Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
I'd say there's a good chance of a financial crash the next 18 months. Triggered by US inflation and/or conflict in Taiwan. Which would throw the political balls into the air.
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
I'd say there's a good chance of a financial crash the next 18 months. Triggered by US inflation and/or conflict in Taiwan. Which would throw the political balls into the air.
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
Immediately followed by another CON election win?
Yes, then a landslide Labour one.
Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.
To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.
Off to work for me though...
Didn't John the Baptist lose his head?
As I recall, the "Messiah" got crucified on December 12, 2019.
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
I'd say there's a good chance of a financial crash the next 18 months. Triggered by US inflation and/or conflict in Taiwan. Which would throw the political balls into the air.
I can only guess that people made hay through the furlough ( I don't know how, as I have dug into my savings big time) and plan to blow it all on new houses and cars.
I do notice that despite John Lewis closing its High Street branches, queues at McDonalds when I drive past are monumental. So perhaps the future is flipping burgers for each other.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
I'd say there's a good chance of a financial crash the next 18 months. Triggered by US inflation and/or conflict in Taiwan. Which would throw the political balls into the air.
I can only guess that people made hay through the furlough ( I don't know how, as I have dug into my savings big time) and plan to blow it all on new houses and cars.
I do notice that despite John Lewis closing its High Street branches, queues at McDonalds when I drive past are monumental. So perhaps the future is flipping burgers for each other.
Interesting - how many houses do you think you will be buying !!!!!!
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
All things are possible. Maybe the Brexiteers were right that Britain will be hundreds of billions of pounds better off outside the EU, though the precise mechanism for this was never vouchsafed. If Boris is prepared to invest in infrastructure and industry, rather than just make "jam every other day" promises, Britain may bounce back strongly.
Or Boris might lose interest, retire and be replaced by a more conventional Conservative Prime Minister who crashes the economy.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Boris was lucky: extremely lucky given the fate of Jeffrey Archer.
I read on here about Johnson's strategic invincibility and Starmer's relative ineptitude. I can't see either. I read about the economic bounce back to considerably better than 2019 levels, and, as a student of economics, I don't understand how or why?
I'd say there's a good chance of a financial crash the next 18 months. Triggered by US inflation and/or conflict in Taiwan. Which would throw the political balls into the air.
I can only guess that people made hay through the furlough ( I don't know how, as I have dug into my savings big time) and plan to blow it all on new houses and cars.
I do notice that despite John Lewis closing its High Street branches, queues at McDonalds when I drive past are monumental. So perhaps the future is flipping burgers for each other.
Interesting - how many houses do you think you will be buying !!!!!!
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
More importantly, does he text in Welsh?
The texts that got him into trouble were definitely in English...
Edit - come to think of it, I’m amazed the poster in question didn’t go with that as a reason why he shouldn’t be an MP
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Apparently he doesn’t speak the language, or at least only a few words, but he is a keen supporter of it.
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
Interesting to see the perspective of our nearest neighbour.
Personally I find flag battles, on either side, to be tiresomely juvenile. Yes, we have a flag. So does everyone else - after these sorts of shenanigans https://youtu.be/_9W1zTEuKLY - so what?
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
The most interesting thing I notice from that chart is that Heath is the only Conservative leader of the opposition to lose net seats, while five Labour leaders have that distinction (Corbyn, Miliband, Foot, Gaitskill, Attlee).
The pendulum does not inevitably swing to the opposition.
The most interesting thing I notice from that chart is that Heath is the only Conservative leader of the opposition to lose net seats, while five Labour leaders have that distinction (Corbyn, Miliband, Foot, Gaitskill, Attlee).
The pendulum does not inevitably swing to the opposition.
Milliband did see small net gains from the Tories. His losses were to another opposition party.
Interesting to see the guy holding the "Kill Cops banner" seems to be an under cover cop. Perhaps that is why he wasn't arrested, indeed even protected by the Cops.
Interesting to see the guy holding the "Kill Cops banner" seems to be an under cover cop. Perhaps that is why he wasn't arrested, indeed even protected by the Cops.
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
Immediately followed by another CON election win?
Yes, then a landslide Labour one.
Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.
To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.
Off to work for me though...
Didn't John the Baptist lose his head?
As I recall, the "Messiah" got crucified on December 12, 2019.
On a more general note I do wonder if the Putin model is closer than the Trump one to how BJ sees getting his shit done, without the assassination of the state's enemies, internal & external, of course. Though maybe Hunky Dunky should be worried about that sealed bottle of expensive fragrance that he found on the doorstep...
Is there much real difference between Putin and Trump. Both utterly contemptuous of democracy.
And the idea that a British PM - let alone a Conservative one - should be admiring of Putin is..... well I would say surprising but given the amount of Russian money flowing into Tory party coffers perhaps not that surprising at all.
Well, Putin's smarter and still in charge, Trump only had a chaotic 4 years, so on purely pragmatic terms Vlad's the better example.
Constant reference to nation, culture and history being assailed by enemies within and without, rewriting of said history, the public finances syphoned off to line the pockets of government friends and supporters, constant campaigning photo ops (ok, gormless in a B&Q apron isn't quite bare-chested on a horse galloping across the Steppe, but you get the drift), flag, flag, flag.
Yes, you'd never get Nicola Sturgeon rewriting history, constantly claiming outsiders are trying to do down the nation, syphoning off finances, constantly campaigning with photo ops or crowbarring the flag in at every opportunity, would you?
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
Now you could with justification criticise the government for the fact that the UK was so dependent upon imported PPE a year ago.
But I don't recall any of the people who subsequently frothed about PPE shortages ever having done so.
Likewise when the civil service and the NHS tries to shift its PPE purchasing back to Asian sweatshops in order to saving a few pounds each year I suspect there will be a deafening silence from the PPE frothers.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Your figures were fictitious - for a seat that will not be created.
