goes down to 40% and Boris says, well, its now or never, how about it?
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Out of interest, what are these peculiarly working-class values that Labour despises?
Speaking just of England, (no idea how to comprehend W and S) the question can't be quite that simple, for if it were Tories would be romping home in Bootle and Knowsley and they aren't, quite the reverse. A correct answer - whatever that may be - needs to take account of Mansfield and Bootle and so on. There is no single working class. It seems to me that for the moment Labour hot spots need to be looked at in terms of: Strongly urban working class; Strongly BAME; Polly Toynbee territory/students. Where these are strongly present, singly or mixed up, Labour scores heavily. Where they are not Labour hold vanishingly few seats, and all those they do hold - even ones like Barnsley East - are threatened.
It looks as if the 'Working class' is a number of different species - at the very least major urban and smaller towns, with different attitudes. This ends up with a map looking like Labour belong, like red squirrels, to enclaves not connected to each other. Labour hold startlingly few of the Ipswich type seats for example.
A rather ignored factor in the red wall is urban / rural. Ex-mining villages are often part of semi-rural constituencies. As mining recedes into the distance to be replaced, often by large out of town distribution warehouses, the question becomes - how are these constituencies actually so different from similar such working towns in the South that also often vote Tory.
My take on Hartlepool - that looks quite heavily like a town constituency to me. Yes, there is a red wall element here for sure, but Hartlepool's town nature favours Labour somewhat. It's no absolute guarantee (let's cite Heywood & Middleton here as an exception), but typical red wall seats are rarely full on towny.
Yes, I think that true. The Purple Wall seats that Labour lost were the marginally more prosperous towns.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Too horrible to contemplate. Hopefully, the majority of Scots will do the right thing and vote for Unionist parties.
Edit, have you wargamed the scenario where support for Independence goes down to 40% and Boris says, well, its now or never, how about it?
We have, that's the one that scares me the most.
Boris Johnson thinks he can win Indyref2, he wants that on his CV to outdo/equal Dave, we've named this the 'Pearl Harbor' scenario because as strategic blunders go it would be up there with the Japanese attack on Hawaii.
I fear Gove may also egg him on or see himself as the PM to keep Scotland in the Union.
It would explain the recent actions by Cummings, who in the words of Dave, was Gove's psychopath.
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
You want to have your pint in the hospital?
In my first job on a geriatric ward, we had Sherry, Whisky and Brandy on the drug trolley, served as an aperterif. It came in medicine bottles, unbonded. The Sherry was pretty dire, the whisky tolerable and the brandy reasonable. We used to have small tins of stout too.
It perked quite a few of the oldies up.
"Bless you, doctor!" Good for what ails ye, in moderation.
Not that medico are noted for THAT when it comes to self-medication . . .
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Yours truly agrees with you on this point, and ditto for US Democrats.
Do NOT have to embrace racism and xenophobia. Just act like Average White People are people too.
My daughter has just been forced to read a deeply disturbing book at school
All about a black race car and a white race car who have a race… but when the black car wins the race committee change the runs to make it harder for him to win next year…
This series’ trailer for Line of Duty intercut the tagline “Lies Cost Lives” with clips of Hastings complaining about “a bare-faced liar promoted to our highest office” and asking: “When did we stop caring about honesty and integrity?”
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Too horrible to contemplate. Hopefully, the majority of Scots will do the right thing and vote for Unionist parties.
Edit, have you wargamed the scenario where support for Independence goes down to 40% and Boris says, well, its now or never, how about it?
We have, that's the one that scares me the most.
Boris Johnson thinks he can win Indyref2, he wants that on his CV to outdo/equal Dave.
I fear Gove may also egg him on or see himself as the PM to keep Scotland in the Union.
It would explain the recent actions by Cummings, who in the words of Dave, was Gove's psychopath.
Its not impossible. What no sane Scot can surely want is a repeat of the neverendum that went on for more than 2 years before 2014. Even if Nicola says it will be in the second half of the Parliament the campaigning, the damage, the paralysis and the division would all start again the week after the election. The temptation to say, no you don't get to do that again would be high.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Wargame the situation where the unionist boycott is only partial in effect and it's even messier.
