Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
I don't think any of his haters have denied that Johnson is a very successful con man, whether lying to women or to the people, nor that he can be amusing.
We just think that his mendacious bumbling makes him unsuitable for public office.
It is quite possible that he can con the electorate again, by bribing them with their own money, but he is still the worst PM of modern times.
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
Often politicians fall over something that was previously seen as their strength: see Thatcher over the poll tax - which hurt her natural constituency; Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent- when he was seen as the one who could keep the unions in check.
So when Boris fails it will be because he fails at something he was thought to be good at. His well-known weaknesses are maybe not where we should be looking. Just a thought.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
If things become very bitter between the SNP and ALBA, a significant number of supporters of the latter might well abstain from casting a vote in the constituency ballot - indeed a few may decide to support other parties out of spite!
I still find it remarkable that two parties that hate each other viscerally at many levels are supposed to be a good thing for their common aim. It’s just weird.
All down to Labour's crap voting system that was to ensure the independence supporters never got a majority, they did a grand job.
The voting system was designed (by the LDs) to stop Labour winning a majority. The SNP (6 MPs in 1997) weren't a consideration. If Labour had had their way, the system would be like Wales, where no matter how badly Labour do, they always get the FM.
Actually it was a compromise, since the Lib Dems insisted that PR of some kind was at least to be considered by the Scottish Constitutional Convention. In fact the Lib Dems would have preferred STV. However, although Labour initially refused to deal with Malcolm Bruce on that basis, the Lib Dems forced the issue, and Labour, and in particular Donald Dewar, realized that the Convention without the Lib Dems would have been a dead letter especially after Gordon Wilson flounced.
Labour had a landslide majority and set the terms of the Convention.
The Lib Dems were an irrelevance and they remain so now after PR.
Its almost as if the Lib Dems don't represent people and its not the voting system that stymies them!
I think he’s talking about the earlier cross-political and indeed cross-society convention that reported in 1995, which is what Labour used as the basis for its devolutionary blueprint.
So, before they had a landslide majority.
Yes the "cross-political" convention that excluded Tories, excluded the SNP. 🙄
So a Labour/Lib-Dem fudge. That could have been replaced with a Labour fudge. There was nothing representative about it.
The Convention did not exclude the Tories or the SNP, those parties chose not to take part. (In fact quite a few SNP members did make personal contributions). Even without them, the Convention did help form the national consensus that the Scottish Parliament should be restored.
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
Surely staff not yet vaccinated will be better protected if all their customers have to sow they have been vaccinated?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
Surely staff not yet vaccinated will be better protected if all their customers have to sow they have been vaccinated?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
Often politicians fall over something that was previously seen as their strength
I'd say that was a given.
Those who don't make it as leaders fail because of their weaknesses. Those who do make it as leaders fail when their strengths become a weakness over time.
Decisiveness into closemindedness. Boldness into recklessness. Flexibility into vacillation. Confidence into arrogance. And so on.
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
Surely staff not yet vaccinated will be better protected if all their customers have to sow they have been vaccinated?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
By the time everyone has been offered it, we'll be well over 85% take-up, possibly 90%, so vaccine passports would just be an outrageous imposition on the liberties of 100% of the population purely out of spite towards a small minority which will thumb its nose anyway - if we trust vaccines work then vaccine passports won't be needed with our take up levels.
I'm leaving to one side the suggestion they'd be on the NHS app and assuming the suggestion that installing a government surveillance app would be mandatory to live any sort of life is just being flown up the flag to make the final policy seem 'moderate'.
Well quite. Talking heads on the internet have been saying this for getting on for a year now. Now the problem with 'talking heads on the internet' is that some of them are out and out loons. 'Bloke on twitter says' is never good enough on its own. But you'd have thought somewhere among 650 MPs and a whole industry of semi-reputable 'journalists' there might have been enough curuousity usity to at least dig into this aspect a bit.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
Often politicians fall over something that was previously seen as their strength: see Thatcher over the poll tax - which hurt her natural constituency; Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent- when he was seen as the one who could keep the unions in check.
So when Boris fails it will be because he fails at something he was thought to be good at. His well-known weaknesses are maybe not where we should be looking. Just a thought.
Blimey, if we need to find something that he's good at, he could be there forever! ☹️
BTW the quote in the Mirror story where Boris is saying about the bishop kicking a hole in a stained glass window has a certain ring of truth. It is a straight quote from PG Wodehouse (I think it's Mulliner but not sure). Boris will certainly know the quote. Less likely that American blonds (though Wodehouse has plenty of them in his stories) or SM journalists do.
I think you have the wrong Old Alleynian.
“It was a blonde. A blonde to make a bishop kick a hole in a stained-glass window.” (Farewell, My Lovely).
The Scots know, whether they admit it or not, that leaving the UK will at best make them poorer and at worst lead to ‘economic havoc.’
Just as the Irish did in 1922.
That on its own is not going to be enough to persuade them it is a bad idea to do it.
Either make a positive case for staying together, or accept Scotland will go Indie.
Good night.
Quite. In much the same way, Brexit Leave voters were not swayed by economic arguments.
The economic arguments in the two cases are different in one crucial respect. The UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU. Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK.
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
They just extended the emergency powers for 6 months, so they don't have to consult anybody. And why would they if they don't have to?
And Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition didn't even bother to question whether the extension was necessary. What a pitiful shower.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
Often politicians fall over something that was previously seen as their strength: see Thatcher over the poll tax - which hurt her natural constituency; Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent- when he was seen as the one who could keep the unions in check.
So when Boris fails it will be because he fails at something he was thought to be good at. His well-known weaknesses are maybe not where we should be looking. Just a thought.
There's a lot in this. I have a feeling that Boris is trying to take account of that risk. He is determined to control his future and be the one exception to that universal rule of the tragic end - something at times you would have thought impossible to happen to post war Churchill, Blair or Mrs Thatcher, or even the sort of end Cameron had.