Boris is flexible, pragmatic and determined. He has no problem at all in adopting what once would have been regarded as Labour policies in the same way as Blair had no problem at all in stealing Tory clothes. Its what winning politicians do. And he is going to win, yet again.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
Chapeau!
Happy Easter all. To David's excellent paean to political flexibility, I shall add only Theognis of Megara's elegiacs on the nature of the octopus:
'My heart, to all your friends display a kaleidoscopic character, melding with your own the temperament of each. Take on the nature of the multiform, multi-limbed one, who seems no different than the rock to which he clings. For now, hold on to this one, then adopt another skin. Mark this well: better ingenuity than inflexibility...’
Interesting to see the perspective of our nearest neighbour.
Personally I find flag battles, on either side, to be tiresomely juvenile. Yes, we have a flag. So does everyone else - after these sorts of shenanigans https://youtu.be/_9W1zTEuKLY - so what?
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
Immediately followed by another CON election win?
Yes, then a landslide Labour one.
Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.
To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.
Off to work for me though...
Didn't John the Baptist lose his head?
As I recall, the "Messiah" got crucified on December 12, 2019.
Brought to you by the same people as "beaten by a bus".
As there is a EU flag on this person's every tweet you would think they are probably being ironic and having at laugh. Slightly scary that they might not be but just have that little insight or tolerance, or respect for the good people who market organic oats so that we critics can eat; and they too have a living to make.
The Conservatives haven’t had a major, irreversible split since 1846 (discounting the special case of the withdrawal of the Ulster Unionists from the wider unionist grouping in the early 1970s). I don’t see that changing now.
They had a split 2 years ago.
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
But they didn’t form a separate party. Just as they didn’t in 1867 or 1922 or 1975.
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
No, I wouldn't expect a formal split in the Tory party, but that it is likely that Johnsons end (and all political careers end in failure) will come from losing popularity internally.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
Immediately followed by another CON election win?
Yes, then a landslide Labour one.
Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.
To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.
Off to work for me though...
Didn't John the Baptist lose his head?
As I recall, the "Messiah" got crucified on December 12, 2019.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Your figures were fictitious - for a seat that will not be created.
And your claims are either wrong or fifty years out of date. You said Plaid have strength in North Pembs. They don’t. Indeed, they poll about the level of the Greens in an English seat. You say non-Welsh speakers aren’t elected MPs in Ceredigion. One was just six years ago. You said the Tories are weak in Ceredigion. They’re not. They’re in second. You said Tory areas are being removed from the new seat. They weren’t. Quite the contrary, Labour areas are the ones being removed, including your own birthplace.
As for ‘the seat will not be created,’ I’m pretty sure it still will be. The calculation goes from 29 seats on the mainland to 31. That’s probably one extra seat in the north and one in the Valleys, because that’s where all seats are slightly above tolerance. In Dyfed and Powys, they aren’t. There might be some jiggery pokery around Ammanford and which seat it goes into, but that’s about it. (Labour should be praying it goes into Llanelli, frankly, because that gives them a decent chance of two holds. If it goes into Carmarthenshire, it’s not out of the question they could end up with no seats at all in Dyfed.)
I’m not sure why you’re getting so agitated. You’re wrong, just accept it. We all make mistakes. You may not like it, but again, that’s your problem.
I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. Or, rather, I wasn't until about 6 months ago. He's doing brilliantly on vaccination and I'm chilled about vaccine passports.
Like most people, I get it that they're necessary for the unlock. An intellectual debate about civil liberties is, on this particular issue, a bit arcane.
Great to see that the FA Cup semis and League Cup final will have some fans back. So cool.
Have a good day everyone.
But they’re not...
We’re already unlocking, without vaccine passports, and positive tests, hospitalisations, and deaths are plunging through the floor.
They are solving a problem that doesn’t exist.
They are solving a "problem" deliberately created by the government ie the refusal to lift restrictions once cases and deaths are down and the NHS is no longer overwhelmed in order to introduce controls authoritarians in government and the civil service have long wanted.
Alternatively, they are using passports as a nudge to those refusing the vaccine. "This is how life will be for you - if you continue to refuse."
It's a worthy aim. Because the people who are anti-vax-passports are giving no alternative to stop these folk from being the Covid-fodder for a third wave.
Except it's utterly pointless. Unless something dramatic happens which suddenly suggests the vaccines are unsafe, in about a month we're going to be over herd immunity just from a combination of those who want to be jabbed and prior infection, and there will still be people who want to be jabbed voluntarily after that anyway.
They seem to have got the idea that it's necessary to get 100% coverage or we will be swamped by another wave of cases, when 70% will probably do (and we're getting 90% + in the groups which are actually at risk from Covid). If we have the odd outbreak amongst students who can't be bothered with a jab, so what? It's not like it's going to escape and spread up the age groups any more.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
I had you down as a Highland shotputter.
Actually, on looking into my cupboard you are right. My last packet was Scotts Porridge Oats. Is my home really that well wired and linked? I don't even have a Chinese phone for goodness sake. What else might you learn?
Apparently he doesn’t speak the language, or at least only a few words, but he is a keen supporter of it.
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
The results on a ward by ward level for Preseli Pembrokeshire are on electoral calculus (EC). The Tories won every ward north of Fishguard in GE19. But, there is some Plaid Cymru strength in the northern wards.
EC, based on GE17, made the then redrawn Ceredigion a Breseli very close between all 4 parties
Ceredigion a Breseli is Plaid Cymru (with Tories second) on GE17. But, surely it is a Tory seat with GE19 share.
The Tory position in the Pembroke South part of CW&PS looks even stronger on electoral calculus, based on GE19 (Labour only won Narbeth & Pembroke Dock).
The then redrawn Pembrokeshire Mid and South is a projected Tory hold based on GE17. It must be very comfortable on GE19 results.
That said, Ceredigion voters have historically proved very adapt at coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory. And Ceredigion is a (two times) University seat -- these have been drifting away from the Tories everywhere.