Yes. In 2014, the Yes vote was 37.8% of the electorate. If that same proportion of the electorate vote Yes and a Unionist boycott is only partial, so Yes wins by 2:1, then the turnout will be 56.7%, which might be higher than the turnout at this year's Holyrood elections (it was 55.8% in 2016, second only to the 58.4% turnout in 1999).
The turnout in the 2014 referendum of 84.59% was really exceptional, particularly when compared to the Brexit referendum of 72.21%.
https://twitter.com/RoyChaudhuri/status/1388093905854418945 I know nothing about cricket, but had a fantastic time watching a Test at Edgbaston. It's mainly an excuse to sit in the sunshine and drink all day. Also, the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football...
"the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football..."
Check out the tailgating in the parking lots of US football stadiums. Esp. college football in the South and other places where the locals are SERIOUS about their cooking.
Personally recommend LSU games at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge.
You may have to bring your own pâté, but guarantee you can swap it for some andouille!
Try the Easter Monday point to point at Hackwood Park or the celebration of George III’s birthday at Windsor for really superior tailgating parties
IF an outsider turned up, and wanted to boil up an olympic-size cauldron full of crawfish OR roast a whole ox on a spit, would that be ok?
Both those things COULD be possible out in the parking lot, when LSU plays 'Bama in Death Valley.
They are more hard-boiled quail eggs and celeriac salt type events to be honest
Thought so. Would be Bubba & Tammy meet Jo & Dodo?
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seats and we're back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
James Melville Cherry blossom @JamesMelville · 4h The Tories now have a 19-point lead over Labour with working class voters. Something has gone badly wrong here. The current messaging from the left simply doesn’t resonate with normal decent working class people. It’s so frustrating.
While many on here will disagree, Labour gives the impression of hating the values of many working class voters, and despising those voters. Why would anyone vote for someone that openly shows their contempt for you?
Out of interest, what are these peculiarly working-class values that Labour despises?
Speaking just of England, (no idea how to comprehend W and S) the question can't be quite that simple, for if it were Tories would be romping home in Bootle and Knowsley and they aren't, quite the reverse. A correct answer - whatever that may be - needs to take account of Mansfield and Bootle and so on. There is no single working class. It seems to me that for the moment Labour hot spots need to be looked at in terms of: Strongly urban working class; Strongly BAME; Polly Toynbee territory/students. Where these are strongly present, singly or mixed up, Labour scores heavily. Where they are not Labour hold vanishingly few seats, and all those they do hold - even ones like Barnsley East - are threatened.
It looks as if the 'Working class' is a number of different species - at the very least major urban and smaller towns, with different attitudes. This ends up with a map looking like Labour belong, like red squirrels, to enclaves not connected to each other. Labour hold startlingly few of the Ipswich type seats for example.
A rather ignored factor in the red wall is urban / rural. Ex-mining villages are often part of semi-rural constituencies. As mining recedes into the distance to be replaced, often by large out of town distribution warehouses, the question becomes - how are these constituencies actually so different from similar such working towns in the South that also often vote Tory.
My take on Hartlepool - that looks quite heavily like a town constituency to me. Yes, there is a red wall element here for sure, but Hartlepool's town nature favours Labour somewhat. It's no absolute guarantee (let's cite Heywood & Middleton here as an exception), but typical red wall seats are rarely full on towny.
Darlington is a town constituency gained by the Conservatives in 2019.
I believe it to a rather more affluent than Hartlepool though.
Your point on the urban/rural nature is good.
I remember comparing the demographics of Rother Valley and South Holland here about a decade ago.
They were almost identical but their electoral history certainly wasn't. Well Rother Valley now has a 13% Conservative majority.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
Boris Johnson is prepared to take the SNP to the Supreme Court to stop them unilaterally holding a second Scottish independence referendum should they win next week’s Holyrood elections.
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Absurd story. Sturgeon has already said that we cannot have the referendum until the second half of this coming Parliamentary term because of Covid. Whatever arguments are used in 2023 Covid is unlikely to be one of them.
One of the things we've war gamed at work is this scenario.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
Wargame the situation where the unionist boycott is only partial in effect and it's even messier.
