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A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority – politicalbettin
A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
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I fear the result might be similar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election
Exactly 35 months from now we will be reading our Sunday newspapers about who has won the UK General Election (unless the tories repeal the FPA and call it sooner). 35 months. Do you really think the global covid pandemic will have entirely disappeared by then? I increasingly don't.
If the vaccine rollout works and Britain is moving again, albeit under traffic lights and passports, then Johnson will take much of the credit, whether that's entirely justified or not.
Much as it pains some of us, I don't think we should rule out a Boris Johnson landslide.
If you can reach across the political divide, as Boris Johnson also successfully did by winning Labour London for the tories, then you are a dangerous and formidable politician.
We underestimate Boris at our peril.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna5151912
Jeez. 3 polls putting the tories 8% ahead of Labour and one putting them 10% ahead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021
I don't see it putting together the required coalition of voters it needs to take from the Conservatives. Not least because the only policies differentiating the parties will look bat-shit crazy to those they need to convince. Boris will shamelessly nick any that look like winners before they can even make the Labour Manifesto. Call Boris a scoundrel and a rogue all the day long, but he's also a populist. He knows what will be bought by the voters. He has no issues rebadging that as Tory policy.
Any issue of the day that comes up will see Labour take the position that comforts its ever dwindling band of current voters. And drives those that have now tried voting Tory further away.
Yep it's a mild infringement of liberty but on the grand scale, set against the pandemic? They will mean we return to a new normality.
You'll have to suck it up I'm afraid.
Thatcher until the poll tax did it with her right to buy: she totally got aspiration
Blair until Iraq did it brilliantly for the same reason: aspiration all wrapped up in Cool Britannia
Boris did it with Brexit Britain
All 3 won support across the political divide. Thatcher won huge working class support (at the beginning). Blair won huge middle class support. And Boris won huge red wall Labour Brexit support.
All 3 are political giants whatever Alan Duncan might like to think.
Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair, 124 gains seem a long way off, especially as a significant number of them need to be in Scotland.
'vaccine passports will be the way ahead.'
Mr. Light, Boris Johnson is a charismatic chap and a great campaigner. He's also a self-absorbed incompetent.
Also, 'vaccine passport' is a misleading term. You don't need a passport to go to a shop. It's for international travel.
The problem for the Tories will be when the money runs out, and spending like He does it will soon enough. Then he will be faced by either harsh austerity or major tax rises. The first won't play well in the Purple Wall, the second with his own party. Indeed I think the lack of any fiscal conservatism is what will be his downfall.
Will this happen before the next GE or after? It wouldn't surprise me if he could scrape another majority but it won't be a landslide, and Starmer may well manage to get a hung Parliament. I am no Starmer fan, and think he should go next year, but I do think he has the skillset to manage a coalition skillfully.
Which is all that now matters.
I wonder if that’s because he took no personal interest in it, seemingly leaving it all to the task force?
So Starmer needs a Blair-style result just to get a fairly small majority.
Not impossible if @Foxy is right about the options, but a big old ask.
Take away the comfort blanket of Scotland and the red king is wearing no clothes. And by 2019 even the Red Wall had realised it.
Without a total reinvention of what the Labour Party is for, the best they can ever hope for is a fragile coalition with nationalists, which would likely only serve to make them permanently unelectable.
Little of this is particularly Starmer’s fault, though arguably it was he as the face of Labour’s Brexit policy that lost the Red Wall. But he’s clearly not the solution. It’s not obvious if anyone in the current parliamentary party is either.
Well, that doesn’t look too likely at the moment, of course...
London may be his only success
https://twitter.com/_whitneywebb/status/1378334506093051904
The effort to manufacture consent for an all-encompassing digital identification system is notable given that its main selling point thus far has been coercion. We have been told that without such a system we will never be able to return to work or school, never be able to travel, or never be allowed to participate normally in the economy. While this system is being introduced in this way, it is essential to point out that coercion is a built-in part of this infrastructure and, if implemented, will be used to modify human behavior to great effect, reaching far beyond just the issue of COVID-19 vaccines.