So, my guess is -- if the boundary commissioners divvy up the seats as we think -- Ceredigion a Breseli will actually be a Plaid Cymru seat (with Tories a close second) and Pembrokeshire Mid and South will be a Tory seat (with Labour second).
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Seems to happen to several posters. One of SeanT’s incarnations, Eadric, had a similar problem. (I did enjoy his admission Eadric was ‘a failed spinoff.’)
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
On a more general note I do wonder if the Putin model is closer than the Trump one to how BJ sees getting his shit done, without the assassination of the state's enemies, internal & external, of course. Though maybe Hunky Dunky should be worried about that sealed bottle of expensive fragrance that he found on the doorstep...
Is there much real difference between Putin and Trump. Both utterly contemptuous of democracy.
And the idea that a British PM - let alone a Conservative one - should be admiring of Putin is..... well I would say surprising but given the amount of Russian money flowing into Tory party coffers perhaps not that surprising at all.
Well, Putin's smarter and still in charge, Trump only had a chaotic 4 years, so on purely pragmatic terms Vlad's the better example.
Constant reference to nation, culture and history being assailed by enemies within and without, rewriting of said history, the public finances syphoned off to line the pockets of government friends and supporters, constant campaigning photo ops (ok, gormless in a B&Q apron isn't quite bare-chested on a horse galloping across the Steppe, but you get the drift), flag, flag, flag.
Yes, you'd never get Nicola Sturgeon rewriting history, constantly claiming outsiders are trying to do down the nation, syphoning off finances, constantly campaigning with photo ops or crowbarring the flag in at every opportunity, would you?
Regardless of your specific opinion of Sturgeon she doesn't control your country. Unless I'm very much mistaken about your inclinations, the arsehole you voted for exerts a large amount of control over mine.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
Now you could with justification criticise the government for the fact that the UK was so dependent upon imported PPE a year ago.
But I don't recall any of the people who subsequently frothed about PPE shortages ever having done so.
Likewise when the civil service and the NHS tries to shift its PPE purchasing back to Asian sweatshops in order to saving a few pounds each year I suspect there will be a deafening silence from the PPE frothers.
Cygnus pointed to a shortage of PPE but the government suppressed rather than acted on the report. Since Boris was outside the government and his erstwhile rival Jeremy Hunt was Health Secretary, I doubt Boris would be averse to an inquiry into what went wrong.
But you are probably right that the "lessons will be learned" mob will learn nothing. That seems to be the usual experience.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Just been for a walk; utterly glorious in leafy Surrey.
I’ve been thinking about the implications of COVID passports for football grounds. During the limited reopening at the end of 2020, fans had to give their details upfront. Now, many season tickets get used by multiple people so fans will need to plan ahead and it won’t be possible to make last minute swaps if someone can’t go.
I’m especially interested as to how this will work for away fans. Unfortunately at my club Arsenal it has become a closed shop with the same c.3,000 fans controlling access to away tickets. But very few of them actually go to all the games with a lot touting going on. So an effective ID system would be interesting.
Anyway, I think I’ll email my MP to let him know that I think it’s bonkers. I’ve never written to him before and I understand MPs get nervous when they get emails from people who they don’t normally hear from.
Apparently he doesn’t speak the language, or at least only a few words, but he is a keen supporter of it.
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
The results on a ward by ward level for Preseli Pembrokeshire are on electoral calculus (EC). The Tories won every ward north of Fishguard in GE19. But, there is some Plaid Cymru strength in the northern wards.
EC, based on GE17, made the then redrawn Ceredigion a Breseli very close between all 4 parties
Ceredigion a Breseli is Plaid Cymru (with Tories second) on GE17. But, surely it is a Tory seat with GE19 share.
The Tory position in the Pembroke South part of CW&PS looks even stronger on electoral calculus, based on GE19 (Labour only won Narbeth & Pembroke Dock).
The then redrawn Pembrokeshire Mid and South is a projected Tory hold based on GE17. It must be very comfortable on GE19 results.
That said, Ceredigion voters have historically proved very adapt at coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory. And Ceredigion is a (two times) University seat -- these have been drifting away from the Tories everywhere.
So, my guess is -- if the boundary commissioners divvy up the seats as we think -- Ceredigion a Breseli will actually be a Plaid Cymru seat (with Tories a close second) and Pembrokeshire Mid and South will be a Tory seat (with Labour second).
They barely held Preseli in 2017. In 2019 they got 50%+ of the vote.
I don’t necessarily agree with you about ‘coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory’ either. That was true in the 70s and 80s when the Tories were the main opposition, but I don’t think it’s true today. What appears to have happened instead is that the Liberal Democrat voters, in particular, have started peeling away from the party. That’s a Wales-wide phenomenon that you can see in say, Montgomeryshire and other seats where they used to be very strong (Cardiff Central). I think Mid and South Pembroke will be quite tight, with a lot of the Labour vote in Milford Haven and Haverfordwest and the loss of West Carmarthenshire (which is quite Tory) making it more marginal. Equally, I agree it’s a notional hold at this moment,
The issue for both is that there aren’t many votes to swing. People tend to be quite entrenched. But it can happen. The father of a friend of mine was a Tory councillor in Pembroke Dock and was so confident of a hold he went on holiday during the campaign. He lost. To his son’s girlfriend. That caused some, ummm, interesting conversations...
Edit - incidentally, there will not be a university in Lampeter by the next election, as it will be closing in the next couple of years.
Just been for a walk; utterly glorious in leafy Surrey.
I’ve been thinking about the implications of COVID passports for football grounds. During the limited reopening at the end of 2020, fans had to give their details upfront. Now, many season tickets get used by multiple people so fans will need to plan ahead and it won’t be possible to make last minute swaps if someone can’t go.
I’m especially interested as to how this will work for away fans. Unfortunately at my club Arsenal it has become a closed shop with the same c.3,000 fans controlling access to away tickets. But very few of them actually go to all the games with a lot touting going on. So an effective ID system would be interesting.
