Categories
My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go – politicalbetting.com
My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go – politicalbetting.com
A couple of months ago I did a post here and bet at evens that by the time Joe Biden got to his 100th day in office he would still have approval ratings in the range of 50-54.9%. I described this a one of the best political bets at the moment.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
So Biden is currently about average in terms of approval, with Trump significantly below the average and Obama and Reagan clearly above the average
https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx
We now know that planets -- and even planets like the Earth -- are incredibly common. The Earth is not special.
There was no evidence that planets were common ... until they were discovered to be common. That happened as soon as we got instruments sensitive enough to detect them.
Ditto life.
Once there are instruments sensitive to detect bio-signatures (e.g. spectroscopic evidence of DNA), then it will be detected. It will probably happen within the decade. We're not special.
And it's true, we COULD be.
Perhaps even some Republicans now want to put the manic partisanship of recent years behind them. For now at least.
Maybe we'll see that at home soon too? People moving on from 52/48 splits and anger at 11/10.
Anyhow, thanks for the debate, I must go.
I thought Daniel Levy just did that?
Quelle surprise!
It's too early to talk about a new normal, and Biden in many ways represents a reversion to the mean, but it used to be common for Republican Presidents to get very respectable ratings from Democrats in the early stages and vice versa.
In this ultra-partisan era, Biden is at around 10% with Republicans and 90% with Democrats. I've not got the pre-Trump figures to hand but suspect that - if not popular with opponents - there was a genuine goodwill amongst many Republicans for Obama and Democrats for Reagan. That was led by defeated opponents, of course. McCain was notably magnanimous, Carter less so but did what was expected of him to say the right things.
Clearly, Biden will be pleased to be above water. Not sure he'll be overly worried by slightly more lukewarm comparisons with several pre-Trump Presidents.
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1387023670435061763?s=20
1 - Very rare abiogenesis (the precise circumstances by which self-replicating organisms can come about are rare and/or subject to extreme chance. For example, I've seen it posited that a large Moon to flex the crust in order to have sufficient activity (radioactive minerals close to the surface and/or volcanic activity that's just right and not too much) could be necessary. Not sure how likely that is)
2 - Very rare evolution of communicative intelligence (we, as a species, only turned up very late in the day and by chance that an ecological niche opened up that was compatible with evolving intelligence.)
3 - Limited Lifespan (intelligent life becomes dependent on a whole lot of things, including not destroying itself, and its capacity to change its own environment in such a way that its own continued existence gets limited becomes too great)
4 - Dark Forest (the first intelligence to get interstellar travel destroys all others simply because the capacity for destruction from new, immature intelligences, is too dangerous. Thus any surviving intelligences stay very very quiet)
5 - No Interstellar Travel (The distances between stars are just too great. There is no FTL and sublight travel is economically unviable, even for seedships)
6 - Timing (The conditions for intelligent life to evolve are very dependent on such things as second generation stars, having sufficient time to develop, not having serious destructive events, and it is only recently that such conditions have come about)
7 - All of the above.
In recent years even independents have been pretty set in the opinions. You get blue or red independents and they're fixed.
If independent voters are stopping being hyperpartisan then that includes a large chunk of GOP voters.
Value on no, IMO. Even better value on snp <60 seats @6.4
Dyor, though!
🏴 67,483 1st doses / 249,768 2nd doses
🏴 8,392 / 33,986
🏴 7,972 / 11,565
NI 6,848 / 9,369
600k day tomorrow?
Anyone have a Required Run Rate for next targets?
There will be no facemasks needed by customers and no vaccine passports required
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1387031065202671617?s=20
So, there are ~ 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets in the Universe. And these planets will have evolved over many 1,000, 000,000,000 years. There is plenty of opportunity for very rare events to have happened many, many times.
(I think of your list, only 5 is likely to be correct -- though that does not mean we cannot detect life because we may gain evidence via spectroscopy. In fact, I think that is much the most likely bio-signature. Point 3 is certainly true, though we know life on Earth has persisted over 3.7 Gyrs, only a bit shorter than age of the Earth)
Must go, now.
The fact that the Trumpers say that Biden has dementia and yet he manages to do all of that means they've lowered the bar soo much for Biden.
Fox and Gammons is branding genius.
But I am in the camp of not knowing or really caring until one does an emergency landing on the A1(M) in front of me (not too close, mind).
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/550141-biden-approval-rating-stands-at-52-percent-after-almost-100-days-in
There is clearly something of a range, with CBS at 58%.
I understand there is a lot of chatter about right now.
Can anyone kindly direct me to a non-partisan, non-technical, non-loony summary article or website on what exactly is happening?
Cheers.
Perfick.
The USA actually overtook us today in terms of doses/population*. They won't stay ahead.
* If you accept population figures of 67,886,004** & 331002647 as the raw populations
** ONS uses 66,796,807 as the estimate.
All adults first dose by end of July will be hit very very easily.