Yes. In 2014, the Yes vote was 37.8% of the electorate. If that same proportion of the electorate vote Yes and a Unionist boycott is only partial, so Yes wins by 2:1, then the turnout will be 56.7%, which might be higher than the turnout at this year's Holyrood elections (it was 55.8% in 2016, second only to the 58.4% turnout in 1999).
The turnout in the 2014 referendum of 84.59% was really exceptional, particularly when compared to the Brexit referendum of 72.21%.
The really exceptional thing is that people were queuing to vote when the polling stations opened at 7. By noon our percentage turnouts were almost identical to what they were at 10pm at night. Practically everyone who was going to had already voted.
Politico.com - 'Disgusting' robocall accuses Texas candidate Wright of causing husband's death Wright supporters reported receiving the calls the day before the special election in Texas' 6th District.
Texas Republican congressional candidate Susan Wright is seeking help from federal law enforcement the day before her special election, after supporters reported receiving robocalls that accused her of being responsible for the death of her late husband.
Wright’s campaign reached out to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice on Friday after discovering robocalls baselessly alleging that she had “murdered” her husband, the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright. Wright is running in the special election to succeed Wright, who passed away in February after being diagnosed with coronavirus.
Wright aides say they found out about the robocalls on Friday morning, a day before Saturday's crowded all-party primary.
"This is illegal, immoral, and wrong. There’s not a sewer too deep that some politicians won’t plumb," Wright said in a statement.
A female voice begins the minute-long robocall by saying that Wright “murdered her husband,” and that “she’s now running for Congress to cover it up.” The robocalls do not have a "paid-for" attribution saying who is paying for the attacks.
The robocall then claims that “according to confidential sources,” Wright “obtained a $1 million life insurance policy on the life of her husband…six months before his death.” It then says that Wright “tearfully confided in a nurse that she had purposely contracted the coronavirus.”
It adds that the hospital “has made a formal criminal referral to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and they have now opened a formal criminal inquiry into the matter,” before concluding: “It is clear that the voters of Texas’ 6th Congressional District deserve to know the truth about Susan Wright and her involvement in the death of her husband.” . . .
comment - Politico article includes audio of actual robocall.
Note that this is a TYPICAL GOP campaign tactic, used over and over and over all over the US.
https://twitter.com/RoyChaudhuri/status/1388093905854418945 I know nothing about cricket, but had a fantastic time watching a Test at Edgbaston. It's mainly an excuse to sit in the sunshine and drink all day. Also, the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football...
"the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football..."
Check out the tailgating in the parking lots of US football stadiums. Esp. college football in the South and other places where the locals are SERIOUS about their cooking.
Personally recommend LSU games at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge.
You may have to bring your own pâté, but guarantee you can swap it for some andouille!
Try the Easter Monday point to point at Hackwood Park or the celebration of George III’s birthday at Windsor for really superior tailgating parties
IF an outsider turned up, and wanted to boil up an olympic-size cauldron full of crawfish OR roast a whole ox on a spit, would that be ok?
Both those things COULD be possible out in the parking lot, when LSU plays 'Bama in Death Valley.
They are more hard-boiled quail eggs and celeriac salt type events to be honest
Thought so. Would be Bubba & Tammy meet Jo & Dodo?
I don’t get the reference?
Just US redneck vs UK aristo nicknames. Though reckon there's a Lord or two called Bubba by his intimates, and certainly more than one DoDo in the backwoods of Louisiana.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
MI5 won’t let it get that far.
MI5 are chumps, the SIS is where all the top spies work.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
58% say Boris Johnson acted improperly over the flat renovations, 26% say no.
But BJ still 8 points ahead on best PM.
The two aren't contradictory. I can easily think Person A is a better PM than Person B, while simultaneously holding the view that Person A has ethical issues.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
MI5 won’t let it get that far.
MI5 are chumps, the SIS is where all the top spies work.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
MI5 won’t let it get that far.
MI5 are chumps, the SIS is where all the top spies work.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
MI5 won’t let it get that far.
MI5 are chumps, the SIS is where all the top spies work.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
So the SIS is somewhat misnamed then? Devious.
Yes, especially when they have such a conspicuous head office.
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seat and where back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
MI5 won’t let it get that far.