Anyway, I think I’ll email my MP to let him know that I think it’s bonkers. I’ve never written to him before and I understand MPs get nervous when they get emails from people who they don’t normally hear from.
Yes, I have 2 season tickets at Leicester, one in Fox Jr's name, but often I take other people. While a breach of the rules, this is common practice amongst football fans. Vaccine passports will not be popular with such people.
Just been for a walk; utterly glorious in leafy Surrey.
I’ve been thinking about the implications of COVID passports for football grounds. During the limited reopening at the end of 2020, fans had to give their details upfront. Now, many season tickets get used by multiple people so fans will need to plan ahead and it won’t be possible to make last minute swaps if someone can’t go.
I’m especially interested as to how this will work for away fans. Unfortunately at my club Arsenal it has become a closed shop with the same c.3,000 fans controlling access to away tickets. But very few of them actually go to all the games with a lot touting going on. So an effective ID system would be interesting.
Anyway, I think I’ll email my MP to let him know that I think it’s bonkers. I’ve never written to him before and I understand MPs get nervous when they get emails from people who they don’t normally hear from.
I've committed to a BBQ this afternoon so that snow threat may well be imminent. Going to cut the grass before it comes.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
Now you could with justification criticise the government for the fact that the UK was so dependent upon imported PPE a year ago.
But I don't recall any of the people who subsequently frothed about PPE shortages ever having done so.
Likewise when the civil service and the NHS tries to shift its PPE purchasing back to Asian sweatshops in order to saving a few pounds each year I suspect there will be a deafening silence from the PPE frothers.
Cygnus pointed to a shortage of PPE but the government suppressed rather than acted on the report. Since Boris was outside the government and his erstwhile rival Jeremy Hunt was Health Secretary, I doubt Boris would be averse to an inquiry into what went wrong.
But you are probably right that the "lessons will be learned" mob will learn nothing. That seems to be the usual experience.
The thing is we don't need to produce all our PPE in this country or even that much.
But what we do need is a basic capacity which can then be quickly expanded during a crisis.
Given that any money spent on UK produced PPE will recirculate through the economy the actual cost would be minimal.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Your figures were fictitious - for a seat that will not be created.
And your claims are either wrong or fifty years out of date. You said Plaid have strength in North Pembs. They don’t. Indeed, they poll about the level of the Greens in an English seat. You say non-Welsh speakers aren’t elected MPs in Ceredigion. One was just six years ago. You said the Tories are weak in Ceredigion. They’re not. They’re in second. You said Tory areas are being removed from the new seat. They weren’t. Quite the contrary, Labour areas are the ones being removed, including your own birthplace.
As for ‘the seat will not be created,’ I’m pretty sure it still will be. The calculation goes from 29 seats on the mainland to 31. That’s probably one extra seat in the north and one in the Valleys, because that’s where all seats are slightly above tolerance. In Dyfed and Powys, they aren’t. There might be some jiggery pokery around Ammanford and which seat it goes into, but that’s about it. (Labour should be praying it goes into Llanelli, frankly, because that gives them a decent chance of two holds. If it goes into Carmarthenshire, it’s not out of the question they could end up with no seats at all in Dyfed.)
I’m not sure why you’re getting so agitated. You’re wrong, just accept it. We all make mistakes. You may not like it, but again, that’s your problem.
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat. ...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said: 'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post. That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Mark Williams, so until 2017.
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Your figures were fictitious - for a seat that will not be created.
And your claims are either wrong or fifty years out of date. You said Plaid have strength in North Pembs. They don’t. Indeed, they poll about the level of the Greens in an English seat. You say non-Welsh speakers aren’t elected MPs in Ceredigion. One was just six years ago. You said the Tories are weak in Ceredigion. They’re not. They’re in second. You said Tory areas are being removed from the new seat. They weren’t. Quite the contrary, Labour areas are the ones being removed, including your own birthplace.
As for ‘the seat will not be created,’ I’m pretty sure it still will be. The calculation goes from 29 seats on the mainland to 31. That’s probably one extra seat in the north and one in the Valleys, because that’s where all seats are slightly above tolerance. In Dyfed and Powys, they aren’t. There might be some jiggery pokery around Ammanford and which seat it goes into, but that’s about it. (Labour should be praying it goes into Llanelli, frankly, because that gives them a decent chance of two holds. If it goes into Carmarthenshire, it’s not out of the question they could end up with no seats at all in Dyfed.)
I’m not sure why you’re getting so agitated. You’re wrong, just accept it. We all make mistakes. You may not like it, but again, that’s your problem.
You seriously believe that a combined Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seat will be created ? With an electorate of 116,000? You based your projection entirely on such an assumption - and it is patent nonsense!No more than 15,000 - 20,000 voters from the existing Preseli seat will be transferred - leaving 40, 000 in the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid has never run strongly in Pembrokeshire , but what strength it does enjoy is in the North of the county - including Fishguard and Goodwick. The Tories are not regularly second in Ceredigion - despite being so in 2019 on 22% of the vote. In 2017 they were 4th - and in 2015 came 3rd with 11%. Further back, the party regularly lost its deposit. Any sniff of a Tory win would see Labour and LD voters - 33% in 2019 - tactically switching to Plaid to stop them.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
I think the vaccines will highly effective at stopping transmission too. Think what transmission requires. A person to be infected, then for enough virus to replicate to be able to infect another via droplet or aerosols. All while the bodies is on a seek, locate, destroy mission, already primed for the invader. Of course scientists have been cautious about this, buts that’s what we do. Look to israel, and shortly here for the lack of transmission among the vaccinated.
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Seems to happen to several posters. One of SeanT’s incarnations, Eadric, had a similar problem. (I did enjoy his admission Eadric was ‘a failed spinoff.’)