That nice Mr Drakeford knocking it out of the Park
Wee Jimmy now a comfortable 2nd
King Liar and the DUP failing miserably to keep up with the progressives
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55855220
I find it bad form to do that "Must go" thing. If you are going to make a post which is part of a conversation either give an opportunity to respond or don't post.
69.1% of those in their 40s - nearly 271,000 - had a first dose while 51,689 (13.2%) have had both doses.
More than 36% of those in their 30s (153,756) have had a first dose.
Of those aged 18 to 29, 96,586 (20.8%) have had a first dose.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJQcwbcMopY
“In decreasing order of plausibility:
1: They said something innocent that is misconstrued by loons to be aliens.
2: They said something dishonest for a political agenda, eg to get more money to Defence.
3: Some other explanation.
98: They are loons.
99: Mulder was right, the truth is out there”
It’s a nice sunny day and it’s always good fun to sit and chat about the Great Filter, the Drake Equation, the Dark Forest etc... even better with a cider in hand.
There’s a more immediate question that I was hoping this forum of political experts could help me with? Why in the last year have a quite unusual collection of senior US political figures gone on the record to make quite extraordinary claims about UFOs? And started a very major congressional study into the topic, that has now squarely caught the attention of the US mainstream media?
The statements include there being A LOT of multi point evidence (including satellite visuals, radar, sonar, close range videos) of them being tangible intelligently controlled, high tech objects (rather than glitches or misidentified balloons). That they can break the sound barrier without causing sonic booms? Can pull G force in the many hundreds. Leave no visible infrared signature from a propulsion system? Can traverse easily between air and water. That they interfere quite regularly with US military assets. That the US does not have air superiority over its own landmass AND UFO’S HAVE EVEN REMOTELY DEACTIVATED US NUKES.
Philip prefers to not engage his brain with this topic rather than look carefully at what is being said by whom. Fair enough. It’s a hard topic.
As for the rest of you, if this is all made up, what possible reason is there for such a conspiracy between political adversaries? Because that conspiracy itself would be the story of our time too.
Dozy sod should have let squillionaire Chancellor Rishi take the Number 11 flat and then swapped after he'd done it up.
If we went for targets of all vaccinated by end May, end June and end July (with 12 weeks kept for second doses) then what would be the RRR for those?
UK has 19.3% fully vaccinated (inflated by that nice Mr Drakeford's 21.6%!
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&cumulative=1&populationAdjusted=1
Shades of David Kelly?
Not some batshit crazy lunatic on YouTube.
I "popped" into a cafe the other day
"Do I just take a seat?"
"No - go to the registration desk, fill out a form, give us your email and telephone number and wait there plus put your mask on".
This has become the norm.
This series of videos (1/3) from last week is a panel from the mainstream media in the US interviewing Lue Elizondo, who headed the Pentagon’s investigative unit into UFO.
There are any number or articles and videos from the likes of NY Times and NBC discussing the congressional process and with interviews with the senior individuals I mentioned earlier.
Few places will be voluntarily insisting on facemasks. But there will be a lot of political pressure not to let up with the masks. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the government doesn't cave in to the pressure and retain the rules which keep them in place. It would be gratifyingly uncharacteristic of them if it did.
https://twitter.com/PronouncedAlva/status/1387036021552914444
But could do with being 60% shorter.
*geologically speaking.
Perhaps you could write a "reader letter" explaining why they shouldn't
You can keep throwing around mental health slurs on this topic if it makes you sleep soundly but it doesn’t answer my question, why so many senior individuals in the US are suddenly going on the record about this.
Cicero said:
» show previous quotes
Blimey, for once I actually agree with HYFUD. By elections are not predictive of a whole lot, though FWIW I think the Tories will still struggle to win Hartlepool. Even if they were to win there and win in WM, they will not win in London, and may be thumped.
As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards
So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
How does ALBA hurt SNP, they are only on the list and SNP get almost no seats on List, any seats ALBA get will be from unionists. You do not seem to understand how it works at Holyrood and it will in fact strengthen independence parties a lot.
Once court cases are over it is likely Sturgeon will be gone and even if not her feet will be held to the fire by Alba and she will possibly lose many to them if she continues as previously.
Looking like a really good election for independence supporters , which to cover the continuing ignorance on here, does not mean SNP.
It's exceedingly easy on YouTube to take things people have said and twist them into giving a completely different picture. Total mendacious crap.
To me if the UFO phenomenon is confirmed as legit by the US government (I should say President at this point given who else already spoke), it seems obvious to me that they were probably here before we were. Play your own game as to what that means.
Additionally, our Solar system is actually somewhat rare - most Stars are red dwarfs and few solar systems we've discovered so far resemble anything like ours. So we may be overestimating how many habitable planets there really are.
Considering our planet has been around for a third of the entire lifetime of the universe and we are the closest it's come to intelligent life, it doesn't seem that implausible that while primitive life is everywhere, we are one of the most advanced, or that other advanced races are not yet so far ahead of us that they can freely travel galaxies etc.
Or, more precisely, to screw with just one country on Earth?
Why?