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Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections – politicalbetting.com
Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections – politicalbetting.com
Next Thursday, I think I’m safe in asserting, we will see the largest set of local elections ever to take place in England. This is because the group of seats that should have been voted on last year had their elections postponed and of course this year we have the 2017 cohort. On top of that we have several hundred local by-elections which have been delayed again because of the pandemic ban on election activity in England.
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"Latest YouGov has the Tories extending their lead: Con 44% ( - ) Labour 33% ( -1).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5wmdyo10ta/TheTimes_Voting_Intention_Track_210428__W.pdf
Worth noting that when the 2017 local election seats were fought, the Tories also had an 11% lead over Labour on the actual result - albeit on 38%-27%. If Labour are to make any gains, they look to be from LibDems (7% now versus 18% actual in 2017). Labour will stand still as against the Tories at best (note YouGov has 3% for Refuk, but as most seats won't have a candidate that could add a point or two to the Tory lead).
Those seats last fought in 2016 could prove to be horrible for Labour, where they actually finished one point ahead of the Tories on 31%, Tories on 30%, LibDems 15%, UKIP 12%. Looking at projections for these seats - where they won 1326 Councillors to the Tories 842 - may be where the gloom in Labour's internal machine is coming from.
Starmer could be down 200-250 councillors after next Thursday."
In the district elections the Tories only had a 3% lead in 2016 so could even make gains from Labour in the district elections, the LDs are unchanged from what they were on in 2016 but the Tories could still make gains from the LDs where there was a UKIP candidate in 2016 and will not be next week
Brexit is done
Brexit means we can do trade deals
Brexit: Anger over government's failure to get Norway fishing deal - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56940914
Returning along the A55 it was wonderful to see the number of caravans, campervans, and holiday traffic coming back again and great for our tourism in North Wales
At the same time traveling out of Wales were Irish HGVs, obviously from a recent ferry docking at Holyhead, and to be fair the volume seemed much as normal.
Getting nearer Llandudno, the fairways on the golf course, freshly mown, were full of golfers
It was as if we were witnessing a reawakening from hibernation and it was a joyful sight
I would very surprised if Boris and HMG do not get a bounce in next week's elections as the feel good factor returns, and I very much doubt minds will be on the wallpaper in his flat
In fact even on the media reporting it seems just one particular limited company, with a rather pretentious name, with one large trawler, that seems to be doing the complaining.
I'm wondering who does more trawling - the Kirkella, or you looking for things to whinge about?
'Alderson puts it bluntly: “I fear the Edinburgh Festival is being driven out of Scotland. It’s leaving Edinburgh.”'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/theatre/what-to-see/nicola-sturgeons-disgraceful-two-metre-rule-threatens-cultural/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr&onwardjourney=web-4346-morestories_variation
The sexual harassment and general depravity, the tax dodging, the hypocrisy over green issues, etc etc etc....but its all ok, we gave the best director Oscar to a "woman of colour"....so we are the good guys, sorry should check their pronouns first.
Brexit is going “8/10” for the fishing industry, she says (Confusingly, she’s using 10, rather than zero, to indicate the worst possible outcome).
And your lovely comments about vaccinations and the palpable relief is so true.
All I care about right now is that the Gov't continue this fantastic vaccine rollout, that nothing stops it and, with it, the return of our freedoms.
I will care about other things again some day, I'm sure.
What is the sequence with which results will come through? Most County seats are counting on Friday, I believe. So Hartlepool/Mayors/some district seats late Thursday, Counties and other districts Friday, Scotland late Friday?
I am absolutely certain self driving cars are only 5 years away
https://twitter.com/moyix/status/1367575109305794563?s=19
Not. A. Chance.
The limitations of current AI techniques and alogorithms are too vast. Maybe for Highway cruising trucks but inner city taxi's? No way. No how.