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
I use vf.politicalbetting.com which might be the problem. It plays better with my phone.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Seems to happen to several posters. One of SeanT’s incarnations, Eadric, had a similar problem. (I did enjoy his admission Eadric was ‘a failed spinoff.’)
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
I use vf.politicalbetting.com which might be the problem. It plays better with my phone.
So do I, and that doesn’t affect it. But do you have an actual separate vanilla account, rather than say, Disqus?
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
on their way to Europe , so merely transit
I’ve argued with nats endlessly on Twitter about this one. The common argument is that there’ll be no tariff and non-tariff barriers between Scotland and rUK, and that rejoining the EU will make up for the lost trade.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Seems to happen to several posters. One of SeanT’s incarnations, Eadric, had a similar problem. (I did enjoy his admission Eadric was ‘a failed spinoff.’)
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
I use vf.politicalbetting.com which might be the problem. It plays better with my phone.
So do I, and that doesn’t affect it. But do you have an actual separate vanilla account, rather than say, Disqus?
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
Apparently he doesn’t speak the language, or at least only a few words, but he is a keen supporter of it.
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
The results on a ward by ward level for Preseli Pembrokeshire are on electoral calculus (EC). The Tories won every ward north of Fishguard in GE19. But, there is some Plaid Cymru strength in the northern wards.
EC, based on GE17, made the then redrawn Ceredigion a Breseli very close between all 4 parties
Ceredigion a Breseli is Plaid Cymru (with Tories second) on GE17. But, surely it is a Tory seat with GE19 share.
The Tory position in the Pembroke South part of CW&PS looks even stronger on electoral calculus, based on GE19 (Labour only won Narbeth & Pembroke Dock).
The then redrawn Pembrokeshire Mid and South is a projected Tory hold based on GE17. It must be very comfortable on GE19 results.
That said, Ceredigion voters have historically proved very adapt at coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory. And Ceredigion is a (two times) University seat -- these have been drifting away from the Tories everywhere.
So, my guess is -- if the boundary commissioners divvy up the seats as we think -- Ceredigion a Breseli will actually be a Plaid Cymru seat (with Tories a close second) and Pembrokeshire Mid and South will be a Tory seat (with Labour second).
Apparently he doesn’t speak the language, or at least only a few words, but he is a keen supporter of it.
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
The results on a ward by ward level for Preseli Pembrokeshire are on electoral calculus (EC). The Tories won every ward north of Fishguard in GE19. But, there is some Plaid Cymru strength in the northern wards.
EC, based on GE17, made the then redrawn Ceredigion a Breseli very close between all 4 parties
Ceredigion a Breseli is Plaid Cymru (with Tories second) on GE17. But, surely it is a Tory seat with GE19 share.
The Tory position in the Pembroke South part of CW&PS looks even stronger on electoral calculus, based on GE19 (Labour only won Narbeth & Pembroke Dock).
The then redrawn Pembrokeshire Mid and South is a projected Tory hold based on GE17. It must be very comfortable on GE19 results.
That said, Ceredigion voters have historically proved very adapt at coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory. And Ceredigion is a (two times) University seat -- these have been drifting away from the Tories everywhere.
So, my guess is -- if the boundary commissioners divvy up the seats as we think -- Ceredigion a Breseli will actually be a Plaid Cymru seat (with Tories a close second) and Pembrokeshire Mid and South will be a Tory seat (with Labour second).
Electoral Calculus relies on local election results for its individual ward projections - but that is very notional indeed in areas where party politics is largely absent at that level.When such data is not available , it falls back on demographics - data which itself is not always easily transferable from what has largely been accumulated in England.Very little party politics at all in local elections in North Pembrokeshire beyond the odd Plaid or Labour candidate in the Fishguard area.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
The NHS has been under huge strain, with very little elective surgery going on, for 12months during which time about 10% of the population seem to have had the virus.
Don't see why that would not repeat over the next 12months if you let the virus rip through that 10% with no immunity.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
No, we already know that vaccine take up is extremely high among the at risk groups. This is nearly over (except for Boris being a twat).
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
Also, if 90% are vaccinated it will be much harder for the virus to spread. It wasn’t just the imminent threat of the health service being overwhelmed, but the exponential growth that caused the lockdowns.
On the new seat discussion, I'm glad that Oxfordshire is getting another seat, and that the horrendous East Oxfordshire seat will never come into existence. Not sure what a constituency linking the outskirts of Reading, Buckingham, Banbury, and Oxford has in terms of community identity!
I do pity the poor BCfEngland trying to draw up the Berkshire-Hampshire shared constituency. Using the boundary assistant tool it appears that in a lot of places quite illogical constituencies will have to be created in order to fit within the tight requirements.
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
on their way to Europe , so merely transit
So current exports marked for rUK are actually marked for the EU market and just move through rUK.
Right.
I love Scotland, I really do, but I fear for its future prosperity if it’s driven by logic like that.
And nothing incompetent about the UK's vaccine rollout. It's in the top 3 most competent in the world.
Which is all that now matters.
Although it is genuinely surprising that he managed to do so well at that given how great a fiasco every other policy he’s attempted has been.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
You don't need to wonder; it's known already that SAGE (Vallance in particular) insisted that day-to-day decisions on the vaccine procurement programme (which was already underway with the work done by scientists and senior pharma execs, before politicians got interested) be kept away from politicians, because the country simply could not afford another fiasco like the Tories had made of PPE procurement.
You keep spouting this line but where was the fiasco ?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
We ordered lots of PPE in January 2020 from a French factory which the French government promptly stole. This is one of the reasons that we decided to produce our own vaccines.
Ooh, new poster? Welcome!
I've done a few posts, but my post count stays firmly on 0 🤔
Seems to happen to several posters. One of SeanT’s incarnations, Eadric, had a similar problem. (I did enjoy his admission Eadric was ‘a failed spinoff.’)
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
I use vf.politicalbetting.com which might be the problem. It plays better with my phone.