MI5 are chumps, the SIS is where all the top spies work.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
Pity they went to a second rate University.
No you're confusing them with Arthur Wynn and his mob.
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
You want to have your pint in the hospital?
In my first job on a geriatric ward, we had Sherry, Whisky and Brandy on the drug trolley, served as an aperterif. It came in medicine bottles, unbonded. The Sherry was pretty dire, the whisky tolerable and the brandy reasonable. We used to have small tins of stout too.
It perked quite a few of the oldies up.
The Brompton Cocktail
Heroin, Cocaine, and Cognac
Proved too popular with terminal cancer patients, so the doctors banned it. You must have your suffering, as ordered. It was ruled out as too addictive (for dying people) on these grounds, and I quote:
The opioid provides nearly instant pain relief and calm, relaxing feelings Cocaine, a stimulant, produces feelings of euphoria and well-being Alcohol, a depressant, also produces anti-anxiety types of feelings and slows brain and motor functions
https://twitter.com/RoyChaudhuri/status/1388093905854418945 I know nothing about cricket, but had a fantastic time watching a Test at Edgbaston. It's mainly an excuse to sit in the sunshine and drink all day. Also, the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football...
"the people sat next to us offered us some pâté, which never happens at the football..."
Check out the tailgating in the parking lots of US football stadiums. Esp. college football in the South and other places where the locals are SERIOUS about their cooking.
Personally recommend LSU games at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge.
You may have to bring your own pâté, but guarantee you can swap it for some andouille!
Try the Easter Monday point to point at Hackwood Park or the celebration of George III’s birthday at Windsor for really superior tailgating parties
IF an outsider turned up, and wanted to boil up an olympic-size cauldron full of crawfish OR roast a whole ox on a spit, would that be ok?
Both those things COULD be possible out in the parking lot, when LSU plays 'Bama in Death Valley.
They are more hard-boiled quail eggs and celeriac salt type events to be honest
Thought so. Would be Bubba & Tammy meet Jo & Dodo?
I don’t get the reference?
Just US redneck vs UK aristo nicknames. Though reckon there's a Lord or two called Bubba by his intimates, and certainly more than one DoDo in the backwoods of Louisiana.
Was once told of an American girl at a recruitment agency to get a posh job in London. Kimberley is such a common name. Have you tried Tiffany for example?
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seats and we're back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
Just because an indyref2 can be held does not mean the UK government has to take the slightest note of the result as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
Not only would Unionists boycott it but this Tory government would correctly completely ignore it and take no notice of the outcome just as our cousins the PP in Spain completely ignored the Nationalist victory in the 2017 Catalan referendum
On topic, I think that net gains and losses of seats are something of a red herring.
It is the equivalent national vote share figures that are meaningful. This will show whether the opinion poll lead for the Tories is backed up by real votes in real elections.
This series’ trailer for Line of Duty intercut the tagline “Lies Cost Lives” with clips of Hastings complaining about “a bare-faced liar promoted to our highest office” and asking: “When did we stop caring about honesty and integrity?”
Ninewells hospital, a hospital that covers not just all of Dundee but most of Tayside, no longer has a single Covid patient. And I am still not allowed a pint inside!
You want to have your pint in the hospital?
In my first job on a geriatric ward, we had Sherry, Whisky and Brandy on the drug trolley, served as an aperterif. It came in medicine bottles, unbonded. The Sherry was pretty dire, the whisky tolerable and the brandy reasonable. We used to have small tins of stout too.
It perked quite a few of the oldies up.
The Brompton Cocktail
Heroin, Cocaine, and Cognac
Proved too popular with terminal cancer patients, so the doctors banned it. You must have your suffering, as ordered. It was ruled out as too addictive (for dying people) on these grounds, and I quote:
The opioid provides nearly instant pain relief and calm, relaxing feelings Cocaine, a stimulant, produces feelings of euphoria and well-being Alcohol, a depressant, also produces anti-anxiety types of feelings and slows brain and motor functions
NEW: Survation poll for the Mail finds Tory lead down to one point over Labour (Con 39, Lab 38) as Boris Johnson’s popularity suffers in the wake of the Downing Street flat affair
Not a great result from the Tory perspective, a 1% Tory lead if repeated in the county council elections would see a 5% swing to Labour and the loss of a number of Tory county councillors.