I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. Or, rather, I wasn't until about 6 months ago. He's doing brilliantly on vaccination and I'm chilled about vaccine passports.
Like most people, I get it that they're necessary for the unlock. An intellectual debate about civil liberties is, on this particular issue, a bit arcane.
Great to see that the FA Cup semis and League Cup final will have some fans back. So cool.
Have a good day everyone.
I think the actual tests are the local elections. Bear in mind, these were last contested when Theresa May was riding at 50% in the polls and before the realities of Brexit, Covid etc hit. Moreover, they were before the full extent of local government’s financial problems were revealed, many of them caused by poor management from Tory cabinets and others caused by austerity in the centre. So there should be plenty of low-hanging fruit for Labour.
If Starmer cannot make real progress in these, and especially in those areas he needs to win back - e.g. the Midlands - that is a very bad sign for him.
Mind you, I wonder how many people even realise there are local elections happening. I’ve had nothing at all for Staffordshire. I didn’t even realise until yesterday it was one of the authorities with local elections.
They won't, but what if they lost Hartlepool? It might be keeping them awake.
Imagine the vaccine level of achievement across each Department....
But I would want to know how and whom they reported to, and for how long, before hailing it as a great breakthrough.
We’re already unlocking, without vaccine passports, and positive tests, hospitalisations, and deaths are plunging through the floor.
They are solving a problem that doesn’t exist.
Starmer’s job - indeed the job of whoever is leader now - is to restore some sanity and order to Labour after Corbyn’s catastrophic mistakes. He’s making progress on that. How much progress, we’re about to find out. Taking the next step and winning a general election is a very tough ask given where he starts from.
What is illuminating is that the tories apparently don't care what the policies being delivered are as long as its a tory PM that's delivering them. Protectionism, free trade, all the same innit?
It’s a real unforced error.
The thing is that sooner or later Johnson will have to do unpopular stuff to rein in the massive deficit.
Similarly, vaccine passports for events are going to be popular until people have to use them, then they will be as popular as the poll tax, at first ignored, then despised.
Although that’s why they’ve survived the last 300 years and the Whigs/Liberals haven’t.
Starmer needs the self confidence to be himself, to expound a different vision of Britishness, perhaps starting with the right to peaceful protest and the right to not carry an internal passport.
But it’s hardly worth rolling them out for one fairly minor type of venue which won’t be reopening until everywhere else is anyway.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a0452af4-94ce-11eb-8d6e-90b9b6b1f793?shareToken=7560e0ba15bbc55d12e2318b699a6422
Notable lack of EU registered lorries around the Dartford Crossing.
On topic, surely there's more likely to be a palace revolt than a split?
Corbynism tested to destruction the idea we could have a successful split in one of the old parties, rather than a single issue insurgent party forcing their agenda.
If there is to be a substantial split in the Tory vote on traditional fiscal prudence, it would most obviously have to migrate to the Labour Party rather than some jumped up Philip Hammond vehicle or something.
But there’s a lot of brand damage still there from Corbynism, and even from “there’s no money left”. In my view how you get to a Labour majority, is with a well marketed, common sense and proud defence of inclusive British values, including fiscal frugality, while of course keeping hold of the environmental / NHS coalition.
Starmer’s obviously not the salesperson for that pitch. It’s one more Tory majority and perhaps that salesperson will then emerge. But perhaps still they will not, there’s really no guarantee of it. After all, where is the future Blair figure in a job such as Shadow Education waiting for the next election defeat?
All of the Conservative and Unionists were expelled in favour of BoZoists
All smacks of desperation, as does this ‘relaunch’ and getting Mandelson to hold his hand
Not like Labour and the Liberals, who split more often than the Presbyterian Church.
After what we have been through, people will be expecting change (which he knows, hence build back better), and the key test will be whether he manages to deliver anything significant. Pouring zillions into a few vanity projects and continuing to look out for the next younger woman won't cut it.
Turning a blind eye to antisemitism for years is as bad as anything on the charge sheet against Boris.