What one can say is that in his tightrope effort to cross the Niagara on a unicycle while juggling and doing handstands he has gone a remarkable distance and hasn't fallen off. I would, marginally, back him to stop being PM at a time of his apparent choosing in order to do the next thing. If stuff thus far hasn't stopped him, what on earth will? It is one of the greatest shows in modern politics. What with that and all the Scotland farrago too. What larks.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
I never had a high opinion of Jeremy Hunt before ..... I am changing my mind.
This is evidence of real acuity (& you don't get praise for any politicians from @YBarddCwsc very often).
Perhaps Hunt is just clearing the decks for a return to cabinet. It wasn't Johnson that got anything wrong in the early days of the pandemic, it was all the fault of SAGE. That should tickle the fancy of the Boris fanbois on PB.
On another note, surely they can start moving down the age ranges again soon? I don't actually know of anyone apart from Contrarian who is over 50 and who hasn't been vaccinated. I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
They've got more cases than us from half as many tests, but markedly fewer deaths. I'm sure there'll be reporting procedure differences, and demographics involved, but dare I say it, maybe our health service isn't very good?
If the roles were reversed, Boris would have been asked for 40 minutes on why we aren't vaccinating like Germany.... actually who am I kidding, it would have been 1 question on this based on incorrect stats and 35 minutes on if we can go on foreign summer holidays this year....
The Scots know, whether they admit it or not, that leaving the UK will at best make them poorer and at worst lead to ‘economic havoc.’
Just as the Irish did in 1922.
That on its own is not going to be enough to persuade them it is a bad idea to do it.
Either make a positive case for staying together, or accept Scotland will go Indie.
Good night.
Quite. In much the same way, Brexit Leave voters were not swayed by economic arguments.
The economic arguments in the two cases are different in one crucial respect. The UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU. Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK.
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
The Brexit debate and the Scotland debate has a key difference. In the Scotland debate both sides know without hesitation or doubt that this is a sovereignty issue as well as an economic one.
In the Brexit debate only one side (Brexit) could say that it was both a sovereignty and economic issue. The Remain side had one hand tied behind its back because it decided to pretend that it was not a sovereignty issue when everyone knew that it was.
For many this made the remain case a joke and fundamentally dishonest.
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
They just extended the emergency powers for 6 months, so they don't have to consult anybody. And why would they if they don't have to?
And Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition didn't even bother to question whether the extension was necessary. What a pitiful shower.
I think that there will be far too much pushback from people if they try and implement it to be honest. There are quite a number of people that seem quite irate at the thought of having to show anything to go about a normal life
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
Obesity is lower in France I think. Haven't checked the data recently.
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Excellent. That gives us quite a margin of safety for getting everyone done by the end of Q2.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
I never had a high opinion of Jeremy Hunt before ..... I am changing my mind.
This is evidence of real acuity (& you don't get praise for any politicians from @YBarddCwsc very often).
Perhaps Hunt is just clearing the decks for a return to cabinet. It wasn't Johnson that got anything wrong in the early days of the pandemic, it was all the fault of SAGE. That should tickle the fancy of the Boris fanbois on PB.
Most MPs are arts/humanities graduates. I think it is difficult for any such MP to have the confidence to criticise SAGE, or even to know the right questions to ask about the science.
And that surely applies to Johnson, all the Cabinet (& Shadow Cabinet for that matter). Johnson is for sure a pretty average intellect.
Still, I expect everyone on SAGE will be rewarded with a gong.
And awkward people like @YBarddCwsc (and it appears Jeremy Hunt) will be told to STFU.
But, it is an interesting question as to how the scientific expertise of the nation is harnessed to give advice to the Government in an emergency.
The Scots know, whether they admit it or not, that leaving the UK will at best make them poorer and at worst lead to ‘economic havoc.’
Just as the Irish did in 1922.
That on its own is not going to be enough to persuade them it is a bad idea to do it.
Either make a positive case for staying together, or accept Scotland will go Indie.
Good night.
Quite. In much the same way, Brexit Leave voters were not swayed by economic arguments.
The economic arguments in the two cases are different in one crucial respect. The UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU. Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK.
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
The Brexit debate and the Scotland debate has a key difference. In the Scotland debate both sides know without hesitation or doubt that this is a sovereignty issue as well as an economic one.
In the Brexit debate only one side (Brexit) could say that it was both a sovereignty and economic issue. The Remain side had one hand tied behind its back because it decided to pretend that it was not a sovereignty issue when everyone knew that it was.
For many this made the remain case a joke and fundamentally dishonest.
A nice bit of evening sunshine, in readiness for the heatwave to come, and even the wind has dropped a bit. Cant complain.
Leon is the sort of person who if given a million pounds in gold would complain it was too heavy.
I am equally over-enthusiastic and prone to ridiculous negativity, often at the same time
But it does feel like this spring is unusually cold and grey, so far. That may, however, be a product of the absurdly sunny and lovely spring we had last year. The sunniest on record, basically
Yes, it is. So far, it has been a perfectly normal spring. Last year was anything but normal due to the lack of emissions especially in China.
The other thing that might be fooling you is that January and February were quite cold and wet - not ridiculously so, but above average - as was the autumn. So it feels like we have been in a miserable climate situation ever since October.
Yes, that sounds about right
Also, personally, pre-plague, I used to travel a LOT, especially during the dire English winter. I always escaped somewhere nice and hot, at least for a fortnight, usually MUCH more than that, from October-March
This is probably the first time in 20 years I have spent an entire autumn and winter in the UK. And I can safely say that this modest calamity will never happen again, pandemics permitting
In a normal year I like to travel in the autumn, and then next February or March. January I'm just too fucking depressed to enjoy it. Last year I was in Cyprus, next year I should be too as I have a deferred place in the Cyprus Half Marathon. This year was supposed to be Morocco :-(
Try Thailand in January. It is fantastic. You don't need to go the islands or countryside, Bangkok is fine. The weather is PERFECT. Clear, very warm, sunny, but not stifling. You barely see a cloud or a drop of rain from one week to the next.