Though would not see much change in the districts on 2016.
58% say Boris Johnson acted improperly over the flat renovations, 26% say no.
But BJ still 8 points ahead on best PM.
The two aren't contradictory. I can easily think Person A is a better PM than Person B, while simultaneously holding the view that Person A has ethical issues.
Back during the expenses scandal I remember Nick Palmer got a 100% clean rating.
I couldn't help thinking "its very admirable Nick but you boring bastard".
Re: TX CD06 Special Election tomorrow, Saturday May 1, reckon the reason Trumpsky endorsed the widow (the target of the foul robos claiming she murdered her hubby) is because the smarter among the half-wits advising him think she's gonna win anyway.
BTW, the Republican cretins who make a living with anonymous slander calls are just as happy using them against fellow Republicans as against Democrats.
For example, during her first campaign for governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley was target of such calls, alleging she was engaged in marital affairs and worse. She won the GOP primary anyway, and the rest as they say is history.
Incidentally, the SC politico and favorite "pollster" of a prominent PBer is renowned for his robo-callery.
With zero evidence of course, that he would EVER conceive of stooping so low for political gain.
Looks like the story of Covid-19 will be a nasty first wave, hitting the West worst, a really nasty 2nd wave, hitting the West and LatAm, then a 3rd wave almost as bad as the 2nd, but shifting, somewhat, to Asia
Presumably there will be multiple extra waves, but they will be like the aftershocks you get after a terrible earthquake. Relatively minor (one hopes), but the odd destabilised building topples to the ground
One of my favourite scenarios that has been wargamed.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seats and we're back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
Just because an indyref2 can be held does not mean the UK government has to take the slightest note of the result as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
Not only would Unionists boycott it but this Tory government would correctly completely ignore it and take no notice of the outcome just as our cousins the PP in Spain completely ignored the Nationalist victory in the 2017 Catalan referendum
And make the SNP pay for the costs of the fake plebiscite.
NEW: Survation poll for the Mail finds Tory lead down to one point over Labour (Con 39, Lab 38) as Boris Johnson’s popularity suffers in the wake of the Downing Street flat affair
Not a great result from the Tory perspective, a 1% Tory lead if repeated in the county council elections would see a 5% swing to Labour and the loss of a number of Tory county councillors.
Though would not see much change in the districts on 2016.
Labour still a point behind despite endless wallpaper paste being thrown over the government. Suspect things will settle down to Tory +5 soon enough, and in any case postal votes are baked in.
Storm in a teacup: Anabob’s Golden Rule remains: midterm polls are a waste of pixels.
Looks like the story of Covid-19 will be a nasty first wave, hitting the West worst, a really nasty 2nd wave, hitting the West and LatAm, then a 3rd wave almost as bad as the 2nd, but shifting, somewhat, to Asia
Presumably there will be multiple extra waves, but they will be like the aftershocks you get after a terrible earthquake. Relatively minor (one hopes), but the odd destabilised building topples to the ground
Dunno. India is almost 50% of new cases. If that keeps on going up the rest of the world has some heavy lifting to do. Smile. You're welcome.
Comments
'I don't think we are anywhere near the end of Labour."
The final comment before the Survation poll dropped.
Chapeau!
Anyway must really head off to bed!
The Government has legal advice dating back to 2011 that argues the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.
Government advisers are gearing up to deploy a “not now” argument to any request for a referendum, pointing to the Covid-19 pandemic that the country is still facing.
But they believe that position can hold for years, given the point of total recovery – on everything from the economy to court backlogs and education – is impossible to predict.
Mr Johnson’s Government is getting ready not just to reject a request for permission to hold “indyref2” but also to enter a court battle should the SNP then attempt to hold a unilateral vote.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/30/boris-johnson-prepared-take-snp-supreme-court-stop-second-independence/
I expect the SCOTUK to laugh at the argument that Covid-19 is a reason to say now is not the time for Indyref2 because we went for a potential no deal (ie a material change to the constitutional settlement at the peak of Covid-19.)
Typical of a poll like this to be released on the day I confidently make my prediction that the vaccines will see the Tories romp home at the next GE.
This must mean things are getting back to normal.