I use vf too and my post count goes up but I don't post via a phone
On the new seat discussion, I'm glad that Oxfordshire is getting another seat, and that the horrendous East Oxfordshire seat will never come into existence. Not sure what a constituency linking the outskirts of Reading, Buckingham, Banbury, and Oxford has in terms of community identity!
I do pity the poor BCfEngland trying to draw up the Berkshire-Hampshire shared constituency. Using the boundary assistant tool it appears that in a lot of places quite illogical constituencies will have to be created in order to fit within the tight requirements.
Is this a moment to talk about the benefits of multi member constituencies and STV?
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
on their way to Europe , so merely transit
So current exports marked for rUK are actually marked for the EU market and just move through rUK.
Right.
I love Scotland, I really do, but I fear for its future prosperity if it’s driven by logic like that.
Since when was the independence debate driven by logic? Visceral emotion, yes!
On the new seat discussion, I'm glad that Oxfordshire is getting another seat, and that the horrendous East Oxfordshire seat will never come into existence. Not sure what a constituency linking the outskirts of Reading, Buckingham, Banbury, and Oxford has in terms of community identity!
I do pity the poor BCfEngland trying to draw up the Berkshire-Hampshire shared constituency. Using the boundary assistant tool it appears that in a lot of places quite illogical constituencies will have to be created in order to fit within the tight requirements.
Is this a moment to talk about the benefits of multi member constituencies and STV?
Everyone knows that Flavahans is the best porridge, also a product of the EU, being Irish.
Every day is a learning day on PB. People other than Quakers make porridge. Who knew?
Can't beat Lidl's very own finest. I will still buy it is they put a German flag on it, but some strange sensibility stops them.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
Not to mention the Scottish economy, 60%+ of all Scottish exports go to rUK. If you play with matches...
on their way to Europe , so merely transit
So current exports marked for rUK are actually marked for the EU market and just move through rUK.
Right.
I love Scotland, I really do, but I fear for its future prosperity if it’s driven by logic like that.
Since when was the independence debate driven by logic? Visceral emotion, yes!
You can see how the union has no chance - anything based broadly on fact will just be brushed aside as UK meddling.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
The NHS has been under huge strain, with very little elective surgery going on, for 12months during which time about 10% of the population seem to have had the virus.
Don't see why that would not repeat over the next 12months if you let the virus rip through that 10% with no immunity.
So you say 10% of the population have been infected during the last year but expect all ie 100% of the unvaccinated would be infected in the next year.
Perhaps you can explain why you think infection rates are going to increase so much when 90% are going to be vaccinated ?
On your scenario the Israeli health service should have been overwhelmed instead of the opposite happening.
On the new seat discussion, I'm glad that Oxfordshire is getting another seat, and that the horrendous East Oxfordshire seat will never come into existence. Not sure what a constituency linking the outskirts of Reading, Buckingham, Banbury, and Oxford has in terms of community identity!
I do pity the poor BCfEngland trying to draw up the Berkshire-Hampshire shared constituency. Using the boundary assistant tool it appears that in a lot of places quite illogical constituencies will have to be created in order to fit within the tight requirements.
The quotas are so tight that very many illogicalities are inevitable.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
The NHS has been under huge strain, with very little elective surgery going on, for 12months during which time about 10% of the population seem to have had the virus.
Don't see why that would not repeat over the next 12months if you let the virus rip through that 10% with no immunity.
So you say 10% of the population have been infected during the last year but expect all ie 100% of the unvaccinated would be infected in the next year.
Perhaps you can explain why you think infection rates are going to increase so much when 90% are going to be vaccinated ?
On your scenario the Israeli health service should have been overwhelmed instead of the opposite happening.
We've been under lockdown for much of the last year, every time the infections were rising exponentially action was taken to stop it.
Given we won't be at herd immunity, given the rates will therefore rise exponentially, I see no reason why teh HNS won't eventually be overwhelmed again.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
Also, if 90% are vaccinated it will be much harder for the virus to spread. It wasn’t just the imminent threat of the health service being overwhelmed, but the exponential growth that caused the lockdowns.
Exactly.
But to lockdown nutters the number required for herd immunity is always higher than you will have.
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
Also, if 90% are vaccinated it will be much harder for the virus to spread. It wasn’t just the imminent threat of the health service being overwhelmed, but the exponential growth that caused the lockdowns.
Exactly.
But to lockdown nutters the number required for herd immunity is always higher than you will have.
If herd immunity is not reached, how do you stop the virus levels rising exponentially through the non vaccinated without some level of control to stop that from happening ?
Are people not confusing the effectiveness of the vaccines in terms of stopping illness with the effectiveness of cutting transmission when talking herd immunity here ?
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
Keep an eye on Germany. Cases have gone up there (over three weeks ago, but so far deaths haven’t followed.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But that is not what was originally being claimed.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
The only was the NHS could be overwhelmed in that scenario would be if the 10% were all infected at the same time.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
Also, if 90% are vaccinated it will be much harder for the virus to spread. It wasn’t just the imminent threat of the health service being overwhelmed, but the exponential growth that caused the lockdowns.
Exactly.
But to lockdown nutters the number required for herd immunity is always higher than you will have.
If herd immunity is not reached, how do you stop the virus levels rising exponentially through the non vaccinated without some level of control to stop that from happening ?
Imagine a household with lots of unvaccinated people in it. One of them catches COVID, let’s say at work. They then infect all the people in their household. The R rate for that household is awful.
Interesting to see the perspective of our nearest neighbour.
Personally I find flag battles, on either side, to be tiresomely juvenile. Yes, we have a flag. So does everyone else - after these sorts of shenanigans https://youtu.be/_9W1zTEuKLY - so what?
Comments
I do notice that despite John Lewis closing its High Street branches, queues at McDonalds when I drive past are monumental. So perhaps the future is flipping burgers for each other.
justin124 said:
'With respect, the proposed boundaries imply nothing of the kind! You appear to have simply combined the votes cast in the current Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshie seats and gone on to suggest that the aggeregate figures provide a clear guide as to the likely outcome in the new seat.