Everyone is in a relaxed good mood, it is like the Mediterranean in mid June. The evenings are delicious. The warm tropical nights, the sultry stars....
Indeed. Used to go there every Chinese New Year. Can confirm February is a lush time to go there too. Massive skies. Few tourists.
Well quite. Talking heads on the internet have been saying this for getting on for a year now. Now the problem with 'talking heads on the internet' is that some of them are out and out loons. 'Bloke on twitter says' is never good enough on its own. But you'd have thought somewhere among 650 MPs and a whole industry of semi-reputable 'journalists' there might have been enough curuousity usity to at least dig into this aspect a bit.
The average 10 year old could have seen that 12 months ago the right decision was to close the borders first and bring in a domestic lockdown second (or at the same time).
Apparently SAGE didn't even consider this, according to Neil Ferguson.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
I *believe* that the cases started taking off about 2 weeks ago - and we are now seeing concerns about ICUs in Paris filling up. Unless something changes, what happens next is maths. Horrible maths.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
They've got more cases than us from half as many tests, but markedly fewer deaths. I'm sure there'll be reporting procedure differences, and demographics involved, but dare I say it, maybe our health service isn't very good?
Maybe they are just targeting their tests better.
I don't think there are big differences in how covid cases are treated internationally. Essentially it is supportive with oxygen and organ support, and anti inflammatory while it passes.
I think in France it is very patchy. Awful in some places while other Departments untouched.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
Obesity is lower in France I think. Haven't checked the data recently.
Yes, UK obesity rate is 27.8%; French rate is 21.6% according to Wiki. So the French obesity rate is roughly a quarter lower than the UK's Must be all those croissants.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
I never had a high opinion of Jeremy Hunt before ..... I am changing my mind.
This is evidence of real acuity (& you don't get praise for any politicians from @YBarddCwsc very often).
Perhaps Hunt is just clearing the decks for a return to cabinet. It wasn't Johnson that got anything wrong in the early days of the pandemic, it was all the fault of SAGE. That should tickle the fancy of the Boris fanbois on PB.
Most MPs are arts/humanities graduates. I think it is difficult for any such MP to have the confidence to criticise SAGE, or even to know the right questions to ask about the science.
And that surely applies to Johnson, all the Cabinet (& Shadow Cabinet for that matter). Johnson is for sure a pretty average intellect.
Still, I expect everyone on SAGE will be rewarded with a gong.
And awkward people like @YBarddCwsc (and it appears Jeremy Hunt) will be told to STFU.
But, it is an interesting question as to how the scientific expertise of the nation is harnessed to give advice to the Government in an emergency.
A fair point, but Hunt making peace with Johnson can't be bad for his career and hence future (leadership) profile.
Starmer is Labour leader because he held his nose inside Corbyn's stinking tent. Hunt makes no further bids for PM whilst he is outside Johnson's tent.
Coming to a quarantine hotel near you. 90 days are up:
Have we covered b those one. I wonder if this will get more prominence in the days and weeks ahead? 500 'in the first week' suggests a lot more to follow and I wonder if other countries will be planning similar.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
They've got more cases than us from half as many tests, but markedly fewer deaths. I'm sure there'll be reporting procedure differences, and demographics involved, but dare I say it, maybe our health service isn't very good?
Could be any number of reasons. It might all shake out over the couple of years after this shitshow is finally over.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
Glossop ? ALways felt weird to be back in Derbyshire after travelling over the pennines FROM north Derbyshire...
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
I *believe* that the cases started taking off about 2 weeks ago - and we are now seeing concerns about ICUs in Paris filling up. Unless something changes, what happens next is maths. Horrible maths.
Cases in Paris first, then deaths, then cases spread out like ripples in a pond to the rest of France, followed by more deaths.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
I *believe* that the cases started taking off about 2 weeks ago - and we are now seeing concerns about ICUs in Paris filling up. Unless something changes, what happens next is maths. Horrible maths.
Their ICU occupancy today is already comfortably ahead of our peak ventilator number, but they're nowhere near our peak deaths.
On another note, surely they can start moving down the age ranges again soon? I don't actually know of anyone apart from Contrarian who is over 50 and who hasn't been vaccinated. I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
Actually went into a bank on Thursday. To pay in some cheques and change a 50 Euro note. The bank teller had as of then been unable to get an appointment. I also received my letter that same day, also the one I had my jab on. Not sure it is only the reluctant who haven't been done just yet.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
And yet French deaths figures remain resolutely sub-400. No apparent sign of it getting out of control from the data. Anyone any idea why? Have they, despite all the faffing, actually vaccinates the small proportion most likely to die already? Has everyone likely to die from it already died?
I *believe* that the cases started taking off about 2 weeks ago - and we are now seeing concerns about ICUs in Paris filling up. Unless something changes, what happens next is maths. Horrible maths.
Their ICU occupancy today is already comfortably ahead of our peak ventilator number, but they're nowhere near our peak deaths.
It is probably some difference in how/what they count as ICU. Perhaps Foxy could tell us.
Exponential increases, sadly, mean that such distinctions are a small matter in the not very long run.
A fair point, but Hunt making peace with Johnson can't be bad for his career and hence future (leadership) profile.
Starmer is Labour leader because he held his nose inside Corbyn's stinking tent. Hunt makes no further bids for PM whilst he is outside Johnson's tent.
Does Corbyn's tent stink ? Is it his feet or his teeth ?
Or did Jeremy put the tent away while still damp ?
This site must be one of the worst sources going for weather chat. I think I have just read that our spring last year was warm due to a “lack of Chinese emissions”. I mean, what a load of utter garbage. Dear me.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
I never had a high opinion of Jeremy Hunt before ..... I am changing my mind.
This is evidence of real acuity (& you don't get praise for any politicians from @YBarddCwsc very often).
Perhaps Hunt is just clearing the decks for a return to cabinet. It wasn't Johnson that got anything wrong in the early days of the pandemic, it was all the fault of SAGE. That should tickle the fancy of the Boris fanbois on PB.