Advances in medical procedures are amazing though he faces upto 3 months rehabilitation
And yes vaccination has been a world leading success and for that Boris deserves congratulations from us all
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56941544
But for a lot of journeys automated steering while on a motorway will make those journeys a lot more pleasant.
https://smarkets.com/event/42195394/politics/uk/by-elections/chesham-and-amersham-by-election
Personally I've got the same vehicle I bought new a decade ago. Its a very well built vehicle that has lasted very well, and I made the decision years ago that I wasn't going to replace it with another petrol vehicle unless I had to, so I will either run it into the ground, or until I replace it with an electric one. So I have to pay fuel, maintenance costs, insurance etc - but that's a fraction of the cost of if I paid private hire vehicles to take me everywhere I go.
If I was to replace this vehicle with another 60-reg vehicle it wouldn't cost much in the way of capital.
I've topped up a bit, but I've no confidence in calling this one.
Listening to a reporter on the ground, she expects turnout to be low. Which party will this favour?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Madrilenian_regional_election
Which I know is something that MalcolmG is going to argue isn't the case but the reality is the oil has gone and Scotland has little else...
But you know my feelings here. This should be a Con win and I personally don't think Lab at 2.7 is value.
If they wish to control their own destiny, if the economics is neutral, then they should do so. We shouldn't be spending our money to bribe them to stay in a union they don't want for other reasons.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-party-property-developer-boris-johnson-conservative-donors-a9588381.html
Not much sign of it in my area. Received a few leaflets from the Tories, a couple from Labour, no others. On my road there's not many placards advertising parties - the house nearby that permanently flies a Unite the Union flag has a Vote Labour placard on its fence. Not seen any others.
At the last general election there were many more placards. Kinabalu might be interested to know that last time the houses that fly Union Jack flags mostly but not all had Tory placards at the General Election. None of them have placards so far, only the Unite flag flying garden one does.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14982 has some great charts that shows the type of information the Better Together side needs to ensure everyone in Scotland fully comprehends and understands (basically independence means losing a lot of the sweeties such as free university and prescriptions).
The PM says he has now "covered" the costs. Odd word that - "covered".
Maybe what has happened is that the entire sum has been paid by the annual £30k allowance - using unused annual allowances from previous years and years to come. The original donor has been repaid from that sum. So the entire cost has come from the taxpayer but using the annual allowance the PM has for his flat.
The PM has not paid anything himself. He has simply covered the costs out of his annual allowance. The taxpayer has not been charged anything more than they would have been had the allowance been used up every year.
This would explain the tortured refusals to explain everything simply - not just because it looks greedy to blow a 5-year budget in one go but also because it looks bad to have to repay the original rich Tory donor.
Maybe completely wrong of course.
Oh and I doubt it will affect a single vote.
"Covered" is certainly very carefully used and stands out in Boris' pronouncements over the issue.
The last car I owned was a 1967 Triumph Herald convertible. That was back in Auckland, when I was a student.
Fast forward twenty odd years.
I live in London Zone 2, with a driveway. I have two small kids. I would like a car for the wife to commute in, and for country trips on the weekend.
I am not suffering a mid-life crisis and do not need a Ferrari. But I also hate cheap-feeling, plasticky cars.
What kind of car should I get?
And, do I buy or lease?
🏴 110,976 1st doses / 395,043 2nd doses
🏴 5,342 / 40,232
🏴 14,513 / 16,057
(NI has changed its reporting in a way which would make day-to-day comparison misleading)"
PS that "If" is there for you as am 100% certain the Scottish finances are not anywhere near as rosy as you think they are..
So, I am reasonable well off I suppose, but begrudge the cost I am likely to need to spend.
Does that help?
If you've got a driveway I'm guessing that makes electric recharging more viable if you're bothered by that.
I've said for a while that we'll have an indication when we're nearing herd immunity (without restrictions), because when infections are dropping at, say, 50% per week with the restrictions we've got, we probably won't be far off (assuming current restrictions impair R by about a factor of 2, taking into account the level of (eroding) compliance).