...Places such as Haverfordwest and Milford Haven and the west coastal areas including Broad Haven , Solva etc would NOT be in the new seat combined with Ceredigion.. A significant part of Crabbe's voting strength in his current seat would be excluded. For that reason the figures quoted mean little - even before considering the possibility of anti-Tory tactical voting.'
Ydoethur said:
'Those are almost all Labour voting areas, especially Haverfordwest and Milford Haven which is where the bulk of the Labour vote comes from. Crabbe’s personal heartland would stay.
There are almost no Plaid Cymru voters in the Preseli area. Only 2,773 in the whole seat. They do not register. Therefore, there would be no tactical voting. You are simply making that up because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.
The bottom line is, the Tories are now reasonably strong in Ceredigion and very strong in North Pembrokeshire, Plaid are strong in Ceredigion and non-existent in North Pembrokeshire. Labour are weak in North Pembrokeshire and weakening in Ceredigion.
On these boundaries, it is a current Tory hold. Tat ay change at the next election but it’s hard to see a challenger emerging at the moment. I can’t help it if you from the safe distance of the 1950s where extra marital sex apparently never happened don’t like that. You’re wrong. '
I will make no attempt to compete with the arrogance - and general unpleasantness - clearly present in your post.
That does not alter the fact that the figures you put forward as the likely outcome in the new seat amounted to utter gibberish. You went so far as to aggregate the 2019 election outcomes in the constituencies of Ceredigion - electorate 56,250 - and Preseli Pembrokeshire - electorate 59,586 - implying that the new seat would have a combined electorate of circa 116,000. In reality, no more than circa 30% of the Preseli seat would be merged with Ceredigion - something similar to the Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat which existed 1983 - 1997.Effectively 70% of Crabbe's existing seat would remain within the residual Pembroke seat. Plaid does have pockets of support in North Pembrokeshire - in particular , it has elected councillors in the Fishguard area over an extended period - though I accept that personal support for local election candidates matters a great deal in an area where party politics in local government has been culturally alien - as reflected by the fact that most councillors bear no party label
I also find the suggestion that Crabbe as a non-Welsh speaker would be a good choice for the new combined seat to be 'interesting'. When did Ceredigion last have such an MP?
Sorry - misread your comments
Problem with being old !!!!
Or Boris might lose interest, retire and be replaced by a more conventional Conservative Prime Minister who crashes the economy.
https://twitter.com/North_Hants4eu/status/1378107372888002565
LMAO
For the rest, whatever. If you don’t like the figures, you can ignore them. That’s your prerogative.
(By the way, are you sure Crabbe doesn’t speak Welsh? My distinct impression was that he does, although I could be wrong.)
Edit - come to think of it, I’m amazed the poster in question didn’t go with that as a reason why he shouldn’t be an MP
So very similar to Williams in that respect.
Another point to make of course is that the likely new Pembroke seat containing Milford Haven and Haverfordwest really does look very tight between the Tories and Labour, while Carmarthenshire is no gimme for the Tories either although I would expect them to win it. In fact, of the four Dyfed seats Ceredigion a Breseli probably looks the safest for the Tories.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/rise-in-union-jack-flag-waving-is-a-sign-of-deep-anxiety-in-the-uk-1.4525352
Interesting to see the perspective of our nearest neighbour.
Personally I find flag battles, on either side, to be tiresomely juvenile. Yes, we have a flag. So does everyone else - after these sorts of shenanigans https://youtu.be/_9W1zTEuKLY - so what?
The country has been awash with PPE for many months with much of it produced in the UK.
Perhaps you think a magic wand could have been waved last March with PPE immediately appearing.
https://twitter.com/FrightfulHob/status/1378472248139452420?s=19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1xrNaTO1bI
But I don't recall any of the people who subsequently frothed about PPE shortages ever having done so.
Likewise when the civil service and the NHS tries to shift its PPE purchasing back to Asian sweatshops in order to saving a few pounds each year I suspect there will be a deafening silence from the PPE frothers.
Happy Easter all. To David's excellent paean to political flexibility, I shall add only Theognis of Megara's elegiacs on the nature of the octopus:
θυμέ, φίλους κατὰ πάντας ἐπίστρεφε ποικίλον ἦθος,
ὀργὴν συμμίσγων ἥντιν᾿ ἕκαστος ἔχει.
πουλύπου ὀργὴν ἴσχε πολυπλόκου, ὃς ποτὶ πέτρῃ
τῇ προσομιλήσῃ, τοῖος ἰδεῖν ἐφάνη.
νῦν μὲν τῇδ᾽ ἐφέπου, τοτὲ δ᾽ ἀλλοῖος χρόα γίνου.
κρέσσων τοι σοφίη γίνεται ἀτροπίης...
'My heart, to all your friends display a kaleidoscopic character,
melding with your own the temperament of each.
Take on the nature of the multiform, multi-limbed one, who
seems no different than the rock to which he clings.
For now, hold on to this one, then adopt another skin.
Mark this well: better ingenuity than inflexibility...’
As for ‘the seat will not be created,’ I’m pretty sure it still will be. The calculation goes from 29 seats on the mainland to 31. That’s probably one extra seat in the north and one in the Valleys, because that’s where all seats are slightly above tolerance. In Dyfed and Powys, they aren’t. There might be some jiggery pokery around Ammanford and which seat it goes into, but that’s about it. (Labour should be praying it goes into Llanelli, frankly, because that gives them a decent chance of two holds. If it goes into Carmarthenshire, it’s not out of the question they could end up with no seats at all in Dyfed.)
I’m not sure why you’re getting so agitated. You’re wrong, just accept it. We all make mistakes. You may not like it, but again, that’s your problem.