Most MPs are arts/humanities graduates. I think it is difficult for any such MP to have the confidence to criticise SAGE, or even to know the right questions to ask about the science.
And that surely applies to Johnson, all the Cabinet (& Shadow Cabinet for that matter). Johnson is for sure a pretty average intellect.
Still, I expect everyone on SAGE will be rewarded with a gong.
And awkward people like @YBarddCwsc (and it appears Jeremy Hunt) will be told to STFU.
But, it is an interesting question as to how the scientific expertise of the nation is harnessed to give advice to the Government in an emergency.
I find it hard to think of a better structure than something SAGE-like. Certainly, they got things wrong last year. And some things said on the internet were more right than SAGE were. On the other hand, many things online were much more wrong than SAGE.
Politicians can't be reading every tweet and blog from a scientist (many of whom don't have the qualifications to talk about the subject at hand, as we've seen all too much) and trying to separate right from wrong. In the end, there will have to be a relatively small group of experts who gather the evidence as best they can, and present the government with a best guess. Surely? And they will be, by human limitations, unable to sift every argument or read every rebuttal. They will get it wrong quite a lot. But I can't see what works better when advice is needed most urgently.
I have no problem with SAGE advice being published immediately. But when it's wrong, what's the feedback mechanism? Whoever shouts the loudest? Direct mail to the scientists themselves -- how would they sift the crackpots from the constructive?
I can vaguely envisage a wider scientist-led "select committee" style of hearing that interrogates SAGE members about their models and assumptions. A sort of peer review. But again its membership has to be selected carefully to avoid cranks, and I don't think it can operate in urgency.
On another note, surely they can start moving down the age ranges again soon? I don't actually know of anyone apart from Contrarian who is over 50 and who hasn't been vaccinated. I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
Actually went into a bank on Thursday. To pay in some cheques and change a 50 Euro note. The bank teller had as of then been unable to get an appointment. I also received my letter that same day, also the one I had my jab on. Not sure it is only the reluctant who haven't been done just yet.
I think there are 31.8m in the priority cohorts 1-9 (over 50s, care workers, vulnerable and at risk). Given we have done 30.15m first doses, there can't be many more over 50s to go.
A fair point, but Hunt making peace with Johnson can't be bad for his career and hence future (leadership) profile.
Starmer is Labour leader because he held his nose inside Corbyn's stinking tent. Hunt makes no further bids for PM whilst he is outside Johnson's tent.
Does Corbyn's tent stink ? Is it his feet or his teeth ?
Or did Jeremy put the tent away while still damp ?
I think it was the aroma from all that talking out of his a***. There were plenty of others at it too. Richard Burgon's emissions were bad enough, but Chris Williamson's were revolting.
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Excellent. That gives us quite a margin of safety for getting everyone done by the end of Q2.
Yes, with Novavax I don't see how it's possible for the UK to not have vaccinated everyone at least once and two thirds twice by the end of June. From my own research we have 7m worth of Pfizer doses left in terms of fully vaccinated people, 8.5m from Moderna and around 10m from Novavax due in Q2. That's 15.5m people who can be fully vaccinated or all 23m single dosed and an additional 8m getting one dose or somewhere around that depending on specific programmes and delivery timeframes. Plus all the current 30m who have already had their first dose that makes 53m for total coverage. With a 5% rejection rate only 50.4m will get it meaning we need to cover just around additional 20m first doses until the end of June. It is, IMO, a near certainty that we will get there.
A nice bit of evening sunshine, in readiness for the heatwave to come, and even the wind has dropped a bit. Cant complain.
Leon is the sort of person who if given a million pounds in gold would complain it was too heavy.
I am equally over-enthusiastic and prone to ridiculous negativity, often at the same time
But it does feel like this spring is unusually cold and grey, so far. That may, however, be a product of the absurdly sunny and lovely spring we had last year. The sunniest on record, basically
Yes, it is. So far, it has been a perfectly normal spring. Last year was anything but normal due to the lack of emissions especially in China.
The other thing that might be fooling you is that January and February were quite cold and wet - not ridiculously so, but above average - as was the autumn. So it feels like we have been in a miserable climate situation ever since October.
Is there a proven correlation between the drop in emissions and our sensational spring in 2020?
That would surprise me
No, or at least, not so far as I know.
Next question - is it a linked that when emissions drop suddenly and substantially fewer clouds are seeded and therefore more solar rays reach the earth? Or, is it a coincidence that this happens on both the modern occasions there was a stoppage (the other being when air traffic was suspended in the US after 9/11 and the temperature spiked 2c).
Answer - it may be a coincidence, but it seems more likely to be a link.
I hope you are not suggesting that reducing modern traffic (especially planes) will exacerbate global warming.. that will get you cancelled
Really? I thought ecowarriors like Extinction Rebellion fully approved of long distance air travel. Certainly they use it often enough:
On another note, surely they can start moving down the age ranges again soon? I don't actually know of anyone apart from Contrarian who is over 50 and who hasn't been vaccinated. I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
Actually went into a bank on Thursday. To pay in some cheques and change a 50 Euro note. The bank teller had as of then been unable to get an appointment. I also received my letter that same day, also the one I had my jab on. Not sure it is only the reluctant who haven't been done just yet.
I think there are 31.8m in the priority cohorts 1-9 (over 50s, care workers, vulnerable and at risk). Given we have done 30.15m first doses, there can't be many more over 50s to go.
Oh sure. But I do know quite a few still waiting. Most with appointments next week to be fair.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
I never had a high opinion of Jeremy Hunt before ..... I am changing my mind.
This is evidence of real acuity (& you don't get praise for any politicians from @YBarddCwsc very often).
Perhaps Hunt is just clearing the decks for a return to cabinet. It wasn't Johnson that got anything wrong in the early days of the pandemic, it was all the fault of SAGE. That should tickle the fancy of the Boris fanbois on PB.