1) The courts do allow an advisory referendum to be held.
2) The Unionist vote boycotts this referendum
3) Yes wins a landslide on 35% of the vote
4) A constitutional quagmire begins that makes the legal and parliamentary fun over Brexit look like the good old days.
It was twenty times that at the February peak.
I find it distasteful that so many people are willing to make serious accusations of this nature without proof. It’s corrosive to our political culture
But Scottish plebiscites with a turnout threshold is a fun history.
People queuing overnight to buy houses in Aberdare:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56941162
And our Nick is a Class A, Blue (or rather Red) Ribbon super-canvasser.
Sure that he's VERY careful NOT to be judgmental let alone crass. Judging from his PB commentary.
AND I've also been out for a meal with the wife and kids.
A good day.
Admittedly that is a couple of generations ago but it is smack in the middle of that era of the post war American Dream which still holds so much power in the American psyche.
All about a black race car and a white race car who have a race… but when the black car wins the race committee change the runs to make it harder for him to win next year…
The courts will ask the UK government what they do consider to be the trigger for Indyref2 (both in terms of vote shares and seats) as well at time.
The UK government may also be arguing that a referendum and/or devolved Parliaments are bound by previous parliaments which creates an awkward precedent at Westminster.
But for shits and giggles this court hearing maybe taking around the time Sinn Fein win the popular vote in Stormont elections which may trigger a calls for an Irish unity referendum where the UK government may be arguing contradictory things.
It perked quite a few of the oldies up.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/russia-records-more-than-400000-excess-deaths-during-pandemic-reuters-2021-04-30/
And after independence, they ought to be treated as foreigners, reporting at the police station from time to time to sign the necessary documents, and all that.
COLD - coldest average since 1922, third lowest since records began in 1884:
FROSTY - most air frosts since records began in 1960;
DRY - one of the driest Aprils on record;
SUNNY
Heligoland in British hands would have been starved out in a very few months.
The Grand Fleet spent year 1 of WW1 sailing up and down on the other side of Ireland mainly because Scapa Flow was not sufficiently well defended against torpedo attacks, so nervous was Jellicoe.
My take on Hartlepool - that looks quite heavily like a town constituency to me. Yes, there is a red wall element here for sure, but Hartlepool's town nature favours Labour somewhat. It's no absolute guarantee (let's cite Heywood & Middleton here as an exception), but typical red wall seats are rarely full on towny.
BTW, back home in WVA when I was a kid the Izzak Walton League was a BIG deal with a very active local presence.
Which means the wall paper stripper in action at Number 10 again.
Edit, have you wargamed the scenario where support for Independence goes down to 40% and Boris says, well, its now or never, how about it?
I am still on the Tories for Hartlepool though.
Boris Johnson thinks he can win Indyref2, he wants that on his CV to outdo/equal Dave, we've named this the 'Pearl Harbor' scenario because as strategic blunders go it would be up there with the Japanese attack on Hawaii.
I fear Gove may also egg him on or see himself as the PM to keep Scotland in the Union.
It would explain the recent actions by Cummings, who in the words of Dave, was Gove's psychopath.
Not that medico are noted for THAT when it comes to self-medication . . .
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/reviews/0692786503/ref=cm_cr_unknown?filterByStar=one_star&pageNumber=1
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1388250485900156931?s=19
The turnout in the 2014 referendum of 84.59% was really exceptional, particularly when compared to the Brexit referendum of 72.21%.
2021 - SNP/Anti Union Parties win a majority at Holyrood
2022 - The courts say a lawful section 30 must be held, and a Unionist boycott cannot invalidate the result.
2023 -Indyref2 held and Yes wins.
2024/25 - The Holyrood elections are held around the time Scexit deal is being negotiated and the old pro Union parties stand on independent manifestos pledging to keep Scotland in the Union/a referendum on the deal with remaining in the UK an option on the ballot.
The Pro Union parties win a majority in votes and seats and we're back in this infinite loop of neverendums.
I believe it to a rather more affluent than Hartlepool though.
Your point on the urban/rural nature is good.
I remember comparing the demographics of Rother Valley and South Holland here about a decade ago.
They were almost identical but their electoral history certainly wasn't. Well Rother Valley now has a 13% Conservative majority.