They seem to have got the idea that it's necessary to get 100% coverage or we will be swamped by another wave of cases, when 70% will probably do (and we're getting 90% + in the groups which are actually at risk from Covid). If we have the odd outbreak amongst students who can't be bothered with a jab, so what? It's not like it's going to escape and spread up the age groups any more.
If politics gets any worse England will stop buying oats with a kilt on it, stick to Canadian and US forms of whisky or what ever they call it and stop eating kippers. End of civilisation.
EC, based on GE17, made the then redrawn Ceredigion a Breseli very close between all 4 parties
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.py?seat=Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire
Ceredigion a Breseli is Plaid Cymru (with Tories second) on GE17. But, surely it is a Tory seat with GE19 share.
The Tory position in the Pembroke South part of CW&PS looks even stronger on electoral calculus, based on GE19 (Labour only won Narbeth & Pembroke Dock).
The then redrawn Pembrokeshire Mid and South is a projected Tory hold based on GE17. It must be very comfortable on GE19 results.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork.py?seat=Pembrokeshire Mid and South
--------
That said, Ceredigion voters have historically proved very adapt at coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory. And Ceredigion is a (two times) University seat -- these have been drifting away from the Tories everywhere.
So, my guess is -- if the boundary commissioners divvy up the seats as we think -- Ceredigion a Breseli will actually be a Plaid Cymru seat (with Tories a close second) and Pembrokeshire Mid and South will be a Tory seat (with Labour second).
Do you have a specialist vanilla account, or do you post through a linked sign in? Was wondering if that might explain it.
Actually you become a very happy bunny (Easter ref) since Cranachan well made is simply the best pudding ever invented.
But you are probably right that the "lessons will be learned" mob will learn nothing. That seems to be the usual experience.
Mathematician on TV the other day was suggesting with a R0 of about 3.5 for the Kent variant, an effectiveness of stopping transmission of 66% (seen as optimistic by the people on TV) then you are going to need a lot more than 95% take up to provide herd immunity.
Plus, there is no point in having overall herd immunity if that is an average over a very large area as you'll have large parts of society hidden away with no herd immunity and the virus could easily run rampantly through those parts of the country, re-filling hospitals etc.
I’ve been thinking about the implications of COVID passports for football grounds. During the limited reopening at the end of 2020, fans had to give their details upfront. Now, many season tickets get used by multiple people so fans will need to plan ahead and it won’t be possible to make last minute swaps if someone can’t go.
I’m especially interested as to how this will work for away fans. Unfortunately at my club Arsenal it has become a closed shop with the same c.3,000 fans controlling access to away tickets. But very few of them actually go to all the games with a lot touting going on. So an effective ID system would be interesting.
Anyway, I think I’ll email my MP to let him know that I think it’s bonkers. I’ve never written to him before and I understand MPs get nervous when they get emails from people who they don’t normally hear from.
I don’t necessarily agree with you about ‘coalescing around the strongest anti-Tory’ either. That was true in the 70s and 80s when the Tories were the main opposition, but I don’t think it’s true today. What appears to have happened instead is that the Liberal Democrat voters, in particular, have started peeling away from the party. That’s a Wales-wide phenomenon that you can see in say, Montgomeryshire and other seats where they used to be very strong (Cardiff Central). I think Mid and South Pembroke will be quite tight, with a lot of the Labour vote in Milford Haven and Haverfordwest and the loss of West Carmarthenshire (which is quite Tory) making it more marginal. Equally, I agree it’s a notional hold at this moment,
The issue for both is that there aren’t many votes to swing. People tend to be quite entrenched. But it can happen. The father of a friend of mine was a Tory councillor in Pembroke Dock and was so confident of a hold he went on holiday during the campaign. He lost. To his son’s girlfriend. That caused some, ummm, interesting conversations...
Edit - incidentally, there will not be a university in Lampeter by the next election, as it will be closing in the next couple of years.
As for COVID going through the unvaccinated, that’s something we’ll have to live with (even if some of them won’t). There’s not enough anti vaxxers to cause too much trouble for the NHS.
But what we do need is a basic capacity which can then be quickly expanded during a crisis.
Given that any money spent on UK produced PPE will recirculate through the economy the actual cost would be minimal.
The Tories are not regularly second in Ceredigion - despite being so in 2019 on 22% of the vote. In 2017 they were 4th - and in 2015 came 3rd with 11%. Further back, the party regularly lost its deposit. Any sniff of a Tory win would see Labour and LD voters - 33% in 2019 - tactically switching to Plaid to stop them.
We do not know, yet, how many will not take the jab, if 10% don't take it that will lead to thousands more deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed.
My wife is already on a 12+month waiting list for an operation to stop her being in continual pain, all her life, that has already been delayed nearly a year.
Allowing the NHS to for ever be overwhelmed does not just harm those who chose not to take the vaccine, but also those who have taken the vaccine but need medical treatment for other reasons.
Which is certainly not going to happen if 90% have been vaccinated and with many of the 10% having already acquired immunity from previous infection.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/03/time-discussion-covid-certification/
Fair to say that the Sunday Telegraph’s commenters are not exactly enamoured by the idea, for anything except international travel.
Don't see why that would not repeat over the next 12months if you let the virus rip through that 10% with no immunity.
I do pity the poor BCfEngland trying to draw up the Berkshire-Hampshire shared constituency. Using the boundary assistant tool it appears that in a lot of places quite illogical constituencies will have to be created in order to fit within the tight requirements.
Right.
I love Scotland, I really do, but I fear for its future prosperity if it’s driven by logic like that.
Depressing.
Perhaps you can explain why you think infection rates are going to increase so much when 90% are going to be vaccinated ?
On your scenario the Israeli health service should have been overwhelmed instead of the opposite happening.
Given we won't be at herd immunity, given the rates will therefore rise exponentially, I see no reason why teh HNS won't eventually be overwhelmed again.
But to lockdown nutters the number required for herd immunity is always higher than you will have.
But who the fuck cares? It’s one household.
I shall investigate.