Most MPs are arts/humanities graduates. I think it is difficult for any such MP to have the confidence to criticise SAGE, or even to know the right questions to ask about the science.
And that surely applies to Johnson, all the Cabinet (& Shadow Cabinet for that matter). Johnson is for sure a pretty average intellect.
Still, I expect everyone on SAGE will be rewarded with a gong.
And awkward people like @YBarddCwsc (and it appears Jeremy Hunt) will be told to STFU.
But, it is an interesting question as to how the scientific expertise of the nation is harnessed to give advice to the Government in an emergency.
I find it hard to think of a better structure than something SAGE-like. Certainly, they got things wrong last year. And some things said on the internet were more right than SAGE were. On the other hand, many things online were much more wrong than SAGE.
Politicians can't be reading every tweet and blog from a scientist (many of whom don't have the qualifications to talk about the subject at hand, as we've seen all too much) and trying to separate right from wrong. In the end, there will have to be a relatively small group of experts who gather the evidence as best they can, and present the government with a best guess. Surely? And they will be, by human limitations, unable to sift every argument or read every rebuttal. They will get it wrong quite a lot. But I can't see what works better when advice is needed most urgently.
I have no problem with SAGE advice being published immediately. But when it's wrong, what's the feedback mechanism? Whoever shouts the loudest? Direct mail to the scientists themselves -- how would they sift the crackpots from the constructive?
I can vaguely envisage a wider scientist-led "select committee" style of hearing that interrogates SAGE members about their models and assumptions. A sort of peer review. But again its membership has to be selected carefully to avoid cranks, and I don't think it can operate in urgency.
--AS
From memory Whitty et al repeatedly said they had no problems releasing sage advice in real time. It feels much more likely it was the politicos or civil servants who insisted on a delay in publication. We could get quick clarification on such matters with an inquiry but we are not allowed one. It also feels like the advice the govt follows is published faster than the advice they don't.
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
We will soon have the capacity to treat some of those French sick within the NHS. We wouldn't WANT to - our doctors and nurses are out on their feet. But if France wanted to work with us - we could perhaps assist to help save lives.
But we have a French President who has set a course to rob us of vaccines.
This site must be one of the worst sources going for weather chat. I think I have just read that our spring last year was warm due to a “lack of Chinese emissions”. I mean, what a load of utter garbage. Dear me.
Indeed. It was caused by a butterfly flapping its wings in the Pacific rim.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
Yes. High Peak counted as North in this, but I think otherwise sticking to the 3 Northern regions, including the Lincs unitaries..
On another note, surely they can start moving down the age ranges again soon? I don't actually know of anyone apart from Contrarian who is over 50 and who hasn't been vaccinated. I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
Actually went into a bank on Thursday. To pay in some cheques and change a 50 Euro note. The bank teller had as of then been unable to get an appointment. I also received my letter that same day, also the one I had my jab on. Not sure it is only the reluctant who haven't been done just yet.
I think there are 31.8m in the priority cohorts 1-9 (over 50s, care workers, vulnerable and at risk). Given we have done 30.15m first doses, there can't be many more over 50s to go.
Using the NIMIS numbers, there were 4,130,230 unvaccinated (not had first dose) over 50s in England, as of the 21st of March.
So say 5 million for the UK as a whole...
And we've had 2.5 million first vaccinations since then.
This site must be one of the worst sources going for weather chat. I think I have just read that our spring last year was warm due to a “lack of Chinese emissions”. I mean, what a load of utter garbage. Dear me.
The likelihood of our having a "Beast from the East" in 2018 was tracked three weeks earlier because of weather patterns forming over northern India. That borders China.....
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Excellent. That gives us quite a margin of safety for getting everyone done by the end of Q2.
Yes, with Novavax I don't see how it's possible for the UK to not have vaccinated everyone at least once and two thirds twice by the end of June. From my own research we have 7m worth of Pfizer doses left in terms of fully vaccinated people, 8.5m from Moderna and around 10m from Novavax due in Q2. That's 15.5m people who can be fully vaccinated or all 23m single dosed and an additional 8m getting one dose or somewhere around that depending on specific programmes and delivery timeframes. Plus all the current 30m who have already had their first dose that makes 53m for total coverage. With a 5% rejection rate only 50.4m will get it meaning we need to cover just around additional 20m first doses until the end of June. It is, IMO, a near certainty that we will get there.
With 100% take up (unlikely) we'd need to vaccinate at a rate of 578k first and second doses per day. At 95% uptake it becomes 533k per day required.
The numbers will actually probably be better than that and we'll end up doing 550-600k per day and get through everyone a bit faster with a few big weeks when Moderna and Novavax arrive in larger quantities and the NHS has stockpiled enough Pfizer doses to restart the first doses programme for that too plus whatever AZ we can get.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
Rory Stewart was pointing out in real time last March the limitations of Sage and that while they gave good scientific analysis of what was going on it was up to the politicians to ask the right questions, understand properly the limitations of the answers and take decisive action based on the overall picture rather than hiding behind the 'scientific advice'.
This site must be one of the worst sources going for weather chat. I think I have just read that our spring last year was warm due to a “lack of Chinese emissions”. I mean, what a load of utter garbage. Dear me.
Well exactly.
Everyone knows that the unprecedented sunny weather last year was down to the libations I poured upon the altar of Apollo.
I tried offering him another bottle of plonk this year as well, but clearly the sacrifice was in vain. Apollo can be a most capricious god.
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Moderna was included in the list of viruses covered in the Wockhardt contract in August 2020.
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Excellent. That gives us quite a margin of safety for getting everyone done by the end of Q2.
Yes, with Novavax I don't see how it's possible for the UK to not have vaccinated everyone at least once and two thirds twice by the end of June. From my own research we have 7m worth of Pfizer doses left in terms of fully vaccinated people, 8.5m from Moderna and around 10m from Novavax due in Q2. That's 15.5m people who can be fully vaccinated or all 23m single dosed and an additional 8m getting one dose or somewhere around that depending on specific programmes and delivery timeframes. Plus all the current 30m who have already had their first dose that makes 53m for total coverage. With a 5% rejection rate only 50.4m will get it meaning we need to cover just around additional 20m first doses until the end of June. It is, IMO, a near certainty that we will get there.
plus whatever AZ we can get.