Wright supporters reported receiving the calls the day before the special election in Texas' 6th District.
Texas Republican congressional candidate Susan Wright is seeking help from federal law enforcement the day before her special election, after supporters reported receiving robocalls that accused her of being responsible for the death of her late husband.
Wright’s campaign reached out to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice on Friday after discovering robocalls baselessly alleging that she had “murdered” her husband, the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright. Wright is running in the special election to succeed Wright, who passed away in February after being diagnosed with coronavirus.
Wright aides say they found out about the robocalls on Friday morning, a day before Saturday's crowded all-party primary.
"This is illegal, immoral, and wrong. There’s not a sewer too deep that some politicians won’t plumb," Wright said in a statement.
A female voice begins the minute-long robocall by saying that Wright “murdered her husband,” and that “she’s now running for Congress to cover it up.” The robocalls do not have a "paid-for" attribution saying who is paying for the attacks.
The robocall then claims that “according to confidential sources,” Wright “obtained a $1 million life insurance policy on the life of her husband…six months before his death.” It then says that Wright “tearfully confided in a nurse that she had purposely contracted the coronavirus.”
It adds that the hospital “has made a formal criminal referral to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and they have now opened a formal criminal inquiry into the matter,” before concluding: “It is clear that the voters of Texas’ 6th Congressional District deserve to know the truth about Susan Wright and her involvement in the death of her husband.” . . .
comment - Politico article includes audio of actual robocall.
Note that this is a TYPICAL GOP campaign tactic, used over and over and over all over the US.
Burgess, Philby, and Cairncross are some of the world's most famous spies.
I blame H and the OCG.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/dreaming-spies-the-inside-story-of-the-kgb-at-oxford
Heroin, Cocaine, and Cognac
Proved too popular with terminal cancer patients, so the doctors banned it. You must have your suffering, as ordered. It was ruled out as too addictive (for dying people) on these grounds, and I quote:
The opioid provides nearly instant pain relief and calm, relaxing feelings
Cocaine, a stimulant, produces feelings of euphoria and well-being
Alcohol, a depressant, also produces anti-anxiety types of feelings and slows brain and motor functions
https://vertavahealth.com/blog/brompton-cocktail-addiction/
Yes, how evil and corrosive it is, to have those feelings, as you die in agony, from cancer
Kimberley is such a common name. Have you tried Tiffany for example?
Not only would Unionists boycott it but this Tory government would correctly completely ignore it and take no notice of the outcome just as our cousins the PP in Spain completely ignored the Nationalist victory in the 2017 Catalan referendum
It is the equivalent national vote share figures that are meaningful. This will show whether the opinion poll lead for the Tories is backed up by real votes in real elections.
My guess is 'yes'.
When is about 'our side' and not 'their side'.
Don't believe me ?
Then let me mention tuition fees.
Though would not see much change in the districts on 2016.
Labour would also comfortably hold Hartlepool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1388213083731017732
I couldn't help thinking "its very admirable Nick but you boring bastard".
BTW, the Republican cretins who make a living with anonymous slander calls are just as happy using them against fellow Republicans as against Democrats.
For example, during her first campaign for governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley was target of such calls, alleging she was engaged in marital affairs and worse. She won the GOP primary anyway, and the rest as they say is history.
Incidentally, the SC politico and favorite "pollster" of a prominent PBer is renowned for his robo-callery.
With zero evidence of course, that he would EVER conceive of stooping so low for political gain.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Looks like the story of Covid-19 will be a nasty first wave, hitting the West worst, a really nasty 2nd wave, hitting the West and LatAm, then a 3rd wave almost as bad as the 2nd, but shifting, somewhat, to Asia
Presumably there will be multiple extra waves, but they will be like the aftershocks you get after a terrible earthquake. Relatively minor (one hopes), but the odd destabilised building topples to the ground
Then I remembered I'm 54 and have given up drugs.
If we can then lockdown is truly over
Postals already in
Storm in a teacup: Anabob’s Golden Rule remains: midterm polls are a waste of pixels.
India is almost 50% of new cases. If that keeps on going up the rest of the world has some heavy lifting to do.
Smile. You're welcome.