They've halved in two weeks, from being reasonably constant for a few weeks before that. Of course, there's chunky error bars involved, but that could be a pointer to us passing the inflexion point on increasing immunity.
I genuinely think they could bring the 17th of May relaxation forwards by two weeks based on this data, and be ready to bring the 21st of June relaxation forwards significantly as well when more data comes in.
Utility is more important than sportiness.
I at least need to feel I am getting value for money.
Yes, electric would be desirable but I am a bit hostile to Tesla and the broader market seems a bit immature.
I've not looked into new cars in a long time. My car is a Kia. It was far cheaper when I bought it than comparable cars then due to being a relatively unknown brand, but came with a seven year warranty as opposed to a three year one. I would strongly recommend them as a brand and anyone I know with a Kia has said the same, but I don't know if they're still as good value for money as they used to be.
I think they still all come now with a seven year warranty as standard which speaks to their respect in their own quality and reliability - not sure what other brands are like.
EDIT: Kia C'eed is my model, sort of an SUV but not as big as most SUVs. Would probably suit unless you want something smaller.
* Ford Fiesta 1.0l Ecoboost
* Toyota Yaris Hybrid
A Ford Focus if you need more space. Like I say boring, but reliable.
Check out the tax rules, some years are cheaper than others.
Second a plurality of Scottish Green voters now oppose independence so only an SNP and Alba majority can even be considered to have a mandate for indyref2, an SNP and Green majority will not count
https://archive.ph/eg2lt
But we are all skating on thin ice here once Dura comes on and spells out exactly what it is you actually do need.
So, do I buy or lease?
Rhetoric is data not dates, policy is dates not data.
93kwh Taycan is a great car if the budget allows.
I've just bought a manual '07 997 Turbo with a blown turbo and a roasted clutch. She's fucking mint.
All cars are plasticky these days aren't they?
I'd recommend either of above two cars but maybe look at minis as well?
Will be going tomorrow morning.
38 years old, so into the thirties now.
Peter Kellner has summarised various targets for each party to claim success.
Conservatives
Open up a five-point lead over Labour in projected Britain-wide vote share
Re-elect Tory mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley and win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Gain Hartlepool parliamentary seat from Labour
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win at least 20 (out of 60) seats in Welsh Parliament
Gain votes in London mayoral election (having achieved 35 per cent of first-preference votes last time)
Labour
Overtake Tories in projected Britain-wide vote share
Win London mayoralty outright on first preference votes (44 per cent last time)
Defeat Tory incumbent mayors in West Midlands and Tees Valley; win mayoral election in West Yorkshire
Hold Hartlepool parliamentary seat
Win at least 25 per cent support in constituency vote in Scotland
Win absolute majority in Welsh Parliament (two short last time)
Liberal Democrats
Win at least 16 per cent of projected Britain-wide vote share
Gain more council seats than they lose
Win at least 10 per cent of constituency vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly (8 per cent in both elections last time)
SNP
Win overall majority in Scottish Parliament (they need 65 of the 129 seats; they won 63 last time)
Keep Alex Salmond’s new Alba party out of the parliament completely
Greens
Win at least 8 per cent of first preference votes in the London mayoral election
Gain 100 seats in English council elections
Add to the six seats they won last time in Scotland
Plaid Cymru
Win at least 15 seats in Welsh Assembly (12 last time)
Win at least 25 per cent of the vote in either the constituency or party list vote (21 per cent in both last time)
I knew I was going to be in trouble the moment I responded.
The BBC as a corporation cannot take part in the campaign. We have special duties that don't apply to other organisations under our Royal Charter and editorial guidelines that prevent us from joining lobbying campaigns. So while we have firm policies to deal with online abuse, the corporation cannot join a lobbying campaign no matter how worthy the cause.
This does not mean that the BBC is neutral on issues such as racism or hate crime. They are abhorrent.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/56942511
I genuinely don't see what all these clubs not tweeting for a couple of days will achieve.