So we are going to see a lot more borrowing. A lot more public investment. A lot of "picking winners" some of which will prove to be duds. A lot more money spent on public services, especially health. A lot of money spent on rhe red wall seats that Labour took for granted and neglected for so long. Sir Keir will continue to look as if he has just bitten into a lemon. He will be left with nowhere to go. He is going to lose. A Hague result where an awful situation gets no worse might be the best he can hope for.
Of course a lot of people will say, well, Boris was just lucky. Again. It must make him laugh.
The real question is whether he’s the best bag holder until the next Parliament or there’s someone else who might lose less badly and prepare the wicket to make 2028(ish) Labour majority territory. I don’t know the answer to that, no doubt the likes of Mandy are trying to figure it out.
We have yet to have gatherings of people in numbers larger than six, let alone significant crowd events.
Vaccine passports will be used.
Come back here in six months and they will be accepted as normal and all the fuss will have been seen to have been for nothing.
The hubris that we see now from Tory PB posters is much like what we saw in Mrs Thatchers third term, and just look at how that ended.
Helping our friends to the detriment of others is, of course a human characteristic. Not necessarily one of the more desirable ones.
His opponents know, it his supporters know it, more and more of the public know it - but he's shit scared to tell the truth in case he does even worse that Corbyn who, let's not forget, he loyally served despite the anti-semitism, etc, etc
As for Boris' electoral prospects, although he looks bullet proof now, he is a fake and will be found out. How? Fuck knows but he will be.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/apr/03/fit-in-my-40s-twistin-my-melon-with-bez
Starmer is a Kinnock/Smith fellow, not a Blair.
To put a seasonal twist on it, he is John the Baptist, not the Messiah.
Off to work for me though...
Starmer will struggle at the next election, but because he's mediocre and uninspiring, except to soft LibDems, not because Corbyn did terribly five years before.
Labour may struggle too, but because it hasn't found a convincing message where there is no money for its public sector client base, rather than because last time the red wall wanted Brexit.
One thing it does do, though, is affect party morale going into the contest.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1378610560485429250?s=20
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1378611514236669952?s=20
Though although some SNP SIndy supporters might feel aggrieved and misled, far from clear that any law has been broken, despite what the Vicar of Bath may wish.....
https://twitter.com/Sunday_Mail/status/1378608157413498885?s=20
Take a simple example, his 2 letters about Brexit one for and one against. Where do you think that story came from? It was a brilliant sleight of hand and those who loathe him cannot resist picking that scab again and again. They see insincerity and fakeness. Others see pragmatism and flexibility.
I wish we had a PM with greater personal integrity, who was less grandiose, who seemed a bit more focused and didn't waste money on silly ideas. But we are seeing a political genius at work and all the venting in the world won't change that.
Everybody is ignoring it because Covid, but it remains a disaster.
Supermarket shelves are full only because we have not implemented Brexit yet, but orders and deliveries for other good are delayed by weeks.
Even John Redwood is beginning to realise he isn't getting the sunlit uplands he wanted.
So we have BINO.
@DavidL would cite this as evidence of his genius. Me? I'm not so sure.
The charge against Johnson's Government is corruption, nepotism and patronage is rife from many quarters. Jenrick and the pornographer, Hancock and his neighbour, the fast track PPE list of Tory donors, Dido Harding's appointment, travel policy exemptions to suit Stanley Johnson. And of course Johnson's back catalogue for "spaffing" public money pre-dates his premiership. Ms. Arcuri, the Garden Bridge etc. etc
However, at the moment the public is comfortable with £38b on test and trace, but not the alleged interests of Joe Anderson. Johnson is the "sword of truth" (we know where that led a Conservative Grandee a couple of decades ago) and Starmer (by the evidence from these polls) an alleged liar.
Government corruption can be ignored, if the voters so wish, but when the evidence is there it shouldn't be denied, or excused because "they are all at it". It's our money, not theirs!
Brexit has happened and by 2024 the agenda will be very different
I see Hunky Dunky's diary is not being met with unalloyed praise......