Do you have any info on how much (if any) we are expecting from the Netherlands plant?
Using the NIMIS numbers, there were 4,130,230 unvaccinated (not had first dose) over 50s in England, as of the 21st of March.
So say 5 million for the UK as a whole...
And we've had 2.5 million first vaccinations since then.
Using those same numbers, I've worked out 59% of over 50s in Newham have had their first vaccination (78% of all those over 75). I'd estimate 36,000 people in Newham over 50 have yet to have a first vaccination. The equivalent number in Havering is less than 20,000 so there's still ground to be covered.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
I don't think any of his haters have denied that Johnson is a very successful con man, whether lying to women or to the people, nor that he can be amusing.
We just think that his mendacious bumbling makes him unsuitable for public office.
It is quite possible that he can con the electorate again, by bribing them with their own money, but he is still the worst PM of modern times.
Just wondering, is it a function of our changed society, the declining importance of the dead tree press or jusr Boris, that the Mirror have clearly paid big bucks for the dirt on the PMs affair and it is basically getting about as much coverage as a similar story of a footballer been caught playing away?
I shouldn’t be surprised, it is one of the stranger symptoms of Boris Derangement Syndrome. The sufferer believes that banging on about things they consider bad news for Boris, even though it has been common knowledge for decades, will suddenly be thought of as so awful that everyone who voted for him to be Mayor of London twice, for Brexit, as Tory leader, and a PM with a massive majority, will suddenly repent. But no one cares
Often politicians fall over something that was previously seen as their strength: see Thatcher over the poll tax - which hurt her natural constituency; Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent- when he was seen as the one who could keep the unions in check.
So when Boris fails it will be because he fails at something he was thought to be good at. His well-known weaknesses are maybe not where we should be looking. Just a thought.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
Yes. High Peak counted as North in this, but I think otherwise sticking to the 3 Northern regions, including the Lincs unitaries..
So NIP is another Corbyn/Trot cult outfit? Or am I misunderstanding her appointment as candidate?
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Moderna was included in the list of viruses covered in the Wockhardt contract in August 2020.
I think they went with a Spanish company becuase there was more capacity there as Wockhart are doing AZ at scale but it is certified to do Moderna at short notice. There's no scenario where we don't get our Moderna or Pfizer doses because of some export ban. All of those headlines about the programme being delayed were based on a complete misunderstanding of what's actually happening and the contingencies that are already built into the system. The VTF did a really, really good job and a bunch of second rate EU has-beens or never-beens aren't going to have any effect on our roll out plans.
The Scots know, whether they admit it or not, that leaving the UK will at best make them poorer and at worst lead to ‘economic havoc.’
Just as the Irish did in 1922.
That on its own is not going to be enough to persuade them it is a bad idea to do it.
Either make a positive case for staying together, or accept Scotland will go Indie.
Good night.
Quite. In much the same way, Brexit Leave voters were not swayed by economic arguments.
The economic arguments in the two cases are different in one crucial respect. The UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU. Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK.
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
The problem is that the two sides don't agree whether Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK, or the other way around.
Unionists certainly believe that Scotland is a substantial recipient. Nationalists believe that Scotland is a net contributor.
Which is right? Does it matter? It isn't about what the truth is, its about what they believe and people will believe whichever they want to believe.
The truth will matter post-independence if that's voted for, but by then its too late.
This is a correct reading of what happened. It was mistakes by SAGE that indeed dictated our fate. I also agree -- and argued on pb.com at the time -- that it is wrong to punish individual scientists, but SAGE is an anachronism better suited to the 1960s. There were scientific blogs that picked out SAGE's mistakes weeks before SAGE did.
Jeremy Hunt appears to be the first politician to have deduced all this.
Rory Stewart was pointing out in real time last March the limitations of Sage and that while they gave good scientific analysis of what was going on it was up to the politicians to ask the right questions, understand properly the limitations of the answers and take decisive action based on the overall picture rather than hiding behind the 'scientific advice'.
But, I think SAGE did **not** give a good scientific analysis of what was going on. That is the problem.
Only other scientists could have detected the errors in what was the groupthink of SAGE in Spring last year.
I don't think it is fair to expect politicians -- without much or any scientific training -- to ask the right questions when presented with modelling/statistical analyses.
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
Surely staff not yet vaccinated will be better protected if all their customers have to sow they have been vaccinated?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
On Moderna: one reads that the likely delivery due in April is about 500,000 doses. So, happy days are here again for 49-and-a-half year olds. Bugger all use to anyone else.
Months of lovely waiting still stretches into the distance. Joy.
That's just the first delivery, not the whole April consignment. The first delivery of AZ was about 500k, we've had around 15m delivered since then. The media have got morons researching this stuff.
AIUI, the Lonza plant is Switzerland is ramping pretty quickly, and they should be producing 800k doses a day by the middle of April.
Also worth noting that J&J is delivering 11 million doses to the US government this coming week, so they must be pretty close to 1.5m doses a day.
I assume getting them to the UK will be a bit like the Berlin airlift.
The uk has only ordered 7m Moderna (I believe) so it's barely more than a week's production for the plant. The bigger issue is that Moderna is currently supposed to be "filled" (i.e. put into vials) in Spain. However, it would be pretty easy for Moderna to shift location for fill, if the EU was to play silly buggers.
17m, we upped the order and it's all Q2 delivery as well which is pretty good.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
Excellent. That gives us quite a margin of safety for getting everyone done by the end of Q2.
Yes, with Novavax I don't see how it's possible for the UK to not have vaccinated everyone at least once and two thirds twice by the end of June. From my own research we have 7m worth of Pfizer doses left in terms of fully vaccinated people, 8.5m from Moderna and around 10m from Novavax due in Q2. That's 15.5m people who can be fully vaccinated or all 23m single dosed and an additional 8m getting one dose or somewhere around that depending on specific programmes and delivery timeframes. Plus all the current 30m who have already had their first dose that makes 53m for total coverage. With a 5% rejection rate only 50.4m will get it meaning we need to cover just around additional 20m first doses until the end of June. It is, IMO, a near certainty that we will get there.
plus whatever AZ we can get.
Do you have any info on how much (if any) we are expecting from the Netherlands plant?
Probably none, but I'm not sure it's going to make any difference. It's why the government is extremely relaxed about the situation and will give the EU enough rope to destroy it's pharma industry for 5-10m doses of vaccine we don't really need.
The Scots know, whether they admit it or not, that leaving the UK will at best make them poorer and at worst lead to ‘economic havoc.’
Just as the Irish did in 1922.
That on its own is not going to be enough to persuade them it is a bad idea to do it.
Either make a positive case for staying together, or accept Scotland will go Indie.
Good night.
Quite. In much the same way, Brexit Leave voters were not swayed by economic arguments.
The economic arguments in the two cases are different in one crucial respect. The UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU. Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK.
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
The problem is that the two sides don't agree whether Scotland is a substantial net beneficiary from the UK, or the other way around.
Unionists certainly believe that Scotland is a substantial recipient. Nationalists believe that Scotland is a net contributor.
Which is right? Does it matter? It isn't about what the truth is, its about what they believe and people will believe whichever they want to believe.
The truth will matter post-independence if that's voted for, but by then its too late.
We know what the majority of the electorate believes because of the outcome of the first vote. If the soft middle had thought they'd be better rather than worse off they would've stampeded for the exit.
I predicted exactly this on this site a few weeks ago (as did others). I believe I said it would happen within a year. It's come even sooner
Kinabalu denied it would happen and said BAME was an excellent term
I then predicted that Kinabalu will pivot seamlessly from using-BAME to never-using-BAME, and that he would instantly start tutting at those dinosaur bigots who employ such a vulgar term.
Any thoughts from anyone on this 3.7m for Ireland story?
They spent 3 years smugly trying to **** us. At the very least we should get some grovelling thank yous secured before offering it. Preferably with their support for fixing the current NI shit show they helped facilitate.
Any thoughts from anyone on this 3.7m for Ireland story?
I wouldn't be surprised if we did it quietly in June. I'd be surprised if we did it in April though, I think it would be pretty awful for the government to give doses away while 20m under 50s are waiting to be vaccinated.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
Yes. High Peak counted as North in this, but I think otherwise sticking to the 3 Northern regions, including the Lincs unitaries..
And at what point are the government going to consult those in hospitality who have to implement this rubbish? Like, for instance, the unvaccinated staff?
Surely staff not yet vaccinated will be better protected if all their customers have to sow they have been vaccinated?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
In which case, why do we need it?
Answer: we don't.
If you believe the vaccine passport/app/pseudo-id card will not be made permanent then I have a bridge to sell you.
Don't let them take us down this road on the "it's only temporary guv" line.
Any thoughts from anyone on this 3.7m for Ireland story?
I wouldn't be surprised if we did it quietly in June. I'd be surprised if we did it in April though, I think it would be pretty awful for the government to give doses away while 20m under 50s are waiting to be vaccinated.
I don't think the government can start giving doses away until we're at the point that we've opened up almost completely. Clearly there is a case for giving RoI vaccines, but the CTA isn't a priority right now.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
Yes. High Peak counted as North in this, but I think otherwise sticking to the 3 Northern regions, including the Lincs unitaries..
South Yorkshire seems to be missing?
You mean The People's Republic of South Yorkshire, surely. (C) David Blunkett.
Unusual map of the north there. Note that it includes a small chunk of the East Midland (far north of Derbyshire). Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
The border by the Humber looks to be the old south Humberside boundary.
Yes. High Peak counted as North in this, but I think otherwise sticking to the 3 Northern regions, including the Lincs unitaries..
Comments
We just think that his mendacious bumbling makes him unsuitable for public office.
It is quite possible that he can con the electorate again, by bribing them with their own money, but he is still the worst PM of modern times.
Aiui there has already been contingency planning on this to allow for doses to be flown from Switzerland to Wockhart for fill and finish in the UK, bypassing the EU completely.
So when Boris fails it will be because he fails at something he was thought to be good at. His well-known weaknesses are maybe not where we should be looking. Just a thought.
However, I have a solar sensor so I can tell you that March 20-27th 2020 was basically wall to wall sun, particularly 25-27th. Not so much this year.
2020 wasn't that warm, but the sunshine makes all the difference.
Still, make sure you enjoy the next 2-3 days.
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
Anyway, I thought the idea is to introduce it once all adults have been offered a vaccine?
https://apnews.com/article/europe-paris-coronavirus-pandemic-france-emmanuel-macron-f0cb190686641139ffb41e493afd3d2f
critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital’s hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to save.
The sobering warnings were delivered Sunday in newspaper opinions signed by dozens of Paris-region doctors.
Those who don't make it as leaders fail because of their weaknesses. Those who do make it as leaders fail when their strengths become a weakness over time.
Decisiveness into closemindedness. Boldness into recklessness. Flexibility into vacillation. Confidence into arrogance. And so on.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376265156234248195?s=20
I'm leaving to one side the suggestion they'd be on the NHS app and assuming the suggestion that installing a government surveillance app would be mandatory to live any sort of life is just being flown up the flag to make the final policy seem 'moderate'.
Talking heads on the internet have been saying this for getting on for a year now.
Now the problem with 'talking heads on the internet' is that some of them are out and out loons. 'Bloke on twitter says' is never good enough on its own. But you'd have thought somewhere among 650 MPs and a whole industry of semi-reputable 'journalists' there might have been enough curuousity usity to at least dig into this aspect a bit.
Ahem....
“It was a blonde. A blonde to make a bishop kick a hole in a stained-glass window.” (Farewell, My Lovely).
Boris Johnson's shiny red NHS bus trick won't work for the Scottish independence movement. They can't promise to spend the recovered contributions on shiny baubles - they have to convince the soft middle of public opinion either that they somehow won't be subject to serious tax rises and spending cuts, or that tax rises and spending cuts are a price worth paying.
It's still doable - British identity is in decline everywhere, elderly unionists are shuffling off all the time - but victory in a second referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
And Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition didn't even bother to question whether the extension was necessary. What a pitiful shower.
What one can say is that in his tightrope effort to cross the Niagara on a unicycle while juggling and doing handstands he has gone a remarkable distance and hasn't fallen off. I would, marginally, back him to stop being PM at a time of his apparent choosing in order to do the next thing. If stuff thus far hasn't stopped him, what on earth will? It is one of the greatest shows in modern politics. What with that and all the Scotland farrago too. What larks.
https://twitter.com/andrewjburgin/status/1376265134230933505?s=19
I know they need to prioritise second doses at the moment, but surely we'll be doing some first jabs, even if at a much slower pace? It's surely easier ti priorituae getting those most eager from the next cohort down over the reluctant 52 year olds?
In the Brexit debate only one side (Brexit) could say that it was both a sovereignty and economic issue. The Remain side had one hand tied behind its back because it decided to pretend that it was not a sovereignty issue when everyone knew that it was.
For many this made the remain case a joke and fundamentally dishonest.
https://twitter.com/weehalfpintt/status/1376263054229434369?s=21
Not saying this is wrong - in fact it fits my own personal definition quite neatly - but not a definition I've ever seen in an official context.
And that surely applies to Johnson, all the Cabinet (& Shadow Cabinet for that matter). Johnson is for sure a pretty average intellect.
Still, I expect everyone on SAGE will be rewarded with a gong.
And awkward people like @YBarddCwsc (and it appears Jeremy Hunt) will be told to STFU.
But, it is an interesting question as to how the scientific expertise of the nation is harnessed to give advice to the Government in an emergency.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1376270936232620033
Typical Corbynista, a Tory win is better than a sellout.
Can confirm February is a lush time to go there too.
Massive skies. Few tourists.
Apparently SAGE didn't even consider this, according to Neil Ferguson.
I don't think there are big differences in how covid cases are treated internationally. Essentially it is supportive with oxygen and organ support, and anti inflammatory while it passes.
I think in France it is very patchy. Awful in some places while other Departments untouched.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
Starmer is Labour leader because he held his nose inside Corbyn's stinking tent. Hunt makes no further bids for PM whilst he is outside Johnson's tent.
Have we covered b those one. I wonder if this will get more prominence in the days and weeks ahead? 500 'in the first week' suggests a lot more to follow and I wonder if other countries will be planning similar.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/6887581/brit-ex-pats-spain-force-return-uk-within-days/
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1376273223650803712?s=20
The bank teller had as of then been unable to get an appointment.
I also received my letter that same day, also the one I had my jab on.
Not sure it is only the reluctant who haven't been done just yet.
Exponential increases, sadly, mean that such distinctions are a small matter in the not very long run.
Or did Jeremy put the tent away while still damp ?
Politicians can't be reading every tweet and blog from a scientist (many of whom don't have the qualifications to talk about the subject at hand, as we've seen all too much) and trying to separate right from wrong. In the end, there will have to be a relatively small group of experts who gather the evidence as best they can, and present the government with a best guess. Surely? And they will be, by human limitations, unable to sift every argument or read every rebuttal. They will get it wrong quite a lot. But I can't see what works better when advice is needed most urgently.
I have no problem with SAGE advice being published immediately. But when it's wrong, what's the feedback mechanism? Whoever shouts the loudest? Direct mail to the scientists themselves -- how would they sift the crackpots from the constructive?
I can vaguely envisage a wider scientist-led "select committee" style of hearing that interrogates SAGE members about their models and assumptions. A sort of peer review. But again its membership has to be selected carefully to avoid cranks, and I don't think it can operate in urgency.
--AS
But we have a French President who has set a course to rob us of vaccines.
Less wind and rain would make better weather, even if it was cooler.
So say 5 million for the UK as a whole...
And we've had 2.5 million first vaccinations since then.
It just never ends
The numbers will actually probably be better than that and we'll end up doing 550-600k per day and get through everyone a bit faster with a few big weeks when Moderna and Novavax arrive in larger quantities and the NHS has stockpiled enough Pfizer doses to restart the first doses programme for that too plus whatever AZ we can get.
Everyone knows that the unprecedented sunny weather last year was down to the libations I poured upon the altar of Apollo.
I tried offering him another bottle of plonk this year as well, but clearly the sacrifice was in vain. Apollo can be a most capricious god.
https://www.firstpost.com/india/indias-wockhardt-signs-pact-with-uk-to-guarantee-filling-packaging-of-purchased-covid-19-vaccines-8670261.html
This time it’s different!!
I understand the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles is free this coming weekend........
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1376274398047506432
Unionists certainly believe that Scotland is a substantial recipient.
Nationalists believe that Scotland is a net contributor.
Which is right? Does it matter? It isn't about what the truth is, its about what they believe and people will believe whichever they want to believe.
The truth will matter post-independence if that's voted for, but by then its too late.
Booked late on the first day things were open to over 50s, but Thursday/Friday slots looked tricky around work & life.
Only other scientists could have detected the errors in what was the groupthink of SAGE in Spring last year.
I don't think it is fair to expect politicians -- without much or any scientific training -- to ask the right questions when presented with modelling/statistical analyses.
Answer: we don't.
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376271204936519681
Kinabalu denied it would happen and said BAME was an excellent term
I then predicted that Kinabalu will pivot seamlessly from using-BAME to never-using-BAME, and that he would instantly start tutting at those dinosaur bigots who employ such a vulgar term.
And so he will
Don't let them take us down this road on the "it's only temporary guv" line.